Predicting prognosis for adults with depression using individual symptom data: a comparison of modelling approaches.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop, validate and compare the performance of models predicting post-treatment outcomes for depressed adults based on pre-treatment data. METHODS: Individual patient data from all six eligible randomised controlled trials were used to develop (k = 3, n = 1722) and test (k = 3, n = 918) nine models. Predictors included depressive and anxiety symptoms, social support, life events and alcohol use. Weighted sum scores were developed using coefficient weights derived from network centrality statistics (models 1-3) and factor loadings from a confirmatory factor analysis (model 4). Unweighted sum score models were tested using elastic net regularised (ENR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression (models 5 and 6). Individual items were then included in ENR and OLS (models 7 and 8). All models were compared to one another and to a null model (mean post-baseline Beck Depression Inventory Second Edition (BDI-II) score in the training data: model 9). Primary outcome: BDI-II scores at 3-4 months. RESULTS: Models 1-7 all outperformed the null model and model 8. Model performance was very similar across models 1-6, meaning that differential weights applied to the baseline sum scores had little impact. CONCLUSIONS: Any of the modelling techniques (models 1-7) could be used to inform prognostic predictions for depressed adults with differences in the proportions of patients reaching remission based on the predicted severity of depressive symptoms post-treatment. However, the majority of variance in prognosis remained unexplained. It may be necessary to include a broader range of biopsychosocial variables to better adjudicate between competing models, and to derive models with greater clinical utility for treatment-seeking adults with depression.

The importance of transdiagnostic symptom level assessment to understanding prognosis for depressed adults: analysis of data from six randomised control trials.

BACKGROUND: Depression is commonly perceived as a single underlying disease with a number of potential treatment options. However, patients with major depression differ dramatically in their symptom presentation and comorbidities, e.g. with anxiety disorders. There are also large variations in treatment outcomes and associations of some anxiety comorbidities with poorer prognoses, but limited understanding as to why, and little information to inform the clinical management of depression. There is a need to improve our understanding of depression, incorporating anxiety comorbidity, and consider the association of a wide range of symptoms with treatment outcomes. METHOD: Individual patient data from six RCTs of depressed patients (total n = 2858) were used to estimate the differential impact symptoms have on outcomes at three post intervention time points using individual items and sum scores. Symptom networks (graphical Gaussian model) were estimated to explore the functional relations among symptoms of depression and anxiety and compare networks for treatment remitters and those with persistent symptoms to identify potential prognostic indicators. RESULTS: Item-level prediction performed similarly to sum scores when predicting outcomes at 3 to 4 months and 6 to 8 months, but outperformed sum scores for 9 to 12 months. Pessimism emerged as the most important predictive symptom (relative to all other symptoms), across these time points. In the network structure at study entry, symptoms clustered into physical symptoms, cognitive symptoms, and anxiety symptoms. Sadness, pessimism, and indecision acted as bridges between communities, with sadness and failure/worthlessness being the most central (i.e. interconnected) symptoms. Connectivity of networks at study entry did not differ for future remitters vs. those with persistent symptoms. CONCLUSION: The relative importance of specific symptoms in association with outcomes and the interactions within the network highlight the value of transdiagnostic assessment and formulation of symptoms to both treatment and prognosis. We discuss the potential for complementary statistical approaches to improve our understanding of psychopathology.

Umbrella review and meta-analysis of antiplatelet therapy for peripheral artery disease.

BACKGROUND: The literature on antiplatelet therapy for peripheral artery disease has historically been summarized inconsistently, leading to conflict between international guidelines. An umbrella review and meta-analysis was performed to summarize the literature, allow assessment of competing safety risks and clinical benefits, and identify weak areas for future research. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, DARE, PROSPERO and Cochrane databases were searched from inception until January 2019. All meta-analyses of antiplatelet therapy in peripheral artery disease were included. Quality was assessed using AMSTAR scores, and GRADE analysis was used to quantify the strength of evidence. Data were pooled using random-effects models. RESULTS: Twenty-eight meta-analyses were included. Thirty-three clinical outcomes and 41 antiplatelet comparisons in 72 181 patients were analysed. High-quality evidence showed that antiplatelet monotherapy reduced non-fatal strokes (3 (95 per cent c.i. 0 to 6) fewer per 1000 patients), In symptomatic patients, it reduced cardiovascular deaths (8 (0 to 16) fewer per 1000 patients), but increased the risk of major bleeding (7 (3 to 14) more events per 1000). In asymptomatic patients, monotherapy reduced non-fatal strokes (5 (0 to 8) fewer per 1000), but had no other clinical benefit. Dual antiplatelet therapy caused more major bleeding after intervention than monotherapy (37 (8 to 102) more events per 1000), with very low-quality evidence of improved endovascular patency (risk ratio 4·00, 95 per cent c.i. 0·91 to 17·68). CONCLUSION: Antiplatelet monotherapy has minimal clinical benefit for asymptomatic peripheral artery disease, and limited benefit for symptomatic disease, with a clear risk of major bleeding. There is a lack of evidence to guide antiplatelet prescribing after peripheral endovascular intervention.

