Design of a Forest Fire Early Alert System through a Deep 3D-CNN Structure and a WRF-CNN Bias Correction.

Throughout the years, wildfires have negatively impacted ecological systems and urban areas. Hence, reinforcing territorial risk management strategies against wildfires is essential. In this study, we built an early alert system (EAS) with two different Machine Learning (ML) techniques to calculate the meteorological conditions of two Colombian areas: (i) A 3D convolutional neural net capable of learning from satellite data and (ii) a convolutional network to bias-correct the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model output. The results were used to quantify the daily Fire Weather Index and were coupled with the outcomes from a land cover analysis conducted through a Naïve-Bayes classifier to estimate the probability of wildfire occurrence. These results, combined with an assessment of global vulnerability in both locations, allow the construction of daily risk maps in both areas. On the other hand, a set of short-term preventive and corrective measures were suggested to public authorities to implement, after an early alert prediction of a possible future wildfire. Finally, Soil Management Practices are proposed to tackle the medium- and long-term causes of wildfire development, with the aim of reducing vulnerability and promoting soil protection. In conclusion, this paper creates an EAS for wildfires, based on novel ML techniques and risk maps.

Oral manifestations associated with inflammatory bowel disease and early endoscopic findings in patients with spondyloarthritis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Spondyloarthritis (SpA) is a group of autoinflammatory disorders, of which the primary extra-articular manifestation is inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The oral cavity being a part of gastrointestinal tract, is significantly compromised in IBD, and in many cases, it is the first site of clinical manifestations of IBD. This study aimed to identify changes in the oral mucosa associated with the onset of IBD and their association with endoscopic/histological findings. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study assessed 80 patients with SpA and 52 healthy controls. Oral, rheumatological, and gastroenterological assessments were performed. The ileocolonoscopy was performed via digital magnification chromoendoscopy. The statistical analysis consisted of Chi-square, Fisher's exact, and multiple correspondence discriminant analysis tests. RESULTS: From the disease cohort, 63.0% patients showed oral lesions (p = 0.050). These manifestations ranged from gingivitis (55.0%, p = 0.001), aphthous stomatitis (3.8%, p = 0.091), angular cheilitis (2.6%, p = 0.200), and perioral erythema with scaling (1.3%, p = 0.300). All patients who presented with alterations in colonic mucosa also had oral lesions associated with IBD (p = 0.039), specifically gingivitis/aphthous stomatitis (p = 0.029). CONCLUSION: The patients with SpA without IBD present significant oral signs and symptoms. Gingivitis seems to be the most relevant because of its associations with early endoscopic and histological findings. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: An integral approach to the diagnostic tests that includes evaluations of oral, rheumatological and gastroenterological tissues may favor timely attention and improve patients' quality of life.

P060 Screening Criteria of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Application in Colombian Patients With Spondyloarthritis.

BACKGROUND: The Spondyloarthritis (SpA) is a group of chronic inflammatory rheumatic diseases, in which 5-10% of extra-articular manifestations are gastrointestinal such as the inflammatory bowel disease. Objective: To apply the clinical criteria for the screening of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in patients with SpA with gastrointestinal symptoms and its association with disease activity and function. METHODS: A Cross-sectional study included 82 patients with SpA, according to ASAS classification criteria without diagnosis of IBD. We applied the Screening criteria for IBD developed by Sanz et al, in the SpA patients. Clinical evaluation by rheumatologist and in patients with ≥ 2 gastrointestinal symptoms clinical evaluation by gastroenterologist and IBD screening criteria were performed. Digital chromoendoscopy, magnification colonoscopy, and histological analysis were performed. Lab tests included, C-reactive protein, sedimentation rate, serum levels of transferrin, ferritin and vitamin B12. The association between clinical variables and colonoscopy and histological variables were evaluated using the Chi-square or Fisher's exact test (Ethical / Cod. 2017-023). RESULTS: Of the 82 individuals evaluated, 58 of them were referred to gastroenterology with a direction to perform colonoscopy with chromeondospia, and 41 of them were able to intervene to whom the IBD screening criteria were applied. 53.7% are men, 7.3% actively smoke. 100% of the population presented some gastrointestinal symptoms, the most frequent being diarrhea of more than 4 weeks in 61%. 68.3% had at least one of the three major criteria. Rectorrhagia was associated with BASFI>4, p=0.050, axial compromise p = 0.043, diagnosis of PsA p = 0.090 and alterations in the architecture of the ileum p=0.034. Diarrhea was associated with ESR> 20, p = 0.050, BASFI>4 p = 0.012. In addition, 70.75 of the patients had at least one of the minor screening criteria associated with higher BASFI levels, p = 0.01. Aphthous stomatitis was reported as extra-intestinal manifestations in 7.3% and abdominal pain in 87.8% of the patients, which was associated with BASDAI>4 p = 0.023, ASDASCRP> 2.1, p = 0.043 and inflammation in the ileum, p = 0.046. No patients with positive iron deficiency anemia were found. However, ferritin alteration was observed in 22% associated with chronic inflammation of the colon, p = 0.042. There were no cases of fever or family history of IBD. Noting that in 17.1% of the cases a decrease in vitamin B12 levels was detected, associated with the presence of ulcers (p = 0.035) and acute inflammation in the ileum, p = 0.032. Weight loss was found in 31.7% of the cases and was associated with smoking history p = 0.039. CONCLUSION: We found a high frequency of major and minor symptoms of IBD, both of which were associated with a high activity of spondyloarthritis and an important functional compromise as well as inflammation markers in this group of patients. The application of the screening criteria for IBD in SpA without IBD reflects a high frequency of intestinal symptoms of sufficient intensity that affect quality of life and disease activity. Early detection of gastrointestinal compromise allows patients to benefit from comprehensive treatment of the disease in its initial stages.

