Development and Reporting of Prediction Models: Guidance for Authors From Editors of Respiratory, Sleep, and Critical Care Journals.

Prediction models aim to use available data to predict a health state or outcome that has not yet been observed. Prediction is primarily relevant to clinical practice, but is also used in research, and administration. While prediction modeling involves estimating the relationship between patient factors and outcomes, it is distinct from casual inference. Prediction modeling thus requires unique considerations for development, validation, and updating. This document represents an effort from editors at 31 respiratory, sleep, and critical care medicine journals to consolidate contemporary best practices and recommendations related to prediction study design, conduct, and reporting. Herein, we address issues commonly encountered in submissions to our various journals. Key topics include considerations for selecting predictor variables, operationalizing variables, dealing with missing data, the importance of appropriate validation, model performance measures and their interpretation, and good reporting practices. Supplemental discussion covers emerging topics such as model fairness, competing risks, pitfalls of "modifiable risk factors", measurement error, and risk for bias. This guidance is not meant to be overly prescriptive; we acknowledge that every study is different, and no set of rules will fit all cases. Additional best practices can be found in the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, to which we refer readers for further details.

Validation of a method to assess emphysema severity by spirometry in the COPDGene study.

BACKGROUND: Standard spirometry cannot identify the predominant mechanism underlying airflow obstruction in COPD, namely emphysema or airway disease. We aimed at validating a previously developed methodology to detect emphysema by mathematical analysis of the maximal expiratory flow-volume (MEFV) curve in standard spirometry. METHODS: From the COPDGene population we selected those 5930 subjects with MEFV curve and inspiratory-expiratory CT obtained on the same day. The MEFV curve descending limb was fit real-time using forced vital capacity (FVC), peak expiratory flow, and forced expiratory flows at 25, 50 and 75% of FVC to derive an emphysema severity index (ESI), expressed as a continuous positive numeric parameter ranging from 0 to 10. According to inspiratory CT percent lung attenuation area below - 950 HU we defined three emphysema severity subgroups (%LAA-950insp < 6, 6-14, ≥14). By co-registration of inspiratory-expiratory CT we quantified persistent (%pLDA) and functional (%fLDA) low-density areas as CT metrics of emphysema and airway disease, respectively. RESULTS: ESI differentiated CT emphysema severity subgroups increasing in parallel with GOLD stages (p < .001), but with high variability within each stage. ESI had significantly higher correlations (p < .001) with emphysema than with airway disease CT metrics, explaining 67% of %pLDA variability. Conversely, standard spirometric variables (FEV1, FEV1/FVC) had significantly lower correlations than ESI with emphysema CT metrics and did not differentiate between emphysema and airways CT metrics. CONCLUSIONS: ESI adds to standard spirometry the power to discriminate whether emphysema is the predominant mechanism of airway obstruction. ESI methodology has been validated in the large multiethnic population of smokers of the COPDGene study and therefore it could be applied for clinical and research purposes in the general population of smokers, using a readily available online website.

Spirometric assessment of emphysema presence and severity as measured by quantitative CT and CT-based radiomics in COPD.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms underlying airflow obstruction in COPD cannot be distinguished by standard spirometry. We ascertain whether mathematical modeling of airway biomechanical properties, as assessed from spirometry, could provide estimates of emphysema presence and severity, as quantified by computed tomography (CT) metrics and CT-based radiomics. METHODS: We quantified presence and severity of emphysema by standard CT metrics (VIDA) and co-registration analysis (ImbioLDA) of inspiratory-expiratory CT in 194 COPD patients who underwent pulmonary function testing. According to percentages of low attenuation area below - 950 Hounsfield Units (%LAA-950insp) patients were classified as having no emphysema (NE) with %LAA-950insp < 6, moderate emphysema (ME) with %LAA-950insp ≥ 6 and < 14, and severe emphysema (SE) with %LAA-950insp ≥ 14. We also obtained stratified clusters of emphysema CT features by an automated unsupervised radiomics approach (CALIPER). An emphysema severity index (ESI), derived from mathematical modeling of the maximum expiratory flow-volume curve descending limb, was compared with pulmonary function data and the three CT classifications of emphysema presence and severity as derived from CT metrics and radiomics. RESULTS: ESI mean values and pulmonary function data differed significantly in the subgroups with different emphysema degree classified by VIDA, ImbioLDA and CALIPER (p < 0.001 by ANOVA). ESI differentiated NE from ME/SE CT-classified patients (sensitivity 0.80, specificity 0.85, AUC 0.86) and SE from ME CT-classified patients (sensitivity 0.82, specificity 0.87, AUC 0.88). CONCLUSIONS: Presence and severity of emphysema in patients with COPD, as quantified by CT metrics and radiomics can be estimated by mathematical modeling of airway function as derived from standard spirometry.

