The pandemic preterm paradox: A test of competing explanations.

Epidemiologists have long argued that side effects of the stress response include preterm birth. Research reports that fear of lethal infection stressed pregnant persons at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic and that "shutdowns" and "social distancing" impeded access to social support and prenatal care. The decline in preterm births in high-income countries, including the United States (US), during the early months of the pandemic therefore poses a paradox for science. Explanations of this "pandemic preterm paradox" remain untested. We apply time-series modeling to data describing 80 monthly conception cohorts begun in the US from July 2013 through February 2020 to determine which of 3 explanations most parsimoniously explains the paradox. We infer that "prior loss," or the argument that an increase in spontaneous abortions and stillbirths depleted the population of fetuses at risk of preterm birth, best explains data currently available. We describe the implications of these results for public health practice.

Workforce estimate to treat mental disorders in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: Mental, neurological, and substance abuse (MNS) disorders describe a range of conditions that affect the brain and cause distress or functional impairment. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), MNS disorders make up 10.88 percent of the burden of disease as measured in disability-adjusted life years. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is one of the main providers of mental health services and one of the largest contributors to mental health research in the region. Within the past decade, mental health resources and services has increased. METHODS: We employ a needs-based workforce estimate as a planning exercise to arrive at the total number of psychiatrists, nurses, and psychosocial care providers needed to meet the epidemiological need of mental health conditions of the population of KSA. Estimates for a potential mental health workforce gap were calculated using five steps: Step 1-Quantify target population for priority mental health conditions. Step 2-Identify number of expected cases per year. Step 3-Set target service coverage for each condition. Step 4-Estimate cost-effective health care service resource utilization for each condition. Step 5-Estimate service resources needed for each condition. RESULTS: The planning exercise indicates an epidemiologic need for a total of 17,100 full-time-equivalent (FTE) health care providers to treat priority MNS disorders. KSA appears to have a need-based shortage of 10,400 health workers to treat mental disorders. A total of 100 psychiatrists, 5700 nurses, and 4500 psychosocial care providers would be additionally needed (that is, above and beyond current levels) to address the priority mental health conditions. The shortfall is particularly severe for nurses and psychosocial workers who make up 98.9 percent of the shortfall. This shortage is substantial when compared to other high-income countries. Overall, the workforce needed to treat MNS conditions translates to 49.2 health workers per 100,000 population. CONCLUSION: Challenges to addressing the shortfall are Saudi specific which includes awareness of cultural customs and norms in the medical setting. These challenges are compounded by the lack of Saudi nationals in the mental health workforce. Saudi nationals make up 29.5 percent of the physician workforce and 38.8 percent of the nursing workforce. Policymakers and planners supplement this shortfall with non-Saudi providers, who must be mindful of Saudi-specific cultural considerations. Potential solutions to reducing the shortfall of mental health care workers includes nurse task shifting and training of general practitioners to screen for, and treat, a subset of MNS disorders.

The Secondary Sex Ratio and Male Mortality at Pre-Reproductive Ages: A Test of Selection In Utero.

OBJECTIVES: The secondary sex ratio (i.e., the ratio of male to female live births; hereafter referred to as the SSR) falls in populations encountering ambient stressors. Much theory and some empirical work indicates that males born to low SSR cohorts may be "positively selected" in that excess culling in utero may correspond with greater than expected survival among live-born males in that cohort. We extend prior work by testing, in historical Utah, whether the SSR varies positively with male mortality at pre-reproductive ages. METHODS: This study uses detailed records from the Utah Population Database to focus on Utahns born 1850-1940. We use rigorous time-series methods, which control for strong secular declines in mortality as well as ambient perturbations shared equally among males and females, to investigate the male culling inference. RESULTS: We observe a positive relation between the SSR and male mortality during youth (i.e., 5 to < 20 years; p < 0.05) but not in infancy or early childhood. CONCLUSIONS: In this historical population, the SSR appears to gauge hardiness of surviving male cohorts. However, whether the high fertility and/or family structure context of Latter-day Saints in historical Utah explains the age-specific pattern of male mortality warrants further scrutiny.

