Investigation of climate change impact on the optimal operation of koka reservoir, upper awash watershed, Ethiopia.

The objectives of this study were to predict the inflow and optimal operation of the Koka reservoir under the impact of climate change for the 2020s (2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070), and 2080s (2071-2100) with respect to the reference period (1981-2010). The optimal elevation, storage, and hydropower capacity were modeled using the HEC-ResPRM, whereas the inflow to Koka reservoir was simulated using the calibrated SWAT model. Based on the result, the average annual inflow of the reference period was 139.675 Million Cubic Meter (MCM). However, from 2011 to 2100 an increase of +4.179% to +11.694 is expected. The inflow analysis at different flow regimes shows that the high flow may decline by (-28.528%) to (-22.856%) due to climate change. On the other hand, the low flow is projected to increase by (+78.407%) to (+90.401%) as compared to the low flow of the reference period. Therefore, the impact of climate change on the inflow to the Koka reservoir is positive. The study also indicates that the optimum values of elevation and storage capacity of the Koka reservoir during the reference period were 1590.771 m above mean sea level (a.m.s.l) and 1860.818 MCM, respectively. However, the optimum level and storage capacity are expected to change by (-0.016%) to (-0.039%) and (-2.677%) to (+6.164%), respectively from 2020s to 2080s as compared with their corresponding values during the reference period. On the other hand, the optimum power capacity during the reference period was 16.489 MCM, while it will likely fluctuates between (-0.948%) - (+0.386%) in the face of climate change. The study shows that the optimum elevation, storage, and power capacity were all higher than the corresponding observed values. However, the occurrence month of their peak value will likely shift due to climate change. The study can be used as a first-hand information for the development of reservoir operation guidelines that can account for the uncertainty caused by the impacts of climate change.

Cyanobacteria and microcystins in Koka reservoir (Ethiopia).

The composition and abundance of cyanobacteria and their toxins, microcystins (MCs), and cylindrospermopsins (CYN) were investigated using samples collected at monthly intervals from the Amudde side of Koka Reservoir from May 2013 to April 2014. Cyanobacteria were the most abundant and persistent phytoplankton taxa with Microcystis and Cylindrospermopsis species alternately dominating the phytoplankton community of the reservoir and accounting for up to 84.3 and 11.9% of total cyanobacterial abundance, respectively. Analyses of cyanotoxins in filtered samples by HPLC-DAD and LC-MS/MS identified and quantified five variants of MCs (MC-LR, MC-YR, MC-RR, MC-dmLR, and MC-LA) in all samples, with their total concentrations ranging from 1.86 to 28.3 µg L-1 and from 1.71 to 33 µg L-1, respectively. Despite the presence and occasional abundance of Cylindrospermopsis sp., cylindrospermopsin was not detected. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that the environmental variables explained 82.7% of the total variance in cyanobacterial abundance and microcystin concentration. The presence of considerably high levels of MCs almost throughout the year represents a serious threat to public health and life of domestic and wild animals.

Concentrations of microcystins in the muscle and liver tissues of fish species from Koka reservoir, Ethiopia: A potential threat to public health.

Herein, we report the presence and concentrations of three most common variants of microcystin (MC-LR, -RR and -YR) in the liver and muscle tissues of wild Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), Common Carp (Cyprinus carpio) and African Sharp Tooth Catfish (Clarias gariepinus), which were collected from two study sites of the present study on Koka reservoir, Ethiopia. A total of 36 fish liver and 36 fish muscle samples were collected for six months. Microcystins (MCs) were quantified using LC-ESI-HRMS. The results show that MCs were found in most of the fish liver samples, while they were below the detection limit of the method of analysis used in the muscle samples. In addition to the three most common congeners of MCs, eight other microcystin variants and cylindrospermopsin were detected in the fish liver samples although further detailed study is needed. Among the three most common MC congeners, MC-LR was more prevalent than MC-RR and MC-YR in the liver samples of the three fish species. The highest MC concentration was found in Nile Tilapia collected in April (591.60 µg/g DW of MC-LR), whereas the lowest detected concentration was in Catfish collected in March (2.23 µg/g DW of MC-RR). The results of this study suggest that further intensive assessment and monitoring of the reservoir from different perspectives should be conducted in order to reduce the concentrations of the MCs and seek solutions to the potential public health risk. Moreover, this is the first study ever to report detailed quantification of MCs in fish liver and muscle samples collected from Ethiopia.