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1.
BMC Psychiatry ; 24(1): 107, 2024 Feb 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38326791

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) is highly prevalent in adolescents. In survey and interview studies assessing NSSI, methods of assessment have been shown to influence prevalence estimates. However, knowledge of which groups of adolescents that are identified with different measurement methods is lacking, and the characteristics of identified groups are yet to be investigated. Further, only a handful of studies have been carried out using exploratory methods to identify subgroups among adolescents with NSSI. METHODS: The performance of two prevalence measures (single-item vs. behavioral checklist) in the same cross-sectional community sample (n = 266, age M = 14.21, 58.3% female) of adolescents was compared regarding prevalence estimates and also characterization of the identified groups with lifetime NSSI prevalence. A cluster analysis was carried out in the same sample. Identified clusters were compared to the two groups defined using the prevalence measures. RESULTS: A total of 118 (44.4%) participants acknowledged having engaged in NSSI at least once. Of these, a group of 55 (20.7%) adolescents confirmed NSSI on a single item and 63 (23.7%) adolescents confirmed NSSI only on a behavioral checklist, while denying NSSI on the single item. Groups differed significantly, with the single-item group being more severely affected and having higher mean scores on difficulties in emotion regulation, self-criticism, number of methods, higher frequency of NSSI, higher rates of suicidal ideation and suicidal behavior and lower mean score on health-related quality of life. All cases with higher severity were not identified by the single-item question. Cluster analysis identified three clusters, two of which fit well with the groups identified by single-item and behavioral checklist measures. CONCLUSIONS: When investigating NSSI prevalence in adolescents, findings are influenced by the researchers' choice of measures. The present study provides some directions toward what kind of influence to expect given the type of measure used, both with regards to the size of the identified group and its composition. Implications for future research as well as clinical and preventive work are discussed.


Assuntos
Qualidade de Vida , Comportamento Autodestrutivo , Humanos , Adolescente , Feminino , Masculino , Estudos Transversais , Comportamento Autodestrutivo/epidemiologia , Comportamento Autodestrutivo/psicologia , Ideação Suicida , Inquéritos e Questionários
2.
Br J Sports Med ; 57(6): 364-370, 2023 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36564148

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether universal prevention via a digital health platform can reduce the injury incidence in athletics athletes aged 12-15 years and if club size had an influence on the effect of the intervention. METHODS: This was a cluster randomised trial where young athletics athletes were randomised through their club following stratification by club size into intervention (11 clubs; 56 athletes) and control (10 clubs; 79 athletes) groups. The primary endpoint was time from baseline to the first self-reported injury. Intervention group parents and coaches were given access to a website with health information adapted to adolescent athletes and were encouraged to log in and explore its content during 16 weeks. The control group continued training as normal. Training exposure and injury data were self-reported by youths/parents every second week, that is, eight times. The primary endpoint data were analysed using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to analyse the second study aim with intervention status and club size included in the explanatory models. RESULTS: The proportion of completed training reports was 85% (n=382) in the intervention group and 86% (n=545) in the control group. The injury incidence was significantly lower (HR=0.62; χ2=3.865; p=0.049) in the intervention group. The median time to first injury was 16 weeks in the intervention group and 8 weeks in the control group. An interaction effect between the intervention and stratification factor was observed with a difference in injury risk between athletes in the large clubs in the intervention group versus their peers in the control group (HR 0.491 (95% CI 0.242 to 0.998); p=0.049). CONCLUSIONS: A protective effect against injury through universal access to health information adapted for adolescent athletes was observed in youth athletics athletes. The efficacy of the intervention was stronger in large clubs. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03459313.


Assuntos
Traumatismos em Atletas , Serviços de Saúde , Atletismo , Adolescente , Humanos , Atletas/estatística & dados numéricos , Traumatismos em Atletas/epidemiologia , Traumatismos em Atletas/prevenção & controle , Incidência , Organizações/estatística & dados numéricos , Atletismo/lesões , Atletismo/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise por Conglomerados , Criança , Internet
3.
Br J Sports Med ; 57(13): 849-854, 2023 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37001981

