Measuring protective efficacy and quantifying the impact of drug resistance: A novel malaria chemoprevention trial design and methodology.

BACKGROUND: Recently revised WHO guidelines on malaria chemoprevention have opened the door to more tailored implementation. Countries face choices on whether to replace old drugs, target additional age groups, and adapt delivery schedules according to local drug resistance levels and malaria transmission patterns. Regular routine assessment of protective efficacy of chemoprevention is key. Here, we apply a novel modelling approach to aid the design and analysis of chemoprevention trials and generate measures of protection that can be applied across a range of transmission settings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a model of genotype-specific drug protection, which accounts for underlying risk of infection and circulating genotypes. Using a Bayesian framework, we fitted the model to multiple simulated scenarios to explore variations in study design, setting, and participant characteristics. We find that a placebo or control group with no drug protection is valuable but not always feasible. An alternative approach is a single-arm trial with an extended follow-up (>42 days), which allows measurement of the underlying infection risk after drug protection wanes, as long as transmission is relatively constant. We show that the currently recommended 28-day follow-up in a single-arm trial results in low precision of estimated 30-day chemoprevention efficacy and low power in determining genotype differences of 12 days in the duration of protection (power = 1.4%). Extending follow-up to 42 days increased precision and power (71.5%) in settings with constant transmission over this time period. However, in settings of unstable transmission, protective efficacy in a single-arm trial was overestimated by 24.3% if recruitment occurred during increasing transmission and underestimated by 15.8% when recruitment occurred during declining transmission. Protective efficacy was estimated with greater precision in high transmission settings, and power to detect differences by resistance genotype was lower in scenarios where the resistant genotype was either rare or too common. CONCLUSIONS: These findings have important implications for the current guidelines on chemoprevention efficacy studies and will be valuable for informing where these studies should be optimally placed. The results underscore the need for a comparator group in seasonal settings and provide evidence that the extension of follow-up in single-arm trials improves the accuracy of measures of protective efficacy in settings with more stable transmission. Extension of follow-up may pose logistical challenges to trial feasibility and associated costs. However, these studies may not need to be repeated multiple times, as the estimates of drug protection against different genotypes can be applied to different settings by adjusting for transmission intensity and frequency of resistance.

Combining malaria vaccination with chemoprevention: a promising new approach to malaria control.

Malaria control has stalled in a number of African countries and novel approaches to malaria control are needed for these areas. The encouraging results of a recent trial conducted in young children in Burkina Faso and Mali in which a combination of the RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine and seasonal malaria chemoprevention led to a substantial reduction in clinical cases of malaria, severe malaria, and malaria deaths compared with the administration of either intervention given alone suggests that there may be other epidemiological/clinical situations in which a combination of malaria vaccination and chemoprevention could be beneficial. Some of these potential opportunities are considered in this paper. These include combining vaccination with intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in infants, with intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy (through vaccination of women of child-bearing age before or during pregnancy), or with post-discharge malaria chemoprevention in the management of children recently admitted to hospital with severe anaemia. Other potential uses of the combination are prevention of malaria in children at particular risk from the adverse effects of clinical malaria, such as those with sickle cell disease, and during the final stages of a malaria elimination programme when vaccination could be combined with repeated rounds of mass drug administration. The combination of a pre-erythrocytic stage malaria vaccine with an effective chemopreventive regimen could make a valuable contribution to malaria control and elimination in a variety of clinical or epidemiological situations, and the potential of this approach to malaria control needs to be explored.

The Impact of 3 Years of Targeted Indoor Residual Spraying With Pirimiphos-Methyl on Malaria Parasite Prevalence in a High-Transmission Area of Northern Zambia.

Malaria transmission in northern Zambia has increased in the past decade, despite malaria control activities. Evidence-based intervention strategies are needed to effectively reduce malaria transmission. Zambia's National Malaria Control Centre conducted targeted indoor residual spraying (IRS) in Nchelenge District, Luapula Province, from 2014 to 2016 using the organophosphate insecticide pirimiphos-methyl. An evaluation of the IRS campaign was conducted by the Southern Africa International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research using actively detected malaria cases in bimonthly household surveys carried out from April 2012 to July 2017. Changes in malaria parasite prevalence after IRS were assessed by season using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors, controlling for clustering of participants in households and demographic, geographical, and climatological covariates. In targeted areas, parasite prevalence declined approximately 25% during the rainy season following IRS with pirimiphos-methyl but did not decline during the dry season or in the overall study area. Within targeted areas, parasite prevalence declined in unsprayed households, suggesting both direct and indirect effects of IRS. The moderate decrease in parasite prevalence within sprayed areas indicates that IRS with pirimiphos-methyl is an effective malaria control measure, but a more comprehensive package of interventions is needed to effectively reduce the malaria burden in this setting.

