External validation of bleeding risk models for the prediction of long-term bleeding risk in patients with established cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE: The long-term predictive performance of existing bleeding risk models in patients with various manifestations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not well known. This study aims to assess and compare the performance of relevant existing bleeding risk models in estimating the long-term risk of major bleeding in a cohort of patients with established CVD. METHODS: Seven existing bleeding risk models (PRECISE-DAPT, DAPT, Ducrocq et al, de Vries et al, S2TOP-BLEED, Intracranial B2LEED3S and HAS-BLED) were identified and externally validated in 7,249 patients with established CVD included in the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-second manifestations of arterial disease study. Predictive performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration, both at 10 years and the original prediction horizon of the models. Major bleeding was defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium type 3 or 5. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years (interquartile range 4.5-12.5), a total of 233 (3.2%) major bleeding events occurred. C-statistics for discrimination at 10 years ranged from 0.53 (95%CI 0.49-0.57) to 0.64 (95%CI 0.60-0.68). Calibration plots after recalibration to 10 years showed best agreement between predicted and observed bleeding risk for De Vries et al, S2TOP-BLEED, DAPT and PRECISE-DAPT. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of existing bleeding risk models to predict long-term bleeding in patients with CVD varied. Discrimination and calibration were best for the models of de Vries et al, S2TOP-BLEED, DAPT and PRECISE-DAPT. Of these, recalibrated models requiring the least predictors may be preferred for use to personalize prevention with antithrombotic therapy.

Generalisability of trials on antithrombotic treatment intensification in patients with cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE: Assessment of generalisability of guideline-informing trials on antithrombotic treatment intensification to real-world patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: Inclusion and exclusion criteria of the Cardiovascular Outcomes for People Using Anticoagulation Strategies (COMPASS), Clopidogrel for High Atherothrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilization, Management and Avoidance (CHARISMA), Prevention of Cardiovascular events in Patients with Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (PEGASUS-TIMI) and Dual Antiplatelet Therapy (DAPT) study were applied to coronary artery disease (CAD) and/or peripheral artery disease (PAD) patients from Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) to determine real-world eligibility. Eligible and ineligible patients were compared on baseline characteristics, cardiovascular events, major bleeding and mortality. RESULTS: Eligibility ranged from 11%-94% for CAD to 75%-90% for patients with PAD. Cardiovascular, bleeding and mortality risks were higher in COMPASS-eligible patients with CAD (rate ratios (RR) 1.98 (95% CI 1.74 to 2.26), 2.02 (95% CI 1.47 to 2.78) and 3.11 (95% CI 2.71 to 3.57), respectively) and CHARISMA-eligible patients (RR 1.51 (95% CI 1.12 to 2.06), 2.25 (95% CI 1.01 to 6.21) and 4.43 (95% CI 2.79 to 7.51), respectively), and lower in COMPASS-eligible patients with PAD (RR 0.45 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.56), 0.29 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.46) and 0.45 (95% CI 0.38 to 0.54), respectively) and DAPT-eligible patients with CAD (RR CVD 0.49 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.69) and mortality 0.67 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.94)) than ineligible patients. After adjustment for trial eligibility criteria, only higher cardiovascular and mortality risks in COMPASS-eligible patients with CAD and lower cardiovascular risks in CHARISMA-eligible and DAPT-eligible patients persisted with CAD. CONCLUSION: A large proportion of contemporary CVD patients would be eligible for intensified antithrombotic treatment trials, with mostly similar adjusted event risks to ineligible patients. Trial-based guideline recommendations are largely applicable to real-world patients.

Visceral adipose tissue quantity and dysfunction and the occurrence of major bleeding in patients with established cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between both visceral fat quantity and adipose tissue dysfunction, and major bleeding in patients with established cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Patients from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease study with established cardiovascular disease were included. Visceral fat was measured using ultrasound and adipose tissue dysfunction was depicted using metabolic syndrome criteria (revised National Cholesterol Education Program). Cox regression models were fitted to study the relation with major bleeding defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) type 3 or 5, or International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) major bleeding. Sensitivity analyses were performed using C-reactive protein levels to reflect adipose tissue dysfunction. RESULTS: In 6927 patients during a median follow up of 9.2 years, a total of 237 BARC type 3 or 5 bleedings and 224 ISTH major bleedings were observed. Visceral fat quantity was not related to major bleeding (HR 1.01, 95%CI 0.88-1.16 for BARC type 3 or 5 bleeding and HR 1.00, 95%CI 0.87-1.15 for ISTH major bleeding), nor was metabolic syndrome (HR 0.97, 95%CI 0.75-1.26 for BARC type 3 or 5 bleeding and HR 0.98, 95%CI 0.75-1.28 for ISTH major bleeding). Sensitivity analyses using C-reactive protein levels showed similar results. No effect modification was observed by sex, antithrombotic therapy, presence of metabolic syndrome or diabetes. CONCLUSION: In patients with cardiovascular disease, no association was found between visceral fat quantity measured with ultrasound or measures of adipose tissue dysfunction and the risk of major bleeding, irrespective of antithrombotic agent use.

Cohort profile: the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) Study-an ongoing prospective cohort study of patients at high cardiovascular risk in the Netherlands.

PURPOSE: The Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) Study is an ongoing prospective single-centre cohort study with the aim to assess important determinants and the prognosis of cardiovascular disease progression. This article provides an update of the rationale, design, included patients, measurements and findings from the start in 1996 to date. PARTICIPANTS: The UCC-SMART Study includes patients aged 18-90 years referred to the University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands, for management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or severe cardiovascular risk factors. Since September 1996, a total of 14 830 patients have been included. Upon inclusion, patients undergo a standardised screening programme, including questionnaires, vital signs, laboratory measurements, an ECG, vascular ultrasound of carotid arteries and aorta, ankle-brachial index and ultrasound measurements of adipose tissue, kidney size and intima-media thickness. Outcomes of interest are collected through annual questionnaires and adjudicated by an endpoint committee. FINDINGS TO DATE: By May 2022, the included patients contributed to a total follow-up time of over 134 000 person-years. During follow-up, 2259 patients suffered a vascular endpoint (including non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke and vascular death) and 2794 all-cause deaths, 943 incident cases of diabetes and 2139 incident cases of cancer were observed up until January 2020. The UCC-SMART cohort contributed to over 350 articles published in peer-reviewed journals, including prediction models recommended by the 2021 European Society of Cardiology CVD prevention guidelines. FUTURE PLANS: The UCC-SMART Study guarantees an infrastructure for research in patients at high cardiovascular risk. The cohort will continue to include about 600 patients yearly and follow-up will be ongoing to ensure an up-to-date cohort in accordance with current healthcare and scientific knowledge. In the near future, UCC-SMART will be enriched by echocardiography, and a food frequency questionnaire at baseline enabling the assessment of associations between nutrition and CVD and diabetes.