Memory profiles predict dementia over 23-28 years in normal but not successful aging.

OBJECTIVES: Prospective studies suggest that memory deficits are detectable decades before clinical symptoms of dementia emerge. However, individual differences in long-term memory trajectories prior to diagnosis need to be further elucidated. The aim of the current study was to investigate long-term dementia and mortality risk for individuals with different memory trajectory profiles in a well-characterized population-based sample. METHODS: 1062 adults (aged 45-80 years) who were non-demented at baseline were followed over 23-28 years. Dementia and mortality risk were studied for three previously classified episodic memory trajectory groups: maintained high performance (Maintainers; 26%), average decline (Averages; 64%), and accelerated decline (Decliners; 12%), using multistate modeling to characterize individuals' transitions from an initial non-demented state, possibly to a state of dementia and/or death. RESULTS: The memory groups showed considerable intergroup variability in memory profiles, starting 10-15 years prior to dementia diagnosis, and prior to death. A strong relationship between memory trajectory group and dementia risk was found. Specifically, Decliners had more than a fourfold risk of developing dementia compared to Averages. In contrast, Maintainers had a 2.6 times decreased dementia risk compared to Averages, and in addition showed no detectable memory decline prior to dementia diagnosis. A similar pattern of association was found for the memory groups and mortality risk, although only among non-demented. CONCLUSION: There was a strong relationship between accelerated memory decline and dementia, further supporting the prognostic value of memory decline. The intergroup differences, however, suggest that mechanisms involved in successful memory aging may delay symptom onset.

Investigating rare pathogenic/likely pathogenic exonic variation in bipolar disorder.

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a serious mental illness with substantial common variant heritability. However, the role of rare coding variation in BD is not well established. We examined the protein-coding (exonic) sequences of 3,987 unrelated individuals with BD and 5,322 controls of predominantly European ancestry across four cohorts from the Bipolar Sequencing Consortium (BSC). We assessed the burden of rare, protein-altering, single nucleotide variants classified as pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P-LP) both exome-wide and within several groups of genes with phenotypic or biologic plausibility in BD. While we observed an increased burden of rare coding P-LP variants within 165 genes identified as BD GWAS regions in 3,987 BD cases (meta-analysis OR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.3-2.8, one-sided p = 6.0 × 10-4), this enrichment did not replicate in an additional 9,929 BD cases and 14,018 controls (OR = 0.9, one-side p = 0.70). Although BD shares common variant heritability with schizophrenia, in the BSC sample we did not observe a significant enrichment of P-LP variants in SCZ GWAS genes, in two classes of neuronal synaptic genes (RBFOX2 and FMRP) associated with SCZ or in loss-of-function intolerant genes. In this study, the largest analysis of exonic variation in BD, individuals with BD do not carry a replicable enrichment of rare P-LP variants across the exome or in any of several groups of genes with biologic plausibility. Moreover, despite a strong shared susceptibility between BD and SCZ through common genetic variation, we do not observe an association between BD risk and rare P-LP coding variants in genes known to modulate risk for SCZ.

Characterisation of age and polarity at onset in bipolar disorder.

BACKGROUND: Studying phenotypic and genetic characteristics of age at onset (AAO) and polarity at onset (PAO) in bipolar disorder can provide new insights into disease pathology and facilitate the development of screening tools. AIMS: To examine the genetic architecture of AAO and PAO and their association with bipolar disorder disease characteristics. METHOD: Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and polygenic score (PGS) analyses of AAO (n = 12 977) and PAO (n = 6773) were conducted in patients with bipolar disorder from 34 cohorts and a replication sample (n = 2237). The association of onset with disease characteristics was investigated in two of these cohorts. RESULTS: Earlier AAO was associated with a higher probability of psychotic symptoms, suicidality, lower educational attainment, not living together and fewer episodes. Depressive onset correlated with suicidality and manic onset correlated with delusions and manic episodes. Systematic differences in AAO between cohorts and continents of origin were observed. This was also reflected in single-nucleotide variant-based heritability estimates, with higher heritabilities for stricter onset definitions. Increased PGS for autism spectrum disorder (ß = -0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), major depression (ß = -0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), schizophrenia (ß = -0.39 years, s.e. = 0.08), and educational attainment (ß = -0.31 years, s.e. = 0.08) were associated with an earlier AAO. The AAO GWAS identified one significant locus, but this finding did not replicate. Neither GWAS nor PGS analyses yielded significant associations with PAO. CONCLUSIONS: AAO and PAO are associated with indicators of bipolar disorder severity. Individuals with an earlier onset show an increased polygenic liability for a broad spectrum of psychiatric traits. Systematic differences in AAO across cohorts, continents and phenotype definitions introduce significant heterogeneity, affecting analyses.

