Tirzepatide for Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis with Liver Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is a progressive liver disease associated with liver-related complications and death. The efficacy and safety of tirzepatide, an agonist of the glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptors, in patients with MASH and moderate or severe fibrosis is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a phase 2, dose-finding, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial involving participants with biopsy-confirmed MASH and stage F2 or F3 (moderate or severe) fibrosis. Participants were randomly assigned to receive once-weekly subcutaneous tirzepatide (5 mg, 10 mg, or 15 mg) or placebo for 52 weeks. The primary end point was resolution of MASH without worsening of fibrosis at 52 weeks. A key secondary end point was an improvement (decrease) of at least one fibrosis stage without worsening of MASH. RESULTS: Among 190 participants who had undergone randomization, 157 had liver-biopsy results at week 52 that could be evaluated, with missing values imputed under the assumption that they would follow the pattern of results in the placebo group. The percentage of participants who met the criteria for resolution of MASH without worsening of fibrosis was 10% in the placebo group, 44% in the 5-mg tirzepatide group (difference vs. placebo, 34 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 17 to 50), 56% in the 10-mg tirzepatide group (difference, 46 percentage points; 95% CI, 29 to 62), and 62% in the 15-mg tirzepatide group (difference, 53 percentage points; 95% CI, 37 to 69) (P<0.001 for all three comparisons). The percentage of participants who had an improvement of at least one fibrosis stage without worsening of MASH was 30% in the placebo group, 55% in the 5-mg tirzepatide group (difference vs. placebo, 25 percentage points; 95% CI, 5 to 46), 51% in the 10-mg tirzepatide group (difference, 22 percentage points; 95% CI, 1 to 42), and 51% in the 15-mg tirzepatide group (difference, 21 percentage points; 95% CI, 1 to 42). The most common adverse events in the tirzepatide groups were gastrointestinal events, and most were mild or moderate in severity. CONCLUSIONS: In this phase 2 trial involving participants with MASH and moderate or severe fibrosis, treatment with tirzepatide for 52 weeks was more effective than placebo with respect to resolution of MASH without worsening of fibrosis. Larger and longer trials are needed to further assess the efficacy and safety of tirzepatide for the treatment of MASH. (Funded by Eli Lilly; SYNERGY-NASH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04166773.).

Aramchol improves hepatic fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis: Results of multimodality assessment using both conventional and digital pathology.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Antifibrotic trials rely on conventional pathology despite recognized limitations. We compared single-fiber digital image analysis with conventional pathology to quantify the antifibrotic effect of Aramchol, a stearoyl-CoA desaturase 1 inhibitor in development for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Fifty-one patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis enrolled in the open-label part of the ARMOR trial received Aramchol 300 mg BID and had paired pre-post treatment liver biopsies scored by consensus among 3 hepatopathologists, and separately assessed by a digital image analysis platform (PharmaNest) that generates a continuous phenotypic Fibrosis Composite Severity (Ph-FCS) score. Fibrosis improvement was defined as: ≥1 NASH Clinical Research Network (NASH-CRN) stage reduction; "improved" by ranked pair assessment; reduction in Ph-FCS ("any" for ≥0.3 absolute reduction and "substantial" for ≥25% relative reduction). Fibrosis improved in 31% of patients (NASH-CRN), 51% (ranked pair assessment), 74.5% (any Ph-FCS reduction), and 41% (substantial Ph-FCS reduction). Most patients with stable fibrosis by NASH-CRN or ranked pair assessment had a Ph-FCS reduction (a third with substantial reduction). Fibrosis improvement increased with treatment duration: 25% for <48 weeks versus 39% for ≥48 weeks by NASH-CRN; 43% versus 61% by ranked pair assessment, mean Ph-FCS reduction -0.54 (SD: 1.22) versus -1.72 (SD: 1.02); Ph-FCS reduction (any in 54% vs. 100%, substantial in 21% vs. 65%). The antifibrotic effect of Aramchol was corroborated by reductions in liver stiffness, Pro-C3, and enhanced liver fibrosis. Changes in Ph-FCS were positively correlated with changes in liver stiffness. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous fibrosis scores generated in antifibrotic trials by digital image analysis quantify antifibrotic effects with greater sensitivity and a larger dynamic range than conventional pathology.

