Use of Imaging-guided Decongestion for Reducing Heart Failure Readmission and Death in High-risk Patients: A Multi-site Randomized Trial of a Nurse-led Strategy at the Point of Care.

BACKGROUND: Nurse-led disease management programs (DMPs) decrease readmission after acute decompensated heart failure (HF). We sought whether readmissions could be further reduced by lung ultrasound (LUS)-guided decongestion before discharge and during DMP. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 290 patients hospitalized with acute decompensated HF, 122 at high risk for readmission or mortality were randomized to receive usual care (UC) (n = 64) or UC plus intervention (DMP-Plus) (n = 58), comprising LUS-guided management before discharge and during at-home follow-up. Residual congestion was identified by ≥10 B-lines detected in 8 lung zones. The outcomes included a composite of readmission and/or mortality at 30 and 90 days, and 90-day HF readmission. Residual congestion was detected equally among the patient groups. The 30-day composite outcome occurred in 28% DMP-plus patients and 22% UC patients (odd ratio [OR], 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-3.1; P = .5) and the 90-day HF readmission outcome occurred in 22% and 31%, respectively (odds ratio, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.28-1.43; P = .3). Residual congestion, identified at predischarge LUS examination in high-risk patients, was associated with early (<14-day) HF readmission (relative risk, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.06-1.32; P = .002) and multiple (≥2) readmissions over 90 days of follow-up (relative risk, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01-1.16; P = .012), independent of demographics and comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Readmission in patients with incomplete decongestion before discharge occurs within the first 2 weeks. However, our DMP-plus strategy did not improve the primary outcome.

Optimising the implementation of digital-supported interventions for the secondary prevention of heart disease: a systematic review using the RE-AIM planning and evaluation framework.

BACKGROUND: mHealth technologies are now widely utilised to support the delivery of secondary prevention programs in heart disease. Interventions with mHealth included have shown a similar efficacy and safety to conventional programs with improvements in access and adherence. However, questions remain regarding the successful wider implementation of digital-supported programs. By applying the Reach-Effectiveness-Adoption-Implementation-Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework to a systematic review and meta-analysis, this review aims to evaluate the extent to which these programs report on RE-AIM dimensions and associated indicators. METHODS: This review extends our previous systematic review and meta-analysis that investigated the effectiveness of digital-supported programs for patients with coronary artery disease. Citation searches were performed on the 27 studies of the systematic review to identify linked publications that reported data for RE-AIM dimensions. All included studies and, where relevant, any additional publications, were coded using an adapted RE-AIM extraction tool. Discrepant codes were discussed amongst reviewers to gain consensus. Data were analysed to assess reporting on indicators related to each of the RE-AIM dimensions, and average overall reporting rates for each dimension were calculated. RESULTS: Searches found an additional nine publications. Across 36 publications that were linked to the 27 studies, 24 (89%) of the studies were interventions solely delivered at home. The average reporting rates for RE-AIM dimensions were highest for effectiveness (75%) and reach (67%), followed by adoption (54%), implementation (36%) and maintenance (11%). Eleven (46%) studies did not describe relevant characteristics of their participants or of staff involved in the intervention; most studies did not describe unanticipated consequences of the intervention; the ongoing cost of intervention implementation and maintenance; information on intervention fidelity; long-term follow-up outcomes, or program adaptation in other settings. CONCLUSIONS: Through the application of the RE-AIM framework to a systematic review we found most studies failed to report on key indicators. Failing to report these indicators inhibits the ability to address the enablers and barriers required to achieve optimal intervention implementation in wider settings and populations. Future studies should consider alternative hybrid trial designs to enable reporting of implementation indicators to improve the translation of research evidence into routine practice, with special consideration given to the long-term sustainability of program effects as well as corresponding ongoing costs. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO-CRD42022343030.

Use of coronary computed tomography or polygenic risk scores to prompt action to reduce coronary artery disease risk: the CAPAR-CAD trial.

