Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

Mean age and body mass index at type 2 diabetes diagnosis: Pooled analysis of 56 health surveys across income groups and world regions.

BACKGROUND: Screening for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) targets people aged 35+ years and those with overweight/obesity. With mounting evidence on young-onset T2DM and T2DM patients with lean phenotypes, it is worth revising the screening criteria to include younger and leaner adults. We quantified the mean age and body mass index (BMI; kg/m2 ) at T2DM diagnosis in 56 countries. METHODS: Descriptive cross-sectional analysis of WHO STEPS surveys. We analysed adults (25-69 years) with new T2DM diagnosis (not necessarily T2DM onset) as per fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL measured during the survey. For people with new T2DM diagnosis, we summarized the mean age and the proportion of each five-year age group; also, we summarized the mean BMI and the proportion of mutually exclusive BMI categories. RESULTS: There were 8695 new T2DM patients. Overall, the mean age at T2DM diagnosis was 45.1 years in men and 45.0 years in women; and the mean BMI at T2DM diagnosis was 25.2 in men and 26.9 in women. Overall, in men, 10.3% were 25-29 years and 8.5% were 30-34 years old; in women, 8.6% and 12.5% were 25-29 years and 30-34 years old, respectively. 48.5% of men and 37.3% of women were in the normal BMI category. CONCLUSIONS: A non-negligible proportion of new T2DM patients were younger than 35 years. Many new T2DM patients were in the normal weight range. Guidelines for T2DM screening may consider revising the age and BMI criteria to incorporate young and lean adults.

Recognition of Patient Gender: A Machine Learning Preliminary Analysis Using Heart Sounds from Children and Adolescents.

Research has shown that X-rays and fundus images can classify gender, age group, and race, raising concerns about bias and fairness in medical AI applications. However, the potential for physiological sounds to classify sociodemographic traits has not been investigated. Exploring this gap is crucial for understanding the implications and ensuring fairness in the field of medical sound analysis. We aimed to develop classifiers to determine gender (men/women) based on heart sound recordings and using machine learning (ML). Data-driven ML analysis. We utilized the open-access CirCor DigiScope Phonocardiogram Dataset obtained from cardiac screening programs in Brazil. Volunteers < 21 years of age. Each participant completed a questionnaire and underwent a clinical examination, including electronic auscultation at four cardiac points: aortic (AV), mitral (MV), pulmonary (PV), and tricuspid (TV). We used Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCCs) to develop the ML classifiers. From each patient and from each auscultation sound recording, we extracted 10 MFCCs. In sensitivity analysis, we additionally extracted 20, 30, 40, and 50 MFCCs. The most effective gender classifier was developed using PV recordings (AUC ROC = 70.3%). The second best came from MV recordings (AUC ROC = 58.8%). AV and TV recordings produced classifiers with an AUC ROC of 56.4% and 56.1%, respectively. Using more MFCCs did not substantially improve the classifiers. It is possible to classify between males and females using phonocardiogram data. As health-related audio recordings become more prominent in ML applications, research is required to explore if these recordings contain signals that could distinguish sociodemographic features.

Use of continuous glucose monitors in low- and middle-income countries: A scoping review.

AIMS: The use of continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) has been shown to have positive impact on diabetes management for people with type 1 diabetes (T1DM), type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and gestational diabetes (GDM) in high-income countries. However, as useful as CGMs are, the experience in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is limited and has not been summarized. METHODS: A scoping review of the scientific literature was conducted. Medline, Embase, Global Health and Scopus were used to seek original research conducted in LMICs. The search results were screened by two reviewers independently. We included studies assessing health outcomes following the use of CGMs at the individual level (e.g. glycaemic control or complications) and at the health system level (e.g. barriers, facilitators and cost-effectiveness) in English, Portuguese, Spanish and French. Results were summarized narratively. RESULTS: From 4772 records found in database search, 27 reports were included; most of them from China (n = 7), Colombia (n = 5) and India (n = 4). Thirteen reports studied T1DM, five T2DM, seven both T1DM and T2DM and two GDM. Seven reports presented results of experimental studies (five randomized trials and two quasi-experimental); two on cost-effective analysis and the remaining 18 were observational. Studies showed that CGMs improved surrogate glycaemic outcomes (HbA1c reduction), hard endpoints (lower hospitalization rates and diabetes complications) and patient-oriented outcomes (quality of life). However, several caveats were identified: mostly observational studies, few participants in trials, short follow-up and focused on surrogate outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The scoping review identified that studies about CGMs in LMICs have several limitations. Stronger study designs, appropriate sample sizes and the inclusion of patient-important outcomes should be considered to inform the evidence about CGMs for the management of people with diabetes in LMICs.

