Modeling seizure self-prediction: an e-diary study.

PURPOSE: A subset of patients with epilepsy successfully self-predicted seizures in a paper diary study. We conducted an e-diary study to ensure that prediction precedes seizures, and to characterize the prodromal features and time windows that underlie self-prediction. METHODS: Subjects 18 or older with localization-related epilepsy (LRE) and ≥3 seizures per month maintained an e-diary, reporting a.m./p.m. data daily, including mood, premonitory symptoms, and all seizures. Self-prediction was rated by, "How likely are you to experience a seizure (time frame)?" Five choices ranged from almost certain (>95% chance) to very unlikely. Relative odds of seizure (odds ratio, OR) within time frames was examined using Poisson models with log normal random effects to adjust for multiple observations. KEY FINDINGS: Nineteen subjects reported 244 eligible seizures. OR for prediction choices within 6 h was as high as 9.31 (CI 1.92-45.23) for "almost certain." Prediction was most robust within 6 h of diary entry, and remained significant up to 12 h. For nine best predictors, average sensitivity was 50%. Older age contributed to successful self-prediction, and self-prediction appeared to be driven by mood and premonitory symptoms. In multivariate modeling of seizure occurrence, self-prediction (2.84; CI 1.68-4.81), favorable change in mood (0.82; CI 0.67-0.99), and number of premonitory symptoms (1.11; CI 1.00-1.24) were significant. SIGNIFICANCE: Some persons with epilepsy can self-predict seizures. In these individuals, the odds of a seizure following a positive prediction are high. Predictions were robust, not attributable to recall bias, and were related to self-awareness of mood and premonitory features. The 6-h prediction window is suitable for the development of preemptive therapy.

An international pilot study of an Internet-based platform to facilitate clinical research in epilepsy: the EpiNet project.

PURPOSE: We created an epilepsy patient database that can be accessed via the Internet by neurologists from anywhere in the world. The database was designed to enroll and follow large cohorts of patients with specific epilepsy syndromes, and to facilitate recruitment of patients for investigator-initiated clinical trials. METHODS: The EpiNet database records physician-derived information regarding seizure type and frequency, epilepsy syndrome, etiology, drug history, and investigations. It can be accessed from any country by approved investigators via a secure, password-protected Website. All data are encrypted. The database is for both research and clinical purposes. Investigators were invited to register any patient with epilepsy, but were particularly encouraged to register patients when uncertain of the optimal management. Participation required approval from investigators' ethics committees and institutional review boards, and all patients or their caregiver provided written informed consent. Patients were not enrolled in clinical trials in this pilot study. KEY FINDINGS: The international pilot study recruited patients from September 2010 to November 2011. Sixty-four investigators or research assistants from 25 centers in 13 countries registered 1,050 patients. Patients with a wide range of epilepsy syndromes and etiologies were registered. Patients' ages ranged from 2 weeks to 90 years. SIGNIFICANCE: The Website was successfully used by doctors working in different health systems. The pilot study confirmed that this low-cost, collaborative approach to research has great potential. Large, multicenter cohort studies will commence in 2012, and randomized clinical trials are being planned. All epileptologists are invited to join this project.

Clinical features of the pre-ictal state: mood changes and premonitory symptoms.

Identifying the pre-ictal state clinically would improve our understanding of seizure onset and suggest opportunities for new treatments. In our previous paper-diary study, increased stress and less sleep predicted seizures. Utilizing electronic diaries, we expanded this investigation. Variables were identified by their association with subsequent seizure using logit-normal random effects models fit by maximum likelihood. Nineteen subjects with localization-related epilepsy kept e-diaries for 12-14 weeks and reported 244 eligible seizures. In univariate models, several mood items and ten premonitory features were associated with increased odds of seizure over 12h. In multivariate models, a 10-point improvement in total mood decreased seizure risk by 25% (OR 0.75, CI 0.61-0.91, p=004) while each additional significant premonitory feature increased seizure risk by nearly 25% (OR 1.24, CI 1.13-1.35, p<001) over 12h. Pre-ictal changes in mood and premonitory features may predict seizure occurrence and suggest a role for behavioral intervention and pre-emptive therapy in epilepsy.

Reduction in perceived stress as a migraine trigger: testing the "let-down headache" hypothesis.

OBJECTIVE: To test whether level of perceived stress and reductions in levels of perceived stress (i.e., "let-down") are associated with the onset of migraine attacks in persons with migraine. METHODS: Patients with migraine from a tertiary headache center were invited to participate in a 3-month electronic diary study. Participants entered data daily regarding migraine attack experience, subjective stress ratings, and other data. Stress was assessed using 2 measures: the Perceived Stress Scale and the Self-Reported Stress Scale. Logit-normal, random-effects models were used to estimate the odds ratio for migraine occurrence as a function of level of stress over several time frames. RESULTS: Of 22 enrolled participants, 17 (median age 43.8 years) completed >30 days of diaries, yielding 2,011 diary entries including 110 eligible migraine attacks (median 5 attacks per person). Level of stress was not generally associated with migraine occurrence. However, decline in stress from one evening diary to the next was associated with increased migraine onset over the subsequent 6, 12, and 18 hours, with odds ratios ranging from 1.5 to 1.9 (all p values < 0.05) for the Perceived Stress Scale. Decline in stress was associated with migraine onset after controlling for level of stress for all time points. Findings were similar using the Self-Reported Stress Scale. CONCLUSIONS: Reduction in stress from one day to the next is associated with migraine onset the next day. Decline in stress may be a marker for an impending migraine attack and may create opportunities for preemptive pharmacologic or behavioral interventions.

Neuropsychiatric predictors of return to work in HIV/AIDS.

This study followed 118 HIV+ individuals who had taken steps to return to work to determine facilitators or barriers in returning to work. Over the two-year study period, 52% of the participants obtained employment. Memory function served as the most potent predictor of obtaining employment. Persons who were younger, did not have a diagnosis of AIDS and who had shorter periods of unemployment prior to entering the study also had better chances of finding employment during the study. After finding employment, participants reported lower levels of depression as well, an apparent result of their obtaining employment. These findings indicate that memory is a key neuropsychiatric variable that is perhaps most relevant to HIV+ persons' quest to return to work.

The life priorities of HIV-seropositive injection drug users: findings from a community-based sample.

Using cross-sectional data from an ethnically diverse sample of 161 HIV-seropositive injection drug users (IDUs), we investigated (1) how HIV-positive IDUs rank their life priorities, (2) whether HIV prioritization (defined as whether or not ranking HIV as a top priority) is associated with risk behaviors, and (3) potential correlates of HIV prioritization. HIV was ranked as the most important priority by 37% of the participants. Among those who did not rank HIV as the top priority, housing, money, and safety from violence were particularly salient priorities. Those who gave the highest priority to HIV were less likely to have unprotected vaginal sex with primary partners who were HIV negative or of unknown serostatus, were less likely to split drugs with a used syringe, and used fewer numbers of injection drugs. HIV prioritization, however, was not associated with sex risk behaviors with nonprimary partners and HIV-positive primary partners. Significant correlates of HIV prioritization included age and the use of a heroin/stimulant mixture. These findings provide a number of important implications for HIV prevention intervention research for HIV-positive IDUs.