RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Vascular cognitive impairment due to cerebral small vessel disease is associated with cerebral pulsatility, white matter hypoperfusion, and reduced cerebrovascular reactivity (CVR), and is potentially improved by endothelium-targeted drugs such as cilostazol. Whether sildenafil, a phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitor, improves cerebrovascular dysfunction is unknown. METHODS: OxHARP trial (Oxford Haemodynamic Adaptation to Reduce Pulsatility) was a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, 3-way crossover trial after nonembolic cerebrovascular events with mild-moderate white matter hyperintensities (WMH), the most prevalent manifestation of cerebral small vessel disease. The primary outcome assessed the superiority of 3 weeks of sildenafil 50 mg thrice daily versus placebo (mixed-effect linear models) on middle cerebral artery pulsatility, derived from peak systolic and end-diastolic velocities (transcranial ultrasound), with noninferiority to cilostazol 100 mg twice daily. Secondary end points included the following: cerebrovascular reactivity during inhalation of air, 4% and 6% CO2 on transcranial ultrasound (transcranial ultrasound-CVR); blood oxygen-level dependent-magnetic resonance imaging within WMH (CVR-WMH) and normal-appearing white matter (CVR-normal-appearing white matter); cerebral perfusion by arterial spin labeling (magnetic resonance imaging pseudocontinuous arterial spin labeling); and resistance by cerebrovascular conductance. Adverse effects were compared by Cochran Q. RESULTS: In 65/75 (87%) patients (median, 70 years;79% male) with valid primary outcome data, cerebral pulsatility was unchanged on sildenafil versus placebo (0.02, -0.01 to 0.05; P=0.18), or versus cilostazol (-0.01, -0.04 to 0.02; P=0.36), despite increased blood flow (∆ peak systolic velocity, 6.3 cm/s, 3.5-9.07; P<0.001; ∆ end-diastolic velocity, 1.98, 0.66-3.29; P=0.004). Secondary outcomes improved on sildenafil versus placebo for CVR-transcranial ultrasound (0.83 cm/s per mmâ Hg, 0.23-1.42; P=0.007), CVR-WMH (0.07, 0-0.14; P=0.043), CVR-normal-appearing white matter (0.06, 0.00-0.12; P=0.048), perfusion (WMH: 1.82 mL/100 g per minute, 0.5-3.15; P=0.008; and normal-appearing white matter, 2.12, 0.66-3.6; P=0.006) and cerebrovascular resistance (sildenafil-placebo: 0.08, 0.05-0.10; P=4.9×10-8; cilostazol-placebo, 0.06, 0.03-0.09; P=5.1×10-5). Both drugs increased headaches (P=1.1×10-4), while cilostazol increased moderate-severe diarrhea (P=0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Sildenafil did not reduce pulsatility but increased cerebrovascular reactivity and perfusion. Sildenafil merits further study to determine whether it prevents the clinical sequelae of small vessel disease. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03855332; Unique identifier: NCT03855332.
Assuntos
Doenças de Pequenos Vasos Cerebrais , Circulação Cerebrovascular , Estudos Cross-Over , Citrato de Sildenafila , Humanos , Citrato de Sildenafila/uso terapêutico , Citrato de Sildenafila/farmacologia , Citrato de Sildenafila/efeitos adversos , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Método Duplo-Cego , Doenças de Pequenos Vasos Cerebrais/tratamento farmacológico , Doenças de Pequenos Vasos Cerebrais/fisiopatologia , Doenças de Pequenos Vasos Cerebrais/diagnóstico por imagem , Circulação Cerebrovascular/efeitos dos fármacos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Cilostazol/uso terapêutico , Cilostazol/farmacologia , Cilostazol/efeitos adversos , Inibidores da Fosfodiesterase 5/uso terapêutico , Inibidores da Fosfodiesterase 5/efeitos adversos , Inibidores da Fosfodiesterase 5/farmacologia , Resultado do Tratamento , Fluxo Pulsátil/efeitos dos fármacos , Imageamento por Ressonância Magnética , Artéria Cerebral Média/efeitos dos fármacos , Artéria Cerebral Média/diagnóstico por imagem , Artéria Cerebral Média/fisiopatologiaRESUMO
Extraprostatic extension (EPE) of prostate cancer is usually reported as either focal (F-EPE) or established (E-EPE), but data on the implication for outcomes of this subdivision are conflicting and no systematic review (SR) evaluating this exists. This SR aims to address this gap in the literature, focusing on the impact of F-EPE and E-EPE on outcome in radical prostatectomy (RP) patients. Searches on Embase, Medline(R), and Pubmed databases were conducted. Studies were included if they investigated the extent of EPE in RP patients and correlated this with defined outcomes (biochemical recurrence [BCR], death, metastasis). Quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. A random effects model was used for studies reporting hazard ratios (EPE extent and biochemical recurrence). 24 studies, including 49,187 men, were included. Six studies were of high quality. 20 studies reported how they measured EPE. 13 studies reported that the extent of EPE was associated significantly with BCR. Meta-analysis showed there was a significant correlation between BCR and both F-EPE and E-EPE when compared to organ-confined disease; no significant difference was found between F-EPE and E-EPE. This is the only SR to investigate the extent of EPE on outcomes after RP. EPE alone predicts outcome, but the value of subdivision by extent could not be demonstrated. Comparisons are limited due to variability in EPE assessment and in the methods used to report outcomes in the literature. Further work to standardize EPE reporting methods, in larger cohorts, may be helpful to resolve remaining questions.
