RESUMO
Background: Bangladesh is making progress toward achieving zero dog-mediated rabies deaths by 2030, a global goal set in 2015. Methods: Drawing from multiple datasets, including patient immunisation record books and mass dog vaccination (MDV) databases, we conducted a comprehensive analysis between 2011 and 2023 to understand the effectiveness of rabies control programmes and predict human rabies cases in Bangladesh by 2030 using time-series forecasting models. We also compared rabies virus sequences from GenBank in Bangladesh and other South Asian countries. Findings: The estimated dog population in Bangladesh was determined to be 1,668,140, with an average dog population density of 12.83 dogs/km2 (95% CI 11.14-14.53) and a human-to-dog ratio of 86.70 (95% CI 76.60-96.80). The MDV campaign has led to the vaccination of an average of 21,295 dogs (95% CI 18,654-23,935) per district annually out of an estimated 26,065 dogs (95% CI 22,898-29,230). A declining trend in predicted and observed human rabies cases has been identified, suggesting that Bangladesh is poised to make substantial progress towards achieving the 'Zero by 30' goal, provided the current trajectory continues. The phylogenetic analysis shows that rabies viruses in Bangladesh belong to the Arctic-like-1 group, which differs from those in Bhutan despite sharing a common ancestor. Interpretation: Bangladesh's One Health approach demonstrated that an increase in MDV and anti-rabies vaccine (ARV) resulted in a decline in the relative risk of human rabies cases, indicating that eliminating dog-mediated human rabies could be achievable. Funding: The study was supported by the Communicable Disease Control (CDC) Division of the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) of the People's Republic of Bangladesh.
RESUMO
Identification of risk factors is crucial to find ways to reduce rabies deaths. We investigated the hospital records of rabies deceased through contact tracing of the relatives of the victims using enhanced verbal autopsies (VA) to identify why the people had to die from rabies in recent years in Bangladesh. Patients whose deaths were confirmed by physicians based on the history of animal exposure and clinical signs were taken into account for VA. Socio-demographic profile of the deceased, animal exposure, nature of the wound, and history of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) data were obtained and analysed. The study found 256 cases in which the cause of death was attributed to rabies, most of the victims were male (71.88%), resided in the rural community (80.47%), dependent (49.22%), and children below the age of 15 years (47.27%). Dogs were the single most responsible (81.64%); however, cats (12.11%), jackals (3.91%) and mongoose (2.34%) were also found accountable for rabies incidence (P < 0.05). Significantly, limbs were the most common (67.97%) site of exposure, and the shortest incubation period was identified in the case of bites to head and face (P < 0.05). The majority (86.72%) of the deceased did not receive any PEP; whereas, 66.80% sought treatment from traditional healers. Among the deceased (13.28%, n = 34) who had received PEP, only 8.82% of them completed the full course of the vaccination regimen (P < 0.01); however, none of them had history of taking rabies immunoglobulin (RIG). The study recommends extensive public health awareness programs in the rural community and establishing methods to improve healthcare-seeking behaviours, including receiving PEP instead of visiting traditional healers. Moreover, the availability and accessibility of PEP in the government hospital facilities are desirable, and laboratory-based surveillance with compatible rapid data reporting may be incorporated in the existing policy.