Invasive breast cancer and breast cancer death after non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ from 1990 to 2018 in England: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the long term risks of invasive breast cancer and death related to breast cancer after non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ. Risks for women in the general population and for women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ via the screening programme were compared. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: Data from the National Disease Registration Service. PARTICIPANTS: All 27 543 women in England who were diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ, outside the NHS breast screening programme, during 1990 to 2018. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident invasive breast cancer and death caused by breast cancer. RESULTS: By 31 December 2018, 3651 women with non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ had developed invasive breast cancer, more than four times higher than expected from national cancer incidence rates (ratio of observed to expected rate was 4.21 (95% conference interval 4.07 to 4.35)). The ratio of observed to expected rate of developing invasive breast cancer remained increased throughout follow-up among women aged <45-70 years. The 25 year cumulative risks of invasive breast cancer by age at diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ were 27.3% for <45 years, 25.2% for 45-49 years, 21.7% for 50-59 years, and 20.8% for 60-70 years. 908 women died of breast cancer, almost four times higher than that expected from breast cancer death rates in the general population (ratio of observed to expected rate 3.83 (3.59 to 4.09)). The ratio of observed to expected rate of mortality attributed to breast cancer remained increased throughout follow-up. The 25 year cumulative risks of breast cancer death by age at ductal carcinoma in situ diagnosis were 7.6% for <45 years, 5.8% for 45-49 years, 5.9% for 50-59 years, and 6.2% for 60-70 years. Among women aged 50-64 years, and therefore eligible for breast screening by the NHS, the ratio of observed to expected rate of invasive breast cancer in women with non-screen detected compared with screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ was 1.26 (95% conference interval 1.17 to 1.35), while the ratio for mortality from breast cancer was 1.37 (1.17 to 1.60). Among 22 753 women with unilateral ductal carcinoma in situ undergoing surgery, those who had mastectomy rather than breast conserving surgery had a lower 25 year cumulative rate of ipsilateral invasive breast cancer (mastectomy 8.2% (95% conference interval 7.0% to 9.4%), breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy 19.8% (16.2% to 23.4%), and breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded 20.6% (18.7% to 22.4%)). However, reductions did not translate into a lower 25 year cumulative rate of deaths attributable to breast cancer (mastectomy 6.5% (4.9% to 10.9%), breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy 8.6% (5.9% to 15.5%), breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded 7.8% (6.3% to 11.5%)). CONCLUSIONS: For at least 25 years after their diagnosis, women with non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ had higher long term risks of invasive breast cancer and breast cancer death than women in the general population. Additionally, they had higher long term risks than women with screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ. Mastectomy was associated with lower risks of invasive breast cancer than breast conserving surgery, even when accompanied by radiotherapy. However, risks of breast cancer death appeared similar for mastectomy, breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy, and breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded.

Cohort profile: the National Congenital Anomaly Registration Dataset in England.

PURPOSE: The National Congenital Anomaly and Rare Disease Registration Service (NCARDRS), part of National Disease Registration Service in National Health Service England, quality assures, curates and analyses individual data on the pregnancies, fetuses, babies, children and adults with congenital anomalies and rare diseases across England. The congenital anomaly (CA) register provides a resource for patients and their families, clinicians, researchers and public health professionals in furthering the understanding of CAs. PARTICIPANTS: NCARDRS registers CAs occurring in babies born alive and stillborn, fetal losses and terminations in England. NCARDRS collects data from secondary and tertiary healthcare providers, private providers and laboratories covering fetal medicine, maternity or paediatric services. Data describe the pregnancy, mother, baby and anomaly. Established in 2015, NCARDRS expanded CA registration coverage from 22% of total births in England in 2015 to national coverage, which was achieved in 2018. Prior to 2015, data collection was performed independently by regional registers in England; these data are also held by NCARDRS. FINDINGS TO DATE: NCARDRS registers approximately 21 000 babies with CAs per year with surveillance covering around 600 000 total births, the largest birth coverage for a CA register globally. Data on prevalence, risk factors and survival for children with CAs are available. Data have been used in several peer-reviewed publications. Birth prevalence statistics, including public health indicators such as the association with maternal age, infant and perinatal mortality, are published annually. NCARDRS supports clinical audit for screening programmes and service evaluation. FUTURE PLANS: NCARDRS provides a valuable resource for the understanding of the epidemiology, surveillance, prevention and treatment of CAs. Currently, approximately 21 000 new registrations of babies or fetuses with suspected or confirmed CAs are added each year. Identifiers are collected, enabling linkage to routinely collected healthcare and population statistics, further enhancing the value of the data.

Breast cancer risk assessment for prescription of menopausal hormone therapy in women with a family history of breast cancer: an epidemiological modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) can alleviate menopausal symptoms but has been associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. MHT prescription should be preceded by individualised risk/benefit evaluation; however, data outlining the impact of family history alongside different MHT therapeutic approaches are lacking. AIM: To quantify the risks associated with MHT use in women with varying breast cancer family histories of developing and dying from breast cancer. DESIGN AND SETTING: An epidemiological modelling study for women in England using the BOADICEA breast cancer prediction model and data relating to MHT use and breast cancer risk taken from research by the Collaborative Group on Hormonal Factors in Breast Cancer. METHOD: The risk of developing and dying from breast cancer between the ages of 50 and 80 years was modelled in women with four different breast cancer family history profiles: 'average', 'modest', 'intermediate', and 'strong' by using 1) background risks of breast cancer by age and family history, 2) relative risks for breast cancer associated with MHT use, and 3) 10-year breast cancer-specific net mortality rates. This study modelled use of combined oestrogen-progestogen MHT (cyclical or continuous) and oestrogen-only MHT. RESULTS: For a woman of 'average' family history taking no MHT, the cumulative breast cancer risk (age 50-80 years) is 9.8%, and the risk of dying from the breast cancer is 1.7%. In this model, 5 years' exposure to combined-cyclical MHT (age 50-55 years) was calculated to increase these risks to 11.0% and 1.8%, respectively. For a woman with a 'strong' family history taking no MHT, the cumulative breast cancer risk is 19.6% (age 50-80 years), and the risk of dying from the breast cancer is 3.2%. With 5 years' exposure to MHT (age 50-55 years), this model showed that these risks increase to 22.4% and 3.5%, respectively. CONCLUSION: In this model, both family history and MHT are associated with increased risk of breast cancer. Estimates of the risks of breast cancer associated with MHT for women with different family histories can be used to support decision making around MHT prescription for women experiencing menopausal symptoms.