Costs in conservation: Common costly mistakes and how to avoid them.

There has been an increasingly prevalent message that data regarding costs must be included in conservation planning activities to make cost-efficient decisions. Despite the growing acceptance that socioeconomic context is critical to conservation success, the approaches to embedded economic and financial considerations into planning have not significantly evolved. Inappropriate cost data is frequently included in decisions, with the potential of compromising biodiversity and social outcomes. For each conservation planning step, this essay details common mistakes made when considering costs, proposing solutions to enable conservation managers to know when and how to include costs. Appropriate use of high-quality cost data obtained at the right scale will improve decision-making and ultimately avoid costly mistakes.

Pandemic refuges: Lessons from 2 years of COVID-19.

This paper relates evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic to the concept of pandemic refuges, as developed in literature on global catastrophic risk. In this literature, a refuge is a place or facility designed to keep a portion of the population alive during extreme global catastrophes. COVID-19 is not the most extreme pandemic scenario, but it is nonetheless a very severe global event, and it therefore provides an important source of evidence. Through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, several political jurisdictions have achieved low spread of COVID-19 via isolation from the rest of the world and can therefore classify as pandemic refuges. Their suppression and elimination of COVID-19 demonstrates the viability of pandemic refuges as a risk management measure. Whereas prior research emphasizes island nations as pandemic refuges, this paper uses case studies of China and Western Australia to show that other types of jurisdictions can also successfully function as pandemic refuges. The paper also refines the concept of pandemic refuges and discusses implications for future pandemics.

Quantifying population-level conservation impacts for a perpetual conservation program on private land.

Area-based targets, such as percentages of regions protected, are popular metrics of success in the protection of nature. While easily quantified, these targets can be uninformative about the effectiveness of conservation interventions and should be complemented by program impact evaluations. However, most impact evaluations have examined the effect of protected areas on deforestation. Studies that have extended these evaluations to more dynamic systems or different outcomes are less common, largely due to data availability. In these cases, simulations might prove to be a valuable tool for gaining an understanding of the potential range of program effect sizes. Here, we employ simulations of wetland drainage to estimate the impact of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Small Wetlands Acquisition Program (SWAP) across a ten-year period in terms of wetland area, and breeding waterfowl and brood abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana. Using our simulation results, we estimate a plausible range of program impact for the SWAP as an avoided loss of between 0.00% and 0.02% of the carrying capacity for broods and breeding waterfowl from 2008-2017. Despite the low programmatic impact that these results suggest, the perpetual nature of SWAP governance provides promising potential for a higher cumulative conservation impact in the long term if future wetland drainage occurs.

The cost of not acting: Delaying invasive grass management increases costs and threatens assets in a national park, northern Australia.

Globally, invasive grasses are a major threat to protected areas (PAs) due to their ability to alter community structure and function, reduce biodiversity, and alter fire regimes. However, there is often a mismatch between the threat posed by invasive grasses and the management response. We document a case study of the spread and management of the ecosystem-transforming invasive grass, Andropogon gayanus Kunth. (gamba grass), in Litchfield National Park; an iconic PA in northern Australia that contains significant natural, cultural and social values. We undertook helicopter-based surveys of A. gayanus across 143,931 ha of Litchfield National Park in 2014 and 2021-2022. We used these data to parametrise a spatially-explicit spread model, interfaced with a management simulation model to predict 10-year patterns of spread, and associated management costs, under three scenarios. Our survey showed that between 2014 and 2021-22 A. gayanus spread by 9463 ha, and 47%. The gross A. gayanus infestation covered 29,713 ha of the total survey area, making it the largest national park infestation in Australia. A. gayanus had not been locally eradicated within the Park's small existing 'gamba grass eradication zone', and instead increased by 206 ha over the 7-year timeframe. Our modelled scenarios predict that without active management A. gayanus will continue spreading, covering 42,388 ha of Litchfield within a decade. Alternative scenarios predict that: (i) eradicating A. gayanus in the small existing eradication zone would likely protect 18% of visitor sites, and cost ∼AU$825,000 over 5 years - more than double the original predicted cost in 2014; or (ii) eradicating A. gayanus in a much larger eradication zone would likely protect 86% of visitor sites and several species of conservation significance, and cost ∼AU$6.6 million over 5 years. Totally eradicating A. gayanus from the Park is no longer viable due to substantial spread since 2014. Our study demonstrates the value of systematic landscape-scale surveys and costed management scenarios to enable assessment and prioritisation of weed management. It also demonstrates the increased environmental and financial costs of delaying invasive grass management, and the serious threat A. gayanus poses to PAs across northern Australia.

