Genomic Insights into Zika Virus Emergence and Spread.

The emergence and spread of Zika virus in the Americas continues to challenge our disease surveillance systems. Virus genome sequencing during the epidemic uncovered the timescale of Zika virus transmission and spread. Yet, we are only beginning to explore how genomics can enhance our responses to emerging viruses.

Forging Collaborative Relationships in Brazil: From AIDS to ZIKV.

The Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak has stimulated collaborations between Brazilians, researchers from other South American countries, and scientists from around the world. The Brazilian response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic demonstrates capabilities that can be applied to the study of ZIKV and provides lessons for developing effective international infectious disease research collaborations.

Redefining the treponemal history through pre-Columbian genomes from Brazil.

The origins of treponemal diseases have long remained unknown, especially considering the sudden onset of the first syphilis epidemic in the late 15th century in Europe and its hypothesized arrival from the Americas with Columbus' expeditions1,2. Recently, ancient DNA evidence has revealed various treponemal infections circulating in early modern Europe and colonial-era Mexico3-6. However, there has been to our knowledge no genomic evidence of treponematosis recovered from either the Americas or the Old World that can be reliably dated to the time before the first trans-Atlantic contacts. Here, we present treponemal genomes from nearly 2,000-year-old human remains from Brazil. We reconstruct four ancient genomes of a prehistoric treponemal pathogen, most closely related to the bejel-causing agent Treponema pallidum endemicum. Contradicting the modern day geographical niche of bejel in the arid regions of the world, the results call into question the previous palaeopathological characterization of treponeme subspecies and showcase their adaptive potential. A high-coverage genome is used to improve molecular clock date estimations, placing the divergence of modern T. pallidum subspecies firmly in pre-Columbian times. Overall, our study demonstrates the opportunities within archaeogenetics to uncover key events in pathogen evolution and emergence, paving the way to new hypotheses on the origin and spread of treponematoses.

A large net carbon loss attributed to anthropogenic and natural disturbances in the Amazon Arc of Deforestation.

The Amazon forest contains globally important carbon stocks, but in recent years, atmospheric measurements suggest that it has been releasing more carbon than it has absorbed because of deforestation and forest degradation. Accurately attributing the sources of carbon loss to forest degradation and natural disturbances remains a challenge because of the difficulty of classifying disturbances and simultaneously estimating carbon changes. We used a unique, randomized, repeated, very high-resolution airborne laser scanning survey to provide a direct, detailed, and high-resolution partitioning of aboveground carbon gains and losses in the Brazilian Arc of Deforestation. Our analysis revealed that disturbances directly attributed to human activity impacted 4.2% of the survey area while windthrows and other disturbances affected 2.7% and 14.7%, respectively. Extrapolating the lidar-based statistics to the study area (544,300 km2), we found that 24.1, 24.2, and 14.5 Tg C y-1 were lost through clearing, fires, and logging, respectively. The losses due to large windthrows (21.5 Tg C y-1) and other disturbances (50.3 Tg C y-1) were partially counterbalanced by forest growth (44.1 Tg C y-1). Our high-resolution estimates demonstrated a greater loss of carbon through forest degradation than through deforestation and a net loss of carbon of 90.5 ± 16.6 Tg C y-1 for the study region attributable to both anthropogenic and natural processes. This study highlights the role of forest degradation in the carbon balance for this critical region in the Earth system.

Ecological change increases malaria risk in the Brazilian Amazon.

Ecological change in the Brazilian Amazon is closely linked to human mobility and health. Mining, agriculture, logging, and other activities alter highly diverse ecological and demographic contexts and subsequent exposure to diseases such as malaria. Studies that have attempted to quantify the impact of deforestation on malaria in the Brazilian Amazon have produced conflicting results. However, they varied in methodology and data sources. Most importantly, all studies used annual data, neglecting the subannual seasonal dynamics of malaria. Here, we fill the knowledge gap on the subannual relationship between ecological change in the Brazilian Amazon and malaria transmission. Using the highest spatiotemporal resolution available, we estimated the effect of deforestation on malaria cases between 2003 and 2022 using a stratified Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchical zero-inflated Poisson model fitted with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. The model was also stratified by state. We found that a 1% increase in 1-mo lagged deforestation increased malaria cases in a given month and municipality by 6.3% [95% credible interval (Crl): 6.2, 6.5%]. Based on an interaction term included in the model, the effect of deforestation on malaria was even larger in areas with higher forest cover. We found that the coefficients for deforestation and mobility were highly variable when stratified by state. Our results provide detailed evidence that, on average, deforestation increases malaria transmission, but that the relationship is not spatiotemporally uniform. These results have implications for stratifying malaria control interventions based on ecological dynamics to help Brazil achieve its goal of malaria elimination by 2035.

