Multiple Sclerosis Incidence and Prevalence Trends in the Province of Padua, Northeast Italy, 1965-2018.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies, dating back to the 1960s disclosed a progressive increase in multiple sclerosis (MS) incidence and prevalence in the Province of Padua. To further analyze whether this trend is the effect of the improved diagnostic procedures or is primarily related to a real increase risk of MS, we analyzed MS incidence and prevalence of the 5-year period 2011-2015. METHODS: Patients with a diagnosis of MS or clinically isolated syndrome highly suggestive of MS were included in the study. All available sources of clinical and administrative information were evaluated. Mean annual incidence in the 5-year period 2011-2015 and the prevalence on December 31, 2015 were calculated. RESULTS: The 2011-2015 mean incidence was 6.5/100,000/year, 7.9 for females, 4.1 for males. The overall prevalence was 182/100,000, 241 for females, 116 for males. Compared to the 2000-2009 period, mean age at onset, onset-diagnosis delay and F/M ratio did not significantly change. Since the 1960s, incidence and prevalence of MS linearly increased with no interposed plateau periods. CONCLUSIONS: MS incidence and prevalence further and significantly increased in the period 2011-2015. Our 1965-2015 data indicate a real increased risk of MS and stress a role of exogenous factors in MS susceptibility.

Association of Multiple Sclerosis with PM 2.5 levels. Further evidence from the highly polluted area of Padua Province, Italy.

BACKGROUND: Fifty years of epidemiological survey and intra-regional differences in prevalence suggest that environmental factors may be associated with increased multiple sclerosis (MS) risk in Northern Italy. Based on the findings of a previous study carried out in the highly polluted Padan Plain, we further explored the relationship between PM2.5 levels and MS prevalence by comparing bordering areas characterized by quite different environmental conditions, namely the Municipality of Padua and the special protected zone (SPZ) of the Euganean Hills Regional Park, located 15 km from the City. METHODS: Three territories were identified; 1) the SPZ, extending over an area of 15.096 hectares and having a total population of 23,980 inhabitants, 2) the urban area of Padua, with a total population of 210,440 inhabitants and repeatedly recognized by the European Invironmental Agency as one of the most polluted Cities of Europe, 3) the Intermediate Zone (IZ), i.e., the area in between the previous two, including part of the urban territories of eight villages adjacent to the SPZ. Demographic and socio-economical data were obtained from official government sources (www.istat.it and www.regione.veneto.it). All Italian MS patients residing in these three areas on December 31, 2018, were registered. PM2.5 concentrations (annual average 1998-2018, µg/m3) were measured by satellite. The correlation between PM2.5 concentrations and MS prevalence was analysed. RESULTS: MS prevalence was significantly higher in Padua City (265/100.000) compared to both the SPZ of the Euganean Hills Park (160/100,000; p < 0.0001) and the IZ (194.4/100,000). Prevalence strongly associated with the annual average concentration of PM2.5 (r = 0.89 p < 0.00001). CONCLUSION: In the Province of Padua, one of the most polluted areas of Europe, MS prevalence is strongly associated with PM2.5 exposure. Our findings suggest that air pollutants may be one of the possible environmental risk factors for MS in the Veneto Region of Italy.