Importance of species translocations under rapid climate change.

Species that cannot adapt or keep pace with a changing climate are likely to need human intervention to shift to more suitable climates. While hundreds of articles mention using translocation as a climate-change adaptation tool, in practice, assisted migration as a conservation action remains rare, especially for animals. This is likely due to concern over introducing species to places where they may become invasive. However, there are other barriers to consider, such as time-frame mismatch, sociopolitical, knowledge and uncertainty barriers to conservationists adopting assisted migration as a go-to strategy. We recommend the following to advance assisted migration as a conservation tool: attempt assisted migrations at small scales, translocate species with little invasion risk, adopt robust monitoring protocols that trigger an active response, and promote political and public support.

Importancia de las Reubicaciones de Especies bajo el Cambio Climático Acelerado Resumen Las especies que no pueden adaptarse o mantener el ritmo del cambio climático probablemente requieran de la intervención humana para mudarse a climas más adecuados. Mientras que cientos de artículos mencionan el uso de las reubicaciones como una herramienta de adaptación al cambio climático, en la práctica, la migración asistida todavía es rara como una acción de conservación, especialmente para animales. Lo anterior probablemente se debe a la preocupación que existe por la introducción de especies a sitios en los que podrían volverse invasoras. Sin embargo, existen otras barreras que deberían considerarse, como aquellas ocasionadas por el desfase en el marco temporal, cuestiones sociopolíticas, de conocimiento o de incertidumbre para los conservacionistas que adoptan a la migración asistida como la estrategia de cajón. Recomendamos lo siguiente para que la migración asistida avance como herramienta de conservación: intentar realizar migraciones asistidas a pequeñas escalas, reubicar especies con poco riesgo de invasión, adoptar protocolos de monitoreo robustos que generen una respuesta activa y promover el apoyo público y político.

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity.

The need for spatially explicit quantification of benefits in invasive-species management.

Worldwide, invasive species are a leading driver of environmental change across terrestrial, marine, and freshwater environments and cost billions of dollars annually in ecological damages and economic losses. Resources limit invasive-species control, and planning processes are needed to identify cost-effective solutions. Thus, studies are increasingly considering spatially variable natural and socioeconomic assets (e.g., species persistence, recreational fishing) when planning the allocation of actions for invasive-species management. There is a need to improve understanding of how such assets are considered in invasive-species management. We reviewed over 1600 studies focused on management of invasive species, including flora and fauna. Eighty-four of these studies were included in our final analysis because they focused on the prioritization of actions for invasive species management. Forty-five percent (n = 38) of these studies were based on spatial optimization methods, and 35% (n = 13) accounted for spatially variable assets. Across all 84 optimization studies considered, 27% (n = 23) explicitly accounted for spatially variable assets. Based on our findings, we further explored the potential costs and benefits to invasive species management when spatially variable assets are explicitly considered or not. To include spatially variable assets in decision-making processes that guide invasive-species management there is a need to quantify environmental responses to invasive species and to enhance understanding of potential impacts of invasive species on different natural or socioeconomic assets. We suggest these gaps could be filled by systematic reviews, quantifying invasive species impacts on native species at different periods, and broadening sources and enhancing sharing of knowledge.

A habitat-based approach to predict impacts of marine protected areas on fishers.

Although marine protected areas can simultaneously contribute to biodiversity conservation and fisheries management, the global network is biased toward particular ecosystem types because they have been established primarily in an ad hoc fashion. The optimization of trade-offs between biodiversity benefits and socioeconomic values increases success of protected areas and minimizes enforcement costs in the long run, but it is often neglected in marine spatial planning (MSP). Although the acquisition of spatially explicit socioeconomic data is perceived as a costly or secondary step in MSP, it is critical to account for lost opportunities by people whose activities will be restricted, especially fishers. We developed an easily reproduced habitat-based approach to estimate the spatial distribution of opportunity cost to fishers in data-poor regions. We assumed the most accessible areas have higher economic and conservation values than less accessible areas and their designation as no-take zones represents a loss of fishing opportunities. We estimated potential distribution of fishing resources from bathymetric ranges and benthic habitat distribution and the relative importance of the different resources for each port of total catches, revenues, and stakeholder perception. In our model, we combined different cost layers to produce a comprehensive cost layer so that we could evaluate of trade-offs. Our approach directly supports conservation planning, can be applied generally, and is expected to facilitate stakeholder input and community acceptance of conservation.

