Home Energy Efficiency and Subjective Health in Greater London.

The UK has introduced legislation that requires net-zero greenhouse gas emissions to be achieved by 2050. Improving the energy efficiency of homes is a key objective to help reach this target, and the UK government's Clean Growth Strategy aims to get many homes up to an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) Band of C by 2035. The relationship between home energy-efficiency and occupant health and wellbeing remains an area of ongoing research. This paper explores the nexus between home energy efficiency, energy consumption and self-reported health-an indicator of the general health and wellbeing of the population. We focus on Greater London through secondary data analysis. Energy-efficiency ratings and air infiltration rates of dwellings, derived from EPCs, were aggregated and matched to local area self-reported health and energy consumption data obtained from the Greater London Authority's (GLA) Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) Atlas database. Our regression model indicates that improving the energy efficiency (SAP) rating by 10 points for a typical home may reduce household gas consumption by around 7% (95% CIs: 2%, 14%). Beta regression finds a positive, but not statistically significant association between median SAP rating and the proportion of the population reporting 'good or very good' health when considering all Greater London LSOAs (z score = 0.60, p value = 0.55). A statistically significant positive association is observed however when repeating the analysis for the lowest income quartile LSOAs (z score = 2.03, p value = 0.04). This indicates that the least well-off may benefit most from home energy efficiency programs. A statistically significant positive association is also observed for the relationship between self-reported health and air infiltration rates (z score = 2.62, p value = 0.01). The findings support existing evidence for the predominantly naturally ventilated UK housing stock, suggesting that home energy efficiency measures provide a co-benefit for occupant health provided that adequate air exchange is maintained.

Public health vulnerability to wintertime weather: time-series regression and episode analyses of national mortality and morbidity databases to inform the Cold Weather Plan for England.

OBJECTIVES: To inform development of Public Health England's Cold Weather Plan (CWP) by characterizing pre-existing relationships between wintertime weather and mortality and morbidity outcomes, and identification of groups most at risk. STUDY DESIGN: Time-series regression analysis and episode analysis of daily mortality, emergency hospital admissions, and accident and emergency visits for each region of England. METHODS: Seasonally-adjusted Poisson regression models estimating the percent change in daily health events per 1 °C fall in temperature or during individual episodes of extreme weather. RESULTS: Adverse cold effects were observed in all regions, with the North East, North West and London having the greatest risk of cold-related mortality. Nationally, there was a 3.44% (95% CI: 3.01, 3.87) increase in all-cause deaths and 0.78% (95% CI: 0.53, 1.04) increase in all-cause emergency admissions for every 1 °C drop in temperature below identified thresholds. The very elderly and people with COPD were most at risk from low temperatures. A&E visits for fractures were elevated during heavy snowfall periods, with adults (16-64 years) being the most sensitive age-group. Since even moderately cold days are associated with adverse health effects, by far the greatest health burdens of cold weather fell outside of the alert periods currently used in the CWP. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that levels 0 ('year round planning') and 1 ('winter preparedness and action') are crucial components of the CWP in comparison to the alerts. Those most vulnerable during winter may vary depending on the type of weather conditions being experienced. Recommendations are made for the CWP.

Evaluation of the cold weather plan for England: modelling of cost-effectiveness.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the conditions under which the Cold Weather Plan (CWP) for England is likely to prove cost-effective in order to inform the development of the CWP in the short term before direct data on costs and benefits can be collected. STUDY DESIGN: Mathematical modelling study undertaken in the absence of direct epidemiological evidence on the effect of the CWP in reducing cold-related mortality and morbidity, and limited data or on its costs. METHODS: The model comprised a simulated temperature time series based on historical data; epidemiologically-derived relationships between temperature, and mortality and morbidity; and information on baseline unit costs of contacts with health care and community care services. Cost-effectiveness was assessed assuming varying levels of protection against cold-related burdens, coverage of the vulnerable population and willingness-to-pay criteria. RESULTS: Simulations showed that the CWP is likely to be cost effective under some scenarios at the high end of the willingness to pay threshold used by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England, but these results are sensitive to assumptions about the extent of implementation of the CWP at local level, and its assumed effectiveness when implemented. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio varied from £29,754 to £75,875 per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained. Conventional cost-effectiveness (<£30,000/QALY) was reached only when effective targeting of at-risk groups was assumed (i.e. need for low coverage (∼5%) of the population for targeted actions) and relatively high assumed effectiveness (>15%) in avoiding deaths and hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Although the modelling relied on a large number of assumptions, this type of modelling is useful for understanding whether, and in what circumstances, untested plans are likely to be cost-effective before they are implemented and in the early period of implementation before direct data on cost-effectiveness have accrued. Steps can then be taken to optimize the relevant parameters as far as practicable during the early implementation period.

Traffic and the risk of vehicle-related pedestrian injury: a decision analytic support tool.

