Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19.

Governments around the world must rapidly mobilize and make difficult policy decisions to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Because deaths have been concentrated at older ages, we highlight the important role of demography, particularly, how the age structure of a population may help explain differences in fatality rates across countries and how transmission unfolds. We examine the role of age structure in deaths thus far in Italy and South Korea and illustrate how the pandemic could unfold in populations with similar population sizes but different age structures, showing a dramatically higher burden of mortality in countries with older versus younger populations. This powerful interaction of demography and current age-specific mortality for COVID-19 suggests that social distancing and other policies to slow transmission should consider the age composition of local and national contexts as well as intergenerational interactions. We also call for countries to provide case and fatality data disaggregated by age and sex to improve real-time targeted forecasting of hospitalization and critical care needs.

Genes for Good: Engaging the Public in Genetics Research via Social Media.

The Genes for Good study uses social media to engage a large, diverse participant pool in genetics research and education. Health history and daily tracking surveys are administered through a Facebook application, and participants who complete a minimum number of surveys are mailed a saliva sample kit ("spit kit") to collect DNA for genotyping. As of March 2019, we engaged >80,000 individuals, sent spit kits to >32,000 individuals who met minimum participation requirements, and collected >27,000 spit kits. Participants come from all 50 states and include a diversity of ancestral backgrounds. Rates of important chronic health indicators are consistent with those estimated for the general U.S. population using more traditional study designs. However, our sample is younger and contains a greater percentage of females than the general population. As one means of verifying data quality, we have replicated genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for exemplar traits, such as asthma, diabetes, body mass index (BMI), and pigmentation. The flexible framework of the web application makes it relatively simple to add new questionnaires and for other researchers to collaborate. We anticipate that the study sample will continue to grow and that future analyses may further capitalize on the strengths of the longitudinal data in combination with genetic information.

Meta-analysis of up to 622,409 individuals identifies 40 novel smoking behaviour associated genetic loci.

Smoking is a major heritable and modifiable risk factor for many diseases, including cancer, common respiratory disorders and cardiovascular diseases. Fourteen genetic loci have previously been associated with smoking behaviour-related traits. We tested up to 235,116 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) on the exome-array for association with smoking initiation, cigarettes per day, pack-years, and smoking cessation in a fixed effects meta-analysis of up to 61 studies (up to 346,813 participants). In a subset of 112,811 participants, a further one million SNVs were also genotyped and tested for association with the four smoking behaviour traits. SNV-trait associations with P < 5 × 10-8 in either analysis were taken forward for replication in up to 275,596 independent participants from UK Biobank. Lastly, a meta-analysis of the discovery and replication studies was performed. Sixteen SNVs were associated with at least one of the smoking behaviour traits (P < 5 × 10-8) in the discovery samples. Ten novel SNVs, including rs12616219 near TMEM182, were followed-up and five of them (rs462779 in REV3L, rs12780116 in CNNM2, rs1190736 in GPR101, rs11539157 in PJA1, and rs12616219 near TMEM182) replicated at a Bonferroni significance threshold (P < 4.5 × 10-3) with consistent direction of effect. A further 35 SNVs were associated with smoking behaviour traits in the discovery plus replication meta-analysis (up to 622,409 participants) including a rare SNV, rs150493199, in CCDC141 and two low-frequency SNVs in CEP350 and HDGFRP2. Functional follow-up implied that decreased expression of REV3L may lower the probability of smoking initiation. The novel loci will facilitate understanding the genetic aetiology of smoking behaviour and may lead to the identification of potential drug targets for smoking prevention and/or cessation.

