The effectiveness of out-of-hours palliative care telephone advice lines: A rapid systematic review.

BACKGROUND: People with palliative care needs and their carers often rely on out-of-hours services to remain at home. Policymakers have recommended implementing telephone advice lines to ensure 24/7 access to support. However, the impact of these services on patient and carer outcomes, as well as the health care system, remains poorly understood. AIM: To evaluate the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of out-of-hours palliative care telephone advice lines, and to identify service characteristics associated with effectiveness. DESIGN: Rapid systematic review (PROSPERO ID: CRD42023400370) with narrative synthesis. DATA SOURCES: Three databases (Medline, EMBASE and CINAHL) were searched in February 2023 for studies of any design reporting on telephone advice lines with at least partial out-of-hours availability. Study quality was assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool, and quantitative and qualitative data were synthesised narratively. RESULTS: Twenty-one studies, published 2000-2022, were included. Most studies were observational, none were experimental. While some evidence suggested that telephone advice lines offer guidance and reassurance, supporting care at home and potentially reducing avoidable emergency care use in the last months of life, variability in reporting and poor methodological quality across studies limit our understanding of patient/carer and health care system outcomes. CONCLUSION: Despite their increasing use, evidence for the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of palliative care telephone advice lines remains limited, primarily due to the lack of robust comparative studies. There is a need for more rigorous evaluations incorporating experimental or quasi-experimental methods and longer follow-up, and standardised reporting of telephone advice line models and outcomes, to guide policy and practice.

Deaths at home, area-based deprivation and the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic: An analysis of mortality data across four nations.

BACKGROUND: The number and proportion of home deaths in the UK increased during the Covid-19 pandemic. It is not known whether these changes were experienced disproportionately by people from different socioeconomic groups. AIM: To examine the association between home death and socioeconomic position during the Covid-19 pandemic, and how this changed between 2019 and 2020. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using population-based individual-level mortality data. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: All registered deaths in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The proportion of home deaths between 28th March and 31st December 2020 was compared with the same period in 2019. We used Poisson regression models to evaluate the association between decedent's area-based level of deprivation and risk of home death, as well as the interaction between deprivation and year of death, for each nation separately. RESULTS: Between the 28th March and 31st December 2020, 409,718 deaths were recorded in England, 46,372 in Scotland, 26,410 in Wales and 13,404 in Northern Ireland. All four nations showed an increase in the adjusted proportion of home deaths between 2019 and 2020, ranging from 21 to 28%. This increase was lowest for people living in the most deprived areas in all nations, with evidence of a deprivation gradient in England. CONCLUSIONS: The Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated a previously described socioeconomic inequality in place of death in the UK. Further research to understand the reasons for this change and if this inequality has been sustained is needed.

Changes in mortality patterns and place of death during the COVID-19 pandemic: A descriptive analysis of mortality data across four nations.

BACKGROUND: Understanding patterns of mortality and place of death during the COVID-19 pandemic is important to help provide appropriate services and resources. AIMS: To analyse patterns of mortality including place of death in the United Kingdom (UK) (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) during the COVID-19 pandemic to date. DESIGN: Descriptive analysis of UK mortality data between March 2020 and March 2021. Weekly number of deaths was described by place of death, using the following definitions: (1) expected deaths: average expected deaths estimated using historical data (2015-19); (2) COVID-19 deaths: where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate; (3) additional non-COVID-19 deaths: above expected but not attributed to COVID-19; (4) baseline deaths: up to and including expected deaths but excluding COVID-19 deaths. RESULTS: During the analysis period, 798,643 deaths were registered in the UK, of which 147,282 were COVID-19 deaths and 17,672 were additional non-COVID-19 deaths. While numbers of people who died in care homes and hospitals increased above expected only during the pandemic waves, the numbers of people who died at home remained above expected both during and between the pandemic waves, with an overall increase of 41%. CONCLUSIONS: Where people died changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with an increase in deaths at home during and between pandemic waves. This has implications for planning and organisation of palliative care and community services. The extent to which these changes will persist longer term remains unclear. Further research could investigate whether this is reflected in other countries with high COVID-19 mortality.