The lasting impacts of remote learning in the absence of remedial policies: Evidence from Brazil.

The transition to remote learning in the context of COVID-19 led to dramatic setbacks in education. Is the return to in-person classes sufficient to eliminate these losses eventually? We study this question using data from the universe of secondary students in São Paulo State, Brazil. We estimate the causal medium-run impacts of the length of exposure to remote learning during the pandemic through a triple-differences strategy, which contrasts changes in educational outcomes across municipalities and grades that resumed in-person classes earlier (already by Q4/2020) or only in 2021. We find that relative learning losses from longer exposure to remote learning did not fade out over time-attesting that school reopening was at the same time key but not enough to mitigate accumulated learning losses in face of persistence. Using observational and experimental variation in local responses across 645 municipalities, we further document that remedial educational policies in the aftermath of the pandemic boosted learning recovery.

Agricultural intensification and childhood cancer in Brazil.

Over the last several decades, Brazil has become both the world's leading soy producer and the world's leading consumer of hazardous pesticides. Despite identified links between pesticide exposure and carcinogenesis, there has been little population-level research on the effects of pesticide intensification on broader human health in Brazil. We estimate the relationship between expanded soy production-and related community exposure to pesticides-on childhood cancer incidence using 15 y of data on disease mortality. We find a statistically significant increase in pediatric leukemia following expanded local soy production, but timely access to treatment mitigates this relationship. We show that pesticide exposure likely occurs via water supply penetration. Our findings represent only the tip of the iceberg for substantial health externalities of high-input crop production and land use change. Our results are of particular interest in developing contexts with demand for intensified food production systems and underscore the need for stronger regulation of pesticides and increased public health attention to exposure in the broader community.

Rates and causes of death after release from incarceration among 1 471 526 people in eight high-income and middle-income countries: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Formerly incarcerated people have exceptionally poor health profiles and are at increased risk of preventable mortality when compared with their general population peers. However, not enough is known about the epidemiology of mortality in this population-specifically the rates, causes, and timing of death in specific subgroups and regions-to inform the development of targeted, evidence-based responses. We aimed to document the incidence, timing, causes, and risk factors for mortality after release from incarceration. METHODS: We analysed linked administrative data from the multi-national Mortality After Release from Incarceration Consortium (MARIC) study. We examined mortality outcomes for 1 471 526 people released from incarceration in eight countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Scotland, Sweden, and the USA) from 1980 to 2018, across 10 534 441 person-years of follow-up (range 0-24 years per person). We combined data from 18 cohort studies using two-step individual participant data meta-analyses to estimate pooled all-cause and cause-specific crude mortality rates (CMRs) per 100 000 person-years, for specific time periods (first, daily from days 1-14; second, weekly from weeks 3-12; third, weeks 13-52 combined; fourth, weeks 53 and over combined; and fifth, total follow-up) after release, overall and stratified by age, sex, and region. FINDINGS: 75 427 deaths were recorded. The all-cause CMR during the first week following release (1612 [95% CI 1048-2287]) was higher than during all other time periods (incidence rate ratio [IRR] compared with week 2: 1·5 [95% CI 1·2-1·8], I2=26·0%, weeks 3-4: 2·0 [1·5-2·6], I2=53·0%, and weeks 9-12: 2·2 [1·6-3·0], I2=70·5%). The highest cause-specific mortality rates during the first week were due to alcohol and other drug poisoning (CMR 657 [95% CI 332-1076]), suicide (135 [36-277]), and cardiovascular disease (71 [16-153]). We observed considerable variation in cause-specific CMRs over time since release and across regions. Pooled all-cause CMRs were similar between males (731 [95% CI 630-839]) and females (660 [560-767]) and were higher in older age groups. INTERPRETATION: The markedly elevated rate of death in the first week post-release underscores an urgent need for investment in evidence-based, coordinated transitional healthcare, including treatment for mental illness and substance use disorders to prevent post-release deaths due to suicide and overdose. Temporal variations in rates and causes of death highlight the need for routine monitoring of post-release mortality. FUNDING: Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council.