BACKGROUND: The traditional primary prevention paradigm for coronary artery disease (CAD) centers on population-based algorithms to classify individual risk. However, this approach often misclassifies individuals and leaves many in the 'intermediate' category, for whom there is no clear preferred prevention strategy. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) and polygenic risk scoring (PRS) are 2 contemporary tools for risk prediction to enhance the impact of effective management. AIMS: To determine how these CAC and PRS impact adherence to pharmacotherapy and lifestyle measures in asymptomatic individuals with subclinical atherosclerosis. METHODS: The CAPAR-CAD study is a multicenter, open, randomized controlled trial in Victoria, Australia. Participants are self-selected individuals aged 40 to 70 years with no prior history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), intermediate 10-year risk for CAD as determined by the pooled cohort equation (PCE), and CAC scores >0. All participants will have a health assessment, a full CT coronary angiogram (CTCA), and PRS calculation. They will then be randomized to receive their risk presented either as PCE and CAC, or PCE and PRS. The intervention includes e-Health coaching focused on risk factor management, health education and pharmacotherapy, and follow-up to augment adherence to a statin medication. The primary endpoint is a change in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) from baseline to 12 months. The secondary endpoint is between-group differences in behavior modification and adherence to statin pharmacotherapy. RESULTS: As of July 31, 2021, we have screened 1,903 individuals. We present the results of the 574 participants deemed eligible after baseline assessment.

Long term all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality among women who undergo fertility treatment.

OBJECTIVES: To compare age-adjusted all-cause and CVD mortality, relative to the general female population, for women registered for fertility treatment who received it and those who did not. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study; analysis of Monash IVF clinical registries data, 1975-2018, linked with National Death Index mortality data. PARTICIPANTS: All women who registered for fertility treatment at Monash IVF (Melbourne, Victoria), 1 January 1975 - 1 January 2014, followed until 31 December 2018. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for all-cause and CVD mortality, for women who did or did not undergo fertility treatment; SMRs stratified by area-level socio-economic disadvantage (SEIFA Index of Relative Socioeconomic Disadvantage [IRSD]) and (for women who underwent treatment), by stimulated cycle number and mean oocytes/cycle categories. RESULTS: Of 44 149 women registered for fertility treatment, 33 520 underwent treatment (66.4%), 10 629 did not. After adjustment for age, both all-cause (SMR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.54-0.62) and CVD mortality (SMR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.32-0.53) were lower than for the general female population. All-cause mortality was similar for women registered with Monash IVF who did (SMR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.50-0.60) or did not undergo fertility treatment (SMR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.56-0.70). The SMR was lowest for both treated and untreated women in the fifth IRSD quintile (least disadvantage), but the difference was statistically significant only for untreated women. CVD mortality was lower for registered women who underwent fertility treatment (SMR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.19-0.43) than for those who did not (SMR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.42-0.81). CONCLUSION: Fertility treatment does not increase long term all-cause or CVD mortality risk. Lower mortality among women registered for fertility treatment probably reflected their lower socio-economic disadvantage.

Association between arthritis and cardiovascular risk factors in community-based adults: an opportunity to target cardiovascular risk.

BACKGROUND: Undertreated risk factors are major contributors to the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Those with arthritis have an increased prevalence of CVD risk factors. CVD risk factors are often asymptomatic, which may be a barrier their treatment. Arthritis causes pain and immobility, and is a common reason for individuals to seek healthcare. Our aims were to (1) examine the relationship between arthritis and CVD risk factors in Australian adults, and (2) calculate the proportion of CVD risk factors that could be reduced if individuals with arthritis were targeted. METHODS: This cross-sectional study uses data from the 2017-18 Australian National Health Survey which included 13,776 participants, categorised into young (18-39 years), middle aged (40-64 years) and older (≥ 65 years) adults. Hypertension, height and weight were measured. Arthritis, dyslipidemia and diabetes were self-reported. The associations between arthritis and CVD risk factors were examined using logistic regression, and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of arthritis for each CVD risk factor was calculated. RESULTS: Arthritis was reported by 4.0% of young adults, 28.8% of middle-aged adults and 54.5% of older adults. Those with arthritis were at increased odds of obesity (2.07 fold in young, 1.75 fold in middle-aged and 1.89 fold in older adults), increased odds of diabetes (5.70 fold in young, 1.64 fold in middle-aged and 1.37 fold in older adults), increased odds of hypertension (2.72 fold in young, 1.78 fold in middle-aged and 1.48 fold in older adults) and an increased odds of dyslipidaemia (4.64 fold in young, 2.14 fold in middle-aged and 1.22 fold in older adults) compared to those without arthritis. This elevated chance remained significant even after adjusting for obesity, with the exception of diabetes in the older population. This elevated chance remained significant even after adjusting for obesity, with the exception of diabetes in the older population. The PAF of the presence of arthritis for having at least one CVD risk factor was 30.7% in middle-aged adults and 70.4% in older adults. CONCLUSION: Australian adults of all ages with arthritis are at increased odds of having CVD risk factors. For young and middle-aged adults, this increased odds remains significant even when adjusted for obesity. Presentation to healthcare practitioners with arthritis is an opportunity to screen for asymptomatic CVD risk factors with the potential of improving outcomes for both diseases. By adopting an approach of managing arthritis and CVD risk factors in parallel, rather than in silos, we could reduce the burden of CVD risk factors by 20-30%.

