Korea's 2015 cigarette tax increases.

South Korea increased tobacco taxes in 2015 after a 10-year gap. This commentary suggests two lessons for public finance practitioners. Substantive tax increases are crucial to reducing tobacco use; particularly where prices are demonstrably lower and prevalence higher in comparison to other countries ranked similarly on economic development indicators. Second, as a rule of thumb, governments cannot afford to neglect the annual increases that ensure that tobacco taxes do not lose their efficacy over time.

Cigarette demand is responsive to higher prices: findings from a survey of University students in Jordan.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the price elasticity of cigarette demand for university students aged 18-24 years in Jordan. METHODS: Questions from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey were adapted and administered to students from 10 public universities in Jordan in 2014. A two-part econometric model of cigarette demand was estimated. RESULTS: Nearly one-third of university students in Jordan smoke, purchasing 33.2 packs per month and paying 1.70 Jordanian dinars on average (US$2.40) for a pack of 20 cigarettes. The price elasticity of cigarette demand was estimated to be -1.15. CONCLUSIONS: Higher taxes may be particularly effective in reducing smoking among University students in Jordan.

Smokeless tobacco control policies in South Asia: a gap analysis and recommendations.

INTRODUCTION: Almost a fifth of the world's tobacco is consumed in smokeless form. Its consumption is particularly common in South Asia, where an increasing array of smokeless tobacco (SLT) products is widely available. Mindful of the growing public health threat from SLT, a group of international academics and policy makers recently gathered to identify policy and knowledge gaps and proposed strategies to address these. METHODS: We reviewed key policy documents and interviewed policy makers and representatives of civil society organizations in 4 South Asian countries: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. We explored if SLT features in existing tobacco control policies and, if so, the extent to which these are implemented and enforced. We also investigated barriers to effective policy formulation and implementation. The findings were presented at an international meeting of experts and were refined in the light of the ensuing discussion in order to inform policy and research recommendations. RESULTS: We found that the existing SLT control policies in these 4 South Asian countries were either inadequate or poorly implemented. Taxes were low and easily evaded; regulatory mechanisms, such as licensing and trading standards, either did not exist or were inadequately enforced to regulate the composition and sales of such products; and there was little or no cessation support for those who wanted to quit. CONCLUSIONS: Limited progress has been made so far to address the emerging public health threat posed by SLT consumption in South Asia. International and regional cooperation is required to advocate for effective policy and to address knowledge gaps.

A cross-country study of cigarette prices and affordability: evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the characteristics of two primary determinants of cigarette consumption: cigarette affordability and the range of prices paid for cigarettes (and bidis, where applicable) in a set of 15 countries. From this cross-country comparison, identify places where opportunities may exist for reducing consumption through tax adjustments. DATA: Self-response data from 45,838 smokers from 15 countries, obtained from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) 2008-2011. DESIGN: Using self-response data on individual cigarette expenditure and consumption, we construct a measure of the average cigarette price smokers pay for manufactured cigarettes (and bidis, where applicable) in 15 countries. We use these prices to evaluate cigarette affordability and the range of prices available in each country. These survey-derived measures of cigarette price and affordability are uniquely suited for cross-country comparison because they represent each country's distinctive mix of individual consumption characteristics such as brand choice, intensity of consumption, and purchasing behavior. RESULTS: In this sample of countries, cigarettes are most affordable in Russia, which has the most room for tobacco tax increase. Affordability is also relatively high in Brazil and China for cigarettes, and in India and Bangladesh for bidis. Although the affordability of cigarettes in India is relatively low, the range of cigarette prices paid is relatively high, providing additional evidence to support the call for simplifying the existing tax structure and reducing the width of price options. China has both high affordability and wide price ranges, suggesting multiple opportunities for reducing consumption through tax adjustments.

Hypertension treatment capacity in India by increased workforce, greater task-sharing, and extended prescription period: a modelling study.