Skeletal muscle mass and all-cause mortality: Findings from the CRONICAS cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed (1) to evaluate the agreement between two methods (equation and bio-impedance analysis [BIA]) to estimate skeletal muscle mass (SMM), and (2) to assess if SMM was associated with all-cause mortality risk in individuals across different geographical sites in Peru. METHODS: We used data from the CRONICAS Cohort Study (2010-2018), a population-based longitudinal study in Peru to assess cardiopulmonary risk factors from different geographical settings. SMM was computed as a function of weight, height, sex and age (Lee equation) and by BIA. All-cause mortality was retrieved from national vital records. Cox proportional-hazard models were developed and results presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). RESULTS: At baseline, 3216 subjects, 51.5% women, mean age 55.7 years, were analysed. The mean SMM was 23.1 kg (standard deviation [SD]: 6.0) by Lee equation, and 22.7 (SD: 5.6) by BIA. Correlation between SMM estimations was strong (Pearson's ρ coefficient = 0.89, p < 0.001); whereas Bland-Altman analysis showed a small mean difference. Mean follow-up was 7.0 (SD: 1.0) years, and there were 172 deaths. In the multivariable model, each additional kg in SMM was associated with a 19% reduction in mortality risk (HR = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.75-0.88) using the Lee equation, but such estimate was not significant when using BIA (HR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.94-1.03). Compared to the lowest tertile, subjects at the highest SMM tertile had a 56% reduction in risk of mortality using the Lee equation, but there was no such association when using BIA estimations. CONCLUSION: There is a strong correlation and agreement between SMM estimates obtained by the Lee equation and BIA. However, an association between SMM and all-cause mortality exists only when the Lee equation is used. Our findings call for appropriate use of approaches to estimate SMM, and there should be a focus on muscle mass in promoting healthier ageing.

Simplified hypertension screening methods across 60 countries: An observational study.

BACKGROUND: Simplified blood pressure (BP) screening approaches have been proposed. However, evidence is limited to a few countries and has not documented the cardiovascular risk amongst missed hypertension cases, limiting the uptake of these simplified approaches. We quantified the proportion of missed, over-diagnosed, and consistently identified hypertension cases and the 10-year cardiovascular risk in these groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used 60 WHO STEPS surveys (cross-sectional and nationally representative; n = 145,174) conducted in 60 countries in 6 world regions between 2004 and 2019. Nine simplified approaches were compared against the standard (average of the last 2 of 3 BP measurements). The 10-year cardiovascular risk was computed with the 2019 World Health Organization Cardiovascular Risk Charts. We used t tests to compare the cardiovascular risk between the missed and over-diagnosed cases and the consistent hypertension cases. We used Poisson multilevel regressions to identify risk factors for missed cases (adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and 10-year cardiovascular risk). Across all countries, compared to the standard approach, the simplified approach that missed the fewest cases was using the second BP reading if the first BP reading was 130-145/80-95 mm Hg (5.62%); using only the second BP reading missed 5.82%. The simplified approach with the smallest over-diagnosis proportion was using the second BP reading if the first BP measurement was ≥140/90 mm Hg (3.03%). In many countries, cardiovascular risk was not significantly different between the missed and consistent hypertension groups, yet the mean was slightly lower amongst missed cases. Cardiovascular risk was positively associated with missed hypertension depending on the simplified approach. The main limitation of the work is the cross-sectional design. CONCLUSIONS: Simplified BP screening approaches seem to have low misdiagnosis rates, and cardiovascular risk could be lower amongst missed cases than amongst consistent hypertension cases. Simplified BP screening approaches could be included in large screening programmes and busy clinics.