Improved sleep efficiency is associated with reduced cardio-metabolic risk: Findings from the MODERN trial.

Poor sleep increases cardio-metabolic risk, but limited information on the impact of sleep for the improvement of cardio-metabolic health exists. This analysis examined the impact of sleep on a health and lifestyle modification programme to reduce cardio-metabolic disease risk factors. Secondary analysis of the MODERN randomised controlled trial to reduce cardio-metabolic risk was undertaken at baseline and 24-month follow-up. Participants aged 40-70 years (n = 121) with three or more cardio-metabolic risk factors were randomised to a health and lifestyle modification intervention (n = 59) or usual care (n = 62), and underwent 7 day/night actigraphy to assess total sleep time, sleep efficiency (%), number of awakenings/night and physical activity levels. Blood pressure, blood lipid and glycaemic levels, anthropometric and diet measures were collected. The mean age was 59 ± 7 years and 37% were male. Baseline sleep measures were not different between groups. At the 24-month follow-up, both groups showed improvements in cardio-metabolic risk factors, albeit the change in blood pressure was greater in the intervention compared with the usual care group (systolic blood pressure: -11 versus -4 mmHg, p = .014). There were no differences between groups for diet, physical activity or sleep parameters. An increase in sleep efficiency was independently associated with lower systolic blood pressure (ß = -2.117, p = .002) and higher high-density lipoprotein levels (ß = 0.040, p = .033); an increase in total sleep time was associated with lower low-density lipoprotein levels (ß = -0.003, p = .038) at 24 months. Overall, improvement in sleep quality over time was beneficial to reduce blood pressure and lipid levels. These findings highlight sleep as a potential target to reduce cardio-metabolic risk.

Sleep quantity and quality and cardiometabolic risk factors in Indigenous Australians.

Poor sleep is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Indigenous Australians have 1.3 times higher risk of CVD compared to non-indigenous Australians. However, there are limited data describing sleep problems and cardiometabolic risk in this population. This study aimed to investigate sleep quantity and quality in indigenous Australians and assess its association with cardiometabolic risk. Two hundred and forty-five indigenous Australians aged > 18 years were recruited via convenience sampling from communities in the Northern Territory and Queensland. Sleep quantity and quality was assessed subjectively with questionnaires including the Epworth Sleepiness Scale. In a sub-population (n = 46), objective sleep assessment was performed over three nights of actigraphy. Cardiometabolic risk measures included glycated haemoglobin, lipids, anthropometric measurements and sitting blood pressure. Sleep duration measured subjectively and objectively averaged 7.5 ± 2.0 hr/night; however, over one-third of participants (self-report 35%; actigraphy 39%) obtained < 7 hr/night. Overall, more than a third of participants experienced poor-quality sleep, with 27% reporting severe daytime sleepiness (ESS score > 10) and a high number of objectively measured awakenings/night (6 ± 4). Short sleep duration (<6 hr/night) measured both subjectively and objectively was an independent predictor of diastolic (ß = 5.37, p = .038) and systolic blood pressure (ß = 14.30, p = .048). More objectively measured night-time awakenings were associated with increased glycated haemoglobin levels (ß = 0.07, p = .020) and greater sleep fragmentation was associated with lower high-density lipoprotein levels (ß = -0.01, p = .025). A large proportion of indigenous Australians experienced short sleep durations and had significant sleep disruption. Poor sleep quantity and quality may contribute to heightened cardiometabolic risk in this population.

Imaging-guided evaluation of subclinical atherosclerosis to enhance cardiovascular risk prediction in asymptomatic low-to-intermediate risk individuals: A systematic review.

