Gun violence in Australia, 2002-2016: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the burden, geographic distribution, and outcomes of firearm-related violence in New South Wales during 2002-2016. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Population-based record linkag study of people injured by firearms in NSW, 1 January 2002 - 31 December 2016. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Frequency, proportion, and rate of firearm-related injuries and deaths by intent category (assault, intentional self-harm, accidental, undetermined/other) and socio-demographic characteristics; medical service use (hospitalisations, ambulatory mental health care) before and after firearm-related injuries; associations between rates of firearm-related injury and those of licensed gun owners, by statistical area level 4. RESULTS: Firearm-related injuries were recorded for 2390 people; for 849 people, the injuries were caused by assault (36%), for 797 by intentional self-harm (33%), and for 506 by accidents (21%). Overall rates of firearm injuries were 4.1 per 100 000 males and 0.3 per 100 000 females; the overall rate was higher in outer regional/rural/remote areas (3.8 per 100 000) than in major cities (1.6 per 100 000) or inner regional areas (1.8 per 100 000). During 2002-2016, the overall firearm-related injury rate declined from 3.4 to 1.8 per 100 000 population, primarily because of declines in injuries caused by assault or accidental events. The rate of self-harm injuries with firearms were highest for people aged 60 years or more (41.5 per 100 000 population). Local rates of intentional self-harm injuries caused by firearms were strongly correlated with those of licensed gun owners (r = 0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Rates of self-harm with firearms are higher for older people, men, and residents in outer regional and rural/remote areas, while those for assault-related injuries are higher for younger people, men, and residents of major cities. Strategies for reducing injuries caused by self-harm and assault with firearms should focus on people at particular risk.

The Port Arthur massacre and the National Firearms Agreement: 20 years on, what are the lessons?

The 20th anniversary of the National Firearms Agreement (NFA) offers lessons for mental health and public health. Along with similar international legislation, the NFA exemplifies how firearms regulation can prevent firearm mortality and injuries. The gun lobby claims that mental illness underpins gun violence and should be a key site for intervention. A modest but significant link exists between mental disorders and community violence. However, the vast majority of mentally ill individuals are not violent. Despite media portrayals of their dangerousness, they are more likely to be victims of violence and of suicide. Most violent individuals do not have mental illness, and most mass murderers do not have identifiable severe mental illness. Many have maladaptive personality configurations. Gun availability and gun ownership, not severe mental illness, determines most gun homicides. Following recent gun massacres in the United States, there have been calls for better resourcing of mental health services to help identify and respond to those at risk and to regulate firearms access. Screening mentally ill populations for violence risk is misguided. However, clinicians can play a key role in working with legal authorities to monitor and assist regulation of firearm access, especially among high risk populations. Clinician involvement must be complemented by wider gun control measures. The gun lobby's turning the firearms availability debate into a question about whether people with mental illness histories should access such weapons is a calculated appeal to prejudice.

Association Between Gun Law Reforms and Intentional Firearm Deaths in Australia, 1979-2013.

IMPORTANCE: Rapid-fire weapons are often used by perpetrators in mass shooting incidents. In 1996 Australia introduced major gun law reforms that included a ban on semiautomatic rifles and pump-action shotguns and rifles and also initiated a program for buyback of firearms. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether enactment of the 1996 gun laws and buyback program were followed by changes in the incidence of mass firearm homicides and total firearm deaths. DESIGN: Observational study using Australian government statistics on deaths caused by firearms (1979-2013) and news reports of mass shootings in Australia (1979-May 2016). Changes in intentional firearm death rates were analyzed with negative binomial regression, and data on firearm-related mass killings were compared. EXPOSURES: Implementation of major national gun law reforms. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Changes in mass fatal shooting incidents (defined as ≥5 victims, not including the perpetrator) and in trends of rates of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and suicides, and total homicides and suicides per 100,000 population. RESULTS: From 1979-1996 (before gun law reforms), 13 fatal mass shootings occurred in Australia, whereas from 1997 through May 2016 (after gun law reforms), no fatal mass shootings occurred. There was also significant change in the preexisting downward trends for rates of total firearm deaths prior to vs after gun law reform. From 1979-1996, the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 3.6 (95% CI, 3.3-3.9) per 100,000 population (average decline of 3% per year; annual trend, 0.970; 95% CI, 0.963-0.976), whereas from 1997-2013 (after gun law reforms), the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0-1.4) per 100,000 population (average decline of 4.9% per year; annual trend, 0.951; 95% CI, 0.940-0.962), with a ratio of trends in annual death rates of 0.981 (95% CI, 0.968-0.993). There was a statistically significant acceleration in the preexisting downward trend for firearm suicide (ratio of trends, 0.981; 95% CI, 0.970-0.993), but this was not statistically significant for firearm homicide (ratio of trends, 0.975; 95% CI, 0.949-1.001). From 1979-1996, the mean annual rate of total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths was 10.6 (95% CI, 10.0-11.2) per 100,000 population (average increase of 2.1% per year; annual trend, 1.021; 95% CI, 1.016-1.026), whereas from 1997-2013, the mean annual rate was 11.8 (95% CI, 11.3-12.3) per 100,000 (average decline of 1.4% per year; annual trend, 0.986; 95% CI, 0.980-0.993), with a ratio of trends of 0.966 (95% CI, 0.958-0.973). There was no evidence of substitution of other lethal methods for suicides or homicides. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Following enactment of gun law reforms in Australia in 1996, there were no mass firearm killings through May 2016. There was a more rapid decline in firearm deaths between 1997 and 2013 compared with before 1997 but also a decline in total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths of a greater magnitude. Because of this, it is not possible to determine whether the change in firearm deaths can be attributed to the gun law reforms.