High Plasmodium falciparum genetic diversity and temporal stability despite control efforts in high transmission settings along the international border between Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

BACKGROUND: While the utility of parasite genotyping for malaria elimination has been extensively documented in low to moderate transmission settings, it has been less well-characterized in holoendemic regions. High malaria burden settings have received renewed attention acknowledging their critical role in malaria elimination. Defining the role for parasite genomics in driving these high burden settings towards elimination will enhance future control programme planning. METHODS: Amplicon deep sequencing was used to characterize parasite population genetic diversity at polymorphic Plasmodium falciparum loci, Pfama1 and Pfcsp, at two timepoints in June-July 2016 and January-March 2017 in a high transmission region along the international border between Luapula Province, Zambia and Haut-Katanga Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). RESULTS: High genetic diversity was observed across both seasons and in both countries. No evidence of population structure was observed between parasite populations on either side of the border, suggesting that this region may be one contiguous transmission zone. Despite a decline in parasite prevalence at the sampling locations in Haut-Katanga Province, no genetic signatures of a population bottleneck were detected, suggesting that larger declines in transmission may be required to reduce parasite genetic diversity. Analysing rare variants may be a suitable alternative approach for detecting epidemiologically important genetic signatures in highly diverse populations; however, the challenge is distinguishing true signals from potential artifacts introduced by small sample sizes. CONCLUSIONS: Continuing to explore and document the utility of various parasite genotyping approaches for understanding malaria transmission in holoendemic settings will be valuable to future control and elimination programmes, empowering evidence-based selection of tools and methods to address pertinent questions, thus enabling more efficient resource allocation.

Efficacy and safety of artemether-lumefantrine as treatment for Plasmodium falciparum uncomplicated malaria in adult patients on efavirenz-based antiretroviral therapy in Zambia: an open label non-randomized interventional trial.

BACKGROUND: HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) require treatment with artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) when infected with malaria. Artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is the most commonly used ACT for treatment of falciparum malaria in Africa but there is limited evidence on the safety and efficacy of AL in HIV-infected individuals on ART, among whom drug-drug interactions are expected. Day-42 adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) and incidence of adverse events was assessed in HIV-infected individuals on efavirenz-based ART with uncomplicated falciparum malaria treated with AL. METHODS: A prospective, open label, non-randomized, interventional clinical trial was conducted at St Paul's Hospital in northern Zambia, involving 152 patients aged 15-65 years with uncomplicated falciparum malaria, who were on efavirenz-based ART. They received a 3-day directly observed standard treatment of AL and were followed up until day 63. Day-42 polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-corrected ACPRs (95% confidence interval [CI]) were calculated for the intention-to-treat population. RESULTS: Enrolled patients had a baseline geometric mean (95% CI) parasite density of 1108 (841-1463) parasites/µL; 16.4% (25/152) of the participants had a recurrent malaria episode by day 42. However, PCR data was available for 17 out of the 25 patients who had malaria recurrence. Among all the 17 patients, PCR findings demonstrated malaria re-infection, making the PCR-adjusted day-42 ACPR 100% in the 144 patients who could be evaluated. Even when eight patients with missing PCR data were considered very conservatively as failures, the day-42 ACPR was over 94%. None of the participants, disease or treatment characteristics, including day-7 lumefantrine concentrations, predicted the risk of malaria recurrence by day 42. AL was well tolerated following administration. There were only two cases of grade 3 neutropaenia and one serious adverse event of lobar pneumonia, none of which was judged as probably related to intake of AL. CONCLUSIONS: AL was well tolerated and efficacious in treating uncomplicated falciparum malaria in HIV co-infected adults on efavirenz-based ART. However, a higher than anticipated proportion of participants experienced malaria re-infection, which highlights the need for additional malaria prevention measures in this sub-population after treatment with AL. Trial registration Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR): PACTR201311000659400. Registered on 4 October 2013. https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/Search.aspx.