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), plaque quantification and coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring have been suggested to improve risk prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD), particularly for asymptomatic individuals classified as low-to-intermediate risk. We aimed to compare the predictive value of cIMT, carotid plaque identification, and CAC scoring for identifying sub-clinical atherosclerosis and assessing future risk of CVD in asymptomatic, low-to-intermediate risk individuals. We conducted a comprehensive search of Ovid (Embase and Medline), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Medline complete (EBSCO health). A total of 30 papers were selected and data were extracted. Comparisons were made according to the cIMT measurement (mean, maximum), carotid plaque evaluation (presence or area), and CAC scoring. CVD event rates, hazard ratios (HR), net reclassification index (NRI), and c-statistic of the markers were compared. There were 27 studies that reported cIMT, 24 reported carotid plaque, and 6 reported CAC scoring. Inclusion of CAC scores yielded the highest HR ranging from 1.45 (95% CI, 1.11-1.88, p = 0.006) to 3.95 (95% CI, 2.97-5.27, p < 0.001), followed by maximum cIMT (HR 1.08; 95% CI, 1.06-1.11, p < 0.001 to 2.58; 95% CI, 1.83-3.62, p < 0.001) and carotid plaque presence (HR 1.21; 95% CI, 0.5-1.2, p = 0.39 to 2.43; 95% CI, 1.7-3.47, p < 0.001). The c-statistic enhanced predictive value by a minimum increase of 0.7. Finally, the NRI ranked higher with CAC (≥11.2%), followed by carotid plaque (≥2%) and cIMT (3%). CAC scoring was superior compared to carotid plaque and cIMT measurements in asymptomatic individuals classified as being at low-to-intermediate risk.

Multimorbidity and the Risk of All-Cause 30-Day Readmission in the Setting of Multidisciplinary Management of Chronic Heart Failure: A Retrospective Analysis of 830 Hospitalized Patients in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity has an adverse effect on health outcomes in hospitalized individuals with chronic heart failure (CHF), but the modulating effect of multidisciplinary management is unknown. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that increasing morbidity would independently predict an increasing risk of 30-day readmission despite multidisciplinary management of CHF. METHODS: We studied patients hospitalized for any reason with heart failure receiving nurse-led, postdischarge multidisciplinary management. We profiled a matrix of expected comorbidities involving the most common coexisting conditions associated with CHF and examined the relationship between multimorbidity and 30-day all-cause readmission. RESULTS: A total of 830 patients (mean age 73 ± 13 years and 65% men) were assessed. Multimorbidity was common, with an average of 6.6 ± 2.4 comorbid conditions with sex-based differences in prevalence of 4 of 10 conditions. Within 30 days of initial hospitalization, 216 of 830 (26%) patients were readmitted for any reason. Greater multimorbidity was associated with increasing readmission (4%-44% for those with 0-1 to 8-9 morbid conditions; adjusted odds ratio, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.38) for each additional condition. Three distinct classes of patient emerged: class 1-diabetes, metabolic, and mood disorders; class 2-renal impairment; and class 3-low with relatively fewer comorbid conditions. Classes 1 and 2 had higher 30-day readmission than class 3 did (adjusted P < .01 for both comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: These data affirm that multimorbidity is common in adult CHF inpatients and in potentially distinct patterns linked to outcome. Overall, greater multimorbidity is associated with a higher risk of 30-day all-cause readmission despite high-quality multidisciplinary management. More innovative approaches to target-specific clusters of multimorbidity are required to improve health outcomes in affected individuals.

Impact of Nurse-Led, Multidisciplinary Home-Based Intervention on Event-Free Survival Across the Spectrum of Chronic Heart Disease: Composite Analysis of Health Outcomes in 1226 Patients From 3 Randomized Trials.

BACKGROUND: We sought to determine the overall impact of a nurse-led, multidisciplinary home-based intervention (HBI) adapted to hospitalized patients with chronic forms of heart disease of varying types. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospectively planned, combined, secondary analysis of 3 randomized trials (1226 patients) of HBI were compared with standard management. Hospitalized patients presenting with heart disease but not heart failure, atrial fibrillation but not heart failure, and heart failure, as well, were recruited. Overall, 612 and 614 patients, respectively, were allocated to a home visit 7 to 14 days postdischarge by a cardiac nurse with follow-up and multidisciplinary support according to clinical need or standard management. The primary outcome of days-alive and out-of-hospital was examined on an intention-to-treat basis. During 1371 days (interquartile range, 1112-1605) of follow-up, 218 patients died and 17 917 days of hospital stay were recorded. In comparison with standard management, HBI patients achieved significantly prolonged event-free survival (90.1% [95% confidence interval, 88.2-92.0] versus 87.2% [95% confidence interval, 85.1-89.3] days-alive and out-of-hospital; P=0.020). This reflected less all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 0.50-0.88; P=0.005) and unplanned hospital stay (median, 0.22 [interquartile range, 0-1.3] versus 0.36 [0-2.1] days/100 days follow-up; P=0.011). Analyses of the differential impact of HBI on all-cause mortality showed significant interactions (characterized by U-shaped relationships) with age (P=0.005) and comorbidity (P=0.041); HBI was most effective for those aged 60 to 82 years (59%-65% of individual trial cohorts) and with a Charlson Comorbidity Index Score of 5 to 8 (36%-61%). CONCLUSIONS: These data provide further support for the application of postdischarge HBI across the full spectrum of patients being hospitalized for chronic forms of heart disease. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.anzctr.org.au. Unique identifiers: 12610000221055, 12608000022369, 12607000069459.