Liver stiffness progression in biopsy-proven metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic disease among people with diabetes versus people without diabetes: A prospective multicenter study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There are limited data on the progression of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) versus those without T2DM in biopsy-proven metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease. We examined LSM progression in participants with T2DM versus those without T2DM in a large, prospective, multicenter cohort study. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This study included 1231 adult participants (62% female) with biopsy-proven metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease who had VCTEs at least 1 year apart. LSM progression and regression were defined by a ≥20% increase and an upward or downward change, respectively, in the LSM category in the Baveno VII categories for compensated advanced chronic liver disease, compared between participants with T2DM (n = 680) versus no T2DM (n = 551) at baseline. The mean (±SD) age and body mass index were 51.8 (±12.0) years and 34.0 (±6.5) kg/m 2 , respectively. The median (IQR) time between the first and last VCTE measurements was 4.1 (2.5-6.5) years. Participants with T2DM had higher LSM progression at 4 years (12% vs. 10%), 6 years (23% vs. 16%), and 8 years (50% vs. 39%), p = 0.04. Using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for multiple confounders, the presence of T2DM remained an independent predictor of LSM progression (adjusted HR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.01-1.81, p = 0.04). T2DM was not associated with LSM regression ( p = 0.71). Mean HbA1c was significantly associated with LSM progression ( p = 0.003) and regression ( p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Using serial VCTE data from a multicenter study of participants with biopsy-proven metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, we demonstrate that T2DM and HbA1c are associated with LSM progression.

Artificial intelligence scoring of liver biopsies in a phase II trial of semaglutide in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Artificial intelligence-powered digital pathology offers the potential to quantify histological findings in a reproducible way. This analysis compares the evaluation of histological features of NASH between pathologists and a machine-learning (ML) pathology model. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This post hoc analysis included data from a subset of patients (n=251) with biopsy-confirmed NASH and fibrosis stage F1-F3 from a 72-week randomized placebo-controlled trial of once-daily subcutaneous semaglutide 0.1, 0.2, or 0.4 mg (NCT02970942). Biopsies at baseline and week 72 were read by 2 pathologists. Digitized biopsy slides were evaluated by PathAI's NASH ML models to quantify changes in fibrosis, steatosis, inflammation, and hepatocyte ballooning using categorical assessments and continuous scores. Pathologist and ML-derived categorical assessments detected a significantly greater percentage of patients achieving the primary endpoint of NASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis with semaglutide 0.4 mg versus placebo (pathologist 58.5% vs. 22.0%, p < 0.0001; ML 36.9% vs. 11.9%; p =0.0015). Both methods detected a higher but nonsignificant percentage of patients on semaglutide 0.4 mg versus placebo achieving the secondary endpoint of liver fibrosis improvement without NASH worsening. ML continuous scores detected significant treatment-induced responses in histological features, including a quantitative reduction in fibrosis with semaglutide 0.4 mg versus placebo ( p =0.0099) that could not be detected using pathologist or ML categorical assessment. CONCLUSIONS: ML categorical assessments reproduced pathologists' results of histological improvement with semaglutide for steatosis and disease activity. ML-based continuous scores demonstrated an antifibrotic effect not measured by conventional histopathology.

MASH Resolution Index: development and validation of a non-invasive score to detect histological resolution of MASH.

BACKGROUND: Dynamic changes in non-invasive tests, such as changes in alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and MRI proton-density-fat-fraction (MRI-PDFF), may help to detect metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) resolution, but a combination of non-invasive tests may be more accurate than either alone. We developed a novel non-invasive score, the MASH Resolution Index, to detect the histological resolution of MASH. METHODS: This study included a derivation cohort of 95 well-characterised adult participants (67% female) with biopsy-confirmed MASH who underwent contemporaneous laboratory testing, MRI-PDFF and liver biopsy at two time points. The primary objective was to develop a non-invasive score to detect MASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis. The most predictive logistic regression model was selected based on the highest area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), and the lowest Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion. The model was then externally validated in a distinct cohort of 163 participants with MASH from a clinical trial. RESULTS: The median (IQR) age and body mass index were 55 (45-62) years and 32.0 (30-37) kg/m2, respectively, in the derivation cohort. The most accurate model (MASH Resolution Index) included MRI-PDFF, ALT and aspartate aminotransferase. The index had an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.93) for detecting MASH resolution in the derivation cohort. The score calibrated well and performed robustly in a distinct external validation cohort (AUC 0.83, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.91), and outperformed changes in ALT and MRI-PDFF. CONCLUSION: The MASH Resolution Index may be a useful score to non-invasively identify MASH resolution.