Assuntos
Prostatectomia , Neoplasias da Próstata , Humanos , Masculino , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/epidemiologia , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/patologia , Prognóstico , Próstata/patologia , Próstata/cirurgia , Prostatectomia/métodos , Neoplasias da Próstata/epidemiologia , Neoplasias da Próstata/patologia , Neoplasias da Próstata/cirurgiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Physical activity (PA) interventions have an encouraging role in gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) management. Digital technologies can potentially be used at scale to support PA. The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility and acceptability of + Stay-Active: a complex intervention which combines motivational interviewing with a smartphone application to promote PA levels in women with GDM. METHODS: This non-randomised feasibility study used a mixed methods approach. Participants were recruited from the GDM antenatal clinic at Oxford University Hospitals. Following baseline assessments (visit 1) including self-reported and device determined PA measurements (wrist worn accelerometer), women participated in an online motivational interview, and then downloaded (visit 2) and used the Stay-Active app (Android or iOS). Women had access to Stay-Active until 36 weeks' gestation, when acceptability and PA levels were reassessed (visit 3). The primary outcome measures were recruitment and retention rates, participant engagement, and acceptability and fidelity of the intervention. Secondary outcome measures included PA levels, app usage, blood glucose and perinatal outcomes. Descriptive statistics were performed for assessments at study visits. Statistics software package Stata 14 and R were used. RESULTS: Over the recruitment period (46 weeks), 114 of 285 women met inclusion criteria and 67 (58%) enrolled in the study. Mean recruitment rate of 1.5 participants/clinic with 2.5 women/clinic meeting inclusion criteria. Fifty-six (83%) received the intervention at visit 2 and 53 (79%) completed the study. Compliance to accelerometer measurement protocols were sufficient in 78% of participants (52/67); wearing the device for more than 10 h on 5 or more days at baseline and 61% (41/67) at 36 weeks. There was high engagement with Stay-Active; 82% (55/67) of participants set goals on Stay-Active. Sustained engagement was evident, participants regularly accessed and logged multiples activities on Stay-Active. The intervention was deemed acceptable; 85% of women rated their care was satisfactory or above, supported by written feedback. CONCLUSIONS: This combined intervention was feasible and accepted. Recruitment rates were lower than expected. However, retention rates remained satisfactory and participant compliance with PA measurements and engagement was a high. Future work will explore the intervention's efficacy to increase PA and impact on clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study has received a favourable opinion from South Central-Hampshire B Research Ethics Committee; REC reference: 20/SC/0342. ISRCTN11366562.
Assuntos
Diabetes Gestacional , Exercício Físico , Estudos de Viabilidade , Aplicativos Móveis , Entrevista Motivacional , Smartphone , Humanos , Feminino , Gravidez , Diabetes Gestacional/terapia , Diabetes Gestacional/psicologia , Entrevista Motivacional/métodos , Exercício Físico/psicologia , Adulto , Promoção da Saúde/métodos , Cuidado Pré-Natal/métodosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Early warning scores (EWS) are routinely used in hospitals to assess a patient's risk of deterioration. EWS are traditionally recorded on paper observation charts but are increasingly recorded digitally. In either case, evidence for the clinical effectiveness of such scores is mixed, and previous studies have not considered whether EWS leads to changes in how deteriorating patients are managed. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to examine whether the introduction of a digital EWS system was associated with more frequent observation of patients with abnormal vital signs, a precursor to earlier clinical intervention. METHODS: We conducted a 2-armed stepped-wedge study from February 2015 to December 2016, over 4 hospitals in 1 UK hospital trust. In the control arm, vital signs were recorded using paper observation charts. In the intervention arm, a digital EWS system was used. The primary outcome measure was time to next observation (TTNO), defined as the time between a patient's first elevated EWS (EWS ≥3) and subsequent observations set. Secondary outcomes were time to death in the hospital, length of stay, and time to unplanned intensive care unit admission. Differences between the 2 arms were analyzed using a mixed-effects Cox model. The usability of the system was assessed using the system usability score survey. RESULTS: We included 12,802 admissions, 1084 in the paper (control) arm and 11,718 in the digital EWS (intervention) arm. The system usability score was 77.6, indicating good usability. The median TTNO in the control and intervention arms were 128 (IQR 73-218) minutes and 131 (IQR 73-223) minutes, respectively. The corresponding hazard ratio for TTNO was 0.99 (95% CI 0.91-1.07; P=.73). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated strong clinical engagement with the system. We found no difference in any of the predefined patient outcomes, suggesting that the introduction of a highly usable electronic system can be achieved without impacting clinical care. Our findings contrast with previous claims that digital EWS systems are associated with improvement in clinical outcomes. Future research should investigate how digital EWS systems can be integrated with new clinical pathways adjusting staff behaviors to improve patient outcomes.
Assuntos
Escore de Alerta Precoce , Sinais Vitais , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Reino Unido , Hospitais , Unidades de Terapia IntensivaRESUMO
Background and Purpose- ISAT (International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial) demonstrated that 1 year after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, coiling resulted in a significantly better clinical outcome than clipping. After 5 years, this difference did not reach statistical significance, but mortality was still higher in the clipping group. Here, we present additional analyses, reporting outcome after excluding pretreatment deaths. Methods- Outcome measures were death with or without dependency at 1 and 5 years after treatment, after exclusion of all pretreatment deaths. Treatment differences were assessed using relative risks (RRs). With sensitivity and exploratory analyses, the relation between treatment delay and outcome was analyzed. Results- After exclusion of pretreatment deaths, at 1-year follow-up coiling was favorable over clipping for death or dependency (RR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.67-0.89]) but not for death alone (RR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.66-1.19]). After 5 years, no significant differences were observed, neither for death or dependency (RR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.77-1.02]) nor for death alone (RR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.64-1.05]). Sensitivity analyses showed a similar picture. In good-grade patients, coiling remained favorable over clipping in the long-term. Time between randomization and treatment was significantly longer in the clipping arm (mean 1.7 versus 1.1 days; P<0.0001), during which 17 patients died because of rebleeding versus 6 pretreatment deaths in the endovascular arm (RR, 2.81 [95% CI, 1.11-7.11]). Conclusions- These additional analyses support the conclusion of ISAT that at 1-year follow-up after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage coiling has a better outcome than clipping. After 5 years, with pretreatment mortality excluded, the difference between coiling and clipping is not significant. The high number of pretreatment deaths in the clipping group highlights the importance of urgent aneurysm treatment to prevent early rebleeding.
