Emergent stability in a large, free-flowing watershed.

While it is widely recognized that financial stock portfolios can be stabilized through diverse investments, it is also possible that certain habitats can function as natural portfolios that stabilize ecosystem processes. Here we propose and examine the hypothesis that free-flowing river networks act as such portfolios and confer stability through their integration of upstream geological, hydrological, and biological diversity. We compiled a spatially (142 sites) and temporally (1980-present) extensive data set on fisheries, water flows, and temperatures, from sites within one of the largest watersheds in the world that remains without dams on its mainstem, the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada. We found that larger catchments had more stable fisheries catches, water flows, and water temperatures than smaller catchments. These data provide evidence that free-flowing river networks function as hierarchically nested portfolios with stability as an emergent property. Thus, free-flowing river networks can represent a natural system for buffering variation and extreme events.

Phenological shifts and mismatch with marine productivity vary among Pacific salmon species and populations.

Global climate change is shifting the timing of life-cycle events, sometimes resulting in phenological mismatches between predators and prey. Phenological shifts and subsequent mismatches may be consistent across populations, or they could vary unpredictably across populations within the same species. For anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), juveniles from thousands of locally adapted populations migrate from diverse freshwater habitats to the Pacific Ocean every year. Both the timing of freshwater migration and ocean arrival, relative to nearshore prey (phenological match/mismatch), can control marine survival and population dynamics. Here we examined phenological change of 66 populations across six anadromous Pacific salmon species throughout their range in western North America with the longest time series spanning 1951-2019. We show that different salmon species have different rates of phenological change but that there was substantial within-species variation that was not correlated with changing environmental conditions or geographic patterns. Moreover, outmigration phenologies have not tracked shifts in the timing of marine primary productivity, potentially increasing the frequency of future phenological mismatches. Understanding population responses to mismatches with prey are an important part of characterizing overall population-specific climate vulnerability.

Effects of host migration, diversity and aquaculture on sea lice threats to Pacific salmon populations.

Animal migrations can affect disease dynamics. One consequence of migration common to marine fish and invertebrates is migratory allopatry-a period of spatial separation between adult and juvenile hosts, which is caused by host migration and which prevents parasite transmission from adult to juvenile hosts. We studied this characteristic for sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus clemensi) and pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) from one of the Canada's largest salmon stocks. Migratory allopatry protects juvenile salmon from L. salmonis for two to three months of early marine life (2-3% prevalence). In contrast, host diversity facilitates access for C. clemensi to juvenile salmon (8-20% prevalence) but infections appear ephemeral. Aquaculture can augment host abundance and diversity and increase parasite exposure of wild juvenile fish. An empirically parametrized model shows high sensitivity of salmon populations to increased L. salmonis exposure, predicting population collapse at one to five motile L. salmonis per juvenile pink salmon. These results characterize parasite threats of salmon aquaculture to wild salmon populations and show how host migration and diversity are important factors affecting parasite transmission in the oceans.

Juvenile salmon usage of the Skeena River estuary.

Migratory salmon transit estuary habitats on their way out to the ocean but this phase of their life cycle is more poorly understood than other phases. The estuaries of large river systems in particular may support many populations and several species of salmon that originate from throughout the upstream river. The Skeena River of British Columbia, Canada, is a large river system with high salmon population- and species-level diversity. The estuary of the Skeena River is under pressure from industrial development, with two gas liquefaction terminals and a potash loading facility in various stages of environmental review processes, providing motivation for understanding the usage of the estuary by juvenile salmon. We conducted a juvenile salmonid sampling program throughout the Skeena River estuary in 2007 and 2013 to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of different species and populations of salmon. We captured six species of juvenile anadromous salmonids throughout the estuary in both years, and found that areas proposed for development support some of the highest abundances of some species of salmon. Specifically, the highest abundances of sockeye (both years), Chinook in 2007, and coho salmon in 2013 were captured in areas proposed for development. For example, juvenile sockeye salmon were 2-8 times more abundant in the proposed development areas. Genetic stock assignment demonstrated that the Chinook salmon and most of the sockeye salmon that were captured originated from throughout the Skeena watershed, while some sockeye salmon came from the Nass, Stikine, Southeast Alaska, and coastal systems on the northern and central coasts of British Columbia. These fish support extensive commercial, recreational, and First Nations fisheries throughout the Skeena River and beyond. Our results demonstrate that estuary habitats integrate species and population diversity of salmon, and that if proposed development negatively affects the salmon populations that use the estuary, then numerous fisheries would also be negatively affected.