ANTECEDENTES: Históricamente, la literatura del tratamiento antiplaquetario en la enfermedad arterial periférica se ha sintetizado inconsistentemente, lo que ha dado lugar a divergencias entre las guías internacionales. Se efectuó una amplia revision con metaanálisis para sintetizar claramente la literatura, permitiendo evaluar los riesgos competitivos de seguridad y los beneficios clínicos, e identificar áreas poco claras susceptibles de futuras investigaciones. MÉTODOS: La búsqueda se realizó en las bases de datos MEDLINE, EMBASE, DARE, PROSPERO y Cochrane desde su inicio hasta enero de 2019. Se incluyeron todos los metaanálisis del tratamiento antiplaquetario en la enfermedad arterial periférica. Se estimó su calidad utilizando la puntuación Amstar y la consistencia de su evidencia mediante el sistema GRADE. Los datos se agruparon utilizando modelos de efectos aleatorios. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 28 metaanálisis. Se analizaron 33 resultados clínicos y 41 comparaciones antiplaquetarias en 72.181 pacientes. Una evidencia de alta calidad demostró que la monoterapia antiplaquetaria reducía los accidentes cerebrovasculares no mortales y la muerte cardiovascular en pacientes sintomáticos (3 y 8 veces menos por 1.000 pacientes, respectivamente, i.c. del 95% 0-6 y 0-16), pero aumentó el riesgo de hemorragia grave (7 veces más por 1.000, i.c. del 95% 3-14). En pacientes asintomáticos, la monoterapia redujo los accidentes cerebrovasculares no mortales (5 veces menos por 1.000, i.c. del 95% 0-8) sin otro beneficio clínico. El doble tratamiento antiplaquetario causó más hemorragias graves después de cualquier intervención que la monoterapia (37 veces más por 1.000, i.c. del 95% 8-102), con una evidencia de muy baja calidad acerca de la mejoría de la permeabilidad endovascular (riesgo relativo 4,00, i.c. del 95% 0,91-17,68). CONCLUSIÓN: La monoterapia antiplaquetaria tiene un beneficio clínico mínimo en la enfermedad arterial periférica asintomática y un beneficio limitado en la sintomática, con un claro riesgo de hemorragia grave. No existe evidencia para recomendar la prescripción de antiagregantes plaquetarios después de una intervención endovascular periférica, situación que debería abordarse en ensayos aleatorizados con una potencia estadística adecuada.

Baseline factors associated with early and late death in intracerebral haemorrhage survivors.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine whether early and late death are associated with different baseline factors in intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) survivors. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of the multicentre prospective observational CROMIS-2 ICH study. Death was defined as 'early' if occurring within 6 months of study entry and 'late' if occurring after this time point. RESULTS: In our cohort (n = 1094), there were 306 deaths (per 100 patient-years: absolute event rate, 11.7; 95% confidence intervals, 10.5-13.1); 156 were 'early' and 150 'late'. In multivariable analyses, early death was independently associated with age [per year increase; hazard ratio (HR), 1.05, P = 0.003], history of hypertension (HR, 1.89, P = 0.038), pre-event modified Rankin scale score (per point increase; HR, 1.41, P < 0.0001), admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (per point increase; HR, 1.11, P < 0.0001) and haemorrhage volume >60 mL (HR, 4.08, P < 0.0001). Late death showed independent associations with age (per year increase; HR, 1.04, P = 0.003), pre-event modified Rankin scale score (per point increase; HR, 1.42, P = 0.001), prior anticoagulant use (HR, 2.13, P = 0.028) and the presence of intraventricular extension (HR, 1.73, P = 0.033) in multivariable analyses. In further analyses where time was treated as continuous (rather than dichotomized), the HR of previous cerebral ischaemic events increased with time, whereas HRs for Glasgow Coma Scale score, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score and ICH volume decreased over time. CONCLUSIONS: We provide new evidence that not all baseline factors associated with early mortality after ICH are associated with mortality after 6 months and that the effects of baseline variables change over time. Our findings could help design better prognostic scores for later death after ICH.

Angiosome Specific Revascularisation: Does the Evidence Support It?

OBJECTIVE: To explain the angiosome concept and explore the practical application of the angiosome literature to a clinical scenario, in this case a tibial angioplasty for critical ischaemia. METHODS: Clinical vignette with explanation of the decisions made and subsequent clinical results based on the theory of the angiosome concept and the literature on angiosomal revascularisation; in this case the results of our group's recent update to a systematic review and meta-analysis. RESULTS: Endovascular combined or direct angiosomal revascularisation if superior to indirect revascularisation. This was borne out in the clinical scenario, where an indirect peroneal reperfusion of the AT angiosome resulted in major amputation. Open surgery is less dependent on the angiosome concept. The presence of adequate collateralisation into a foot arch seems to be the most important factor predicting success of indirect revascularisation. The evidence for both suffers from selection bias and many of the findings in the literature are wholly due to selection bias. CONCLUSION: The angiosome concept is useful during both open and endovascular tibial revascularisation. However, the runoff in the foot is critical to success and may not follow the 'classic' angiosome model in diabetes.

ESHRE/ESGE female genital tract anomalies classification system-the potential impact of discarding arcuate uterus on clinical practice.