Mortality from Congenital Zika Syndrome - Nationwide Cohort Study in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to Zika virus has potential teratogenic effects, with a wide spectrum of clinical presentation referred to as congenital Zika syndrome. Data on survival among children with congenital Zika syndrome are limited. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we used linked, routinely collected data in Brazil, from January 2015 through December 2018, to estimate mortality among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome as compared with those without the syndrome. Kaplan-Meier curves and survival models were assessed with adjustment for confounding and with stratification according to gestational age, birth weight, and status of being small for gestational age. RESULTS: A total of 11,481,215 live-born children were followed to 36 months of age. The mortality rate was 52.6 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 47.6 to 58.0) per 1000 person-years among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome, as compared with 5.6 deaths (95% CI, 5.6 to 5.7) per 1000 person-years among those without the syndrome. The mortality rate ratio among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome, as compared with those without the syndrome, was 11.3 (95% CI, 10.2 to 12.4). Among infants born before 32 weeks of gestation or with a birth weight of less than 1500 g, the risks of death were similar regardless of congenital Zika syndrome status. Among infants born at term, those with congenital Zika syndrome were 14.3 times (95% CI, 12.4 to 16.4) as likely to die as those without the syndrome (mortality rate, 38.4 vs. 2.7 deaths per 1000 person-years). Among infants with a birth weight of 2500 g or greater, those with congenital Zika syndrome were 12.9 times (95% CI, 10.9 to 15.3) as likely to die as those without the syndrome (mortality rate, 32.6 vs. 2.5 deaths per 1000 person-years). The burden of congenital anomalies, diseases of the nervous system, and infectious diseases as recorded causes of deaths was higher among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome than among those without the syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of death was higher among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome than among those without the syndrome and persisted throughout the first 3 years of life. (Funded by the Ministry of Health of Brazil and others.).

Dynamics of Salmonella enterica and antimicrobial resistance in the Brazilian poultry industry and global impacts on public health.

Non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica is a common cause of diarrhoeal disease; in humans, consumption of contaminated poultry meat is believed to be a major source. Brazil is the world's largest exporter of chicken meat globally, and previous studies have indicated the introduction of Salmonella serovars through imported food products from Brazil. Here we provide an in-depth genomic characterisation and evolutionary analysis to investigate the most prevalent serovars and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Brazilian chickens and assess the impact to public health of products contaminated with S. enterica imported into the United Kingdom from Brazil. To do so, we examine 183 Salmonella genomes from chickens in Brazil and 357 genomes from humans, domestic poultry and imported Brazilian poultry products isolated in the United Kingdom. S. enterica serovars Heidelberg and Minnesota were the most prevalent serovars in Brazil and in meat products imported from Brazil into the UK. We extended our analysis to include 1,259 publicly available Salmonella Heidelberg and Salmonella Minnesota genomes for context. The Brazil genomes form clades distinct from global isolates, with temporal analysis suggesting emergence of these Salmonella Heidelberg and Salmonella Minnesota clades in the early 2000s, around the time of the 2003 introduction of the Enteritidis vaccine in Brazilian poultry. Analysis showed genomes within the Salmonella Heidelberg and Salmonella Minnesota clades shared resistance to sulphonamides, tetracyclines and beta-lactams conferred by sul2, tetA and blaCMY-2 genes, not widely observed in other co-circulating serovars despite similar selection pressures. The sul2 and tetA genes were concomitantly carried on IncC plasmids, whereas blaCMY-2 was either co-located with the sul2 and tetA genes on IncC plasmids or independently on IncI1 plasmids. Long-term surveillance data collected in the UK showed no increase in the incidence of Salmonella Heidelberg or Salmonella Minnesota in human cases of clinical disease in the UK following the increase of these two serovars in Brazilian poultry. In addition, almost all of the small number of UK-derived genomes which cluster with the Brazilian poultry-derived sequences could either be attributed to human cases with a recent history of foreign travel or were from imported Brazilian food products. These findings indicate that even should Salmonella from imported Brazilian poultry products reach UK consumers, they are very unlikely to be causing disease. No evidence of the Brazilian strains of Salmonella Heidelberg or Salmonella Minnesota were observed in UK domestic chickens. These findings suggest that introduction of the Salmonella Enteritidis vaccine, in addition to increasing antimicrobial use, could have resulted in replacement of salmonellae in Brazilian poultry flocks with serovars that are more drug resistant, but less associated with disease in humans in the UK. The plasmids conferring resistance to beta-lactams, sulphonamides and tetracyclines likely conferred a competitive advantage to the Salmonella Minnesota and Salmonella Heidelberg serovars in this setting of high antimicrobial use, but the apparent lack of transfer to other serovars present in the same setting suggests barriers to horizontal gene transfer that could be exploited in intervention strategies to reduce AMR. The insights obtained reinforce the importance of One Health genomic surveillance.

