Pandemic preparedness and health system resilience in 14 European countries.

Objective: To assess national pandemic preparedness and response plans from a health system perspective to determine the extent to which implementation strategies that support health system performance have been included. Methods: We systematically mapped pandemic preparedness and response implementation strategies that improve resilience to pandemics onto the Health System Performance Assessment Framework for Universal Health Coverage. Using this framework, we conducted a document analysis of 14 publicly available national influenza pandemic preparedness plans, submitted to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, to assess how well health system functions are accounted for in each plan. Findings: Implementation strategies found in national influenza pandemic preparedness plans do not systematically consider all health system functions. Instead, they mostly focus on specific aspects of governance. In contrast, little to no mention is made of implementation strategies that aim to strengthen health financing. There was also a lack of implementation strategies to strengthen the health workforce, ensure availability of medical equipment and infrastructure, govern the generation of resources and ensure delivery of public health services. Conclusion: While national influenza pandemic preparedness plans often include provisions to support health system governance, implementation strategies that support other health system functions, namely, resource generation, service delivery, and in particular, financing, are given less attention. These oversights in key planning documents may undermine health system resilience when public health emergencies occur.

Consumption and tax gains attributable to Covid-19 vaccinations in 12 EU countries with low vaccination rates.

BACKGROUND: The Covid-19 pandemic is an economic and a health crisis. Households reduced consumption expenditures as large-scale physical distancing measures, lower disposable incomes and fear of infection when engaging in many types of economic activity took hold. This, in turn, reduced domestic tax revenues at a time when governments were facing increased financial pressures to strengthen and sustain welfare states. METHODS: We developed a simulation model, the Covid-19 Taxination Simulator, to estimate potential economic gains and tax revenues attributable to vaccine rollouts. We apply the model to 12 European Union countries which had low vaccination rates at the beginning of 2022. RESULTS: The highest growth in aggregate personal consumption expenditure attributable to Covid-19 vaccines administered as of January 2022 is in Greece (10.8%), Slovenia (8.6%) and Czechia (8.6%), while the lowest is in Bulgaria (2.2%) and Slovakia (2.1%). If countries had vaccinated 85% of their adult population, the largest gains in consumption tax revenues would be expected in Romania (830 million Euros) and Poland (738 million Euros). Consumption tax revenues generated by meeting the 85% of the adult population target would, on their own, be large enough to fully cover the costs of expanding the vaccine rollout itself in Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary and Greece. CONCLUSION: Covid-19 vaccination rollouts not only save lives and relieve pressures on health systems, they also support economic growth and generate additional tax revenues. These revenues can partially offset the costs of vaccines programmes themselves.

Can healthy ageing moderate the effects of population ageing on economic growth and health spending trends in Mongolia? A modelling study.

BACKGROUND:  Population ageing will accelerate rapidly in Mongolia in the coming decades. We explore whether this is likely to have deleterious effects on economic growth and health spending trends and whether any adverse consequences might be moderated by ensuring better health among the older population. METHODS:  Fixed-effects models are used to estimate the relationship between the size of the older working-age population (55-69 years) and economic growth from 2020 to 2100 and to simulate how growth is modified by better health among the older working-age population, as measured by a 5% improvement in years lived with disability. We next use 2017 data on per capita health spending by age from the National Health Insurance Fund to project how population ageing will influence public health spending from 2020 to 2060 and how this relationship may change if the older population (≥ 60 years) ages in better or worse health than currently. RESULTS:  The projected increase in the share of the population aged 55-69 years is associated with a 4.1% slowdown in per-person gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 2020 and 2050 and a 5.2% slowdown from 2020 to 2100. However, a 5% reduction in disability rates among the older population offsets these effects and adds around 0.2% to annual per-person GDP growth in 2020, rising to nearly 0.4% per year by 2080. Baseline projections indicate that population ageing will increase public health spending as a share of GDP by 1.35 percentage points from 2020 to 2060; this will occur slowly, adding approximately 0.03 percentage points to the share of GDP annually. Poorer health among the older population (aged ≥ 60 years) would see population ageing add an additional 0.17 percentage points above baseline estimates, but healthy ageing would lower baseline projections by 0.18 percentage points, corresponding to potential savings of just over US$ 46 million per year by 2060. CONCLUSIONS:  Good health at older ages could moderate the potentially negative effects of population ageing on economic growth and health spending trends in Mongolia. Continued investment in the health of older people will improve quality of life, while also enhancing the sustainability of public budgets.