Assuntos
Aneurisma Roto/cirurgia , Procedimentos Endovasculares/métodos , Aneurisma Intracraniano/cirurgia , Procedimentos Neurocirúrgicos/métodos , Hemorragia Subaracnóidea/cirurgia , Tempo para o Tratamento/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Instrumentos Cirúrgicos , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Current reference ranges for blood pressure and heart rate throughout pregnancy have a poor evidence base. METHODS: This is a systematic review and meta-analysis. We included studies measuring blood pressure or heart rate from healthy pregnant women within defined gestational periods of 16 weeks or less. We analysed systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure and heart rate by gestational age. We assessed effects of measurement year and method. RESULTS: We included 39 studies undertaken in 1967-2017, containing 124,349 systolic measurements from 36,239 women, 124,291 diastolic measurements from 36,181 women and 10,948 heart rate measurements from 8317 women. Mean (95% CI) systolic blood pressure was lowest at 10 weeks gestation, 110.4 (108.5, 112.3) mmHg, rising to 116.0 (113.6, 118.4) mmHg at 40 weeks, mean (95% CI) change 5.6 (4.0, 7.2) mmHg. Mean (95% CI) diastolic blood pressure was lowest at 21 weeks gestation, 65.9 (64.2, 67.7) mmHg; rising to 72.8 (71.0, 74.6) mmHg at 40 weeks, mean (95% CI) change 6.9 (6.2, 7.5) mmHg. Mean (95% CI) heart rate rose from 79.3 (75.5, 83.1) beats/min at 10 weeks to 86.9 (82.2, 91.6) beats/min at 40 weeks gestation, mean (95% CI) change 7.6 (1.8, 13.4) beats/min. Studies using manual measurement reported higher diastolic blood pressures than studies using automated measurement, mean (95 CI) difference 4.9 (0.8, 8.9) mmHg. Diastolic blood pressure increased by 0.26 (95% CI 0.10-0.43) mmHg/year. Including only higher-quality studies had little effect on findings, with heterogeneity remaining high (I2 statistic > 50%). CONCLUSIONS: Significant gestational blood pressure and heart rate changes occur that should be taken into account when assessing pregnant women. Commonly taught substantial decreases in blood pressure mid-pregnancy were not seen and heart rate increases were lower than previously thought. Manual and automated blood pressure measurement cannot be used interchangeably. Increases in diastolic blood pressure over the last half-century and differences between published studies show contemporary data are required to define current normal ranges. STUDY REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42014009673.
Assuntos
Pressão Sanguínea/fisiologia , Frequência Cardíaca/fisiologia , Gravidez/fisiologia , Adulto , Feminino , Idade Gestacional , Humanos , Valores de ReferênciaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Iatrogenic ureteric injury is a serious complication of colorectal surgery. Incidence is estimated to be between 0.3 and 1.5%. Of all ureteric injuries, 9% occur during colorectal procedures. Ureteric stents are utilised as a method to reduce the risk of injury; however, these are not without risk and do not guarantee prevention of injury. Fluorescence is a safe and effective alternative for intraoperative ureteric localisation. This proof of principle study aims to assess the use of methylene blue to fluoresce the ureter during colorectal surgery. METHOD: Patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery were included in this open label, non-randomised study. Methylene blue was administered intravenously at varying doses (0.25-1 mg/kg) over 5 min, 10-15 min prior to entering 'ureteric territory.' Fluorescence was assessed using the PINPOINT Deep Red laparoscopic system at fixed time points by the surgeon and an independent observer. RESULTS: 42 patients received methylene blue; 2 patients were excluded from analysis. Of the 69 ureters assessed, 64 were seen under fluorescence. Of these, 14 were not visible under white light. 50 ureters were observed with both fluorescence and white light with 14 of these being seen earlier with fluorescence. In ten cases, fluorescence revealed the ureter to be in a different location than suspected. CONCLUSION: Fluorescence is a promising method to allow visualisation of the ureter, where it is not identified easily under standard operative conditions, thereby improving safety and reducing operative time and difficulty.
Assuntos
Fluorescência , Doença Iatrogênica/prevenção & controle , Complicações Intraoperatórias/prevenção & controle , Azul de Metileno , Ureter/diagnóstico por imagem , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Colo/cirurgia , Feminino , Humanos , Laparoscopia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Reto/cirurgiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease is the most common cause of dementia in older people. One approach to symptomatic treatment of Alzheimer's disease is to enhance cholinergic neurotransmission in the brain by blocking the action of the enzyme responsible for the breakdown of the neurotransmitter acetylcholine. This can be done by a group of drugs known as cholinesterase inhibitors. Donepezil is a cholinesterase inhibitor.This review is an updated version of a review first published in 1998. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical efficacy and safety of donepezil in people with mild, moderate or severe dementia due to Alzheimer's disease; to compare the efficacy and safety of different doses of donepezil; and to assess the effect of donepezil on healthcare resource use and costs. SEARCH METHODS: We searched Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement's Specialized Register, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO and a number of other sources on 20 May 2017 to ensure that the search was as comprehensive and up-to-date as possible. In addition, we contacted members of the Donepezil Study Group and Eisai Inc. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all double-blind, randomised controlled trials in which treatment with donepezil was administered to people with mild, moderate or severe dementia due to Alzheimer's disease for 12 weeks or more and its effects compared with those of placebo in a parallel group of patients, or where two different doses of donepezil were compared. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: One reviewer (JSB) extracted data on cognitive function, activities of daily living, behavioural symptoms, global clinical state, quality of life, adverse events, deaths and healthcare resource costs. Where appropriate and possible, we estimated pooled treatment effects. We used GRADE methods to assess the quality of the evidence for each outcome. MAIN RESULTS: Thirty studies involving 8257 participants met the inclusion criteria of the review, of which 28 studies reported results in sufficient detail for the meta-analyses. Most studies were of six months' duration or less. Only one small trial lasted 52 weeks. The studies tested mainly donepezil capsules at a dose of 5 mg/day or 10 mg/day. Two studies tested a slow-release oral formulation that delivered 23 mg/day. Participants in 21 studies had mild to moderate disease, in five studies moderate to severe, and in four severe disease. Seventeen studies were industry funded or sponsored, four studies were funded independently of industry and for nine studies there was no information on source of funding.Our main analysis compared the safety and efficacy of donepezil 10 mg/day with placebo at 24 to 26 weeks of treatment. Thirteen studies contributed data from 3396 participants to this analysis. Eleven of these studies were multicentre studies. Seven studies recruited patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease, two with moderate to severe, and four with severe Alzheimer's disease, with a mean age of about 75 years. Almost all evidence was of moderate quality, downgraded due to study limitations.After 26 weeks of treatment, donepezil compared with placebo was associated with better outcomes for cognitive function measured with the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive (ADAS-Cog, range 0 to 70) (mean difference (MD) -2.