P062 Chromoendoscopy With Magnification Colonoscopy: Analysis of Mucosa of Colon And Ileum In Patients With Gastrointestinal Symptoms Without IBD.

BACKGROUND: Digital chromoendoscopy (Narrow Band Imaging By Olympus) or BLI (Blue Light Imaging By Fujifilm), with the magnification endoscope, allows a detailed evaluation of the mucosal surface and its vascular network, which facilitates the diagnosis and monitoring of early lesions. This technique has demonstrated a better detection, which allows optical diagnosis during a colonoscopy examination. Patients with SpA with nonspecific gastrointestinal symptoms, subclinical intestinal inflammation are defined as endoscopic and histologically. The aim was to detect early structural inflammatory changes by chromoendoscopy and magnification colonoscopy in colonic/ileum digestive mucosa, and establish its association with clinical variables in SpA and gastrointestinal symptoms. Study approved by Institutional Ethics Committee, code HMC 2017-023. METHODS: Clinical evaluation by rheumatologist in SpA patients (ASAS/criteria), fecal calprotectin levels, and HLA-B*27 were evaluated. In patients with ≥2 gastrointestinal symptoms, clinical evaluation by gastroenterologist, digital chromoendoscopy (NBI) or (BLI), magnification colonoscopy, and histological analysis were performed. The association between clinical and colonoscopy variables were established using the Chi-square or Fisher's exact test. RESULTS: In total, 62 SpA patients were included, with mean age of 45.1 ± 11.3 years, axial SpA (77.4%) peripheral SpA (12.9%), biological treatment (69.4%), ASDAS-CRP>2,1 (67.7%), presence of HLA-B*27 (41.9%). Patients with ≥2 gastrointestinal symptoms were found in 67.7%. The most important symptoms were abdominal pain (66.1%), abdominal distension (64.5%), and food intolerance (59.7%). 22.6% of patients showed high level of calprotectin. In those patients with gastrointestinal symptoms, chromoendoscopy and magnification colonoscopy were performed. The mean age of those patients was 45.4 ± 10.5, 57.6% were male, BMI>25 in 69.7%, presence of HLA-B*27 in 39.4%, 33.3% were former smokers, axial SpA in 84.8% and ASDAS-CRP>21 in 78.8%. In total, 27.27% of the patients presented high levels of calprotectin, of which 66.0% had more than two gastrointestinal symptoms (p = 0.015). 77.8% presented alterations in ileal mucosa (p=0.060). The most frequent alteration was the loss of vascular pattern (p = 0.002). By histological analysis, 5 patients had acute inflammation in the ileum, of which 4 had increased levels of fecal calprotectin (p = 0.013). 30.8% of patients positive for HLAB*27:05:02 had ulcers in ileum (p = 0.017) and 61.5% had chronic inflammatory patterns (p=0.020). CONCLUSION: Chromoendoscopy provided an enhanced, detailed contrast of the gastrointestinal mucosa surface, mainly in the loss of vascular pattern in ileum. The active search for symptoms, signs, and biomarkers of gastrointestinal involvement in addition to an objective endoscopic and histological evaluation may offer new perspectives at the evaluation of SpA patients and may provide guidance for specific clinical and therapeutic management.

P050 Oral Inflammatory Changes Associated With Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Spondyloarthritis Associated With Early Endoscopic Findings.

BACKGROUND: Spondyloarthritis (SpA) is a heterogeneous group of chronic autoinflammatory disorders that can present extra-articular gastrointestinal manifestations. Among them is mainly inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Although IBD mainly affects the intestinal tract, it can include early manifestations evident in the oral cavity. No comparative data on these oral manifestations in patients with SpA were found in the literature. OBJECTIVE: To identify oral clinical manifestations due to changes in the oral mucosa associated with IBD in patients with SpA without a diagnosis of IBD and associate them with endoscopic and histological findings. METHODS: 80 patients with SpA and 52 healthy controls were evaluated. They were assessed intra- and extra-orally, following the modified World Health Organization guideline. In addition, by clinical parameters of rheumatological, gastrointestinal and laboratory activity. Ileocolonoscopy was performed with digital chromoendoscopy with magnification and histological analysis. Comparative analyzes were performed by Chi square tests, Fisher's exact tests, confirmed by univariate regression and discriminant analysis of multiple correspondences. Institutional ethics committee approval cod-2017-023. RESULTS: The patients with SpA had 56% male gender, mean age of 42.8 years (SD ± 10.4) and a BMI in the range of 23.9 - 28.4. The healthy controls, 54% of the male gender with an average age of 41 years (SD ± 13.6) and a body mass index-BMI in the range of 22.9 - 27.6. The patients reported smoking only in 6.2%, however as a smoking history in 31% and passive smokers (15%), the majority employed (41%), married (56%) and professionals (49%). Of the healthy controls, they smoked (15%), with a history of smoking (31%), passive smokers (21%), the majority employed (77%), with their own home (67%), and professionals (54%). The patients with SpA reported a greater presence of some signs and symptoms of gastrointestinal origin 69%, while in the controls it was 7.7% (p = 0.001). Forty one of them were referred to colonoscopy with magnification being in 17.1 % changes in the mucosa of the rectum and in the same frequency changes in the mucosa of the sigmoid colon. Regarding the ileum, changes in the mucosa were evidenced in 41.5% of the cases. The presence of oral lesions was evident and predominated in them (63%) compared to controls p = 0.050. The main oral lesions associated with IBD were gingivitis (55%) (p = 0.001), followed by aphthous stomatitis (3.8%), angular cheilitis (2.6%) and perioral erythema with scaling (1.3%). 100% of the patients who presented alteration of the colonic mucosa presented oral lesions associated with IBD (p = 0039), which was also significantly associated with the presence of gingivitis/aphthous stomatitis (p = 0.029). CONCLUSION: Patients with SpA without a diagnosis of IBD have more oral signs and symptoms compared to healthy controls. Gingivitis is important given its association with early endoscopic and histological findings. Manifestations in the oral cavity can precede intestinal manifestations, therefore the clinical assessment by the oral pathologist in conjunction with gastroenterology and rheumatology allows a timely referral to gastroenterology and an endoscopic and histological evaluation, impacting the quality of life of patients.