Racial disparities in law enforcement/court-ordered psychiatric inpatient admissions after the 2008 recession: a test of the frustration-aggression-displacement hypothesis.

BACKGROUND: Societies under duress may selectively increase the reporting of disordered persons from vulnerable communities to law enforcement. Mentally ill African American males reportedly are perceived as more threatening relative to females and other race/ethnicities. We examine whether law enforcement/court order-requested involuntary psychiatric hospitalizations increased among African American males shortly after ambient economic decline-a widely characterized population stressor. METHODS: We identified psychiatric inpatient admissions requested by law enforcement/court orders from 2006 to 2011 across four US states (Arizona, California, New York, North Carolina). Our analytic sample comprises 13.1 million psychiatric inpatient admissions across 95 counties over 72 months. We operationalized exposure to economic downturns as percent change in monthly employment in a metropolitan statistical area (MSA). We used zero inflated negative binomial and linear fixed effects regression analyses to examine psychiatric inpatient admissions requested by law enforcement/court orders following regional employment decline over a time period that includes the Great Recession of 2008. FINDINGS: Declines in monthly employment precede by one month a 6% increase in psychiatric hospitalizations requested by law enforcement/court order among African American males (p < 0.05), but not among other race/sex groups. Estimates amount to an excess of 2554 involuntary admissions among African American males statistically attributable to aggregate-level employment decline. CONCLUSIONS: Economic downturns may increase involuntary psychiatric commitments among African American males. Our findings underscore the unique vulnerability of racial/ethnic minorities during economic contractions.

Excess Injury Mortality in Washington State During the 2021 Heat Wave.

PUBLIC HEALTH IMPLICATIONS: Under global warming scenarios, heat waves of this magnitude will become much more common. Adaptation and planning efforts are needed to protect residents of the historically temperate Pacific Northwest for a range of health outcomes. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(6):657-660. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307269).

Exposure to the early COVID-19 pandemic and early, moderate and overall preterm births in the United States: A conception cohort approach.

BACKGROUND: The United States (US) data suggest fewer-than-expected preterm births in 2020, but no study has examined the impact of exposure to the early COVID-19 pandemic at different points in gestation on preterm birth. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine-among cohorts exposed to the early COVID-19 pandemic-whether observed counts of overall, early and moderately preterm birth fell outside the expected range. METHODS: We used de-identified, cross-sectional, national birth certificate data from 2014 to 2020. We used month and year of birth and gestational age to estimate month of conception for birth. We calculated the count of overall (<37 weeks gestation), early (<33 weeks gestation) and moderately (33 to <37 weeks gestation) preterm birth by month of conception. We employed time series methods to estimate expected counts of preterm birth for exposed conception cohorts and identified cohorts for whom the observed counts of preterm birth fell outside the 95% detection interval of the expected value. RESULTS: Among the 23,731,146 births in our study, the mean prevalence of preterm birth among monthly conception cohorts was 9.7 per 100 live births. Gestations conceived in July, August or December of 2019-that is exposed to the early COVID-19 pandemic in the first or third trimester-yielded approximately 3245 fewer moderately preterm and 3627 fewer overall preterm births than the expected values for moderate and overall preterm. Gestations conceived in August and October of 2019-that is exposed to the early COVID-19 pandemic in the late second to third trimester-produced approximately 498 fewer early preterm births than the expected count for early preterm. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to the early COVID-19 pandemic may have promoted longer gestation among close-to-term pregnancies, reduced risk of later preterm delivery among gestations exposed in the first trimester or induced selective loss of gestations.

New York City's Stop, Question, and Frisk Policy and Psychiatric Emergencies among Black Americans.