STUDY QUESTION: What would be a potential impact of implementing the new ESHRE/European Society of Gynaecological Endoscopy (ESGE) female genital anomalies classification system on the management of women with previous diagnosis of arcuate uteri based on the modified American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM) criteria? SUMMARY ANSWER: A significant number of women with previous diagnosis of arcuate uteri are reclassified as having partial septate uteri according to the new ESHRE/ESGE classification system which may increase the number of remedial surgical procedures. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The ESHRE/ESGE classification system has defined measurement techniques, reference points and specific cut-offs to facilitate the differentiation between normal and septate uteri. These criteria have been arbitrarily defined and they rely on the measurement of uterine wall thickness and depth of distortion of uterine fundus. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This was a retrospective cohort study. We searched our ultrasound clinic database from January 2011 to December 2014 to identify all women diagnosed with arcuate uterus on three-dimensional ultrasound according to the modified ASRM criteria. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: For each woman, the ultrasound images were stored in our clinical database and they were re-examined according to ESHRE/ESGE specifications. The presence and location of all acquired uterine anomalies, such as fibroids or adenomyosis was noted. We applied the two diagnostic approaches as specified by the ESHRE/ESGE classification: the main option (MO) and the alternative option (AO). We used the Kappa statistic to quantify the agreement between the two approaches. We also compared the number of previous miscarriages in women with normal and partial septate uteri according to the ESHRE/ESGE classification. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used for the analyses and receiver-operating characteristic curves were constructed to assess the predictive values of the calculated uterine distortion indices for the detection of women at risk of suffering multiple pregnancy losses. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We included 270 women diagnosed with arcuate uterus in the study. In all, 77 women (28.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 23.1-33.9) had evidence of fibroids or adenomyosis. These abnormalities precluded the application of either proposed ESHRE/ESGE techniques to assess uterine morphology in 25 women (9.3%, 95% CI 5.8-12.7). When using the MO, 138/237 (58.2%, 95% CI 51.9-64.3) women were diagnosed with partial septate uterus compared to 61/230 (26.5%, 95% CI 21.2-32.6) women when using the AO. In 222 women in whom we were able to apply both MO and AO, there was agreement in the diagnosis of septate uterus between the two techniques in 146/222 cases (65.8%, 95% CI 59.3-71.7; Kappa 0.42, 95%CI 0.35-0.5). There was no statistical difference in the proportion of women with history of previous multiple miscarriages between those diagnosed with normal or partial septate uteri using either MO (6.2%, 95% CI 2.9-12.9 vs. 9.5%, 95% CI 5.6-15.6; P = 0.47) or AO (7.2%, 95% CI 4.2-12.1 vs. 11.7%, 95% CI 5.8-22.2; P = 0.29). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: This study was retrospective in nature and the definition of arcuate uterus used in the study is not universally accepted. The reproductive history data were collected retrospectively and therefore may be prone to bias. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: There are methodological weaknesses in the new ESHRE/ESGE classification system which would need to be addressed in future revisions. There was no significant difference in the past reproductive outcomes between women diagnosed with normal and anomalous uteri and the clinicians should exercise caution when offering surgical correction to women diagnosed with partial septate uteri using the new ESHRE/ESGE classification. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): No study funding was received and no competing interests are present. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Prospective evaluation of IOTA logistic regression models LR1 and LR2 in comparison with subjective pattern recognition for diagnosis of ovarian cancer in an outpatient setting.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) logistic regression models LR1 and LR2 developed for the preoperative diagnosis of ovarian cancer could also be used to differentiate between benign and malignant adnexal tumors in the population of women attending gynecology outpatient clinics. METHODS: This was a single-center prospective observational study of consecutive women attending our gynecological diagnostic outpatient unit, recruited between May 2009 and January 2012. All the women were first examined by a Level-II ultrasound operator. In those diagnosed with adnexal tumors, the IOTA-LR1/2 protocol was used to evaluate the masses. The LR1 and LR2 models were then used to assess the risk of malignancy. Subsequently, the women were also examined by a Level-III examiner, who used pattern recognition to differentiate between benign and malignant tumors. Women with an ultrasound diagnosis of malignancy were offered surgery, while asymptomatic women with presumed benign lesions were offered conservative management with a minimum follow-up of 12 months. The initial diagnosis was compared with two reference standards: histological findings and/or a comparative assessment of tumor morphology on follow-up ultrasound scans. All women for whom the tumor classification on follow-up changed from benign to malignant were offered surgery. RESULTS: In the final analysis, 489 women who had either or both of the reference standards were included. Their mean age was 50 years (range, 16-91 years) and 45% were postmenopausal. Of the included women, 342/489 (69.9%) had surgery and 147/489 (30.1%) were managed conservatively. The malignancy rate was 137/489 (28.0%). Overall, sensitivities of LR1 and LR2 for the diagnosis of malignancy were 97.1% (95% CI, 92.7-99.2%) and 94.9% (95% CI, 89.8-97.9%) and specificities were 77.3% (95% CI, 72.5-81.5%) and 76.7% (95% CI, 71.9-81.0%), respectively (P > 0.05). In comparison with pattern recognition (sensitivity 94.2% (95% CI, 88.8-97.4%), specificity 96.3% (95% CI, 93.8-98.0%)), the specificities of the IOTA models were significantly lower (P < 0.0001). A significantly higher number of women would have been offered surgery for suspected cancer if the women had been assessed using the IOTA models instead of pattern recognition (213/489 (43.6%) vs 142/489 (29.0%); P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The IOTA models maintained their high sensitivity when used in an outpatient setting. Specificity was relatively low, which indicates that a significant proportion of the women would have been offered unnecessary surgery for suspected ovarian cancer. These findings show that the IOTA models could be used as a first-stage test to diagnose ovarian cancer in an outpatient setting, but a different second-stage test is required to minimize the number of false-positive findings. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Single-dose systemic methotrexate vs expectant management for treatment of tubal ectopic pregnancy: a placebo-controlled randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: Methotrexate is used routinely worldwide for the medical treatment of clinically stable women with a tubal ectopic pregnancy. This is despite the lack of robust evidence to show its superior effectiveness over expectant management. The aim of our multicenter randomized controlled trial was to compare success rates of methotrexate against placebo for the conservative treatment of tubal ectopic pregnancy. METHODS: This study took place in two early-pregnancy units in the UK between August 2005 and June 2014. Inclusion criteria were clinically stable women with a conclusive ultrasound diagnosis of a tubal ectopic pregnancy, presenting with a low serum beta human chorionic gonadotropin (ß-hCG) level of < 1500 IU/L. Women were assigned randomly to a single systemic injection of either 50 mg/m2 methotrexate or placebo. The primary outcome was a binary indicator for success of conservative management, defined as resolution of clinical symptoms and decline of serum ß-hCG to < 20 IU/L or a negative urine pregnancy test without the need for any additional medical intervention. An intention-to-treat analysis was followed. RESULTS: We recruited a total of 80 women, 42 of whom were assigned to methotrexate and 38 to placebo. The arms of the study were matched in terms of age, ethnicity, obstetric history, pregnancy characteristics and serum levels of ß-hCG and progesterone. The rates of success were similar for the two study arms: 83% with methotrexate and 76% with placebo. On univariate analysis, this difference was not statistically significant (χ2 (1 degree of freedom) = 0.53; P = 0.47). On multivariate logistic regression, the serum level of ß-hCG was the only covariate found to be significantly associated with outcome. The odds of failure increased by 0.15% for each unit increase in ß-hCG (odds ratio, 1.0015 (95% CI, 1.0002-1.003); P = 0.02). In 14 women presenting with serum ß-hCG of 1000-1500 IU/L, the success rate was 33% in those managed expectantly compared with 62% in those receiving methotrexate. This difference was not statistically significant and a larger sample size would be needed to give sufficient power to detect a difference in the subgroup of women with higher ß-hCG. In women with successful conservative treatment, there was no significant difference in median ß-hCG resolution times between study arms (17.5 (interquartile range (IQR), 14-28.0) days (n = 30) in the methotrexate group vs 14 (IQR, 7-29.5) days (n = 25) in the placebo group; P = 0.73). CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study do not support the routine use of methotrexate for the treatment of clinically stable women diagnosed with tubal ectopic pregnancy presenting with low serum ß-hCG (< 1500 IU/L). Further work is required to identify a subgroup of women with tubal ectopic pregnancy and ß-hCG ≥ 1500 IU/L in whom methotrexate may offer a safe and cost-effective alternative to surgery. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Comparación entre una sola dosis de metotrexate sistémico y la conducta expectante en el tratamiento de casos de embarazo ectópico tubárico: un ensayo aleatorio controlado con placebo RESUMEN OBJETIVO: El metotrexate se utiliza de modo rutinario en todo el mundo para el tratamiento de las mujeres clínicamente estables con un embarazo ectópico tubárico. Esto sucede a pesar de la falta de evidencia rigurosa que demuestre que su eficacia es superior a la conducta expectante. El objetivo de este ensayo controlado aleatorio multicéntrico fue comparar las tasas de éxito del metotrexate con las de un placebo para el tratamiento cauteloso del embarazo ectópico tubárico. MÉTODOS: Este estudio se llevó a cabo en dos clínicas de control de gestación temprana en el Reino Unido entre agosto de 2005 y junio de 2014. Los criterios de inclusión fueron mujeres clínicamente estables con un diagnóstico ecográfico concluyente de embarazo ectópico tubárico, las cuáles presentaban una concentración sérica baja de la ß hormona coriónica gonadotrópica (ß-hCG) inferior a 1500 UI/L. Las mujeres fueron asignadas aleatoriamente a una sola inyección sistémica de 50 mg/m2 de metotrexate o a placebo. El resultado primario fue un indicador binario del éxito del tratamiento conservador, definido como la resolución de los síntomas clínicos y la disminución en el suero de la ß-hCG a <20 UI/L o una prueba de embarazo negativa en orina sin la necesidad de ninguna intervención médica adicional. Se hizo un análisis por intención de tratar. RESULTADOS: Se reclutó un total de 80 mujeres; a 42 de ellas se les asignó el metotrexate y a 38 el placebo. Los grupos del estudio se realizaron en función de la edad, el origen étnico, los antecedentes obstétricos, las características del embarazo y los niveles séricos de la ß-hCG y la progesterona. Las tasas de éxito fueron similares para los dos grupos de estudio: 83% con metotrexate y 76% con placebo. En el análisis univariante, esta diferencia no fue estadísticamente significativa (χ2 (1 grado de libertad) = 0,53; P = 0,47). En la regresión logística multivariante, el nivel sérico de la ß-hCG fue la única covariable que se encontró significativamente asociada con el resultado. Las probabilidades de fracaso aumentaron en un 0,15% por cada unidad de aumento de la ß-hCG (cociente de probabilidad 1,0015 (IC 95%, 1,0002-1,003); P = 0,02). La tasa de éxito en las 14 mujeres con un nivel sérico de la ß-hCG de 1000-1500 UI/L fue del 33% en las tratadas con conducta expectante frente al 62% en las que recibieron metotrexate. Esta diferencia no fue estadísticamente significativa, por lo que se necesitaría un tamaño de muestra mayor, lo suficiente como para poder detectar diferencias en el subgrupo de mujeres con una ß-hCG más elevada. En las mujeres en las que el tratamiento conservador tuvo éxito, no hubo una diferencia significativa en la mediana de los tiempos de resolución de la ß-hCG entre los grupos del estudio (17,5 (amplitud intercuartílica (IQR), 14-28,0) días (n = 30) en el grupo de metotrexate frente a 14 (IQR, 7-29.5) días (n = 25) en el grupo de placebo; P = 0,73). CONCLUSIONES: Los resultados de este estudio no apoyan el uso rutinario de metotrexate para el tratamiento de las mujeres clínicamente estables diagnosticadas con un embarazo ectópico tubárico que presenta un nivel sérico bajo la ß-hCG (<1500 UI/L). Serán necesarios estudios adicionales para identificar un subgrupo de mujeres con embarazo ectópico tubárico y ß-hCG ≥1500 UI/L para quienes el metotrexate puede ofrecer una alternativa segura y rentable en comparación con la cirugía. : : ,,。。 : 2005820146,2。,,ß(beta human chorionic gonadotropin,ß-hCG)<1500 IU/L。,(50 mg/m2 )。,ß-hCG<20 IU/L,。。 : 80,42,38。2、、、ß-hCG。2:83%,76%。,[χ2 (1)=0.53;P=0.47]。logistic,ß-hCG。ß-hCG,0.15%[,1.0015(95% CI,1.0002~1.003);P=0.02]。14ß-hCG1000~1500 IU/L,33%,62%。,ß-hCG。,2ß-hCG(P=0.73),17.5[(interquartile range,IQR),14~28.0](n=30),14 (IQR,7~29.5)(n=25)。 : 、、ß-hCG(<1500 IU/L)。,ß-hCG>1500 IU/L、。.