Catastrophic health spending in Europe: equity and policy implications of different calculation methods.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the equity and policy implications of different methods to calculate catastrophic health spending. METHODS: We used routinely collected data from recent household budget surveys in 14 European countries. We calculated the incidence of catastrophic health spending and its distribution across consumption quintiles using four methods. We compared the budget share method, which is used to monitor universal health coverage (UHC) in the sustainable development goals (SDGs), with three other well-established methods: actual food spending; partial normative food spending; and normative spending on food, housing and utilities. FINDINGS: Country estimates of the incidence of catastrophic health spending were generally similar using the normative spending on food, housing and utilities method and the budget share method at the 10% threshold of a household's ability to pay. The former method found that catastrophic spending was concentrated in the poorest quintile in all countries, whereas with the budget share method catastrophic spending was largely experienced by richer households. This is because the threshold for catastrophic health spending in the budget share method is the same for all households, while the other methods generated effective thresholds that varied across households. The normative spending on food, housing and utilities method was the only one that produced an effective threshold that rose smoothly with total household expenditure. CONCLUSION: The budget share method used in the SDGs overestimates financial hardship among rich households and underestimates hardship among poor households. This raises concerns about the ability of the SDG process to generate appropriate guidance for policy on UHC.

Health effects of unemployment benefit program generosity.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the impact of unemployment benefit programs on the health of the unemployed. METHODS: We linked US state law data on maximum allowable unemployment benefit levels between 1985 and 2008 to individual self-rated health for heads of households in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and implemented state and year fixed-effect models. RESULTS: Unemployment was associated with increased risk of reporting poor health among men in both linear probability (b=0.0794; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.0623, 0.0965) and logistic models (odds ratio=2.777; 95% CI=2.294, 3.362), but this effect is lower when the generosity of state unemployment benefits is high (b for interaction between unemployment and benefits=-0.124; 95% CI=-0.197, -0.0523). A 63% increase in benefits completely offsets the impact of unemployment on self-reported health. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that unemployment benefits may significantly alleviate the adverse health effects of unemployment among men.

Do generous unemployment benefit programs reduce suicide rates? A state fixed-effect analysis covering 1968-2008.

The recent economic recession has led to increases in suicide, but whether US state unemployment insurance programs ameliorate this association has not been examined. Exploiting US state variations in the generosity of benefit programs between 1968 and 2008, we tested the hypothesis that more generous unemployment benefit programs reduce the impact of economic downturns on suicide. Using state linear fixed-effect models, we found a negative additive interaction between unemployment rates and benefits among the US working-age (20-64 years) population (ß = -0.57, 95% confidence interval: -0.86, -0.27; P < 0.001). The finding of a negative additive interaction was robust across multiple model specifications. Our results suggest that the impact of unemployment rates on suicide is offset by the presence of generous state unemployment benefit programs, though estimated effects are small in magnitude.

Ageing in the European Union.

The ageing of European populations presents health, long-term care, and welfare systems with new challenges. Although reports of ageing as a fundamental threat to the welfare state seem exaggerated, societies have to embrace various policy options to improve the robustness of health, long-term care, and welfare systems in Europe and to help people to stay healthy and active in old age. These policy options include prevention and health promotion, better self-care, increased coordination of care, improved management of hospital admissions and discharges, improved systems of long-term care, and new work and pension arrangements. Ageing of the health workforce is another challenge, and policies will need to be pursued that meet the particular needs of older workers (ie, those aged 50 years or older) while recruiting young practitioners.

Financial crisis, austerity, and health in Europe.

The financial crisis in Europe has posed major threats and opportunities to health. We trace the origins of the economic crisis in Europe and the responses of governments, examine the effect on health systems, and review the effects of previous economic downturns on health to predict the likely consequences for the present. We then compare our predictions with available evidence for the effects of the crisis on health. Whereas immediate rises in suicides and falls in road traffic deaths were anticipated, other consequences, such as HIV outbreaks, were not, and are better understood as products of state retrenchment. Greece, Spain, and Portugal adopted strict fiscal austerity; their economies continue to recede and strain on their health-care systems is growing. Suicides and outbreaks of infectious diseases are becoming more common in these countries, and budget cuts have restricted access to health care. By contrast, Iceland rejected austerity through a popular vote, and the financial crisis seems to have had few or no discernible effects on health. Although there are many potentially confounding differences between countries, our analysis suggests that, although recessions pose risks to health, the interaction of fiscal austerity with economic shocks and weak social protection is what ultimately seems to escalate health and social crises in Europe. Policy decisions about how to respond to economic crises have pronounced and unintended effects on public health, yet public health voices have remained largely silent during the economic crisis.