Standardized reporting of the costs of management interventions for biodiversity conservation.

Effective conservation management interventions must combat threats and deliver benefits at costs that can be achieved within limited budgets. Considerable effort has focused on measuring the potential benefits of conservation interventions, but explicit quantification of the financial costs of implementation is rare. Even when costs have been quantified, haphazard and inconsistent reporting means published values are difficult to interpret. This reporting deficiency hinders progress toward a collective understanding of the financial costs of management interventions across projects and thus limits the ability to identify efficient solutions to conservation problems or attract adequate funding. We devised a standardized approach to describing financial costs reported for conservation interventions. The standards call for researchers and practitioners to describe the objective and outcome, context and methods, and scale of costed interventions, and to state which categories of costs are included and the currency and date for reported costs. These standards aim to provide enough contextual information that readers and future users can interpret the cost data appropriately. We suggest these standards be adopted by major conservation organizations, conservation science institutions, and journals so that cost reporting is comparable among studies. This would support shared learning and enhance the ability to identify and perform cost-effective conservation.

Optimal dynamic control of invasions: applying a systematic conservation approach.

The social, economic, and environmental impacts of invasive plants are well recognized. However, these variable impacts are rarely accounted for in the spatial prioritization of funding for weed management. We examine how current spatially explicit prioritization methods can be extended to identify optimal budget allocations to both eradication and control measures of invasive species to minimize the costs and likelihood of invasion. Our framework extends recent approaches to systematic prioritization of weed management to account for multiple values that are threatened by weed invasions with a multi-year dynamic prioritization approach. We apply our method to the northern portion of the Daly catchment in the Northern Territory, which has significant conservation values that are threatened by gamba grass (Andropogon gayanus), a highly invasive species recognized by the Australian government as a Weed of National Significance (WONS). We interface Marxan, a widely applied conservation planning tool, with a dynamic biophysical model of gamba grass to optimally allocate funds to eradication and control programs under two budget scenarios comparing maximizing gain (MaxGain) and minimizing loss (MinLoss) optimization approaches. The prioritizations support previous findings that a MinLoss approach is a better strategy when threats are more spatially variable than conservation values. Over a 10-year simulation period, we find that a MinLoss approach reduces future infestations by ~8% compared to MaxGain in the constrained budget scenarios and ~12% in the unlimited budget scenarios. We find that due to the extensive current invasion and rapid rate of spread, allocating the annual budget to control efforts is more efficient than funding eradication efforts when there is a constrained budget. Under a constrained budget, applying the most efficient optimization scenario (control, minloss) reduces spread by ~27% compared to no control. Conversely, if the budget is unlimited it is more efficient to fund eradication efforts and reduces spread by ~65% compared to no control.

Efficient and equitable design of marine protected areas in Fiji through inclusion of stakeholder-specific objectives in conservation planning.

The efficacy of protected areas varies, partly because socioeconomic factors are not sufficiently considered in planning and management. Although integrating socioeconomic factors into systematic conservation planning is increasingly advocated, research is needed to progress from recognition of these factors to incorporating them effectively in spatial prioritization of protected areas. We evaluated 2 key aspects of incorporating socioeconomic factors into spatial prioritization: treatment of socioeconomic factors as costs or objectives and treatment of stakeholders as a single group or multiple groups. Using as a case study the design of a system of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) in Kubulau, Fiji, we assessed how these aspects affected the configuration of no-take MPAs in terms of trade-offs between biodiversity objectives, fisheries objectives, and equity in catch losses among fisher stakeholder groups. The achievement of fisheries objectives and equity tended to trade-off concavely with increasing biodiversity objectives, indicating that it is possible to achieve low to mid-range biodiversity objectives with relatively small losses to fisheries and equity. Importantly, the extent of trade-offs depended on the method used to incorporate socioeconomic data and was least severe when objectives were set for each fisher stakeholder group explicitly. We found that using different methods to incorporate socioeconomic factors that require similar data and expertise can result in plans with very different impacts on local stakeholders.

