Aquatic foods to nourish nations.

Despite contributing to healthy diets for billions of people, aquatic foods are often undervalued as a nutritional solution because their diversity is often reduced to the protein and energy value of a single food type ('seafood' or 'fish')1-4. Here we create a cohesive model that unites terrestrial foods with nearly 3,000 taxa of aquatic foods to understand the future impact of aquatic foods on human nutrition. We project two plausible futures to 2030: a baseline scenario with moderate growth in aquatic animal-source food (AASF) production, and a high-production scenario with a 15-million-tonne increased supply of AASFs over the business-as-usual scenario in 2030, driven largely by investment and innovation in aquaculture production. By comparing changes in AASF consumption between the scenarios, we elucidate geographic and demographic vulnerabilities and estimate health impacts from diet-related causes. Globally, we find that a high-production scenario will decrease AASF prices by 26% and increase their consumption, thereby reducing the consumption of red and processed meats that can lead to diet-related non-communicable diseases5,6 while also preventing approximately 166 million cases of inadequate micronutrient intake. This finding provides a broad evidentiary basis for policy makers and development stakeholders to capitalize on the potential of aquatic foods to reduce food and nutrition insecurity and tackle malnutrition in all its forms.

Benefits and Risks Associated With Statin Therapy for Primary Prevention in Old and Very Old Adults : Real-World Evidence From a Target Trial Emulation Study.

BACKGROUND: There is little consensus on using statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality in adults aged 75 years or older due to the underrepresentation of this population in randomized controlled trials. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the benefits and risks of using statins for primary prevention in old (aged 75 to 84 years) and very old (aged ≥85 years) adults. DESIGN: Sequential target trial emulation comparing matched cohorts initiating versus not initiating statin therapy. SETTING: Territory-wide public electronic medical records in Hong Kong. PARTICIPANTS: Persons aged 75 years or older who met indications for statin initiation from January 2008 to December 2015 were included. Participants with preexisting diagnosed CVDs at baseline, such as coronary heart disease (CHD), were excluded from the analysis. Among 69 981 eligible persons aged 75 to 84 years and 14 555 persons aged 85 years or older, 41 884 and 9457 had history of CHD equivalents (for example, diabetes) in the respective age groups. INTERVENTION: Initiation of statin therapy. MEASUREMENTS: Incidence of major CVDs (stroke, myocardial infarction, or heart failure), all-cause mortality, and major adverse events (myopathies and liver dysfunction). RESULTS: Of 42 680 matched person-trials aged 75 to 84 years and 5390 matched person-trials aged 85 years or older (average follow-up, 5.3 years), 9676 and 1600 of them developed CVDs in each age group, respectively. Risk reduction for overall CVD incidence was found for initiating statin therapy in adults aged 75 to 84 years (5-year standardized risk reduction, 1.20% [95% CI, 0.57% to 1.82%] in the intention-to-treat [ITT] analysis; 5.00% [CI, 1.11% to 8.89%] in the per protocol [PP] analysis) and in those aged 85 years or older (ITT: 4.44% [CI, 1.40% to 7.48%]; PP: 12.50% [CI, 4.33% to 20.66%]). No significantly increased risks for myopathies and liver dysfunction were found in both age groups. LIMITATION: Unmeasured confounders, such as lifestyle factors of diet and physical activity, may exist. CONCLUSION: Reduction for CVDs after statin therapy were seen in patients aged 75 years or older without increasing risks for severe adverse effects. Of note, the benefits and safety of statin therapy were consistently found in adults aged 85 years or older. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Health Bureau, the Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Evaluating different low-density lipoprotein cholesterol thresholds to initiate statin for prevention of cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A target trial emulation study.