Changing patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: Population-based modelling to understand palliative care implications.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has directly and indirectly caused high mortality worldwide. AIM: To explore patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and implications for palliative care, service planning and research. DESIGN: Descriptive analysis and population-based modelling of routine data. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: All deaths registered in England and Wales between 7 March and 15 May 2020. We described the following mortality categories by age, gender and place of death: (1) baseline deaths (deaths that would typically occur in a given period); (2) COVID-19 deaths and (3) additional deaths not directly attributed to COVID-19. We estimated the proportion of people who died from COVID-19 who might have been in their last year of life in the absence of the pandemic using simple modelling with explicit assumptions. RESULTS: During the first 10 weeks of the pandemic, there were 101,614 baseline deaths, 41,105 COVID-19 deaths and 14,520 additional deaths. Deaths in care homes increased by 220%, while home and hospital deaths increased by 77% and 90%, respectively. Hospice deaths fell by 20%. Additional deaths were among older people (86% aged ⩾ 75 years), and most occurred in care homes (56%) and at home (43%). We estimate that 22% (13%-31%) of COVID-19 deaths occurred among people who might have been in their last year of life in the absence of the pandemic. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a surge in palliative care needs. Health and social care systems must ensure availability of palliative care to support people with severe COVID-19, particularly in care homes.

Service Delivery Models to Maximize Quality of Life for Older People at the End of Life: A Rapid Review.

Policy Points We identified two overarching classifications of integrated geriatric and palliative care to maximize older people's quality of life at the end of life. Both are oriented to person-centered care, but with differing emphasis on either function or symptoms and concerns. Policymakers should both improve access to palliative care beyond just the last months of life and increase geriatric care provision to maintain and optimize function. This would ensure that continuity and coordination for potentially complex care needs across the continuum of late life would be maintained, where the demarcation of boundaries between healthy aging and healthy dying become increasingly blurred. Our findings highlight the urgent need for health system change to improve end-of-life care as part of universal health coverage. The use of health services should be informed by the likelihood of benefits and intended outcomes rather than on prognosis. CONTEXT: In an era of unprecedented global aging, a key priority is to align health and social services for older populations in order to support the dual priorities of living well while adapting to a gradual decline in function. We aimed to provide a comprehensive synthesis of evidence regarding service delivery models that optimize the quality of life (QoL) for older people at the end of life across health, social, and welfare services worldwide. METHODS: We conducted a rapid scoping review of systematic reviews. We searched MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, and CDSR databases from 2000 to 2017 for reviews reporting the effectiveness of service models aimed at optimizing QoL for older people, more than 50% of whom were older than 60 and in the last one or two years of life. We assessed the quality of these included reviews using AMSTAR and synthesized the findings narratively. RESULTS: Of the 2,238 reviews identified, we included 72, with 20 reporting meta-analysis. Although all the World Health Organization (WHO) regions were represented, most of the reviews reported data from the Americas (52 of 72), Europe (46 of 72), and/or the Western Pacific (28 of 72). We identified two overarching classifications of service models but with different target outcomes: Integrated Geriatric Care, emphasizing physical function, and Integrated Palliative Care, focusing mainly on symptoms and concerns. Areas of synergy across the overarching classifications included person-centered care, education, and a multiprofessional workforce. The reviews assessed 117 separate outcomes. A meta-analysis demonstrated effectiveness for both classifications on QoL, including symptoms such as pain, depression, and psychological well-being. Economic analysis and its implications were poorly considered. CONCLUSIONS: Despite their different target outcomes, those service models classified as Integrated Geriatric Care or Integrated Palliative Care were effective in improving QoL for older people nearing the end of life. Both approaches highlight the imperative for integrating services across the care continuum, with service involvement triggered by the patient's needs and likelihood of benefits. To inform the sustainability of health system change we encourage economic analyses that span health and social care and examine all sources of finance to understand contextual inequalities.

