Crop yields fail to rise in smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa.

Drawing on a harmonized longitudinal dataset covering more than 55,000 smallholder farms in six African countries, we analyze changes in crop productivity from 2008 to 2019. Because smallholder farmers represent a significant fraction of the world's poorest people, agricultural productivity in this context matters for poverty reduction and for the broader achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Our analysis measures productivity trends for nationally representative samples of smallholder crop farmers, using detailed data on agricultural inputs and outputs which we integrate with detailed data on local weather and environmental conditions. In spite of government commitments and international efforts to strengthen African agriculture, we find no evidence that smallholder crop productivity improved over this 12-y period. Our preferred statistical specification of total factor productivity (TFP) suggests an overall decline in productivity of -3.5% per year. Various other models we test also find declining productivity in the overall sample, and none of them finds productivity growth. However, the different countries in our sample experienced varying trends, with some instances of growth in some regions. The results suggest that major challenges remain for agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa. They complement previous analyses that relied primarily on aggregate national statistics to measure agricultural productivity, rather than detailed microdata.

Productive scientists are associated with lower disruption in scientific publishing.

While scientific researchers often aim for high productivity, prioritizing the quantity of publications may come at the cost of time and effort dedicated to individual research. It is thus important to examine the relationship between productivity and disruption for individual researchers. Here, we show that with the increase in the number of published papers, the average citation per paper will be higher yet the mean disruption of papers will be lower. In addition, we find that the disruption of scientists' papers may decrease when they are highly productive in a given year. The disruption of papers in each year is not determined by the total number of papers published in the author's career, but rather by the productivity of that particular year. Besides, more productive authors also tend to give references to recent and high-impact research. Our findings highlight the potential risks of pursuing productivity and aim to encourage more thoughtful career planning among scientists.

Idea engines: Unifying innovation & obsolescence from markets & genetic evolution to science.

Innovation and obsolescence describe dynamics of ever-churning and adapting social and biological systems, concepts that encompass field-specific formulations. We formalize the connection with a reduced model of the dynamics of the "space of the possible" (e.g., technologies, mutations, theories) to which agents (e.g., firms, organisms, scientists) couple as they grow, die, and replicate. We predict three regimes: The space is finite, ever growing, or a Schumpeterian dystopia in which obsolescence drives the system to collapse. We reveal a critical boundary at which the space of the possible fluctuates dramatically in size, displaying recurrent periods of minimal and of veritable diversity. When the space is finite, corresponding to physically realizable systems, we find surprising structure. This structure predicts a taxonomy for the density of agents near and away from the innovative frontier that we compare with distributions of firm productivity, COVID diversity, and citation rates for scientific publications. Our minimal model derived from first principles aligns with empirical examples, implying a follow-the-leader dynamic in firm cost efficiency and biological evolution, whereas scientific progress reflects consensus that waits on old ideas to go obsolete. Our theory introduces a fresh and empirically testable framework for unifying innovation and obsolescence across fields.

Biodiversity and productivity in eastern US forests.

Despite experimental and observational studies demonstrating that biodiversity enhances primary productivity, the best metric for predicting productivity at broad geographic extents-functional trait diversity, phylogenetic diversity, or species richness-remains unknown. Using >1.8 million tree measurements from across eastern US forests, we quantified relationships among functional trait diversity, phylogenetic diversity, species richness, and productivity. Surprisingly, functional trait and phylogenetic diversity explained little variation in productivity that could not be explained by tree species richness. This result was consistent across the entire eastern United States, within ecoprovinces, and within data subsets that controlled for biomass or stand age. Metrics of functional trait and phylogenetic diversity that were independent of species richness were negatively correlated with productivity. This last result suggests that processes that determine species sorting and packing are likely important for the relationships between productivity and biodiversity. This result also demonstrates the potential confusion that can arise when interdependencies among different diversity metrics are ignored. Our findings show the value of species richness as a predictive tool and highlight gaps in knowledge about linkages between functional diversity and ecosystem functioning.

Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events-the most common duration of drought-globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function-aboveground net primary production (ANPP)-was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

Climate change determines the sign of productivity trends in US forests.

Forests are integral to the global land carbon sink, which has sequestered ~30% of anthropogenic carbon emissions over recent decades. The persistence of this sink depends on the balance of positive drivers that increase ecosystem carbon storage-e.g., CO2 fertilization-and negative drivers that decrease it-e.g., intensifying disturbances. The net response of forest productivity to these drivers is uncertain due to the challenge of separating their effects from background disturbance-regrowth dynamics. We fit non-linear models to US forest inventory data (113,806 plot remeasurements in non-plantation forests from ~1999 to 2020) to quantify productivity trends while accounting for stand age, tree mortality, and harvest. Productivity trends were generally positive in the eastern United States, where climate change has been mild, and negative in the western United States, where climate change has been more severe. Productivity declines in the western United States cannot be explained by increased mortality or harvest; these declines likely reflect adverse climate-change impacts on tree growth. In the eastern United States, where data were available to partition biomass change into age-dependent and age-independent components, forest maturation and increasing productivity (likely due, at least in part, to CO2 fertilization) contributed roughly equally to biomass carbon sinks. Thus, adverse effects of climate change appear to overwhelm any positive drivers in the water-limited forests of the western United States, whereas forest maturation and positive responses to age-independent drivers contribute to eastern US carbon sinks. The future land carbon balance of forests will likely depend on the geographic extent of drought and heat stress.

The evolution of sex roles: The importance of ecology and social environment.

Males and females often have different roles in reproduction, although the origin of these differences has remained controversial. Explaining the enigmatic reversed sex roles where males sacrifice their mating potential and provide full parental care is a particularly long-standing challenge in evolutionary biology. While most studies focused on ecological factors as the drivers of sex roles, recent research highlights the significance of social factors such as the adult sex ratio. To disentangle these propositions, here, we investigate the additive and interactive effects of several ecological and social factors on sex role variation using shorebirds (sandpipers, plovers, and allies) as model organisms that provide the full spectrum of sex role variation including some of the best-known examples of sex-role reversal. Our results consistently show that social factors play a prominent role in driving sex roles. Importantly, we show that reversed sex roles are associated with both male-skewed adult sex ratios and high breeding densities. Furthermore, phylogenetic path analyses provide general support for sex ratios driving sex role variations rather than being a consequence of sex roles. Together, these important results open future research directions by showing that different mating opportunities of males and females play a major role in generating the evolutionary diversity of sex roles, mating system, and parental care.

Industrial-era decline in Arctic methanesulfonic acid is offset by increased biogenic sulfate aerosol.

Marine phytoplankton are primary producers in ocean ecosystems and emit dimethyl sulfide (DMS) into the atmosphere. DMS emissions are the largest biological source of atmospheric sulfur and are one of the largest uncertainties in global climate modeling. DMS is oxidized to methanesulfonic acid (MSA), sulfur dioxide, and hydroperoxymethyl thioformate, all of which can be oxidized to sulfate. Ice core records of MSA are used to investigate past DMS emissions but rely on the implicit assumption that the relative yield of oxidation products from DMS remains constant. However, this assumption is uncertain because there are no long-term records that compare MSA to other DMS oxidation products. Here, we share the first long-term record of both MSA and DMS-derived biogenic sulfate concentration in Greenland ice core samples from 1200 to 2006 CE. While MSA declines on average by 0.2 µg S kg-1 over the industrial era, biogenic sulfate from DMS increases by 0.8 µg S kg-1. This increasing biogenic sulfate contradicts previous assertions of declining North Atlantic primary productivity inferred from decreasing MSA concentrations in Greenland ice cores over the industrial era. The changing ratio of MSA to biogenic sulfate suggests that trends in MSA could be caused by time-varying atmospheric chemistry and that MSA concentrations alone should not be used to infer past primary productivity.