The use of GPS data loggers to describe the impact of spatio-temporal movement patterns on malaria control in a high-transmission area of northern Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Human movement is a driver of malaria transmission and has implications for sustainable malaria control. However, little research has been done on the impact of fine-scale movement on malaria transmission and control in high-transmission settings. As interest in targeted malaria control increases, evaluations are needed to determine the appropriateness of these strategies in the context of human mobility across a variety of transmission settings. METHODS: A human mobility study was conducted in Nchelenge District, a high-transmission setting in northern Zambia. Over 1 year, 84 participants were recruited from active malaria surveillance cohorts to wear a global positioning system data logger for 1 month during all daily activity. Participants completed a survey questionnaire and underwent malaria testing and treatment at the time of logger distribution and at collection 1 month later. Incident malaria infections were identified using polymerase chain reaction. Participant movement was characterized throughout the study area and across areas targeted for an indoor residual spraying (IRS) intervention. Participant movement patterns were compared using movement intensity maps, activity space plots, and statistical analyses. Malaria risk was characterized across participants using spatial risk maps and time spent away from home during peak vector biting hours. RESULTS: Movement data were collected from 82 participants, and 63 completed a second study visit. Participants exhibited diverse mobility patterns across the study area, including movement into and out of areas targeted for IRS, potentially mitigating the impact of IRS on parasite prevalence. Movement patterns did not differ significantly by season or age, but male participants traveled longer distances and spent more time away from home. Monthly malaria incidence was 22%, and malaria risk was characterized as high across participants. Participants with incident parasitemia traveled a shorter distance and spent more time away from home during peak biting hours; however, these relationships were not statistically significant, and malaria risk score did not differ by incident parasitemia. CONCLUSIONS: Individual movement patterns in Nchelenge District, Zambia have implications for malaria control, particularly the effectiveness of targeted IRS strategies. Large and fine-scale population mobility patterns should be considered when planning intervention strategies across transmission settings.

Malaria knowledge and bed net use in three transmission settings in southern Africa.

BACKGROUND: Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) reduce malaria morbidity and mortality in endemic areas. Despite increasing availability, the use of ITNs remains limited in some settings. Poor malaria knowledge is a barrier to the widespread use of ITNs. The goal of this study was to assess the levels of malaria knowledge and evaluate factors associated with bed net use among individuals residing in three regions of southern Africa with different levels of malaria transmission and control. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted on a sample of 7535 residents recruited from 2066 households in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe (seasonal malaria transmission), Choma District, Zambia (low transmission) and Nchelenge District, Zambia (high transmission), between March 2012 and March 2017. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data on demographics, malaria-related knowledge and use of preventive measures. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess determinants of bed net use. RESULTS: Most of the 3836 adult participants correctly linked mosquito bites to malaria (85.0%), mentioned at least one malaria symptom (95.5%) and knew of the benefit of sleeping under an ITN. Bed net ownership and use were highest in Choma and Nchelenge Districts and lowest in Mutasa District. In multivariate analyses, knowledge of ITNs was associated with a 30-40% increased likelihood of bed net use after adjusting for potential confounders across all sites. Other factors significantly associated with bed net use were age, household size and socioeconomic status, although the direction, strength and size of association varied by study site. Importantly, participants aged 5-14 years had reduced odds of sleeping under a bed net compared to children younger than 5 years. CONCLUSION: Relevant knowledge of ITNs translated into the expected preventive behaviour of sleeping under a bed net, underscoring the need for continued health messaging on malaria prevention. The implementation and delivery of malaria control and elimination interventions needs to consider socioeconomic equity gaps, and target school-age children to ensure access to and improve utilization of ITNs.

High burden of malaria following scale-up of control interventions in Nchelenge District, Luapula Province, Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Malaria control interventions have been scaled-up in Zambia in conjunction with a malaria surveillance system. Although substantial progress has been achieved in reducing morbidity and mortality, national and local information demonstrated marked heterogeneity in the impact of malaria control across the country. This study reports the high burden of malaria in Nchelenge District, Luapula Province, Zambia from 2006 to 2012 after seven years of control measures. METHODS: Yearly aggregated information on cases of malaria, malaria deaths, use of malaria diagnostics, and malaria control interventions from 2006 to 2012 were obtained from the Nchelenge District Health Office. Trends in the number of malaria cases, methods of diagnosis, malaria positivity rate among pregnant women, and intervention coverage were analysed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Malaria prevalence remained high, increasing from 38% in 2006 to 53% in 2012. Increasing numbers of cases of severe malaria were reported until 2010. Intense seasonal malaria transmission was observed with seasonal declines in the number of cases between April and August, although malaria transmission continued throughout the year. Clinical diagnosis without accompanying confirmation declined from 95% in 2006 to 35% in 2012. Intervention coverage with long-lasting insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying increased from 2006 to 2012. CONCLUSIONS: Despite high coverage with vector control interventions, the burden of malaria in Nchelenge District, Zambia remained high. The high parasite prevalence could accurately reflect the true burden, perhaps in part as a consequence of population movement, or improved access to care and case reporting. Quality information at fine spatial scales will be critical for targeting effective interventions and measurement of progress.