Forecasting spatial, socioeconomic and demographic variation in COVID-19 health care demand in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 poses one of the most profound public health crises for a hundred years. As of mid-May 2020, across the world, almost 300,000 deaths and over 4 million confirmed cases were registered. Reaching over 30,000 deaths by early May, the UK had the highest number of recorded deaths in Europe, second in the world only to the USA. Hospitalization and death from COVID-19 have been linked to demographic and socioeconomic variation. Since this varies strongly by location, there is an urgent need to analyse the mismatch between health care demand and supply at the local level. As lockdown measures ease, reinfection may vary by area, necessitating a real-time tool for local and regional authorities to anticipate demand. METHODS: Combining census estimates and hospital capacity data from ONS and NHS at the Administrative Region, Ceremonial County (CC), Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) and Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) level from England and Wales, we calculate the number of individuals at risk of COVID-19 hospitalization. Combining multiple sources, we produce geospatial risk maps on an online dashboard that dynamically illustrate how the pre-crisis health system capacity matches local variations in hospitalization risk related to age, social deprivation, population density and ethnicity, also adjusting for the overall infection rate and hospital capacity. RESULTS: By providing fine-grained estimates of expected hospitalization, we identify areas that face higher disproportionate health care burdens due to COVID-19, with respect to pre-crisis levels of hospital bed capacity. Including additional risks beyond age-composition of the area such as social deprivation, race/ethnic composition and population density offers a further nuanced identification of areas with disproportionate health care demands. CONCLUSIONS: Areas face disproportionate risks for COVID-19 hospitalization pressures due to their socioeconomic differences and the demographic composition of their populations. Our flexible online dashboard allows policy-makers and health officials to monitor and evaluate potential health care demand at a granular level as the infection rate and hospital capacity changes throughout the course of this pandemic. This agile knowledge is invaluable to tackle the enormous logistical challenges to re-allocate resources and target susceptible areas for aggressive testing and tracing to mitigate transmission.

Transcriptomic Analysis of Yersinia enterocolitica Biovar 1B Infecting Murine Macrophages Reveals New Mechanisms of Extracellular and Intracellular Survival.

Yersinia enterocolitica is typically considered an extracellular pathogen; however, during the course of an infection, a significant number of bacteria are stably maintained within host cell vacuoles. Little is known about this population and the role it plays during an infection. To address this question and to elucidate the spatially and temporally dynamic gene expression patterns of Y. enterocolitica biovar 1B through the course of an in vitro infection, transcriptome sequencing and differential gene expression analysis of bacteria infecting murine macrophage cells were performed under four distinct conditions. Bacteria were first grown in a nutrient-rich medium at 26 °C to establish a baseline of gene expression that is unrelated to infection. The transcriptomes of these bacteria were then compared to bacteria grown in a conditioned cell culture medium at 37 °C to identify genes that were differentially expressed in response to the increased temperature and medium but not in response to host cells. Infections were then performed, and the transcriptomes of bacteria found on the extracellular surface and intracellular compartments were analyzed individually. The upregulated genes revealed potential roles for a variety of systems in promoting intracellular virulence, including the Ysa type III secretion system, the Yts2 type II secretion system, and the Tad pilus. It was further determined that mutants of each of these systems had decreased virulence while infecting macrophages. Overall, these results reveal the complete set of genes expressed by Y. enterocolitica in response to infection and provide the groundwork for future virulence studies.

Enriching pathogen transcripts from infected samples: a capture-based approach to enhanced host-pathogen RNA sequencing.

To fully understand the interactions of a pathogen with its host, it is necessary to analyze the RNA transcripts of both the host and pathogen throughout the course of an infection. Although this can be accomplished relatively easily on the host side, the analysis of pathogen transcripts is complicated by the overwhelming amount of host RNA isolated from an infected sample. Even with the read depth provided by second-generation sequencing, it is extremely difficult to get enough pathogen reads for an effective gene-level analysis. In this study, we describe a novel capture-based technique and device that considerably enriches for pathogen transcripts from infected samples. This versatile method can, in principle, enrich for any pathogen in any infected sample. To test the technique's efficacy, we performed time course tissue culture infections using Rift Valley fever virus and Francisella tularensis. At each time point, RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) was performed and the results of the treated samples were compared with untreated controls. The capture of pathogen transcripts, in all cases, led to more than an order of magnitude enrichment of pathogen reads, greatly increasing the number of genes hit, the coverage of those genes, and the depth at which each transcript was sequenced.