Depressive symptoms and time perspective in older adults: associations beyond personality and negative life events.

Objectives: To examine the extent to which time perspective, an individual's habitual way of relating to the past, the present, and the future time frames, accounts for variations in self-reported depressive symptoms among older adults. Method: Four hundred two participants (60-90 years) completed the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale (CES-D) and the Swedish Zimbardo Time perspective Inventory (S-ZTPI). The influence of personality as reflected by the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI) and self-reported negative life events (NLEs) were controlled for in hierarchic regression analyses. Results: The six S-ZTPI dimensions accounted for 24.5% of the variance in CES-D scores beyond age and gender. Half of the variance remained when the TCI factors and NLEs were controlled for. Past Negative, Future Negative, and Past Positive (inverse association) were the significant unique predictors. Significant age interactions were observed for two S-ZTPI dimensions, with a diminished association to depressive symptoms for Future Negative and a magnified association for Present Fatalistic with higher age. Conclusions: The results demonstrate a substantial relation between facets of time perspective and depressive symptoms in old age. They also indicate an age-related shift in the relative importance from concerns about of the future (Future Negative) to the present (Present Fatalistic) with increased age. In young old-age, when the future is more 'open', future worries (Future Negative) may be a more frequent source of distress. In late senescence, perceived threats to autonomy (e.g. physical health problems and cognitive deficits), as reflected by higher scores on Present Fatalistic, may instead have more bearing on mood state.

Road traffic noise, air pollution, and risk of dementia - results from the Betula project.

BACKGROUND: There is growing evidence for a negative impact of traffic-related air pollution on risk of dementia. However, the contribution of noise exposure to this association has been rarely examined. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the individual and combined effect of noise and air pollution on risk of dementia. METHODS: Data on dementia incidence over a 15 year period was obtained from the Betula project, a longitudinal study on health and ageing. Estimates of annual mean levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx) at the participants' residential address were obtained using a land-use regression model. Modelled data provided road traffic noise levels (Leq. 24 h) at the participants' residential address at baseline. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR). RESULTS: Of 1721 participants at baseline, 302 developed dementia during the follow up period. Exposure to noise levels (Leq. 24 h) > 55 dB had no significant effect on dementia risk (HR 0.95; CI: 0.57, 1.57). Residing in the two highest quartiles of NOx exposure was associated with an increased risk of dementia. The risk associated with NOx was not modified by adjusting for noise. Moreover, we found no significant interaction effects between NOx and road traffic noise on dementia risk. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence that exposure to road traffic noise, either independently or in combination with traffic air pollution, was associated with risk of dementia in our study area. Our results suggest that pollution should be considered the main component in the association between traffic related exposures and dementia.

Loss of Nicastrin from Oligodendrocytes Results in Hypomyelination and Schizophrenia with Compulsive Behavior.

The biological underpinnings and the pathological lesions of psychiatric disorders are centuries-old questions that have yet to be understood. Recent studies suggest that schizophrenia and related disorders likely have their origins in perturbed neurodevelopment and can result from a large number of common genetic variants or multiple, individually rare genetic alterations. It is thus conceivable that key neurodevelopmental pathways underline the various genetic changes and the still unknown pathological lesions in schizophrenia. Here, we report that mice defective of the nicastrin subunit of γ-secretase in oligodendrocytes have hypomyelination in the central nervous system. These mice have altered dopamine signaling and display profound abnormal phenotypes reminiscent of schizophrenia. In addition, we identify an association of the nicastrin gene with a human schizophrenia cohort. These observations implicate γ-secretase and its mediated neurodevelopmental pathways in schizophrenia and provide support for the "myelination hypothesis" of the disease. Moreover, by showing that schizophrenia and obsessive-compulsive symptoms could be modeled in animals wherein a single genetic factor is altered, our work provides a biological basis that schizophrenia with obsessive-compulsive disorder is a distinct subtype of schizophrenia.

A genetic association study of CSMD1 and CSMD2 with cognitive function.