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Although injury burden prompts elite athletics (track and field) athletes to engage in injury management, little is known about their health literacy. We investigated musculoskeletal (MS) health literacy in world-leading athletics athletes and associations with prechampionship injury acknowledgement by reduction of training load in different socioeconomic environments. METHODS: Adult and youth athletics athletes (n=1785) preparing for World Championships were invited to complete the Literacy in Musculoskeletal Problems instrument and report acknowledgement of injury by reduction in training load during prechampionship tapering. Their socioeconomic standing was estimated through the Human Development Index of their home country. Demographic differences were examined using χ2 tests and determinants of injury acknowledgement assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: Complete data were obtained from 780 athletes (43.7%) with 26% demonstrating sufficient MS health literacy, higher in adult (41%) than youth (13%) athletes (p<0.001). Adult athletes at the uppermost socioeconomic level showed higher MS health literacy than athletes at lower socioeconomic levels (p<0.001). At the uppermost socioeconomic level, adult athletes with sufficient MS health literacy had increased likelihood of acknowledging an injury by reduction in training load compared with peers demonstrating insufficient MS health literacy (OR=2.45; 95% CI 1.33-4.53). Athletes at middle socioeconomic levels with sufficient MS health literacy had decreased likelihood for acknowledging an injury during tapering (OR=0.29; 95% CI 0.11-0.78). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of sufficient MS health literacy in world-leading athletics athletes is low. Associations between MS health literacy and injury acknowledgement in these athletes vary with the resourcefulness of the socioeconomic environment, implying that health literacy and resources for medical and performance support should be ascertained concurrently.


Assuntos
Traumatismos em Atletas , Letramento em Saúde , Atletismo , Adulto , Adolescente , Humanos , Traumatismos em Atletas/epidemiologia , Atletas , Fatores Socioeconômicos
4.
Int J Mol Sci ; 24(12)2023 Jun 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37373545

RESUMO

The detection of antinuclear antibodies is central to the diagnosis and prognosis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS) and mixed connective tissue disease (MCTD). Anti-U1-RNP and anti-RNP70 antibodies were assayed in the sera of patients with SLE (n = 114), pSS (n = 54) and MCTD (n = 12). In the SLE group, 34/114 (30%) were anti-U1-RNP positive, and 21/114 (18%) were both anti-RNP70 positive and anti-U1-RNP positive. In the MCTD group, 10/12 (83%) were anti-U1-RNP positive, and 9/12 (75%) were anti-RNP70 positive. Only one individual with pSS was antibody positive (for both anti-U1-RNP and anti-RNP70). All anti-RNP70-positive samples were also anti-U1-RNP positive. Anti-U1-RNP-positive subjects with SLE were younger (p < 0.0001); showed lower concentrations of complement protein 3 (p = 0.03); had lower eosinophil (p = 0.0005), lymphocyte (p = 0.006) and monocyte (p = 0.03) counts; and had accrued less organ damage (p = 0.006) than the anti-U1-RNP-negative SLE patients. However, we observed no significant clinical or laboratory parameter differences between the anti-U1-RNP-positive individuals with/without anti-RNP70 in the SLE group. In conclusion, anti-RNP70 antibodies are not exclusive to MCTD but are rarely detected in pSS and healthy individuals. In SLE, anti-U1-RNP antibodies are associated with a clinical phenotype that resembles MCTD, with hematologic involvement and less damage accrual. Based on our results, the clinical value of subtyping anti-RNP70 in anti-U1-RNP-positive sera appears to be of limited value.


Assuntos
Anticorpos Antinucleares , Lúpus Eritematoso Sistêmico , Lúpus Eritematoso Sistêmico/sangue , Lúpus Eritematoso Sistêmico/diagnóstico , Humanos , Anticorpos Antinucleares/sangue , Ribonucleoproteína Nuclear Pequena U1 , Doença Mista do Tecido Conjuntivo/sangue , Doença Mista do Tecido Conjuntivo/diagnóstico , Técnicas Imunoenzimáticas , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estudos Transversais
5.
J Child Lang ; : 1-18, 2023 Oct 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37869896

RESUMO

Mental State Talk (MST) is utterances describing invisible mental aspects. The first aim of this study was to investigate the characteristics of Parental MST and Child MST and their concurrent association in a Swedish population, and the second aim was to relate these MST measures to the children's general language abilities. Seventy-seven dyads of parents and their 25-month-old toddlers participated. MST was assessed by videotaping the dyads during free-play sessions in a laboratory and general language abilities were based on parental reports. Forty-nine toddlers did not produce MST, while all parents used MST. Child MST was positively associated with vocabulary and grammar. Parental MST was not associated with Child MST nor the children's general language abilities. In exploratory analyses, Parental MST referred to another than the child was positively correlated with vocabulary and grammar. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and continue studying MST in different linguistic contexts.