Better Indigenous Risk stratification for Cardiac Health study (BIRCH) protocol: rationale and design of a cross-sectional and prospective cohort study to identify novel cardiovascular risk indicators in Aboriginal Australian and Torres Strait Islander adults.

BACKGROUND: Of the estimated 10-11 year life expectancy gap between Indigenous (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people) and non-Indigenous Australians, approximately one quarter is attributable to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Risk prediction of CVD is imperfect, but particularly limited for Indigenous Australians. The BIRCH (Better Indigenous Risk stratification for Cardiac Health) project aims to identify and assess existing and novel markers of early disease and risk in Indigenous Australians to optimise health outcomes in this disadvantaged population. It further aims to determine whether these markers are relevant in non-Indigenous Australians. METHODS/DESIGN: BIRCH is a cross-sectional and prospective cohort study of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian adults (≥ 18 years) living in remote, regional and urban locations. Participants will be assessed for CVD risk factors, left ventricular mass and strain via echocardiography, sleep disordered breathing and quality via home-based polysomnography or actigraphy respectively, and plasma lipidomic profiles via mass spectrometry. Outcome data will comprise CVD events and death over a period of five years. DISCUSSION: Results of BIRCH may increase understanding regarding the factors underlying the increased burden of CVD in Indigenous Australians in this setting. Further, it may identify novel markers of early disease and risk to inform the development of more accurate prediction equations. Better identification of at-risk individuals will promote more effective primary and secondary preventive initiatives to reduce Indigenous Australian health disadvantage.

Nurse health and lifestyle modification versus standard care in 40 to 70 year old regional adults: study protocol of the Management to Optimise Diabetes and mEtabolic syndrome Risk reduction via Nurse-led intervention (MODERN) randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MetS), the clustering of multiple leading risk factors, predisposes individuals to increased risk for developing type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease (CVD). Cardio-metabolic disease risk increases with greater remoteness where specialist services are scarce. Nurse-led interventions are effective for the management of chronic disease. The aim of this clinical trial is to determine whether a nurse-implemented health and lifestyle modification program is more beneficial than standard care to reduce cardio-metabolic abnormalities and future risk of CVD and diabetes in individuals with MetS. METHODS: MODERN is a multi-centre, open, parallel group randomized controlled trial in regional Victoria, Australia. Participants were self-selected and individuals aged 40 to 70 years with MetS who had no evidence of CVD or other chronic disease were recruited. Those attending a screening visit with any 3 or more risk factors of central obesity, dyslipidemia (high triglycerides or low high density lipoprotein cholesterol) elevated blood pressure and dysglycemia were randomized to either nurse-led health and lifestyle modification (intervention) or standard care (control). The intervention included risk factor management, health education, care planning and scheduled follow-up commensurate with level of risk. The primary cardio-metabolic end-point was achievement of risk factor thresholds to eliminate MetS or minimal clinically meaningful changes for at least 3 risk factors that characterise MetS over 2 year follow-up. Pre-specified secondary endpoints to evaluate between group variations in cardio-metabolic risk, general health and lifestyle behaviours and new onset CVD and type 2 diabetes will be evaluated. Key outcomes will be measured at baseline, 12 and 24 months via questionnaires, physical examinations, pathology and other diagnostic tests. Health economic analyses will be undertaken to establish the cost-effectiveness of the intervention. DISCUSSION: The MODERN trial will provide evidence for the potential benefit of independent nurse-run clinics in the community and their cost-effectiveness in adults with MetS. Findings will enable more nurse-led clinics to be adopted outside of major cities and encompassing other chronic diseases as a key primary preventative initiative. TRIAL REGISTRATION: MODERN is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ( ACTRN12616000229471 ) on 19 February 2016 (retrospectively registered). Secondary identifiers: MODERN is an investigator-initiated trial funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia from 2014 to 2017 via a Project Grant (ID No. APP1069043) and was approved by the Australian Catholic University Human Research Ethics Committee (Project No: 2014 244 V) and the Department of Health Human Research Ethics Committee (Project No:38/2014) for the release of Medicare claims information.