The complement cascade plays a role in synaptic pruning and synaptic plasticity, which seem to be involved in cognitive functions and psychiatric disorders. Genetic variants in the closely related CSMD1 and CSMD2 genes, which are implicated in complement regulation, are associated with schizophrenia. Since patients with schizophrenia often show cognitive impairments, we tested whether variants in CSMD1 and CSMD2 are also associated with cognitive functions per se. We took a discovery-replication approach, using well-characterized Scandinavian cohorts. A total of 1637 SNPs in CSMD1 and 206 SNPs in CSMD2 were tested for association with cognitive functions in the NCNG sample (Norwegian Cognitive NeuroGenetics; n=670). Replication testing of SNPs with p-value<0.001 (7 in CSMD1 and 3 in CSMD2) was carried out in the TOP sample (Thematically Organized Psychosis; n=1025) and the BETULA sample (Betula Longitudinal Study on aging, memory and dementia; n=1742). Finally, we conducted a meta-analysis of these SNPs using all three samples. The previously identified schizophrenia marker in CSMD1 (SNP rs10503253) was also included. The strongest association was observed between the CSMD1 SNP rs2740931 and performance in immediate episodic memory (p-value=5×10-6, minor allele A, MAF 0.48-0.49, negative direction of effect). This association reached the study-wide significance level (p⩽1.2×10-5). SNP rs10503253 was not significantly associated with cognitive functions in our samples. In conclusion, we studied n=3437 individuals and found evidence that a variant in CSMD1 is associated with cognitive function. Additional studies of larger samples with cognitive phenotypes will be needed to further clarify the role of CSMD1 in cognitive phenotypes in health and disease.

Herpes virus seroepidemiology in the adult Swedish population.

BACKGROUND: Herpes viruses establish a life-long latency and can cause symptoms during both first-time infection and later reactivation. The aim of the present study was to describe the seroepidemiology of Herpes simplex type 1 (HSV1), Herpes simplex type 2 (HSV2), Cytomegalovirus (CMV), Varicella Zoster virus (VZV) and Human herpes virus type 6 (HHV6) in an adult Swedish population (35-95 years of age). METHODS: Presence of antibodies against the respective viruses in serum from individuals in the Betula study was determined with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Singular samples from 535 persons (53.9% women, mean age at inclusion 62.7 ± 14.4 years) collected 2003-2005 were analyzed for the five HHVs mentioned above. In addition, samples including follow-up samples collected 1988-2010 from 3,444 persons were analyzed for HSV. RESULTS: Prevalence of HSV1 was 79.4%, HSV2 12.9%, CMV 83.2%, VZV 97.9%, and HHV6 97.5%. Herpes virus infections were more common among women (p = 0.010) and a lower age-adjusted HSV seroprevalence was found in later birth cohorts (p < 0.001). The yearly incidence of HSV infection was estimated at 14.0/1000. CONCLUSION: Women are more often seropositive for HHV, especially HSV2. Age-adjusted seroprevalence for HSV was lower in later birth cohorts indicating a decreasing childhood and adolescent risk of infection.

Social relationships and risk of dementia: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The objective was to examine whether aspects of social relationships in old age are associated with all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). METHODS: We studied 1,715 older adults (≥ 65 years) who were dementia-free at baseline over a period of up to 16 years. Data on living status, contact/visit frequency, satisfaction with contact frequency, and having/not having a close friend were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regressions with all-cause dementia or AD as the dependent variable. To control for reverse causality and to identify potential long-term effects, we additionally performed analyses with delayed entry. RESULTS: We identified 373 incident cases of dementia (207 with AD) during follow-up. The variable visiting/visits from friends was associated with reduced risk of all-cause dementia. Further, a higher value on the relationships index (sum of all variables) was associated with reduced risk of all-cause dementia and AD. However, in analyses with delayed entry, restricted to participants with a survival time of three years or more, none of the social relationship variables was associated with all-cause dementia or AD. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that certain aspects of social relationships are associated with incident dementia or AD, but also that these associations may reflect reverse causality. Future studies aimed at identifying other factors of a person's social life that may have the potential to postpone dementia should consider the effects of reverse causality.