Artificial intelligence-assisted digital pathology for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: current status and future directions.

The worldwide prevalence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is increasing, causing a significant medical burden, but no approved therapeutics are currently available. NASH drug development requires histological analysis of liver biopsies by expert pathologists for trial enrolment and efficacy assessment, which can be hindered by multiple issues including sample heterogeneity, inter-reader and intra-reader variability, and ordinal scoring systems. Consequently, there is a high unmet need for accurate, reproducible, quantitative, and automated methods to assist pathologists with histological analysis to improve the precision around treatment and efficacy assessment. Digital pathology (DP) workflows in combination with artificial intelligence (AI) have been established in other areas of medicine and are being actively investigated in NASH to assist pathologists in the evaluation and scoring of NASH histology. DP/AI models can be used to automatically detect, localise, quantify, and score histological parameters and have the potential to reduce the impact of scoring variability in NASH clinical trials. This narrative review provides an overview of DP/AI tools in development for NASH, highlights key regulatory considerations, and discusses how these advances may impact the future of NASH clinical management and drug development. This should be a high priority in the NASH field, particularly to improve the development of safe and effective therapeutics.

Prospective Study of Outcomes in Adults with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND: The prognoses with respect to mortality and hepatic and nonhepatic outcomes across the histologic spectrum of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are not well defined. METHODS: We prospectively followed a multicenter patient population that included the full histologic spectrum of NAFLD. The incidences of death and other outcomes were compared across baseline histologic characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 1773 adults with NAFLD were followed for a median of 4 years. All-cause mortality increased with increasing fibrosis stages (0.32 deaths per 100 person-years for stage F0 to F2 [no, mild, or moderate fibrosis], 0.89 deaths per 100 persons-years for stage F3 [bridging fibrosis], and 1.76 deaths per 100 person-years for stage F4 [cirrhosis]). The incidence of liver-related complications per 100 person-years increased with fibrosis stage (F0 to F2 vs. F3 vs. F4) as follows: variceal hemorrhage (0.00 vs. 0.06 vs. 0.70), ascites (0.04 vs. 0.52 vs. 1.20), encephalopathy (0.02 vs. 0.75 vs. 2.39), and hepatocellular cancer (0.04 vs. 0.34 vs. 0.14). As compared with patients with stage F0 to F2 fibrosis, patients with stage F4 fibrosis also had a higher incidence of type 2 diabetes (7.53 vs. 4.45 events per 100 person-years) and a decrease of more than 40% in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (2.98 vs. 0.97 events per 100 person-years). The incidence of cardiac events and nonhepatic cancers were similar across fibrosis stages. After adjustment for age, sex, race, diabetes status, and baseline histologic severity, the incidence of any hepatic decompensation event (variceal hemorrhage, ascites, or encephalopathy) was associated with increased all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 6.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.2 to 21.3). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective study involving patients with NAFLD, fibrosis stages F3 and F4 were associated with increased risks of liver-related complications and death. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others; NAFLD DB2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01030484.).

Fibrosis Progression Rate in Biopsy-Proven Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Among People With Diabetes Versus People Without Diabetes: A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are limited data regarding fibrosis progression in biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) compared with people without T2DM. We assessed the time to fibrosis progression in people with T2DM compared with people without T2DM in a large, multicenter, study of people with NAFLD who had paired liver biopsies. METHODS: This study included 447 adult participants (64% were female) with NAFLD who had paired liver biopsies more than 1 year apart. Liver histology was systematically assessed by a central pathology committee blinded to clinical data. The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of a ≥1-stage increase in fibrosis in participants with T2DM compared with participants without T2DM. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age and body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) were 50.9 (11.5) years and 34.7 (6.3), respectively. The median time between biopsies was 3.3 years (interquartile range, 1.8-6.1 years). Participants with T2DM had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of fibrosis progression at 4 years (24% vs 20%), 8 years (60% vs 50%), and 12 years (93% vs 76%) (P = .005). Using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for multiple confounders, T2DM remained an independent predictor of fibrosis progression (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.17-2.43; P = .005). The cumulative incidence of fibrosis regression by ≥1 stage was similar in participants with T2DM compared with participants without T2DM (P = .24). CONCLUSIONS: In this large, multicenter cohort study of well-characterized participants with NAFLD and paired liver biopsies, we found that fibrosis progressed faster in participants with T2DM compared with participants without T2DM. These data have important implications for clinical practice and trial design.