6.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 28(3): 564-571, 2022 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35201737

RESUMO

We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance until the incidence decreased to <1.5/100,000 population, whereas the corresponding performance for fever by adult was unsatisfactory. Our results support local nowcasting of hospitalizations on the basis of symptom data recorded in routine healthcare during the initial stage of a pandemic.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Adulto , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Atenção à Saúde , Previsões , Hospitalização , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Suécia/epidemiologia
7.
BMC Psychiatry ; 22(1): 468, 2022 07 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35836194

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The importance of resilience, and interest in it, has increased markedly in recent years, based on the need to understand why some children and young people have a resilience to stress that others lack. At the same time, there has been a lack of instruments to measure resilience. The aim of this study was to translate the Adolescent Resilience Questionnaire (ARQ) into Swedish and investigate the psychometrics of this Swedish version. METHODS: A normative sample of 616 students aged 15-17 was recruited through the school system in five different communities. Students filled out a digitalised composite form consisting of ARQ and three other standardised questionnaires, the Sense of Coherence Scale-13 (Soc-13), the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES) and the Relationship Questionnaire (RQ). RESULTS: The ARQ, with five domains and twelve subscales, showed good alpha coefficients α = .95 for the total scale and subscales ranging between α = .70 to .91, except for the subscales Emotional insight (α = 0.69) and Empathy/Tolerance (α = .61). The convergent validity, which was tested for the first time in this study, was good, especially with the Internal Domain for both SOC-13 and RSES. The confirmatory factor analysis showed a satisfactory construct validity. Finally, some gender differences were seen, with boys scoring higher on the total ARQ scale. CONCLUSION: The study shows that the Swedish translation of ARQ has satisfactory psychometric properties. The ARQ could therefore be used as a tool for adolescents when evaluating the importance of resilience.


Assuntos
Tradução , Adolescente , Criança , Análise Fatorial , Humanos , Masculino , Psicometria , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Inquéritos e Questionários , Suécia
9.
Br J Sports Med ; 55(4): 198-205, 2021 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32102912

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between suicidal ideation and sexual and physical abuse among active and recently retired elite athletics (track and field) athletes. METHODS: The study population consisted of all athletes (n=402) selected for a Swedish Athletics team between 2011 and 2017. Data on suicidal ideation, suicidal events (estimated through the 1 year non-sports injury prevalence), lifetime abuse experiences, sociodemographics, sense of coherence and coping strategies were collected using a cross-sectional survey. The data were analysed using binary logistic regression with suicidal ideation and non-sports injury as outcomes. RESULTS: 192 athletes (47.8%) returned data. The prevalence of suicidal ideation was 15.6% (men 17.4%; women 14.2%) and the non-sports injury prevalence was 8.0% (men 11.6%; women 5.7%). Among women, suicidal ideation was associated with having been sexually abused (OR 5.94, 95% CI 1.42 to 24.90; p=0.015) and lower sense of coherence (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.96; p=0.001) (Nagelkerke R2=0.33). Among men, suicidal ideation was only associated with use of behavioural disengagement for coping (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.95; p=0.001) (R2 =0.25). Among women, non-sports injury prevalence was associated with having been sexually abused (OR 8.61, 95% CI 1.34 to 55.1; p=0.023) and participating in an endurance event (OR 7.37, 95% CI 1.11 to 48.9; p=0.039 (R2 =0.23), while among men, having immigrant parents (OR 5.67, 95% CI 1.31 to 24.5; p=0.020) (R2 =0.11) was associated with injury outside sports. CONCLUSIONS: About one out of six international athletics athletes reported having experienced suicidal ideation. World Athletics and National Olympic Committees need to include suicide prevention in their athlete protection programmes.


Assuntos
Atletas/psicologia , Abuso Físico/psicologia , Delitos Sexuais/psicologia , Ideação Suicida , Atletismo/psicologia , Adaptação Psicológica , Adulto , Intervalos de Confiança , Vítimas de Crime/psicologia , Vítimas de Crime/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Inquéritos Epidemiológicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Razão de Chances , Abuso Físico/estatística & dados numéricos , Prevalência , Senso de Coerência , Distribuição por Sexo , Delitos Sexuais/estatística & dados numéricos , Suicídio/psicologia , Suécia , Ferimentos e Lesões/epidemiologia
10.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 26(11): 2669-2677, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33079036

RESUMO

The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008-February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011-12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.


