Back to basics: A mediation analysis approach to addressing the fundamental questions of integrated care evaluations.

Health systems around the world are aiming to improve the integration of health and social care services to deliver better care for patients. Existing evaluations have focused exclusively on the impact of care integration on health outcomes and found little effect. That suggests the need to take a step back and ask whether integrated care programmes actually lead to greater clinical integration of care and indeed whether greater integration is associated with improved health outcomes. We propose a mediation analysis approach to address these two fundamental questions when evaluating integrated care programmes. We illustrate our approach by re-examining the impact of an English integrated care program on clinical integration and assessing whether greater integration is causally associated with fewer admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions. We measure clinical integration using a concentration index of outpatient referrals at the general practice level. While we find that the scheme increased integration of primary and secondary care, clinical integration did not mediate a decrease in unplanned hospital admissions. Our analysis emphasizes the need to better understand the hypothesized causal impact of integration on health outcomes and demonstrates how mediation analysis can inform future evaluations and program design.

A picture of health: determining the core population served by an urban NHS hospital trust and understanding the key health needs.

BACKGROUND: NHS hospitals do not have clearly defined geographic populations to whom they provide care, with patients able to attend any hospital. Identifying a core population for a hospital trust, particularly those in urban areas where there are multiple providers and high population churn, is essential to understanding local key health needs especially given the move to integrated care systems. This can enable effective planning and delivery of preventive interventions and community engagement, rather than simply treating those presenting to services. In this article we describe a practical method for identifying a hospital's catchment population based on where potential patients are most likely to reside, and describe that population's size, demographic and social profile, and the key health needs. METHODS: A 30% proportional flow method was used to identify a catchment population using an acute hospital trust in West London as an example. Records of all hospital attendances between 1st April 2017 and 31st March 2018 were analysed using Hospital Episode Statistics. Any Lower Layer Super Output Areas where 30% or more of residents who attended any hospital for care did so at the example trust were assigned to the catchment area. Publicly available local and national datasets were then applied to identify and describe the population's key health needs. RESULTS: A catchment comprising 617,709 people, of an equal gender-split (50.4% male) and predominantly working age (15 to 64 years) population was identified. Thirty nine point six percent of residents identified as being from Black and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups, a similar proportion that reported being born abroad, with over 85 languages spoken. Health indicators were estimated, including: a healthy life expectancy difference of over twenty years; bowel cancer screening coverage of 48.8%; chlamydia diagnosis rates of 2,136 per 100,000; prevalence of visible dental decay among five-year-olds of 27.9%. CONCLUSIONS: We define a blueprint by which a catchment can be defined for a hospital trust and demonstrate the value a hospital-view of the local population could provide in understanding local health needs and enabling population-level health improvement interventions. While an individual approach allows tailoring to local context and need, there could be an efficiency saving were such public health information made routinely and regularly available for every NHS hospital.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Emergency Adult Surgical Patients and Surgical Services: An International Multi-center Cohort Study and Department Survey.

OBJECTIVES: The PREDICT study aimed to determine how the COVID-19 pandemic affected surgical services and surgical patients and to identify predictors of outcomes in this cohort. BACKGROUND: High mortality rates were reported for surgical patients with COVID-19 in the early stages of the pandemic. However, the indirect impact of the pandemic on this cohort is not understood, and risk predictors are yet to be identified. METHODS: PREDICT is an international longitudinal cohort study comprising surgical patients presenting to hospital between March and August 2020, conducted alongside a survey of staff redeployment and departmental restructuring. A subgroup analysis of 3176 adult emergency patients, recruited by 55 teams across 18 countries is presented. RESULTS: Among adult emergency surgical patients, all-cause in-hospital mortality (IHM) was 3.6%, compared to 15.5% for those with COVID-19. However, only 14.1% received a COVID-19 test on admission in March, increasing to 76.5% by July.Higher Clinical Frailty Scale scores (CFS >7 aOR 18.87), ASA grade above 2 (aOR 4.29), and COVID-19 infection (aOR 5.12) were independently associated with significantly increased IHM.The peak months of the first wave were independently associated with significantly higher IHM (March aOR 4.34; April aOR 4.25; May aOR 3.97), compared to non-peak months.During the study, UK operating theatre capacity decreased by a mean of 63.6% with a concomitant 27.3% reduction in surgical staffing. CONCLUSION: The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted surgical patients, both directly through co-morbid infection and indirectly as shown by increasing mortality in peak months, irrespective of COVID-19 status.Higher CFS scores and ASA grades strongly predict outcomes in surgical patients and are an important risk assessment tool during the pandemic.