Development of Fibro-PeN, a clinical prediction model for moderate-to-severe fibrosis in children with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Liver fibrosis is common in children with NAFLD and is an important determinant of outcomes. High-performing noninvasive models to assess fibrosis in children are needed. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the performance of existing pediatric and adult fibrosis prediction models and to develop a clinical prediction rule for identifying moderate-to-severe fibrosis in children with NAFLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We enrolled children with biopsy-proven NAFLD in the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network within 90 days of liver biopsy. We staged liver fibrosis in consensus using the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network scoring system. We evaluated existing pediatric and adult models for fibrosis and developed a new pediatric model using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator with linear and spline terms for discriminating moderate-to-severe fibrosis from none or mild fibrosis. The model was internally validated with 10-fold cross-validation. We evaluated 1055 children with NAFLD, of whom 26% had moderate-to-severe fibrosis. Existing models performed poorly in classifying fibrosis in children, with area under the receiver operator curves (AUC) ranging from 0.57 to 0.64. In contrast, our new model, fibrosis in pediatric NAFLD was derived from fourteen common clinical variables and had an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.77-0.81) with 72% sensitivity and 76% specificity for identifying moderate-to-severe fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Existing fibrosis prediction models have limited clinical utility in children with NAFLD. Fibrosis in pediatric NAFLD offers improved performance characteristics for risk stratification by identifying moderate-to-severe fibrosis in children with NAFLD.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease risk and histologic severity are associated with genetic polymorphisms in children.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: NAFLD is the most common chronic liver disease in children. Large pediatric studies identifying single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with risk and histologic severity of NAFLD are limited. Study aims included investigating SNPs associated with risk for NAFLD using family trios and association of candidate alleles with histologic severity. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Children with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD were enrolled from the NASH Clinical Research Network. The Expert Pathology Committee reviewed liver histology. Genotyping was conducted with allele-specific primers for 60 candidate SNPs. Parents were enrolled for trio analysis. To assess risk for NAFLD, the transmission disequilibrium test was conducted in trios. Among cases, regression analysis assessed associations with histologic severity. A total of 822 children with NAFLD had mean age 13.2 years (SD 2.7) and mean ALT 101 U/L (SD 90). PNPLA3 (rs738409) demonstrated the strongest risk ( p = 2.24 × 10 -14 ) for NAFLD. Among children with NAFLD, stratifying by PNPLA3 s738409 genotype, the variant genotype associated with steatosis ( p = 0.005), lobular ( p = 0.03) and portal inflammation ( p = 0.002). Steatosis grade associated with TM6SF2 ( p = 0.0009), GCKR ( p = 0.0032), PNPLA3 rs738409 ( p = 0.0053), and MTTP ( p = 0.0051). Fibrosis stage associated with PARVB rs6006473 ( p = 0.0001), NR1I2 ( p = 0.0021), ADIPOR2 ( p = 0.0038), and OXTR ( p = 0.0065). PNPLA3 rs738409 ( p = 0.0002) associated with borderline zone 1 NASH. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated disease-associated SNPs in children with NAFLD. In particular, rs6006473 was highly associated with severity of fibrosis. These hypothesis-generating results support future mechanistic studies of development of adverse outcomes such as fibrosis and generation of therapeutic targets for NAFLD in children.

A serum-induced gene signature in hepatocytes is associated with pediatric nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

OBJECTIVE: Pediatric nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a growing problem, but its underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. We used transcriptomic reporter cell assays to investigate differences in transcriptional signatures induced in hepatocyte reporter cells by the sera of children with and without NAFLD. METHODS: We studied serum samples from 45 children with NAFLD and 28 children without NAFLD. The sera were used to induce gene expression in cultured HepaRG cells and RNA-sequencing was used to determine gene expression. Computational techniques were used to compare gene expression patterns. RESULTS: Sera from children with NAFLD induced the expression of 195 genes that were significantly differentially expressed in hepatocytes compared to controls with obesity. NAFLD was associated with increased expression of genes promoting inflammation, collagen synthesis, and extracellular matrix remodeling. Additionally, there was lower expression of genes involved in endobiotic and xenobiotic metabolism, and downregulation of peroxisome function, oxidative phosphorylation, and xenobiotic, bile acid, and fatty acid metabolism. A 13-gene signature, including upregulation of TREM1 and MMP1 and downregulation of CYP2C9, was consistently associated with all diagnostic categories of pediatric NAFLD. CONCLUSION: The extracellular milieu of sera from children with NAFLD induced specific gene profiles distinguishable by a hepatocyte reporter system. Circulating factors may contribute to inflammation and extracellular matrix remodeling and impair xenobiotic and endobiotic metabolism in pediatric NAFLD.