Challenges of non-commercial multicentre North-South collaborative clinical trials.

The last decade has witnessed a substantial increase of multi-centre, public health-oriented clinical trials in poor countries. However, non-commercial research groups have less staff and financial resources than traditional commercial sponsors, so the trial teams have to be creative to comply with Good Clinical Practices (GCP) requirements. According to the recent experience of a large multicentre trial on antimalarials, major challenges result from the complexity of multiple ethical review, the costs of in-depth monitoring at several sites, setting up an adequate Good Clinical Laboratory Practices (GCLP) framework, lack of insurers in host countries, and lack of adequate non-commercial data management software. Public research funding agencies need to consider these challenges in their funding policies. They also could support common spaces where North-South collaborative research groups may share critical information, such as on research insurance and open-source, GCP-compliant software. WHO should update its GCP guidelines, which date back to 1995, to incorporate the perspectives and needs of non-commercial clinical research.

The Impact of Household and Community Indoor Residual Spray Coverage with Fludora Fusion in a High Malaria Transmission Setting in Northern Zambia.

Zambia's National Malaria Elimination Program transitioned to Fludora Fusion in 2019 for annual indoor residual spraying (IRS) in Nchelenge District, an area with holoendemic malaria transmission. Previously, IRS was associated with reductions in parasite prevalence during the rainy season only, presumably because of insufficient residual insecticide longevity. This study assessed the impact of transitioning from Actellic 300CS to long-acting Fludora Fusion using active surveillance data from 2014 through 2021. A difference-in-differences analysis estimated changes in rainy season parasite prevalence associated with living in a sprayed house, comparing insecticides. The change in the 2020 to 2021 dry season parasite prevalence associated with living in a house sprayed with Fludora Fusion was also estimated. Indoor residual spraying with Fludora Fusion was not associated with decreased rainy season parasite prevalence compared with IRS with Actellic 300CS (ratio of prevalence ratios [PRs], 1.09; 95% CI, 0.89-1.33). Moreover, living in a house sprayed with either insecticide was not associated with decreased malaria risk (Actellic 300CS: PR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.86-1.10; Fludora Fusion: rainy season PR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.89-1.25; dry season PR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.99-1.48). In contrast, each 10% increase in community IRS coverage was associated with a 4% to 5% reduction in parasite prevalence (rainy season: PR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.92-0.97; dry season: PR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94-0.99), suggesting a community-level protective effect, and corroborating the importance of high-intervention coverage.

What Heterogeneities in Individual-level Mobility Are Lost During Aggregation? Leveraging GPS Logger Data to Understand Fine-scale and Aggregated Patterns of Mobility.

Human movement drives spatial transmission patterns of infectious diseases. Population-level mobility patterns are often quantified using aggregated data sets, such as census migration surveys or mobile phone data. These data are often unable to quantify individual-level travel patterns and lack the information needed to discern how mobility varies by demographic groups. Individual-level datasets can capture additional, more precise, aspects of mobility that may impact disease risk or transmission patterns and determine how mobility differs across cohorts; however, these data are rare, particularly in locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Using detailed GPS logger data collected from three sites in southern Africa, we explore metrics of mobility such as percent time spent outside home, number of locations visited, distance of locations, and time spent at locations to determine whether they vary by demographic, geographic, or temporal factors. We further create a composite mobility score to identify how well aggregated summary measures would capture the full extent of mobility patterns. Although sites had significant differences in all mobility metrics, no site had the highest mobility for every metric, a distinction that was not captured by the composite mobility score. Further, the effects of sex, age, and season on mobility were all dependent on site. No factor significantly influenced the number of trips to locations, a common way to aggregate datasets. When collecting and analyzing human mobility data, it is difficult to account for all the nuances; however, these analyses can help determine which metrics are most helpful and what underlying differences may be present.