Standard versus atrial fibrillation-specific management strategy (SAFETY) to reduce recurrent admission and prolong survival: pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients are increasingly being admitted with chronic atrial fibrillation, and disease-specific management might reduce recurrent admissions and prolong survival. However, evidence is scant to support the application of this therapeutic approach. We aimed to assess SAFETY--a management strategy that is specific to atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We did a pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial in patients admitted with chronic, non-valvular atrial fibrillation (but not heart failure). Patients were recruited from three tertiary referral hospitals in Australia. 335 participants were randomly assigned by computer-generated schedule (stratified for rhythm or rate control) to either standard management (n=167) or the SAFETY intervention (n=168). Standard management consisted of routine primary care and hospital outpatient follow-up. The SAFETY intervention comprised a home visit and Holter monitoring 7-14 days after discharge by a cardiac nurse with prolonged follow-up and multidisciplinary support as needed. Clinical reviews were undertaken at 12 and 24 months (minimum follow-up). Coprimary outcomes were death or unplanned readmission (both all-cause), measured as event-free survival and the proportion of actual versus maximum days alive and out of hospital. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTRN 12610000221055). FINDINGS: During median follow-up of 905 days (IQR 773-1050), 49 people died and 987 unplanned admissions were recorded (totalling 5530 days in hospital). 127 (76%) patients assigned to the SAFETY intervention died or had an unplanned readmission (median event-free survival 183 days [IQR 116-409]) and 137 (82%) people allocated standard management achieved a coprimary outcome (199 days [116-249]; hazard ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·76-1·23; p=0·851). Patients assigned to the SAFETY intervention had 99·5% maximum event-free days (95% CI 99·3-99·7), equating to a median of 900 (IQR 767-1025) of 937 maximum days alive and out of hospital. By comparison, those allocated to standard management had 99·2% (95% CI 98·8-99·4) maximum event-free days, equating to a median of 860 (IQR 752-1047) of 937 maximum days alive and out of hospital (effect size 0·22, 95% CI 0·21-0·23; p=0·039). INTERPRETATION: A post-discharge management programme specific to atrial fibrillation was associated with proportionately more days alive and out of hospital (but not prolonged event-free survival) relative to standard management. Disease-specific management is a possible strategy to improve poor health outcomes in patients admitted with chronic atrial fibrillation. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.

A metabolic syndrome severity score: A tool to quantify cardio-metabolic risk factors.

Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of cardio-metabolic risk factors and is associated with increased mortality. There is no standard, validated way to assess the severity of aggregated metabolic syndrome risk factors. Cardiovascular and diabetes risk factor data came from two studies conducted in Australia from 2006 to 2010 in adults aged 18 or above. In medication free adults, sex-specific clinical thresholds and Principal Component Analysis were used to develop a formula to calculate a metabolic syndrome severity score (MetSSS). These scores were compared to scores derived using the same process in subgroups by sex, age, medication status, and time. We also examined the MetSSS in relation to other known risk factors. In 2125 adults (57.6±14.7years of age), the MetSSS ranged from 0 to 8.7 with a mean of 2.6. There were strong correlations (.95-.99) between the MetSSS in medication free adults and the MetSSS calculated from subgroups. MetSSS predicted medication initiation for hypertension, hyperlipidemia and hyperglycemia over six months (OR=1.31, 95% CI [1.00-1.70], per MetSSS unit, p=.043). Lower education, medication prescription, history of smoking and age were associated with higher MetSSS (all p<.05). Higher physical but not mental health quality of life was associated with lower MetSSS (p<.001). A standardized formula to measure cardio-metabolic risk factor severity was constructed and demonstrated expected relations with known risk factors. The use of the MetSSS is recommended as a measure of change within individuals in cardio-metabolic risk factors and to guide treatment and management.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of primary prevention programmes to improve cardio-metabolic risk in non-urban communities.

INTRODUCTION: Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevention programmes have been effective in urban residents, their effectiveness in non-urban settings, where cardio-metabolic risk is typically elevated, is unknown. We systematically reviewed the effectiveness of primary prevention programmes aimed at reducing risk factors for CVD/T2DM, including blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), blood lipid and glucose, diet, lifestyle, and knowledge in adults residing in non-urban areas. METHODS: Twenty-five manuscripts, globally, from 1990 were selected for review (seven included in the meta-analyses) and classified according to: 1) study design (randomised controlled trial [RCT] or pre-/post-intervention); 2) intervention duration (short [<12months] or long term [≥12months]), and; 3) programme type (community-based programmes or non-community-based programmes). RESULTS: Multiple strategies within interventions focusing on health behaviour change effectively reduced cardio-metabolic risk in non-urban individuals. Pre-/post-test design studies showed more favourable improvements generally, while RCTs showed greater improvements in physical activity and disease and risk knowledge. Short-term programmes were more effective than long-term programmes and in pre-/post-test designs reduced systolic blood pressure by 4.02mmHg (95% CI -6.25 to -1.79) versus 3.63mmHg (95% CI -7.34 to 0.08) in long-term programmes. Community-based programmes achieved good results for most risk factors except BMI and (glycated haemoglobin) HbA1c. CONCLUSION: The setting for applying cardio-metabolic prevention programmes is important given its likelihood to influence programme efficacy. Further investigation is needed to elucidate the individual determinants of cardio-metabolic risk in non-urban populations and in contrast to urban populations.