Environmental toxicants modulate disease severity in pediatric metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis.

OBJECTIVES: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is common in children. We hypothesized environmental toxins could drive progression to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), and assayed serum toxins and metabolites in children with histologically characterized MASLD/MASH. METHODS: Environmental chemicals, common in household items, perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), brominated flame retardants (PBDEs), and metabolic profiles were assayed in children enrolled in the multicenter NASH Clinical Research Network Pediatric Database 2. Mixture models, using repeated holdout weighted quantile sum regression (WQSrh) were run in addition to single chemical/metabolite logistic regression. For metabolomic analyses, random subset version of WQSrh was used for the large number of predictors versus participants. Nominal and false discovery rate (FDR) p-values (two-sided) were computed. RESULTS: Four hundred and thirty-five children distributed across MASH (n = 293) and MASLD (n = 142), with 304 (69.9%) males. Mean (standard deviation) for Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Score (NAS) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) for MASLD were 3.1 (1.0), 67.9 (43.4), and for MASH 4.2 (1.4), 144 (121). There was an inverse association between PFAS/PBDE mixture and MASH versus MASLD, lobular inflammation (p = 0.026), NAS (p = 0.009, FDR p = 0.04), and log-transformed ALT (p = 0.005, FDR p = 0.025) driven by perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS). Metabolites from positive hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography mode, biliverdin (p = 0.002) and 1-methylhistidine (associated with meat ingestion, p = 0.02) and reverse phase negative mode, hippuric acid (solvent exposure, p = 0.022) significantly associated with MASH. CONCLUSIONS: Significant negative PFAS/PBDE mixture effect and odds of MASH were dominated by PHFXS. Several metabolites are significantly associated with MASH which inform mechanistic pathways and could drive key therapeutic and diagnostic strategies in children.

A prospective study on the prevalence of NAFLD, advanced fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in people with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are limited prospective data on patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) specifically enrolled and systematically assessed for advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis due to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the prevalence of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in a prospectively recruited cohort of adults with T2DM. METHODS: This prospective study enrolled adults aged ≥50 years with T2DM, recruited from primary care or endocrinology clinics. Participants underwent a standardized clinical research visit with MRI-proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF), magnetic resonance elastography (MRE), vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and controlled-attenuation parameter. NAFLD was defined as MRI-PDFF ≥5% after exclusion of other liver diseases. Advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis were defined by established liver stiffness cut-off points on MRE or VCTE if MRE was not available. RESULTS: Of 524 patients screened, 501 adults (63% female) with T2DM met eligibility. The mean age and BMI were 64.6 (±8.1) years and 31.4 (±5.9) kg/m2, respectively. The prevalence of NAFLD, advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis was 65%, 14% and 6%, respectively. In multivariable adjusted models, adjusted for age and sex, obesity and insulin use were associated with increased odds of advanced fibrosis (odds ratio 2.50; 95% CI 1.38-4.54; p = 0.003 and odds ratio 2.71; 95% CI 1.33-5.50; p = 0.006, respectively). Among 29 patients with cirrhosis, two were found to have hepatocellular carcinoma and one patient had gallbladder adenocarcinoma. CONCLUSION: Utilizing a uniquely well-phenotyped prospective cohort of patients aged ≥50 years with T2DM, we found that the prevalence of advanced fibrosis was 14% and that of cirrhosis was 6%. These data underscore the high risk of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in adults aged ≥50 years with T2DM. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is common in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM), however, there are limited prospective data characterizing the prevalence of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis using the most accurate non-invasive biomarkers of liver fat and fibrosis. We show that 14% of older adults with T2DM have advanced fibrosis and 6% have cirrhosis, which places them at risk for liver failure and liver cancer. Accurate prevalence rates and comparative analysis regarding the diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive tests in this population will guide the optimal screening strategy and future cost-effectiveness analyses. These results will inform future Hepatology and Endocrinology practice guidelines regarding NAFLD screening programs in older adults with T2DM.