Assuntos
Epidemias , Influenza Humana , Previsões , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Estudos Prospectivos , Estações do Ano , Suécia/epidemiologia
11.
Scand J Med Sci Sports ; 30(8): 1457-1470, 2020 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32302455

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Sports-related injuries and illnesses in Paralympic sport (SRIIPS) are a concern, but knowledge about the etiology and risk factors is limited. The aim of this study was to describe the annual incidence, type, and severity of injuries and illnesses among Swedish Paralympic athletes and to assess risk factors. METHODS: Swedish Paralympic athletes (n = 107) self-reported SRIIPS every week during 52 weeks using an eHealth application. Incidence proportions (IP) and incidence rates (IR) were used as measures of disease burden. Time-to-event methods (Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression) were used to identify risk factors. RESULTS: The annual IP for injury was 68% and for illness 77%. The injury IR was 6.9/1000 hours and the illness IR 9.3/1000 hours. The median time to injury was 19 weeks (95% CI: 10.5-27.4) and to illness 9 weeks (95% CI: 1.4-16.6). Most injuries occurred during training, and 34% were classified as severe (≥21 days of time loss). An increased injury risk was observed among athletes in team sports (HR 1.88; 95% CI: 1.19-2.99), athletes with a previous severe injury (HR 2.37; 95% CI: 1.47-3.83), and male athletes (HR 1.76; 95% CI: 1.06-2.93). The most common illness type was infection (84%). Athletes in team sports (HR 1.64; 95% CI: 1.05-2.54) and males with a previous illness (HR = 2.13; 95% CI: 1.04-4.36) had a higher illness risk. CONCLUSION: Paralympic athletes report a high incidence of injuries and illnesses over time. This emphasizes the need to develop preventive strategies of SRIIPS and optimize medical services for this heterogeneous athlete population.


Assuntos
Traumatismos em Atletas/epidemiologia , Paratletas/estatística & dados numéricos , Esportes para Pessoas com Deficiência/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Suécia/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
12.
Br J Sports Med ; 54(15): 941, 2020 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32371524

RESUMO

High quality sports injury research can facilitate sports injury prevention and treatment. There is scope to improve how our field applies best practice methods-methods matter (greatly!). The 1st METHODS MATTER Meeting, held in January 2019 in Copenhagen, Denmark, was the forum for an international group of researchers with expertise in research methods to discuss sports injury methods. We discussed important epidemiological and statistical topics within the field of sports injury research. With this opinion document, we provide the main take-home messages that emerged from the meeting.


Assuntos
Traumatismos em Atletas , Projetos de Pesquisa , Medicina Esportiva/métodos , Traumatismos em Atletas/epidemiologia , Traumatismos em Atletas/etiologia , Traumatismos em Atletas/prevenção & controle , Traumatismos em Atletas/terapia , Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Humanos , Comunicação Interdisciplinar , Projetos de Pesquisa/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores de Risco
13.
Br J Sports Med ; 53(22): 1412-1417, 2019 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30190298

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between lifetime sexual and physical abuse, and the likelihood of injury within and outside sport in athletes involved in competitive athletics. METHODS: A cross sectional study was performed among the top 10 Swedish athletics athletes using 1 year prevalence of sports and non-sports injuries as the primary outcome measure. Associations with sociodemographic characteristics, lifetime abuse history and training load were investigated. Data were analysed using simple and multiple logistic regression models. RESULTS: 11% of 197 participating athletes reported lifetime sexual abuse; there was a higher proportion of women (16.2%) than men (4.3%) (P=0.005). 18% reported lifetime physical abuse; there was a higher proportion of men (22.8%) than women (14.3%) (P=0.050). For women, lifetime sexual abuse was associated with an increased likelihood of a non-sports injury (OR 8.78, CI 2.76 to 27.93; P<0.001). Among men, increased likelihood of a non-sports injury was associated with more frequent use of alcoholic beverages (OR 6.47, CI 1.49 to 28.07; P=0.013), while commencing athletics training at >13 years of age was associated with a lower likelihood of non-sports injury (OR 0.09, CI 0.01 to 0.81; P=0.032). Lifetime physical abuse was associated with a higher likelihood of sports injury in women (OR 12.37, CI 1.52 to 100.37; P=0.019). Among men, athletes with each parents with ≤12 years formal education had a lower likelihood of sustaining an injury during their sports practice (OR 0.37, CI 0.14 to 0.96; P=0.040). CONCLUSIONS: Lifetime sexual and physical abuse were associated with an increased likelihood of injury among female athletes. Emotional factors should be included in the comprehension of injuries sustained by athletes.