Patterns of emergency department attendance among older people in the last three months of life and factors associated with frequent attendance: a mortality follow-back survey.

BACKGROUND: frequent emergency department (ED) attendance at the end of life disrupts care continuity and contradicts most patients' preference for home-based care. OBJECTIVE: to examine factors associated with frequent (≥3) end of life ED attendances among older people to identify opportunities to improve care. METHODS: pooled data from two mortality follow-back surveys in England. Respondents were family members of people aged ≥65 who died four to ten months previously. We used multivariable modified Poisson regression to examine illness, service and sociodemographic factors associated with ≥3 ED attendances, and directed content analysis to explore free-text responses. RESULTS: 688 respondents (responses from 42.0%); most were sons/daughters (60.5%). Mean age at death was 85 years. 36.5% had a primary diagnosis of cancer and 16.3% respiratory disease. 80/661 (12.1%) attended ED ≥3 times, accounting for 43% of all end of life attendances. From the multivariable model, respiratory disease (reference cancer) and ≥2 comorbidities (reference 0) were associated with frequent ED attendance (adjusted prevalence ratio 2.12, 95% CI 1.21-3.71 and 1.81, 1.07-3.06). Those with ≥7 community nursing contacts (reference 0 contacts) were more likely to frequently attend ED (2.65, 1.49-4.72), whereas those identifying a key health professional were less likely (0.58, 0.37-0.88). Analysis of free-text found inadequate community support, lack of coordinated care and untimely hospital discharge were key issues. CONCLUSIONS: assigning a key health professional to older people at increased risk of frequent end of life ED attendance, e.g. those with respiratory disease and/or multiple comorbidities, may reduce ED attendances by improving care coordination.

Factors associated with older people's emergency department attendance towards the end of life: a systematic review.

Background: Emergency department (ED) attendance for older people towards the end of life is common and increasing, despite most preferring home-based care. We aimed to review the factors associated with older people's ED attendance towards the end of life. Methods: Systematic review using Medline, Embase, PsychINFO, CINAHL and Web of Science from inception to March 2017. Included studies quantitatively examined factors associated with ED attendance for people aged ≥65 years within the last year of life. We assessed study quality using the QualSyst tool and determined evidence strength based on quality, quantity and consistency. We narratively synthesized the quantitative findings. Results: Of 3824 publications identified, 21 were included, combining data from 1 565 187 participants. 17/21 studies were from the USA and 19/21 used routinely collected data. We identified 47 factors and 21 were included in the final model. We found high strength evidence for associations between ED attendance and palliative/hospice care (adjusted effect estimate range: 0.1-0.94); non-white ethnicity (1.03-2.16); male gender (1.04-1.83, except 0.70 in one sub-sample) and rural areas (0.98-1.79). The final model included socio-demographic, illness and service factors, with largest effect sizes for service factors. Conclusions: In this synthesis, receiving palliative care was associated with lower ED attendance in the last year of life for older adults. This has implications for service models for older people nearing the end of life. However, there is limited evidence from European countries and none from low or middle-income countries, which warrants further research.

The impact of population ageing on end-of-life care in Scotland: projections of place of death and recommendations for future service provision.