[HLA genotypes associated with gastrointestinal symptoms in patients with spondyloarthritis without inflammatory bowel disease]. / Genotipos HLA asociados a síntomas gastrointestinales en pacientes con espondiloartritis sin enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to establish the association between HLA-A, B, DR genotypes and gastrointestinal variables in patients with SpA without inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). METHODS: Retrospective study of 91 patients with SpA and 401 healthy controls, with typing by Illumina Sequencing/PacBio and LIFECODES HLA-PCR/SSO multiplex sequencing technology. The presence of gastrointestinal symptoms was evaluated by administering a survey, and those who presented 2 or more symptoms were taken for clinical evaluation by rheumatology and gastroenterology, colonoscopy and histopathological study. (Ethics committee approval). RESULTS: The 59,3% of the patients were men, with a mean age of 43,9±11.4 years; 80,2% were classified as ankylosing spondylitis. 14, 28 and 19 genotypes for the HLA-A*, HLA-B* and HLA-DR* loci were identified in both groups, of which a relationship with gastrointestinal symptoms was identified: A*26, A*29 and B*27 were associated to abdominal pain, DRB1*11 and DRB1*16 with abdominal distention, A*30, B*38, DRB1*13 and DRB1*14 with weight loss, B*40 with diarrhea >4 weeks, and presence of mucus in the stools with A*02 and DRB1*11 (p<0.05). Furthermore, the presence of B*15 had a statistical relationship with intolerance to some food, highlighting the B*27 genotype in relation to grains and dairy products, A*23 with grains, vegetables and meats, and B*49 with vegetables and dairy (p<0.05). Regarding the endoscopic variables, macroscopic changes were found in the ileum mucosa related to A*02, B*48, DRB1*14 and the relationship between B*27 and ulcers at this level should be highlighted. Macroscopic changes in the sigmoid colon with B*48 and the rectum with A*30. In microscopic changes, inflammatory alterations of the ileum are mentioned with genotypes DRB1*07, DRB1*13 and DRB1*14, a genotype that is related to changes in the ileum both endoscopically and histologically (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate a potential genetic predisposition related to HLA genotypes that may increase the likelihood of food intolerance, gastrointestinal symptoms, and even visible and microscopic changes, specifically in the ileal tissue. The study highlights the presence of B*27 and other noteworthy HLA class I and class II genes (such as DRB1*14) in the diverse Colombian population.

OBJETIVO: Establecer la asociación entre genotipos HLA-A, B, DR y variables gastrointestinales en pacientes con EspA, sin enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal (EII). MÉTODOS: Estudio retrospectivo de 91 pacientes con EspA y 401 controles sanos, con tipificación por tecnología de secuenciación Illumina Sequencing/PacBio, y LIFECODES HLA-PCR/SSO multiplex. Se evaluó la presencia de síntomas gastrointestinales por aplicación de una encuesta, y, aquellos que presentaran dos o más síntomas, fueron llevados a valoración clínica por reumatología y gastroenterología, colonoscopia y estudio histopatológico. (Aprobación del Comité de Ética, HMC, 2022 - 2020). RESULTADOS: El 59,3% de los pacientes fueron hombres, con edad media de 43,9 ± 11,4 años. El 80,2% se clasificó como espondilitis anquilosante. Se identificaron en ambos grupos 14, 28 y 19 genotipos para los loci HLA-A*, HLA-B* y HLA-DR*, de los cuales se identificó relación con síntomas gastrointestinales: A*26, A*29 y B*27, con dolor abdominal; DRB1*11 y DRB1*16, con distensión abdominal; A*30, B*38, DRB1*13 y DRB1*14, con pérdida de peso; B*40, con diarrea >4 semanas y presencia de moco en las deposiciones con A*2 y DRB1*11 (p<0,05). Además, la presencia de B*15, tuvo relación estadística con intolerancia a algún tipo de alimento, a resaltar el genotipo B*27, en relación con granos y lácteos; A*23 con granos, verduras y carnes; y el B*49, con verduras y lácteos (p<0,05). Frente a las variables endoscópicas, se encontraron cambios macroscópicos en la mucosa de íleon relacionados con A*02, B*48, DRB1*14 y, a destacar, la relación B*27 con úlceras a este nivel. Cambios macroscópicos en colon sigmoides con B*48 y en recto con A*30. En cambios microscópicos, se mencionan alteraciones inflamatorias de íleon con genotipos DRB1*07, DRB1*13 y DRB1*14, genotipos que se relaciona a cambios en íleon tanto endoscópica e histológicamente (p<0,05). CONCLUSIONES: Estos resultados sugieren una posible susceptibilidad genética asociada al HLA, con genotipos que pueden predisponer a intolerancia alimentaria, síntomas gastrointestinales, e incluso, a cambios macroscópicos e histológicos, particularmente en tejido de íleon, entre los cuales está presente el B*27, pero resaltan otros interesantes en HLA clase I, como clase II (DRB1*14), en una población de alto mestizaje como la colombiana.