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) -3.31 to -2.02, 1130 participants, 5 studies), the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score (MD 1.05, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.37, 1757 participants, 7 studies) and the Severe Impairment Battery (SIB, range 0 to 100) (MD 5.92, 95% CI 4.53 to 7.31, 1348 participants, 5 studies). Donepezil was also associated with better function measured with the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study activities of daily living score for severe Alzheimer's disease (ADCS-ADL-sev) (MD 1.03, 95% CI 0.21 to 1.85, 733 participants, 3 studies). A higher proportion of participants treated with donepezil experienced improvement on the clinician-rated global impression of change scale (odds ratio (OR) 1.92, 95% CI 1.54 to 2.39, 1674 participants, 6 studies). There was no difference between donepezil and placebo for behavioural symptoms measured by the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) (MD -1.62, 95% CI -3.43 to 0.19, 1035 participants, 4 studies) or by the Behavioural Pathology in Alzheimer's Disease (BEHAVE-AD) scale (MD 0.4, 95% CI -1.28 to 2.08, 194 participants, 1 study). There was also no difference between donepezil and placebo for Quality of Life (QoL) (MD -2.79, 95% CI -8.15 to 2.56, 815 participants, 2 studies).Participants receiving donepezil were more likely to withdraw from the studies before the end of treatment (24% versus 20%, OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.50, 2846 participants, 12 studies) or to experience an adverse event during the studies (72% vs 65%, OR 1.59, 95% 1.31 to 1.95, 2500 participants, 10 studies).There was no evidence of a difference between donepezil and placebo for patient total healthcare resource utilisation.Three studies compared donepezil 10 mg/day to donepezil 5 mg/day over 26 weeks. The 5 mg dose was associated with slightly worse cognitive function on the ADAS-Cog, but not on the MMSE or SIB, with slightly better QoL and with fewer adverse events and withdrawals from treatment. Two studies compared donepezil 10 mg/day to donepezil 23 mg/day. There were no differences on efficacy outcomes, but fewer participants on 10 mg/day experienced adverse events or withdrew from treatment. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is moderate-quality evidence that people with mild, moderate or severe dementia due to Alzheimer's disease treated for periods of 12 or 24 weeks with donepezil experience small benefits in cognitive function, activities of daily living and clinician-rated global clinical state. There is some evidence that use of donepezil is neither more nor less expensive compared with placebo when assessing total healthcare resource costs. Benefits on 23 mg/day were no greater than on 10 mg/day, and benefits on the 10 mg/day dose were marginally larger than on the 5 mg/day dose, but the rates of withdrawal and of adverse events before end of treatment were higher the higher the dose.
Assuntos
Doença de Alzheimer/tratamento farmacológico , Inibidores da Colinesterase/uso terapêutico , Indanos/uso terapêutico , Nootrópicos/uso terapêutico , Piperidinas/uso terapêutico , Cognição/efeitos dos fármacos , Transtornos Cognitivos/tratamento farmacológico , Donepezila , Humanos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como AssuntoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Valvular heart disease (VHD) is expected to become more common as the population ages. However, current estimates of its natural history and prevalence are based on historical studies with potential sources of bias. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of VHD identified at recruitment of a large cohort of older people. METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled 2500 individuals aged ≥65 years from a primary care population and screened for undiagnosed VHD using transthoracic echocardiography. Newly identified (predominantly mild) VHD was detected in 51% of participants. The most common abnormalities were aortic sclerosis (34%), mitral regurgitation (22%), and aortic regurgitation (15%). Aortic stenosis was present in 1.3%. The likelihood of undiagnosed VHD was two-fold higher in the two most deprived socioeconomic quintiles than in the most affluent quintile, and three-fold higher in individuals with atrial fibrillation. Clinically significant (moderate or severe) undiagnosed VHD was identified in 6.4%. In addition, 4.9% of the cohort had pre-existing VHD (a total prevalence of 11.3%). Projecting these findings using population data, we estimate that the prevalence of clinically significant VHD will double before 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Previously undetected VHD affects 1 in 2 of the elderly population and is more common in lower socioeconomic classes. These unique data demonstrate the contemporary clinical and epidemiological characteristics of VHD in a large population-based cohort of older people and confirm the scale of the emerging epidemic of VHD, with widespread implications for clinicians and healthcare resources.
Assuntos
Doenças das Valvas Cardíacas , Idoso , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Transversais , Ecocardiografia , HumanosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Previous analyses of the International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial (ISAT) cohort have reported on the risks of recurrent subarachnoid haemorrhage and death or dependency for a minimum of 5 years and up to a maximum of 14 years after treatment of a ruptured intracranial aneurysm with either neurosurgical clipping or endovascular coiling. At 1 year there was a 7% absolute and a 24% relative risk reduction of death and dependency in the coiling group compared with the clipping group, but the medium-term results showed the increased need for re-treatment of the target aneurysm in the patients given coiling. We report the long-term follow-up of patients in this UK cohort. METHODS: In ISAT, patients were randomly allocated to either neurosurgical clipping or endovascular coiling after a subarachnoid haemorrhage, assuming treatment equipoise, between Sept 12, 1994, and May 1, 2002. We followed up 1644 patients in 22 UK neurosurgical centres for death and clinical outcomes for 10·0-18·5 years. We assessed dependency as self-reported modified Rankin scale score obtained through yearly questionnaires. Data for recurrent aneurysms and rebleeding events were collected from questionnaires and from hospital and general practitioner records. The Office for National Statistics supplied data on deaths. This study is registered, number ISRCTN49866681. FINDINGS: At 10 years, 674 (83%) of 809 patients allocated endovascular coiling and 657 (79%) of 835 patients allocated neurosurgical clipping were alive (odds ratio [OR] 1·35, 95% CI 1·06-1·73). Of 1003 individuals who returned a questionnaire at 10 years, 435 (82%) patients treated with endovascular coiling and 370 (78%) patients treated with neurosurgical clipping were independent (modified Rankin scale score 0-2; OR 1·25; 95% CI 0·92-1·71). Patients in the endovascular treatment group were more likely to be alive and independent at 10 years than were patients in the neurosurgery group (OR 1·34, 95% CI 1·07-1·67). 33 patients had a recurrent subarachnoid haemorrhage more than 1 year after their initial haemorrhage (17 from the target aneurysm). INTERPRETATION: Although rates of increased dependency alone did not differ between groups, the probability of death or dependency was significantly greater in the neurosurgical group than in the endovascular group. Rebleeding was more likely after endovascular coiling than after neurosurgical clipping, but the risk was small and the probability of disability-free survival was significantly greater in the endovascular group than in the neurosurgical group at 10 years. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.
