Biomarker, Imaging, and Clinical Factors Associated With Overt and Covert Stroke in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation is a major risk factor for stroke and silent brain infarcts. We studied whether a multimodal approach offers additional insights to the CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting stroke or new brain infarcts on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) over a 2-year follow-up. METHODS: Swiss-AF is a prospective, multicenter cohort study of patients with known atrial fibrillation. We included patients with available brain MRI both at enrollment and 2 years later. The dates of the baseline and follow-up visits ranged from March 2014 to November 2020. The primary outcome was assessed 2 years after baseline and was defined as a composite of clinically identified stroke or any new brain infarct on the 2-year MRI. We compared a multivariable logistic regression model including prespecified clinical, biomarker, and baseline MRI variables to the CHA2DS2-VASc score. RESULTS: We included 1232 patients, 89.8% of them taking oral anticoagulants. The primary outcome occurred in 78 patients (6.3%). The following baseline variables were included in the final multivariate model and were significantly associated with the primary outcome: white matter lesion volume in milliliters (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.91 [95% CI, 1.45-2.56]), NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; aOR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.20-2.63]), GDF-15 (growth differentiation factor-15; aOR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.11-2.53]), serum creatinine (aOR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.02-2.22]), IL (interleukin)-6 (aOR, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.00-1.86]), and hFABP (heart-type fatty acid-binding protein; aOR, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.31-0.73]). Overall performance and discrimination of the new model was superior to that of the CHA2DS2-VASc score (C statistic, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.77-0.87] versus 0.64 [95% CI, 0.58-0.70]). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with atrial fibrillation, a model incorporating white matter lesion volume on baseline MRI and selected blood markers yielded new insights on residual stroke risk despite a high proportion of patients on oral anticoagulants. This may be relevant to develop further preventive measures.

Serum neurofilament light in atrial fibrillation: clinical, neuroimaging and cognitive correlates.

Emerging evidence suggests that atrial fibrillation is associated with cognitive dysfunction independently of stroke, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. In this cross-sectional analysis from the Swiss-atrial fibrillation Study (NCT02105844), we investigated the association of serum neurofilament light protein, a neuronal injury biomarker, with (i) the CHA2DS2-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age 65-74 or >75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke or transient ischaemic attack, vascular disease, sex), clinical and neuroimaging parameters and (ii) cognitive measures in atrial fibrillation patients. We measured neurofilament light in serum using an ultrasensitive single-molecule array assay in a sample of 1379 atrial fibrillation patients (mean age, 72 years; female, 27%). Ischaemic infarcts, small vessel disease markers and normalized brain volume were assessed on brain MRI. Cognitive testing included the Montreal cognitive assessment, trail-making test, semantic verbal fluency and digit symbol substitution test, which were summarized using principal component analysis. Results were analysed using univariable and multivariable linear regression. Neurofilament light was associated with the CHA2DS2-VASc score, with an average 19.2% [95% confidence interval (17.2%, 21.3%)] higher neurofilament per unit CHA2DS2-VASc increase. This association persisted after adjustment for age and MRI characteristics. In multivariable analyses, clinical parameters associated with neurofilament light were higher age [32.5% (27.2%, 38%) neurofilament increase per 10 years], diabetes mellitus, heart failure and peripheral artery disease [26.8% (16.8%, 37.6%), 15.7% (8.1%, 23.9%) and 19.5% (6.8%, 33.7%) higher neurofilament, respectively]. Mean arterial pressure showed a curvilinear association with neurofilament, with evidence for both an inverse linear and a U-shaped association. MRI characteristics associated with neurofilament were white matter lesion volume and volume of large non-cortical or cortical infarcts [4.3% (1.8%, 6.8%) and 5.5% (2.5%, 8.7%) neurofilament increase per unit increase in log-volume of the respective lesion], as well as normalized brain volume [4.9% (1.7%, 8.1%) higher neurofilament per 100 cm3 smaller brain volume]. Neurofilament light was inversely associated with all cognitive measures in univariable analyses. The effect sizes diminished after adjusting for clinical and MRI variables, but the association with the first principal component was still evident. Our results suggest that in atrial fibrillation patients, neuronal loss measured by serum neurofilament light is associated with age, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, blood pressure and vascular brain lesions, and inversely correlates with normalized brain volume and cognitive function.