Background: The worldwide control rate for hypertension is dismal. An inadequate number of physicians to treat patients with hypertension is one key obstacle. Innovative health system approaches such as delegation of basic tasks to non-physician health workers (task-sharing) might alleviate this problem. Massive scale up of population-wide hypertension management is especially important for low- and middle-income countries such as India. Methods: Using constrained optimization models, we estimated the hypertension treatment capacity and salary costs of staff involved in hypertension care within the public health system of India and simulated the potential effects of (1) an increased workforce, (2) greater task-sharing among health workers, and (3) extended average prescription periods that reduce treatment visit frequency (e.g., quarterly instead of monthly). Findings: Currently, only an estimated 8% (95% uncertainty interval 7%-10%) of ∼245 million adults with hypertension can be treated by physician-led services in the Indian public health system (assuming the current number of health workers, no greater task-sharing, and monthly visits for prescriptions). Without task-sharing and with continued monthly visits for prescriptions, the least costly workforce expansion to treat 70% of adults with hypertension would require ∼1.6 (1.0-2.5) million additional staff (all non-physicians), with ∼INR 200 billion (≈USD 2.7 billion) in additional annual salary costs. Implementing task-sharing among health workers (without increasing the overall time on hypertension care) or allowing a 3-month prescription period was estimated to allow the current workforce to treat ∼25% of patients. Joint implementation of task-sharing and a longer prescription period could treat ∼70% of patients with hypertension in India. Interpretation: The combination of greater task-sharing and extended prescription periods could substantially increase the hypertension treatment capacity in India without any expansion of the current workforce in the public health system. By contrast, workforce expansion alone would require considerable, additional human and financial resources. Funding: Resolve to Save Lives, an initiative of Vital Strategies, was funded by grants from Bloomberg Philanthropies; the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; and Gates Philanthropy Partners (funded with support from the Chan Zuckerberg Foundation).

The youth e-cigarette epidemic: New estimates of JUUL Labs' revenue from youth users in the US.

INTRODUCTION: Past 30-day e-cigarette use increased by 78% among high school students from 2017 to 2018, an increase attributable to pod-style devices. JUUL Labs (JUUL) insists they do not market their product to teenagers. We created several scenarios to estimate the percentages of JUUL's net revenue from adults and youth in the US in 2018. METHODS: We used the number of youth (aged 12-17 years) and adults (aged ≥18 years) who reported using JUUL in the nationally representative Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study wave 4 (Dec 2016-Jan 2018) to estimate the youth proportion of JUUL users. As a sensitivity analysis, we also used data from the nationally representative Truth Longitudinal Cohort (TLC) study to estimate the youth proportion of JUUL users. Based on this percentage, we then applied several scenarios to estimate JUUL's net revenue from youth in the US in 2018. RESULTS: From the PATH Study, 31% of JUUL users were youth (aged 12-17 years). In the TLC study, 30% of current JUUL users were aged 15-17 years. Given that JUUL's net revenue was $1.3 billion in 2018, we calculated that JUUL made between $130 million and $650 million of its net revenue from youth, depending on consumption scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of JUUL's profits in 2018 were a result of use by youth. It could be required that all e-cigarette companies actively ensure that use by youth is below a pre-determined small fraction of their sales, requiring that a high penalty be paid by those that fail to do so.

A behavioral economics perspective on tobacco taxation.

Economic studies of taxation typically estimate external costs of tobacco use to be low and refrain from recommending large tobacco taxes. Behavioral economics suggests that a rational decision-making process by individuals fully aware of tobacco's hazards might still lead to overconsumption through the psychological tendency to favor immediate gratification over future harm. Taxes can serve as a self-control device to help reduce tobacco use and enable successful quit attempts. Whether taxes are appropriately high depends on how excessively people underrate the harm from tobacco use and varies with a country's circumstances. Such taxes are likely to be more equitable for poorer subgroups than traditional economic analysis suggests, which would strengthen the case for increased tobacco taxation globally.

An analysis of purchase price of legal and illicit cigarettes in urban retail environments in 14 low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To estimate and compare price differences between legal and illicit cigarettes in 14 low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). DESIGN: A cross-sectional census of all packs available on the market was purchased. SETTING: Cigarette packs were purchased in formal retail settings in three major cities in each of 14 LMIC: Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, the Philippines, Russia, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine and Vietnam. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3240 packs were purchased (range = 58 packs in Egypt to 505 in Russia). Packs were categorized as 'legal' or 'illicit' based on the presence of a health warning label from the country of purchase and existence of a tax stamp; 2468 legal and 772 illicit packs were in the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Descriptive statistics stratified by country, city and neighborhood socio-economic status were used to explore the association between price and legal status of cigarettes. FINDINGS: The number of illicit cigarettes in the sample setting was small (n < 5) in five countries (Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia) and excluded from analysis. In the remaining nine countries, the median purchase price of legal cigarettes ranged from US$0.32 in Pakistan (n = 72) to US$3.24 in Turkey (n = 242); median purchase price of illicit cigarettes ranged from US$0.80 in Ukraine (n = 14) to US$3.08 in India (n = 41). The difference in median price between legal and illicit packs as a percentage of the price of legal packs ranged from 32% in Philippines to 455% in Bangladesh. Median purchase price of illicit cigarette packs was higher than that of legal cigarette packs in six countries (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam). Median purchase price of illicit packs was lower than that of legal packs in Turkey, Ukraine and China. CONCLUSIONS: The median purchase price of illicit cigarettes is higher than that of legal cigarette packs in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia appear to have few or no illicit cigarettes for purchase from formal, urban retailers.