Monkeypox: a review of epidemiological modelling studies and how modelling has led to mechanistic insight.

Human monkeypox (mpox) virus is a viral zoonosis that belongs to the Orthopoxvirus genus of the Poxviridae family, which presents with similar symptoms as those seen in human smallpox patients. Mpox is an increasing concern globally, with over 80,000 cases in non-endemic countries as of December 2022. In this review, we provide a brief history and ecology of mpox, its basic virology, and the key differences in mpox viral fitness traits before and after 2022. We summarize and critique current knowledge from epidemiological mathematical models, within-host models, and between-host transmission models using the One Health approach, where we distinguish between models that focus on immunity from vaccination, geography, climatic variables, as well as animal models. We report various epidemiological parameters, such as the reproduction number, R0, in a condensed format to facilitate comparison between studies. We focus on how mathematical modelling studies have led to novel mechanistic insight into mpox transmission and pathogenesis. As mpox is predicted to lead to further infection peaks in many historically non-endemic countries, mathematical modelling studies of mpox can provide rapid actionable insights into viral dynamics to guide public health measures and mitigation strategies.

Service process factors affecting patients' and clinicians' experiences on rapid teleconsultation implementation in out-patient neurology services during COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: The adoption of teleconsultation for outpatient neurology services was limited until the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic which forced many outpatient neurology services to rapidly switch to virtual models. However, it remains unclear how this change has impacted patients' and clinicians' perceptions of service quality. The purpose of this scoping review is to identify process factors that influence patients' and clinicians' experiences of outpatient teleconsultation services during COVID-19. METHODS: Arksey and O'Malley scoping review framework was used to search PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL, and PsycInfo for original peer-reviewed research studies that examined the experiences of synchronous teleconsultation between a clinician and patient in a home-setting since the World Health Organization announced the COVID-19 global pandemic. The service quality model SERVQUAL was used to conduct a deductive thematic analysis to identify the key factors that impacted the patients' and clinicians' perception of teleconsultation services. RESULTS: A total of nineteen studies published between January 1, 2020, and April 17, 2021, were identified. The most common service process factors affecting the patients' and clinicians' experiences of teleconsultation were technical issues, addressing logistical needs, communication, ability to perform clinical activities, appropriate triage, and administrative support. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings identified six key service process factors affecting the patients' and clinicians' teleconsultation experiences in outpatient neurology services. The need for improvement of triage process and standardizing administrative virtual care pathway are identified as important steps to improve patients and clinicians' teleconsultation experiences compared to pre-COVID era. More research is needed to assess outpatient neurology teleconsultation service quality from patients' and clinicians' perspectives.

Real-world effectiveness of nivolumab in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: The effectiveness of immunotherapies for non-small-cell lung cancer under real-world clinical settings remains uncertain. Materials & methods: Systematic searches of PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science were conducted. Random-effects models were used to estimate pooled median overall survival and progression-free survival estimates. Results: 36 studies of nivolumab were included for narrative synthesis and 11 of these studies were included for meta-analysis. Age, sex, histology and prior lines of treatment did not affect survival outcomes, while Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status and brain metastasis were inversely associated with survival. In the meta-analysis, nivolumab was associated with 9.6 months (95% CI: 8.4-10.9) of overall survival and 2.6 months (95% CI: 1.6-3.6) of progression-free survival. Conclusion: Very-low-certainty evidence suggested the real-world effectiveness of nivolumab was consistent with those observed in the clinical trials.

A new concordant partial AUC and partial c statistic for imbalanced data in the evaluation of machine learning algorithms.