Defining the serum proteomic signature of hepatic steatosis, inflammation, ballooning and fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Despite recent progress, non-invasive tests for the diagnostic assessment and monitoring of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remain an unmet need. Herein, we aimed to identify diagnostic signatures of the key histological features of NAFLD. METHODS: Using modified-aptamer proteomics, we assayed 5,220 proteins in each of 2,852 single serum samples from 636 individuals with histologically confirmed NAFLD. We developed and validated dichotomized protein-phenotype models to identify clinically relevant severities of steatosis (grade 0 vs. 1-3), hepatocellular ballooning (0 vs. 1 or 2), lobular inflammation (0-1 vs. 2-3) and fibrosis (stages 0-1 vs. 2-4). RESULTS: The AUCs of the four protein models, based on 37 analytes (18 not previously linked to NAFLD), for the diagnosis of their respective components (at a clinically relevant severity) in training/paired validation sets were: fibrosis (AUC 0.92/0.85); steatosis (AUC 0.95/0.79), inflammation (AUC 0.83/0.72), and ballooning (AUC 0.87/0.83). An additional outcome, at-risk NASH, defined as steatohepatitis with NAFLD activity score ≥4 (with a score of at least 1 for each of its components) and fibrosis stage ≥2, was predicted by multiplying the outputs of each individual component model (AUC 0.93/0.85). We further evaluated their ability to detect change in histology following treatment with placebo, pioglitazone, vitamin E or obeticholic acid. Component model scores significantly improved in the active therapies vs. placebo, and differential effects of vitamin E, pioglitazone, and obeticholic acid were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Serum protein scanning identified signatures corresponding to the key components of liver biopsy in NAFLD. The models developed were sufficiently sensitive to characterize the longitudinal change for three different drug interventions. These data support continued validation of these proteomic models to enable a "liquid biopsy"-based assessment of NAFLD. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: An aptamer-based protein scan of serum proteins was performed to identify diagnostic signatures of the key histological features of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), for which no approved non-invasive diagnostic tools are currently available. We also identified specific protein signatures related to the presence and severity of NAFLD and its histological components that were also sensitive to change over time. These are fundamental initial steps in establishing a serum proteome-based diagnostic signature of NASH and provide the rationale for using these signatures to test treatment response and to identify several novel targets for evaluation in the pathogenesis of NAFLD.

Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Children With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a growing problem in children. Children with NAFLD are at potentially high risk for developing T2D; however, the incidence of T2D in this population is unknown. This study aimed to determine the incidence of T2D in children with NAFLD and identify associated risk factors. METHODS: Children with NAFLD enrolled in the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network were followed longitudinally. Incidence of T2D was determined by using clinical history and fasting laboratory values. Cumulative incidence curves were developed for time to T2D. A Cox regression multivariable model was constructed using best subsets Akaike's Information Criteria selection. RESULTS: This study included 892 children with NAFLD and with a mean age of 12.8 years (2.7) followed for 3.8 years (2.3) with a total 3234 person-years at risk. The incidence rate of T2D was 3000 new cases per 100,000 person-years at risk. At baseline, 63 children had T2D, and during follow-up, an additional 97 children developed incident T2D, resulting in a period prevalence of 16.8%. Incident T2D was significantly higher in females versus males (hazard ratio [HR], 1.8 [1.0-2.8]), associated with BMI z-score (HR, 1.8 [1.0-3.0]), and more severe liver histology including steatosis grade (HR, 1.3 [1.0-1.7]), and fibrosis stage (HR, 1.3 [1.0-1.5]). CONCLUSIONS: Children with NAFLD are at high risk for existing and incident T2D. In addition to known risk factors for T2D (female and BMI z-score), severity of liver histology at the time of NAFLD diagnosis was independently associated with T2D development. Targeted strategies to prevent T2D in children with NAFLD are needed.

