Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas.

Detailed characterization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission across different settings can help design less disruptive interventions. We used real-time, privacy-enhanced mobility data in the New York City, NY and Seattle, WA metropolitan areas to build a detailed agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 infection to estimate the where, when, and magnitude of transmission events during the pandemic's first wave. We estimate that only 18% of individuals produce most infections (80%), with about 10% of events that can be considered superspreading events (SSEs). Although mass gatherings present an important risk for SSEs, we estimate that the bulk of transmission occurred in smaller events in settings like workplaces, grocery stores, or food venues. The places most important for transmission change during the pandemic and are different across cities, signaling the large underlying behavioral component underneath them. Our modeling complements case studies and epidemiological data and indicates that real-time tracking of transmission events could help evaluate and define targeted mitigation policies.

Scaffolding cooperation in human groups with deep reinforcement learning.

Effective approaches to encouraging group cooperation are still an open challenge. Here we apply recent advances in deep learning to structure networks of human participants playing a group cooperation game. We leverage deep reinforcement learning and simulation methods to train a 'social planner' capable of making recommendations to create or break connections between group members. The strategy that it develops succeeds at encouraging pro-sociality in networks of human participants (N = 208 participants in 13 groups) playing for real monetary stakes. Under the social planner, groups finished the game with an average cooperation rate of 77.7%, compared with 42.8% in static networks (N = 176 in 11 groups). In contrast to prior strategies that separate defectors from cooperators (tested here with N = 384 in 24 groups), the social planner learns to take a conciliatory approach to defectors, encouraging them to act pro-socially by moving them to small highly cooperative neighbourhoods.