Changing Clinical Epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax Malaria as Transmission Decreases: Population-Based Prospective Panel Survey in the Brazilian Amazon.

BACKGROUND: Malarial infections are often missed by microscopy, and most parasite carriers are asymptomatic in low-endemicity settings. Whether parasite detectability and its ability to elicit symptoms change as transmission declines remains unclear. METHODS: We performed a prospective panel survey with repeated measurements on the same participants over 12 months to investigate whether Plasmodium vivax detectability by microscopy and risk of symptoms upon infection varied during a community-wide larviciding intervention in the Amazon basin of Brazil that markedly reduced vector density. We screened 1096 to 1400 residents in the intervention site for malaria by microscopy and quantitative TaqMan assays at baseline and twice during intervention. RESULTS: We found that more P vivax infections than expected from their parasite densities measured by TaqMan assays were missed by microscopy as transmission decreased. At lower transmission, study participants appeared to tolerate higher P vivax loads without developing symptoms. We hypothesize that changes in the ratio between circulating parasites and those that accumulate in the bone marrow and spleen, by avoiding peripheral blood microscopy detection, account for decreased parasite detectability and lower risk of symptoms under low transmission. CONCLUSIONS: P vivax infections are more likely to be subpatent and remain asymptomatic as malaria transmission decreases.

Levels of Angiopoietin 2 Are Predictive for Mortality in Patients Infected With Yellow Fever Virus.

In 2018 there was a large yellow fever outbreak in São Paulo, Brazil, with a high fatality rate. Yellow fever virus can cause, among other symptoms, hemorrhage and disseminated intravascular coagulation, indicating a role for endothelial cells in disease pathogenesis. Here, we conducted a case-control study and measured markers related to endothelial damage in plasma and its association with mortality. We found that angiopoietin 2 is strongly associated with a fatal outcome and could serve as a predictive marker for mortality. This could be used to monitor severe cases and provide care to improve disease outcome.

Prediction Models for Adverse Drug Reactions During Tuberculosis Treatment in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) treatment-related adverse drug reactions (TB-ADRs) can negatively affect adherence and treatment success rates. METHODS: We developed prediction models for TB-ADRs, considering participants with drug-susceptible pulmonary TB who initiated standard TB therapy. TB-ADRs were determined by the physician attending the participant, assessing causality to TB drugs, the affected organ system, and grade. Potential baseline predictors of TB-ADR included concomitant medication (CM) use, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), age, body mass index (BMI), sex, substance use, and TB drug metabolism variables (NAT2 acetylator profiles). The models were developed through bootstrapped backward selection. Cox regression was used to evaluate TB-ADR risk. RESULTS: There were 156 TB-ADRs among 102 of the 945 (11%) participants included. Most TB-ADRs were hepatic (n = 82 [53%]), of moderate severity (grade 2; n = 121 [78%]), and occurred in NAT2 slow acetylators (n = 62 [61%]). The main prediction model included CM use, HbA1c, alcohol use, HIV seropositivity, BMI, and age, with robust performance (c-statistic = 0.79 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .74-.83) and fit (optimism-corrected slope and intercept of -0.09 and 0.94, respectively). An alternative model replacing BMI with NAT2 had similar performance. HIV seropositivity (hazard ratio [HR], 2.68 [95% CI, 1.75-4.09]) and CM use (HR, 5.26 [95% CI, 2.63-10.52]) increased TB-ADR risk. CONCLUSIONS: The models, with clinical variables and with NAT2, were highly predictive of TB-ADRs.