Subjective memory impairment in older adults predicts future dementia independent of baseline memory performance: Evidence from the Betula prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: The objective was to examine whether subjective memory impairment (SMI) predicts all-cause dementia or Alzheimer's disease (AD) in a population-based study with long-term follow-up (median = 10 years). METHODS: A total of 2043 initially dementia-free participants (≥ 60 years) made three memory ratings ("compared with others", "compared with five years ago", and "complaints from family/friends") at baseline. During follow-up, 372 participants developed dementia (208 with AD). RESULTS: Cox regression revealed that subjective memory impairment ratings predicted all-cause dementia in models adjusting for age and sex (hazard ratio or HR from 2.04 to 3.94), with even higher values for AD (HR from 2.29 to 5.74). The result persisted in models including other covariates, including baseline episodic memory performance, and in analyses restricted to participants with long time to dementia diagnosis (≥ 5 years). DISCUSSION: The findings underscore the usefulness of subjective memory assessment in combination with other factors in identifying individuals at risk for developing dementia.

Reactivated herpes simplex infection increases the risk of Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested a link between herpes simplex virus (HSV) type 1 and the development of Alzheimer's disease (AD). METHODS: The present analysis included 3432 persons (53.9% women, mean age at inclusion 62.7 ± 14.4 years) with a mean follow-up time of 11.3 years. The number of incident AD cases was 245. Serum samples were analyzed for anti-HSV antibodies (immunoglobulin (Ig)G and IgM) by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. RESULTS: The presence of anti-HSV IgG antibodies was not associated with an increased risk for AD, controlled for age and sex (hazard ratio, HR, 0.993, P = .979). However, the presence of anti-HSV IgM at baseline was associated with an increased risk of developing AD (HR 1.959, P = .012). CONCLUSION: Positivity for anti-HSV IgM, a sign of reactivated infection, was found to almost double the risk for AD, whereas the presence of anti-HSV IgG antibodies did not affect the risk.

Olfactory impairment and subjective olfactory complaints independently predict conversion to dementia: a longitudinal, population-based study.

We examined whether conversion to dementia can be predicted by self-reported olfactory impairment and/or by an inability to identify odors. Common forms of dementia involve an impaired sense of smell, and poor olfactory performance predicts cognitive decline among the elderly. We followed a sample of 1529 participants, who were within a normal range of overall cognitive function at baseline, over a 10-year period during which 159 were classified as having a dementia disorder. Dementia conversion was predicted from demographic variables, Mini-Mental State Examination score, and olfactory assessments. Self-reported olfactory impairment emerged as an independent predictor of dementia. After adjusting for effects of other predictors, individuals who rated their olfactory sensitivity as "worse than normal" were more likely to convert to dementia than those who reported normal olfactory sensitivity (odds ratio [OR] = 2.17; 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.40, 3.37]). Additionally, low scores on an odor identification test also predicted conversion to dementia (OR per 1 point increase = 0.89; 95% CI [0.81, 0.98]), but these two effects were additive. We suggest that assessing subjective olfactory complaints might supplement other assessments when evaluating the risk of conversion to dementia. Future studies should investigate which combination of olfactory assessments is most useful in predicting dementia conversion.

Shorter telomere length is linked to brain atrophy and white matter hyperintensities.

BACKGROUND: leukocyte telomere length (TL) is considered a marker of biological aging. Several studies have investigated the link between leukocyte TL and aging-associated functional attributes of the brain, but no prior study has investigated whether TL can be linked to brain atrophy and white matter hyperintensities (WMHs); two prominent structural manifestations of brain aging. METHODS: we investigated whether leukocyte TL was related to brain atrophy and WMHs in a sample of 102 non-demented individuals aged 64-75 years. RESULTS: shorter TL was related to greater degree of subcortical atrophy (ß = -0.217, P = 0.034), but not to cortical atrophy. Furthermore, TL was 371 bp shorter (P = 0.041) in participants exhibiting subcortical WMHs, and 552 bp shorter (P = 0.009) in older participants exhibiting periventricular WMHs. CONCLUSION: this study provides the first evidence of leukocyte TL being associated with cerebral subcortical atrophy and WMHs, lending further support to the concept of TL as a marker of biological aging, and in particular that of the aging brain.

Stressful life events are not associated with the development of dementia.