Assuntos
Traumatismos em Atletas/epidemiologia , Abuso Físico , Delitos Sexuais , Atletismo/lesões , Ferimentos e Lesões/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Atletas/psicologia , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Prevalência , Inquéritos e Questionários , Suécia/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
14.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 24(10): 1868-1873, 2018 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30226160

RESUMO

The growing availability of big data in healthcare and public health opens possibilities for infectious disease control in local settings. We prospectively evaluated a method for integrated local detection and prediction (nowcasting) of influenza epidemics over 5 years, using the total population in Östergötland County, Sweden. We used routine health information system data on influenza-diagnosis cases and syndromic telenursing data for July 2009-June 2014 to evaluate epidemic detection, peak-timing prediction, and peak-intensity prediction. Detection performance was satisfactory throughout the period, except for the 2011-12 influenza A(H3N2) season, which followed a season with influenza B and pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus activity. Peak-timing prediction performance was satisfactory for the 4 influenza seasons but not the pandemic. Peak-intensity levels were correctly categorized for the pandemic and 2 of 4 influenza seasons. We recommend using versions of this method modified with regard to local use context for further evaluations using standard methods.


Assuntos
Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Epidemias , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1 , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H3N2 , Vírus da Influenza A/classificação , Vírus da Influenza A/genética , Influenza Humana/história , Influenza Humana/virologia , Vigilância da População , Suécia/epidemiologia
16.
Eur J Public Health ; 28(1): 94-99, 2018 02 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28510641

RESUMO

Background: Despite the popularity of the sport, few studies have investigated community-level football injury patterns. This study examines football injuries treated at emergency medical facilities using data from three Swedish counties. Methods: An open-cohort design was used based on residents aged 0-59 years in three Swedish counties (pop. 645 520). Data were collected from emergency medical facilities in the study counties between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2010. Injury frequencies and proportions for age groups stratified by sex were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) and displayed per diagnostic group and body location. Results: Each year, more than 1/200 person aged 0-59 years sustained at least one injury during football play that required emergency medical care. The highest injury incidence was observed among adolescent boys [2009 injuries per 100 000 population years (95% CI 1914-2108)] and adolescent girls [1413 injuries per 100 000 population years (95% CI 1333-1498)]. For female adolescents and adults, knee joint/ligament injury was the outstanding injury type (20% in ages 13-17 years and 34% in ages 18-29 years). For children aged 7-12 years, more than half of the treated injuries involved the upper extremity; fractures constituted about one-third of these injuries. Conclusions: One of every 200 residents aged 0-59 years in typical Swedish counties each year sustained a traumatic football injury that required treatment in emergency healthcare. Further research on community-level patterns of overuse syndromes sustained by participation in football play is warranted.


Assuntos
Traumatismos em Atletas/epidemiologia , Futebol/lesões , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Estudos de Coortes , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Suécia/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
18.
J Med Internet Res ; 19(6): e211, 2017 06 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28619700

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Influenza is a viral respiratory disease capable of causing epidemics that represent a threat to communities worldwide. The rapidly growing availability of electronic "big data" from diagnostic and prediagnostic sources in health care and public health settings permits advance of a new generation of methods for local detection and prediction of winter influenza seasons and influenza pandemics. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to present a method for integrated detection and prediction of influenza virus activity in local settings using electronically available surveillance data and to evaluate its performance by retrospective application on authentic data from a Swedish county. METHODS: An integrated detection and prediction method was formally defined based on a design rationale for influenza detection and prediction methods adapted for local surveillance. The novel method was retrospectively applied on data from the winter influenza season 2008-09 in a Swedish county (population 445,000). Outcome data represented individuals who met a clinical case definition for influenza (based on International Classification of Diseases version 10 [ICD-10] codes) from an electronic health data repository. Information from calls to a telenursing service in the county was used as syndromic data source. RESULTS: The novel integrated detection and prediction method is based on nonmechanistic statistical models and is designed for integration in local health information systems. The method is divided into separate modules for detection and prediction of local influenza virus activity. The function of the detection module is to alert for an upcoming period of increased load of influenza cases on local health care (using influenza-diagnosis data), whereas the function of the prediction module is to predict the timing of the activity peak (using syndromic data) and its intensity (using influenza-diagnosis data). For detection modeling, exponential regression was used based on the assumption that the beginning of a winter influenza season has an exponential growth of infected individuals. For prediction modeling, linear regression was applied on 7-day periods at the time in order to find the peak timing, whereas a derivate of a normal distribution density function was used to find the peak intensity. We found that the integrated detection and prediction method detected the 2008-09 winter influenza season on its starting day (optimal timeliness 0 days), whereas the predicted peak was estimated to occur 7 days ahead of the factual peak and the predicted peak intensity was estimated to be 26% lower than the factual intensity (6.3 compared with 8.5 influenza-diagnosis cases/100,000). CONCLUSIONS: Our detection and prediction method is one of the first integrated methods specifically designed for local application on influenza data electronically available for surveillance. The performance of the method in a retrospective study indicates that further prospective evaluations of the methods are justified.