A multidisciplinary conceptualization of conservation opportunity.

An opportunity represents an advantageous combination of circumstances that allows goals to be achieved. We reviewed the nature of opportunity and how it manifests in different subsystems (e.g., biophysical, social, political, economic) as conceptualized in other bodies of literature, including behavior, adoption, entrepreneur, public policy, and resilience literature. We then developed a multidisciplinary conceptualization of conservation opportunity. We identified 3 types of conservation opportunity: potential, actors remove barriers to problem solving by identifying the capabilities within the system that can be manipulated to create support for conservation action; traction, actors identify windows of opportunity that arise from exogenous shocks, events, or changes that remove barriers to solving problems; and existing, everything is in place for conservation action (i.e., no barriers exist) and an actor takes advantage of the existing circumstances to solve problems. Different leverage points characterize each type of opportunity. Thus, unique stages of opportunity identification or creation and exploitation exist: characterizing the system and defining problems; identifying potential solutions; assessing the feasibility of solutions; identifying or creating opportunities; and taking advantage of opportunities. These stages can be undertaken independently or as part of a situational analysis and typically comprise the first stage, but they can also be conducted iteratively throughout a conservation planning process. Four types of entrepreneur can be identified (business, policy, social, and conservation), each possessing attributes that enable them to identify or create opportunities and take advantage of them. We examined how different types of conservation opportunity manifest in a social-ecological system (the Great Barrier Reef) and how they can be taken advantage of. Our multidisciplinary conceptualization of conservation opportunity strengthens and legitimizes the concept.

Social media data for biodiversity conservation.

Systematic conservation planning is considered best practice for identifying priority areas, but applications remain limited where biodiversity data are insufficient. In a recent article, Chowdhury et al. tap into citizen scientists via Facebook to address this gap in Bangladesh. Here, I discuss the importance of their demonstrated pipeline, from data acquisition to conservation prioritisation.

Integrated social-ecological data for regional natural resource management.

Natural resource managers need information about both human and natural systems and interactions between those systems. Much data is available, but mostly from disparate sources and data have often been collected at different time steps and at different geographic scales. We used insights from the literature to select 270 relevant variables, available at national scale, from 33 unique (Australian) data sources. There were numerous with repeat measures, so in total we have 425 variables: 143 specific to 2016, 148 specific to 2021, and 134 available for both periods. We used GIS to summarize the variables spatially based on two geographic boundaries: one describes 63 Natural Resource Management Regions; the other describes 419 (sub) bioregions (formally, IBRA - Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia). Data deficiencies prevented us from being able to report on all variables for all regions. In the NRM dataset many regions are offshore islands, about which data are not generally available. Moreover, many IBRA regions are small and household level data are not always available at that scale. For analyses requiring a complete dataset at a single time step, our 2021 dataset for NRM regions includes 270 unique variables that describe 56 regions. Our IBRA data includes 214 variables describing 409 regions. To help managers select appropriate data for specific problems/contexts, the metadata file also categorises variables according to (a) whether they pertain to the social or ecological system, or interactions; (b) the segment of society described (where relevant); and (c) the frequency with which data are updated.

Australian agricultural resources: A national scale land capability map.

Ongoing land clearing is a key driver of biodiversity loss and climate change. Effective action to halt land clearing and land degradation ultimately relies on understanding patterns of land capability for production uses, in particular agriculture, as a key driver of land use. Here we describe a national agricultural land capability map for Australia, based on harmonized state agricultural land capability datasets and modelled pastoral capability. State-level agricultural land capability datasets capture regional variations in crop selection and suitability. Hence, we reclassified these datasets to fit a nationally consistent land capability ranking scheme. For regions in which agricultural capability data was not available, we modelled agricultural and pastoral capability and mapped this to the same ranking scheme. The national land capability dataset fills an immediate knowledge need for Australia. This dataset has wide potential for utilization, such as for retrospective analysis of land use policies and prospective regional planning initiatives to ensure forward looking policies and land use plans optimize land allocation.

The benefits of Q + PPGIS for coupled human-natural systems research: A systematic review.