Timed up and go test predicts mortality in older adults in Peru: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: While there is evidence about stablished risk factors (e.g., raised blood pressure) and higher mortality risk in older population, less has been explored about other functional parameters like the Timed Up and Go test and the Gait Speed in older people at low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to study these mobility tests as predictors of mortality in a population of older people in Peru. METHODS: Population-based prospective cohort study (2013-2020). Random sampling of people aged 60+ years in a community of Lima, Peru. Geriatricians conducted all clinical evaluations and laboratory tests were conducted in the local hospital. Participants were sought in the national vital registration system, and we collated cause (ICD-10) and date of death. We conducted a nested forward multivariate Cox proportional hazard model to identify all potential predictors of all-cause, communicable and non-communicable diseases mortality. RESULTS: At baseline, there were 501 older people (mean age 70.6 and 62.8% were women), complete follow-up information was available from 427 people. Mean follow-up time was 46.5 months (SD = 25.3). In multivariate models, the Timed Up and Go test was associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02-1.09). For cause-specific mortality, history of heart disease (HR = 2.25; 95% CI: 1.07-4.76) and age in years (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.01-1.09) were predictors of non-communicable diseases mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to established risk factors for mortality in older population, the Timed Up and Go test, a functional parameter, raised as a relevant predictor of all-cause mortality.

Trends and patterns of the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) in Peru: a pooled analysis of 129,159 mother-child dyads.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to evaluate trends of DBM in Peru over the last 20 years. METHODS: Using individual-level data collected in nationally representative household surveys from Peru between 1996 and 2017, we analysed trends in the prevalence and patterning of the DBM. We classified the nutritional status of children and their mothers as undernourished (either underweight, stunted or wasted for children), normal, overweight or obese. Children classified as experiencing the DBM were those undernourished and living with an overweight or obese mother. We also fitted logistic regression models to evaluate the probability of children having an overweight/obese mother across subgroups of socioeconomic status, place of residence and education. RESULTS: The overall percentage of children experiencing the DBM in 2016 was 7%, and constitutes ~203,600 children (90% of whom were stunted). Between 1996 and 2016, undernourished children have seen the largest relative increase in the risk of having an overweight mother (31% vs. 37%) or obese mother (6% vs. 17%); however, due to the substantial decrease in the absolute number of undernourished children, the DBM has not grown. Moreover, all children, irrespective of their own nutritional status, are now more likely to live with an overweight or obese mother, a consistent pattern across wealth, location and education subgroups, and all regions of Peru. CONCLUSIONS: DBM prevalence in Peru has decreased, although the number of DBM cases is estimated to be above 200,000. In addition, all children are now more likely to live with overweight or obese mothers. The basic pattern has shifted from one of undernourished children whose mothers have a 'normal' BMI, to one where now most children have a 'normal' or healthy anthropometric status, but whose mothers are overweight or obese. This suggest that Peru is on the cusp of a major public health challenge requiring significant action.

Second-hand smoking, hypertension and cardiovascular risk: findings from Peru.

BACKGROUND: Second-hand smoking has not been detailedly studied in Peru, where smoking is prohibited in all indoor workplaces, public places, and public transportation. Second-hand smoke exposure may occur at home or any other places. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of second-hand smoking and assess its association with hypertension and cardiovascular risk in Peru. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Secondary analysis of a nationally-representative population-based survey including individuals aged 18-59 years. There were two outcomes: hypertension and 10-year cardiovascular risk using the Framingham and the 2019 World Health Organization (WHO) risk scores. The exposure was self-reported second-hand smoking during the 7 days before the survey. The association between second-hand smoking and hypertension was quantified with Poisson models reporting prevalence ratio (PR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI); the association between second-hand smoking and cardiovascular risk was quantified with linear regressions reporting coefficients and their 95% CI. RESULTS: Data from 897 individuals, mean age: 38.2 (SD: 11.8) years, and 499 (55.7%) females, were analyzed, with 8.7% subjects reporting second-hand smoking at home and 8.3% at work or any other place. Thus, 144 (15.5%; 95% CI: 12.8%-18.6%) subjects reported any second-hand smoking. In multivariable model second-hand smoking was associated with hypertension (PR = 2.42; 95% CI: 1.25-4.67), and with 1.2% higher Framingham cardiovascular risk, and 0.2% higher 2019 WHO risk score. CONCLUSIONS: There is an association between second-hand smoking and hypertension as well as with cardiovascular risk, and 15% of adults reported second-hand smoke exposure overall with half of them exposed at home. There is a need to guarantee smoking-free places to reduce cardiovascular risk.