Overcoming the tyranny of distance: An analysis of outreach visits to optimise secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in high-risk individuals living in Central Australia.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the logistical challenges of conducting an outreach, secondary prevention program for adults discharged from Alice Springs Hospital following an acute presentation of cardiovascular disease. DESIGN AND SETTING: This represents a sub-study of the Central Australian Heart Protection Study (CAHPS). Clinical, logistic and demographic data were used to examine the characteristics of outreach visits in the intervention arm of the study. PARTICIPANTS: Fifty subjects initially allocated to the intervention arm of the trial were studied. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Completion of scheduled, plus additional outreach visits according to the intervention protocol. RESULTS: The majority of subjects presented with an acute coronary syndrome (44/50 (88%)) and 31 (62%) were of Indigenous ethnicity. However, Indigenous subjects being younger (53.1 ± 11.1 versus 58.0 ± 11.0 years non-Indigenous) had a more complex risk factor and co-morbid profile, with significantly more diabetes (77% versus 26% P < 0.001), hypertension (81% versus 53% P = 0.04) and renal failure (52% versus 21% P = 0.03). Community of origin of Indigenous subjects was 230 ± 208 km from the hospital versus 61 ± 150 km for non-Indigenous subjects (P = 0.004). Indigenous subjects missed a significantly higher number of scheduled visits at six months (1.39 ± 2.14 versus 0.16 ± 0.50 visits; P = 0.02). However, multivariate analyses suggested that distance did not influence successful completion of visits. CONCLUSIONS: These early findings from CAHPS are invaluable to understanding and improving the feasibility of secondary prevention programs for Indigenous adults living with heart disease in remote communities.

Estimating the current and future prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the Australian adult population.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the current and future prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the Australian adult population according to age and sex. DESIGN: Application of international AF prevalence statistics to Australian adult population data (for people ≥ 55 years) to estimate population prevalence; use of population projections to estimate potential future prevalence of AF. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimated prevalence of AF in 2014 and future prevalence projected to 2034. RESULTS: We estimated that at 30 June 2014 there would be 328,562 cases of AF among people aged ≥ 55 years (a prevalence of 5.35%; 95% CI, 3.79%-7.53%), comprising 174,986 men (prevalence, 5.97%; 95% CI, 4.11%-8.54%) and 153,576 women (prevalence, 4.79%; 95% CI, 3.50%-6.60%). Without significant changes to the natural history of AF, by 2034 this figure is projected to rise to over 600,000 (prevalence, 6.39%; 95% CI, 4.56%-8.90%), with a prevalence of 7.22% among men (95% CI, 4.99%-10.28%) and 5.64% (95% CI, 4.18%-7.64%) among women. The greatest projected regional increase in prevalence between 2014 and 2034 is expected in Queensland, with a likely twofold increase (from 61,613 cases to 123,142 cases), although New South Wales cases will remain predominant, with a 1.7-fold increase (from 110 892 to 191 578). We also predicted that between 2014 and 2034 the number of AF cases would double among older age groups (from 200 638 to 414 377 individuals aged ≥ 75 years) and would increase 2.5-fold among men aged ≥ 85 years (from 29 370 to 71 582). CONCLUSIONS: These data are indicative of a largely underappreciated AF prevalence in Australia. They mandate a more systematic effort to both understand and respond to an evolving AF burden.