The value of healthy ageing: Estimating the economic value of health using time use data.

INTRODUCTION: Economic arguments in favour of investing in health and health care are important for policy making, yet demonstrating the potential economic gains associated with health at older ages can be empirically challenging due to older peoples' limited attachment to the labour market. METHODS: We develop a novel method to quantify the economic value of health through time use data. Using data on people aged 65 years-old and older from the United Kingdom Time Use Survey (UKTUS) 2014-15, we apply survey-weighted generalized linear models to predict the time spent in non-market productive activities conditional on characteristics including age and self-perceived health. We weight these estimates of predicted minutes spent in each activity using household satellite accounts to quantify the monetary value of time spent engaging in non-market productive activities according to health status and simulate the monetary impact of health gains at older ages. RESULTS: Both age and self-perceived health status were associated with minutes spent in many non-market productive activities. Summing the monetized predictions of minutes spent across all types of activities indicates that being in "very good" instead of "very bad" self-perceived health is associated with an additional production of 439£, 629£ and 598£ (in real 2015 GBP) per month for an average individual aged 65 to 74 years-old, 75 to 84 years-old and 85 years-old and older, respectively. Using our simulation model, if 10% of older people in "very bad" health in the United Kingdom were to transition to "very good" health it could lead to an increase of up to 278£ million through the production of non-market activities. CONCLUSIONS: Health at older ages creates considerable economic value which is not observed using standard national accounting measures. Our method to quantify the monetary value of health can be adapted to other settings to make the economic case for investing in healthy ageing.

Cross-country comparisons in health price growth over time.

OBJECTIVE: To examine how the United States compares in terms of health price growth relative to four other countries - Australia, Canada, France, and the Netherlands. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING: Secondary data on health expenditure were extracted from international and national agencies spanning the years 2000-2020. STUDY DESIGN: International price indices specific to health were constructed using available international expenditure data and compared to existing health-specific national and general international price indices. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Health expenditure data were extracted from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) database. We obtained a time series of health price indices from the national agencies in each of the study countries. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We find meaningful variation across countries in the rate at which health prices grow relative to general prices. The United States had the highest cumulative health price growth compared to general price growth over the years 2000-2020 at 14%, followed by Canada and the Netherlands. Unlike the other study countries, health prices in France grew consistently in line with general prices. Price growth for health care paid for by public funds and households grew at different rates across countries, where price growth was higher for public payers. US households faced the greatest mean annual price growth. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of price index has major implications for comparative analysis. Despite their widespread use internationally, general price indices likely underestimate the contribution of price growth to overall health expenditure growth. We find that in addition to its reputation for having high health price levels compared to other high-income countries, the United States also faces health price growth for goods and services paid for by government and households in excess of general price growth. Furthermore, US households are exposed to greater health price growth than households in comparator countries.

We Need a Combination of Approaches to Evaluate Health System Resilience Comment on "Re-evaluating Our Knowledge of Health System Resilience During COVID-19: Lessons From the First Two Years of the Pandemic".

Health system resilience has become a desirable health system attribute in the current permacrisis environment. The article by Saulnier and colleagues reviews the literature on health system resilience and refines the concept, pinpointing dimensions of resilience governance that have not reached consensus, or that are missing from the literature. In this commentary we complement the findings by discussing different conceptual frameworks for understanding resilience and introducing resilience testing, a method to assess health system resilience using a hypothetical shock scenario. Resilience testing is a mixed-methods approach that combines a review of existing data with a structured workshop, where health system experts collaboratively assess the resilience of their health system. The new method is proposed as a tool for policy-making, as the results can identify attributes of the current health system that may hinder or boost a resilient response to the next crisis.

Assessing the equity and coverage policy sensitivity of financial protection indicators in Europe.

Progress towards universal health coverage is monitored by the incidence of catastrophic spending. Two catastrophic spending indicators are commonly used in Europe: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicator 3.8.2 and the WHO Regional Office for Europe (WHO/Europe) indicator. The use of different indicators can cause confusion, especially if they produce contradictory results and policy implications. We use harmonised household budget survey data from 27 European Union countries covering 505,217 households and estimate the risk of catastrophic spending, conditional on household characteristics and the design of medicines co-payments. We calculate the predicted probability of catastrophic spending for particular households, which we call LISAs, under combinations of medicines co-payment policies and compare predictions across the two indicators. Using the WHO/Europe indicator, any combination of two or more protective policies (i.e. low fixed co-payments instead of percentage co-payments, exemptions for low-income households and income-related caps on co-payments) is associated with a statistically significant lower risk of catastrophic spending. Using the SDG indicator, confidence intervals for every combination of protective policies overlap with those for no protective policies. Although out-of-pocket medicines spending is a strong predictor of catastrophic spending using both indicators, the WHO/Europe indicator is more sensitive to medicines co-payment policies than the SDG indicator, making it a better indicator to monitor health system equity and progress towards UHC in Europe.