Aggregation and combination of cardiovascular risk factors and their association with 10-year all-cause mortality: the PERU MIGRANT Study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the association between the aggregation and pair-wise combination of selected cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and 10-year all-cause mortality. METHODS: Secondary data analysis of the PERU MIGRANT study, a prospective population-based cohort. Ten-year all-cause mortality was determined for participants originally enrolled in the PERU MIGRANT Study (baseline in 2007) through the National Registry of Identification and Civil Status. The CVRF included hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, and overweight/obesity. Exposures were composed of both the aggregation of the selected CVRF (one, two, and three or more CVRF) and pair-wise combinations of CVRF. Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). FINDINGS: Of the 989 participants evaluated at baseline, 976 (98.8%) had information about vital status at 10 years of follow-up (9992.63 person-years), and 63 deaths were recorded. In the multivariable model, adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle variables, participants with two CVRF (HR: 2.48, 95% CI: 1.03-5.99), and those with three or more CVRF (HR: 3.93, 95% CI: 1.21-12.74) had higher all-cause mortality risk, compared to those without any CVRF. The pair-wise combinations associated with the highest risk of all-cause mortality, compared to those without such comorbidities, were hypertension with type 2 diabetes (HR: 11.67, 95% CI: 3.67-37.10), and hypertension with overweight/obesity (HR: 2.76, 95% CI: 1.18-6.71). CONCLUSIONS: The aggregation of two or more CVRF and the combination of hypertension with type 2 diabetes or overweight/obesity were associated with an increased risk of 10-year all-cause mortality. These risk profiles will inform primary and secondary prevention strategies to delay mortality from cardiovascular risk factors.

Skinfold thickness and the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension: an analysis of the PERU MIGRANT study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between excess body fat, assessed by skinfold thickness, and the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and hypertension (HT). DESIGN: Data from the ongoing PERU MIGRANT Study were analysed. The outcomes were T2DM and HT, and the exposure was skinfold thickness measured in bicipital, tricipital, subscapular and suprailiac areas. The Durnin-Womersley formula and SIRI equation were used for body fat percentage estimation. Risk ratios and population attributable fractions (PAF) were calculated using Poisson regression. SETTING: Rural (Ayacucho) and urban shantytown district (San Juan de Miraflores, Lima) in Peru. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (n 988) aged ≥30 years (rural, rural-to-urban migrants, urban) completed the baseline study. A total of 785 and 690 were included in T2DM and HT incidence analysis, respectively. RESULTS: At baseline, age mean was 48·0 (sd 12·0) years and 47 % were males. For T2DM, in 7·6 (sd 1·3) years, sixty-one new cases were identified, overall incidence of 1·0 (95 % CI 0·8, 1·3) per 100 person-years. Bicipital and subscapular skinfolds were associated with 2·8-fold and 6·4-fold risk of developing T2DM. On the other hand, in 6·5 (sd 2·5) years, overall incidence of HT was 2·6 (95 % CI 2·2, 3·1) per 100 person-years. Subscapular and overall fat obesity were associated with 2·4- and 2·9-fold risk for developing HT. The PAF for subscapular skinfold was 73·6 and 39·2 % for T2DM and HT, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We found a strong association between subscapular skinfold thickness and developing T2DM and HT. Skinfold assessment can be a laboratory-free strategy to identify high-risk HT and T2DM cases.