Under the Stop, Question, and Frisk (SQF) policy, New York City (NYC) police stopped Black Americans at more than twice the rate of non-Hispanic whites, after controlling for arrests and precinct differences. We examined whether police stops of Black Americans during SQF correspond positively with psychiatric emergency department (ED) visits among Black residents in NYC. We utilized as the exposure all police stops, stops including frisking, and stops including use of force among Black Americans in NYC between 2006 and 2015 from the New York City Police Department's New York City-Stop, Question, and Frisk database. We examined 938,356 outpatient psychiatric ED visits among Black Americans in NYC between 2006 and 2015 from the Statewide Emergency Department Database (SEDD). We applied Box-Jenkins time-series methods to control for monthly temporal patterns. Results indicate that all stops, frisking, and use of force of Black residents correspond with increased psychiatric ED visits among Black Americans in NYC (all stops-coef = 0.024, 95%CI = 0.006, 0.043; frisking-coef = 0.048, 95%CI = 0.015, 0.080; use of force-coef = 0.109, 95%CI = 0.028, 0.190). Our findings indicate that a one standard deviation increase in police stops equates to a 2.72% increase in psychiatric ED visits among Black residents in NYC. Use of force may have the greatest mental health consequences due to perceived threats of physical violence or bodily harm to other members of the targeted group. Racially biased and unconstitutional police encounters may have acute mental health implications for the broader Black community not directly involved in the encounter itself.

A novel approach to estimate the impact of health workforce investments on health outcomes through increased coverage of HIV, TB and malaria services.

BACKGROUND: Globally, HIV, TB and malaria account for an estimated three million deaths annually. The Global Fund partnered with the World Health Organization to assist countries with health workforce planning in these areas through the development of an integrated health workforce investment impact tool. Our study illustrates the development of a user-friendly tool (with two MS Excel calculator subcomponents) that computes associations between human resources for health (HRH) investment inputs and reduced morbidity and mortality from HIV, TB, and malaria via increased coverage of effective treatment services. METHODS: We retrieved from the peer-reviewed literature quantitative estimates of the relation among HRH inputs and HRH employment and productivity. We converted these values to additional full-time-equivalent doctors, nurses and midwives (DNMs). We used log-linear regression to estimate the relation between DNMs and treatment service coverage outcomes for HIV, TB, and malaria. We then retrieved treatment effectiveness parameters from the literature to calculate lives saved due to expanded treatment coverage for HIV, TB, and malaria. After integrating these estimates into the tool, we piloted it in four countries. RESULTS: In most countries with a considerable burden of HIV, TB, and malaria, the health workforce investments include a mix of pre-service education, full remuneration of new hires, various forms of incentives and in-service training. These investments were associated with elevated HIV, TB and malaria treatment service coverage and additional lives saved. The country case studies we developed in addition, indicate the feasibility and utility of the tool for a variety of international and local actors interested in HRH planning. CONCLUSIONS: The modelled estimates developed for illustrative purposes and tested through country case studies suggest that HRH investments result in lives saved across HIV, TB, and malaria. Furthermore, findings show that attainment of high targets of specific treatment coverage indicators would require a substantially greater health workforce than what is currently available in most LMICs. The open access tool can assist with future HRH planning efforts, particularly in LMICs.

Selection in utero against male twins in the United States early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: We aim to contribute to the literature reporting tests of selection in utero. The theory of reproductive suppression predicts that natural selection would conserve mechanisms, referred to collectively as selection in utero, that spontaneously abort fetuses unlikely to thrive as infants in the prevailing environment. Tests of this prediction include reports that women give birth to fewer than expected male twins, historically among the frailest of infants, during stressful times. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in Spring 2020 demonstrably stressed the population. We test the hypothesis that conception cohorts in gestation at the onset of the pandemic in the United States yielded fewer than expected live male twin births. METHODS: We retrieved deidentified data on the universe of live births in the United States from the National Center for Health Statistics birth certificate records. We applied Box-Jenkins time-series methods to the twin secondary sex ratio computed for 77 monthly conception cohorts spanning August 2013 to December 2019 to detect outlying cohorts in gestation at the onset of the pandemic. RESULTS: The twin secondary sex ratio fell below expected values in three conception cohorts (i.e., July, September, and October 2019, all p < .05) exposed in utero to the onset of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Our results add to prior findings consistent with selection in utero. The role of selection in utero in shaping the characteristics of live births cohorts, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, warrants further scrutiny.