Assuntos
Aneurisma Roto/terapia , Embolização Terapêutica/métodos , Aneurisma Intracraniano/terapia , Procedimentos Neurocirúrgicos/métodos , Hemorragia Subaracnóidea/terapia , Aneurisma Roto/mortalidade , Intervalo Livre de Doença , Embolização Terapêutica/mortalidade , Feminino , Humanos , Aneurisma Intracraniano/mortalidade , Masculino , Procedimentos Neurocirúrgicos/mortalidade , Hemorragia Subaracnóidea/mortalidade , Inquéritos e Questionários , Resultado do Tratamento , Reino UnidoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease is the commonest cause of dementia affecting older people. One of the therapeutic strategies aimed at ameliorating the clinical manifestations of Alzheimer's disease is to enhance cholinergic neurotransmission in the brain by the use of cholinesterase inhibitors to delay the breakdown of acetylcholine released into synaptic clefts. Tacrine, the first of the cholinesterase inhibitors to undergo extensive trials for this purpose, was associated with significant adverse effects including hepatotoxicity. Other cholinesterase inhibitors, including rivastigmine, with superior properties in terms of specificity of action and lower risk of adverse effects have since been introduced. Rivastigmine has received approval for use in 60 countries including all member states of the European Union and the USA. OBJECTIVES: To determine the clinical efficacy and safety of rivastigmine for patients with dementia of Alzheimer's type. SEARCH METHODS: We searched ALOIS, the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group Specialized Register, on 2 March 2015 using the terms: Rivastigmine OR exelon OR ENA OR "SDZ ENA 713". ALOIS contains records of clinical trials identified from monthly searches of a number of major healthcare databases (Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, LILACS), numerous trial registries and grey literature sources. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all unconfounded, double-blind, randomised, controlled trials in which treatment with rivastigmine was administered to patients with dementia of the Alzheimer's type for 12 weeks or more and its effects compared with those of placebo in a parallel group of patients, or where two formulations of rivastigmine were compared. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: One review author (JSB) applied the study selection criteria, assessed the quality of studies and extracted data. MAIN RESULTS: A total of 13 trials met the inclusion criteria of the review. The trials had a duration of between 12 and 52 weeks. The older trials tested a capsule form with a dose of up to 12 mg/day. Trials reported since 2007 have tested continuous dose transdermal patch formulations delivering 4.6, 9.5 and 17.7 mg/day.Our main analysis compared the safety and efficacy of rivastigmine 6 to 12 mg/day orally or 9.5 mg/day transdermally with placebo.Seven trials contributed data from 3450 patients to this analysis. Data from another two studies were not included because of a lack of information and methodological concerns. All the included trials were multicentre trials and recruited patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease with a mean age of about 75 years. All had low risk of bias for randomisation and allocation but the risk of bias due to attrition was unclear in four studies, low in one study and high in two studies.After 26 weeks of treatment rivastigmine compared to placebo was associated with better outcomes for cognitive function measured with the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive (ADAS-Cog) score (mean difference (MD) -1.79; 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.21 to -1.37, n = 3232, 6 studies) and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score (MD 0.74; 95% CI 0.52 to 0.97, n = 3205, 6 studies), activities of daily living (SMD 0.20; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.27, n = 3230, 6 studies) and clinician rated global impression of changes, with a smaller proportion of patients treated with rivastigmine experiencing no change or a deterioration (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.80, n = 3338, 7 studies).Three studies reported behavioural change, and there were no differences compared to placebo (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.04; 95% CI -0.14 to 0.06, n = 1529, 3 studies). Only one study measured the impact on caregivers using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Caregiver Distress (NPI-D) scale and this found no difference between the groups (MD 0.10; 95% CI -0.91 to 1.11, n = 529, 1 study). Overall, participants who received rivastigmine were about twice as likely to withdraw from the trials (odds ratio (OR) 2.01, 95% CI 1.71 to 2.37, n = 3569, 7 studies) or to experience an adverse event during the trials (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.82 to 2.57, n = 3587, 7 studies). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Rivastigmine (6 to 12 mg daily orally or 9.5 mg daily transdermally) appears to be beneficial for people with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease. In comparisons with placebo, better outcomes were observed for rate of decline of cognitive function and activities of daily living, although the effects were small and of uncertain clinical importance. There was also a benefit from rivastigmine on the outcome of clinician's global assessment. There were no differences between the rivastigmine group and placebo group in behavioural change or impact on carers. At these doses the transdermal patch may have fewer side effects than the capsules but has comparable efficacy. The quality of evidence is only moderate for all of the outcomes reviewed because of a risk of bias due to dropouts. All the studies with usable data were industry funded or sponsored. This review has not examined economic data.