Scientific Findings of the Southern and Central Africa International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research: Ten Years of Malaria Control Impact Assessments in Hypo-, Meso-, and Holoendemic Transmission Zones in Zambia and Zimbabwe.

For a decade, the Southern and Central Africa International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research has operated with local partners across study sites in Zambia and Zimbabwe that range from hypo- to holoendemic and vary ecologically and entomologically. The burden of malaria and the impact of control measures were assessed in longitudinal cohorts, cross-sectional surveys, passive and reactive case detection, and other observational designs that incorporated multidisciplinary scientific approaches: classical epidemiology, geospatial science, serosurveillance, parasite and mosquito genetics, and vector bionomics. Findings to date have helped elaborate the patterns and possible causes of sustained low-to-moderate transmission in southern Zambia and eastern Zimbabwe and recalcitrant high transmission and fatality in northern Zambia. Cryptic and novel mosquito vectors, asymptomatic parasite reservoirs in older children, residual parasitemia and gametocytemia after treatment, indoor residual spraying timed dyssynchronously to vector abundance, and stockouts of essential malaria commodities, all in the context of intractable rural poverty, appear to explain the persistent malaria burden despite current interventions. Ongoing studies of high-resolution transmission chains, parasite population structures, long-term malaria periodicity, and molecular entomology are further helping to lay new avenues for malaria control in southern and central Africa and similar settings.

Policy Implications of the Southern and Central Africa International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research: Ten Years of Malaria Control Impact Assessments in Hypo-, Meso-, and Holoendemic Transmission Zones in Zambia and Zimbabwe.

The International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) were established by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases more than a decade ago to provide multidisciplinary research support to malaria control programs worldwide, operating in endemic areas and contributing technology, expertise, and ultimately policy guidance for malaria control and elimination. The Southern and Central Africa ICEMR has conducted research across three main sites in Zambia and Zimbabwe that differ in ecology, entomology, transmission intensity, and control strategies. Scientific findings led to new policies and action by the national malaria control programs and their partners in the selection of methods, materials, timing, and locations of case management and vector control. Malaria risk maps and predictive models of case detection furnished by the ICEMR informed malaria elimination programming in southern Zambia, and time series analyses of entomological and parasitological data motivated several major changes to indoor residual spray campaigns in northern Zambia. Along the Zimbabwe-Mozambique border, temporal and geospatial data are currently informing investigations into a recent resurgence of malaria. Other ICEMR findings pertaining to parasite and mosquito genetics, human behavior, and clinical epidemiology have similarly yielded immediate and long-term policy implications at each of the sites, often with generalizable conclusions. The ICEMR programs thereby provide rigorous scientific investigations and analyses to national control and elimination programs, without which the impediments to malaria control and their potential solutions would remain understudied.

RETRACTED: Gradual emergence followed by exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Africa.

The geographic and evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (BA.1), which was first detected mid-November 2021 in Southern Africa, remain unknown. We tested 13,097 COVID-19 patients sampled between mid-2021 to early 2022 from 22 African countries for BA.1 by real-time RT-PCR. By November-December 2021, BA.1 had replaced the Delta variant in all African sub-regions following a South-North gradient, with a peak Rt of 4.1. Polymerase chain reaction and near-full genome sequencing data revealed genetically diverse Omicron ancestors already existed across Africa by August 2021. Mutations, altering viral tropism, replication and immune escape, gradually accumulated in the spike gene. Omicron ancestors were therefore present in several African countries months before Omicron dominated transmission. These data also indicate that travel bans are ineffective in the face of undetected and widespread infection.

Safety and efficacy of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine versus artemether-lumefantrine in the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Zambian children.