Variation in hypertension clinical practice guidelines: a global comparison.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the largest single contributor to the global burden of disease, affecting an estimated 1.39 billion people worldwide. Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) can aid in the effective management of this common condition, however, inconsistencies exist between CPGs, and the extent of this is unknown. Understanding the differences in CPG recommendations across income settings may provide an important means of understanding some of the global variations in clinical outcomes related to hypertension. AIMS: This study aims to analyse the variation between hypertension CPGs globally. It aims to assess the variation in three areas: diagnostic threshold and staging, treatment and target blood pressure (BP) recommendations in hypertension. METHODS: A search was conducted on the MEDLINE repository to identify national and international hypertension CPGs from 2010 to May 2020. An additional country-specific grey-literature search was conducted for all countries and territories of the world as identified by the World Bank. Data describing the diagnosis, staging, treatment and target blood pressure were extracted from CPGs, and variations between CPGs for these domains were analysed. RESULTS: Forty-eight CPGs from across all World Bank income settings were selected for analysis. Ninety-six per cent of guidelines defined hypertension as a clinic-based BP of ≥140/90 mmHg, and 87% of guidelines recommended a target BP of < 140/90 mmHg. In the pharmacological treatment of hypertension, eight different first-step, 17 different second-step and six different third-step drug recommendations were observed. Low-income countries preferentially recommended diuretics (63%) in the first-step treatment, whilst high-income countries offered more choice between antihypertensive classes. Forty-four per cent of guidelines, of which 71% were from higher-income contexts recommended initiating treatment with dual-drug therapy at BP 160/100 mmHg or higher. CONCLUSION: This study found that CPGs remained largely consistent in the definition, staging and target BP recommendations for hypertension. Extensive variation was observed in treatment recommendations, particularly for second-line therapy. Variation existed between income settings; low-income countries prescribed cheaper drugs, offered less clinician choice in medications and initiated dual therapy at later stages than higher-income countries. Future research exploring the underlying drivers of this variation may improve outcomes for hypertensive patients across clinical contexts.

May Measurement Month 2019: an analysis of blood pressure screening results in the Philippines.

The Philippine Society of Hypertension (PSH) took part again in the annual May Measurement Month 2019 (MMM19) blood pressure (BP) measurement campaign to raise awareness of hypertension especially in those who are not aware of their condition. The MMM19 standard protocol designed by the International Society of Hypertension was used during screening. These included the collection of basic data on demography, lifestyle, and environmental factors. Standardized sitting BP measurements were taken two to three times, using an automated BP apparatus and were inputted either in the MMM19 app or data were recorded in paper form and manually transferred to Excel spreadsheets by encoders supervised by the PSH. A total of 89 941 participated through opportunistic convenience sampling. After multiple imputation, a total of 47 925 (53.3%) participants had hypertension (≥140/90 mmHg or on antihypertensive medication). Of this number, 31 151 (65%) were aware that they had high BP and 30 120 (62.8%) were on antihypertensive medications. Of the 30 120 participants on antihypertensive medications, only 18 373 (61.1%) had controlled BP (<140/90 mmHg). Being overweight or obese were significant predictors of high BP. Other predictors of high systolic BP and diastolic BP were alcohol intake, smoking, and a previous history of hypertension in pregnancy, while pregnant participants had significantly lower BP. The MMM19 campaign succeeded in raising awareness of high BP in our country, and the opportunistic sampling enhanced a sense of people empowerment by their knowing how easy it is to detect high BP and thereby enabling the prevention of long-term health complications. The higher BP control in the MMM19 hypertensive individuals possibly attests to the success of the previous MMM17 and MMM18 campaigns.