The effect of neoadjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiotherapy on exercise capacity and outcome following upper gastrointestinal cancer surgery: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In 2014 approximately 21,200 patients were diagnosed with oesophageal and gastric cancer in England and Wales, of whom 37 % underwent planned curative treatments. Potentially curative surgical resection is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. For operable locally advanced disease, neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) improves survival over surgery alone. However, NAC carries the risk of toxicity and is associated with a decrease in physical fitness, which may in turn influence subsequent clinical outcome. Lower levels of physical fitness are associated with worse outcome following major surgery in general and Upper Gastrointestinal Surgery (UGI) surgery in particular. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) provides an objective assessment of physical fitness. The aim of this study is to test the hypothesis that NAC prior to upper gastrointestinal cancer surgery is associated with a decrease in physical fitness and that the magnitude of the change in physical fitness will predict mortality 1 year following surgery. METHODS: This study is a multi-centre, prospective, blinded, observational cohort study of participants with oesophageal and gastric cancer scheduled for neoadjuvant cancer treatment (chemo- and chemoradiotherapy) and surgery. The primary endpoints are physical fitness (oxygen uptake at lactate threshold measured using CPET) and 1-year mortality following surgery; secondary endpoints include post-operative morbidity (Post-Operative Morbidity Survey (POMS)) 5 days after surgery and patient related quality of life (EQ-5D-5 L). DISCUSSION: The principal benefits of this study, if the underlying hypothesis is correct, will be to facilitate better selection of treatments (e.g. NAC, Surgery) in patients with oesophageal or gastric cancer. It may also be possible to develop new treatments to reduce the effects of neoadjuvant cancer treatment on physical fitness. These results will contribute to the design of a large, multi-centre trial to determine whether an in-hospital exercise-training programme that increases physical fitness leads to improved overall survival. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01325883 - 29(th) March 2011.