National Trends in Suicides and Male Twin Live Births in the US, 2003 to 2019: An Updated Test of Collective Optimism and Selection in Utero.

Prior research based on Swedish data suggests that collective optimism, as measured by monthly incidence of suicides, correlates inversely with selection in utero against male twins in a population. We test this finding in the US, which reports the highest suicide rate of all high-income countries, and examine whether monthly changes in overall suicides precede changes in the ratio of male twin to male singleton live births. Consistent with prior work, we also examine as a key independent variable, suicides among women aged 15-49 years. We retrieved monthly data on suicides and the ratio of male twin to singleton live births from CDC WONDER, 2003 to 2019, and applied Box-Jenkins iterative time-series routines to detect and remove autocorrelation from both series. Results indicate that a 1% increase in monthly change in overall suicides precedes a 0.005 unit decline in male twin live births ratio 6 months later (coefficient = -.005, p value = .004). Results remain robust to use of suicides among reproductive-aged women as the independent variable (coefficient = -.0012, p value = .014). Our study lends external validity to prior research and supports the notion that a decline in collective optimism corresponds with greater selection in utero.

Stress/depression across the COVID-19 pandemic in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: Global estimates suggest strained mental health during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the lack of nationally representative and longitudinal data with clinically validated measures limits knowledge longer into the pandemic. METHODS: Data from 10 rounds of nationally representative surveys from Denmark tracked trends in risk of stress/depression from just before the first lockdown and through to April 2022. We focused on age groups and men and women in different living arrangements and controlled for seasonality in mental health that could otherwise be spuriously related to pandemic intensity. RESULTS: Prior to first lockdown, we observed a "parent gap", which closed with the first lockdown. Instead, a gender gap materialized, with women experiencing higher risks than men-and higher than levels predating first lockdown. Older respondents (+ 70 years) experienced increasing risks of stress/depression early in the pandemic, while all other groups experienced decreases. But longer into the pandemic, risks increased for all age groups and reached (and sometimes exceeded) levels from before first lockdown. CONCLUSION: Denmark had low infection rates throughout most of the pandemic, low mortality rates across the entire pandemic, and offered financial aid packages to curb financial strains. Despite this circumstance, initial improvements to mental health during the first lockdown in Denmark were short-lived. Two years of pandemic societal restrictions correspond with deteriorating mental health, as well as a change from a parenthood gap in mental health before first lockdown to a gender gap two years into the pandemic.

Psychiatric Emergencies in Los Angeles County During, and After, Initial COVID-19 Societal Restrictions: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.

Emergency department (ED) visits for psychiatric care in the US reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work, however, does not control for strong temporal patterning in visits before the pandemic and does not examine a potential "rebound" in demand for psychiatric care following the relaxation of initial societal restrictions. Here, we examine COVID-19-related perturbations in psychiatric care during and after the 1st stage of societal restrictions in the largest safety-net hospital in Los Angeles. We retrieved psychiatric ED visit data (98,888 total over 156 weeks, Jan 2018 to Dec 2020) from Los Angeles County + USC Medical Center. We applied interrupted time series methods to identify and control for autocorrelation in psychiatric ED visits before examining their relation with the 1st stage of societal restrictions (i.e., March 13 to May 8, 2020), as well as the subsequent "rebound" period of relaxed restrictions (i.e., after May 8, 2020). Psychiatric ED visits fell by 78.13 per week (i.e., 12%) during the 1st stage of societal restrictions (SD = 23.99, p < 0.01). Reductions in ED visits for alcohol use, substance use, and (to a lesser extent) anxiety disorders accounted for the overall decline. After the 1st stage of societal restrictions, however, we observe no "rebound" above expected values in psychiatric ED visits overall (coef = - 16.89, SD = 20.58, p = 0.41) or by diagnostic subtype. This pattern of results does not support speculation that, at the population level, foregoing ED care during initial societal restrictions subsequently induced a psychiatric "pandemic" of urgent visits.