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Doença de Alzheimer/tratamento farmacológico , Inibidores da Colinesterase/administração & dosagem , Fenilcarbamatos/administração & dosagem , Cuidadores/psicologia , Inibidores da Colinesterase/efeitos adversos , Transtornos Cognitivos/tratamento farmacológico , Esquema de Medicação , Humanos , Fenilcarbamatos/efeitos adversos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Rivastigmina , Índice de Gravidade de DoençaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease is the commonest cause of dementia affecting older people. One of the therapeutic strategies aimed at ameliorating the clinical manifestations of Alzheimer's disease is to enhance cholinergic neurotransmission in the brain by the use of cholinesterase inhibitors to delay the breakdown of acetylcholine released into synaptic clefts. Tacrine, the first of the cholinesterase inhibitors to undergo extensive trials for this purpose, was associated with significant adverse effects including hepatotoxicity. Other cholinesterase inhibitors, including rivastigmine, with superior properties in terms of specificity of action and lower risk of adverse effects have since been introduced. Rivastigmine has received approval for use in 60 countries including all member states of the European Union and the USA. OBJECTIVES: To determine the clinical efficacy and safety of rivastigmine for patients with dementia of Alzheimer's type. SEARCH METHODS: We searched ALOIS, the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group Specialized Register, on 2 March 2015 using the terms: Rivastigmine OR exelon OR ENA OR "SDZ ENA 713". ALOIS contains records of clinical trials identified from monthly searches of a number of major healthcare databases (Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, LILACS), numerous trial registries and grey literature sources. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all unconfounded, double-blind, randomised, controlled trials in which treatment with rivastigmine was administered to patients with dementia of the Alzheimer's type for 12 weeks or more and its effects compared with those of placebo in a parallel group of patients, or where two formulations of rivastigmine were compared. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: One review author (JSB) applied the study selection criteria, assessed the quality of studies and extracted data. MAIN RESULTS: A total of 13 trials met the inclusion criteria of the review. The trials had a duration of between 12 and 52 weeks. The older trials tested a capsule form with a dose of up to 12 mg/day. Trials reported since 2007 have tested continuous dose transdermal patch formulations delivering 4.6, 9.5 and 17.7 mg/day.Our main analysis compared the safety and efficacy of rivastigmine 6 to 12 mg/day orally or 9.5 mg/day transdermally with placebo.Seven trials contributed data from 3450 patients to this analysis. Data from another two studies were not included because of a lack of information and methodological concerns. All the included trials were multicentre trials and recruited patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease with a mean age of about 75 years. All had low risk of bias for randomisation and allocation but the risk of bias due to attrition was unclear in four studies, low in one study and high in two studies.After 26 weeks of treatment rivastigmine compared to placebo was associated with better outcomes for cognitive function measured with the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive (ADAS-Cog) score (mean difference (MD) -1.79; 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.21 to -1.37, n = 3232, 6 studies) and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score (MD 0.74; 95% CI 0.52 to 0.97, n = 3205, 6 studies), activities of daily living (SMD 0.20; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.27, n = 3230, 6 studies) and clinician rated global impression of changes, with a smaller proportion of patients treated with rivastigmine experiencing no change or a deterioration (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.80, n = 3338, 7 studies).Three studies reported behavioural change, and there were no differences compared to placebo (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.04; 95% CI -0.14 to 0.06, n = 1529, 3 studies). Only one study measured the impact on caregivers using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Caregiver Distress (NPI-D) scale and this found no difference between the groups (MD 0.10; 95% CI -0.91 to 1.11, n = 529, 1 study). Overall, participants who received rivastigmine were about twice as likely to withdraw from the trials (odds ratio (OR) 2.01, 95% CI 1.71 to 2.37, n = 3569, 7 studies) or to experience an adverse event during the trials (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.82 to 2.57, n = 3587, 7 studies). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Rivastigmine (6 to 12 mg daily orally or 9.5 mg daily transdermally) appears to be beneficial for people with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease. In comparisons with placebo, better outcomes were observed for rate of decline of cognitive function and activities of daily living, although the effects were small and of uncertain clinical importance. There was also a benefit from rivastigmine on the outcome of clinician's global assessment. There were no differences between the rivastigmine group and placebo group in behavioural change or impact on carers. At these doses the transdermal patch may have fewer side effects than the capsules but has comparable efficacy. The quality of evidence is only moderate for all of the outcomes reviewed because of a risk of bias due to dropouts. All the studies with usable data were industry funded or sponsored. This review has not examined economic data.
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Digital pathology continues to gain momentum, with the promise of artificial intelligence to aid diagnosis and for assessment of features which may impact prognosis and clinical management. Successful adoption of these technologies depends upon the quality of digitised whole-slide images (WSI); however, current quality control largely depends upon manual assessment, which is inefficient and subjective. We previously developed PathProfiler, an automated image quality assessment tool, and in this feasibility study we investigate its potential for incorporation into a diagnostic clinical pathology setting in real-time. A total of 1254 genitourinary WSI were analysed by PathProfiler. PathProfiler was developed and trained on prostate tissue and, of the prostate biopsy WSI, representing 46% of the WSI analysed, 4.5% were flagged as potentially being of suboptimal quality for diagnosis. All had concordant subjective issues, mainly focus-related, 54% severe enough to warrant remedial action which resulted in improved image quality. PathProfiler was less reliable in assessment of non-prostate surgical resection-type cases, on which it had not been trained. PathProfiler shows potential for incorporation into a digitised clinical pathology workflow, with opportunity for image quality improvement. Whilst its reliability in the current form appears greatest for assessment of prostate specimens, other specimen types, particularly biopsies, also showed benefit.