Analysis of dietary patterns and cross-sectional and longitudinal associations with hypertension, high BMI and type 2 diabetes in Peru.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if specific dietary patterns are associated with risk of hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and high BMI in four sites in Peru. DESIGN: We analysed dietary patterns from a cohort of Peruvian adults in four geographical settings using latent class analysis. Associations with prevalence and incidence of hypertension, T2DM and high BMI were assessed using Poisson regression and generalised linear models, adjusted for potential confounders. SETTING: Four sites in Peru varying in degree of urbanisation. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged ≥35 years (n 3280). RESULTS: We identified four distinct dietary patterns corresponding to different stages of the Peruvian nutrition transition, reflected by the foods frequently consumed in each pattern. Participants consuming the 'stage 3' diet, characterised by high proportional consumption of processed foods, animal products and low consumption of vegetables, mostly consumed in the semi-urban setting, showed the highest prevalence of all health outcomes (hypertension 32·1 %; T2DM 10·7 %; high BMI 75·1 %). Those with a more traditional 'stage 1' diet characterised by potato and vegetables, mostly consumed in the rural setting, had lower prevalence of hypertension (prevalence ratio; 95 CI: 0·57; 0·43, 0·75), T2DM (0·36; 0·16, 0·86) and high BMI (0·55; 0·48, 0·63) compared with the 'stage 3' diet. Incidence of hypertension was highest among individuals consuming the 'stage 3' diet (63·75 per 1000 person-years; 95 % CI 52·40, 77·55). CONCLUSIONS: The study found more traditional diets were associated with a lower prevalence of three common chronic diseases, while prevalence of these diseases was higher with a diet high in processed foods and low in vegetables.

The risk of mortality among people with type 2 diabetes in Latin America: A systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based cohort studies.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is associated with a high mortality risk, although the magnitude of this association remains unknown in Latin America (LA). We aimed to assess the strength of the association between T2DM and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in population-based cohort studies in LA. Systematic review and meta-analysis: inclusion criteria were (1) men and women 18 years old and above with T2DM; (2) study outcomes all-cause and/or cause-specific mortality; and (3) using people without T2DM as comparison group. Five databases (Scopus, Medline, Embase, Global Health, and LILACS) were searched. Risk of bias was evaluated with the ROBINS-I criteria. Initially, there were 979 identified studies, of which 17 were selected for qualitative synthesis; 14 were included in the meta-analysis (N = 416 821). Self-reported T2DM showed a pooled relative risk (RR) of 2.49 for all-causes mortality (I-squared [I2 ] = 85.7%, p < 0.001; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.96-3.15). T2DM based on a composite definition was associated with a 2.26-fold higher all-cause mortality (I2  = 93.9%, p < 0.001; 95% CI, 1.36-3.74). The pooled risk estimates were similar between men and women, although higher at younger ages. The pooled RR for cardiovascular mortality was 2.76 (I2  = 59.2%; p < 0.061; 95% CI, 1.99-3.82) and for renal mortality 15.85 (I2  = 0.00%; p < 0.645; 95% CI, 9.82-25.57). Using available population-based cohort studies, this work has identified and estimated the strength of the association between T2DM and mortality in LA. The higher mortality risk compared with high-income countries deserves close attention from health policies makers and clinicians to improve diabetes care and control hence preventing complications and delaying death.

Within-country migration and obesity dynamics: analysis of 94,783 women from the Peruvian demographic and health surveys.

BACKGROUND: Rural-to-urban migration is associated with increased obesity, yet it remains unknown whether this association exist, and to what extent, with other types of internal migration. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of the Peruvian Demographic and Health Surveys (2005 to 2012) on data collected from women aged 15-49 years. Participants were classified as rural stayers, urban stayers, rural-to-urban migrants, intra-rural migrants, intra-urban migrants, and urban-to-rural migrants. Marginal effects from a logit regression model were used to assess the probabilities of being and becoming obese given both the length of time in current place of residence and women's migration status. RESULTS: Analysis of cross-sectional survey data generated between 2005 and 2012. Data from 94,783 participants was analyzed. Intra-urban migrants and rural-to-urban migrants had the highest rates of obesity (21% in 2012). A steady increase in obesity is observed across all migration statuses. Relative to rural non-migrants, participants exposed to urban environments had greater odds, two- to three-fold higher, of obesity. The intra-rural migrant group also shows higher odds relative to rural stayers (42% higher obesity odds). The length of exposure to urban settings shows a steady effect over time. CONCLUSION: Both exposure to urban environments and migration are associated with higher odds of obesity. Expanding the characterization of within-country migration dynamics provides a better insight into the relationship between duration of exposure to urban settings and obesity.

