The role of spatial structure in at-risk metapopulation recoveries.

Metapopulations are often managed as a single contiguous population despite the spatial structure underlying their local and regional dynamics. Disturbances from human activities can also be spatially structured with mortality impacts concentrated to just a few local populations among the aggregate. Scale transitions between local and regional processes can generate emergent properties whereby the whole system can fail to recover as quickly as expected for an equivalent single population. Here, we draw on theory and empirical case studies to ask: what is the consequence of spatially structured ecological and disturbance processes on metapopulation recoveries? We suggest that exploring this question could help address knowledge gaps for managing metapopulations including: Why do some metapopulations recover quickly while others remain collapsed? And, what risks are unaccounted for when metapopulations are managed at aggregate scales? First, we used model simulations to examine how scale transitions among ecological and disturbance conditions interact to generate emergent metapopulation recovery outcomes. In general, we found that the spatial structure of disturbance was a strong determinant of recovery outcomes. Specifically, disturbances that unevenly impacted local populations consistently generated the slowest recoveries and highest conservation risks. Ecological conditions that dampened metapopulation recoveries included low dispersal, variable local demography, sparsely connected habitat networks, and spatially and temporally correlated stochastic processes. Second, we illustrate the unexpected challenges of managing metapopulations by examining the recoveries of three USA federally listed endangered species: Florida Everglade snail kites, California and Alaska sea otters, and Snake River Chinook salmon. Overall, our results show the pivotal role of spatial structure in metapopulation recoveries whereby the interplay between local and regional processes shapes the resilience of the whole system. With this understanding, we provide guidelines for resource managers tasked with conserving and managing metapopulations and identify opportunities for research to support the application of metapopulation theory to real-world challenges.

Costs of reproduction can explain the correlated evolution of semelparity and egg size: theory and a test with salmon.

Species' life history traits, including maturation age, number of reproductive bouts, offspring size and number, reflect adaptations to diverse biotic and abiotic selection pressures. A striking example of divergent life histories is the evolution of either iteroparity (breeding multiple times) or semelparity (breed once and die). We analysed published data on salmonid fishes and found that semelparous species produce larger eggs, that egg size and number increase with salmonid body size among populations and species and that migratory behaviour and parity interact. We developed three hypotheses that might explain the patterns in our data and evaluated them in a stage-structured modelling framework accounting for different growth and survival scenarios. Our models predict the observation of small eggs in iteroparous species when egg size is costly to maternal survival or egg number is constrained. By exploring trait co-variation in salmonids, we generate new hypotheses for the evolution of trade-offs among life history traits.

Emergent stability in a large, free-flowing watershed.

While it is widely recognized that financial stock portfolios can be stabilized through diverse investments, it is also possible that certain habitats can function as natural portfolios that stabilize ecosystem processes. Here we propose and examine the hypothesis that free-flowing river networks act as such portfolios and confer stability through their integration of upstream geological, hydrological, and biological diversity. We compiled a spatially (142 sites) and temporally (1980-present) extensive data set on fisheries, water flows, and temperatures, from sites within one of the largest watersheds in the world that remains without dams on its mainstem, the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada. We found that larger catchments had more stable fisheries catches, water flows, and water temperatures than smaller catchments. These data provide evidence that free-flowing river networks function as hierarchically nested portfolios with stability as an emergent property. Thus, free-flowing river networks can represent a natural system for buffering variation and extreme events.

A low upper limit on the subsurface rise speed of solar active regions.

Magnetic field emerges at the surface of the Sun as sunspots and active regions. This process generates a poloidal magnetic field from a rising toroidal flux tube; it is a crucial but poorly understood aspect of the solar dynamo. The emergence of magnetic field is also important because it is a key driver of solar activity. We show that measurements of horizontal flows at the solar surface around emerging active regions, in combination with numerical simulations of solar magnetoconvection, can constrain the subsurface rise speed of emerging magnetic flux. The observed flows imply that the rise speed of the magnetic field is no larger than 150 m/s at a depth of 20 Mm, that is, well below the prediction of the (standard) thin flux tube model but in the range expected for convective velocities at this depth. We conclude that convective flows control the dynamics of rising flux tubes in the upper layers of the Sun and cannot be neglected in models of flux emergence.

Burst swimming in areas of high flow: delayed consequences of anaerobiosis in wild adult sockeye salmon.

Wild riverine fishes are known to rely on burst swimming to traverse hydraulically challenging reaches, and yet there has been little investigation as to whether swimming anaerobically in areas of high flow can lead to delayed mortality. Using acoustic accelerometer transmitters, we estimated the anaerobic activity of anadromous adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in the tailrace of a diversion dam in British Columbia, Canada, and its effects on the remaining 50 km of their freshwater spawning migration. Consistent with our hypothesis, migrants that elicited burst swimming behaviors in high flows were more likely to succumb to mortality following dam passage. Females swam with more anaerobic effort compared to males, providing a mechanism for the female-biased migration mortality observed in this watershed. Alterations to dam operations prevented the release of hypolimnetic water from an upstream lake, exposing some migrants to supraoptimal, near-lethal water temperatures (i.e., 24°C) that inhibited their ability to locate, enter, and ascend a vertical-slot fishway. Findings from this study have shown delayed post-dam passage survival consequences of high-flow-induced burst swimming in sockeye salmon. We highlight the need for studies to investigate whether dams can impose other carryover effects on wild aquatic animals.

Maternal and environmental influences on egg size and juvenile life-history traits in Pacific salmon.

Life-history traits such as fecundity and offspring size are shaped by investment trade-offs faced by mothers and mediated by environmental conditions. We use a 21-year time series for three populations of wild sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) to test predictions for such trade-offs and responses to conditions faced by females during migration, and offspring during incubation. In years when their 1100 km upstream migration was challenged by high water discharges, females that reached spawning streams had invested less in gonads by producing smaller but not fewer eggs. These smaller eggs produced lighter juveniles, and this effect was further amplified in years when the incubation water was warm. This latter result suggests that there should be selection for larger eggs to compensate in populations that consistently experience warm incubation temperatures. A comparison among 16 populations, with matching migration and rearing environments but different incubation environments (i.e., separate spawning streams), confirmed this prediction; smaller females produced larger eggs for their size in warmer creeks. Taken together, these results reveal how maternal phenotype and environmental conditions can shape patterns of reproductive investment and consequently juvenile fitness-related traits within and among populations.

Comment on "Detection of emerging sunspot regions in the solar interior".

Ilonidis et al. (Reports, 19 August 2011, p. 993) report acoustic travel-time decreases associated with emerging sunspot regions before their appearance on the solar surface. An independent analysis using helioseismic holography does not confirm these travel-time anomalies for the four regions illustrated by Ilonidis et al. This negative finding is consistent with expectations based on current emerging flux models.