The weekly cycle of photosynthesis in Europe reveals the negative impact of particulate pollution on ecosystem productivity.

Aerosols can affect photosynthesis through radiative perturbations such as scattering and absorbing solar radiation. This biophysical impact has been widely studied using field measurements, but the sign and magnitude at continental scales remain uncertain. Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), emitted by chlorophyll, strongly correlates with photosynthesis. With recent advancements in Earth observation satellites, we leverage SIF observations from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) with unprecedented spatial resolution and near-daily global coverage, to investigate the impact of aerosols on photosynthesis. Our analysis reveals that on weekends when there is more plant-available sunlight due to less particulate pollution, 64% of regions across Europe show increased SIF, indicating more photosynthesis. Moreover, we find a widespread negative relationship between SIF and aerosol loading across Europe. This suggests the possible reduction in photosynthesis as aerosol levels increase, particularly in ecosystems limited by light availability. By considering two plausible scenarios of improved air quality-reducing aerosol levels to the weekly minimum 3-d values and levels observed during the COVID-19 period-we estimate a potential of 41 to 50 Mt net additional annual CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems in Europe. This work assesses human impacts on photosynthesis via aerosol pollution at continental scales using satellite observations. Our results highlight i) the use of spatiotemporal variations in satellite SIF to estimate the human impacts on photosynthesis and ii) the potential of reducing particulate pollution to enhance ecosystem productivity.

The productive performance of intercropping.

Crop diversification has been put forward as a way to reduce the environmental impact of agriculture without penalizing its productivity. In this context, intercropping, the planned combination of two or more crop species in one field, is a promising practice. On an average, intercropping saves land compared with the component sole crops, but it remains unclear whether intercropping produces a higher yield than the most productive single crop per unit area, i.e., whether intercropping achieves transgressive overyielding. Here, we quantified the performance of intercropping for the production of grain, calories, and protein in a global meta-analysis of several production indices. The results show that intercrops outperform sole crops when the objective is to achieve a diversity of crop products on a given land area. However, when intercropping is evaluated for its ability to produce raw products without concern for diversity, intercrops on average generate a small loss in grain or calorie yield compared with the most productive sole crop (-4%) but achieve similar or higher protein yield, especially with maize/legume combinations grown at moderate N supply. Overall, although intercropping does not achieve transgressive overyielding on average, our results show that intercropping performs well in producing a diverse set of crop products and performs almost similar to the most productive component sole crop to produce raw products, while improving crop resilience, enhancing ecosystem services, and improving nutrient use efficiency. Our study, therefore, confirms the great interest of intercropping for the development of a more sustainable agricultural production, supporting diversified diets.

Mid-Pleistocene links between Asian dust, Tibetan glaciers, and Pacific iron fertilization.

Increasing Asian dust fluxes, associated with late Cenozoic cooling and intensified glaciations, are conventionally thought to drive iron fertilization of phytoplankton productivity in the North Pacific, contributing to ocean carbon storage and drawdown of atmospheric CO2. During the early Pleistocene glaciations, however, productivity remained low despite higher Asian dust fluxes, only displaying glacial stage increases after the mid-Pleistocene climate transition (~800 ka B.P.). We solve this paradox by analyzing an Asian dust sequence, spanning the last 3.6 My, from the Tarim Basin, identifying a major switch in the iron composition of the dust at ~800 ka, associated with expansion of Tibetan glaciers and enhanced production of freshly ground rock minerals. This compositional shift in the Asian dust was recorded synchronously in the downwind, deep sea sediments of the central North Pacific. The switch from desert dust, containing stable, highly oxidized iron, to glacial dust, richer in reactive reduced iron, coincided with increased populations of silica-producing phytoplankton in the equatorial North Pacific and increased primary productivity in more northerly locations, such as the South China Sea. We calculate that potentially bioavailable Fe2+ flux to the North Pacific was more than doubled after the switch to glacially- sourced dust. These findings indicate a positive feedback between Tibetan glaciations, glaciogenic production of dust with enhanced iron bioavailability, and changes in North Pacific iron fertilization. Notably, this strengthened link between climate and eolian dust coincided with the mid-Pleistocene transition to increased storage of C in the glacial North Pacific and more intense northern hemisphere glaciations.