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OBJECTIVE: C-peptide and islet autoantibodies are key type 1 diabetes biomarkers, typically requiring venous sampling, which limits their utility. We assessed transdermal capillary blood (TCB) collection as a practical alternative. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Ninety-one individuals (71 with type 1 diabetes, 20 control; individuals with type 1 diabetes: aged median 14.8 years [interquartile range (IQR) 9.1-17.1], diabetes duration 4.0 years [1.5-7.7]; control individuals: 42.2 years [38.0-52.1]) underwent contemporaneous venous and TCB sampling for measurement of plasma C-peptide. Participants with type 1 diabetes also provided venous serum and plasma, and TCB plasma for measurement of autoantibodies to glutamate decarboxylase, islet antigen-2, and zinc transporter 8. The ability of TCB plasma to detect significant endogenous insulin secretion (venous C-peptide ≥200 pmol/L) was compared along with agreement in levels, using Bland-Altman. Venous serum was compared with venous and TCB plasma for detection of autoantibodies, using established thresholds. Acceptability was assessed by age-appropriate questionnaire. RESULTS: Transdermal sampling took a mean of 2.35 min (SD 1.49). Median sample volume was 50 µL (IQR 40-50) with 3 of 91 (3.3%) failures, and 13 of 88 (14.7%) <35 µL. TCB C-peptide showed good agreement with venous plasma (mean venous ln[C-peptide] - TCB ln[C-peptide] = 0.008, 95% CI [-0.23, 0.29], with 100% [36 of 36] sensitivity/100% [50 of 50] specificity to detect venous C-peptide ≥200 pmol/L). Where venous serum in multiple autoantibody positive TCB plasma agreed in 22 of 32 (sensitivity 69%), comparative specificity was 35 of 36 (97%). TCB was preferred to venous sampling (type 1 diabetes: 63% vs. 7%; 30% undecided). CONCLUSIONS: Transdermal capillary testing for C-peptide is a sensitive, specific, and acceptable alternative to venous sampling; TCB sampling for islet autoantibodies needs further assessment.
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Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1 , Adulto , Criança , Humanos , Idoso , Peptídeo C , Autoanticorpos , Coleta de Amostras Sanguíneas , Biomarcadores , Glutamato DescarboxilaseRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Vascular dementia represents the second most common type of dementia after Alzheimer's disease. In older patients, in particular, the combination of vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease is common, and is referred to as mixed dementia. The classification of vascular dementia broadly follows three clinico-pathological processes: multi-infarct dementia, single strategic infarct dementia and subcortical dementia. Not all victims fulfil strict criteria for dementia and may be significantly cognitively impaired without memory loss, when the term vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) is more useful. Currently, no established standard treatment for VCI exists. Reductions in acetylcholine and acetyltransferase activity are common to both Alzheimer's disease and VCI, raising the possibility that cholinesterase inhibitors - such as rivastigmine - which are beneficial in Alzheimer's disease, may also be beneficial for VCI. OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy of rivastigmine compared with placebo in the treatment of people with vascular cognitive impairment (VCI), vascular dementia or mixed dementia. SEARCH METHODS: We searched ALOIS (the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group's Specialized Register) on 12 February 2013 using the terms: rivastigmine, exelon, "SDZ ENA 713". ALOIS contains records of clinical trials identified from monthly searches of a number of major healthcare databases (The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, LILACS), numerous trial registries and grey literature sources. SELECTION CRITERIA: All unconfounded randomized double-blind trials comparing rivastigmine with placebo in the treatment of people with VCI, vascular dementia or mixed dementia were eligible for inclusion. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers extracted and assessed data independently, and agreement was reached after discussion. They noted results concerning adverse effects. MAIN RESULTS: Three trials, with a total of 800 participants, were identified for inclusion. The participants in one trial did not have dementia, while the other two studies included participants with dementia of different severities. The dose of rivastigmine was different in each study. No pooling of study results was attempted because of these differences between the studies.One trial included 40 participants with subcortical vascular dementia (age range 40 to 90 years) with a mean mini-mental state examination (MMSE) score of 13.0 and 13.4 in the rivastigmine and placebo arms, respectively. Treatment over 26 weeks was limited to 3 mg rivastigmine twice daily, or placebo. No significant difference was found on any outcome measure relevant to cognition, neuropsychiatric symptoms, function or global rating, or in the number of withdrawals before the end of treatment.Another trial included 710 participants with vascular dementia, including subcortical and cortical forms (age range 50 to 85 years). Over 24 weeks, a mean dose of rivastigmine of 9.4 mg/day was achieved versus placebo. Baseline MMSE was identical for both groups, at 19.1. Statistically significant advantage in cognitive response (but not with global impression of change or non-cognitive measures) was seen with rivastigmine treatment at 24 weeks (MMSE change from baseline MD 0.6, 95% CI 0.11 to 1.09, P value 0.02; Vascular Dementia Assessment Scale (VaDAS) change from baseline MD -1.3, 95% CI-2.62 to 0.02, P value 0.05 ). Significantly higher rates of vomiting, nausea, diarrhoea and anorexia and withdrawals from treatment were noted in the participants randomized to rivastigmine compared with placebo (withdrawals rivastigmine 90/365, placebo 48/345, OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.38 to 2.98) (withdrawals due to an adverse event rivastigmine 49/365, placebo 19/345, OR 2.66, 95% CI 1.53 to 4.62, P value 0.0005).The third study included 50 participants (age range 48 to 84 years) with mean MMSE scores of 23.7 and 23.9 in the rivastigmine and placebo arms, respectively. Over a 24-week period, participants labelled as having cognitive impairment but no dementia (CIND) following ischaemic stroke were given up to 4.5 mg rivastigmine twice daily, or placebo. Primary and secondary outcome measures showed no statistically significant difference when considering neurocognitive abilities, function, neuropsychiatric symptoms and global performance. One participant in the rivastigmine group and two in the placebo group discontinued their medication because of an adverse effect. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is some evidence of benefit of rivastigmine in VCI from trial data from three studies. However, this conclusion is based on one large study. Rivastigmine is capable of inducing side effects that lead to withdrawal in a significant proportion of patients.
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Inibidores da Colinesterase/uso terapêutico , Demência Vascular/tratamento farmacológico , Nootrópicos/uso terapêutico , Fenilcarbamatos/uso terapêutico , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , RivastigminaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Rare human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected individuals who maintain control of viremia without therapy show potent CD8+ T-cell-mediated suppression of viral replication in vitro. Whether this is a determinant of the rate of disease progression in viremic individuals is unknown. METHODS: We measured CD8+ T-cell-mediated inhibition of a heterologous HIV-1 isolate in 50 HIV-1-seropositive adults with diverse progression rates. Linear mixed models were used to determine whether CD8+ T-cell function could explain variation in the rate of CD4+ T-cell decline. RESULTS: There was a significant interaction between CD8+ T-cell antiviral activity in vitro and the rate of CD4+ T-cell decline in chronically infected individuals (P < .0001). In a second prospective analysis of recently infected subjects followed for up to 3 years, CD8+ T-cell antiviral activity strongly predicted subsequent CD4+ T-cell decline (P < .0001) and explained up to 73% of the interindividual variation in the CD4+ T-cell slope. In addition, it was inversely associated with viral load set point (r = -0.68 and P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: The antiviral inhibitory capacity of CD8+ T cells is highly predictive of CD4+ T-cell loss in early HIV-1 infection. It has potential as a benchmark of effective immunity in vaccine evaluation.