Two-Step Strategy, FIB-4 Followed by Magnetic Resonance Elastography, for Detecting Advanced Fibrosis in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A two-step strategy combining a serum marker and magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) for detecting advanced fibrosis (stage 3-4) among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been proposed, but its diagnostic accuracy has not been evaluated. In this multicenter study, we aimed to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of a two-step strategy including Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) followed by MRE. METHODS: In this multicenter study, 806 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD who underwent contemporaneous MRE were enrolled and randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts. As a first step, patients with FIB-4 <1.3 were defined as test negative regardless of MRE. As a second step, among patients with FIB-4 ≥1.3, MRE <3.6 and ≥3.6 kPa were defined as test negative and positive. The primary outcome was the diagnostic accuracy for advanced fibrosis comparing MRE alone versus the two-step strategy. RESULTS: Area under the receiver characteristic curves of MRE alone and the two-step strategy were 0.840 and 0.853 in the training cohort (P = .4) and 0.867 and 0.834 in the validation cohort (P = .2), respectively, and the diagnostic accuracy was comparable between the 2 methods. In the entire cohort, negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) of MRE for advanced fibrosis were 92.2% and 73.7%, respectively, whereas NPV at the first and second step and PPV at the second step were 90.9%, 84.4%, and 77.0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic accuracy of the two-step strategy was comparable to MRE and could reduce cost by reducing excessive MRE. Therefore, the two-step strategy could be used as a screening method in a large population.

Magnetic resonance elastography plus Fibrosis-4 versus FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase in detection of candidates for pharmacological treatment of NASH-related fibrosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with NAFLD with significant hepatic fibrosis (Stage ≥ 2) are at increased risk of liver-related morbidity and are candidates for pharmacologic therapies. In this study, we compared the diagnostic accuracy of MEFIB (the combination of magnetic resonance elastography [MRE] and Fibrosis-4 [FIB-4]) and FAST (FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase; combined liver stiffness measurement by vibration-controlled transient elastography, controlled attenuation parameter, and aspartate aminotransferase) for detecting significant fibrosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This prospective cohort study included 234 consecutive patients with NAFLD who underwent liver biopsy, MRE, and FibroScan at the University of California San Diego (UCSD cohort) and an independent cohort (N = 314) from Yokohama City University, Japan. The primary outcome was diagnostic accuracy for significant fibrosis (Stage ≥ 2). The proportions of significant fibrosis in the UCSD and Yokohama cohorts were 29.5% and 66.2%, respectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) of MEFIB (0.860 [0.81-0.91]) was significantly higher than that of FAST (0.757 [0.69-0.82]) in the UCSD cohort (p = 0.005), with consistent results in the Yokohama cohort (AUROC, 0.899 [MEFIB] versus 0.724 [FAST]; p < 0.001). When used as the rule-in criteria (MEFIB, MRE ≥ 3.3 kPa and FIB-4 ≥ 1.6; FAST ≥ 0.67), the positive predictive value for significant fibrosis was 91.2%-96.0% for MEFIB and 74.2%-89.2% for FAST. When used as the rule-out criteria (MEFIB, MRE < 3.3 kPa and FIB-4 < 1.6; FAST ≤ 0.35), the negative predictive value for significant fibrosis was 85.6%-92.8% for MEFIB and 57.8%-88.3% for FAST. CONCLUSIONS: MEFIB has higher diagnostic accuracy than FAST for significant fibrosis in NAFLD, and our results support the utility of a two-step strategy for detecting significant fibrosis in NAFLD.

Reliability of histologic assessment for NAFLD and development of an expanded NAFLD activity score.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The NASH Clinical Research Network histologic scoring system, the gold-standard NASH histology assessment for clinical trials, has demonstrated intrarater and interrater variability. An expert panel in a previous systematic Research and Development/University of California Los Angeles (RAND/UCLA) study determined that existing histologic scoring systems do not fully capture NASH disease activity and fibrosis, and standardized definitions of histologic features are needed. We evaluated the reliability of existing and alternate histologic measures and their correlations with a disease activity visual analog scale to propose optimal components for an expanded NAFLD activity score (NAS). APPROACH AND RESULTS: Four liver pathologists who were involved in the prior RAND/UCLA study underwent standardized training and multiple discussions with the goal of improving agreement. They were blinded to clinical information and scored histologic measures twice, ≥2 weeks apart, for 40 liver biopsies representing the full spectrum of NAFLD. Index intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) estimates demonstrated intrarater (0.80-0.85) and interrater (0.60-0.72) reliability. Hepatocyte ballooning items had similar interrater ICCs (0.68-0.79), including those extending scores from 0-2 to 0-4. Steatosis measures (interrater ICCs, 0.72-0.80) correlated poorly with disease activity. Correlations with disease activity were largest for hepatocyte ballooning and Mallory-Denk bodies (MDBs), with both used to develop the expanded NAS (intrarater ICC, 0.90; interrater ICC, 0.80). Fibrosis measures had ICCs of 0.70-0.87. CONCLUSIONS: After extensive preparation among a group of experienced pathologists, we demonstrated improved reliability of multiple existing histologic NAFLD indices and fibrosis staging systems. Hepatocyte ballooning and MDBs most strongly correlated with disease activity and were used for the expanded NAS. Further validation including evaluation of responsiveness is required.