Assuntos
Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Vigilância da População/métodos , Algoritmos , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos
19.
Br J Sports Med ; 51(4): 271-276, 2017 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27827793

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To determine preparticipation predictors of injury and illness at a major Athletics championship. METHODS: A cohort study design was used. Before the 2015 International Association of Athletics Federations World Championships in Athletics, all 207 registered national teams were approached about partaking in a study of preparticipation health; 50 teams accepted. The athletes (n=957) in the participating teams were invited to complete a preparticipation health questionnaire (PHQ). New injuries and illnesses that occurred at the championships were prospectively recorded. Logistic regression analyses were performed with simple and multiple models using any in-championship injury and in-championship illness as outcomes. RESULTS: The PHQ was completed by 307 (32.1%) of the invited athletes; 116 athletes (38.3%) reported an injury symptom during the month before the championships, while 40 athletes (13%) reported an illness symptom. 20 (6.5%) of the participating athletes sustained a health problem during the championships. Endurance athletes were almost 10-fold more likely to sustain an in-championship illness than speed/power athletes (OR, 9.88; 95% CI 1.20 to 81.31; p=0.033). Participants reporting a preparticipation gradual-onset injury symptom were three times more likely (OR, 3.09; 95% CI 1.08 to 8.79; p=0.035) and those reporting an illness symptom causing anxiety were fivefold more likely (OR, 5.56; 95% CI 1.34 to 23.15; p=0.018) to sustain an in-championship injury. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS: Analyses of preparticipation predictors of injury and illness at a major Athletics championship suggest that endurance athletes require particular clinical attention. Preparticipation symptoms causing anxiety are interesting predictors for in-championship health problems.


Assuntos
Traumatismos em Atletas/epidemiologia , Medicina Esportiva/estatística & dados numéricos , Esportes , Adulto , Atletas , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Fatores de Risco , Inquéritos e Questionários
20.
Br J Sports Med ; 51(4): 264-270, 2017 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27815238

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Assess exertional heat illness (EHI) history and preparedness in athletes competing in a World Athletics Championships under hot/humid conditions and identify the factors associated with preparedness strategies. METHODS: Of the 207 registered national teams invited to participate in the study, 50 (24%) accepted. The 957 athletes (49% of all 1965 registered) in these teams were invited to complete a precompetition questionnaire evaluating EHI history, heat stress prevention (heat acclimatisation, precooling and hydration) and recovery. Responses from 307 (32%) athletes were separated in field events, sprints, middle-distance and long-distance running, and decathlon/heptathlon for analysis. RESULTS: 48% of athletes had previously experienced EHI symptoms and 8.5% had been diagnosed with EHI. 15% heat acclimatised (∼20 days) before the championships. 52% had a precooling strategy, ice slurry ingestion (24%) being the most prevalent and women using it more frequently than men (p=0.005). 96% of athletes had a fluid consumption strategy, which differed between event categories (p<0.001). The most common volumes planned on being consumed were 0.5-1 L (27.2%) and ≥2 L (21.8%), water being the most frequent. 89% of athletes planned on using at least one recovery strategy. Female sex (p=0.024) and a previous EHI diagnosis increased the likelihood of using all 3 prevention strategies (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: At a World Championships with expected hot/humid conditions, less than one-fifth of athletes heat acclimatised, half had a precooling strategy and almost all a hydration plan. Women, and especially athletes with an EHI history, were more predisposed to use a complete heat stress prevention strategy. More information regarding heat acclimatisation should be provided to protect athlete health and optimise performance at major athletics competitions in the heat.


Assuntos
Aclimatação/fisiologia , Transtornos de Estresse por Calor/prevenção & controle , Temperatura Alta , Corrida/fisiologia , Atletas , Temperatura Corporal , Estudos de Coortes , Comportamento de Ingestão de Líquido , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Inquéritos e Questionários , Atletismo/fisiologia
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