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Linfócitos T CD8-Positivos/imunologia , Infecções por HIV/imunologia , Infecções por HIV/virologia , HIV-1/imunologia , Adulto , Biomarcadores , Contagem de Linfócito CD4 , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , PrognósticoRESUMO
Studies investigating the association between acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) use and spontaneous subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) in the general population have produced conflicting results. The aim of this study is to clarify the relationship between SAH and ASA. We included all participants who reported on ASA use during interim examinations of the Framingham Heart Study Cohorts. Using Cox proportional-hazards regression modelling, we estimated the hazard ratio (HR) associated with ASA use. 7692 participants were included in this study. There were 30 cases of SAH during follow up, with an estimated incidence of 10.0 per 100,000 person- years (CI 6.90-14.15). Univariate analysis showed no association between regular ASA use and SAH (HR, 0.33 [0.08-1.41]; p = 0.14). This was similar when accounting for smoking (HR, 0.35 [0.08-1.51]; p = 0.16). Using a large longitudinal dataset from the Framingham Heart Study, we observed some evidence suggesting fewer SAH in those participants taking regular ASA. However, multivariate statistical analysis showed no significant association between ASA use and SAH. Due to the low incidence of SAH in the general population, the absolute number of SAH events was low and it remains uncertain if a significant effect would become apparent with more follow up.
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Aspirina , Hemorragia Subaracnóidea , Humanos , Aspirina/efeitos adversos , Hemorragia Subaracnóidea/epidemiologia , Hemorragia Subaracnóidea/etiologia , Fatores de Risco , Fumar , Estudos LongitudinaisRESUMO
Previous studies investigating the relationship between aspirin use and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) have yielded conflicting results. In this study, we aimed to clarify the association between aspirin and SAH in the general population. The UK Biobank is a prospective population-based cohort study. Sex, age, smoking, alcohol, medication use, hypertension, blood pressure, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were recorded at baseline assessments. Follow-up is conducted through linkages to National Health Service data including electronic, coded death certificate, hospital and primary care data. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to analyse the association between aspirin use and SAH. Of the 501,060 participants included in the analysis, a total of 579 suffered from spontaneous SAH after their baseline assessment. There was no relationship between aspirin and SAH of all causes (HR, 1.16 [0.92-1.46]), aneurysmal SAH (HR, 1.15 [0.91-1.47]) or non-aneurysmal SAH (HR, 1.29 [0.54-3.09]). Aspirin use was associated with SAH resulting in death (HR, 1.69 [1.14-2.51]), especially out of hospital death (HR, 2.10 [1.13-3.91]). Despite reports of a protective association between aspirin and SAH in patients with known unruptured aneurysms, this study has not demonstrated the same effect in the general population. However, aspirin users were more likely to suffer SAH resulting in death, especially out of hospital.
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Hemorragia Subaracnóidea , Humanos , Hemorragia Subaracnóidea/complicações , Aspirina/efeitos adversos , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Prospectivos , Bancos de Espécimes Biológicos , Medicina Estatal , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Simple blood tests can play an important role in identifying patients for cancer investigation. The current evidence base is limited almost entirely to tests used in isolation. However, recent evidence suggests combining multiple types of blood tests and investigating trends in blood test results over time could be more useful to select patients for further cancer investigation. Such trends could increase cancer yield and reduce unnecessary referrals. We aim to explore whether trends in blood test results are more useful than symptoms or single blood test results in selecting primary care patients for cancer investigation. We aim to develop clinical prediction models that incorporate trends in blood tests to identify the risk of cancer. METHODS: Primary care electronic health record data from the English Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care database will be accessed and linked to cancer registrations and secondary care datasets. Using a cohort study design, we will describe patterns in blood testing (aim 1) and explore associations between covariates and trends in blood tests with cancer using mixed-effects, Cox, and dynamic models (aim 2). To build the predictive models for the risk of cancer, we will use dynamic risk modelling (such as multivariate joint modelling) and machine learning, incorporating simultaneous trends in multiple blood tests, together with other covariates (aim 3). Model performance will be assessed using various performance measures, including c-statistic and calibration plots. DISCUSSION: These models will form decision rules to help general practitioners find patients who need a referral for further investigation of cancer. This could increase cancer yield, reduce unnecessary referrals, and give more patients the opportunity for treatment and improved outcomes.
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INTRODUCTION: Unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA) are common in the adult population, but only a relatively small proportion will rupture. It is therefore essential to have accurate estimates of rupture risk to target treatment towards those who stand to benefit and avoid exposing patients to the risks of unnecessary treatment. The best available UIA natural history data are the PHASES study. However, this has never been validated and given the known heterogeneity in the populations, methods and biases of the constituent studies, there is a need to do so. There are also many potential predictors not considered in PHASES that require evaluation, and the estimated rupture risk is largely based on short-term follow-up (mostly 1 year). The aims of this study are to: (1) test the accuracy of PHASES in a UK population, (2) evaluate additional predictors of rupture and (3) assess long-term UIA rupture rates. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Risk of Aneurysm Rupture study is a longitudinal multicentre study that will identify patients with known UIA seen in neurosurgery units. Patients will have baseline demographics and aneurysm characteristics collected by their neurosurgery unit and then a single aggregated national cohort will be linked to databases of hospital admissions and deaths to identify all patients who may have subsequently suffered a subarachnoid haemorrhage. All matched admissions and deaths will be checked against medical records to confirm the diagnosis of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage. The target sample size is 20 000 patients. The primary outcome will be aneurysm rupture resulting in hospital admission or death. Cox regression models will be built to test each of the study's aims. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been given by South Central Hampshire A Research Ethics Committee (21SC0064) and Confidentiality Advisory Group support (21CAG0033) provided under Section 251 of the NHS Act 2006. The results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN17658526.