An Absolute Risk Prediction Model to Determine Unplanned Cardiovascular Readmissions for Adults with Chronic Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Frequent readmissions are a hallmark of chronic heart failure (CHF). We sought to develop an absolute risk prediction model for unplanned cardiovascular readmissions following hospitalisation for CHF. METHODS: An inception cohort was obtained from the WHICH? trial, a prospective, multi-centre randomised controlled trial which was a head-to-head comparison of the efficacy of a home-based intervention versus clinic-based intervention for adults with CHF. A Cox's proportional hazards model (taking into account the competing risk of death) was used to develop a prediction model. Bootstrap methods were used to identify factors for the final model. Based on these data a nomogram was developed. RESULTS: Of the 280 participants in the WHICH? trial 37 (13%) were readmitted for a cardiovascular event (including CHF) within 28 days, and a further 149 (53%) were readmitted within 18 months for a cardiovascular event. In the proposed competing risk model, factors associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation for CHF were: age (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.90-1.26) for each 10-year increase in age; living alone (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.74-1.59); those with a sedentary lifestyle (HR 1.44, 95% CI, 0.92-2.25) and the presence of multiple co-morbid conditions (HR 1.69, 95% CI 0.38-7.58) for five or more co-morbid conditions (compared to individuals with one documented co-morbidity). The C-statistic of the final model was 0.80. CONCLUSION: We have developed a practical model for individualising the risk of short-term readmission for CHF. This model may provide additional information for targeting and tailoring interventions and requires future prospective evaluation.

Influence of Repeated Plaque Visualization on Cardiovascular Risk Reduction after 3 years; a randomized controlled trial.

AIMS: Helping people to understand their cardiovascular (CV) risk can influence the choices they make for risk reduction, including medication adherence and lifestyle modification. This study sought whether repeated visualization of coronary artery calcium (CAC) images was effective in sustaining long-term risk control in primary prevention, independent of a risk reduction program. METHODS: Asymptomatic, statin-naïve participants, 40-70 years, with a family history of premature coronary artery disease and a CAC score from 1-400 were randomised to a nurse-led CV risk reduction program or standard care with bi-annual reviews. Only the intervention group (220 of 449 participants) visualised their CAC image (with repeat exposure in the first 3 months) and were initiated on statin therapy. The primary outcome was change in Framingham Risk Score (FRS) at 36 months, and the impact of CAC image recall on CV risk was assessed. RESULTS: The reduction in FRS (difference in differences (DID): -3.4% [95%CI: -4.4% to -2.4%], p=<0.001 and low-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol -1.2mmol/L [95%CI: -1.4 to -1.0], p=<0.001)) over 36 months was greater in the intervention than the control group. Within the intervention group, sustained recall of CAC images at 24 months was associated with lower systolic blood pressure (DID -4.3mmHg [95%CI: -7.7 to-0.9], p=0.01) and waist circumference (DID -2.0cm [95% CI: -3.9 to -0.1], p=0.03) at 36 months compared to unsustained recall. CONCLUSION: A nurse-led program, combining personalized patient visualization of CAC imaging with statin therapy, is beneficial for improving CV risk. Recalling the presentation of CAC images through repeated visual exposure may influence risk reduction.

This trial sought to determine whether visualization of coronary artery calcium (CAC) images influences behaviour change and cardiovascular risk reduction within a structured nurse-led program versus standard care. Intervention participants visualized their personalized CAC images within the first three months and commenced statin therapy. Control participants were blinded to their CAC images and were not provided statin therapy. Intervention participants had a greater absolute reduction in the Framingham Risk Score (Difference in differences: -3.4% [95% CI: -4.4% to -2.4%], p=<0.001) compared to controls. Those with sustained recollection of their CAC images within the intervention group also had greater reductions in systolic blood pressure and waist circumference.

Ten-Year Risk Equations for Incident Heart Failure in Established Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Populations.

BACKGROUND: Ten-year risk equations for incident heart failure (HF) are available for the general population, but not for patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), which is highly prevalent in HF cohorts. This study aimed to develop and validate 10-year risk equations for incident HF in patients with known ASCVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ten-year risk equations for incident HF were developed using the United Kingdom Biobank cohort (recruitment 2006-2010) including participants with established ASCVD but free from HF at baseline. Model performance was validated using the Australian Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute Biobank cohort (recruitment 2000-2011) and compared with the performance of general population risk models. Incident HF occurred in 13.7% of the development cohort (n=31 446, median 63 years, 35% women, follow-up 10.7±2.7 years) and in 21.3% of the validation cohort (n=1659, median age 65 years, 25% women, follow-up 9.4±3.7 years). Predictors of HF included in the sex-specific models were age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure (treated or untreated), glucose (treated or untreated), cholesterol, smoking status, QRS duration, kidney disease, myocardial infarction, and atrial fibrillation. ASCVD-HF equations had good discrimination and calibration in development and validation cohorts, with superior performance to general population risk equations. CONCLUSIONS: ASCVD-specific 10-year risk equations for HF outperform general population risk models in individuals with established ASCVD. The ASCVD-HF equations can be calculated from readily available clinical data and could facilitate screening and preventative treatment decisions in this high-risk group.