The factors influencing clinician use of hypertension guidelines in different resource settings: a qualitative study investigating clinicians' perspectives and experiences.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension accounts for the greatest burden of disease worldwide, yet hypertension awareness and control rates are suboptimal, especially within low- and middle-income countries. Guidelines can enable consistency of care and improve health outcomes. A small body of studies investigating clinicians' perceptions and implementation of hypertension guidelines exists, mostly focussed on higher income settings. This study aims to explore how hypertension guidelines are used by clinicians across different resource settings, and the factors influencing their use. METHODS: A qualitative approach was employed using convenience sampling and in-depth semi-structured interviews. Seventeen medical doctors were interviewed over video or telephone call from March to August 2020. Two clinicians worked in low-income countries, ten in middle-income countries, and five in high-income countries. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded inductively. Reflexive thematic analysis was used. RESULTS: Themes were generated at three levels at which clinicians perceived influencing factors to be operating: healthcare worker, healthcare worker interactions with patients, and the wider health system. Within each level, influencing factors were described as barriers to and facilitators of guideline use. Variation in factors occurred across income settings. At the healthcare worker level, usability of guidelines, trust in guidelines, attitudes and views about guidelines' purpose, and relevance to patient populations were identified as themes. Influencing factors at the health system level were accessibility of equipment and medications, workforce, and access to healthcare settings. Influences at the patient level were clinician perceived patient motivation and health literacy, and access to, and cost of treatment, although these represented doctors' perceptions rather than patient perceived factors. CONCLUSIONS: This study adds a high level global view to previous studies investigating clinician perspectives on hypertension guideline use. Guidelines should be evidence-based, regularly updated and attention should be given to increasing applicability to LMICs and a range of healthcare professionals.

Using a Secure, Continually Updating, Web Source Processing Pipeline to Support the Real-Time Data Synthesis and Analysis of Scientific Literature: Development and Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: The scale and quality of the global scientific response to the COVID-19 pandemic have unquestionably saved lives. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has also triggered an unprecedented "infodemic"; the velocity and volume of data production have overwhelmed many key stakeholders such as clinicians and policy makers, as they have been unable to process structured and unstructured data for evidence-based decision making. Solutions that aim to alleviate this data synthesis-related challenge are unable to capture heterogeneous web data in real time for the production of concomitant answers and are not based on the high-quality information in responses to a free-text query. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this project is to build a generic, real-time, continuously updating curation platform that can support the data synthesis and analysis of a scientific literature framework. Our secondary objective is to validate this platform and the curation methodology for COVID-19-related medical literature by expanding the COVID-19 Open Research Dataset via the addition of new, unstructured data. METHODS: To create an infrastructure that addresses our objectives, the PanSurg Collaborative at Imperial College London has developed a unique data pipeline based on a web crawler extraction methodology. This data pipeline uses a novel curation methodology that adopts a human-in-the-loop approach for the characterization of quality, relevance, and key evidence across a range of scientific literature sources. RESULTS: REDASA (Realtime Data Synthesis and Analysis) is now one of the world's largest and most up-to-date sources of COVID-19-related evidence; it consists of 104,000 documents. By capturing curators' critical appraisal methodologies through the discrete labeling and rating of information, REDASA rapidly developed a foundational, pooled, data science data set of over 1400 articles in under 2 weeks. These articles provide COVID-19-related information and represent around 10% of all papers about COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: This data set can act as ground truth for the future implementation of a live, automated systematic review. The three benefits of REDASA's design are as follows: (1) it adopts a user-friendly, human-in-the-loop methodology by embedding an efficient, user-friendly curation platform into a natural language processing search engine; (2) it provides a curated data set in the JavaScript Object Notation format for experienced academic reviewers' critical appraisal choices and decision-making methodologies; and (3) due to the wide scope and depth of its web crawling method, REDASA has already captured one of the world's largest COVID-19-related data corpora for searches and curation.

