Particulate matter and COVID-19 excess deaths: Decomposing long-term exposure and short-term effects.

We investigate the time-varying effect of particulate matter (PM) on COVID-19 deaths in Italian municipalities. We find that the lagged moving averages of PM2.5 and PM10 are significantly related to higher excess deceases during the first wave of the disease, after controlling, among other factors, for time-varying mobility, regional and municipality fixed effects, the nonlinear contagion trend, and lockdown effects. Our findings are confirmed after accounting for potential endogeneity, heterogeneous pandemic dynamics, and spatial correlation through pooled and fixed-effect instrumental variable estimates using municipal and provincial data. In addition, we decompose the overall PM effect and find that both pre-COVID long-term exposure and short-term variation during the pandemic matter. In terms of magnitude, we observe that a 1 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 can lead to up to 20% more deaths in Italian municipalities, which is equivalent to a 5.9% increase in mortality rate.

Understanding the heterogeneity of COVID-19 deaths and contagions: The role of air pollution and lockdown decisions.

The uneven geographical distribution of the novel coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19) in Italy is a puzzle given the intense flow of movements among the different geographical areas before lockdown decisions. To shed light on it, we test the effect of the quality of air (as measured by particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide) and lockdown restrictions on daily adverse COVID-19 outcomes during the first pandemic wave in the country. We find that air pollution is positively correlated with adverse outcomes of the pandemic, with lockdown being strongly significant and more effective in reducing deceases in more polluted areas. Results are robust to different methods including cross-section, pooled and fixed-effect panel regressions (controlling for spatial correlation), instrumental variable regressions, and difference-in-differences estimates of lockdown decisions through predicted counterfactual trends. They are consistent with the consolidated body of literature in previous medical studies suggesting that poor quality of air creates chronic exposure to adverse outcomes from respiratory diseases. The estimated correlation does not change when accounting for other factors such as temperature, commuting flows, quality of regional health systems, share of public transport users, population density, the presence of Chinese community, and proxies for industry breakdown such as the share of small (artisan) firms. Our findings provide suggestions for investigating uneven geographical distribution patterns in other countries, and have implications for environmental and lockdown policies.

Air quality and COVID-19 adverse outcomes: Divergent views and experimental findings.

BACKGROUND: The questioned link between air pollution and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spreading or related mortality represents a hot topic that has immediately been regarded in the light of divergent views. A first "school of thought" advocates that what matters are only standard epidemiological variables (i.e. frequency of interactions in proportion of the viral charge). A second school of thought argues that co-factors such as quality of air play an important role too. METHODS: We analyzed available literature concerning the link between air quality, as measured by different pollutants and a number of COVID-19 outcomes, such as number of positive cases, deaths, and excess mortality rates. We reviewed several studies conducted worldwide and discussing many different methodological approaches aimed at investigating causality associations. RESULTS: Our paper reviewed the most recent empirical researches documenting the existence of a huge evidence produced worldwide concerning the role played by air pollution on health in general and on COVID-19 outcomes in particular. These results support both research hypotheses, i.e. long-term exposure effects and short-term consequences (including the hypothesis of particulate matter acting as viral "carrier") according to the two schools of thought, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The link between air pollution and COVID-19 outcomes is strong and robust as resulting from many different research methodologies. Policy implications should be drawn from a "rational" assessment of these findings as "not taking any action" represents an action itself.

The hidden cost of humanization: Individuating information reduces prosocial behavior toward in-group members.

This paper reports robust experimental evidence that humanization-in the form of individuating information about another's personal preferences-leads to decreased prosocial behavior toward in-group members. Previous research shows that this information increases prosocial behavior toward dehumanized out-group members. The consequences for in-group members, however, are less well understood. Using methods from social psychology and behavioral economics, four experiments show that individuating information decreases pro-social behavior toward in-group members in a variety of settings (charitable giving, altruistic punishment, and trust games). Moreover, this effect results from decreased reliance on group membership labels, and not from other potential explanations like the induction of new group identities. Understanding these effects sheds light on the motives behind intergroup conflict, which may not result from a difference in social perception (i.e., humanized in-groups and dehumanized out-groups), but rather from biases associated with group membership (i.e. in-group favoritism and out-group discrimination) that are eliminated by individuating information. Together, these results indicate that humanization carries a hidden cost for in-group members by disrupting group identities that would otherwise make them targets of altruistic actions.

Fertility and Life Satisfaction in Rural Ethiopia.

Despite recent strong interest in the link between fertility and subjective well-being, the focus has centered on developed countries. For poorer countries, in contrast, the relationship remains rather elusive. Using a well-established panel survey-the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (ERHS)-we investigate the empirical relationship between fertility and life satisfaction in rural Ethiopia, the largest landlocked country in Africa. Consistent with the fertility theories for developing countries and with the sociodemographic characteristics of rural Ethiopia, we hypothesize that this relationship varies by gender and across life stages, being more positive for men and for parents in old age. Indeed, our results suggest that older men benefit the most in terms of life satisfaction from having a large number of children, while the recent birth of a child is detrimental for the subjective well-being of women at reproductive ages. We address endogeneity issues by using lagged life satisfaction in ordinary least squares regressions, through fixed-effects estimation and the use of instrumental variables.