Antidepressant Prescription Behavior Among Primary Care Clinician Providers After an Interprofessional Primary Care Psychiatric Training Program.

Primary care providers (PCPs) are increasingly called upon to screen for and treat depression. However, PCPs often lack the training to diagnose and treat depression. We designed an innovative 12-month evidence and mentorship-based primary care psychiatric training program entitled the University of California, Irvine (UCI) School of Medicine Train New Trainers Primary Care Psychiatry (TNT PCP) Fellowship and examined whether this training impacted clinician prescription rates for antidepressants. We retrieved information on 18,844 patients and 192 PCPs from a publicly insured health program in Southern California receiving care between 2017 and 2021. Of the 192 PCPs, 42 received TNT training and 150 did not. We considered a patient as exposed to the provider's TNT treatment if they received care from a provider after the provider completed the 1-year fellowship. We utilized the number of antidepressant prescriptions per patient, per quarter-year as the dependent variable. Linear regression models controlled for provider characteristics and time trends. Robustness checks included clustering patients by provider identification. After PCPs completed TNT training, "exposed" patients received 0.154 more antidepressant prescriptions per quarter-year relative to expected levels (p < 0.01). Clustering of standard errors by provider characteristics reduced precision of the estimate (p < 0.10) but the direction and magnitude of the results were unchanged. Early results from the UCI TNT PCP Fellowship demonstrate enhanced antidepressant prescription behavior in PCPs who have undergone TNT training. A novel, and relatively low-cost, clinician training program holds the potential to empower PCPs to optimally deliver depression treatment.

Patterned Outcomes, Unpatterned Counterfactuals, and Spurious Results: Perinatal Health Outcomes Following COVID-19.

The epidemiologic literature estimating the indirect or secondary effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on pregnant people and gestation continues to grow. Our assessment of this scholarship, however, leads us to suspect that the methods most commonly used may lead researchers to spurious inferences. This suspicion arises because the methods do not account for temporal patterning in perinatal outcomes when deriving counterfactuals, or estimates of the outcomes had the pandemic not occurred. We illustrate the problem in 2 ways. First, using monthly data from US birth certificates, we describe temporal patterning in 5 commonly used perinatal outcomes. Notably, for all but 1 outcome, temporal patterns appear more complex than much of the emerging literature assumes. Second, using data from France, we show that using counterfactuals that ignore this complexity produces spurious results. We recommend that subsequent investigations on COVID-19 and other perturbations use widely available time-series methods to derive counterfactuals that account for strong temporal patterning in perinatal outcomes.

COVID-19 case counts and COVID-19 related Emergency Department visits: differences by immigration status, March-December 2020.

BACKGROUND: Undocumented immigrants face barriers to health care access, which may have been exacerbated during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. We test whether undocumented immigrants in Los Angeles County accessed COVID-19 related medical care by examining their Emergency Department (ED) patterns through high and low periods of COVID-19 infection. If undocumented immigrants were underutilizing or foregoing health care, we expect null or weaker associations between COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 related ED visits relative to Medi-Cal patients. METHODS: We analyzed all ED visits to the Los Angeles County + University of Southern California (LAC + USC) Medical Center between March - December 2020 (n = 85,387). We conducted logistic regressions with Los Angeles County weekly COVID-19 case counts as our main independent variable and an interaction between case counts and immigration status, stratified by age (over and under 65 years). RESULTS: We found that undocumented immigrants under 65 years old had a higher odds for a COVID-19 related ED visit compared to Medi-Cal patients and that both undocumented and Medi-Cal patients had higher odds of a COVID-19 related ED visit as COVID-19 cases in Los Angeles County increased. For patients over 65 years, Medi-Cal patients actually had a weaker association between ED visits and county COVID-19 counts; as COVID-19 case counts rose, the odds of a COVID-19 related ED visit increased for the undocumented patients. CONCLUSION: While the overall likelihood of undocumented patients having a COVID-19 related ED visit varies compared to Medi-Cal patients - for younger patients, the odds is higher; for older patients, the odds is lower - it does not appear that undocumented patients underutilized the ED during the early COVID-19 pandemic relative to Medi-Cal patients. The ED may be a viable source of contact for this high-risk population for future outreach.