BACKGROUND: In classification and diagnostic testing, the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) plot and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) describe how an adjustable threshold causes changes in two types of error: false positives and false negatives. Only part of the ROC curve and AUC are informative however when they are used with imbalanced data. Hence, alternatives to the AUC have been proposed, such as the partial AUC and the area under the precision-recall curve. However, these alternatives cannot be as fully interpreted as the AUC, in part because they ignore some information about actual negatives. METHODS: We derive and propose a new concordant partial AUC and a new partial c statistic for ROC data-as foundational measures and methods to help understand and explain parts of the ROC plot and AUC. Our partial measures are continuous and discrete versions of the same measure, are derived from the AUC and c statistic respectively, are validated as equal to each other, and validated as equal in summation to whole measures where expected. Our partial measures are tested for validity on a classic ROC example from Fawcett, a variation thereof, and two real-life benchmark data sets in breast cancer: the Wisconsin and Ljubljana data sets. Interpretation of an example is then provided. RESULTS: Results show the expected equalities between our new partial measures and the existing whole measures. The example interpretation illustrates the need for our newly derived partial measures. CONCLUSIONS: The concordant partial area under the ROC curve was proposed and unlike previous partial measure alternatives, it maintains the characteristics of the AUC. The first partial c statistic for ROC plots was also proposed as an unbiased interpretation for part of an ROC curve. The expected equalities among and between our newly derived partial measures and their existing full measure counterparts are confirmed. These measures may be used with any data set but this paper focuses on imbalanced data with low prevalence. FUTURE WORK: Future work with our proposed measures may: demonstrate their value for imbalanced data with high prevalence, compare them to other measures not based on areas; and combine them with other ROC measures and techniques.

Modulating Chemosensitivity of Tumors to Platinum-Based Antitumor Drugs by Transcriptional Regulation of Copper Homeostasis.

Platinum (Pt)-based antitumor agents have been effective in treating many human malignancies. Drug importing, intracellular shuffling, and exporting-carried out by the high-affinity copper (Cu) transporter (hCtr1), Cu chaperone (Ato x1), and Cu exporters (ATP7A and ATP7B), respectively-cumulatively contribute to the chemosensitivity of Pt drugs including cisplatin and carboplatin, but not oxaliplatin. This entire system can also handle Pt drugs via interactions between Pt and the thiol-containing amino acid residues in these proteins; the interactions are strongly influenced by cellular redox regulators such as glutathione. hCtr1 expression is induced by acute Cu deprivation, and the induction is regulated by the transcription factor specific protein 1 (Sp1) which by itself is also regulated by Cu concentration variations. Copper displaces zinc (Zn) coordination at the zinc finger (ZF) domains of Sp1 and inactivates its DNA binding, whereas Cu deprivation enhances Sp1-DNA interactions and increases Sp1 expression, which in turn upregulates hCtr1. Because of the shared transport system, chemosensitivity of Pt drugs can be modulated by targeting Cu transporters. A Cu-lowering agent (trientine) in combination with a Pt drug (carboplatin) has been used in clinical studies for overcoming Pt-resistance. Future research should aim at further developing effective Pt drug retention strategies for improving the treatment efficacy.

Cost effectiveness of cancer treatment in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: This study aims to examine the cost effectiveness of treating major cancers compared with other major illnesses in Taiwan. METHODS: We collected data on 395,330 patients with cancer, 125,277 patients with end-stage renal disease, and 50,481 patients under prolonged mechanical ventilation during 1998-2007. They were followed for 10-13 years to estimate lifetime survival functions using a semiparametric method. EuroQol five-dimension was used to measure the quality of life for 6189 cancer patients and 1401 patients with other illnesses. The mean utility values and healthcare costs reimbursed by the National Health Insurance were multiplied with the corresponding survival probabilities to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancies and lifetime costs, respectively. Data of 22,344 cancer patients under hospice care (considered as a comparison group) were used to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by assuming patients without treatment survived for 2 years with a quality of life value of 0.5. RESULTS: The costs of care for patients under prolonged mechanical ventilation and those with end-stage renal disease were US$41,780-53,708 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and US$18,222-18,465 per QALY, respectively, which are equivalent to 2.17-2.79 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita per QALY and 1.18-1.25 GDP per capita per QALY. The costs of care for the nine different cancers were less than 1 GDP per capita per QALY, with those of lung, esophagus, and liver cancers being the highest. Sensitivity analysis showed the same conclusion. Lifetime risks of six out of nine cancer sites show an increased trend. CONCLUSION: Cancer care in Taiwan seemed cost effective compared with that of other illnesses, but prevention is necessary to make the National Health Insurance more sustainable.

