Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of frontline healthcare workers in a highly affected region in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on the mental health of healthcare workers (HCWs), especially in low and middle-income countries, which had to face additional political, social, and economic challenges. We thus aimed to assess the prevalence of mental health outcomes and the associated factors in HCWs treating COVID-19 patients in one of the most affected regions in Brazil. METHODS: We used the Respondent-Driven Sampling method to assess the risks of COVID-19 infection and symptoms of mental disorders in nurses, nursing technicians, and physicians who worked on the frontline in the metropolitan region of Recife. 865 healthcare workers completed a survey regarding sociodemographic data, work-related risks, and symptoms of mental disorders - SRQ-20 for common mental disorders (CMD); AUDIT-C for problematic alcohol use; GAD-7 for anxiety; PHQ-9 for depression; PCL-5 for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Gile's successive sampling estimator was used to produce the weighted estimates by professional category. A Poisson regression model with robust variance was used to analyze factors associated with a positive screening for CMD. We will present the results of a cross-sectional analysis of the mental health outcomes after the first peak of COVID-19 - from August 2020 to February 2021. RESULTS: The prevalence ratios for a positive screening for CMD were 34.9% (95% CI: 27.8-41.9) in nurses, 28.6% (95% CI: 21.3-36.0) in physicians, and 26.6% (95% CI: 16.8-36.5) in nursing technicians. Nurses presented a higher prevalence of depressive symptoms (23%). Positive screening for problematic alcohol use (10.5 to14.0%), anxiety (10.4 to 13.3%), and PTSD (3.3 to 4.4%) were similar between the professional categories. The main factors associated with CMD in nurses and physicians were related to an intrinsic susceptibility to mental illness, such as previous or family history of psychiatric disorder, and female sex. Among nurse technicians, work-related factors, such as accidents with biological material, presented the strongest association with CMD. CONCLUSION: The mental health of HCWs fighting COVID-19 in Recife was severely affected. It is crucial that healthcare services provide adequate working conditions and psychological support, investing in programs to promote and protect HCWs mental health.

Mental health outcomes in frontline healthcare workers in Brazil during the COVID-19 epidemic: Results of an online survey in four regions using respondent-driven sampling (RDS).

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic overwhelmed health facilities and presented healthcare workers (HCWs) with a new infectious disease threat. In addition to a sanitary crisis, Brazil still had to face major political, economic, and social challenges. This study aimed to investigate mental health outcomes in frontline HCWs in different regions of the country and at different epidemic times. We also sought to identify the main risk factors associated with these outcomes. METHODS: A cross-sectional online survey using respondent-driven sampling was conducted to recruit physicians (n = 584), nurses (n = 997), and nurse technicians (n = 524) in 4 regions of Brazil (North, Northeast, Southeast, and South) from August 2020 to July 2021. We used standardized instruments to screen for common mental disorders (CMD)(SRQ-20), alcohol misuse (AUDIT-C), depression (PHQ-9), anxiety (GAD-7), and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)(PCL-5). Gile's successive sampling estimator was used to produce weighted estimates. We created a three-cluster data set for each HCW category and developed a hierarchical regression model with three levels: individual characteristics; workplace-related aspects; COVID-19 personal experience. The impact of the epidemic moment on the outcomes was also studied. RESULTS: The prevalence of probable CMD was 26.8-36.9%, alcohol misuse 8.7-13.6%, depression 16.4-21.2%, anxiety 10.8-14.2%, and PTSD 5.9-8.0%. We found a stronger association between mental health outcomes and the following factors: history of psychiatric disorders, female gender, and clinical comorbidities (level 1); work overload and family isolation (level 2); sick leave (level 3). Epidemic variables, such as the number of deaths and trend of deaths by COVID-19, had almost no impact on the outcomes. CONCLUSION: An alarmingly high prevalence of depression and anxiety was found in Brazilian frontline HCWs. Individual factors were the most strongly associated with mental health outcomes. These findings indicate the need to develop programs that provide emotional support, identify professionals at risk and refer them to specialized treatment when necessary.

Validation of the WHOQOL-Bref instrument in Brazilian sign language (Libras).