AIM: The present study aimed to evaluate the effect of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) when initiating therapy at different baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using territory-wide public electronic medical records in Hong Kong, we emulated a sequence of trials on patients with T2DM with elevated LDL-C levels in every calendar month from January 2008 to December 2014. Pooled logistic regression was applied to obtain the hazard ratios for the major CVDs (stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure), all-cause mortality and major adverse events (myopathies and liver dysfunction) of statin therapy. RESULTS: The estimated hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of CVD incidence for statin initiation were 0.78 (0.72, 0.84) in patients with baseline LDL-C of 1.8-2.5 mmol/L (i.e., 70-99 mg/dL) and 0.90 (0.88, 0.92) in patients with baseline LDL-C ≥2.6 mmol/L (i.e., ≥100 mg/dL) in intention-to-treat analysis, which was 0.59 (0.51, 0.68) and 0.77 (0.74, 0.81) in per-protocol analysis, respectively. No significant increased risks were observed for the major adverse events. The absolute 10-year risk difference of overall CVD in per-protocol analysis was -7.1% (-10.7%, -3.6%) and -3.9% (-5.1%, -2.7%) in patients with baseline LDL-C 1.8-2.5 and ≥2.6 mmol/L, respectively. The effectiveness and safety were consistently observed in patients aged >75 years initiating statin at both LDL-C thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the threshold of 2.6 mmol/L, initiating statin in patients with a lower baseline LDL-C level at 1.8-2.5 mmol/L can further reduce the risks of CVD and all-cause mortality without significantly increasing the risk of major adverse events in patients with T2DM, including patients aged >75 years.

The effects of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) adherence on survival in patients undergoing revascularization and the determinants of DAPT adherence.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence and burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) has increased substantially in India, accompanied with increasing need for percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). Although a large government-funded insurance scheme in Maharashtra, India covered the cost of PCI for low-income patients, the high cost of post-PCI treatment, especially Dual Antiplatelet Therapy (DAPT), still caused many patients to prematurely discontinue the secondary prevention. Our study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of DAPT adherence on all-cause mortality among post-PCI patients and explore the potential determinants of DAPT adherence in India. METHOD: We collected clinical data of 4,595 patients undergoing PCI in 110 participating medical centers in Maharashtra, India from 2012 to 2015 by electronic medical records. We surveyed 2527 adult patients who were under the insurance scheme by telephone interview, usually between 6 to 12 months after their revascularization. Patients reporting DAPT continuation in the telephone survey were categorized as DAPT adherence. The outcome of the interest was all-cause mortality within 1 year after the index procedure. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard (PH) model with adjustment of potential confounders and standardization were used to explore the effects of DAPT adherence on all-cause mortality. We further used a multivariate logistic model to investigate the potential determinants of DAPT adherence. RESULTS: Out of the 2527 patients interviewed, 2064 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 470 (22.8%) discontinued DAPT prematurely within a year. After adjustment for baseline confounders, DAPT adherence was associated with lower one-year all-cause mortality compared to premature discontinuation (less than 6-month), with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.52 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = (0.36, 0.67)). We also found younger patients (OR per year was 0.99 (0.97, 1.00)) and male (vs. female, OR of 1.30 (0.99, 1.70)) had higher adherence to DAPT at one year as did patients taking antihypertensive medications (vs. non medication, OR of 1.57 (1.25, 1.95)). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest the protective effects of DAPT adherence on 1-year mortality among post-PCI patients in a low-income setting and indicate younger age, male sex and use of other preventive treatments were predictors of higher DAPT adherence.

Cross-country comparison of dietary patterns and overweight and obesity among adult women in urban Sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To derive dietary patterns (DP) among women of reproductive age (WRA) and older women in urban Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and to examine their association with body mass index (BMI), overweight and obesity. DESIGN: We used principal component analysis to derive DP. Their association with BMI, overweight and obesity was assessed using linear and multinomial logistic regression models controlling for age, marital status, education and wealth. SETTING: Cross-sectional data from prospective studies in Accra, Ghana (2008-2009), Dar es Salaam, Tanzania (2014) and Lilongwe and Kasungu, Malawi (2017-2018) were used. PARTICIPANTS: We compared WRA in Ghana (18-54 years, n 1762) and Malawi (19-48 years, n 137), and older women in Ghana (≥55 years, n 514) and Tanzania (≥50 years, n 134). RESULTS: Among WRA, protein and healthy DP were identified in both Ghana and Malawi. In Ghana, the protein DP was associated with higher odds of overweight or obesity (adjusted OR 1·82, 95 % CI 1·27, 2·60 for quintile 2). Among older women, three DP were identified in Ghana (cereal, protein and healthy) and two DP in Tanzania (protein and healthy). The protein DP was associated with higher BMI in Ghana (adjusted mean difference 2·83, 95 % CI 0·95, 4·71 for quartile 3). CONCLUSIONS: Higher quintiles of the protein DP were associated with higher BMI and odds of overweight or obesity among women in urban Ghana, but not in Malawi or Tanzania. Further research is needed to understand how DP influence overweight and obesity among adult women in urban SSA.