Regulation of the high-affinity copper transporter (hCtr1) expression by cisplatin and heavy metals.

Platinum-based antitumor agents have been the mainstay in cancer chemotherapy for many human malignancies. Drug resistance is an important obstacle to achieving the maximal therapeutic efficacy of these drugs. Understanding how platinum drugs enter cells is of great importance in improving therapeutic efficacy. It has been demonstrated that human high-affinity copper transporter 1 (hCtr1) is involved in transporting cisplatin into cells to elicit cytotoxic effects, although other mechanisms may exist. In this communication, we demonstrate that cisplatin transcriptionally induces the expression of hCtr1 in time- and concentration-dependent manners. Cisplatin functions as a competitor for hCtr1-mediated copper transport, resulting in reduced cellular copper levels and leading to upregulated expression of Sp1, which is a positive regulator for hCtr1 expression. Thus, regulation of hCtr1 expression by cisplatin is an integral part of the copper homeostasis regulation system. We also demonstrate that Ag(I) and Zn(II), which are known to suppress hCtr1-mediated copper transport, can also induce hCtr1/Sp1 expression. In contrast, Cd(II), another inhibitor of copper transport, downregulates hCtr1 expression by suppressing Sp1 expression. Collectively, our results demonstrate diverse mechanisms of regulating copper metabolism by these heavy metals.

A computed tomography radiomics-based model for predicting osteoporosis after breast cancer treatment.

Many treatments against breast cancer decrease the level of estrogen in blood, resulting in bone loss, osteoporosis and fragility fractures in breast cancer patients. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate a novel opportunistic screening for cancer treatment-induced bone loss (CTIBL) in breast cancer patients using CT radiomics. Between 2011 and 2021, a total of 412 female breast cancer patients who received treatment and were followed up in our institution, had post-treatment dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) examination of the lumbar vertebrae and had post-treatment chest CT scan that encompassed the L1 vertebra, were included in this study. Results indicated that the T-score of L1 vertebra had a strongly positive correlation with the average T-score of L1-L4 vertebrae derived from DXA (r = 0.91, p < 0.05). On multivariable analysis, four clinical variables (age, body weight, menopause status, aromatase inhibitor exposure duration) and three radiomic features extracted from the region of interest of L1 vertebra (original_firstorder_RootMeanSquared, wavelet.HH_glcm_InverseVariance, and wavelet.LL_glcm_MCC) were selected for building predictive models of L1 T-score and bone health. The predictive model combining clinical and radiomic features showed the greatest adjusted R2 value (0.557), sensitivity (83.6%), specificity (74.2%) and total accuracy (79.4%) compared to models that relied solely on clinical data, radiomic features, or Hounsfield units. In conclusion, the clinical-radiomic predictive model may be used as an opportunistic screening tool for early identification of breast cancer survivors at high risk of CTIBL based on non-contrast CT images of the L1 vertebra, thereby facilitating early intervention for osteoporosis.

Metformin enhances cisplatin cytotoxicity by suppressing signal transducer and activator of transcription-3 activity independently of the liver kinase B1-AMP-activated protein kinase pathway.

Metformin has been used as first-line treatment in patients with type 2 diabetes, and is reported to reduce cancer risk and progression by activating the liver kinase B1 (LKB1)-AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) pathway. Cisplatin remains the main drug for treating advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. However, drug resistance often develops through several mechanisms during the treatment course, including one mechanism mediated by the activation of the IL-6/signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT)-3 pathway, related to the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS). This study demonstrated a correlation between STAT3 phosphorylation and cisplatin cytotoxicity, using AS2 (PC14PE6/AS2)-derived cell lines (AS2/S3C) that contained constitutively active STAT3 plasmids as a model. A STAT3 inhibitor (JSI-124) enhanced the cisplatin sensitivity in AS2 cells, whereas metformin inhibited STAT3 phosphorylation and enhanced cisplatin cytotoxicity. By contrast, another AMPK activator (5-aminoimidazole-4-carboxamide-riboside) failed to produce these effects. LKB1-AMPK silencing by small, interfering RNA or mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibition by rapamycin or pp242 did not alter the effect of metformin on STAT3 activity suppression, suggesting that metformin can modulate the STAT3 pathway through an LKB1-AMPK-independent and probably mTOR-independent mechanism. Metformin also inhibited cisplatin-induced ROS production and autocrine IL-6 secretion in AS2 cells. Both mechanisms contributed to the ability of metformin to suppress STAT3 activation in cancer cells, which resulted in the decreased secretion of vascular endothelial growth factor by cancer cells. The growth of subcutaneous tumor xenografts was significantly delayed by a combination of cisplatin and metformin. This is the first study to demonstrate that metformin suppresses STAT3 activation via LKB1-AMPK-mTOR-independent but ROS-related and autocrine IL-6 production-related pathways. Thus, metformin helps to overcome tumor drug resistance by targeting STAT3.