Monitoring progress towards universal health coverage in Europe: a descriptive analysis of financial protection in 40 countries.

Background: Ensuring that access to health care is affordable for everyone-financial protection-is central to universal health coverage (UHC). Financial protection is commonly measured using indicators of financial barriers to access (unmet need for health care) and financial hardship caused by out-of-pocket payments for health care (impoverishing and catastrophic health spending). We aim to assess financial hardship and unmet need in Europe and identify the coverage policy choices that undermine financial protection. Methods: We carry out a cross-sectional study of financial hardship in 40 countries in Europe in 2019 (the latest available year of data before COVID-19) using microdata from national household budget surveys. We define impoverishing health spending as out-of-pocket payments that push households below or further below a relative poverty line and catastrophic health spending as out-of-pocket payments that exceed 40% of a household's capacity to pay for health care. We link these results to survey data on unmet need for health care, dental care, and prescribed medicines and information on two aspects of coverage policy at country level: the main basis for entitlement to publicly financed health care and user charges for covered services. Findings: Out-of-pocket payments for health care lead to financial hardship and unmet need in every country in the study, particularly for people with low incomes. Impoverishing health spending ranges from under 1% of households (in six countries) to 12%, with a median of 3%. Catastrophic health spending ranges from under 1% of households (in two countries) to 20%, with a median of 6%. Catastrophic health spending is consistently concentrated in the poorest fifth of the population and is largely driven by out-of-pocket payments for outpatient medicines, medical products, and dental care-all forms of treatment that should be an essential part of primary care. The median incidence of catastrophic health spending is three times lower in countries that cover over 99% of the population than in countries that cover less than 99%. In 16 out of the 17 countries that cover less than 99% of the population, the basis for entitlement is payment of contributions to a social health insurance (SHI) scheme. Countries that give greater protection from user charges to people with low incomes have lower levels of catastrophic health spending. Interpretation: It is challenging to identify with certainty the coverage policy choices that undermine financial protection due to the complexity of the policies involved and the difficulty of disentangling the effects of different choices. The conclusions we draw are therefore tentative, though plausible. Countries are more likely to move towards UHC if they reduce out-of-pocket payments in a progressive way, decreasing them for people with low incomes first. Coverage policy choices that seem likely to achieve this include de-linking entitlement from payment of SHI contributions; expanding the coverage of outpatient medicines, medical products, and dental care; limiting user charges; and strengthening protection against user charges, particularly for people with low incomes. Funding: The European Union (DG SANTE and DG NEAR) and the Government of the Autonomous Community of Catalonia, Spain.

Global review of COVID-19 mitigation strategies and their impact on cancer service disruptions.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, countries adopted mitigation strategies to reduce disruptions to cancer services. We reviewed their implementation across health system functions and their impact on cancer diagnosis and care during the pandemic. A systematic search was performed using terms related to cancer and COVID-19. Included studies reported on individuals with cancer or cancer care services, focusing on strategies/programs aimed to reduce delays and disruptions. Extracted data were grouped into four functions (governance, financing, service delivery, and resource generation) and sub-functions of the health system performance assessment framework. We included 30 studies from 16 countries involving 192,233 patients with cancer. Multiple mitigation approaches were implemented, predominantly affecting sub-functions of service delivery to control COVID-19 infection via the suspension of non-urgent cancer care, modified treatment guidelines, and increased telemedicine use in routine cancer care delivery. Resource generation was mainly ensured through adequate workforce supply. However, less emphasis on monitoring or assessing the effectiveness and financing of these strategies was observed. Seventeen studies suggested improved service uptake after mitigation implementation, yet the resulting impact on cancer diagnosis and care has not been established. This review emphasizes the importance of developing effective mitigation strategies across all health system (sub)functions to minimize cancer care service disruptions during crises. Deficiencies were observed in health service delivery (to ensure equity), governance (to monitor and evaluate the implementation of mitigation strategies), and financing. In the wake of future emergencies, implementation research studies that include pre-prepared protocols will be essential to assess mitigation impact across cancer care services.

