The household and individual-level productive impacts of cash transfer programs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Silvio Daidone is a economist and Benjamin Davis is a Strategic Program Leader, both with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy. Sudhanshu Handa is a professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul Winters is the Associate Vice-President of the Strategy and Knowledge Department, International Fund for Agricultural Development, Rome, Italy. The research presented in this article has been carried out under the auspices of the "From Protection to Production" (PtoP) project, a collaborative effort of the United Nations Children's Fund, the United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The project has received funding from the DFID Research and Evidence Division, the European Union through the "Improved Global Governance for Hunger Reduction Programme", and the FAO Regular Fund. The authors would like to thank the following: two anonymous reviewers and the journal editor, who have provided excellent comments and significantly contributed to the improvement of the article; Alejandro Grinspun, Fabio Veras Soares, and Marco Knowles for technical review of previous drafts; Ervin Prifti and Noemi Pace for their useful suggestions and comments. The authors are also grateful to participants at the following conferences and workshops: 2017 APPAM International Conference, Brussels; 2016 Transfer Project workshop, Addis Ababa; 2016 IFAD-3IE Designing and implementing high-quality, policy-relevant impact evaluations, Rome; 2015 SASPEN Conference on Social Protection, Johannesburg; 2015 Global Food Security Conference, Ithaca; 2014 IPEA International Seminar "Social protection, entrepreneurship and labor market activation - Evidence for better policies", Brasilia; 2014 University of Florence, Department of Economics & Management Seminars, Florence; 2014 Africa Community of Practice (CoP) on Conditional Cash Transfers and Cash Transfers; 2014 African Union Expert Consultation on Children and Social Protection Systems, Cape Town; 2014 IDS Graduation and Social Protection Conference, Kigali. The authors would also like to remember Josh Dewbre, a founding member of the PtoP team, who passed away in April 2015, who had participated in the fieldwork and in the analysis of several programs included in this study. All mistakes and omissions are those of the authors.

One plus one can be greater than two: Evaluating synergies of development programmes in Malawi.

This paper investigates the interplay between the Social Cash Transfer Programme (SCTP) and the Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP) in Malawi. We take advantage of data collected from a seventeen-month evaluation of a sample of households eligible to receive SCTP, which also provided information about inclusion into FISP. We estimate two types of synergies: i) the complementarity between SCTP and FISP, i.e. whether the impact of both interventions run together is larger than the sum of the impacts of these interventions when run separately, and ii) the incremental impact of receiving FISP when a household already receives SCTP, as well as the incremental impact of receiving SCTP when a household already receives FISP. The analysis shows that there are synergies between the two policy interventions, mainly in terms of incremental impact of each programme over the other, in increasing expenditure, agricultural production and livestock.

Truly inefficient or providing better quality of care? Analysing the relationship between risk-adjusted hospital costs and patients' health outcomes.

Observed variation in hospital costs may be attributable to differences in patients' health outcomes. Previous studies have resorted to inherently incomplete outcome measures such as mortality or re-admission rates to assess this claim. This study makes use of a novel dataset of routinely collected patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) linked to inpatient records to (i) access the degree to which cost variation is associated with variation in patients' health gain and (ii) explore how far judgement about hospital cost performance changes when health outcomes are accounted for. We use multilevel modelling to address the clustering of patients in providers and isolate unexplained cost variation. We find some evidence of a U-shaped relationship between risk-adjusted costs and outcomes for hip replacement surgery. For three other procedures (knee replacement, varicose vein and groin hernia surgery), the estimated relationship is sensitive to the choice of PROM instrument. We do not observe substantial changes in cost performance estimates when outcomes are explicitly accounted for.

Myth-Busting? Confronting Six Common Perceptions about Unconditional Cash Transfers as a Poverty Reduction Strategy in Africa.

This paper summarizes evidence on six perceptions associated with cash transfer programming, using eight rigorous evaluations conducted on large-scale government unconditional cash transfers in sub-Saharan Africa under the Transfer Project. Specifically, it investigates if transfers: 1) induce higher spending on alcohol or tobacco; 2) are fully consumed (rather than invested); 3) create dependency (reduce participation in productive activities); 4) increase fertility; 5) lead to negative community-level economic impacts (including price distortion and inflation); and 6) are fiscally unsustainable. The paper presents evidence refuting each claim, leading to the conclusion that these perceptions-insofar as they are utilized in policy debates-undercut potential improvements in well-being and livelihood strengthening among the poor, which these programs can bring about in sub-Saharan Africa, and globally. It concludes by underscoring outstanding research gaps and policy implications for the continued expansion of unconditional cash transfers in the region and beyond.

Impact of Cash Transfer programs on Food Security and Nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa: A Cross-Country Analysis.