Interleukin-17-producing cell infiltration in the breast cancer tumour microenvironment is a poor prognostic factor.

AIMS: Interleukin-17 (IL-17) is a proinflammatory cytokine that is most prominently produced by T-helper type 17 (Th17) cells, a distinct CD4+ T-helper cell subset. The aim of this study was to investigate the level of IL-17-producing cells in the breast cancer tumour microenvironment and its prognostic role. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 207 breast carcinoma specimens were assessed by IL-17 immunohistochemistry, and the findings were correlated with clinicopathological parameters. We found that increased numbers of IL-17-producing cells were correlated with high histological grade, negative ER/PR status, and triple-negative molecular subtypes segregated by immunoprofiles. However, they did not correlate with stage, tumour size, nodal status, HER2 status, or histological type. Patients with tumours with high numbers of IL-17-producing cells had shorter disease-free survival (DFS) than patients with tumours with low numbers of IL-17-producing cells (P < 0.01). In multivariate analysis, high IL-17 level [hazard ratio (HR) 2.24; 95% CI 1.06-4.75], advanced T stage (HR 2.73; 95% CI 1.30-5.73), positive HER2 status (HR 4.88; 95% CI 1.47-16.18) and triple-negative subtype (HR 7.46; 95% CI 1.38-40.36) were significant prognostic factors for DFS. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that a high level of IL-17-producing cells in the breast cancer tumour microenvironment is a poor prognostic factor.

The increment in standardized uptake value determined using dual-phase 18F-FDG PET is a promising prognostic factor in non-small-cell lung cancer.

PURPOSE: We aimed to determine whether the increment in the maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax) of the primary lung tumour between the initial and delayed imaging by dual-phase (18)F-FDG PET has prognostic value in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: We reviewed the records of patients with NSCLC who underwent pretreatment dual-phase (18)F-FDG PET/CT scans acquired at 1 h and 2 h after injection. The SUVmax increment (SUVinc) of the primary lung tumour was the 2-h SUVmax minus the 1-h SUVmax. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to assess the prognostic significance of SUVinc, retention index, whole-body total metabolic tumour volume, whole-body total lesion glycolysis (TLGwb), 1-h SUVmax, 2-h SUVmax, gender, age, performance status, histological subtype, T stage, N stage and clinical stage. RESULTS: The records of 187 consecutive patients were reviewed. The median follow-up time was 3.9 years. The estimated median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 1.3 years and 4.4 years, respectively. An SUVinc cut-off value of >1 had the best discriminative yield for PFS. The 3-year PFS and OS were 61.6 % and 87.8 % in patients with SUVinc ≤ 1 versus 21.1 % and 46.2 % in patients with SUVinc >1 (all P < 0.01). Using the forward stepwise multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, SUVinc, TLGwb, and clinical stage were significant factors for PFS (all P < 0.01). A subgroup analysis of 117 patients treated with surgery showed that SUVinc (P = 0.02) and clinical stage (P < 0.01) were significant prognostic factors for PFS. Furthermore, in stage I patients treated with surgery alone, SUVinc was the only significant prognostic factor (HR 28.07; 95 % CI 2.42 - 326.41). CONCLUSION: SUVinc determined from dual-phase (18)F-FDG PET is a promising prognostic factor for NSCLC. It adds to the value of dual-phase (18)F-FDG PET.