[Faecal microbiota study reveals specific dysbiosis in spondyloarthritis according to subtype, disease activity and treatment]. / Estudio de microbiota fecal revela disbiosis específica en espondiloartritis, según subtipo, actividad de la enfermedad y tratamiento.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the diversity and composition of the gastrointestinal microbiome of patients with SpA. METHODS: MiSeq sequencing of the V3-V4 region of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene was performed on DNA isolated from stool. Patients with concurrent SpA and IBD were excluded. Differences were assessed for richness and diversity indices by QIIME 2™. Differences between means >0,2% with a p-value<0,05 were assumed significant. Institutional Ethics Committee endorsement. RESULTS: 69 individuals included, 49 with SpA (ankylosing spondylitis-AS 72,9%, psoriatic arthritis-PsA 18,8%, reactive arthritis-ReA 8,3%) 5 positive controls-dysbiosis and 15 controls-eubiosis. Conventional treatment in 42,9%, anti-IL-17 16,3% and anti-TNF 40,8%. By subtype, statistically significant differences in favour of AS were found for the diversity indices. AS vs PsA there was a difference in favour of AS for Clostridium clostridioforme (p=0,002), Gemmiger formicilis (p=0,009), Roseburia inulivorans (p=0,008) and Lachnospira pectinoschiza. AS vs ReA there was a difference in favour of AS for L. pectinoschiza (p=0,009), Ruminococcus callidus (p=0.006), Clostridium ruminantium (p=0.031); G. formicilis (p=0,034). Diversity and richness showed differences in patients with high activity for Simpson's and Pielou's indices. In high activity, lower enrichment of Bacteroides eggerthii (p= 0,0003), C. ruminantium (p= 0,026) and Alistipes putredinis (p=0,035) was found. The number of ASV was higher in the anti-IL-17 vs conventional group (p=0.025) and a trend between anti-IL-17 vs anti-TNF (p=0.09). In anti-TNF there was a lower proportion for C. clostridioforme (p=0.023), G. formicilis (p=0.030) and R. callidus (p= 0.003). In anti IL-17, Alistipes indistinctus (p= 0.012) was decreased. CONCLUSIONS: There are differences in microbial diversity for SpA subtypes. The level of disease activity is plausible to influence the composition of the faecal microbiota. Anti-TNFα treatment may influence the microbiome environment favouring restoration of the gut microbiota, while anti-IL-17 may maintain an inflammatory environment.

OBJETIVO: Comparar la diversidad y composición del microbioma gastrointestinal de pacientes con EspA. MÉTODOS: La secuenciación MiSeq de la región V3-V4 del gen ARN ribosomal 16, se realizó en ADN aislado de heces. Se excluyeron pacientes con EspA y EII simultánea. Se evaluaron diferencias para los índices de riqueza y diversidad por medio de QIIME 2™. Las diferencias entre medias> 0,2%, con un valor de p< 0,05, se asumieron significativas. Aval del Comité de Ética Institucional. RESULTADOS: 69 individuos incluidos, 49 con EspA (espondilitis anquilosante-EA 72,9%, artritis psoriásica-APs 18,8%, artritis reactiva-ARe 8,3%), cinco controles positivos-disbiosis y 15 controles-eubiosis. El tratamiento convencional en 42,9%, anti-IL-17 16,3%, y anti-TNF 40,8%. Por subtipo-EasP, se encontraron diferencias estadísticamente significativas a favor de EA para los índices de diversidad. Entre EA vs APs, hubo diferencia a favor de EA para Clostridium clostridioforme (p=0,002), Gemmiger formicilis (p=0,009), Roseburia inulivorans (p=0,008) y Lachnospira pectinoschiza. Entre EA vs ARe hubo diferencia a favor de EA para L. pectinoschiza (p=0,009), Ruminococcus callidus (p = 0,006), Clostridium ruminantium (p=0,031); G. formicilis (p=0,034). La diversidad y riqueza mostraron diferencias en pacientes con alta actividad para los índices de Simpson y Pielou. En alta actividad, se encontró menor enriquecimiento de Bacteroides eggerthii (p=0,0003), C. ruminantium (p= 0,026) y Alistipes putredinis (p= 0,035). El número de ASV fue superior en el grupo de anti IL-17 vs convencional (p=0.025), y una tendencia entre anti IL-17 vs anti-TNF (p=0,09). En anti TNF hubo menor proporción para C. clostridioforme (p=0,023), G. formicilis (p=0,030) y R. callidus (p= 0,003). Y en anti IL-17, Alistipes indistinctus (p= 0,012), estuvo disminuida. CONCLUSIONES: Existen diferencias en la diversidad microbiana para los subtipos de EspA. El nivel de actividad de la enfermedad es plausible para influir en la composición de microbiota fecal. El tratamiento con anti-TNFα, puede influenciar el ambiente del microbioma favoreciendo la restauración de la microbiota intestinal, mientras los anti IL-17 podrían mantener un ambiente inflamatorio.