Should we adjust health expenditure for age structure on health systems efficiency? A worldwide analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Healthcare expenditure, a common input used in health systems efficiency analyses is affected by population age structure. However, while age structure is usually considered to adjust health system outputs, health expenditure and other inputs are seldom adjusted. We propose methods for adjusting Health Expenditure per Capita (HEpC) for population age structure on health system efficiency analyses and assess the goodness-of-fit, correlation, reliability and disagreement of different approaches. METHODS: We performed a worldwide (188 countries) cross-sectional study of efficiency in 2015, using a stochastic frontier analysis. As single outputs, healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth and at 65 years-old were considered in different models. We developed five models using as inputs: (1) HEpC (unadjusted); (2) age-adjusted HEpC; (3) HEpC and the proportion of 0-14, 15-64 and 65 + years-old; (4) HEpC and 5-year age-groups; and (5) HEpC ageing index. Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, Spearman's rank correlation, intraclass correlation coefficient and information-based measure of disagreement were computed. RESULTS: Models 1 and 2 showed the highest correlation (0.981 and 0.986 for HALE at birth and HALE at 65 years-old, respectively) and reliability (0.986 and 0.988) and the lowest disagreement (0.011 and 0.014). Model 2, with age-adjusted HEpC, presented the lowest information criteria values. CONCLUSIONS: Despite different models showing good correlation and reliability and low disagreement, there was important variability when age structure is considered that cannot be disregarded. The age-adjusted HE model provided the best goodness-of-fit and was the closest option to the current standard.

Population ageing and health financing: A method for forecasting two sides of the same coin.

There is a perception that population ageing will have deleterious effects on future health financing sustainability. We propose a new method-the Population Ageing financial Sustainability gap for Health systems (or alternatively, the PASH)-to explore how changes in the population age mix will affect health expenditures and revenues. Using a set of six anonymized country scenarios that are based on data from countries in Europe and the Western Pacific representing a diverse range of health financing systems, we forecast the size of the ageing-attributable gap between health revenues and expenditures from 2020 to 2100 under current health financing arrangements. In the country with the largest financing gap in 2100 (country S6) the majority (87.1%) is caused by growth in health expenditures. However in countries that are heavily reliant on labour-market related social contributions to finance health care, a sizeable share of the financing gap is due to reductions in health revenues. We argue that analyses giving equal attention to both health expenditures and revenues steers decision makers towards a more balanced set of policy options to address the challenges of population ageing, ranging from targeting expenditures and utilization of services to diversifying revenue.

How resilient is health financing policy in Europe to economic shocks? Evidence from the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 global financial crisis.

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an economic shock just ten years after the shock of the 2008 global financial crisis. Economic shocks are a challenge for health systems because they reduce government revenue at the same time as they increase the need for publicly financed health care. This article explores the resilience of health financing policy to economic shocks by reviewing policy responses to the financial crisis and COVID-19 in Europe. It finds that some health systems were weakened by responses to the 2008 crisis. Responses to the pandemic show evidence of lessons learnt from the earlier crisis but also reveal weaknesses in health financing policy that limit national preparedness to face economic shocks, particularly in countries with social health insurance schemes. These weaknesses highlight where permanent changes are needed to strengthen resilience in future: countries will have to find ways to reduce cyclicality in coverage policy and revenue-raising; increase the priority given to health in allocating public spending; and ensure that resources are used to meet equity and efficiency goals. Although many health systems are likely to face budgetary pressure in the years ahead, the experience of the 2008 crisis shows that austerity is not an option because it undermines resilience and progress towards universal health coverage.

What have European countries done to prevent the spread of COVID-19? Lessons from the COVID-19 Health system response monitor.

Although some European countries imposed measures that successfully slowed the transmission of Covid-19 during the first year of the pandemic, others struggled, either because they acted slowly or implemented measures ineffectively. In this paper we consider the European experience with public health measures designed to prevent transmission of COVID-19. Based on literature and country responses described in the COVID-19 Health System Response Monitor from March 2020 to December 2020, we consider some critical aspects of public health policy responses. These include the importance of public health capacity that can scale up surveillance and outbreak control, including effective testing and contract tracing, of clear messaging based on an understanding of human behaviour, policies that address the undesirable consequences of necessary measures, such as support for those isolating or unable to earn, and the ability to implement at pace and scale a major vaccine rollout. We conclude that for countries to be successful at preventing COVID-19 transmission, there is a need for a clear strategy with explicit goals and a whole systems approach to implementation.