Estimating the lifelong health impact and financial burdens of different types of lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Owing to the high mortality and rapidly growing costs related to lung cancer, it is worth examining the health benefits of prevention for major types of lung cancer. This study attempts to quantify the quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), loss-of-QALE, and lifetime healthcare expenditures of patients with different pathological types of lung cancer. METHODS: A national cohort consisting of 66,535 patients with pathologically verified lung cancer was followed for 13 years (1998-2010) to obtain the survival function, which was further extrapolated to lifetime. Between 2011 and 2012, EuroQol 5-dimension questionnaires were used to measure the quality of life (QoL) for 1,314 consecutive, cross-sectional samples. After multiplying the lifetime survival function by the utility values of QoL, we estimated the QALE and loss-of-QALE. We also collected the monthly healthcare expenditures, which included National Health Insurance-reimbursed and out-of-pocket direct medical costs, for 2,456 patients from 2005 to 2012. These values were multiplied by the corresponding survival probabilities to calculate lifetime healthcare expenditures after adjustments with medical care inflation rates and annual discount rates. RESULTS: The QALE for patients with small cell lung cancer, squamous cell carcinoma, and adenocarcinoma were 1.21, 2.37, and 3.03 quality-adjusted life year (QALY), with the corresponding loss-of-QALE of 13.69, 12.22, and 15.03 QALY, respectively. The lifetime healthcare expenditures were US$ 18,455 ± 1,137, 20,599 ± 1,787, and 36,771 ± 1,998, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The lifelong health impact and financial burdens in Taiwan are heavier for adenocarcinoma than for squamous cell carcinoma. The cost-effectiveness of prevention programs could be directly compared with that of treatment strategies to improve patient value. And the methodology could be applied to other chronic diseases for resources planning of healthcare services.

Investigating Canadian Public Attitudes Toward COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates with a Nested Analysis Framework.

BACKGROUND: Social media is an important medium for studying public attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccine mandates in Canada, and Reddit network communities are a good source for this. METHODS: This study applied a "nested analysis" framework. We collected 20378 Reddit comments via the Pushshift API and developed a BERT-based binary classification model to screen for relevance to COVID-19 vaccine mandates. We then used a Guided Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model on relevant comments to extract key topics and assign each comment to its most relevant topic. RESULTS: There were 3179 (15.6%) relevant and 17199 (84.4%) irrelevant comments. Our BERT-based model achieved 91% accuracy trained with 300 Reddit comments after 60 epochs. The Guided LDA model had an optimal coherence score of 0.471 with four topics: travel, government, certification, and institutions. Human evaluation of the Guided LDA model showed an 83% accuracy in assigning samples to their topic groups. CONCLUSION: We develop a screening tool for filtering and analyzing Reddit comments on COVID-19 vaccine mandates through topic modelling. Future research could develop more effective seed word-choosing and evaluation methods to reduce the need for human judgment.

Digital Disease Surveillance for Emerging Infectious Diseases: An Early Warning System Using the Internet and Social Media Data for COVID-19 Forecasting in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) are a significant threat to population health globally. We aimed to examine the relationship between internet search engine queries and social media data on COVID-19 and determine if they can predict COVID-19 cases in Canada. METHODS: We analyzed Google Trends (GT) and Twitter data from 1/1/2020 to 3/31/2020 in Canada and used various signal-processing techniques to remove noise from the data. Data on COVID-19 cases was obtained from the COVID-19 Canada Open Data Working Group. We conducted time-lagged cross-correlation analyses and developed the long short-term memory model for forecasting daily COVID-19 cases. RESULTS: Among symptom keywords, "cough," "runny nose," and "anosmia" were strong signals with high cross-correlation coefficients >0.8 ( rCough = 0.825, t - 9; rRunnyNose = 0.816, t - 11; rAnosmia = 0.812, t - 3 ), showing that searching for "cough," "runny nose," and "anosmia" on GT correlated with the incidence of COVID-19 and peaked 9, 11, and 3 days earlier than the incidence peak, respectively. For symptoms- and COVID-related Tweet counts, the cross-correlations of Tweet signals and daily cases were rTweetSymptoms = 0.868, t - 11 and tTweetCOVID = 0.840, t - 10, respectively. The LSTM forecasting model achieved the best performance (MSE = 124.78, R2 = 0.88, adjusted R2 = 0.87) using GT signals with cross-correlation coefficients >0.75. Combining GT and Tweet signals did not improve the model performance. CONCLUSION: Internet search engine queries and social media data can be used as early warning signals for creating a real-time surveillance system for COVID-19 forecasting, but challenges remain in modelling.