Genome-wide analysis identifies genetic effects on reproductive success and ongoing natural selection at the FADS locus.

Identifying genetic determinants of reproductive success may highlight mechanisms underlying fertility and identify alleles under present-day selection. Using data in 785,604 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 43 genomic loci associated with either number of children ever born (NEB) or childlessness. These loci span diverse aspects of reproductive biology, including puberty timing, age at first birth, sex hormone regulation, endometriosis and age at menopause. Missense variants in ARHGAP27 were associated with higher NEB but shorter reproductive lifespan, suggesting a trade-off at this locus between reproductive ageing and intensity. Other genes implicated by coding variants include PIK3IP1, ZFP82 and LRP4, and our results suggest a new role for the melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) in reproductive biology. As NEB is one component of evolutionary fitness, our identified associations indicate loci under present-day natural selection. Integration with data from historical selection scans highlighted an allele in the FADS1/2 gene locus that has been under selection for thousands of years and remains so today. Collectively, our findings demonstrate that a broad range of biological mechanisms contribute to reproductive success.

Gender differences in sleep disruption during COVID-19: cross-sectional analyses from two UK nationally representative surveys.

OBJECTIVE: COVID-19 related measures have impacted sleep on a global level. We examine changes in sleep problems and duration focusing on gender differentials. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analyses using two nationally representative surveys collected during the first and second month after the 2020 lockdown in the UK. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants (age 17 years and above) from the first wave of the Understanding Society COVID-19 Study are linked to the most recent wave before the pandemic completed during 2018 and 2019 (n=14 073). COVID-19 Survey Data was collected from 2 to 31 May 2020 (n=8547) with participants drawn from five nationally representative cohort studies in the UK. ANALYSIS: We conducted bivariate analyses to examine gender gaps in change in sleep problems and change in sleep duration overall and by other predictors. A series of multivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models were estimated to explore predictors of change in sleep problems and change in sleep time. RESULTS: People in the UK on average experienced an increase in sleep loss during the first 4 weeks of the lockdown (mean=0.13, SD=0.9). Women report more sleep loss than men (coefficient=0.15, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.19). Daily sleep duration on average increased by ten minutes (mean=-0.16, SD=1.11), with men gaining eight more minutes of sleep per day than women (coefficient=0.13, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.17). CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 related measures amplified traditional gender roles. Men's sleep was more affected by changes in their financial situation and employment status related to the crisis, with women more influenced by their emotional reaction to the pandemic, feeling anxious and spending more time on family duties such as home schooling, unpaid domestic duties, nurturing and caregiving. Based on our findings, we provide policy advice of early, clear and better employment protection coverage of self-employed and precarious workers and employer recognition for parents.

Factors affecting adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 infections in the first year of the pandemic in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including wearing face covering/masks, social distancing and working from home, have been introduced to control SARS-CoV-2 infections. We provide individual-level empirical evidence of whether adherence reduces infections. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The COVID-19 Infection Study (CIS) was used from 10 May 2020 to 2 February 2021 with 409 009 COVID-19 nose and throat swab tests nested in 72 866 households for 100 138 individuals in the labour force aged 18-64. ANALYSIS: ORs for a positive COVID-19 test were calculated using multilevel logistic regression models, stratified by sex and time, by an index of autonomy to abide by NPIs, adjusted for various socioeconomic and behavioural covariates. RESULTS: Inability to comply with NPIs predicted higher infections when individuals reported not wearing a face covering outside. The main effect for inability to comply was OR 0.79 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.92), for wearing face covering/masks was OR 0.29 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.56) and the interaction term being OR 1.25 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.46). The youngest age groups had a significantly higher risk of infection (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.82) as did women in larger households (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.06). Effects varied over time with autonomy to follow NPIs only significant in the pre-second lockdown May-November 2020 period. Wearing a face covering outside was a significant predictor of a lower chance of infection before mid-December 2020 when a stricter second lockdown was implemented (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.73). CONCLUSION: The protective effect of wearing a face covering/mask was the strongest for those who were the most unable to comply with NPIs. Higher infection rates were in younger groups and women in large households. Wearing a face covering or mask outside the home consistently and significantly predicted lower infection before the 2020 Christmas period and among women.