Household-level double burden of malnutrition in Ethiopia: a comparison of Addis Ababa and the rural district of Kersa.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the prevalence of and factors associated with different forms of household-level double burden of malnutrition (DBM) in Ethiopia. DESIGN: We defined DBM using anthropometric measures for adult overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2), child stunting (height-for-age Z-score <-2 sd) and overweight (weight-for-height Z-score ≥2 sd). We considered sixteen biological, environmental, behavioural and socio-demographic factors. Their association with DBM forms was assessed using generalised linear models. SETTING: We used data from two cross-sectional studies in an urban (Addis Ababa, January-February 2018), and rural setting (Kersa District, June-September 2019). PARTICIPANTS: Five hundred ninety-two urban and 862 rural households with an adult man, adult woman and child <5 years. RESULTS: In Addis Ababa, overweight adult and stunted child was the most prevalent DBM form (9 % (95 % CI 7, 12)). Duration of residence in Addis Ababa (adjusted OR (aOR) 1·03 (95 % CI 1·00, 1·06)), Orthodox Christianity (aOR 1·97 (95 % CI 1·01, 3·85)) and household size (aOR 1·24 (95 % CI 1·01, 1·54)) were associated factors. In Kersa, concurrent child overweight and stunting was the most prevalent DBM form (11 % (95 % CI 9, 14)). Housing quality (aOR 0·33 (95 % CI 0·20, 0·53)), household wealth (aOR 1·92 (95 % CI 1·18, 3·11) and sanitation (aOR 2·08 (95 % CI 1·07, 4·04)) were associated factors. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, only housing quality remained a significant factor. CONCLUSIONS: DBM prevalence was low among urban and rural Ethiopian households. Environmental, socio-economic and demographic factors emerged as potential associated factors. However, we observed no common associated factors among urban and rural households.

An innovative approach to improve the detection and treatment of risk factors in poor urban settings: a feasibility study in Argentina.

BACKGROUND: The effective management of cardiovascular (CVD) prevention among the population with exclusive public health coverage in Argentina is low since less than 30% of the individuals with predicted 10-year CVD risk ≥10% attend a clinical visit for CVD risk factors control in the primary care clinics (PCCs). METHODS: We conducted a non-controlled feasibility study using a mixed methods approach to evaluate acceptability, adoption and fidelity of a multi-component intervention implemented in the public healthcare system. The eligibility criteria were having exclusive public health coverage, age ≥ 40 years, residence in the PCC's catchment area and 10-year CVD risk ≥10%. The multi-component intervention addressed (1) system barriers through task shifting among the PCC's staff, protected medical appointments slots and a new CVD form and (2) Provider barriers through training for primary care physicians and CHW and individual barriers through a home-based intervention delivered by community health workers (CHWs). RESULTS: A total of 185 participants were included in the study. Of the total number of eligible participants, 82.2% attended at least one clinical visit for risk factor control. Physicians intensified drug treatment in 77% of participants with BP ≥140/90 mmHg and 79.5% of participants with diabetes, increased the proportion of participants treated according to GCP from 21 to 32.6% in hypertensive participants, 7.4 to 33.3% in high CVD risk and 1.4 to 8.7% in very high CVD risk groups. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure were lower at the end of follow up (156.9 to 145.4 mmHg and 92.9 to 88.9 mmHg, respectively) and control of hypertension (BP < 140/90 mmHg) increased from 20.3 to 35.5%. CONCLUSION: The proposed CHWs-led intervention was feasible and well accepted to improve the detection and treatment of risk factors in the poor population with exclusive public health coverage and with moderate or high CVD risk at the primary care setting in Argentina. Task sharing activities with CHWs did not only stimulate teamwork among PCC staff, but it also improved quality of care. This study showed that community health workers could have a more active role in the detection and clinical management of CVD risk factors in low-income communities.

A qualitative inquiry of access to and quality of primary healthcare in seven communities in East and West Africa (SevenCEWA): perspectives of stakeholders, healthcare providers and users.