BACKGROUND: Global annual deaths are rising. It is essential to examine where future deaths may occur to facilitate decisions regarding future service provision and resource allocation. AIMS: To project where people will die from 2017 to 2040 in an ageing country with advanced integrated palliative care, and to prioritise recommendations based on these trends. METHODS: Population-based trend analysis of place of death for people that died in Scotland (2004-2016) and projections using simple linear modelling (2017-2040); Transparent Expert Consultation to prioritise recommendations in response to projections. RESULTS: Deaths are projected to increase by 15.9% from 56,728 in 2016 (32.8% aged 85+ years) to 65,757 deaths in 2040 (45% aged 85+ years). Between 2004 and 2016, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (19.8-23.4% and 14.5-18.8%), while the proportion of hospital deaths declined (58.0-50.1%). If current trends continue, the numbers of deaths at home and in care homes will increase, and two-thirds will die outside hospital by 2040. To sustain current trends, priorities include: 1) to increase and upskill a community health and social care workforce through education, training and valuing of care work; 2) to build community care capacity through informal carer support and community engagement; 3) to stimulate a realistic public debate on death, dying and sustainable funding. CONCLUSION: To sustain current trends, health and social care provision in the community needs to grow to support nearly 60% more people at the end-of-life by 2040; otherwise hospital deaths will increase.

What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.

BACKGROUND: Population ageing represents a global challenge for future end-of-life care. Given new trends in place of death, it is vital to examine where the rising number of deaths will occur in future years and implications for health and social care. AIM: To project where people will die from 2015 to 2040 across all care settings in England and Wales. DESIGN: Population-based trend analysis and projections using simple linear modelling. Age- and gender-specific proportions of deaths in hospital, care home, home, hospice and 'other' were applied to numbers of expected future deaths. Setting/population: All deaths (2004-2014) from death registration data and predicted deaths (2015-2040) from official population forecasts in England and Wales. RESULTS: Annual deaths are projected to increase from 501,424 in 2014 (38.8% aged 85 years and over) to 635,814 in 2040 (53.6% aged 85 years and over). Between 2004 and 2014, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (18.3%-22.9% and 16.7%- 21.2%) while hospital deaths declined (57.9%-48.1%). If current trends continue, numbers of deaths in care homes and homes will increase by 108.1% and 88.6%, with care home the most common place of death by 2040. If care home capacity does not expand and additional deaths occur in hospital, hospital deaths will start rising by 2023. CONCLUSION: To sustain current trends, end-of-life care provision in care homes and the community needs to double by 2040. An infrastructure across care settings that supports rising annual deaths is urgently needed; otherwise, hospital deaths will increase.

Sarcopenia and frailty in chronic respiratory disease.

Sarcopenia and frailty are geriatric syndromes characterized by multisystem decline, which are related to and reflected by markers of skeletal muscle dysfunction. In older people, sarcopenia and frailty have been used for risk stratification, to predict adverse outcomes and to prompt intervention aimed at preventing decline in those at greatest risk. In this review, we examine sarcopenia and frailty in the context of chronic respiratory disease, providing an overview of the common assessments tools and studies to date in the field. We contrast assessments of sarcopenia, which consider muscle mass and function, with assessments of frailty, which often additionally consider social, cognitive and psychological domains. Frailty is emerging as an important syndrome in respiratory disease, being strongly associated with poor outcome. We also unpick the relationship between sarcopenia, frailty and skeletal muscle dysfunction in chronic respiratory disease and reveal these as interlinked but distinct clinical phenotypes. Suggested areas for future work include the application of sarcopenia and frailty models to restrictive diseases and population-based samples, prospective prognostic assessments of sarcopenia and frailty in relation to common multidimensional indices, plus the investigation of exercise, nutritional and pharmacological strategies to prevent or treat sarcopenia and frailty in chronic respiratory disease.