Executive Summary: 2017 ERS/ATS standards for single-breath carbon monoxide uptake in the lung.

This document summarises an update to the European Respiratory Society (ERS)/American Thoracic Society (ATS) technical standards for single-breath carbon monoxide uptake in the lung that was last updated in 2005. The full standards are also available online as https://doi.org/10.1183/13993003.00016-2016 The major changes in these technical standards relate to DLCO measurement with systems using rapidly responding gas analysers for carbon monoxide and the tracer gas, which are now the most common type of DLCO instrumentation being manufactured. Technical improvements and the increased capability afforded by these new systems permit enhanced measurement of DLCO and the opportunity to include other optional measures of lung function.

2017 ERS/ATS standards for single-breath carbon monoxide uptake in the lung.

This document provides an update to the European Respiratory Society (ERS)/American Thoracic Society (ATS) technical standards for single-breath carbon monoxide uptake in the lung that was last updated in 2005. Although both DLCO (diffusing capacity) and TLCO (transfer factor) are valid terms to describe the uptake of carbon monoxide in the lung, the term DLCO is used in this document. A joint taskforce appointed by the ERS and ATS reviewed the recent literature on the measurement of DLCO and surveyed the current technical capabilities of instrumentation being manufactured around the world. The recommendations in this document represent the consensus of the taskforce members in regard to the evidence available for various aspects of DLCO measurement. Furthermore, it reflects the expert opinion of the taskforce members on areas in which peer-reviewed evidence was either not available or was incomplete. The major changes in these technical standards relate to DLCO measurement with systems using rapidly responding gas analysers for carbon monoxide and the tracer gas, which are now the most common type of DLCO instrumentation being manufactured. Technical improvements and the increased capability afforded by these new systems permit enhanced measurement of DLCO and the opportunity to include other optional measures of lung function.

Interactions between glycopyrronium and indacaterol on cholinergic neurotransmission and contractile response in bovine trachealis.

BACKGROUND: Muscarinic-receptor antagonists and ß-adrenoceptor agonists are used, alone or in combination, as first-line treatment for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Both drugs decrease airway smooth muscle tone by post-junctional mechanisms but they may have opposing effects on pre-junctional acetylcholine (ACh)-release. METHODS: We studied the effects of the muscarinic-receptor antagonist glycopyrronium (GLY), the ß-adrenoceptor agonist indacaterol (IND) and their combination on electrically-induced ACh-release and contractile response in isolated bovine trachealis. Data were analyzed by paired t-test and analysis of variance for repeated or independent measures with Newmann-Keuls post-hoc test when appropriate. RESULTS: GLY 10-8 M decreased contractile response by 19 ± 6% (p = 0.010) without altering ACh-release. GLY 10-7 M and 10-6 M almost abolished contractile responses even if the ACh-release was increased by 27 ± 19% (p < 0.001) and 20 ± 8% (p = 0.004), respectively. IND 10-7 M had no significant effects on contractile response and ACh-release, whereas IND 10-6 M reduced contractile response by 24 ± 12% (p = 0.002) without altering ACh-release. IND 10-5 M decreased contractile response by 51 ± 17% (p < 0.001) and ACh-release by 22 ± 11% (p = 0.004). Co-incubation with GLY 10-8 M and IND 10-7 M did not alter ACh-release but inhibited contractile response by 41 ± 8% (p < 0.001). The latter effect was greater than with GLY 10-8 M, or IND 10-7 M, or IND 10-6 M given separately (p < 0.001 for all). The increment of ACh-release caused by GLY was attenuated by IND 10-5 M, though this did not affect contractile response. CONCLUSIONS: At equimolar concentration, GLY alone attenuates airway smooth muscle contraction more than IND, despite an increased ACh-release. Combination of GLY with IND at submaximal concentrations has more than additive effect suggesting a synergistic post-junctional effect. Adding GLY to IND provides a greater inhibitory effect on airway smooth muscle contraction than increasing IND concentration.

Pulmonary physiology: future directions for lung function testing in COPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a term that encompasses different pathological conditions having excessive airflow limitation in common. A wide body of knowledge has been accumulated over the last century explaining the mechanisms by which airway (chronic bronchitis) and parenchymal (emphysema) diseases lead to an indistinguishable spirometric abnormality. Although the definition of emphysema is anatomical, early studies showed that its presence can be inferred with good approximation from measurements of lung mechanics and gas exchange, in addition to simple spirometry. Studies using tests of ventilation distribution showed that abnormalities are present in smokers with normal spirometry, although these tests were not predictive of development of COPD. At the beginning of the third millennium, new documents and guidelines for diagnosis and treatment of COPD were developed, in which the functional diagnosis of COPD was restricted, for the sake of simplicity, to simple spirometry. In recent years, there has been a resurgence of interest in separating bronchitic from emphysematous phenotype of COPD. For this purpose, high-resolution computed tomography scanning has been added to diagnostic work-up. At the same time, methods for lung function testing have been refined and seem promising for detection of early small airways abnormalities. Among them are the forced oscillation technique and the nitrogen phase III slope analysis of the multiple-breath washout test, which may provide information on ventilation inhomogeneity. Moreover, the combined assessment of diffusing capacity for nitric oxide and carbon monoxide may be more sensitive than the latter alone for partitioning diffusive components at parenchymal level.