BACKGROUND: Universal health coverage is one of the Sustainable Development Goal targets known to improve population health and reduce financial burden. There is little qualitative data on access to and quality of primary healthcare in East and West Africa. The aim of this study was to describe the viewpoints of healthcare users, healthcare providers and other stakeholders on health-seeking behaviour, access to and quality of healthcare in seven communities in East and West Africa. METHODS: A qualitative study was conducted in four communities in Nigeria and one community each in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania in 2018. Purposive sampling was used to recruit: 155 respondents (mostly healthcare users) for 24 focus group discussions, 25 healthcare users, healthcare providers and stakeholders for in-depth interviews and 11 healthcare providers and stakeholders for key informant interviews. The conceptual framework in this study combined elements of the Health Belief Model, Health Care Utilisation Model, four 'As' of access to care, and pathway model to better understand the a priori themes on access to and quality of primary healthcare as well as health-seeking behaviours of the study respondents. A content analysis of the data was done using MAXQDA 2018 qualitative software to identify these a priori themes and emerging themes. RESULTS: Access to primary healthcare in the seven communities was limited, especially use of health insurance. Quality of care was perceived to be unacceptable in public facilities whereas cost of care was unaffordable in private facilities. Health providers and users as well as stakeholders highlighted shortage of equipment, frequent drug stock-outs and long waiting times as major issues, but had varying opinions on satisfaction with care. Use of herbal medicines and other traditional treatments delayed or deterred seeking modern healthcare in the Nigerian sites. CONCLUSIONS: There was a substantial gap in primary healthcare coverage and quality in the selected communities in rural and urban East and West Africa. Alternative models of healthcare delivery that address social and health inequities, through affordable health insurance, can be used to fill this gap and facilitate achieving universal health coverage.

Three Public Health Interventions Could Save 94 Million Lives in 25 Years.

BACKGROUND: Preventable noncommunicable diseases, mostly cardiovascular diseases, are responsible for 38 million deaths annually. A few well-documented interventions have the potential to prevent many of these deaths, but a large proportion of the population in need does not have access to these interventions. We quantified the global mortality impact of 3 high-impact and feasible interventions: scaling up treatment of high blood pressure to 70%, reducing sodium intake by 30%, and eliminating the intake of artificial trans fatty acids. METHODS: We used global data on mean blood pressure levels and sodium and trans fat intake by country, age, and sex from a pooled analysis of population health surveys, and regional estimates of current coverage of antihypertensive medications, and cause-specific mortality rates in each country, as well, with projections from 2015 to 2040. We used the most recent meta-analyses of epidemiological studies to derive relative risk reductions for each intervention. We estimated the proportional effect of each intervention on reducing mortality from related causes by using a generalized version of the population-attributable fraction. The effect of antihypertensive medications and lowering sodium intake were modeled through their impact on blood pressure and as immediate increase/reduction to the proposed targets. RESULTS: The combined effect of the 3 interventions delayed 94.3 million (95% uncertainty interval, 85.7-102.7) deaths during 25 years. Increasing coverage of antihypertensive medications to 70% alone would delay 39.4 million deaths (35.9-43.0), whereas reducing sodium intake by 30% would delay another 40.0 million deaths (35.1-44.6) and eliminating trans fat would delay an additional 14.8 million (14.7-15.0). The estimated impact of trans fat elimination was largest in South Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa had the largest proportion of premature delayed deaths out of all delayed deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Three effective interventions can save almost 100 million lives globally within 25 years. National and international efforts to scale up these interventions should be a focus of cardiovascular disease prevention programs.

Hypothetical Lifestyle Strategies in Middle-Aged Women and the Long-Term Risk of Stroke.

Background and Purpose- Long-term effect of lifestyle changes on stroke incidence has not been estimated in randomized trials. We used observational data to estimate the incidence of stroke under hypothetical lifestyle strategies in the NHS (Nurses' Health Study). Methods- We considered 3 nondietary strategies (smoking cessation, exercising ≥30 min/d, gradual body mass index reduction if overweight/obese) and several dietary strategies (eating ≥3 servings/wk of fish, ≤3 servings/wk of unprocessed red meat, no processed red meat, ≥1 servings/d of nuts, etc). We used the parametric g-formula to estimate the 26-year risk of stroke under these strategies. Results- In 59 727 women, mean age 52 years at baseline in 1986, the estimated 26-year risks under no lifestyle interventions were 4.7% for total stroke, 2.4% for ischemic stroke, and 0.7% for hemorrhagic stroke. Under the combined nondietary interventions, the estimated 26-year risk of total stroke was 3.5% (95% CI, 2.6%-4.3%) and ischemic stroke was 1.6% (95% CI, 1.1%-2.1%). Smaller reductions in total stroke risk were estimated under isolated dietary strategies of increased intake of fish and nuts and reduced intake of unprocessed red meat. Ischemic stroke risk was lower under reduced intake of unprocessed and processed red meat, and hemorrhagic stroke risk was lower under a strategy of increased fish consumption. Conclusions- In this population of middle-aged women, sustained, lifestyle modifications were estimated to reduce the 26-year risk of total stroke by 25% and ischemic stroke by 36%. Sustained dietary modifications were estimated to reduce the 26-year risk of total stroke by 23%.