PURPOSE: The recognition of the Brazilian Sign Language (Libras) as the official language of the Brazilian deaf, in 2002, reaffirms the linguistic and cultural particularities of the deaf population. Therefore, there is a lack of a validated instrument for assessing the Quality of Life of deaf people using Libras. With authorization from the World Health Organization (WHO), a version of the WHOQOL-Bref in Libras was developed, called WHOQOL-Bref/Libras. However, its psychometric properties have not been examined as yet. Therefore, the purpose of this work is to perform the psychometric validation of the WHOQOL-Bref/Libras. METHODS: WHOQOL-Bref/Libras and a sociodemographic questionnaire were applied to 311 deaf people from the five Brazilian regions. To assess temporal stability, the questionnaire was readministered to 52 deaf people, over an interval of 2 weeks. RESULTS: WHOQOL-Bref/Libras demonstrated satisfactory psychometric values for reliability, discriminant and construct validity, temporal stability, and internal consistency. Cronbach's alpha coefficient showed satisfactory values for each of the WHOQOL-Bref domains: Physical health (0.641), Psychological (0.705), Environment (0.710), and Overall-Bref domains (0.873). The WHOQOL-Bref/Libras is the appropriate option to assess the quality of life of deaf people who communicate through Libras. CONCLUSION: WHOQOL-Bref/Libras had a satisfactory psychometric performance; therefore, it is a valid option that will provide autonomous participation for the deaf in quality of life investigations.

Diet quality index for Brazilian adolescents: the ERICA study.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to assess the dietary patterns of adolescents using a food-based diet quality index and their compliance with a healthy dietary guideline METHODS: Participants included 71,553 Brazilian adolescents (12-17 years old) from the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA), a cross-sectional school-based multicenter study.. Dietary intake was measured by one 24-h recall. A second recall was collected in a random subsample (~ 10%) to correct within-person variability. The Diet Quality Index for Adolescents adapted for Brazilians (DQIA-BR) was used to measure the overall quality of the dietary intake. The National Cancer Institute method was applied to estimate usual dietary intake. The DQIA-BR and the distribution of its components (quality, diversity, and equilibrium) were analyzed according to sex, geographical area, and type of school RESULTS: The mean (SD) DQIA-BR scores were 14.8% (6.1%) for females and 19.0% (6.3%) for males. All analyzed strata revealed low scores of DQIA-BR and its components. The median usual intake was five to sevenfold below the recommendations for vegetables and fruits and approximately twofold below the recommendations for dairy. The highest DQIA-BR mean scores were found in the northern region [17.0% (6.4%), females; 20.7% (6.3%), males]. Adolescents in both types of schools had relatively similar median intakes of snacks (~ 85 g) and sugared drinks (~ 600 ml) CONCLUSIONS: The overall diet quality of Brazilian adolescents is inadequate based on evaluated parameters in all regions and socioeconomic backgrounds.

Performance of the Gail and Tyrer-Cuzick breast cancer risk assessment models in women screened in a primary care setting with the FHS-7 questionnaire.

Breast cancer (BC) risk assessment models base their estimations on different aspects of a woman's personal and familial history. The Gail and Tyrer-Cuzick models are the most commonly used, and BC risks assigned by them vary considerably especially concerning familial history. In this study, our aim was to compare the Gail and Tyrer-Cuzick models after initial screening for familial history of cancer in primary care using the FHS-7 questionnaire. We compared 846 unrelated women with at least one positive answer to any of the seven FHS-7 questions (positive group) and 892 unrelated women that answered negatively (negative group). Concordance between BC risk estimates was compared by Bland-Altman graphics. Mean BC risk estimates were higher using the Tyrer-Cuzick Model in women from the positive group, while women from the negative group had higher BC risk estimates using the Gail model. With increasing estimates, discordance also increased, mainly in the FHS-7 positive group. Our results show that in women with a familial history of cancer, the Gail model underestimates risk and the Tyrer-Cuzick seems to be more appropriate. FHS-7 can be a useful tool for the identification of women with higher breast cancer risks in the primary care setting.

Cytokines in Machado Joseph Disease/Spinocerebellar Ataxia 3.