Effect of frailty on short- and mid-term outcomes in vascular surgical patients.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a multidimensional vulnerability resulting from age-associated decline. The impact of frailty on outcomes was assessed in a cohort of vascular surgical patients. METHODS: The study included patients aged over 65 years with length of hospital stay (LOS) greater than 2 days, who were admitted to a tertiary vascular unit over a single calendar year. Demographics, mode of admission, diagnosis, mortality, LOS and discharge destination were recorded, as well as a variety of frailty-specific characteristics. The impact of frailty on LOS, discharge destination, survival and readmission rate was assessed using multivariable regression techniques. The ability of the models to predict these outcomes was also assessed. RESULTS: In total, 413 patients of median age 77 years were followed for a median of 18 (range 12-24) months. The in-hospital, 3- and 12-month mortality rates were 3·6, 8·5 and 13·8 per cent respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed that frailty-based regression models were excellent predictors of 12-month mortality (area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0·81), prolonged LOS (AUC = 0·79) and discharge to a care institution (AUC = 0·84). A simple additive frailty score using six key features retained strong predictive power for 12-month mortality (AUC = 0·83), discharge to a care institution (AUC = 0·78) and prolonged LOS (AUC = 0·74). This frailty score was also strongly associated with readmission rates (P < 0·001). CONCLUSION: Frailty in vascular surgery patients predicts a multiplicity of poorer outcomes. Optimal management should include identification of at-risk patients and treatment of modifiable risk factors.