Estimated Population-Level Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines Against All-Cause Pneumonia Mortality Among Unvaccinated in 5 Latin American Countries.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) provide strong direct protection in children, while limited data are available on their indirect effect on mortality among older age groups. This multicountry study aimed to assess the population-level impact of pediatric PCVs on all-cause pneumonia mortality among children ≥5 years of age, and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases in Chile. METHODS: Demographic and mortality data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico were collected considering the ≥ 5-year-old population, from 2000 to 2019, with 1 795 789 deaths due to all-cause pneumonia. IPD cases in Chile were also evaluated. Time series models were employed to evaluate changes in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the postvaccination period, with other causes of death used as synthetic controls for unrelated temporal trends. RESULTS: No significant change in death rates due to all-cause pneumonia was detected following PCV introduction among most age groups and countries. The proportion of IPD cases caused by vaccine serotypes decreased from 29% (2012) to 6% (2022) among people aged ≥65 years in Chile. DISCUSSION: While an effect of PCV against pneumonia deaths (a broad clinical definition that may not be specific enough to measure indirect effects) was not detected, evidence of indirect PCV impact was observed among vaccine-type-specific IPD cases.

Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 and Seasonal Viruses Among 2 Million Adults Hospitalized for Severe Acute Respiratory Infection During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the circulation of seasonal respiratory viruses. This study aimed to compare the outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal viruses in adults hospitalized with severe acute respiratory infection during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This population-based cohort study included patients aged >18 years hospitalized for severe acute respiratory infection in Brazil between February 2020 and February 2023. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. A competing risk analysis was used to account for competing events. RESULTS: In total, 2 159 171 patients were included in the study. SARS-CoV-2 was the predominant virus (98.7%). Among patients testing positive, the cumulative incidence of in-hospital mortality was 33.1% for SARS-CoV-2, 31.5% for adenovirus, 21.0% for respiratory syncytial virus, 18.7% for influenza, and 18.6% for other viruses. SARS-CoV-2 accounted for 99.3% of the deaths. Older age, male sex, comorbidities, hospitalization in the northern region, and oxygen saturation <95% were the common risk factors for death among all viruses. CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort study, individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 or adenovirus had the highest risk of mortality. Irrespective of the virus type, older age, male sex, comorbidities, hospitalization in vulnerable regions, and low oxygen saturation were associated with an increased risk of fatality.

For Tuberculosis, Not "To Screen or Not to Screen?" but "Who?" and "How?"

Active case finding leveraging new molecular diagnostics and chest X-rays with automated interpretation algorithms is increasingly being developed for high-risk populations to drive down tuberculosis incidence. We consider why such an approach did not deliver a decline in tuberculosis prevalence in Brazilian prison populations and what to consider next.

Exploring the Resurgence of a Neglected Disease: Lessons From the 2023-2024 Mpox Outbreak in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Following the 2022 global mpox outbreak, diagnoses decreased worldwide, even in settings with limited vaccine access. In 2023-2024, a new outbreak emerged in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, highlighting the importance of continuous surveillance, preventive measures such as vaccination in vulnerable populations, and treatment options, emphasizing equitable global health technology distribution.

Long-Term Protective Effect of Tuberculosis Preventive Therapy in a Medium/High Tuberculosis Incidence Setting.

BACKGROUND: The duration of the protective effect of tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT) is controversial. Some studies have found that the protective effect of TPT is lost after cessation of therapy among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in settings with very high tuberculosis incidence, but others have found long-term protection in low-incidence settings. METHODS: We estimated the incidence rate (IR) of new tuberculosis disease for up to 12 years after randomization to 4 months of rifampin or 9 months of isoniazid, among 991 Brazilian participants in a TPT trial in the state of Rio de Janeiro, with an incidence of 68.6/100 000 population in 2022. The adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of independent variables for incident tuberculosis were calculated. RESULTS: The overall tuberculosis IR was 1.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01- 2.7) per 1000 person-years (PY). The tuberculosis IR was higher among those who did not complete TPT than in those who did (2.9 [95% CI, 1.3-5.6] vs 1.1 [.4-2.3] per 1000 PY; IR ratio, 2.7 [1.0-7.2]). The tuberculosis IR was higher within 28 months after randomization (IR, 3.5 [95% CI, 1.6-6.6] vs 1.1 [.5-2.1] per 1000 PY between 28 and 143 months; IR ratio, 3.1 [1.2-8.2]). Treatment noncompletion was the only variable associated with incident tuberculosis (aHR, 3.2 [95% CI, 1.1-9.7]). CONCLUSIONS: In a mostly HIV-noninfected population, a complete course of TPT conferred long-term protection against tuberculosis.