The aim of the present study is to describe the serum concentrations of a broad spectrum of cytokines in symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers of Machado Joseph disease (SCA3/MJD) CAG expansions. Molecularly confirmed carriers and controls were studied. Age at onset, disease duration, and clinical scales Scale for the Assessment and Rating of Ataxia (SARA), Neurological Examination Score for Spinocerebellar Ataxias (NESSCA), SCA Functional Index (SCAFI), and Composite Cerebellar Functional Score (CCFS) were obtained from the symptomatic carriers. Serum was obtained from all individuals and a cytokine panel "consisted of" eotaxin, granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), interferon (IFN)-α, IFN-γ, interleukin (IL)-1ß, IL-1RA, IL-2, IL-2R, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-7, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, IL-13, IL-15, IL-17, interferon gamma-induced protein (IP)-10, monocyte chemoattractant protein (MCP)-1, monokine induced by gamma interferon (MIG), macrophage inflammatory protein (MIP)-a, MIP-b, regulated on activation, normal T cell expressed and secreted (RANTES) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α was analyzed. In a subgroup of symptomatic carriers, the cytokine panel was repeated after 360 days. Cytokine distribution among groups was studied by discriminant analysis; changes in serum levels after 360 days were studied by generalized estimation equation. Sixty-six symptomatic carriers, 13 asymptomatic carriers, and 43 controls were studied. No differences in cytokine patterns were found between controls and carriers of the CAG expansions or between controls and symptomatic carriers only. In contrast, eotaxin concentrations were significantly higher in asymptomatic than in symptomatic carriers or in controls (p = 0.001, ANCOVA). Eotaxin did not correlate with age, disease duration, CAG expansion, NESSCA score, and SARA score. Among symptomatic carriers, eotaxin dropped after 360 days (p = 0.039, GEE). SCA3/MJD patients presented a benign pattern of serum cytokines. In contrast, levels of eotaxin, a peptide secreted by astrocytes, were elevated in the asymptomatic carriers, suggesting that a specific response of these cells can be related to symptom progression, in SCA3/MJD.

Comparisons: Technical-Tactical and Time-Motion Analysis of Mixed Martial Arts by Outcomes.

Miarka, B, Vecchio, FBD, Camey, S, and Amtmann, JA. Comparisons: technical-tactical and time-motion analysis of mixed martial arts by outcomes. J Strength Cond Res 30(7): 1975-1984, 2016-The aim of this study was to compare time-motion and technical-tactical analysis between paired outcomes and rounds of mixed martial arts (MMA) matches. The sample consisted of 645 rounds of MMA competition paired by outcomes (first round, winners n = 215 and losers n = 215; second round, winners n = 215 and losers n = 215; third round, winners n = 215 and losers n = 215). The time-motion variables were categorized into low-intensity or high-intensity, stand-up or groundwork situations. Stand-up techniques were analyzed by observing total strikes to the head and body, and takedowns. The actions on the ground were analyzed by observing submission activity, including successful choking and joint locking actions, and also positional improvements, including advances to the mount, half guard, and side and back positions. Chi-squared and Wilcoxon tests were conducted with a significance level of p ≤ 0.05. Results showed that winners had higher values for total strikes and submissions in all rounds, and also positional improvements, over losers. The standing combat with low-intensity comparisons presented differences between the rounds first, with a median of 2:33.5 (P25-P75%: 1:20-3:56) minute, second, with 2:37 (1:24-3:59) minute, and third, with 2:07 (1:06-3:39.2) minute. These data suggest a focus on the intermittent demand presented in combat phases with a special attention to the strike and ground technical-tactical skills; strength and conditioning coaches could emphasize the effort pause ratios for both standing and ground combat that mimic the requirements of MMA, especially during the third round.

Bayesian models as a unified approach to estimate relative risk (or prevalence ratio) in binary and polytomous outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Disadvantages have already been pointed out on the use of odds ratio (OR) as a measure of association for designs such as cohort and cross sectional studies, for which relative risk (RR) or prevalence ratio (PR) are preferable. The model that directly estimates RR or PR and correctly specifies the distribution of the outcome as binomial is the log-binomial model, however, convergence problems occur very often. Robust Poisson regression also estimates these measures but it can produce probabilities greater than 1. RESULTS: In this paper, the use of Bayesian approach to solve the problem of convergence of the log-binomial model is illustrated. Furthermore, the method is extended to incorporate dependent data, as in cluster clinical trials and studies with multilevel design, and also to analyse polytomous outcomes. Comparisons between methods are made by analysing four data sets. CONCLUSIONS: In all cases analysed, it was observed that Bayesian methods are capable of estimating the measures of interest, always within the correct parametric space of probabilities.

A randomized, phase 2 clinical trial of lithium carbonate in Machado-Joseph disease.

