Mindset × Context: Schools, Classrooms, and the Unequal Translation of Expectations into Math Achievement.

When do adolescents' dreams of promising journeys through high school translate into academic success? This monograph reports the results of a collaborative effort among sociologists and psychologists to systematically examine the role of schools and classrooms in disrupting or facilitating the link between adolescents' expectations for success in math and their subsequent progress in the early high school math curriculum. Our primary focus was on gendered patterns of socioeconomic inequality in math and how they are tethered to the school's peer culture and to students' perceptions of gender stereotyping in the classroom. To do this, this monograph advances Mindset × Context Theory. This orients research on educational equity to the reciprocal influence between students' psychological motivations and their school-based opportunities to enact those motivations. Mindset × Context Theory predicts that a student's mindset will be more strongly linked to developmental outcomes among groups of students who are at risk for poor outcomes, but only in a school or classroom context where there is sufficient need and support for the mindset. Our application of this theory centers on expectations for success in high school math as a foundational belief for students' math progress early in high school. We examine how this mindset varies across interpersonal and cultural dynamics in schools and classrooms. Following this perspective, we ask: 1. Which gender and socioeconomic identity groups showed the weakest or strongest links between expectations for success in math and progress through the math curriculum? 2. How did the school's peer culture shape the links between student expectations for success in math and math progress across gender and socioeconomic identity groups? 3. How did perceptions of classroom gender stereotyping shape the links between student expectations for success in math and math progress across gender and socioeconomic identity groups? We used nationally representative data from about 10,000 U.S. public school 9th graders in the National Study of Learning Mindsets (NSLM) collected in 2015-2016-the most recent, national, longitudinal study of adolescents' mindsets in U.S. public schools. The sample was representative with respect to a large number of observable characteristics, such as gender, race, ethnicity, English Language Learners (ELLs), free or reduced price lunch, poverty, food stamps, neighborhood income and labor market participation, and school curricular opportunities. This allowed for generalization to the U.S. public school population and for the systematic investigation of school- and classroom-level contextual factors. The NSLM's complete sampling of students within schools also allowed for a comparison of students from different gender and socioeconomic groups with the same expectations in the same educational contexts. To analyze these data, we used the Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF) algorithm, a best-in-class machine-learning method for discovering complex, replicable interaction effects. Chapter IV examined the interplay of expectations, gender, and socioeconomic status (SES; operationalized with maternal educational attainment). Adolescents' expectations for success in math were meaningful predictors of their early math progress, even when controlling for other psychological factors, prior achievement in math, and racial and ethnic identities. Boys from low-SES families were the most vulnerable identity group. They were over three times more likely to not make adequate progress in math from 9th to 10th grade relative to girls from high-SES families. Boys from low-SES families also benefited the most from their expectations for success in math. Overall, these results were consistent with Mindset × Context Theory's predictions. Chapters V and VI examined the moderating role of school-level and classroom-level factors in the patterns reported in Chapter IV. Expectations were least predictive of math progress in the highest-achieving schools and schools with the most academically oriented peer norms, that is, schools with the most formal and informal resources. School resources appeared to compensate for lower levels of expectations. Conversely, expectations most strongly predicted math progress in the low/medium-achieving schools with less academically oriented peers, especially for boys from low-SES families. This chapter aligns with aspects of Mindset × Context Theory. A context that was not already optimally supporting student success was where outcomes for vulnerable students depended the most on student expectations. Finally, perceptions of classroom stereotyping mattered. Perceptions of gender stereotyping predicted less progress in math, but expectations for success in math more strongly predicted progress in classrooms with high perceived stereotyping. Gender stereotyping interactions emerged for all sociodemographic groups except for boys from high-SES families. The findings across these three analytical chapters demonstrate the value of integrating psychological and sociological perspectives to capture multiple levels of schooling. It also drew on the contextual variability afforded by representative sampling and explored the interplay of lab-tested psychological processes (expectations) with field-developed levers of policy intervention (school contexts). This monograph also leverages developmental and ecological insights to identify which groups of students might profit from different efforts to improve educational equity, such as interventions to increase expectations for success in math, or school programs that improve the school or classroom cultures.

Teacher Mindsets Help Explain Where a Growth-Mindset Intervention Does and Doesn't Work.

A growth-mindset intervention teaches the belief that intellectual abilities can be developed. Where does the intervention work best? Prior research examined school-level moderators using data from the National Study of Learning Mindsets (NSLM), which delivered a short growth-mindset intervention during the first year of high school. In the present research, we used data from the NSLM to examine moderation by teachers' mindsets and answer a new question: Can students independently implement their growth mindsets in virtually any classroom culture, or must students' growth mindsets be supported by their teacher's own growth mindsets (i.e., the mindset-plus-supportive-context hypothesis)? The present analysis (9,167 student records matched with 223 math teachers) supported the latter hypothesis. This result stood up to potentially confounding teacher factors and to a conservative Bayesian analysis. Thus, sustaining growth-mindset effects may require contextual supports that allow the proffered beliefs to take root and flourish.

Barriers to Bachelor's Degree Completion among College Students with a Disability.

One of the fastest growing groups on college campuses is students with disabilities, but their rates of bachelor's degree completion remain low. We build on research about barriers to degree completion among historically underrepresented groups on college campuses to examine the extent to which academic preparation before college and processes during college contribute to gaps in bachelor's degree completion among four-year college students with a mental or physical disability. Using the Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study, we find that students with a mental disability are significantly less likely to complete a bachelor's degree than students without disabilities and students with a physical disability, net of students' family and academic background. Decomposition of the estimated indirect effect of mental disability on degree completion reveals first-year academic performance as the largest contributor. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications for understanding the barriers faced by college students with a mental disability.