Design of an energy vulnerability index - spatial and temporal analysis: case of study Colombia.

Climate change might affect energy production and therefore the energy security of a country or region. This situation may impact renewable energy sources such as hydro power, leading to consequences on energy transition strategies. This might be critical in sensitive regions to climate change, one of them being the Caribe and northern South America. Since there are numerous energy systems based on sensitive technologies worldwide, it is necessary to introduce techniques to analyze the effects of climate change on different possible energy transition paths. The goal of this study is to develop and assess a method to analyze one of the most critical effects faced by climate change for societies worldwide: the sensitivity of the energy systems to climate change. This is especially critical in developing countries, in locations where temperatures will strongly increase in the following years. To assess this effect, this study proposes a vulnerability index (VI) to evaluate the vulnerability of an on-grid electricity system to climate change at the national and regional scales. This index was assessed using a Monte-Carlo method for uncertainty. The case of Colombia, a country with a system based on hydropower (> 70%) is used to illustrate the method. VI is based on variables related to climate change, the energy matrix, and vulnerability. Results show that the regions with the larger vulnerability correspond to the more energy-demanding ones. The VI for these regions is greater than 50% of the maximum possible vulnerability; meanwhile, the vulnerability of the whole country was estimated as 43%.

Surface, satellite ozone variations in Northern South America during low anthropogenic emission conditions: a machine learning approach.

2020 presented the ideal conditions for studying the air quality response to several emission reductions due to the COVID-19 lockdowns. Numerous studies found that the tropospheric ozone increased even in lockdown conditions, but its reasons are not entirely understood. This research aims to better understand the ozone variations in Northern South America. Satellite and reanalysis data were used to analyze regional ozone variations. An analysis of two of the most polluted Colombian cities was performed by quantifying the changes of ozone and its precursors and by doing a machine learning decomposition to disentangle the contributions that precursors and meteorology made to form O3. The results indicated that regional ozone increased in most areas, especially where wildfires are present. Meteorology is associated with favorable conditions to promote wildfires in Colombia and Venezuela. Regarding the local analysis, the machine learning ensemble shows that the decreased titration process associated with the NO plummeting owing to mobility reduction is the main contributor to the O3 increase (≈50%). These tools lead to conclude that (i) the increase in O3 produced by the reduction of the titration process that would be associated with an improvement in mobile sources technology has to be considered in the new air quality policies, (ii) a boost in international cooperation is essential to control wildfires since an event that occurs in one country can affect others and (iii) a machine learning decomposition approach coupled with sensitivity experiments can help us explain and understand the physicochemical mechanism that drives ozone formation. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11869-023-01303-6.

Adipokine Profile on Joint and Periodontal Conditions in First-degree Relatives of Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a systemic autoimmune disease characterized by joint inflammation and destruction. OBJECTIVE: Establish the association between Porphyromonas gingivalis (P. gingivalis) infection, body mass index (BMI), joint involvement, and serum adipokines in first-degree relatives (FDR) of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: The cross-sectional study evaluated 124 FDR and 124 healthy controls (HC). The clinical examination included joint and radiographic evaluation and calculation of BMI. Serum adipokine levels were measured (leptin, vaspin, adiponectin, resistin, and adipsin), as were the erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, and anti-citrullinated protein antibodies. Investigations were performed to detect P. gingivalis, and anti-P. gingivalis antibodies. Statistical analyses were performed to confirm associations. RESULTS: Leptin levels in FDR were associated with BMI >25 (OR, 2.64; 95%CI, 1.17-5.97; P=0.019), radiographic damage (Simple Erosion Narrowing Score [SENS])/hands, total SENS, and joint space narrowing in feet (P=0.037, 0.026, 0.020, respectively). FDR had more tender joints (P=0.018); this finding was associated with high levels of leptin and resistin and low levels of adipsin (P=0.040, 0.040, and 0.019, respectively). The presence of P. gingivalis was related to FDR, low levels of adipsin, resistin, adiponectin, and a trend toward higher levels of leptin (P=0.002, 0.001, 0.003, and 0.060, respectively), whereas anti-P. gingivalis antibodies were related to low levels of adipsin (P=0.001). CONCLUSION: In FDR, serum adipokine levels were associated with overweight and the presence of P. gingivalis. Adipokine levels were also associated with joint involvement. Hence, adipokines may be involved in the pathogenesis of RA in FDR and warrant further investigation.

Differential gut microbiome in spondyloarthritis patients associated to Blastocystis colonization.