Clinical utility of 30% relative decline in MRI-PDFF in predicting fibrosis regression in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

OBJECTIVE: Emerging data suggest that a 30% relative decline in liver fat, as assessed by MRI-proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF), may be associated with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Activity Score improvement, but the association between decline in MRI-PDFF and fibrosis regression is not known. Therefore, we aimed to examine the association between ≥30% relative decline in MRI-PDFF and fibrosis regression in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). DESIGN: This prospective study included 100 well-characterised patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD with paired contemporaneous MRI-PDFF assessment at two time points. MRI-PDFF response was defined as ≥30% relative decline in MRI-PDFF. The primary outcome was ≥1 stage histological fibrosis regression. RESULTS: The median (IQR) age was 54 (43-62) years and body mass index was 31.9 (29-36) kg/m2. In multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analysis (adjusted for age, gender, diabetes status, race/ethnicity, interval between biopsies, gamma-glutamyl transferase, liver stiffness by magnetic resonance elastography and change in platelet counts), MRI-PDFF response was an independent predictor of fibrosis regression with an adjusted OR of 6.46 (95% CI 1.1 to 37.0, p=0.04). The proportion of patients with MRI-PDFF response with fibrosis regression, no change in fibrosis and fibrosis progression was 40.0%, 24.6% and 13.0%, respectively, and the proportion of patients with MRI-PDFF response increased with fibrosis regression (p=0.03). CONCLUSION: ≥30% reduction in MRI-PDFF in early phase trials can provide a useful estimate of odds of ≥1 stage improvement in fibrosis. These data may be helpful in sample size estimation in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis trials.

Head-to-head comparison between MEFIB, MAST, and FAST for detecting stage 2 fibrosis or higher among patients with NAFLD.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and significant fibrosis (fibrosis stage ≥2) are candidates for pharmacological trials. The aim of this study was to perform a head-to-head comparison of the diagnostic test characteristics of three non-invasive stiffness-based models including MEFIB (magnetic resonance elastography [MRE] plus FIB-4), MAST (magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]-aspartate aminotransferase [AST]), and FAST (FibroScan-AST) for detecting significant fibrosis. METHODS: This prospective study included 563 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD undergoing contemporaneous MRE, MRI proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) and FibroScan from two prospective cohorts derived from Southern California and Japan. Diagnostic performances of models were evaluated by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: The mean age of the cohort was 56.5 years (51% were women). Significant fibrosis was observed in 51.2%. To detect significant fibrosis, MEFIB outperformed both MAST and FAST (both p <0.001); AUCs for MEFIB, MAST, and FAST were 0.901 (95% CI 0.875-0.928), 0.770 (95% CI 0.730-0.810), and 0.725 (95% CI 0.683-0.767), respectively. Using rule-in criteria, the positive predictive value of MEFIB (95.3%) was significantly higher than that of FAST (83.5%, p = 0.001) and numerically but not statistically greater than that of MAST (90.0%, p = 0.056). Notably, MEFIB's rule-in criteria covered more of the study population than MAST (34.1% vs. 26.6%; p = 0.006). Using rule-out criteria, the negative predictive value of MEFIB (90.1%) was significantly higher than that of either MAST (69.6%) or FAST (71.8%) (both p <0.001). Furthermore, to diagnose "at risk" non-alcoholic steatohepatitis defined as NAFLD activity score ≥4 and fibrosis stage ≥2, MEFIB outperformed both MAST and FAST (both p <0.05); AUCs for MEFIB, MAST, and FAST were 0.768 (95% CI 0.728-0.808), 0.719 (95% CI 0.671-0.766), and 0.687 (95% CI 0.640-0.733), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: MEFIB was better than MAST and FAST for detection of significant fibrosis as well as "at risk" NASH. All three models provide utility for the risk stratification of NAFLD. LAY SUMMARY: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects over 25% of the general population worldwide and is one of the main causes of chronic liver disease. Because so many individuals have NAFLD, it is not practical to perform liver biopsies to identify those with more severe disease who may require pharmacological interventions. Therefore, accurate non-invasive tests are crucial. Herein, we compared three such tests and found that a test called MEFIB was the best at detecting patients who might require treatment.