Mental and physical health impairments at the transition to college: Early patterns in the education-health gradient.

Part of the education-health gradient may be related to inequalities in the transition from high school to college by health impairment status. In this paper, we use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to investigate the link between health impairments beginning prior to high school completion and college-going, distinguishing between individuals with mental, physical, or multiple health impairments and between enrollment in 2-year and 4-year postsecondary institutions. We find that individuals with mental impairments or multiple impairments are less likely to initially enroll in 4-year postsecondary institutions than individuals without health impairments, controlling on background and high school preparation. We also find evidence that advanced math course-taking in high school, an important step on the pathway to a 4-year college for all students, does not provide students with mental impairments the same return as students without health impairments. We discuss implications for policy to address educational inequalities in health.

The Roles of Adolescent Occupational Expectations and Preparation in Adult Suicide and Drug Poisoning Deaths within a Shifting Labor Market.

Research suggests that economic declines contribute to mortality risks from suicide and drug poisoning, but how the economy impacts individuals' risks of these deaths has been challenging to specify. Building on recent theoretical advances, we investigate how adolescent occupational expectations and preparation contribute to suicide and drug poisoning deaths in a shifting economy. We use High School and Beyond data linked to adult mortality records for men that were exposed to a decline in labor market share and wages in predominantly blue-collar occupations during early adulthood. We find that adolescent men who expected these occupations had increased risks of suicide and drug poisoning death as adults net of educational and occupational attainment in early adulthood. Family background and occupational preparation are risk factors for death by drug poisoning but not suicide. Our findings improve our understanding of how labor market uncertainty shapes individuals' vulnerability to suicide and drug poisoning death.

Association of Job Expectations Among High School Students With Early Death During Adulthood.

Importance: Deaths from self-injury are increasing. Understanding the sources of risk is important for prevention and treatment. Objective: To estimate the risks of suicide and drug poisoning deaths among adult men whose adolescent occupational expectations were not met in adulthood. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included a sample of men interviewed as part of the High School and Beyond study, a nationally representative study of US high school sophomores and seniors in 1980, who were interviewed every 2 years through 1986; those who were sophomores in 1980 were reinterviewed in 1992. Men who survived to 1992 and reported occupational expectations were included in the present study. Death records prior to 2018 were linked to mortality databases and released in 2019. Data analysis was conducted from May to October 2020. Exposure: Occupational expectations. Main Outcomes and Measures: Survival or death by suicide, drug poisoning, chronic liver disease, heart disease, cancer, or some other cause, categorized from International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and Tenth Revision codes. Competing risk Fine-Gray survival models regressed cause of death on adolescent occupational expectations and covariates. Results: The 11 680 men in the High School and Beyond cohort study had a median (interquartile range) age of 29 (28-30) years in 1992, when the analysis of their future mortality began. Most men survived until 2015 (11 060 [weighted percentage, 95.0%]). Reported causes of death were suicide (60 [weighted percentage, 0.5%]), drug poisoning (40 [weighted percentage, 0.4%]), chronic liver disease (20 [weighted percentage, 0.2%]), heart disease (130 [weighted percentage, 1.0%]), cancer (100 [weighted percentage, 1.0%]), and other (280 [weighted percentage, 2.0%]). Subhazard ratios for death by suicide and drug poisoning were 2.91 (95% CI, 1.07-7.88; P = .04) and 2.62 (95% CI, 1.15-5.94; P = .02) times higher, respectively, among those who in 1980 expected to hold a subbaccalaureate occupation that later declined in labor market share compared with those with professional occupational expectations. The actual job held by men did not attenuate the hazards of deaths from suicide and drug poisoning. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, men whose occupational expectations were not met because of labor market declines were at a higher risk of death from suicide or drug poisoning than men with different occupational expectations. Interventions to mitigate labor market changes should account for individuals' expectational ideals.

Tracking Health Inequalities from High School to Midlife.

Educational gradients in health status, morbidity, and mortality are well established, but which aspects of schooling produce those gradients is only partially understood. We draw on newly available data from the midlife follow-up of the High School and Beyond sophomore cohort to analyze the relationship between students' level of coursework in high school and their long-term health outcomes. We additionally evaluate the mediating roles of skill development, postsecondary attendance and degree attainment, and occupational characteristics. We find that students who took a medium- to high-level course of study in high school have better self-reported health and physical functioning in midlife, even net of family background, adolescent health, baseline skills, and school characteristics. The association partially operates through pathways into postsecondary education. Our findings have implications for both educational policy and research on the educational gradient in health.

Cooling Out Undergraduates with Health Impairments: The Freshman Experience.

Students with health impairments represent a growing sector of the college population, but health based disparities in bachelor's degree completion persist. The classes students pass and the grades they receive during the first year of college provide signals of degree progress and academic fit that shape educational expectations, potentially subjecting students to a cooling out process (Clark 1960). Using the Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS 04/09), we compare signals of degree progress and academic fit and changes in educational expectations between students with and without health impairments during the first year of college. We find that net of academic preparation, type of institution, enrollment intensity and first year experiences, students with mental impairments are more likely to lower their educational expectations after the first year of college, due partially to negative signals of academic fit. We find limited evidence that gaps in learning are related to the use of academic accommodations for students with health impairments. Our results suggest that students with mental impairments are disadvantaged in reaching first year benchmarks of degree progress and academic fit and are disproportionately cooled out.