Predicting trends in HIV-1 sexual transmission in sub-Saharan Africa through the Drug Resource Enhancement Against AIDS and Malnutrition model: antiretrovirals for 5 reduction of population infectivity, incidence and prevalence at the district level.

BACKGROUND: The use of antiretrovirals to reduce the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection has been evaluated in mathematical models as potential strategies for curtailing the epidemic. Cohort data from the Drug Resource Enhancement Against AIDS and Malnutrition (DREAM) Program was used to generate a realistic model for the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Two combined stochastic models were developed: patient and epidemic models. Models were combined using virus load as a parameter of infectivity. DREAM data that assessed patient care in Mozambique and Malawi were used to generate measures of infectivity, survival, and adherence. The Markov chain prediction model was used for the analysis of disease progression in treated and untreated patients. A partnership model was used to assess the probability that an infected individual would transmit HIV. RESULTS: Data from 26565 patients followed up from January 2002 through July 2009 were analyzed with the model; 63% of patients were female, the median age was 35 years, and the median observation time was 25 months. In the model, a 5-fold reduction in infectivity (from 1.6% to 0.3%) occurred within 3 years when triple ART was used. The annual incidence of HIV infection declined from 7% to 2% in 2 years, and the prevalence was halved, from 12% to 6%, in 11 years. Mortality in HIV-infected individuals declined by 50% in 5 years. A cost analysis demonstrated economic efficiency after 4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our model, based on patient data, supports the hypothesis that treatment of all infected individuals translates into a drastic reduction in incident HIV infections. A targeted implementation strategy with massive population coverage is feasible in sub-Saharan Africa.

A global approach to the management of EMR (electronic medical records) of patients with HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa: the experience of DREAM software.

BACKGROUND: The DREAM Project operates within the framework of the national health systems of several sub-Saharan African countries and aims to introduce the essential components of an integrated strategy for the prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS. The project is intended to serve as a model for a wide-ranging scale-up in the response to the epidemic. This paper aims to show DREAM's challenges and the solutions adopted. One of the solutions is the efficient management of the clinical data regarding the treatment of the patients and epidemiological analyses. METHODS: Specific software for the management of the patients' EMR has been created within the DREAM programme in order to deal with the challenges deriving from the context in which DREAM operates. Setting up a computer infrastructure in health centres, providing a power supply, as well as managing the data and the project resources efficiently and reliably, are some of the questions that have been analysed in this study. RESULTS: Over the years this software has proved that it is able to respond to the need for efficient management of the clinical data and organization of the health centres. Today it is used in 10 countries in sub-Saharan Africa by thousands of professionals and by now it has reached its fourth version. The medical files of over 73,000 assisted patients are managed by this software and the data collected with it have become essential for the epidemiological research that is carried out to improve the effectiveness of the therapy. CONCLUSION: Sub-Saharan Africa is the region hardest hit by HIV and AIDS in the world. However, the resources and responses adopted so far, to confront the epidemic, have at times been rather minimalist. The DREAM project has faced the battle against the epidemic by equipping itself with qualitative standards comparable to Western ones. The experience of DREAM has revealed that it is indeed possible to guarantee levels of excellence in developing countries, also in the sphere of ICT (Information and Communication Technology), thus making the intervention even more effective and contributing to bridging the digital divide.