Kinetic modeling identifies targets for engineering improved photosynthetic efficiency in potato (Solanum tuberosum cv. Solara).

Potato (Solanum tuberosum) is a significant non-grain food crop in terms of global production. However, its yield potential might be raised by identifying means to release bottlenecks within photosynthetic metabolism, from the capture of solar energy to the synthesis of carbohydrates. Recently, engineered increases in photosynthetic rates in other crops have been directly related to increased yield - how might such increases be achieved in potato? To answer this question, we derived the photosynthetic parameters Vcmax and Jmax to calibrate a kinetic model of leaf metabolism (e-Photosynthesis) for potato. This model was then used to simulate the impact of manipulating the expression of genes and their protein products on carbon assimilation rates in silico through optimizing resource investment among 23 photosynthetic enzymes, predicting increases in photosynthetic CO2 uptake of up to 67%. However, this number of manipulations would not be practical with current technologies. Given a limited practical number of manipulations, the optimization indicated that an increase in amounts of three enzymes - Rubisco, FBP aldolase, and SBPase - would increase net assimilation. Increasing these alone to the levels predicted necessary for optimization increased photosynthetic rate by 28% in potato.

Phylogenetic Biodiversity Metrics Should Account for Both Accumulation and Attrition of Evolutionary Heritage.

Phylogenetic metrics are essential tools used in the study of ecology, evolution and conservation. Phylogenetic diversity (PD) in particular is one of the most prominent measures of biodiversity and is based on the idea that biological features accumulate along the edges of phylogenetic trees that are summed. We argue that PD and many other phylogenetic biodiversity metrics fail to capture an essential process that we term attrition. Attrition is the gradual loss of features through causes other than extinction. Here we introduce "EvoHeritage", a generalization of PD that is founded on the joint processes of accumulation and attrition of features. We argue that while PD measures evolutionary history, EvoHeritage is required to capture a more pertinent subset of evolutionary history including only components that have survived attrition. We show that EvoHeritage is not the same as PD on a tree with scaled edges; instead, accumulation and attrition interact in a more complex non-monophyletic way that cannot be captured by edge lengths alone. This leads us to speculate that the one-dimensional edge lengths of classic trees may be insufficiently flexible to capture the nuances of evolutionary processes. We derive a measure of EvoHeritage and show that it elegantly reproduces species richness and PD at opposite ends of a continuum based on the intensity of attrition. We demonstrate the utility of EvoHeritage in ecology as a predictor of community productivity compared with species richness and PD. We also show how EvoHeritage can quantify living fossils and resolve their associated controversy. We suggest how the existing calculus of PD-based metrics and other phylogenetic biodiversity metrics can and should be recast in terms of EvoHeritage accumulation and attrition.

Farm vehicles approaching weights of sauropods exceed safe mechanical limits for soil functioning.

Mechanization has greatly contributed to the success of modern agriculture, with vastly expanded food production capabilities achieved by the higher capacity of farm machinery. However, the increase in capacity has been accompanied by higher vehicle weights that increase risks of subsoil compaction. We show here that while surface contact stresses remained nearly constant over the course of modern mechanization, subsoil stresses have propagated into deeper soil layers and now exceed safe mechanical limits for soil ecological functioning. We developed a global map for delineating subsoil compaction susceptibility based on estimates of mechanization level, mean tractor size, soil texture, and climatic conditions. The alarming trend of chronic subsoil compaction risk over 20% of arable land, with potential loss of productivity, calls for a more stringent design of farm machinery that considers intrinsic subsoil mechanical limits. As the total weight of modern harvesters is now approaching that of the largest animals that walked Earth, the sauropods, a paradox emerges of potential prehistoric subsoil compaction. We hypothesize that unconstrained roaming of sauropods would have had similar adverse effects on land productivity as modern farm vehicles, suggesting that ecological strategies for reducing subsoil compaction, including fixed foraging trails, must have guided these prehistoric giants.