Training opportunities for noncommunicable diseases research in Latin America: A scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: To identify gaps in postgraduate training and options for building capacity in noncommunicable disease (NCDs) research in Latin America. METHODS: This was a scoping review of postgraduate opportunities in NCDs at top universities in Latin America and of training grants awarded by international funding bodies. Three global university rankings were considered-the QS Ranking, the Shanghai Ranking, and the Times Ranking. Latin American universities appearing in at least two of these were selected. University websites were searched for current graduate programs in biostatistics, epidemiology, global health, health economics, and public health. Information was extracted, summarized, and evaluated to identify any programs focused on NCDs. In addition, seven international funding bodies' websites were searched for training grants. RESULTS: In all, 33 universities offering 72 postgraduate programs met the inclusion criteria. One of these programs was exclusively devoted to NCD, and 12 offered NCDs as a dissertation research topic. Only two training grants were awarded to a Latin American institution for NCD capacity building. There are few NCD research training programs in Latin America and only one program exclusively focused on NCDs. CONCLUSION: There seem to be few NCD-specific research training programs in Latin America. Leveraging existing programs and expanding those with a focus on NCDs could help enhance NCD research capacity in the region. These initiatives should be supported by international funding agencies through more funding opportunities.

Parental body mass index and blood pressure are associated with higher body mass index and blood pressure in their adult offspring: a cross-sectional study in a resource-limited setting in northern Peru.

OBJECTIVES: High body mass index (BMI) and blood pressure (BP) are major contributors to the high burden of non-communicable diseases in adulthood. Individual high-risk and population approaches for prevention require newer strategies to target these risk factors and focusing on the family to introduce prevention initiatives appears as a promising scenario. Characterisation of the relationship between BMI and BP among the adult members of a given family merits evaluation. We conducted a secondary analysis of an implementation study in Tumbes, Peru, benefiting from data derived from families with at least one adult offspring. METHODS: The exposures of interest were the BMI, systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) of the mother and father. The outcomes were the BMI, SBP and DBP of the offspring. Mixed-effects linear regression models were conducted. RESULTS: The mean age of the offspring, mothers and fathers was 29 (SD: 9.5), 54 (SD: 11.8) and 59 (SD: 11.6) years, respectively. Father's BMI was associated with a quarter-point increase in offspring BMI, regardless of the sex of the offspring. Mother's BMI had a similar effect on the BMI of her sons, but had no significant effect on her daughters'. Mother's SBP was associated with almost one-tenth of mmHg increase in the SBP of the adult offspring. There was no evidence of an association for DBP. CONCLUSIONS: In families with adult members, the higher the parents' BMI and SBP, the higher their adult offspring's levels will be.

Sweetened beverages, snacks and overweight: findings from the Young Lives cohort study in Peru.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between consumption of snacks and sweetened beverages and risk of overweight among children. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the Young Lives cohort study in Peru. SETTING: Twenty sentinel sites from a total of 1818 districts available in Peru. SUBJECTS: Children in the younger cohort of the Young Lives study in Peru, specifically those included in the third (2009) and the fourth (2013) rounds. RESULTS: A total of 1813 children were evaluated at baseline; 49·2 % girls and mean age 8·0 (sd 0·3) years. At baseline, 3·3 (95 % CI 2·5, 4·2) % reported daily sweetened beverage consumption, while this proportion was 3·9 (95 % CI 3·1, 4·9) % for snacks. Baseline prevalence of overweight was 22·0 (95 % CI 20·1, 23·9) %. Only 1414 children were followed for 4·0 (sd 0·1) years, with an overweight incidence of 3·6 (95 % CI 3·1, 4·1) per 100 person-years. In multivariable analysis, children who consumed sweetened beverages and snacks daily had an average weight increase of 2·29 (95 % CI 0·62, 3·96) and 2·04 (95 % CI 0·48, 3·60) kg more, respectively, than those who never consumed these products, in approximately 4 years of follow-up. Moreover, there was evidence of an association between daily consumption of sweetened beverages and risk of overweight (relative risk=2·12; 95 % CI 1·05, 4·28). CONCLUSIONS: Daily consumption of sweetened beverages and snacks was associated with increased weight gain v. never consuming these products; and in the case of sweetened beverages, with higher risk of developing overweight.