BACKGROUND: Malaria in Zambia remains a public health and developmental challenge, affecting mostly children under five and pregnant women. In 2002, the first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria was changed to artemether-lumefantrine (AL) that has proved to be highly efficacious against multidrug resistant Plasmodium falciparum. OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to determine whether dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA/PQP) had similar efficacy, safety and tolerability as AL for the treatment of children with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in Ndola, Zambia. METHODS: Between 2005 and 2006, 304 children (6-59 months old) with uncomplicated P. falciparum were enrolled, randomized to AL (101) or DHA/PQP (203) and followed up for 42 days. Outcome of treatment was defined according to the standard WHO classification, i.e. early treatment failure (ETF), late clinical failure (LCF, late parasitological failure (LPF) and adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR). Recurrent infections were genotyped to distinguish between recrudescence and new infection. RESULTS: No ETF was observed. At day 28, PCR-uncorrected ACPR was 92% in the DHA/PQP and 74% in the AL arm (OR: 4.05; 95%CI: 1.89-8.74; p < 0.001). Most failure were new infections and PCR-corrected ACPR was similar in the two study arms (OR: 0.69; 95%CI: 0.22-2.26; p = 0.33). Similar results were observed for day 42, i.e. higher PCR-uncorrected ACPR for DHA/PQP, mainly due to the difference observed up to day 28, while the PCR-corrected ACPR was similar: DHA/PQP: 93% (179/192), AL: 93% (84/90), (OR: 0.92; 95%CI: 0.30-2.64; p = 0.85). Except for cough, more frequent in the DHA/PQP arm (p = 0.04), there were no differences between treatment arms in the occurrence of adverse events. Two serious adverse events were probably associated to AL treatment. CONCLUSION: DHA/PQP was as efficacious, safe and well tolerated in treatment of uncomplicated malaria as AL, though in the latter group more new infections during the follow up were observed. DHA/PQP seems a potential candidate to be used as an alternative first-line or rescue treatment in Zambia. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN16263443, at http://www.controlled-trials.com/isrctn.

House Structure Is Associated with Malaria among Febrile Patients in a High-Transmission Region of Zambia.

Since the late nineteenth century, the importance of house structure as a determinant of malaria risk has been recognized. Few studies to date have examined the association of housing and malaria in clinical populations. We conducted a cross-sectional study of febrile patients (n = 282) at two rural health clinics in a high malaria-transmission area of northern Zambia. Participants underwent testing for Plasmodium falciparum infection by PCR. Demographic and other risk factors including house structure, indoor residual spraying (IRS), bed net use, education level, and household income were collected. Data were fitted to logistic regression models for relational and mediation analyses. Residing in a house with a thatch roof was associated with higher odds of malaria than residing in a house with corrugated metal (odds ratio: 2.6; 95% CI: 1.0-6.3, P = 0.04). Lower income and educational attainment were also associated with greater odds of malaria. Living under a thatch roof accounted for 24% (95% CI: 14-82) of the effect of household income on malaria risk, and income accounted for 11% (95% CI: 8-19) of the effect of education. Neither IRS nor bed net use was associated with malaria risk despite large, local investments in these vector control interventions. The findings testify to malaria as a disease of rural poverty and contribute further evidence to the utility of housing improvements in vector control programs.

The Impact of Three Years of Targeted Indoor Residual Spraying with Pirimiphos-Methyl on Household Vector Abundance in a High Malaria Transmission Area of Northern Zambia.

The global malaria burden has decreased substantially, but gains have been uneven both within and between countries. In Zambia, the malaria burden remains high in northern and eastern regions of the country. To effectively reduce malaria transmission in these areas, evidence-based intervention strategies are needed. Zambia's National Malaria Control Centre conducted targeted indoor residual spraying (IRS) in 40 high-burden districts from 2014 to 2016 using the novel organophosphate insecticide pirimiphos-methyl. The Southern and Central Africa International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research conducted an evaluation of the impact of the IRS campaign on household vector abundance in Nchelenge District, Luapula Province. From April 2012 to July 2017, field teams conducted indoor overnight vector collections from 25 to 30 households per month using Centers for Disease Control light traps. Changes in indoor anopheline counts before versus after IRS were assessed by species using negative binomial regression models with robust standard errors, controlling for geographic and climatological covariates. Counts of Anopheles funestus declined by approximately 50% in the study area and within areas targeted for IRS, and counts of Anopheles gambiae declined by approximately 40%. Within targeted areas, An. funestus counts declined more in sprayed households than in unsprayed households; however, this relationship was not observed for An. gambiae. The moderate decrease in indoor vector abundance indicates that IRS with pirimiphos-methyl is an effective vector control measure, but a more comprehensive package of interventions is needed with sufficient coverage to effectively reduce the malaria burden in this setting.

Risk Factors for Household Vector Abundance Using Indoor CDC Light Traps in a High Malaria Transmission Area of Northern Zambia.