The role of Blastocystis in intestinal health is an open controversy, and little is known about the potential effect of this microorganism in autoinflammatory diseases such as spondyloarthritis (SpA). Here, we analyzed the gut microbiome of 36 SpA patients and 13 control individuals and demonstrated that the richness, diversity, and taxonomic composition between these two groups are different. We also showed that colonization by Blastocystis in control individuals increases the richness and diversity of the intestinal microbiome, whereas in SpA patients, it does not seem to have any impact. This may reflect a potential role of Blastocystis in sculpting the gut microbiome architecture in control individuals, whereas in subjects with SpA, the modulation of the microbiome may be governed by disease-dependent factors that cannot be overcome by Blastocystis. Regarding taxonomic characterization, SpA patients colonized by Blastocystis showed significant increases in the phylum Pseudomonadota, class Gammaproteobacteria, family Succinivibrionaceae, and genus Succinivibrio. Simultaneously, there were significant increases in the class Bacilli, order Lactobacillales, families Lactobacillaceae and Clostridiaceae, and genera Lactobacillus and Clostridium in non-colonized SpA patients. On the other hand, PICRUSt analysis in Blastocystis-positive SpA patients showed elevations in pathways that may enhance antioxidant capacities and alleviate intestinal inflammation, while Blastocystis-negative SpA patients showed significant changes in pathways that promote cell division/proliferation and can lead to larger changes in the gut microbiome. Our analyses lead us to believe that these changes in the gut microbiome of SpA patients may trigger protective mechanisms as an initial response to inflammation in an attempt to restore balance in the intestinal environment.

High Levels of Leptin and Adipsin Are Associated with Clinical Activity in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients with Overweight and Periodontal Infection.

Adipokines are associated with the pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and are potential biomarkers of disease activity, periodontitis, and obesity. The aim of this was to establish the association between adipokine profile, RA disease activity, body mass index, and periodontal infection. This study evaluated 51 patients with early-RA and 51 controls including serum rheumatological markers, adipokine levels, detection of Porphyromonas gingivalis and serum anti-Porphyromonas gingivalis antibodies, clinical and periodontal measurements. Statistical analyses were run with SPSS® V26, with a logistic regression model to confirm associations. The results show high levels of leptin were more frequent in patients (p = 0.001) who simultaneously showed a higher frequency of Porphyromonas gingivalis (p = 0.004). Patients with concomitant presence of Porphyromonas gingivalis, high clinical activity score, and overweight were correlated with high levels of leptin (OR, 7.20; 95% CI, 2.68-19.33; p = 0.0001) and adipsin (OR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.00-7.28; p = 0.005). The conclusion is that high levels of leptin and adipsin are associated with greater clinical activity in early-RA patients with overweight and periodontal infection, whereby overweight and Porphyromonas gingivalis may enhance RA activity. This may represent a pathological mechanism between these conditions, where adipokines seem to have a key role.

Implementation of screening criteria for inflammatory bowel disease in patients with spondyloarthritis and its association with disease and endoscopic activity.

There is little literature on the implementation of screening criteria for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in patients with spondyloarthritis (SpA). This study aimed to apply IBD screening criteria in a group of patients with SpA without IBD diagnosis and correlate them to endoscopic findings and disease activity. A total of 82 patients with SpA were included. The IBD screening test and ileocolonoscopy with digital chromoendoscopy with magnification and histological analysis were performed. The data were analysed with Chi-square test/Fisher's exact test and multiple correspondence analysis. The major screening criteria found in 48.7% of the patients were associated with a history of infection (p = 0.037). Rectal bleeding was associated with the diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis, acute inflammation, enthesitis and tissue architecture alteration in the ileum (p < 0.050). Diarrhoea was associated with a higher disease activity score (p = 0.02). Minor screening criteria were associated with painful inflammatory joint (p = 0.05), high disease activity score (p = 0.001) and high calprotectin levels (p = 0.050). Abdominal pain (36.9%) was associated with axial/peripheral compromise (p = 0.017), inflammatory back pain (p = 0.01), enthesitis (p = 0.021), higher disease activity score (p = 0.023) and acute ileum inflammation (p = 0.046). Diarrhoea of 4 weeks and abdominal pain were the most prevalent major and minor screening criteria, respectively, being related to early manifestations of inflammatory bowel compromise and higher disease activity score. This screening test grants a chance of opportune referral of SpA patients from rheumatology to gastroenterology.

Spatio-temporal analysis of PM2.5 and policies in Northwestern South America.

This paper analyzes the spatio-temporal variations, and exceedances of the PM2.5 concentrations in Northwestern South America at different scales to assess the implemented policies and identify the involved phenomena. Through reanalysis and ground-based data, we found that high PM2.5 levels in most cities of the region are caused by wildfires and local emissions, including the capital cities of Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, and Panamá. In-situ measurements suggest that the majority of the cities comply with the local but not with the WHO guidelines, indicating that local annual limits should be more restrictive. Two peaks in the daily variations of PM2.5 (related to vehicle emissions) and also a steeper decrease around noon (associated with an increase in wind speed and in the boundary layer height) were identified. The trend-analysis shows that Bogotá and Medellín have a decreasing PM2.5 annual-trend (between -0.8µgm-3 and -1.7µgm-3) that corresponds to effective policies. In contrast, Cali has a positive annual-trend (0.8µgm-3) most likely because of Short-Range Transport produced by a northerly-flow from a highly polluted neighboring city, which also affects Cali's PM2.5 diurnal cycle, or by local-dynamics. The exceedances show that the policies are working on an annual but not at a daily time-scale. These results serve as a first input for additional studies, with the aim of gaining a better understanding of the contaminant before adapting current policies or implementing new policies and measures that need to include a joint international, regional, and inter-city efforts regarding pollution transport.

Decreased fecal calprotectin levels in Spondyloarthritis patients colonized by Blastocystis spp.