BACKGROUND: Because lithium exerts neuroprotective effects in preclinical models of polyglutamine disorders, our objective was to assess the safety and efficacy of lithium carbonate (0.5-0.8 milliequivalents per liter) in patients with Machado-Joseph disease (spinocerebellar ataxia type 3 [MJD/SCA3]). METHODS: For this phase 2, single-center, double-blind, parallel, placebo-controlled trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01096082), 62 patients who had MJD/SCA3 with a disease duration ≤10 years and an independent gait were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either lithium or placebo. RESULTS: After 24 weeks, 169 adverse events were reported, including 50.3% in the lithium group (P = 1.00; primary safety outcome). Sixty patients (31 in the placebo group and 29 in the lithium group) were analyzed for efficacy (intention-to-treat analysis). Mean progression between groups did not differ according to scores on the Neurological Examination Score for the Assessment of Spinocerebellar Ataxia (NESSCA) after 48 weeks (-0.35; 95% confidence interval, -1.7 to 1.0; primary efficacy outcome). The lithium group exhibited minor progression on the PATA speech-rate (P = 0.002), the nondominant Click Test (P = 0.023), the Spinocerebellar Ataxia Functional Index (P = 0.003), and the Composite Cerebellar Functional Score (P = 0.029). CONCLUSIONS: Lithium was safe and well tolerated, but it had no effect on progression when measured using the NESSCA in patients with MJD/SCA3. This slowdown in secondary outcomes deserves further clarification.

The Brazilian founder mutation TP53 p.R337H is uncommon in Portuguese women diagnosed with breast cancer.

Since the first studies reporting the TP53 p.R337H mutation as founder mutation in Southern and Southeastern Brazil, there has been controversy on its origin. Preliminary analysis of a small subset of Brazilian mutation carriers revealed that the haplotype incided on a Caucasian background. The vast majority of carriers identified today reside in Brazil or, if identified in other countries, are Brazilian immigrants. To our knowledge, the only two exceptions of carriers without a recognizable link with Brazil are two European families, from Portugal and Germany. Haplotype analysis in the Portuguese family revealed the same haplotype identified in Brazilian individuals, but in the German family, a distinct haplotype was found. Knowing that a significant proportion of women with breast cancer (BC) in Southern Brazil are p.R337H carriers, we analyzed p.R337H in a Portuguese cohort of women diagnosed with this disease. Median age at diagnosis among the first 573 patients tested was 60 years and 100 (17.4%) patients had been diagnosed at or under the age of 45 years. Mutation screening failed to identify the mutation in the 573 patients tested. These results are in contrast with the mutation frequency observed in a study including 815 BC-affected women from Brazil, in which carrier frequencies of 12.1 and 5.1% in pre- and postmenopausal women were observed, respectively. These findings suggest that the Brazilian founder mutation p.R337H, the most frequent germline TP53 mutation reported to date, is not a common germline alteration in Portuguese women diagnosed with BC.

Li-Fraumeni and Li-Fraumeni-like syndrome among children diagnosed with pediatric cancer in Southern Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric cancers are a feature in patients with Li-Fraumeni syndrome and its variant Li-Fraumeni-like syndrome (LFS/LFL). To the best of the authors' knowledge, TP53 germline mutations are currently the only molecular defect known to be associated with this disease. Recently, a specific germline mutation in this gene, p.R337H, has been reported at a high prevalence in Brazil. METHODS: The prevalence of LFS/LFL was investigated in children with cancer who were diagnosed with tumors on the LFS/LFL spectrum and in a small consecutive series of controls without cancer. The prevalence of the germline p.R337H mutation and of other germline TP53 mutations was investigated in a general group of children with cancer and exclusively in children fulfilling the clinical criteria for LFS/LFL, respectively. RESULTS: Among the 65 children without cancer, 1.5% had a family history of LFL whereas of the 292 children with cancer, 25.3% had a family history of LFL (P < .001). Screening for the p.R337H mutation identified 11 carriers (3.7%), 9 of whom were diagnosed with adrenocortical carcinomas (ACC) and 2 of whom were diagnosed with choroid plexus carcinomas. One of the ACC probands was homozygous mutant. The Brazilian founder haplotype and loss of heterozygosity at the p.R337H locus were present in all carriers. In addition, direct sequencing of the entire TP53 coding region and gene rearrangement analysis of probands fulfilling the criteria for LFL (Eeles 2 criteria, Birch and/or Chompret criteria) and who were negative for the p.R337H mutation revealed a DNA-binding domain pathogenic mutation, p.G245S, in 1 child. CONCLUSIONS: TP53 p.R337H testing should be offered to Brazilian children diagnosed with ACC and choroid plexus carcinoma. A significant percentage of children with cancer in southern Brazil fulfill the criteria for LFL and should be referred for genetic risk assessment.