Measures to assess commonly experienced symptoms for people with dementia in long-term care settings: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: High symptom burden is common in long-term care residents with dementia and results in distress and behavioral challenges if undetected. Physicians may have limited time to regularly examine all residents, particularly those unable to self-report, and may rely on reports from caregivers who are frequently in a good position to detect symptoms quickly. We aimed to identify proxy-completed assessment measures of symptoms experienced by people with dementia, and critically appraise the psychometric properties and applicability for use in long-term care settings by caregivers. METHODS: We searched Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL and ASSIA from inception to 23 June 2015, supplemented by citation and reference searches. The search strategy used a combination of terms: dementia OR long-term care AND assessment AND symptoms (e.g. pain). Studies were included if they evaluated psychometric properties of proxy-completed symptom assessment measures for people with dementia in any setting or those of mixed cognitive abilities residing in long-term care settings. Measures were included if they did not require clinical training, and used proxy-observed behaviors to support assessment in verbally compromised people with dementia. Data were extracted on study setting and sample, measurement properties and psychometric properties. Measures were independently evaluated by two investigators using quality criteria for measurement properties, and evaluated for clinical applicability in long-term settings. RESULTS: Of the 19,942 studies identified, 40 studies evaluating 32 measures assessing pain (n = 12), oral health (n = 2), multiple neuropsychiatric symptoms (n = 2), depression (n = 8), anxiety (n = 2), psychological wellbeing (n = 4), and discomfort (n = 2) were included. The majority of studies (31/40) were conducted in long-term care settings although none of the neuropsychiatric or anxiety measures were validated in this setting. The pain assessments, PAINAD and PACSLAC had the strongest psychometric evidence. The oral health, discomfort, and three psychological wellbeing measures were validated in this setting but require further psychometric evaluation. Depression measures were poor at detecting depression in this population. All measures require further investigation into agreement, responsiveness and interpretability. CONCLUSIONS: Measures for pain are best developed for this population and setting. All other measures require further validation. A multi-symptom measure to support comprehensive assessment and monitoring in this population is required.

Developing a model of short-term integrated palliative and supportive care for frail older people in community settings: perspectives of older people, carers and other key stakeholders.

BACKGROUND: understanding how best to provide palliative care for frail older people with non-malignant conditions is an international priority. We aimed to develop a community-based episodic model of short-term integrated palliative and supportive care (SIPS) based on the views of service users and other key stakeholders in the United Kingdom. METHOD: transparent expert consultations with health professionals, voluntary sector and carer representatives including a consensus survey; and focus groups with older people and carers were used to generate recommendations for the SIPS model. Discussions focused on three key components of the model: potential benefit of SIPS, timing of delivery and processes of integrated working between specialist palliative care and generalist practitioners. Content and descriptive analysis was employed and findings were integrated across the data sources. FINDINGS: we conducted two expert consultations (n = 63), a consensus survey (n = 42) and three focus groups (n = 17). Potential benefits of SIPS included holistic assessment, opportunity for end of life discussion, symptom management and carer reassurance. Older people and carers advocated early access to SIPS, while other stakeholders proposed delivery based on complex symptom burden. A priority for integrated working was the assignment of a key worker to co-ordinate care, but the assignment criteria remain uncertain. INTERPRETATION: key stakeholders agree that a model of SIPS for frail older people with non-malignant conditions has potential benefits within community settings, but differ in opinion on the optimal timing and indications for this service. Our findings highlight the importance of consulting all key stakeholders in model development prior to feasibility evaluation.

Provision of palliative and end-of-life care in UK care homes during the COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed methods observational study with implications for policy.