Monitoring outpatient antibiotic utilization using reimbursement and retail sales data: a population-based comparison in France, 2012-17.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether a retail sales database could be used to monitor antibiotic utilization in the outpatient setting at the national level. METHODS: We extracted 2012-17 outpatient antibiotic extrapolated retail sales (IQVIA's Xponent) and reimbursement data from the National Health Insurance (SNDS) in metropolitan France. We compared estimates of antibiotic use and consumption [number of antibiotic drug deliveries (DrID) and defined daily doses (DID) per 1000 inhabitants per day]. We relied on relative differences, Pearson's r statistics and time series using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling to study: (i) differences in point estimates, (ii) correlation, and (iii) consistency in time trends between Xponent and SNDS. The analysis was conducted overall and in subgroups (age groups, therapeutic classes, major antimicrobial agents and regions). RESULTS: We analysed approximately 377 million antibiotic drug deliveries, comprising nearly 3.4 billion DDDs. Overall, Xponent slightly overestimated SNDS point estimates with yearly relative differences of +3.5% for DrID and +3.3% for DID. Peaks in relative differences were observed for July and August months. Relative differences were <5% in most subgroups, except for fosfomycin and three French regions. Overall and across most subgroups, the correlation between Xponent and SNDS monthly aggregated estimates was almost perfect (r ≥ 0.992 for all subgroups, except for one region). ARIMA modelling showed high consistency between Xponent's and SDNS's DrID time series, but detected timepoints where the series significantly diverged. CONCLUSIONS: IQVIA's Xponent and SNDS data were highly consistent. Xponent database seems suitable for monitoring outpatient antibiotic utilization in France.

Child Undernutrition following the Introduction of a Large-Scale Toilet Construction Campaign in India.

BACKGROUND: Lack of toilets and the widespread practice of open defecation may contribute to India's large burden of child undernutrition. OBJECTIVES: We examine whether a large national sanitation campaign launched in 2014, the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), precedes a reduction in stunting and wasting among under 5-y-old (u5) children in India. METHODS: In this observational study, we used district-level data from before (2013-2014) and after (2015-2016) SBM from 3 national surveys to derive, as our outcomes, the percentage of u5 children per district who are stunted and wasted. We defined our exposures as 1) binary indicator of SBM and 2) percentage of households with toilets per district. Our analytic sample comprised nearly all 640 Indian districts (with ∼1200 rural/urban divisions per district per time point). Linear regression analyses controlled for baseline differences in districts, linear time trends by state, and relevant covariates. RESULTS: Relative to pre-SBM, u5 stunting declines by 0.06% (95% CI: -0.10, -0.01; P = 0.009) with every percentage increase in households with toilets post-SBM. Rural regions and districts with higher pre-SBM toilet availability show greater decline in u5 stunting post-SBM. CONCLUSIONS: An increase in toilet availability on a national scale, precipitated by the SBM sanitation campaign, is associated with a reduction in undernutrition among u5 children in India over the early phase of the campaign.

Sildenafil and suicide in Sweden.