Effectiveness and safety of pulse oximetry in remote patient monitoring of patients with COVID-19: a systematic review.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led health systems to increase the use of tools for monitoring and triaging patients remotely. In this systematic review, we aim to assess the effectiveness and safety of pulse oximetry in remote patient monitoring (RPM) of patients at home with COVID-19. We searched five databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, medRxiv, and bioRxiv) from database inception to April 15, 2021, and included feasibility studies, clinical trials, and observational studies, including preprints. We found 561 studies, of which 13 were included in our narrative synthesis. These 13 studies were all observational cohorts and involved a total of 2908 participants. A meta-analysis was not feasible owing to the heterogeneity of the outcomes reported in the included studies. Our systematic review substantiates the safety and potential of pulse oximetry for monitoring patients at home with COVID-19, identifying the risk of deterioration and the need for advanced care. The use of pulse oximetry can potentially save hospital resources for patients who might benefit the most from care escalation; however, we could not identify explicit evidence for the effect of RPM with pulse oximetry on health outcomes compared with other monitoring models such as virtual wards, regular monitoring consultations, and online or paper diaries to monitor changes in symptoms and vital signs. Based on our findings, we make 11 recommendations across the three Donabedian model domains and highlight three specific measurements for setting up an RPM system with pulse oximetry.

Characteristics and predictors of acute and chronic post-COVID syndrome: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: A significant proportion of individuals experience lingering and debilitating symptoms following acute COVID-19 infection. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) have coined the persistent cluster of symptoms as post-COVID syndrome. This has been further sub-categorised into acute post-COVID syndrome for symptoms persisting three weeks beyond initial infection and chronic post-COVID syndrome for symptoms persisting beyond twelve weeks. The aim of this review was to detail the prevalence of clinical features and identify potential predictors for acute and chronic post-COVID syndrome. METHODS: A systematic literature search, with no language restrictions, was performed to identify studies detailing characteristics and outcomes related to survivorship of post-COVID syndrome. The last search was performed on 6 March 2021 and all pre-dating published articles included. A means of proportion meta-analysis was performed to quantify characteristics of acute and chronic post-COVID syndrome. Study quality was assessed with a specific risk of bias tool. PROSPERO Registration: CRD42020222855. FINDINGS: A total of 43 studies met the eligibility criteria; of which, 38 allowed for meta-analysis. Fatigue and dyspnoea were the most prevalent symptoms in acute post-COVID (0·37 and 0·35) and fatigue and sleep disturbance in chronic post-COVID syndrome (0·48 and 0·44), respectively. The available evidence is generally of poor quality, with considerable risk of bias, and are of observational design. INTERPRETATION: In conclusion, this review highlights that flaws in data capture and interpretation, noted in the uncertainty within our meta-analysis, affect the applicability of current knowledge. Policy makers and researchers must focus on understanding the impact of this condition on individuals and society with appropriate funding initiatives and global collaborative research.

Insights from a global snapshot of the change in elective colorectal practice due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to understand the impact of COVID-19 on colorectal cancer care globally and determine drivers of variation. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate COVID-19 impact on colorectal cancer services globally and identify predictors for behaviour change. DESIGN: An online survey of colorectal cancer service change globally in May and June 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Attending or consultant surgeons involved in the care of patients with colorectal cancer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in the delivery of diagnostics (diagnostic endoscopy), imaging for staging, therapeutics and surgical technique in the management of colorectal cancer. Predictors of change included increased hospital bed stress, critical care bed stress, mortality and world region. RESULTS: 191 responses were included from surgeons in 159 centers across 46 countries, demonstrating widespread service reduction with global variation. Diagnostic endoscopy was reduced in 93% of responses, even with low hospital stress and mortality; whilst rising critical care bed stress triggered complete cessation (p = 0.02). Availability of CT and MRI fell by 40-41%, with MRI significantly reduced with high hospital stress. Neoadjuvant therapy use in rectal cancer changed in 48% of responses, where centers which had ceased surgery increased its use (62 vs 30%, p = 0.04) as did those with extended delays to surgery (p<0.001). High hospital and critical care bed stresses were associated with surgeons forming more stomas (p<0.04), using more experienced operators (p<0.003) and decreased laparoscopy use (critical care bed stress only, p<0.001). Patients were also more actively prioritized for resection, with increased importance of co-morbidities and ICU need. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with severe restrictions in the availability of colorectal cancer services on a global scale, with significant variation in behaviours which cannot be fully accounted for by hospital burden or mortality.