Introduction: Little consideration has been given to how the provision of palliative and end-of-life care in care homes was affected by COVID-19. The aims of this study were to: (i) investigate the response of UK care homes in meeting the rapidly increasing need for palliative and end-of-life care during the COVID-19 pandemic and (ii) propose policy recommendations for strengthening the provision of palliative and end-of-life care within care homes. Materials and methods: A mixed methods observational study was conducted, which incorporated (i) an online cross-sectional survey of UK care homes and (ii) qualitative interviews with care home practitioners. Participants for the survey were recruited between April and September 2021. Survey participants indicating availability to participate in an interview were recruited using a purposive sampling approach between June and October 2021. Data were integrated through analytic triangulation in which we sought areas of convergence, divergence, and complementarity. Results: There were 107 responses to the survey and 27 interviews. We found that (i) relationship-centered care is crucial to high-quality palliative and end-of-life care within care homes, but this was disrupted during the pandemic. (ii) Care homes' ability to maintain high-quality relationship-centered care required key "pillars" being in place: integration with external healthcare systems, digital inclusion, and a supported workforce. Inequities within the care home sector meant that in some services these pillars were compromised, and relationship-centered care suffered. (iii) The provision of relationship-centered care was undermined by care home staff feeling that their efforts and expertise in delivering palliative and end-of-life care often went unrecognized/undervalued. Conclusion: Relationship-centered care is a key component of high-quality palliative and end-of-life care in care homes, but this was disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. We identify key policy priorities to equip care homes with the resources, capacity, and expertise needed to deliver palliative and end-of-life care: (i) integration within health and social care systems, (ii) digital inclusivity, (iii) workforce development, (iv) support for care home managers, and (v) addressing (dis)parities of esteem. These policy recommendations inform, extend, and align with policies and initiatives within the UK and internationally.

Formal and Informal Costs of Care for People With Dementia Who Experience a Transition to Hospital at the End of Life: A Secondary Data Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To explore formal and informal care costs in the last 3 months of life for people with dementia, and to evaluate the association between transitions to hospital and usual place of care with costs. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study using pooled data from 3 mortality follow-back surveys. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: People who died with dementia. METHODS: The Client Service Receipt Inventory survey was used to derive formal (health, social) and informal care costs in the last 3 months of life. Generalized linear models were used to explore the association between transitions to hospital and usual place of care with formal and informal care costs. RESULTS: A total of 146 people who died with dementia were included. The mean age was 88.1 years (SD 6.0), and 98 (67.1%) were female. The usual place of care was care home for 85 (58.2%). Sixty-five individuals (44.5%) died in a care home, and 85 (58.2%) experienced a transition to hospital in the last 3 months. The mean total costs of care in the last 3 months of life were £31,224.7 (SD 23,536.6). People with a transition to hospital had higher total costs (£33,239.2, 95% CI 28,301.8-39,037.8) than people without transition (£21,522.0, 95% CI 17,784.0-26,045.8), mainly explained by hospital costs. People whose usual place of care was care homes had lower total costs (£23,801.3, 95% CI 20,172.0-28,083.6) compared to home (£34,331.4, 95% CI 27,824.7-42,359.5), mainly explained by lower informal care costs. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Total care costs are high among people dying with dementia, and informal care costs represent an important component of end-of-life care costs. Transitions to hospital have a large impact on total costs; preventing these transitions might reduce costs from the health care perspective, but not from patients' and families' perspectives. Access to care homes could help reduce transitions to hospital as well as reduce formal and informal care costs.

Disability in Basic Activities of Daily Living Is Associated With Symptom Burden in Older People With Advanced Cancer or Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Secondary Data Analysis.

CONTEXT: Managing activities of daily living is important to people with advanced cancer or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Understanding disability in activities of daily living may inform service planning. OBJECTIVE: To identify the prevalence of disability in activities of daily living, associations and change over time, in older people with advanced cancer or COPD. METHODS: Secondary analysis of International Access, Rights and Empowerment (IARE) studies in adults aged ≥65 years with advanced disease in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and United States, using cross-sectional (IARE I & II) and longitudinal (IARE II, 3 timepoints over 6 months) data. Measures included disability in activities of daily living (Barthel Index), symptom severity (Palliative Outcome Scale), and assistive device use (self-reported). Logistic regression was used to identify relationships between disability and age, sex, living alone, diagnosis, and symptom burden; visual graphical analysis explores individual disability trajectories. RESULTS: One hundred fifty-nine participants were included (140 cancer, 19 COPD). Sixty-five percent had difficulty climbing stairs, 48% bathing, 39% dressing, and 36% mobilizing. Increased disability was independently associated with increased symptom burden (odds ratio, 1.08 [95% CI:1.02-1.15], P = 0.01) and walking unaided (z = 2.35, P = 0.02), but not with primary diagnosis (z = -0.47, P = 0.64). Disability generally increased over time but with wide interindividual variation. CONCLUSION: Disability in activities of daily living in advanced cancer or COPD is common, associated with increased symptom burden, and may be attenuated by use of assistive devices. Individual disability trajectories vary widely, with diverse disability profiles. Services should include rehabilitative interventions, guided by disability in individual activities of daily living.