BACKGROUND: The impact of stressful life events as a risk factor of dementia diseases is inconclusive. We sought to determine whether stressful negative life events are associated with incidental dementia in a population-based study with long-term follow-up. We also tested the hypothesis that the occurrence of positive life events could mitigate or overcome the possible adverse effects of negative life events on dementia conversion. METHODS: The study involved 2,462 dementia-free participants aged 55 years and older. Information on life events was ascertained at baseline from a comprehensive Life Event Inventory, which included 56 questions about specific life events. For each life event, the emotional impact (both positive and negative) and emotional adjustment were asked for. RESULTS: During follow-up, 423 participants developed dementia; of these, 240 developed Alzheimer's disease (AD). Cox regression analysis showed no association between the total number of negative life events and the incidence of dementia when adjusted solely for age and gender (hazard ratio = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.92-1.02), or with multiple adjustments for a range of covariates (hazard ratio = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.91-1.01). Similarly, neither emotional impact nor emotional adjustment to these life events was associated with incident dementia. A separate analysis of AD did not alter the results. CONCLUSIONS: The result of this population-based study finds no association between negative or positive life events and dementia. Accordingly, our results reject the hypothesis that stressful life events trigger the onset of dementia diseases.

The relationship between marital and parental status and the risk of dementia.

BACKGROUND: This study examines the association between marital and parental status and their individual and combined effect on risk of dementia diseases in a population-based longitudinal study while controlling for a range of potential confounders, including social networks and exposure to stressful negative life events. METHODS: A total of 1,609 participants without dementia, aged 65 years and over, were followed for an average period of 8.6 years (SD = 4.8). During follow-up, 354 participants were diagnosed with dementia. Cox regression was used to investigate the effect of marital and parental status on risk of dementia. RESULTS: In univariate Cox regression models (adjusted for age as time scale), widowed (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13-1.78), and not having children (HR 1.54, 95% CI = 1.15-2.06) were significantly associated with incident dementia. In multivariate analyses that included simultaneously marital and parental status and covariates that were found to be significant in univariate models (p < 0.10), the HR was 1.30 (95% CI = 1.01-1.66) for widowed, and 1.51 (95% CI = 1.08-2.10) for those not having children. Finally, a group of four combined factors was constructed: married parents (reference), married without children, widowed parents, and widowed without children. The combined effect revealed a 1.3 times higher risk (95% CI = 1.03-1.76) of dementia in widow parents, and a 2.2 times higher risk (95% CI = 1.36-3.60) in widowed persons without children, in relation to married parents. No significant difference was observed for those being married and without children. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that marital- and parental status are important risk factors for developing dementia, with especially increased risk in those being both widowed and without children.

Revised Temperament and Character Inventory factors predict neuropsychiatric symptoms and aging-related cognitive decline across 25 years.

Introduction: Personality traits and neuropsychiatric symptoms such as neuroticism and depression share genetic overlap and have both been identified as risks factors for development of aging-related neurocognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease (AD). This study aimed to examine revised personality factors derived from the Temperament and Character Inventory, previously shown to be associated with psychiatric disorders, as predictors of neuropsychiatric, cognitive, and brain trajectories of participants from a population-based aging study. Methods: Mixed-effect linear regression analyses were conducted on data for the full sample (Nmax = 1,286), and a healthy subsample not converting to AD-dementia during 25-year follow-up (Nmax = 1,145), complemented with Cox proportional regression models to determine risk factors for conversion to clinical AD. Results: Two personality factors, Closeness to Experience (CE: avoidance of new stimuli, high anxiety, pessimistic anticipation, low reward seeking) and Tendence to Liabilities (TL: inability to change, low autonomy, unaware of the value of their existence) were associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms, stress (CE), sleep disturbance (TL), as well as greater decline in memory, vocabulary and verbal fluency in the full sample. Higher CE was additionally associated with greater memory decline across 25 years in the healthy subsample, and faster right hippocampal volume reduction across 8 years in a neuroimaging subsample (N = 216). Most, but not all, personality-cognition associations persisted after controlling for diabetes, hypertension and cardiovascular disease. Concerning risks for conversion to AD, higher age, and APOE-ε4, but none of the personality measures, were significant predictors. Conclusion: The results indicate that personality traits associated with psychiatric symptoms predict accelerated age-related neurocognitive declines even in the absence of neurodegenerative disease. The attenuation of some personality effects on cognition after adjustment for health indicators suggests that those effects may be partly mediated by somatic health. Taken together, the results further emphasize the importance of personality traits in neurocognitive aging and underscore the need for an integrative (biopsychosocial) perspective of normal and pathological age-related cognitive decline.