HER2 amplification in colorectal cancer with brain metastasis: A propensity score matching study.

BACKGROUND: The association between human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) amplification and brain metastasis (BM) in patients having colorectal cancer (CRC) has been suggested but not yet established. This study investigated the expression patterns of HER2, its association with BM, and its prognostic value in patients having CRC. METHODS: We retrospectively identified 99 patients having metastatic CRC (mCRC) and BM (the BM cohort) and compared them with a cohort of 249 patients having mCRC and without BM (the stage IV cohort) by propensity score matching. Immunohistochemical studies of HER2 on all available paraffin-embedded tumour samples, either from the primary tumour, the metastasis (brain and/or extracranial sites) or both, were performed and analysed. HER2 fluorescent in situ hybridisation was applied when necessary. The expression of HER2 was compared and correlated with survival. RESULTS: HER2 amplifications were detected in 16 (18.4%) of 87 and 9 (3.6%) of 249 patients who had specimens available in the BM and stage IV cohorts, respectively (P < .001). After propensity score matching, HER2 amplification was significantly associated with BM (odds ratio: 5.38, P = .003). HER2 heterogeneity was frequently observed not only at the single tumour level but also in paired tumour samples. A marginally significant longer survival since BM was found in patients having HER2-amplified mCRC than in those without (P = .07). CONCLUSIONS: HER2 amplification was significantly associated with BM in patients having mCRC and might have prognostic value for survival since BM. Given the heterogeneity of HER2 expression, the testing of HER2 status on available tissues from both primary and metastatic tumours should be encouraged.

Mitochondrial uncoupling protein 2 regulates the effects of paclitaxel on Stat3 activation and cellular survival in lung cancer cells.

Growing evidence suggests that Stat3 contributes to chemoresistance. However, the impact of chemotherapy on Stat3 activity is unclear. We found that paclitaxel activated Stat3 in the human lung cancer cell lines PC14PE6AS2 (AS2) and H157, whereas it reduced Stat3 activation in A549 and H460 cells. Pretreatment of AS2 and H157 cells with rotenone, an inhibitor of mitochondrially produced reactive oxygen species (ROS), or carbonyl cyanide p-(trifluoromethoxy)-phenylhydrazone (FCCP), a mitochondrial uncoupler, suppressed the paclitaxel-induced activation of Stat3. Uncoupling protein 2 (UCP-2), located in the inner membrane of the mitochondria, can reduce ROS production in conditions of oxidative stress. UCP-2 protein expression in the four cancer cell lines was higher than that in normal lung epithelial cells (NL-20), but its expression was lower in AS2 and H157 cells relative to A549 and H460 cells. Silencing high UCP-2 expression with small interfering RNA (siRNA) in A549 and H460 cells restored paclitaxel-induced Stat3 activation. In addition, paclitaxel-induced Stat3 activation led to the upregulation of survivin and Mcl-1, which in turn facilitated cell survival. Moreover, the CL1-5 subline had lower UCP-2 expression relative to the parental CL1-0 cells. Treatment with paclitaxel activated Stat3 in CL1-5 but not in CL1-0 cells, whereas in CL1-5 cells, the overexpression of UCP-2 with complementary DNA (cDNA) blocked Stat3 activation. In lung cancer patients, low UCP-2 expression in cancer cells was a predictor of a poor response to chemotherapy. Therefore, UCP-2 modulates the ROS/Stat3 signaling pathway and response to chemotherapy treatment in lung cancer cells. Targeting UCP-2, ROS and Stat3 pathways may improve anticancer therapies.