Dependence of bronchoconstrictor and bronchodilator responses on thoracic gas compression volume.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: During forced expiration, alveolar pressure (PALV ) increases and intrathoracic gas is compressed. Thus, 1-s forced expiratory volume measured by spirometry (FEV1-sp ) is smaller than 1-s forced expiratory volume measured by plethysmography (FEV1-pl ). Thoracic gas compression volume (TGCV) depends on the amount of gas within the lung when expiratory flow limitation occurs in the airways. We therefore tested the hypothesis that bronchoconstrictor and bronchodilator responses using FEV1-sp are biased by height and gender, which are major determinants of lung volume. METHODS: We studied 54 asthmatics during methacholine challenge and 55 subjects with airway obstruction (FEV1-sp increase >200 mL and >12% after salbutamol) measuring at the same time FEV1-sp or FEV1-pl . RESULTS: During methacholine challenge, TGCV increased more in males than females, correlated with PALV , total lung capacity (TLC) and height, and the provocative dose was lower using FEV1-sp than FEV1-pl . With salbutamol, FEV1-pl increased <200 mL and <12% in 28 subjects, predominantly tall males, with larger TLC, TGCV and PALV . CONCLUSIONS: Bronchoconstrictor and bronchodilator responses are overestimated by standard spirometry in subjects with larger lungs because of TGCV.

Project PriMo: sharing principles and practices of bronchodilator therapy monitoring in COPD: a consensus initiative for optimizing therapeutic appropriateness among Italian specialists.

BACKGROUND: Even after publication of the 2011 update of GOLD report, some fundamental questions in the management of COPD are still open and this may weaken the applicability of these guidelines in everyday clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: To assess the level of consensus amongst Italian respirologists on different topics related to diagnosis, monitoring and role of bronchodilator therapy in COPD, by using the Delphi technique. METHODS: A Delphi study was undertaken between July and November 2011, when two questionnaires were consecutively sent to a panel of experts to be answered anonymously. After each round, the data were aggregated at group level of question topics and structured feedback was given to the panel. RESULTS: A first-round questionnaire was sent to 208 pulmonologists randomly selected from different Italian regions. The 132 respondents (63% of those initially selected) were from northern (53%), central (19%) and southern (28%) Italy. A second-round questionnaire was sent to all the first-round respondents, and a response was received from 110 of them (83%). The main topics that reached the pre-defined cut off for consensus (67% or more) were: a) bronchodilator therapy with long-acting bronchodilators could be beneficial in patients with airflow limitation even in the absence of symptoms, b) in patients not fully controlled with one long-acting bronchodilator, maximizing bronchodilation (i.e. adding another bronchodilator with a different mechanism of action) is the preferable option; and c) the use of inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) as add on therapy should be considered in severe patients with frequent exacerbations. CONCLUSIONS: Italian specialists agree on several aspects of the diagnosis and treatment of COPD and expert opinion could support everyday decision process in the management of COPD.

Lung diffusing capacities for nitric oxide and carbon monoxide at rest and post-walking in long COVID.

Background: Approximately one-third of long coronavirus disease 2019 (long COVID) patients report breathlessness and fatigue even during activities of daily living. We hypothesised that abnormalities of combined diffusing capacity of the lung for nitric oxide (D LNO) and carbon monoxide (D LCO) at rest or after mild exercise are associated with breathlessness in patients with long COVID. Methods: Single-breath combined D LNO and D LCO were measured at rest and immediately after a short bout of treadmill exercise simulating ordinary walking in 32 Caucasian patients with long COVID and dyspnoea at rest. 20 subjects served as a control group. Results: At rest, combined D LNO, D LCO and alveolar volume (V A) were significantly lower in long COVID than in controls, with D LNO and D LCO being below the limits of normal in 69% and 41% of cases, respectively. Mean values of D LNO/V A and D LCO/V A in long COVID patients were less than controls, yet, in only 22% and 12% of long COVID patients were the values of D LNO/V A and D LCO/V A below the limits of normal. After treadmill exercise, D LNO, D LNO/D LCO, V A and heart rate increased significantly without differences between groups. D LNO remained below the limit of normal in 47% of long COVID patients. Conclusion: These data suggest localised discrete loss of lung units in approximately half of long COVID patients, not completely explained by loss of V A or of alveolar-capillary recruitment during exercise.