Transitions of care across hospital settings in patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic, inflammatory disorder characterised by both intestinal and extra-intestinal pathology. Patients may receive both emergency and elective care from several providers, often in different hospital settings. Poorly managed transitions of care between providers can lead to inefficiencies in care and patient safety issues. To ensure that the sharing of patient information between providers is appropriate, timely, accurate and secure, effective data-sharing infrastructure needs to be developed. To optimise inter-hospital data-sharing for IBD patients, we need to better understand patterns of hospital encounters in this group. AIM: To determine the type and location of hospital services accessed by IBD patients in England. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study using Hospital Episode Statistics, a large administrative patient data set from the National Health Service in England. Adult patients with a diagnosis of IBD following admission to hospital were followed over a 2-year period to determine the proportion of care accessed at the same hospital providing their outpatient IBD care, defined as their 'home provider'. Secondary outcome measures included the geographic distribution of patient-sharing, regional and age-related differences in accessing services, and type and frequency of outpatient encounters. RESULTS: 95055 patients accessed hospital services on 1760156 occasions over a 2-year follow-up period. The proportion of these encounters with their identified IBD 'home provider' was 73.3%, 87.8% and 83.1% for accident and emergency, inpatient and outpatient encounters respectively. Patients living in metropolitan centres and younger patients were less likely to attend their 'home provider' for hospital services. The most commonly attended specialty services were gastroenterology, general surgery and ophthalmology. CONCLUSION: Transitions of care between secondary care settings are common for patients with IBD. Effective systems of data-sharing and care integration are essential to providing safe and effective care for patients. Geographic and age-related patterns of care transitions identified in this study may be used to guide interventions aimed at improving continuity of care.

Guiding interoperable electronic health records through patient-sharing networks.

Effective sharing of clinical information between care providers is a critical component of a safe, efficient health system. National data-sharing systems may be costly, politically contentious and do not reflect local patterns of care delivery. This study examines hospital attendances in England from 2013 to 2015 to identify instances of patient sharing between hospitals. Of 19.6 million patients receiving care from 155 hospital care providers, 130 million presentations were identified. On 14.7 million occasions (12%), patients attended a different hospital to the one they attended on their previous interaction. A network of hospitals was constructed based on the frequency of patient sharing between hospitals which was partitioned using the Louvain algorithm into ten distinct data-sharing communities, improving the continuity of data sharing in such instances from 0 to 65-95%. Locally implemented data-sharing communities of hospitals may achieve effective accessibility of clinical information without a large-scale national interoperable information system.

Comparison of cancer diagnosis recording between the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Cancer Registry and Hospital Episodes Statistics.

INTRODUCTION: The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) is a large electronic dataset of primary care medical records. For the purpose of epidemiological studies, it is necessary to ensure accuracy and completeness of cancer diagnoses in CPRD. METHOD: Cases included had a colorectal, oesophagogastric (OG), breast, prostate or lung cancer diagnosis recorded in a least one of CPRD, Cancer Registry (CR) or Hospital Episodes Statistics(HES) between 2000 and 2013. Agreement in diagnosis between the datasets, difference in dates, survival at one and five-years, and whether patient characteristics differed according to the dataset or the timing of diagnosis were investigated. RESULTS: 116,769 patients were included. For each cancer, approximately 10% of cases identified from CPRD or HES were not confirmed in the CR. 25.5% colorectal, 26.0% OG, 8.9% breast, 32.0% lung and 18.6% prostate cases identified from the CR were missing in CPRD. The diagnosis date was recorded later in CPRD compared with CR for each cancer, ranging from 81.1% for prostate to 59.6% for colorectal, especially if the diagnosis was an emergency. Compared with the CR and HES, the adjusted risk of a missing diagnosis in CPRD was significantly higher if the patient was older, had more co-morbidities or was diagnosed as an emergency. Survival at one and five-years was highest for CPRD. CONCLUSION: Patient demographics and the route of diagnosis impact the accuracy of cancer diagnosis in CPRD. Although CPRD provides invaluable primary care data, patients should ideally be identified from the CR to reduce bias.