Prognostic value of whole-body total lesion glycolysis at pretreatment FDG PET/CT in non-small cell lung cancer.

PURPOSE: To determine whether whole-body total lesion glycolysis (TLG), which combines volumetric and metabolic information from fluorine 18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT), can provide a better evaluation of the prognosis for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The institutional review board approved this retrospective study, and the requirement to obtain informed consent was waived. The authors identified 105 consecutive patients with NSCLC who underwent staging FDG PET/CT before any therapy. These patients were free of brain metastasis and underwent standard treatment and subsequent clinical follow-up. Metabolic tumor volume (MTV), mean standardized uptake value (SUV), and maximum SUV of each tumor over the whole body were determined. Whole-body MTV and whole-body TLG are the summation of all the MTVs and summation of individual tumor volume multiplied by its mean SUV, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to assess the prognostic significance of whole-body TLG and other factors, including whole-body MTV, lung TLG, lung MTV, maximum SUV, sex, age, performance status, histologic subtype, T stage, N stage, clinical stage, and treatment method. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 3.1 years. The estimated median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for the cohort was 10.8 months and 2.8 years, respectively. The 1-year PFS was 0.0% for patients with high whole-body TLG (>655) and 50.0% for those with low whole-body TLG (≤655). The 1-year OS was 58.8% for patients with high whole-body TLG and 84.1% for those with low whole-body TLG. Univariate analysis showed that whole-body TLG, whole-body MTV, lung TLG, lung MTV, maximum SUV, performance status, T stage, N stage, clinical stage, and treatment type (surgery vs other) were significant prognostic factors for PFS (P < .01 for all). With use of the forward stepwise multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, whole-body TLG (hazard ratio = 2.92; 95% confidence interval: 1.62, 5.26; P < .01) and surgical treatment (hazard ratio = 4.24; 95% confidence interval: 2.54, 7.07; P < .01) remained significant in PFS. CONCLUSION: Whole-body TLG is of prognostic value for NSCLC. It may be a promising tool for stratifying patients with NSCLC for risk-adapted therapies.

Exploring the dynamic transitions of polysubstance use patterns among Canadian youth using Latent Markov Models on COMPASS data.

Background: Understanding what factors lead to youth polysubstance use (PSU) patterns and how the transitions between use patterns can inform the design and implementation of PSU prevention programs. We explore the dynamics of PSU patterns from a large cohort of Canadian secondary school students using machine learning techniques. Methods: We employed a multivariate latent Markov model (LMM) on COMPASS data, with a linked sample (N = 8824) of three-annual waves, Wave I (WI, 2016-17, as baseline), Wave II (WII, 2017-18), and Wave III (WIII, 2018-19). Substance use indicators, i.e., cigarette, e-cigarette, alcohol and marijuana, were self-reported and were categorized into never/occasional/current use. Outcomes: Four distinct use patterns were identified: no-use (S1), single-use of alcohol (S2), dual-use of e-cigarettes and alcohol (S3), and multi-use (S4). S1 had the highest prevalence (60.5%) at WI, however, S3 became the prominent use pattern (32.5%) by WIII. Most students remained in the same subgroup over time, particularly S4 had the highest transition probability (0.87) across the three-wave. With time, those who transitioned typically moved towards a higher use pattern, with the most and least likely transition occurring S2→S3 (0.45) and S3→S2 (<0.01), respectively. Among all covariates being examined, truancy, being measured by the # of classes skipped, significantly affected transition probabilities from any low→high (e.g., ORS2→S4 = 2.41, 95% CI [2.11, 2.72], p < 0.00001) and high→low (e.g., ORS3→S1 = 0.38, 95% CI [0.33, 0.44], p < 0.00001) use directions over time. Older students, blacks (vs. whites), and breakfast eaters were less likely to transition from low→high use direction. Students with more weekly allowance, with more friends that smoked, longer sedentary time, and attended attended school unsupportive to resist or quit drug/alcohol were more likely to transition from low→high use direction. Except for truancy, all other covariates had inconsistent effects on the transition probabilities from the high→low use direction. Interpretation: This is the first study to ascertain the dynamics of use patterns and factors in youth PSU utilizing LMM with population-based longitudinal health surveys, providing evidence in developing programs to prevent youth PSU. Funding: The Applied Health Sciences scholarship; the Microsoft AI for Good grant; the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Health Canada, the Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse, the SickKids Foundation, the Ministère de la Santé et des Services sociaux of the province of Québec.