Much theory asserts that sexual intimacy sustains mental health. Experimental tests of such theory remain rare and have not provided compelling evidence because ethical, practical, and cultural constraints bias samples and results. An epidemiologic approach would, therefore, seem indicated given the rigor the discipline brings to quasi-experimental research. For reasons that remain unclear, however, epidemiologist have largely ignored such theory despite the plausibility of the processes implicated, which engender, for example, happiness, feelings of belonging and self-worth, and protection against depression. We use an intent-to-treat design, implemented via interrupted time-series methods, to test the hypothesis that the monthly incidence of suicide, a societally important distal measure of mental health in a population, decreased among Swedish men aged 50-59 after July 2013 when patent rights to sildenafil (i.e., Viagra) ceased, prices fell, and its use increased dramatically. The test uses 102 pre, and 18 post, price-drop months. 65 fewer suicides than expected occurred among men aged 50-59 over test months following the lowering of sildenafil prices. Our findings could not arise from shared trends or seasonality, biased samples, or reverse causation. Our results would appear by chance fewer than once in 10,000 experiments. Our findings align with theory indicating that sexual intimacy reinforces mental health. Using suicide as our distal measure of mental health further implies that public health programming intended to address the drivers of self-destructive behavior should reduce barriers to intimacy in the middle-aged populations.

Stillbirth as left truncation for early neonatal death in California, 1989-2015: a time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Some scholars posit that attempts to avert stillbirth among extremely preterm gestations may result in a live birth but an early neonatal death. The literature, however, reports no empirical test of this potential form of left truncation. We examine whether annual cohorts delivered at extremely preterm gestational ages show an inverse correlation between their incidence of stillbirth and early neonatal death. METHODS: We retrieved live birth and infant death information from the California Linked Birth and Infant Death Cohort Files for years 1989 to 2015. We defined the extremely preterm period as delivery from 22 to < 28 weeks of gestation and early neonatal death as infant death at less than 7 days of life. We calculated proportions of stillbirth and early neonatal death separately by cohort year, race/ethnicity, and sex. Our correlational analysis controlled for well-documented declines in neonatal mortality over time. RESULTS: California reported 89,276 extremely preterm deliveries (live births and stillbirths) to Hispanic, non-Hispanic (NH) Black, and NH white mothers from 1989 to 2015. Findings indicate an inverse correlation between stillbirth and early neonatal death in the same cohort year (coefficient: -0.27, 95% CI of - 0.11; - 0.42). Results remain robust to alternative specifications and falsification tests. CONCLUSIONS: Findings support the notion that cohorts with an elevated risk of stillbirth also show a reduced risk of early neonatal death among extremely preterm deliveries. Results add to the evidence base that selection in utero may influence the survival characteristics of live-born cohorts.

A needs-based methodology to project physicians and nurses to 2030: the case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), as part of its 2030 National Transformation Program, set a goal of transforming the healthcare sector to increase access to, and improve the quality and efficiency of, health services. To assist with the workforce planning component, we projected the needed number of physicians and nurses into 2030. We developed a new needs-based methodology since previous global benchmarks of health worker concentration may not apply to the KSA. METHODS: We constructed an epidemiologic "needs-based" model that takes into account the health needs of the KSA population, cost-effective treatment service delivery models, and worker productivity. This model relied heavily on up-to-date epidemiologic and workforce surveys in the KSA. We used demographic population projections to estimate the number of nurses and physicians needed to provide this core set of services into 2030. We also assessed several alternative scenarios and policy decisions related to scaling, task-shifting, and enhanced public health campaigns. RESULTS: When projected to 2030, the baseline needs-based estimate is approximately 75,000 workers (5788 physicians and 69,399 nurses). This workforce equates to 2.05 physicians and nurses per 1000 population. Alternative models based on different scenarios and policy decisions indicate that the actual needs for physicians and nurses may range from 1.64 to 3.05 per 1000 population in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our projections, the KSA will not face a needs-based health worker shortage in 2030. However, alternative model projections raise important policy and planning issues regarding various strategies the KSA may pursue in improving quality and efficiency of the existing workforce. More broadly, where country-level data are available, our needs-based strategy can serve as a useful step-by-step workforce planning tool to complement more economic demand-based workforce projections.