Gene-environment dependencies lead to collider bias in models with polygenic scores.

The application of polygenic scores has transformed our ability to investigate whether and how genetic and environmental factors jointly contribute to the variation of complex traits. Modelling the complex interplay between genes and environment, however, raises serious methodological challenges. Here we illustrate the largely unrecognised impact of gene-environment dependencies on the identification of the effects of genes and their variation across environments. We show that controlling for heritable covariates in regression models that include polygenic scores as independent variables introduces endogenous selection bias when one or more of these covariates depends on unmeasured factors that also affect the outcome. This results in the problem of conditioning on a collider, which in turn leads to spurious associations and effect sizes. Using graphical and simulation methods we demonstrate that the degree of bias depends on the strength of the gene-covariate correlation and of hidden heterogeneity linking covariates with outcomes, regardless of whether the main analytic focus is mediation, confounding, or gene × covariate (commonly gene × environment) interactions. We offer potential solutions, highlighting the importance of causal inference. We also urge further caution when fitting and interpreting models with polygenic scores and non-exogenous environments or phenotypes and demonstrate how spurious associations are likely to arise, advancing our understanding of such results.

Identification of 371 genetic variants for age at first sex and birth linked to externalising behaviour.

Age at first sexual intercourse and age at first birth have implications for health and evolutionary fitness. In this genome-wide association study (age at first sexual intercourse, N = 387,338; age at first birth, N = 542,901), we identify 371 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, 11 sex-specific, with a 5-6% polygenic score prediction. Heritability of age at first birth shifted from 9% [CI = 4-14%] for women born in 1940 to 22% [CI = 19-25%] for those born in 1965. Signals are driven by the genetics of reproductive biology and externalising behaviour, with key genes related to follicle stimulating hormone (FSHB), implantation (ESR1), infertility and spermatid differentiation. Our findings suggest that polycystic ovarian syndrome may lead to later age at first birth, linking with infertility. Late age at first birth is associated with parental longevity and reduced incidence of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Higher childhood socioeconomic circumstances and those in the highest polygenic score decile (90%+) experience markedly later reproductive onset. Results are relevant for improving teenage and late-life health, understanding longevity and guiding experimentation into mechanisms of infertility.

Exome Chip Meta-analysis Fine Maps Causal Variants and Elucidates the Genetic Architecture of Rare Coding Variants in Smoking and Alcohol Use.

BACKGROUND: Smoking and alcohol use have been associated with common genetic variants in multiple loci. Rare variants within these loci hold promise in the identification of biological mechanisms in substance use. Exome arrays and genotype imputation can now efficiently genotype rare nonsynonymous and loss of function variants. Such variants are expected to have deleterious functional consequences and to contribute to disease risk. METHODS: We analyzed ∼250,000 rare variants from 16 independent studies genotyped with exome arrays and augmented this dataset with imputed data from the UK Biobank. Associations were tested for five phenotypes: cigarettes per day, pack-years, smoking initiation, age of smoking initiation, and alcoholic drinks per week. We conducted stratified heritability analyses, single-variant tests, and gene-based burden tests of nonsynonymous/loss-of-function coding variants. We performed a novel fine-mapping analysis to winnow the number of putative causal variants within associated loci. RESULTS: Meta-analytic sample sizes ranged from 152,348 to 433,216, depending on the phenotype. Rare coding variation explained 1.1% to 2.2% of phenotypic variance, reflecting 11% to 18% of the total single nucleotide polymorphism heritability of these phenotypes. We identified 171 genome-wide associated loci across all phenotypes. Fine mapping identified putative causal variants with double base-pair resolution at 24 of these loci, and between three and 10 variants for 65 loci. Twenty loci contained rare coding variants in the 95% credible intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Rare coding variation significantly contributes to the heritability of smoking and alcohol use. Fine-mapping genome-wide association study loci identifies specific variants contributing to the biological etiology of substance use behavior.