Risk score for first-screening of prevalent undiagnosed chronic kidney disease in Peru: the CRONICAS-CKD risk score.

BACKGROUND: Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) represents a great burden for the patient and the health system, particularly if diagnosed at late stages. Consequently, tools to identify patients at high risk of having CKD are needed, particularly in limited-resources settings where laboratory facilities are scarce. This study aimed to develop a risk score for prevalent undiagnosed CKD using data from four settings in Peru: a complete risk score including all associated risk factors and another excluding laboratory-based variables. METHODS: Cross-sectional study. We used two population-based studies: one for developing and internal validation (CRONICAS), and another (PREVENCION) for external validation. Risk factors included clinical- and laboratory-based variables, among others: sex, age, hypertension and obesity; and lipid profile, anemia and glucose metabolism. The outcome was undiagnosed CKD: eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73m2. We tested the performance of the risk scores using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative predictive values and positive/negative likelihood ratios. RESULTS: Participants in both studies averaged 57.7 years old, and over 50% were females. Age, hypertension and anemia were strongly associated with undiagnosed CKD. In the external validation, at a cut-off point of 2, the complete and laboratory-free risk scores performed similarly well with a ROC area of 76.2% and 76.0%, respectively (P = 0.784). The best assessment parameter of these risk scores was their negative predictive value: 99.1% and 99.0% for the complete and laboratory-free, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The developed risk scores showed a moderate performance as a screening test. People with a score of ≥ 2 points should undergo further testing to rule out CKD. Using the laboratory-free risk score is a practical approach in developing countries where laboratories are not readily available and undiagnosed CKD has significant morbidity and mortality.

Parity and Overweight/Obesity in Peruvian Women.

INTRODUCTION: The rise in noncommunicable diseases and their risk factors in developing countries may have changed or intensified the effect of parity on obesity. We aimed to assess this association in Peruvian women using data from a nationally representative survey. METHODS: We used data from Peru's Demographic and Health Survey, 2012. Parity was defined as the number of children ever born to a woman. We defined overweight as having a body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) of 25.0 to 29.9 and obesity as a BMI ≥30.0. Generalized linear models were used to evaluate the association between parity and BMI and BMI categories, by area of residence and age, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: Data from 16,082 women were analyzed. Mean parity was 2.25 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.17-2.33) among rural women and 1.40 (95% CI, 1.36-1.43) among urban women. Mean BMI was 26.0 (standard deviation, 4.6). We found evidence of an association between parity and BMI, particularly in younger women; BMI was up to 4 units higher in rural areas and 2 units higher in urban areas. An association between parity and BMI categories was observed in rural areas as a gradient, being highest in younger women. CONCLUSION: We found a positive association between parity and overweight/obesity. This relationship was stronger in rural areas and among younger mothers.

Impact of Food Assistance Programs on Obesity in Mothers and Children: A Prospective Cohort Study in Peru.

OBJECTIVES: To assess obesity risk among mothers participating in Community Kitchens and children participating in Glass of Milk (Peru food assistance programs). METHODS: We analyzed prospective data from the Young Lives study. The exposure consisted in varying degrees of benefit from any of the programs (no participation in any of the programs, program participation for some months, or program participation nearly every month) at baseline (2006-2007). The outcome was overweight and obesity in mothers and children at follow-up (2009-2010). RESULTS: Prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity was 15.5% and 5.1%, respectively; the corresponding figures for mothers were 40.5% and 14.6%. Children exposed nearly every month to the Glass of Milk program had a 65% lower risk of becoming obese compared with children not participating in the program (relative risk [RR] = 0.35; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.18, 0.66). Mothers participating frequently in the Community Kitchens program had almost twice the risk of becoming obese compared with those who did not participate (RR = 1.93; 95% CI = 1.18, 3.15). CONCLUSIONS: Participating in food assistance programs in Peru was associated with a lower risk of obesity in children and greater risk of obesity in mothers.