BACKGROUND: Pedestrian injuries are a leading cause of death and disability. Transport policy decisions have a major impact on the risk of pedestrian injury, but the effects cannot usually be quantified in controlled studies. However, mathematical modeling can help to establish the injury consequences of transport policy decisions. METHODS: A stochastic mathematical model was developed to estimate the effect of alternative transport scenarios on pedestrian injury risk. The model is based on a mechanistic description of pedestrian injury causation and comprises four sub-models: vehicle dynamics, pedestrian dynamics, collision incidence, and injury severity. RESULTS: The model was used to estimate the yearly pedestrian injury rate for a baseline scenario, corresponding to current traffic conditions in London, UK, and three alternative scenarios, comprising reductions in vehicle speed, traffic volume, and vehicle mass. The model simulated a baseline injury rate of 88 per 100,000. Compared with baseline, a 15% reduction in mean speed resulted in a 21% reduction in injury rate and a 75% reduction in fatality rate. A 15% reduction in traffic volume resulted in a 14% reduction in injury rate and a 25% reduction in fatality rate. Reducing vehicle mass by 15% did not reduce the number of injuries, but a 25% reduction resulted in less severe injuries. CONCLUSIONS: The model simulated well the rates and severity of pedestrian injury corresponding to the baseline scenario and made predictions for different transport policy scenarios. However, it is offered primarily as a generic decision support tool for the assessment of alternative policies by transport authorities.

Association of mortality with high temperatures in a temperate climate: England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: It is well known that high ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality, even in temperate climates, but some important details are unclear. In particular, how heat-mortality associations (for example, slopes and thresholds) vary by climate has previously been considered only qualitatively. METHODS: An ecological time-series regression analysis of daily counts of all-cause mortality and ambient temperature in summers between 1993 and 2006 in the 10 government regions was carried out, focusing on all-cause mortality and 2-day mean temperature (lags 0 and 1). RESULTS: All regions showed evidence of increased risk on the hottest days, but the specifics, in particular the threshold temperature at which adverse effects started, varied. Thresholds were at about the same centile temperatures (the 93rd, year-round) in all regions-hotter climates had higher threshold temperatures. Mean supra-threshold slope was 2.1%/°C (95% CI 1.6 to 2.6), but regions with higher summer temperatures showed greater slopes, a pattern well characterised by a linear model with mean summer temperature. These climate-based linear-threshold models capture most, but not all, the association; there was evidence for some non-linearity above thresholds, with slope increasing at highest temperatures. CONCLUSION: Effects of high daily summer temperatures on mortality in English regions are quite well approximated by threshold-linear models that can be predicted from the region's climate (93rd centile and mean summer temperature). It remains to be seen whether similar relationships fit other countries and climates or change over time, such as with climate change.

A simulation model for diarrhoea and other common recurrent infections: a tool for exploring epidemiological methods.

The measurement and analysis of common recurrent conditions such as diarrhoea, respiratory infections or fever pose methodological challenges with regard to case definition, disease surveillance and statistical analysis. In this paper we describe a flexible and robust model that can generate simulated longitudinal datasets for a range of recurrent infections, reflecting the stochastic processes that underpin the data collected in the field. It can be used to evaluate and compare alternative disease definitions, surveillance strategies and statistical methods under 'controlled conditions'. Parameters in the model include: characterizing the distributions of the individual disease incidence and the duration of disease episodes; allowing the average disease duration to depend on an individual's number of episodes (simulating a correlation between incidence and duration); making the individual risk of disease depend on the occurrence of previous episodes (simulating autocorrelation of successive episodes); finally, incorporating seasonal variation of disease.

Cumulative slow-phase eye position of the caloric nystagmus.

A coherent and stable method was implemented for constructing the cumulative slow-phase eye position of the post-caloric nystagmus. Similarity and variability analyses performed on the derived responses (inter- and intrasubject) of 6 normals confirmed the homogeneity of the measure. A pilot study on one pathological case showed marked deviation from the normal responses.

Pattern analysis of Békésy audiograms.

A data-dependent method for the objective classification of Békésy audiograms is introduced. The technique uses orthogonal transformation from the pattern space to a reduced dimensionality feature space that allows a classification process to be implemented digitally. It is argued that this technique, with accretion of audiograms, could form the basis of a data-based system for determining and classifying the coherent structures of the various Békésy patterns with as few as possible a priori hypotheses made about the Békésy "types."

Correlation between vestibular and cochlear measures in internal ear disorders.

A study was carried out on vestibular and cochlear measures of 20 patients with internal ear disorders. It was shown that the vestibular findings do not always match the cochlear ones. A comparison of the various quantitative measures of the post-caloric responses with the clinical picture indicated that the average slow-phase velocity provides a good measure of the vestibular function. The correlation coefficients between the average slow-phase velocity of the post-caloric responses and those of the per- and post-rotatory responses were higher than those based on the maximum slow-phase velocity value. The diagnostic significance of the rotatory test is assessed against the clinical findings.

Control analysis of the Rose-Hindmarsh model for neural activity.

It is well known that vasopressin cells fire action potentials in bursts, but also have the ability to continuously discharge or have long periods of silence. Experimentally, various external stimuli can be applied to the vasopressin cell in order to manipulate the patterns of discharge observed. In this paper, the Rose-Hindmarsh model is used to describe the discharging of a single vasopressin cell. The range of parameter values which makes the model display the various patterns observed in vivo are described. It is shown that the model can be controlled to follow desired patterns of discharge and thus mimic external stimulation.

Stability analysis of the FitzHugh-Nagumo differential equations driven by impulses: applied to the electrical firing of magnocellular neurons.

A stability analysis is carried out for a mathematical model which describes the electrical firing of a single vasopressin neuron. The model used in a FitzHugh-Nagumo-type system which is driven by impulses. The analysis is based on recent developments in the stability theory of impulsive differential equations. Conditions are derived under which the system of differential equations is stable at two of its equilibrium points. Biologically this bistability represents the cell alternating between periods of electrical activity and silence. The conditions for stability are specified in terms of the amplitude and frequency of the impulses perturbing the system. Both stochastic and deterministic impulses are considered.