Gene-environment interaction in externalizing problems among adolescents: evidence from the Pelotas 1993 Birth Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The study of gene-environment interactions (G × E) is one of the most promising strategies to uncover the origins of mental disorders. Replication of initial findings, however, is essential because there is a strong possibility of publication bias in the literature. In addition, there is a scarcity of research on the topic originated from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The aim of this study was to replicate G × E hypotheses for externalizing problems among adolescents in a middle-income country. METHODS: As part of the Pelotas 1993 Birth Cohort Study, 5,249 children were enrolled at birth and followed up to the age of 15 years, with an 85.7% retention rate. We sought an interaction between the homozygosity of the 10-repeat allele at the dopamine transporter (DAT1) gene and prenatal maternal smoking in the development of hyperactivity problems during adolescence assessed by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. We also tested for an interaction between the uVNTR polymorphism at the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) and the experience of childhood maltreatment in the occurrence of conduct problems among adolescent boys. RESULTS: Although there was a clear association between prenatal maternal smoking and hyperactivity scores in adolescence (p < 0.001), no main genetic or interaction effects for the DAT1 gene were detected. Similarly, childhood maltreatment showed to be associated with conduct problems among boys (p < 0.001), with no observable main genetic or interaction effects for the MAOA gene. CONCLUSIONS: In the largest mental health G × E study performed in a LMIC to date, we did not replicate previous positive findings from the literature. Despite the presence of main environmental effects, there was no evidence of effect modification by genotype status. Additional replication efforts to measure G × E are needed to better understand the origins of mental health and illness, especially in LMIC.

Fibre intake and evolution of BMI: from pre-pregnancy to postpartum.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of fibre intake on the evolution of maternal BMI from pregnancy to postpartum and to identify dietary patterns associated with fibre intake. DESIGN: Cohort study. Food intake was obtained using an FFQ. Focused principal component analysis was used focusing on the variables: postpartum weight retention and total dietary fibre intake. Poisson regression models with robust variance were built in order to measure the effect of fibre intake during the postpartum period on obesity risk. SETTING: Primary care clinics in southern Brazil. SUBJECTS: Pregnant women (n 370) were followed until the 5th month postpartum. RESULTS: The highest contribution to fibre intake came from the consumption of beans. Consumption of bread and rice indicated a common Brazilian food pattern along with beans. Participants retained a median of 4.4 (interquartile range 0.6, 7.9) kg of weight gained during pregnancy. Obesity risk, defined as an unfavourable evolution of BMI during pregnancy and postpartum, was present in 189 (55.1%) women. Individual food items did not have an important effect on weight retention. In Poisson regression adjusting for maternal age, pre-pregnancy BMI and total gestational weight gain, inadequate postpartum fibre intake increased obesity risk by 24% (relative risk 51.24; 95% CI 1.05, 1.47). CONCLUSIONS: Important maternal weight retention occurred in these women. Adequate fibre intake may reduce obesity risk in the period following childbirth.

Global patterns of prescription pain medication usage in disorders of gut-brain interactions.

BACKGROUND: Forty percent of individuals globally meet Rome IV criteria for a disorder of gut-brain interaction (DGBI). The global burden of pain across these disorders has not been characterized. METHODS: Our study included 54,127 respondents from the 26 Internet survey countries. Prescription pain medication usage was selected as the proxy for pain. The associations between prescription pain medications and the environmental, sociodemographic, psychosocial, and DGBI diagnosis variables were investigated using the multivariate generalized robust Poisson regression model. KEY RESULTS: Respondents with DGBI used prescription pain medications at higher rates than those without a DGBI diagnosis with pooled prevalence rate of 14.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.4-15.3%), varying by country from 6.8% to 25.7%. The pooled prevalence ratio of prescription pain medication usage in respondents with and without DGBI was 2.2 (95% CI: 2.1-2.4). Factors associated with higher prevalence of pain medication usage among respondents with a DGBI diagnosis included living in a small community, increased anxiety, depression or somatization, increased stress concern or embarrassment about bowel functioning and having more than one anatomic DGBI diagnosis. CONCLUSION: 14.8% of patients globally with at least one diagnosis of DGBI were on prescription pain medications with wide geographic variation, about twice as many as their counterparts without a diagnosis of DGBI. Environmental, sociodemographic, and individual factors may influence clinicians to consider personalized, multimodal approaches to address pain in patients with DGBI.

Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5-11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in Brazil.

Background: Developing countries have experienced significant COVID-19 disease burden. With the emergence of new variants, particularly omicron, the disease burden in children has increased. When the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in children aged 5-11 years of age, very few countries recommended vaccination due to limited risk-benefit evidence for vaccination of this population. In Brazil, ranking second in the global COVID-19 death toll, the childhood COVID-19 disease burden increased significantly in early 2022. This prompted a risk-benefit assessment of the introduction and scaling-up of COVID-19 vaccination of children. Methods: To estimate the potential impact of vaccinating children aged 5-11 years with mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine in the context of omicron dominance, we developed a discrete-time SEIR-like model stratified in age groups, considering a three-month time horizon. We considered three scenarios: No vaccination, slow, and maximum vaccination paces. In each scenario, we estimated the potential reduction in total COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, hospitalization costs, and potential years of life lost, considering the absence of vaccination as the base-case scenario. Findings: We estimated that vaccinating at a maximum pace could prevent, between mid-January and April 2022, about 26,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations, and 4200 deaths in all age groups; of which 5400 hospitalizations and 410 deaths in children aged 5-11 years. Continuing vaccination at a slow/current pace would prevent 1450 deaths and 9700 COVID-19 hospitalizations in all age groups in this same time period; of which 180 deaths and 2390 hospitalizations in children only. Interpretation: Maximum vaccination of children results in a significant reduction of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths and should be enforced in developing countries with significant disease incidence in children. Funding: This manuscript was funded by the Brazilian Council for Scientific and Technology Development (CNPq - Process # 402834/2020-8).

Dynamic transmission modeling of COVID-19 to support decision-making in Brazil: A scoping review in the pre-vaccine era.

Brazil was one of the countries most affected during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a pre-vaccine era, and mathematical and statistical models were used in decision-making and public policies to mitigate and suppress SARS-CoV-2 dispersion. In this article, we intend to overview the modeling for COVID-19 in Brazil, focusing on the first 18 months of the pandemic. We conducted a scoping review and searched for studies on infectious disease modeling methods in peer-reviewed journals and gray literature, published between January 01, 2020, and June 2, 2021, reporting real-world or scenario-based COVID-19 modeling for Brazil. We included 81 studies, most corresponding to published articles produced in Brazilian institutions. The models were dynamic and deterministic in the majority. The predominant model type was compartmental, but other models were also found. The main modeling objectives were to analyze epidemiological scenarios (testing interventions' effectiveness) and to project short and long-term predictions, while few articles performed economic impact analysis. Estimations of the R0 and transmission rates or projections regarding the course of the epidemic figured as major, especially at the beginning of the crisis. However, several other outputs were forecasted, such as the isolation/quarantine effect on transmission, hospital facilities required, secondary cases caused by infected children, and the economic effects of the pandemic. This study reveals numerous articles with shared objectives and similar methods and data sources. We observed a deficiency in addressing social inequities in the Brazilian context within the utilized models, which may also be expected in several low- and middle-income countries with significant social disparities. We conclude that the models were of great relevance in the pandemic scenario of COVID-19. Nevertheless, efforts could be better planned and executed with improved institutional organization, dialogue among research groups, increased interaction between modelers and epidemiologists, and establishment of a sustainable cooperation network.

Binge eating during pregnancy and birth outcomes: a cohort study in a disadvantaged population in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of binge eating behavior (BE) during pregnancy on birth outcomes among 697 Brazilian women who attended primary care. METHOD: Pregnant women answered a questionnaire on sociodemographic data, obstetric history, and The Eating Disorder Examination Questionnaire (EDE-Q). Perinatal outcomes were obtained from birth records. Birth weight, prematurity, caesarean delivery, being small or large for gestational age were compared among women reporting BE (N = 119) and those without BE (N = 578). Poisson regression was used to estimate the association between BE during pregnancy and birth outcomes. RESULTS: BE during pregnancy was not significantly associated with the birth outcomes analyzed. Gestational weight gain was significantly higher among those who reported BE. DISCUSSION: Binge eating behavior during pregnancy may not influence birth outcomes as binge eating disorder does but affects gestational weight gain. Women reporting binge eating during pregnancy should undergo a diagnostic assessment for eating disorders.