Impact of Alcohol and Smoking on Outcomes of HPV-Related Oropharyngeal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of adverse lifestyle factors on outcomes in patients with human papillomavirus (HPV)-related oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). METHODS: From 2010 to 2019, 150 consecutive non-metastatic OPSCC patients receiving curative treatment in our institution were retrospectively enrolled. HPV positivity was defined as p16 expression ≥75%. The effects of adverse lifestyle factors on overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) on OPSCC patients were determined. RESULTS: The median follow-up duration was 3.6 years. Of the 150 OPSCCs, 51 (34%) patients were HPV-positive and 99 (66%) were HPV-negative. The adverse lifestyle exposure rates were 74.7% (n = 112) alcohol use, 57.3% (n = 86) betel grid chewing, and 78% (n = 117) cigarette smoking. Alcohol use strongly interacted with HPV positivity (HR, 6.00; 95% CI, 1.03-35.01), leading to an average 26.1% increased risk of disease relapse in patients with HPV-positive OPSCC. Heavy smoking age ≥30 pack-years was associated with increased risk of death (HR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.05-4.00) and disease relapse (HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.06-3.75) in OPSCC patients. In stratified analyses, the 3-year absolute risk of disease relapse in HPV-positive OPSCC patients reached up to 50% when alcohol use and heavy smoking for ≥30 pack-years were combined. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol acted as a significant treatment-effect modifier for DFS in HPV-positive OPSCC patients, diluting the favorable prognostic effect of HPV positivity. Heavy smoking age ≥30 pack-years was an independent adverse prognostic factor of OS and DFS in OPSCC patients. De-intensification treatment for HPV-related OPSCC may be avoided when these adverse lifestyle factors are present.

Prevalence of alterations in DNA mismatch repair genes in patients with young-onset colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Direct germline analysis could be used to screen high-risk patients for mutations in DNA mismatch repair genes associated with Lynch Syndrome. We examined the prevalence of mutations in MLH1, MSH2, and MSH6 in a population-based sample of patients with young-onset (age <50 years) colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: Young-onset CRC cases were randomly selected from 3 Colon Cancer Family Registry sites. DNA was extracted from peripheral blood leukocytes; MLH1, MSH2, and MSH6 were sequenced, and duplication and deletion analyses was performed for MLH1 and MSH2. Results were reported as deleterious or suspected deleterious, likely neutral, variant of uncertain significance, or no alteration detected. Germline data were compared to Amsterdam II criteria (ACII) and immunohistochemistry results in secondary analyses. RESULTS: Among 195 subjects, 11 had deleterious/suspected deleterious mutations (5.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8%-9.9%), 12 had likely neutral alterations (6.2%; 95% CI, 3.2%-10.5%), 14 had variants of uncertain significance (7.2%; 95% CI, 4.0%-11.8%), 2 had a likely neutral alteration and a variant of uncertain significance (1.0%; 95% CI, 0.1%-3.7%), and 156 had no alteration detected (80.0%; 95% CI, 73.7%-85.4%). Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for detecting deleterious/suspected deleterious mutations, based on ACII, were 36.4% (4/11), 96.7% (178/184), 40.0% (4/10), and 96.2% (178/185), respectively; based on immunohistochemistry these values were 85.7% (6/7), 91.9% (136/148), 33.3% (6/18), and 99.3% (136/137), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based sample of young-onset CRC cases, germline mutations in MLH1, MSH, and/or MSH6 were more prevalent than reported for CRC patients overall. Because only about 5% of young-onset CRC cases had confirmed deleterious or suspected deleterious mutations, further comparative effectiveness research is needed to determine the most appropriate screening strategy for Lynch Syndrome in this high-risk group.