Incidence and Outcomes of Severe Renal Impairment Following Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair.

INTRODUCTION: Acute kidney injury (AKI) following ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) repair is common and multifactorial. A standard definition of AKI after endovascular repair (EVAR), the Aneurysm Renal Injury Score (ARISe), has been proposed to facilitate standardised reporting and thus improve understanding of this issue. METHODS: Data were collected retrospectively on AKI in a prospectively maintained database of all patients treated for rAAA in a single tertiary referral centre since the availability of routine out of hours emergency EVAR. The ARISe score was used to describe the degree of AKI and factors which correlated with poor renal outcomes were assessed. RESULTS: Two-hundred and five patients were treated between January 2006 and April 2014. Of these, 125 were treated with open repair (OSR) and 80 were treated with EVAR. Severe AKI (defined as ARISe score ≥3) occurred in 36% of patients. After correction for confounders, patients treated with OSR were significantly more likely to develop severe AKI (43% vs. 26%, p = .02). There was no significant difference in preoperative serum creatinine between groups, but increased preoperative serum creatinine was strongly associated with severe AKI postoperatively (p < .001). Age, sex, endograft type, and preoperative CT scanning were not associated with differences in renal outcomes. Clamp position above renal arteries was predictive of severe AKI in patients treated with OSR (p < .01). Patients suffering severe AKI had significantly higher mortality at 30 days and 12 months (28% vs. 5% and 44% vs. 13%, p < .001 for both comparisons). CONCLUSION: Severe AKI is common following successful repair of rAAA. In this large case series of high-risk patients, OSR was associated with significantly higher rates of severe AKI compared with EVAR, despite the increased dose of contrast involved in EVAR and the older age of these patients. In turn, severe AKI was associated with higher mortality rates.

Pharmacogenomics of insulin-like growth factor-I generation during GH treatment in children with GH deficiency or Turner syndrome.

Individual responses to growth hormone (GH) treatment are variable. Short-term generation of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) is recognized as a potential marker of sensitivity to GH treatment. This prospective, phase IV study used an integrated genomic analysis to identify markers associated with 1-month change in IGF-I (ΔIGF-I) following initiation of recombinant human (r-h)GH therapy in treatment-naïve children with GH deficiency (GHD) (n=166) or Turner syndrome (TS) (n=147). In both GHD and TS, polymorphisms in the cell-cycle regulator CDK4 were associated with 1-month ΔIGF-I (P<0.05). Baseline gene expression was also correlated with 1-month ΔIGF-I in both GHD and TS (r=0.3; P<0.01). In patients with low IGF-I responses, carriage of specific CDK4 alleles was associated with MAPK and glucocorticoid receptor signaling in GHD, and with p53 and Wnt signaling pathways in TS. Understanding the relationship between genomic markers and early changes in IGF-I may allow development of strategies to rapidly individualize r-hGH dose.

Mid-term cost-effectiveness analysis of open and endovascular repair for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

BACKGROUND: Emergency endovascular repair (EVAR) for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) may have lower operative mortality rates than open surgical repair. Concerns remain that the early survival benefit after EVAR for rAAA may be offset by late reinterventions. The aim of this study was to compare reintervention rates and cost-effectiveness of EVAR and open repair for rAAA. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was undertaken of patients with rAAA undergoing EVAR or open repair over 6 years. A health economic model developed for the cost-effectiveness of elective EVAR was used in the emergency setting. RESULTS: Sixty-two patients (mean age 77·9 years) underwent EVAR and 85 (mean age 75·9 years) had open repair of rAAA. Median follow-up was 42 and 39 months respectively. There was no significant difference in 30-day mortality rates after EVAR and open repair (18 and 26 per cent respectively; P = 0·243). Reintervention rates were also similar (32 and 31 per cent; P = 0·701). The mean cost per patient was €26,725 for EVAR and €30,297 for open repair, and the cost per life-year gained was €7906 and €9933 respectively (P = 0·561). Open repair had greater initial costs: longer procedural times (217 versus 178·5 min; P < 0·001) and intensive care stay (5·0 versus 1·0 days; P = 0·015). Conversely, EVAR had greater reintervention (€156,939 versus €35,335; P = 0·001) and surveillance (P < 0·001) costs. CONCLUSION: There was no significant difference in reintervention rates after EVAR or open repair for rAAA. EVAR was as cost-effective at mid-term follow-up. The increased procedural costs of open repair are not outweighed by greater surveillance and reintervention costs after EVAR.

Early elevation of albumin excretion rate is associated with poor gluten-free diet adherence in young people with coeliac disease and diabetes.