Modelling optimal vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in a context of Gamma variant predominance in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Brazil experienced moments of collapse in its health system throughout 2021, driven by the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) combined with an inefficient initial vaccination strategy against Covid-19. OBJECTIVES: To support decision-makers in formulating COVID-19 immunization policy in the context of limited vaccine availability and evolving variants over time, we evaluate optimal strategies for Covid-19 vaccination in Brazil in 2021, when vaccination was rolled out during Gamma variant predominance. METHODS: Using a discrete-time epidemic model we estimate Covid-19 deaths averted, considering the currently Covid-19 vaccine products and doses available in Brazil; vaccine coverage by target population; and vaccine effectiveness estimates. We evaluated a 5-month time horizon, from early August to the end of December 2021. Optimal vaccination strategies compared the outcomes in terms of averted deaths when varying dose intervals from 8 to 12 weeks, and choosing the minimum coverage levels per age group required prior to expanding vaccination to younger target populations. We also estimated dose availability required over time to allow the implementation of optimal strategies. RESULTS: To maximize the number of averted deaths, vaccine coverage of at least 80 % should be reached in older age groups before starting vaccination into subsequent younger age groups. When evaluating varying dose intervals for AZD1222, reducing the dose interval from 12 to 8 weeks for the primary schedule would result in fewer COVID-19 deaths, but this can only be implemented if accompanied by an increase in vaccine supply of at least 50 % over the coming six-months in Brazil. CONCLUSION: Covid-19 immunization strategies should be tailored to local vaccine product availability and supply over time, circulating variants of concern, and vaccine coverage in target population groups. Modelling can provide valuable and timely evidence to support the implementation of vaccination strategies considering the local context, yet following international and regional technical evidence-based guidance.

Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil.

We simulate the impact of school reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic in three major urban centers in Brazil to identify the epidemiological indicators and the best timing for the return of in-school activities and the effect of contact tracing as a mitigation measure. Our goal is to offer guidelines for evidence-based policymaking. We implement an extended SEIR model stratified by age and considering contact networks in different settings - school, home, work, and community, in which the infection transmission rate is affected by various intervention measures. After fitting epidemiological and demographic data, we simulate scenarios with increasing school transmission due to school reopening, and also estimate the number of hospitalization and deaths averted by the implementation of contact tracing. Reopening schools results in a non-linear increase in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths, which is highly dependent on infection and disease incidence at the time of reopening. When contact tracing and quarantining are restricted to school and home settings, a large number of daily tests is required to produce significant effects in reducing the total number of hospitalizations and deaths. Policymakers should carefully consider the epidemiological context and timing regarding the implementation of school closure and return of in-person school activities. While contact tracing strategies prevent new infections within school environments, they alone are not sufficient to avoid significant impacts on community transmission.

Estimating the SF-6D value set for a population-based sample of Brazilians.

OBJECTIVES: SF-6D is a preference-based measure of health developed to estimate utility values from the SF-36. The aim of this study was to estimate a weighting system for the SF-6D health states representing the preferences of a sample of the Southern Brazilian general population. METHODS: A sample of 248 health states defined by the SF-6D was valued by a sample of the southern Brazilian population using the standard gamble. Mean and individual level multivariate regression models were fitted to the standard gamble valuation data to estimate preference weights for all SF-6D health states. The models were compared with those estimated in the UK study. RESULTS: Five hundred twenty-eight participants were interviewed, but 58 (11%) were excluded for failing to value the worst state. Data from 469 subjects producing 2696 health states valuations were used in the regression analysis. In contrast to the best performing model for the UK data, the best performing model for the Brazilian data was a random effects model using only the main effects variables, highlighting the importance of adopting a country-specific algorithm to derive SF-6D health states values. Inconsistent coefficients were merged to produce the final recommended model, which has all significant coefficients and a mean absolute difference between observed and predicted standard gamble values of 0.07. CONCLUSIONS: The results provide the first population-based value set for Brazil for SF-6D health states, making it possible to generate quality-adjusted life years for cost-utility studies using regional data. Besides, utility weights derived using the preferences of a sample from a southern Brazilian population can be derived from existing SF-36 data sets.