Malaria transmission is dependent on the density and distribution of mosquito vectors, but drivers of vector abundance have not been adequately studied across a range of transmission settings. To inform intervention strategies for high-burden areas, further investigation is needed to identify predictors of vector abundance. Active household (HH) surveillance was conducted in Nchelenge district, Luapula Province, northern Zambia, a high-transmission setting with limited impact of malaria control. Between April 2012 and July 2017, mosquitoes were collected indoors during HH visits using CDC light traps. Demographic, environmental, and climatological correlates of vector abundance were identified using log-binomial regression models with robust standard errors. The primary malaria vectors in this setting were Anopheles funestus sensu stricto (s.s.) and Anopheles gambiae s.s. Anopheles funestus predominated in both seasons, with a peak in the dry season. Anopheles gambiae peaked at lower numbers in the rainy season. Environmental, climatic, and demographic factors were correlated with HH vector abundance. Higher vector counts were found in rural areas with low population density and among HHs close to roads and small streams. Vector counts were lower with increasing elevation and slope. Anopheles funestus was negatively associated with rainfall at lags of 2-6 weeks, and An. gambiae was positively associated with rainfall at lags of 3-10 weeks. Both vectors had varying relationships with temperature. These results suggest that malaria vector control in Nchelenge district should occur throughout the year, with an increased focus on dry-season transmission and rural areas.

The Search for Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2/3 Deletions in Zambia and Implications for Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2-Based Rapid Diagnostic Tests.

We attempted to identify Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2/3 (pfhrp2/3) deletions among rapid diagnostic test (RDT)-negative but PCR- or microscopy-positive P. falciparum-infected individuals in areas of low transmission (Choma District, 2009-2011) and high transmission (Nchelenge District, 2015-2017) in Zambia. Through community-based surveys, 5,167 participants were screened at 1,147 households by P. falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2)-based RDTs. Slides were made and dried blood spots were obtained for molecular analysis. Of 28 samples with detectable P. falciparum DNA, none from Nchelenge District were pfhrp2/3 negative. All eight samples from Choma District had detectable pfhrp3 genes, but pfhrp2 was undetectable in three. DNA concentrations of pfhrp2-negative samples were low (< 0.001 ng/µL). These findings suggest that PfHRP2-based RDTs remain effective tools for malaria diagnosis in Nchelenge District, but further study is warranted to understand the potential for pfhrp2/3 deletions in southern Zambia where malaria transmission declined over the past decade.

Distinct Antibody Signatures Associated with Different Malaria Transmission Intensities in Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum are specific biomarkers that can be used to monitor parasite exposure over broader time frames than microscopy, rapid diagnostic tests, or molecular assays. Consequently, seroprevalence surveys can assist with monitoring the impact of malaria control interventions, particularly in the final stages of elimination, when parasite incidence is low. The protein array format to measure antibodies to diverse P. falciparum antigens requires only small sample volumes and is high throughput, permitting the monitoring of malaria transmission on large spatial and temporal scales. We expanded the use of a protein microarray to assess malaria transmission in settings beyond those with a low malaria incidence. Antibody responses in children and adults were profiled, using a P. falciparum protein microarray, through community-based surveys in three areas in Zambia and Zimbabwe at different stages of malaria control and elimination. These three epidemiological settings had distinct serological profiles reflective of their malaria transmission histories. While there was little correlation between transmission intensity and antibody signals (magnitude or breadth) in adults, there was a clear correlation in children younger than 5 years of age. Antibodies in adults appeared to be durable even in the absence of significant recent transmission, whereas antibodies in children provided a more accurate picture of recent levels of transmission intensity. Seroprevalence studies in children could provide a valuable marker of progress toward malaria elimination.IMPORTANCE As malaria approaches elimination in many areas of the world, monitoring the effect of control measures becomes more important but challenging. Low-level infections may go undetected by conventional tests that depend on parasitemia, particularly in immune individuals, who typically show no symptoms of malaria. In contrast, antibodies persist after parasitemia and may provide a more accurate picture of recent exposure. Only a few parasite antigens-mainly vaccine candidates-have been evaluated in seroepidemiological studies. We examined antibody responses to 500 different malaria proteins in blood samples collected through community-based surveillance from areas with low, medium, and high malaria transmission intensities. The breadth of the antibody responses in adults was broad in all three settings and was a poor correlate of recent exposure. In contrast, children represented a better sentinel population for monitoring recent malaria transmission. These data will help inform the use of multiplex serology for malaria surveillance.