AIMS: There are conflicting data on microvascular complications in coexisting Type 1 diabetes and coeliac disease. We compared complications rates in youth with or without coeliac disease and examined the association between gluten-free diet adherence and complications. METHODS: This was a comparative study of adolescents (2510 without coeliac disease, 129 with coeliac disease); 60 (47%) did not adhere to a gluten-free diet--defined as elevated anti-tissue transglutaminase or endomysial immunoglobulin A titres. Retinopathy was detected using 7-field fundal photography and albumin excretion rate by timed overnight urine collections, with early elevation defined as albumin excretion rate ≥ 7.5 µg/min. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between complications and explanatory variables, including coeliac disease vs. no coeliac disease, gluten-free diet adherence vs. non-adherence, diabetes duration and HbA1c . RESULTS: Median age at last assessment was 16.5 years. Those with coeliac disease vs. those without were younger at diabetes diagnosis (7.1 vs. 8.6 years, P < 0.001) and had longer diabetes duration (9.3 vs. 7.2 years, P < 0.001). HbA1c was lower in those with coeliac disease vs. those without (67 vs. 70 mmol/mol, 8.3 vs. 8.6%, P = 0.04) and adherence to a gluten-free diet vs. non-adherence (66 vs. 72 mmol/mol, 8.2 vs. 8.7%, P = 0.003). There were no differences in complication rates between those with coeliac disease vs. those without (retinopathy 22 vs. 23%, elevated albumin excretion rate 31 vs. 28%). Non-adherence to a gluten-free diet was associated with elevated albumin excretion rate (40 vs. 23%, P = 0.04). In multivariable logistic regression, elevated albumin excretion rate was associated with non-adherence to a gluten-free diet (odds ratio 2.37, 95% CI 1.04-5.40, P = 0.04) and diabetes duration (odds ratio 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.25, P = 0.03), but not HbA1c . CONCLUSIONS: While glycaemic control is better in patients with coeliac disease, non-adherence to a gluten-free diet is associated with elevated albumin excretion rate. The possible protection of a gluten-free diet on complications warrants further investigation.

Survival following ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm before and during the IMPROVE Trial: a single-centre series.

OBJECTIVES: The first large-scale randomised trial (Immediate Management of the Patient with Rupture: Open Versus Endovascular repair [IMPROVE]) for endovascular repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rEVAR) has recently finished recruiting patients. The aim of this study was to examine the impact on survival after rEVAR when the IMPROVE protocol was initiated in a high volume abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) centre previously performing rEVAR. METHODS: One hundred and sixty-nine patients requiring emergency infrarenal AAA repair from January 2006 to April 2013 were included. Eighty-four patients were treated before (38 rEVAR, 46 open) and 85 (31 rEVAR, 54 open) were treated during the trial period. A retrospective analysis was performed. RESULTS: Before the trial, there was a significant survival benefit for rEVAR over open repair (90-day mortality 13% vs. 30%, p = .04, difference remained significant up to 2 years postoperatively). This survival benefit was lost after starting randomisation (90-day mortality 35% vs. 33%, p = .93). There was an increase in overall 30-day mortality from 15% to 31% (p = .02), while there was no change for open repair (p = .438). There was a significant decrease in general anaesthetic use (p = .002) for patients treated during the trial. Randomised patients had shorter hospital and intensive treatment unit stays (p = .006 and p = .03 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The change in survival seen during the IMROVE trial highlights the need for randomised rather than cohort data to eliminate selection bias. These results from a single centre reinforce those recently reported in IMPROVE.

Use of IOTA simple rules for diagnosis of ovarian cancer: meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To present data on prospective evaluation of the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) 'simple-rules' tool for the diagnosis of ovarian cancer and to perform a meta-analysis of studies that utilized the same diagnostic method. METHODS: In the present study a level-II ultrasound operator systematically assessed the tumors of women with an ultrasound diagnosis of adnexal tumor(s) according to the IOTA simple-rules protocol to determine the risk of the tumor being malignant. The results of simple rules were compared with the 'pattern recognition' method and with histological findings. This validation study was included in the subsequent meta-analysis, for which we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane from the publication of the first study in 2008. The terms used were 'simple rules', 'simple rules ovarian', 'ovar tumor' and 'ultrasound'. Quality assessment was performed using the modified Quality Assessment of the Diagnostic Accuracy of Studies (QUADAS-2) checklist. Random effects meta-analysis was used to calculate pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity for the simple-rules tool, and meta-regression was used to investigate heterogeneity across the studies. RESULTS: Three hundred and three women were included in the validation study with 168 (55.4%) benign, 19 (6.3%) borderline and 116 (38.3%) malignant tumors on histological examination. The rules were applicable in 237 (78.2%) of the tumors and for these tumors, sensitivity was 96.2% (95% CI, 90.5-99.0%) and specificity was 88.6% (95% CI, 82.0-93.5%). Six of the 88 discovered studies were included in the meta-analysis along with the current validation study, which resulted in inclusion of a total of 3568 patients. When the meta-analysis was performed the pooled sensitivity (when the rules were applicable) was 93% (95% CI, 90-96%) (I(2) = 32.1%) and the pooled specificity was 95% (95% CI, 93-97%) (I(2) = 78.1%). Heterogeneity was observed across the studies. Sensitivity was higher and specificity lower in the study populations in which the prevalence of malignant tumors was greatest. CONCLUSION: The simple rules protocol could be used in 76-89% of tumors and is an accurate test for the diagnosis of ovarian cancer. Assessment by an ultrasound expert is required when the protocol cannot be applied.