This paper explores the extent to which government-run cash transfer programs in four sub-Saharan countries affect food security and nutritional outcomes. These programs include Ghana's Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty, Kenya's Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children, Lesotho's Child Grants Program and Zambia's Child Grant model of the Social Cash Transfer program. Our cross-country analysis highlights the importance of robust program design and implementation to achieve the intended results. We find that a relatively generous and regular and predictable transfer increases the quantity and quality of food and reduces the prevalence of food insecurity. On the other hand, a smaller, lumpy and irregular transfer does not lead to impacts on food expenditures. We complement binary treatment analysis with continuous treatment analysis to understand not only the impact of being in the program but also the variability in impacts by the extent of treatment.

The Determinants of Costs and Length of Stay for Hip Fracture Patients.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: An ageing population at greater risk of proximal femoral fracture places an additional clinical and financial burden on hospital and community medical services. We analyse the variation in i) length of stay (LoS) in hospital and ii) costs across the acute care pathway for hip fracture from emergency admission, to hospital stay and follow-up outpatient appointments. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analyse patient-level data from England for 2009/10 for around 60,000 hip fracture cases in 152 hospitals using a random effects generalized linear multi-level model where the dependent variable is given by the patient's cost or length of stay (LoS). We control for socio-economic characteristics, type of fracture and intervention, co-morbidities, discharge destination of patients, and quality indicators. We also control for provider and social care characteristics. RESULTS: Older patients and those from more deprived areas have higher costs and LoS, as do those with specific co-morbidities or that develop pressure ulcers, and those transferred between hospitals or readmitted within 28 days. Costs are also higher for those having a computed tomography (CT) scan or cemented arthroscopy. Costs and LoS are lower for those admitted via a 24h emergency department, receiving surgery on the same day of admission, and discharged to their own homes. INTERPRETATION: Patient and treatment characteristics are more important as determinants of cost and LoS than provider or social care factors. A better understanding of the impact of these characteristics can support providers to develop treatment strategies and pathways to better manage this patient population.

How much should be paid for specialised treatment?

English health policy has moved towards establishing specialist multi-disciplinary teams to care for patients suffering rare or particularly complex conditions. But the healthcare resource groups (HRGs), which form the basis of the prospective payment system for hospitals, do not explicitly account for specialist treatment. There is a risk, then, that hospitals in which specialist teams are based might be financially disadvantaged if patients requiring specialised care are more expensive to treat than others allocated to the same HRG. To assess this we estimate the additional costs associated with receipt of specialised care. We analyse costs for 12,154,599 patients treated in 163 English hospitals in fiscal year 2008/09 according to the type of specialised care received, if any. We account for the distributional features of patient cost data, and estimate ordinary least squares and generalised linear regression models with random effects to isolate what influence the hospital itself has on costs. We find that, for nineteen types of specialised care, patients do not have higher costs than others allocated to the same HRG. However, costs are higher if a patient has cancer, spinal, neurosciences, cystic fibrosis, children's, rheumatology, colorectal or orthopaedic specialised services. Hospitals might be paid a surcharge for providing these forms of specialised care. We also find substantial variation in the average cost of treatment across the hospital sector, due neither to the provision of specialised care nor to other characteristics of each hospital's patients.

Hospital variation in patient-reported outcomes at the level of EQ-5D dimensions: evidence from England.

BACKGROUND: The English Department of Health has introduced routine collection of patient-reported outcome data for selected surgical procedures to facilitate patient choice and increase hospital accountability. However, using aggregate health outcome scores, such as EQ-5D utilities, for performance assessment purposes causes information loss and raises statistical and normative concerns. OBJECTIVES: . For hip replacement surgery, we explore a) the change in patient-reported outcomes between baseline and follow-up on 5 health dimensions (EQ-5D), b) the extent to which treatment impact varies across hospitals, and c) the extent to which hospital performance on EQ-5D dimensions is correlated with performance on the EQ-5D utility index. METHODS: . We combine information on pre- and postoperative EQ-5D outcomes with routine inpatient data for the financial year 2009-2010. The sample consists of 21,000 patients in 153 hospitals. We employ hierarchical ordered probit risk-adjustment models that recognize the multilevel nature of the data and the response distributions. The treatment impact is modeled as a random coefficient that varies at the hospital level. We obtain hospital-specific empirical Bayes (EB) estimates of this coefficient. We estimate separate models for each EQ-5D dimension and the EQ-5D utility index and analyze correlations of EB estimates across these. RESULTS: . Hospital treatment is associated with improvements in all EQ-5D dimensions. Variability in treatment impact is most pronounced on the mobility and usual activities dimensions. Conversely, only pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression correlate well with performance measures based on utilities. This leads to different assessments of hospital performance across metrics. CONCLUSIONS: . Our results indicate which hospitals are better than others in improving health across particular EQ-5D dimensions. We demonstrate the importance of evaluating dimensions of the EQ-5D separately for the purposes of hospital performance assessment.