Association studies of up to 1.2 million individuals yield new insights into the genetic etiology of tobacco and alcohol use.

Tobacco and alcohol use are leading causes of mortality that influence risk for many complex diseases and disorders1. They are heritable2,3 and etiologically related4,5 behaviors that have been resistant to gene discovery efforts6-11. In sample sizes up to 1.2 million individuals, we discovered 566 genetic variants in 406 loci associated with multiple stages of tobacco use (initiation, cessation, and heaviness) as well as alcohol use, with 150 loci evidencing pleiotropic association. Smoking phenotypes were positively genetically correlated with many health conditions, whereas alcohol use was negatively correlated with these conditions, such that increased genetic risk for alcohol use is associated with lower disease risk. We report evidence for the involvement of many systems in tobacco and alcohol use, including genes involved in nicotinic, dopaminergic, and glutamatergic neurotransmission. The results provide a solid starting point to evaluate the effects of these loci in model organisms and more precise substance use measures.

Use of a capture-based pathogen transcript enrichment strategy for RNA-Seq analysis of the Francisella tularensis LVS transcriptome during infection of murine macrophages.

Francisella tularensis is a zoonotic intracellular pathogen that is capable of causing potentially fatal human infections. Like all successful bacterial pathogens, F. tularensis rapidly responds to changes in its environment during infection of host cells, and upon encountering different microenvironments within those cells. This ability to appropriately respond to the challenges of infection requires rapid and global shifts in gene expression patterns. In this study, we use a novel pathogen transcript enrichment strategy and whole transcriptome sequencing (RNA-Seq) to perform a detailed characterization of the rapid and global shifts in F. tularensis LVS gene expression during infection of murine macrophages. We performed differential gene expression analysis on all bacterial genes at two key stages of infection: phagosomal escape, and cytosolic replication. By comparing the F. tularensis transcriptome at these two stages of infection to that of the bacteria grown in culture, we were able to identify sets of genes that are differentially expressed over the course of infection. This analysis revealed the temporally dynamic expression of a number of known and putative transcriptional regulators and virulence factors, providing insight into their role during infection. In addition, we identified several F. tularensis genes that are significantly up-regulated during infection but had not been previously identified as virulence factors. These unknown genes may make attractive therapeutic or vaccine targets.

Capturing single cell genomes of active polysaccharide degraders: an unexpected contribution of Verrucomicrobia.

Microbial hydrolysis of polysaccharides is critical to ecosystem functioning and is of great interest in diverse biotechnological applications, such as biofuel production and bioremediation. Here we demonstrate the use of a new, efficient approach to recover genomes of active polysaccharide degraders from natural, complex microbial assemblages, using a combination of fluorescently labeled substrates, fluorescence-activated cell sorting, and single cell genomics. We employed this approach to analyze freshwater and coastal bacterioplankton for degraders of laminarin and xylan, two of the most abundant storage and structural polysaccharides in nature. Our results suggest that a few phylotypes of Verrucomicrobia make a considerable contribution to polysaccharide degradation, although they constituted only a minor fraction of the total microbial community. Genomic sequencing of five cells, representing the most predominant, polysaccharide-active Verrucomicrobia phylotype, revealed significant enrichment in genes encoding a wide spectrum of glycoside hydrolases, sulfatases, peptidases, carbohydrate lyases and esterases, confirming that these organisms were well equipped for the hydrolysis of diverse polysaccharides. Remarkably, this enrichment was on average higher than in the sequenced representatives of Bacteroidetes, which are frequently regarded as highly efficient biopolymer degraders. These findings shed light on the ecological roles of uncultured Verrucomicrobia and suggest specific taxa as promising bioprospecting targets. The employed method offers a powerful tool to rapidly identify and recover discrete genomes of active players in polysaccharide degradation, without the need for cultivation.