Assessing the roles of nitrogen, biomass, and niche dimensionality as drivers of species loss in grassland communities.

Eutrophication is a major driver of species loss in plant communities worldwide. However, the underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon are controversial. Previous studies have raised three main explanations: 1) High levels of soil resources increase standing biomass, thereby intensifying competitive interactions (the "biomass-driven competition hypothesis"). 2) High levels of soil resources reduce the potential for resource-based niche partitioning (the "niche dimension hypothesis"). 3) Increasing soil nitrogen causes stress by changing the abiotic or biotic conditions (the "nitrogen detriment hypothesis"). Despite several syntheses of resource addition experiments, so far, no study has tested all of the hypotheses together. This is a major shortcoming, since the mechanisms underlying the three hypotheses are not independent. Here, we conduct a simultaneous test of the three hypotheses by integrating data from 630 resource addition experiments located in 99 sites worldwide. Our results provide strong support for the nitrogen detriment hypothesis, weaker support for the biomass-driven competition hypothesis, and negligible support for the niche dimension hypothesis. The results further show that the indirect effect of nitrogen through its effect on biomass is minor compared to its direct effect and is much larger than that of all other resources (phosphorus, potassium, and water). Thus, we conclude that nitrogen-specific mechanisms are more important than biomass or niche dimensionality as drivers of species loss under high levels of soil resources. This conclusion is highly relevant for future attempts to reduce biodiversity loss caused by global eutrophication.

Prevalence and drivers of abrupt vegetation shifts in global drylands.

The constant provision of plant productivity is integral to supporting the liability of ecosystems and human wellbeing in global drylands. Drylands are paradigmatic examples of systems prone to experiencing abrupt changes in their functioning. Indeed, space-for-time substitution approaches suggest that abrupt changes in plant productivity are widespread, but this evidence is less clear using observational time series or experimental data at a large scale. Studying the prevalence and, most importantly, the unknown drivers of abrupt (rather than gradual) dynamical patterns in drylands may help to unveil hotspots of current and future dynamical instabilities in drylands. Using a 20-y global satellite-derived temporal assessment of dryland Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), we show that 50% of all dryland ecosystems exhibiting gains or losses of NDVI are characterized by abrupt positive/negative temporal dynamics. We further show that abrupt changes are more common among negative than positive NDVI trends and can be found in global regions suffering recent droughts, particularly around critical aridity thresholds. Positive abrupt dynamics are found most in ecosystems with low seasonal variability or high aridity. Our work unveils the high importance of climate variability on triggering abrupt shifts in vegetation and it provides missing evidence of increasing abruptness in systems intensively managed by humans, with low soil organic carbon contents, or around specific aridity thresholds. These results highlight that abrupt changes in dryland dynamics are very common, especially for productivity losses, pinpoint global hotspots of dryland vulnerability, and identify drivers that could be targeted for effective dryland management.

Biodiversity: Net primary productivity relationships are eliminated by invasive species dominance.

Experiments often find that net primary productivity (NPP) increases with species richness when native species are considered. However, relationships may be altered by exotic (non-native) species, which are hypothesized to reduce richness but increase productivity (i.e., 'invasion-diversity-productivity paradox'). We compared richness-NPP relationships using a comparison of exotic versus native-dominated sites across the central USA, and two experiments under common environments. Aboveground NPP was measured using peak biomass clipping in all three studies, and belowground NPP was measured in one study with root ingrowth cores using root-free soil. In all studies, there was a significantly positive relationship between NPP and richness across native species-dominated sites and plots, but no relationship across exotic-dominated ones. These results indicate that relationships between NPP and richness depend on whether native or exotic species are dominant, and that exotic species are 'breaking the rules', altering richness-productivity and richness-C stock relationships after invasion.