Spondyloarthritis (SpA) is a group of chronic inflammatory systemic diseases mainly characterized by inflammation in the spine and/or peripheral joints. Although a link between SpA-pathogenesis, intestinal inflammation and gut dysbiosis has been proposed, studies have been focused on bacteria-host interactions and very little has been reported regarding intestinal parasites. Here, intestinal parasitic infection of 51 SpA-patients were evaluated and compared to healthy control individuals. No significant differences in the frequency of any parasite between SpA-patients and control individuals were found. Significantly higher levels of fecal calprotectin (FCP) were found in the SpA-patients compared to the control individuals. However, FCP levels were the same when comparing SpA-patients and control individuals, both colonized by Blastocystis spp. On the other hand, when comparing Blastocystis spp. colonized and Blastocystis spp. free SpA-patients, FCP levels were significantly higher in those Blastocystis spp. free. Without ignoring the small sample size as a study limitation, the results showed that in the SpA-patients colonized by Blastocystis spp., the FCP levels were significantly lower than those in the Blastocystis spp. free group and comparable to those in the control group. These findings seem to suggest a relationship between Blastocystis spp. and intestinal inflammation in SpA-patients, but studies intended to explore that interaction specifically should be designed.

Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and population densities has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to quantify the extent to which climate change will influence the length of the transmission season and estimate the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, given different population densities across an altitudinal gradient. METHODS: Using a multi-model multi-scenario framework, we estimated changes in the length of the transmission season and global population at risk of malaria and dengue for different altitudes and population densities for the period 1951-99. We generated projections from six mosquito-borne disease models, driven by four global circulation models, using four representative concentration pathways, and three shared socioeconomic pathways. FINDINGS: We show that malaria suitability will increase by 1·6 additional months (mean 0·5, SE 0·03) in tropical highlands in the African region, the Eastern Mediterranean region, and the region of the Americas. Dengue suitability will increase in lowlands in the Western Pacific region and the Eastern Mediterranean region by 4·0 additional months (mean 1·7, SE 0·2). Increases in the climatic suitability of both diseases will be greater in rural areas than in urban areas. The epidemic belt for both diseases will expand towards temperate areas. The population at risk of both diseases might increase by up to 4·7 additional billion people by 2070 relative to 1970-99, particularly in lowlands and urban areas. INTERPRETATION: Rising global mean temperature will increase the climatic suitability of both diseases particularly in already endemic areas. The predicted expansion towards higher altitudes and temperate regions suggests that outbreaks can occur in areas where people might be immunologically naive and public health systems unprepared. The population at risk of malaria and dengue will be higher in densely populated urban areas in the WHO African region, South-East Asia region, and the region of the Americas, although we did not account for urban-heat island effects, which can further alter the risk of disease transmission. FUNDING: UK Space Agency, Royal Society, UK National Institute for Health Research, and Swedish Research Council.

A global observational analysis to understand changes in air quality during exceptionally low anthropogenic emission conditions.

This global study, which has been coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO/GAW) programme, aims to understand the behaviour of key air pollutant species during the COVID-19 pandemic period of exceptionally low emissions across the globe. We investigated the effects of the differences in both emissions and regional and local meteorology in 2020 compared with the period 2015-2019. By adopting a globally consistent approach, this comprehensive observational analysis focuses on changes in air quality in and around cities across the globe for the following air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, PMC (coarse fraction of PM), NO2, SO2, NOx, CO, O3 and the total gaseous oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) during the pre-lockdown, partial lockdown, full lockdown and two relaxation periods spanning from January to September 2020. The analysis is based on in situ ground-based air quality observations at over 540 traffic, background and rural stations, from 63 cities and covering 25 countries over seven geographical regions of the world. Anomalies in the air pollutant concentrations (increases or decreases during 2020 periods compared to equivalent 2015-2019 periods) were calculated and the possible effects of meteorological conditions were analysed by computing anomalies from ERA5 reanalyses and local observations for these periods. We observed a positive correlation between the reductions in NO2 and NOx concentrations and peoples' mobility for most cities. A correlation between PMC and mobility changes was also seen for some Asian and South American cities. A clear signal was not observed for other pollutants, suggesting that sources besides vehicular emissions also substantially contributed to the change in air quality. As a global and regional overview of the changes in ambient concentrations of key air quality species, we observed decreases of up to about 70% in mean NO2 and between 30% and 40% in mean PM2.5 concentrations over 2020 full lockdown compared to the same period in 2015-2019. However, PM2.5 exhibited complex signals, even within the same region, with increases in some Spanish cities, attributed mainly to the long-range transport of African dust and/or biomass burning (corroborated with the analysis of NO2/CO ratio). Some Chinese cities showed similar increases in PM2.5 during the lockdown periods, but in this case, it was likely due to secondary PM formation. Changes in O3 concentrations were highly heterogeneous, with no overall change or small increases (as in the case of Europe), and positive anomalies of 25% and 30% in East Asia and South America, respectively, with Colombia showing the largest positive anomaly of ~70%. The SO2 anomalies were negative for 2020 compared to 2015-2019 (between ~25 to 60%) for all regions. For CO, negative anomalies were observed for all regions with the largest decrease for South America of up to ~40%. The NO2/CO ratio indicated that specific sites (such as those in Spanish cities) were affected by biomass burning plumes, which outweighed the NO2 decrease due to the general reduction in mobility (ratio of ~60%). Analysis of the total oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) showed that primary NO2 emissions at urban locations were greater than the O3 production, whereas at background sites, OX was mostly driven by the regional contributions rather than local NO2 and O3 concentrations. The present study clearly highlights the importance of meteorology and episodic contributions (e.g., from dust, domestic, agricultural biomass burning and crop fertilizing) when analysing air quality in and around cities even during large emissions reductions. There is still the need to better understand how the chemical responses of secondary pollutants to emission change under complex meteorological conditions, along with climate change and socio-economic drivers may affect future air quality. The implications for regional and global policies are also significant, as our study clearly indicates that PM2.5 concentrations would not likely meet the World Health Organization guidelines in many parts of the world, despite the drastic reductions in mobility. Consequently, revisions of air quality regulation (e.g., the Gothenburg Protocol) with more ambitious targets that are specific to the different regions of the world may well be required.