How many people will need palliative care in Scotland by 2040? A mixed-method study of projected palliative care need and recommendations for service delivery.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate future palliative care need and complexity of need in Scotland, and to identify priorities for future service delivery. DESIGN: We estimated the prevalence of palliative care need by analysing the proportion of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses. We described linear projections up to 2040 using national death registry data and official mortality forecasts. An expert consultation and subsequent online consensus survey generated recommendations on meeting future palliative care need. SETTING: Scotland, population of 5.4 million. PARTICIPANTS: All decedents in Scotland over 11 years (2007 to 2017). The consultation had 34 participants; 24 completed the consensus survey. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Estimates of past and future palliative care need in Scotland from 2007 up to 2040. Multimorbidity was operationalised as two or more registered causes of death from different disease groups (cancer, organ failure, dementia, other). Consultation and survey data were analysed descriptively. RESULTS: We project that by 2040, the number of people requiring palliative care will increase by at least 14%; and by 20% if we factor in multimorbidity. The number of people dying from multiple diseases associated with different disease groups is projected to increase from 27% of all deaths in 2017 to 43% by 2040. To address increased need and complexity, experts prioritised sustained investment in a national digital platform, roll-out of integrated electronic health and social care records; and approaches that remain person-centred. CONCLUSIONS: By 2040 more people in Scotland are projected to die with palliative care needs, and the complexity of need will increase markedly. Service delivery models must adapt to serve growing demand and complexity associated with dying from multiple diseases from different disease groups. We need sustained investment in secure, accessible, integrated and person-centred health and social care digital systems, to improve care coordination and optimise palliative care for people across care settings.

Community-based short-term integrated palliative and supportive care reduces symptom distress for older people with chronic noncancer conditions compared with usual care: A randomised controlled single-blind mixed method trial.

BACKGROUND: Globally, a rising number of people live into advanced age and die with multimorbidity and frailty. Palliative care is advocated as a person-centred approach to reduce health-related suffering and promote quality of life. However, no evidence-based interventions exist to deliver community-based palliative care for this population. AIM: To evaluate the impact of the short-term integrated palliative and supportive care intervention for older people living with chronic noncancer conditions and frailty on clinical and economic outcomes and perceptions of care. DESIGN: Single-blind trial with random block assignment to usual care or the intervention and usual care. The intervention comprised integrated person-centred palliative care delivered by multidisciplinary palliative care teams working with general practitioners and community nurses. Main outcome was change in five key palliative care symptoms from baseline to 12-weeks. Data analysis used intention to treat and complete cases to examine the mean difference in change scores and effect size between the trial arms. Economic evaluation used cost-effectiveness planes and qualitative interviews explored perceptions of the intervention. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Four National Health Service general practices in England with recruitment of patients aged ≥75 years, with moderate to severe frailty, chronic noncancer condition(s) and ≥2 symptoms or concerns, and family caregivers when available. RESULTS: 50 patients were randomly assigned to receive usual care (n = 26, mean age 86.0 years) or the intervention and usual care (n = 24, mean age 85.3 years), and 26 caregivers (control n = 16, mean age 77.0 years; intervention n = 10, mean age 77.3 years). Participants lived at home (n = 48) or care home (n = 2). Complete case analysis (n = 48) on the main outcome showed reduced symptom distress between the intervention compared with usual care (mean difference -1.20, 95% confidence interval -2.37 to -0.027) and medium effect size (omega squared = 0.071). Symptom distress reduced with decreased costs from the intervention compared with usual care, demonstrating cost-effectiveness. Patient (n = 19) and caregiver (n = 9) interviews generated themes about the intervention of 'Little things make a big difference' with optimal management of symptoms and 'Care beyond medicines' of psychosocial support to accommodate decline and maintain independence. CONCLUSIONS: This palliative and supportive care intervention is an effective and cost-effective approach to reduce symptom distress for older people severely affected by chronic noncancer conditions. It is a clinically effective way to integrate specialist palliative care with primary and community care for older people with chronic conditions. Further research is indicated to examine its implementation more widely for people at home and in care homes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN 45837097 Tweetable abstract: Specialist palliative care integrated with district nurses and GPs is cost-effective to reduce symptom distress for older people severely affected by chronic conditions.