Thermal limits of survival and reproduction depend on stress duration: A case study of Drosophila suzukii.

Studies of ectotherm responses to heat extremes often rely on assessing absolute critical limits for heat coma or death (CTmax), however, such single parameter metrics ignore the importance of stress exposure duration. Furthermore, population persistence may be affected at temperatures considerably below CTmax through decreased reproductive output. Here we investigate the relationship between tolerance duration and severity of heat stress across three ecologically relevant life-history traits (productivity, coma and mortality) using the global agricultural pest Drosophila suzukii. For the first time, we show that for sublethal reproductive traits, tolerance duration decreases exponentially with increasing temperature (R2 > 0.97), thereby extending the Thermal Death Time framework recently developed for mortality and coma. Using field micro-environmental temperatures, we show how thermal stress can lead to considerable reproductive loss at temperatures with limited heat mortality highlighting the importance of including limits to reproductive performance in ecological studies of heat stress vulnerability.

Soil and Mineral Nutrients in Plant Health: A Prospective Study of Iron and Phosphorus in the Growth and Development of Plants.

Plants being sessile are exposed to different environmental challenges and consequent stresses associated with them. With the prerequisite of minerals for growth and development, they coordinate their mobilization from the soil through their roots. Phosphorus (P) and iron (Fe) are macro- and micronutrient; P serves as an important component of biological macromolecules, besides driving major cellular processes, including photosynthesis and respiration, and Fe performs the function as a cofactor for enzymes of vital metabolic pathways. These minerals help in maintaining plant vigor via alterations in the pH, nutrient content, release of exudates at the root surface, changing dynamics of root microbial population, and modulation of the activity of redox enzymes. Despite this, their low solubility and relative immobilization in soil make them inaccessible for utilization by plants. Moreover, plants have evolved distinct mechanisms to cope with these stresses and coregulate the levels of minerals (Fe, P, etc.) toward the maintenance of homeostasis. The present study aims at examining the uptake mechanisms of Fe and P, and their translocation, storage, and role in executing different cellular processes in plants. It also summarizes the toxicological aspects of these minerals in terms of their effects on germination, nutrient uptake, plant-water relationship, and overall yield. Considered as an important and indispensable component of sustainable agriculture, a separate section covers the current knowledge on the cross-talk between Fe and P and integrates complete and balanced information of their effect on plant hormone levels.

Optimizing wheat productivity through integrated management of irrigation, nutrition, and organic amendments.

Enhancing wheat productivity by implementing a comprehensive approach that combines irrigation, nutrition, and organic amendments shows potential for collectively enhancing crop performance. This study examined the individual and combined effects of using irrigation systems (IS), foliar potassium bicarbonate (PBR) application, and compost application methods (CM) on nine traits related to the growth, physiology, and yield of the Giza-171 wheat cultivar. Analysis of variance revealed significant (P ≤ 0.05) main effects of IS, PBR, and CM on wheat growth, physiology, and yield traits over the two growing seasons of the study. Drip irrigation resulted in a 16% increase in plant height, leaf area index, crop growth rate, yield components, and grain yield compared to spray irrigation. Additionally, the application of foliar PBR at a concentration of 0.08 g/L boosted these parameters by up to 22% compared to the control. Furthermore, the application of compost using the role method resulted in enhanced wheat performance compared to the treatment including mix application. Importantly, the combined analysis revealed that the three-way interaction between the three factors had a significant effect (P ≤ 0.05) on all the studied traits, with drip irrigation at 0.08 g PBR rate and role compost application method (referred as Drip_0.08g_Role) resulting in the best performance across all traits, while sprinkle irrigation without PBR and conventional mixed compost method (referred as sprinkle_CK_Mix) produced the poorest results. This highlights the potential to synergistically improve wheat performance through optimized agronomic inputs.