Managing complex problems in socio-ecological systems (SES) requires innovative approaches, which account for multiple scales, large datasets, and diverse lived experiences. By combining two commonly utilized mixed-methods, public participation GIS (PPGIS) and Q-method (Q), Q + PPGIS has the potential to reveal competing agendas and reduce conflict, but its benefits and weaknesses are comparatively understudied. Using a systematic review, we evaluated how different studies have employed and implemented the Q + PPGIS method. We found 16 studies, comprising 30 publications, with considerable variation in their geographic foci, research disciplines, and addressed SES challenges. These studies exhibit a lack of cohesion between methodological design and implementation and the absence of a consistent application of the method. Nonetheless, Q + PPGIS offers a tool that can guide policy, better inform stakeholders, and reduce conflict based on misconceptions. Resolving the shortcomings identified here will broaden Q + PPGIS utility in geographically situating and representing multiple realities within complex socio-ecological systems challenges.

The minimum land area requiring conservation attention to safeguard biodiversity.

Ambitious conservation efforts are needed to stop the global biodiversity crisis. In this study, we estimate the minimum land area to secure important biodiversity areas, ecologically intact areas, and optimal locations for representation of species ranges and ecoregions. We discover that at least 64 million square kilometers (44% of terrestrial area) would require conservation attention (ranging from protected areas to land-use policies) to meet this goal. More than 1.8 billion people live on these lands, so responses that promote autonomy, self-determination, equity, and sustainable management for safeguarding biodiversity are essential. Spatially explicit land-use scenarios suggest that 1.3 million square kilometers of this land is at risk of being converted for intensive human land uses by 2030, which requires immediate attention. However, a sevenfold difference exists between the amount of habitat converted in optimistic and pessimistic land-use scenarios, highlighting an opportunity to avert this crisis. Appropriate targets in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework to encourage conservation of the identified land would contribute substantially to safeguarding biodiversity.

Southeast Asian protected areas are effective in conserving forest cover and forest carbon stocks compared to unprotected areas.

Protected areas aim to conserve nature, ecosystem services, and cultural values; however, they have variable success in doing so under high development pressure. Southeast Asian protected areas faced the highest level of human pressure at the turn of the twenty-first century. To estimate their effectiveness in conserving forest cover and forest carbon stocks for 2000-2018, we used statistical matching methods to control for the non-random location of protected areas, to compare protection against a matched counterfactual. We found Southeast Asian protected areas had three times less forest cover loss than similar landscapes without protection. Protected areas that had completed management reporting using the Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT) conserved significantly more forest cover and forest carbon stocks than those that had not. Management scores were positively associated with the level of carbon emissions avoided, but not the level of forest cover loss avoided. Our study is the first to find that METT scores could predict the level of carbon emissions avoided in protected areas. Given that only 11% of protected areas in Southeast Asia had completed METT surveys, our results illustrate the need to scale-up protected area management effectiveness reporting programs to improve their effectiveness for conserving forests, and for storing and sequestering carbon.

Areas of global importance for conserving terrestrial biodiversity, carbon and water.

To meet the ambitious objectives of biodiversity and climate conventions, the international community requires clarity on how these objectives can be operationalized spatially and how multiple targets can be pursued concurrently. To support goal setting and the implementation of international strategies and action plans, spatial guidance is needed to identify which land areas have the potential to generate the greatest synergies between conserving biodiversity and nature's contributions to people. Here we present results from a joint optimization that minimizes the number of threatened species, maximizes carbon retention and water quality regulation, and ranks terrestrial conservation priorities globally. We found that selecting the top-ranked 30% and 50% of terrestrial land area would conserve respectively 60.7% and 85.3% of the estimated total carbon stock and 66% and 89.8% of all clean water, in addition to meeting conservation targets for 57.9% and 79% of all species considered. Our data and prioritization further suggest that adequately conserving all species considered (vertebrates and plants) would require giving conservation attention to ~70% of the terrestrial land surface. If priority was given to biodiversity only, managing 30% of optimally located land area for conservation may be sufficient to meet conservation targets for 81.3% of the terrestrial plant and vertebrate species considered. Our results provide a global assessment of where land could be optimally managed for conservation. We discuss how such a spatial prioritization framework can support the implementation of the biodiversity and climate conventions.