The relationship between happiness and intelligent quotient: the contribution of socio-economic and clinical factors.

BACKGROUND: Happiness and higher intelligent quotient (IQ) are independently related to positive health outcomes. However, there are inconsistent reports about the relationship between IQ and happiness. The aim was to examine the association between IQ and happiness and whether it is mediated by social and clinical factors. Method The authors analysed data from the 2007 Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey in England. The participants were adults aged 16 years or over, living in private households in 2007. Data from 6870 participants were included in the study. Happiness was measured using a validated question on a three-point scale. Verbal IQ was estimated using the National Adult Reading Test and both categorical and continuous IQ was analysed. RESULTS: Happiness is significantly associated with IQ. Those in the lowest IQ range (70-99) reported the lowest levels of happiness compared with the highest IQ group (120-129). Mediation analysis using the continuous IQ variable found dependency in activities of daily living, income, health and neurotic symptoms were strong mediators of the relationship, as they reduced the association between happiness and IQ by 50%. CONCLUSIONS: Those with lower IQ are less happy than those with higher IQ. Interventions that target modifiable variables such as income (e.g. through enhancing education and employment opportunities) and neurotic symptoms (e.g. through better detection of mental health problems) may improve levels of happiness in the lower IQ groups.

Whole-brain diffusion tensor imaging predicts 6-month functional outcome in acute intracerebral haemorrhage.

INTRODUCTION: Small vessel disease (SVD) causes most spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and is associated with widespread microstructural brain tissue disruption, which can be quantified via diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) metrics: mean diffusivity (MD) and fractional anisotropy (FA). Little is known about the impact of whole-brain microstructural alterations after SVD-related ICH. We aimed to investigate: (1) association between whole-brain DTI metrics and functional outcome after ICH; and (2) predictive ability of these metrics compared to the pre-existing ICH score. METHODS: Sixty-eight patients (38.2% lobar) were retrospectively included. We assessed whole-brain DTI metrics (obtained within 5 days after ICH) in cortical and deep grey matter and white matter. We used univariable logistic regression to assess the associations between DTI and clinical-radiological variables and poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale > 2). We determined the optimal predictive variables (via LASSO estimation) in: model 1 (DTI variables only), model 2 (DTI plus non-DTI variables), model 3 (DTI plus ICH score). Optimism-adjusted C-statistics were calculated for each model and compared (likelihood ratio test) against the ICH score. RESULTS: Deep grey matter MD (OR 1.04 [95% CI 1.01-1.07], p = 0.010) and white matter MD (OR 1.11 [95% CI 1.01-1.23], p = 0.044) were associated (univariate analysis) with poor outcome. Discrimination values for model 1 (0.67 [95% CI 0.52-0.83]), model 2 (0.71 [95% CI 0.57-0.85) and model 3 (0.66 [95% CI 0.52-0.82]) were all significantly higher than the ICH score (0.62 [95% CI 0.49-0.75]). CONCLUSION: Our exploratory study suggests that whole-brain microstructural disruption measured by DTI is associated with poor 6-month functional outcome after SVD-related ICH. Whole-brain DTI metrics performed better at predicting recovery than the existing ICH score.

Coeliac disease in Type 1 diabetes from 1990 to 2009: higher incidence in young children after longer diabetes duration.

AIMS: To determine the incidence of coeliac disease in young people with Type 1 diabetes and to examine the effect of age at diabetes onset and disease duration. METHODS: This was a clinic-based observational cohort study of 4379 people aged ≤ 18 years (49% male) between 1990 and 2009 from Sydney, Australia. Screening for coeliac disease was performed at diagnosis and 1-2 yearly using anti-endomysial and/or anti-tissue transglutaminase immunoglobulin A (IgA) antibodies. Coeliac disease was diagnosed by small bowel biopsy based on Marsh score ≥ III. RESULTS: Coeliac disease was confirmed by biopsy in 185; of these, 61 (33%) were endomysial or tissue transglutaminase IgA antibody-positive at diabetes diagnosis. Mean age at diabetes onset was 6.6 ± 4.0 vs. 8.4 ± 4.1 years in those without coeliac disease (P < 0.001). Mean incidence was 7.7 per 1000 person years (95% CI 6.6-8.9) over 20 years. Incidence was higher in children aged < 5 years at diabetes diagnosis (10.4 per 1000 person years) vs. ≥ 5 years (6.4 per 1000), incidence rate ratio 1.6 (95% CI 1.2-2.2, P = 0.002). Coeliac disease was diagnosed after 2, 5 and 10 years of diabetes in 45, 78 and 94% of cases, respectively. Median time to coeliac disease diagnosis was longer in children aged < 5 years at diabetes onset (3.3 years) compared with older children (0.7 years, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Coeliac disease is common in young people with Type 1 diabetes; the risk is greatest with diabetes onset < 5 years, but after longer diabetes duration. Screening for coeliac disease should be performed at diabetes diagnosis and for at least 10 years in young children.