Social and political trust diverge during a crisis.

This study shows that social and political trust may diverge in the face of shared threats, and that this pattern is driven by negative information about crisis management. Leveraging a three-wave panel survey and an information-provision experiment in the USA during the COVID-19 crisis, our research reveals that negative perceptions of pandemic management lead to a decline in political trust and a parallel increase in social trust. This dynamic is pronounced among government supporters, who, confronted with COVID-19 challenges, experience a substantial erosion of political trust. Simultaneously, there is a notable rise in social trust within this group. Our analysis suggests that, as government supporters attributed more responsibility for the crisis to their political leader, political trust was supplanted by social trust. Disenchanted voters, feeling let down by institutions, sought support in society. Both the survey and the experiment underscore that societal shocks can prompt individuals to shift from relying on formal institutions to informal ones as a coping strategy. This research contributes a generalizable framework explaining how negative perceptions of crisis management can lead societies to substitute political trust with social trust, advancing our understanding of societal responses to shared threats and adaptive strategies during crises.

Excess mortality and protected areas during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Italian municipalities.

There is widespread debate on the drivers of heterogeneity of adverse COVID-19 pandemic outcomes and, more specifically, on the role played by context-specific factors. We contribute to this literature by testing the role of environmental factors as measured by environmentally protected areas. We test our research hypothesis by showing that the difference between the number of daily deaths per 1,000 inhabitants in 2020 and the 2018-19 average during the pandemic period is significantly lower in Italian municipalities located in environmentally protected areas such as national parks, regional parks, or Environmentally Protected Zones. After controlling for fixed effects and various concurring factors, municipalities with higher share of environmentally protected areas show significantly lower mortality during the pandemic than municipalities that do not benefit from such environmental amenities.

Was Banfield right? New insights from a nationwide laboratory experiment.

Since the pioneering study by Banfield, the North-South gap in Italian social capital has been considered by international scholars as an example of how cultural diversity within a country can generate different developmental outcomes. Most studies, however, suffer from limited external validity and measurement error. This paper exploits a new and representative online lab-experiment to assess social-capital patterns in Italy. Unlike previous experiments, we do not inform participants about the geographic origins of their counterparts. This feature allows us to assess the North-South gap in universal, as opposed to parochial, behavior. Results suggest that Southerners and Northerners do not systematically differ in generalized prosocial preferences. Only trustworthiness is higher among. Northerners, while they are statistically similar to Southerners in many other economic preferences such as cooperation, trust, expected trustworthiness, altruism, and risk tolerance. We also show that the gap in trustworthiness stems from the lower reciprocity of Southerners in response to large transfers, and it is characterized by the intergenerational transmission of norms. Possible policy implications are discussed.

Negative media portrayals of immigrants increase ingroup favoritism and hostile physiological and emotional reactions.

Anti-immigration rhetoric in the mass media has intensified over the last two decades, potentially decreasing prosocial behavior and increasing outgroup hostility toward immigrants, and fostering ingroup favoritism toward natives. We aim to understand the effects of negative and positive discourses about immigration on prosociality at different levels of societal ethnic diversity. In two studies (student sample, nationally representative sample), we conduct a survey and a 3X3 between-subject experiment, including money-incentivized behavioral games measuring prosociality. We manipulate media representations of immigrants and the probability of interacting with immigrants (the latter measuring diversity). Results show that negative news affects prosociality as a function of the probability of interacting with immigrants. Negative portrayals increase altruism and trustworthiness in ethnically homogenous settings relative to unknown and ethnically-mixed contexts. These results are stronger for right-wing and high-prejudice respondents. Moreover, negative media portrayals of immigrants increase the testosterone-cortisol ratio, which is a proxy for proneness to social aggression. Negative news also increases outgroup-related perceived health risk, outgroup anxiety and outgroup threat less in ethnically-homogeneous contexts. Overall, negative portrayals of immigrants generate physiological and emotional hostility toward the outgroup, and ingroup favoritism in economic transactions, possibly determining efficiency losses in ethnically-diverse markets, relative to ethnically-homogeneous markets.

Blessed are the first: The long-term effect of birth order on trust.

Acknowledging childhood as a crucial period for the formation of social preferences, we investigate whether the order of birth predicts trust in adult life. We find that laterborns trust on average 5% less than their older siblings, independently from personality traits, family ties, risk aversion and parental inputs. Family random- and fixed-effects estimates suggest that the variation in trust is mostly explained by within- rather than between-family characteristics. The effect of birth order is mediated by education outcomes only for women, while it is moderated by mother's education for the entire sample, thereby leading to relevant policy implications.

The impact of health expenditure on the number of chronic diseases.

We investigate the impact of health expenditure on health outcomes on a large sample of Europeans aged above 50 using individual and regional level data. We find a negative and significant effect of lagged health expenditure on subsequent changes in the number of chronic diseases. This effect varies according to age, health behavior, gender, income, and education. Our empirical findings are confirmed also when health expenditure is instrumented with parliament political composition.