VEGF is a modifier of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in mice and humans and protects motoneurons against ischemic death.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is an incurable degenerative disorder of motoneurons. We recently reported that reduced expression of Vegfa causes ALS-like motoneuron degeneration in Vegfa(delta/delta) mice. In a meta-analysis of over 900 individuals from Sweden and over 1,000 individuals from Belgium and England, we now report that subjects homozygous with respect to the haplotypes -2,578A/-1,154A/-634G or -2,578A/-1,154G/-634G in the VEGF promoter/leader sequence had a 1.8 times greater risk of ALS (P = 0.00004). These 'at-risk' haplotypes lowered circulating VEGF levels in vivo and reduced VEGF gene transcription, IRES-mediated VEGF expression and translation of a novel large-VEGF isoform (L-VEGF) in vivo. Moreover, SOD1(G93A) mice crossbred with Vegfa(delta/delta) mice died earlier due to more severe motoneuron degeneration. Vegfa(delta/delta) mice were unusually susceptible to persistent paralysis after spinal cord ischemia, and treatment with Vegfa protected mice against ischemic motoneuron death. These findings indicate that VEGF is a modifier of motoneuron degeneration in human ALS and unveil a therapeutic potential of Vegfa for stressed motoneurons in mice.

PM2.5 and Dementia in a Low Exposure Setting: The Influence of Odor Identification Ability and APOE.

BACKGROUND: Growing evidence show that long term exposure to air pollution increases the risk of dementia. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate associations between PM2.5 exposure and dementia in a low exposure area, and to investigate the role of olfaction and the APOE ɛ4 allele in these associations. METHODS: Data were drawn from the Betula project, a longitudinal study on aging, memory, and dementia in Sweden. Odor identification ability was assessed using the Scandinavian Odor Identification Test (SOIT). Annual mean PM2.5 concentrations were obtained from a dispersion-model and matched at the participants' residential address. Proportional hazard regression was used to calculate hazard ratios. RESULTS: Of 1,846 participants, 348 developed dementia during the 21-year follow-up period. The average annual mean PM2.5 exposure at baseline was 6.77µg/m3, which is 1.77µg/m3 above the WHO definition of clean air. In a fully adjusted model (adjusted for age, sex, APOE, SOIT, cardiovascular diseases and risk factors, and education) each 1µg/m3 difference in annual mean PM2.5-concentration was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.23 for dementia (95% CI: 1.01-1.50). Analyses stratified by APOE status (ɛ4 carriers versus non-carriers), and odor identification ability (high versus low), showed associations only for ɛ4 carriers, and for low performance on odor identification ability. CONCLUSION: PM2.5 was associated with an increased risk of dementia in this low pollution setting. The associations between PM2.5 and dementia seemed stronger in APOE carriers and those with below average odor identification ability.

Sixteen-Year Longitudinal Evaluation of Blood-Based DNA Methylation Biomarkers for Early Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation (DNAm), an epigenetic mark reflecting both inherited and environmental influences, has shown promise for Alzheimer's disease (AD) prediction. OBJECTIVE: Testing long-term predictive ability (>15 years) of existing DNAm-based epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) measures and identifying novel early blood-based DNAm AD-prediction biomarkers. METHODS: EAA measures calculated from Illumina EPIC data from blood were tested with linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) in a longitudinal case-control sample (50 late-onset AD cases; 51 matched controls) with prospective data up to 16 years before clinical onset, and post-onset follow-up. Novel DNAm biomarkers were generated with epigenome-wide LMMs, and Sparse Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis applied at pre- (10-16 years), and post-AD-onset time-points. RESULTS: EAA did not differentiate cases from controls during the follow-up time (p > 0.05). Three new DNA biomarkers showed in-sample predictive ability on average 8 years pre-onset, after adjustment for age, sex, and white blood cell proportions (p-values: 0.022-<0.00001). Our longitudinally-derived panel replicated nominally (p = 0.012) in an external cohort (n = 146 cases, 324 controls). However, its effect size and discriminatory accuracy were limited compared to APOEɛ4-carriership (OR = 1.38 per 1 SD DNAm score increase versus OR = 13.58 for ɛ4-allele carriage; AUCs = 77.2% versus 87.0%). Literature review showed low overlap (n = 4) across 3275 AD-associated CpGs from 8 published studies, and no overlap with our identified CpGs.