Implementation and evaluation of WRF simulation over a city with complex terrain using Alos-Palsar 0.4 s topography.

Air quality modeling requires an accurate representation of meteorology, and in cities with complex topography, the performance of meteorological modeling can be improved by using an alternative global digital elevation model (GDEM) such as Alos-Palsar 0.4 s instead of the default elevation data. Bogotá is a city with complex topography geographically located over the Andes Mountains at 2600 m.a.s.l. A reliable meteorological simulation model is critical for performing a suitable air quality modeling in any case of study. Previous researches have been developed using the standard Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) topography (GTOPO 30 s). These studies have been developed with different configurations for the representation of meteorology. The aim of this study is to evaluate Alos-Palsar 0.4 s topography with WRF, and two domain configurations with horizontal spatial resolutions up to 1000 m, to establish a reliable and accurate way to simulate the meteorology in the city of Bogotá. The evaluation quantitative parameters: IOA, r (Pearson), RMSE, MGE, and MB were calculated for the quantitative evaluation of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and solar radiation. An additional evaluation using Taylor diagrams was performed. Spatial differences were identified in the same locations as well the differences between the elevation from Alos-Palsar 0.4 s and GTOPO30. The results and evaluation suggest that simulations based on Alos-Palsar 0.4 s topography lead to a significant improvement in the meteorology representation by WRF in a region with complex topography such as Bogotá, Colombia.

Validation of PM10 and PM2.5 early alert in Bogotá, Colombia, through the modeling software WRF-CHEM.

Air quality data from Bogotá, Colombia, show high levels of particulate matter (PM), which often generate respiratory problems to the population and a high economic cost to the government. Since 2016, air quality in the city of Bogotá has been measured through the Bogota Air Quality Index (IBOCA) which works as an indicator of environmental risk due to air pollution. However, available technological tools in Bogotá are not enough to generate early alerts due to PM10 and PM2.5. Currently, alerts are only announced once the measured PM values exceed a certain standard (e.g., 37 µ g/m3), but not with enough anticipation to efficiently protect the population. It is necessary to develop an early air quality alert in Bogotá, in order to provide information that improves risk management protocols in the capital district. The purpose of this investigation is to validate the corrective alert presented on the 14th and 15th of February of 2019, through the WRF-Chem model under different weather conditions, using three different setups of the model to simulate PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations during two different climatic seasons and different resolutions. The results of this article generate a validation of two configurations of the model that can be used for the Environmental Secretary of the District (SDA) forecasts in Bogotá, Colombia, in order to contribute to the prediction of pollution events produced by PM10 and PM2.5 as a tool for an early alert system (EAS) at least 24 h in advance.

Anti-carbamylated protein and peptide antibodies as potential inflammatory joint biomarkers in the relatives of rheumatoid arthritis patients.

OBJECTIVE: Antibodies against carbamylated proteins/peptide (CarP) have been associated with severity in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. However, their role in risk groups, specific targets and relation with periodontal disease (PD) is uncertain yet. The aim of this study was evaluated the association between the levels of anti-CarP with clinical manifestation, human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles, periodontal activity markers, PD diagnosis, PD severity, and presence of Porphyromonas gingivalis (P gingivalis) in relatives of patients with RA. METHODS: One hundred and twenty-four individuals with a family history of RA in first-degree relatives (FDR) and 124 healthy individuals gender- and age-matched, RA activity was assessed. Antibodies against carbamylated protein anti-FCS-Carp and 2 carbamylated peptides of fibrinogen were selected (anti-Ca-Fib2, anti-Ca-Fib3). RESULTS: Anti-FCS-Carp-positive, anti-Ca-Fib2 and anti-Ca-Fib3 were more frequent in FDR than controls (25.0% vs 14.5%, 34.7% vs 15.3% and 33.1% vs 11.3%, respectively). Anti-FCS-CarP were associated with the HLA-DRB1-SE* 1402 allele (P = .035) and highly sensitive C-reactive protein levels (P = .016), the anti-Ca-Fib2 antibodies were associated with the HLA-DRB1-SE* 1501 allele (P = .03), with non-SE* 0901 allele (P = .01), the anti-Ca-Fib3 was associated with positive rheumatoid factor (P = .0012). The FDR condition was associated with the presence of anti-Ca-Fib3 (odds ratio [OR] =4.7; 95% CI = 1.8-11.7; P = .001) and painful joints (OR = 2.2; 95% CI = 1.01-4.68; P = .045); we also detected an important trend toward the presence of P gingivalis (OR = 1.9; 95% CI = 0.9-3.7; P = .062). CONCLUSION: The presence of anti-FCS-Carp, anti-Ca-Fib3 and anti-Ca-Fib2 antibodies may have a role for these antibodies as early biomarkers in the development of RA, probably including additional mechanisms related with other non-SE alleles; the anti-peptide antibodies proposed in the present study may represent a simpler way to identify antibodies directed to a specific target.