Common elements of service delivery models that optimise quality of life and health service use among older people with advanced progressive conditions: a tertiary systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Health and social care services worldwide need to support ageing populations to live well with advanced progressive conditions while adapting to functional decline and finitude. We aimed to identify and map common elements of effective geriatric and palliative care services and consider their scalability and generalisability to high, middle and low-income countries. METHODS: Tertiary systematic review (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CINAHL, Embase, January 2000-October 2019) of studies in geriatric or palliative care that demonstrated improved quality of life and/or health service use outcomes among older people with advanced progressive conditions. Using frameworks for health system analysis, service elements were identified. We used a staged, iterative process to develop a 'common components' logic model and consulted experts in geriatric or palliative care from high, middle and low-income countries on its scalability. RESULTS: 78 studies (59 geriatric and 19 palliative) spanning all WHO regions were included. Data were available from 17 739 participants. Nearly half the studies recruited patients with heart failure (n=36) and one-third recruited patients with mixed diagnoses (n=26). Common service elements (≥80% of studies) included collaborative working, ongoing assessment, active patient participation, patient/family education and patient self-management. Effective services incorporated patient engagement, patient goal-driven care and the centrality of patient needs. Stakeholders (n=20) emphasised that wider implementation of such services would require access to skilled, multidisciplinary teams with sufficient resource to meet patients' needs. Identified barriers to scalability included the political and societal will to invest in and prioritise palliative and geriatric care for older people, alongside geographical and socioeconomic factors. CONCLUSION: Our logic model combines elements of effective services to achieve optimal quality of life and health service use among older people with advanced progressive conditions. The model transcends current best practice in geriatric and palliative care and applies across the care continuum, from prevention of functional decline to end-of-life care. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020150252.

Supportive and palliative care for people with chronic respiratory disease and frailty.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Frailty is a multidimensional syndrome associated with increased risk of poor outcomes. It is estimated that at least one in five people with chronic respiratory disease is also living with frailty. In this review, we consider recent advances in how frailty can be recognized, and its associated impact on people with chronic respiratory disease. We then discuss advances in supportive and palliative care for those with both chronic respiratory disease and frailty. RECENT FINDINGS: The interconnectedness of chronic respiratory disease and frailty is being better understood. An increasing number of factors associated with frailty in respiratory disease have been identified, from increased symptom burden (e.g. breathlessness, fatigue) to increased exacerbations and higher mortality. These contribute to accumulating multidimensional losses in reserve, and unpredictable health. Recent advances in respiratory research, while not always with people with frailty, may inform supportive and palliative care to address frailty in chronic respiratory disease. These include rehabilitation interventions to strengthen reserves, advance care planning interventions to help manage unpredictable trajectories, and integrated models of care (e.g. incorporating respiratory, geriatric, and palliative care) to address multidimensional needs. SUMMARY: Recent evidence supporting the role of rehabilitation, advance care planning, and early palliative care, may be of benefit to people living with chronic respiratory disease and frailty. Models showing integration across multiple specialities and professionals may have the most potential to meet the multidimensional needs of this group. Future research should develop and test models of care that address frailty and/or explore the role of frailty in triggering integrated multidisciplinary input.