Iran in transition.

Being the second-largest country in the Middle East, Iran has a long history of civilisation during which several dynasties have been overthrown and established and health-related structures have been reorganised. Iran has had the replacement of traditional practices with modern medical treatments, emergence of multiple pioneer scientists and physicians with great contributions to the advancement of science, environmental and ecological changes in addition to large-scale natural disasters, epidemics of multiple communicable diseases, and the shift towards non-communicable diseases in recent decades. Given the lessons learnt from political instabilities in the past centuries and the approaches undertaken to overcome health challenges at the time, Iran has emerged as it is today. Iran is now a country with a population exceeding 80 million, mainly inhabiting urban regions, and has an increasing burden of non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, diabetes, malignancies, mental disorders, substance abuse, and road injuries.

Weight Gain After Smoking Cessation and Lifestyle Strategies to Reduce it.

BACKGROUND: Weight gain following smoking cessation reduces the incentive to quit, especially among women. Exercise and diet interventions may reduce postcessation weight gain, but their long-term effect has not been estimated in randomized trials. METHODS: We estimated the long-term reduction in postcessation weight gain among women under smoking cessation alone or combined with (1) moderate-to-vigorous exercise (15, 30, 45, 60 minutes/day), and (2) exercise and diet modification (≤2 servings/week of unprocessed red meat; ≥5 servings/day of fruits and vegetables; minimal sugar-sweetened beverages, sweets and desserts, potato chips or fried potatoes, and processed red meat). RESULTS: Among 10,087 eligible smokers in the Nurses' Health Study and 9,271 in the Nurses' Health Study II, the estimated 10-year mean weights under smoking cessation were 75.0 (95% CI = 74.7, 75.5) kg and 79.0 (78.2, 79.6) kg, respectively. Pooling both cohorts, the estimated postcessation mean weight gain was 4.9 (7.3, 2.6) kg lower under a hypothetical strategy of exercising at least 30 minutes/day and diet modification, and 5.9 (8.0, 3.8) kg lower under exercising at least 60 minutes/day and diet modification, compared with smoking cessation without exercising. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, substantial weight gain occurred in women after smoking cessation, but we estimate that exercise and dietary modifications could have averted most of it.

Hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control and predicted 10-year CVD risk: a cross-sectional study of seven communities in East and West Africa (SevenCEWA).

BACKGROUND: Few studies have characterized the epidemiology and management of hypertension across several communities with comparable methodologies in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension and predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk across seven sites in East and West Africa. METHODS: Between June and August 2018, we conducted household surveys among adults aged 18 years and above in 7 communities in Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. Following a standardized protocol, we collected data on socio-demographics, health insurance, and healthcare utilization; and measured blood pressure using digital blood pressure monitors. We estimated the 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using a country-specific risk score and fitted hierarchical models to identify determinants of hypertension prevalence, awareness, and treatment. RESULTS: We analyzed data of 3549 participants. The mean age was 39·7 years (SD 15·4), 60·5% of whom were women, 9·6% had ever smoked cigarettes, and 32·7% were overweight/obese. A quarter of the participants (25·4%) had hypertension, more than a half of whom (57·2%) were aware that they had diagnosed hypertension. Among those diagnosed, 50·5% were taking medication, and among those taking medication 47·3% had controlled blood pressure. After adjusting for other determinants, older age was associated with increased hypertension prevalence, awareness, and treatment whereas primary education was associated with lower hypertension prevalence. Health insurance was associated with lower hypertension prevalence and higher chances of treatment. Median predicted 10-yr CVD risk across sites was 4·9% (Interquartile range (IQR), 2·4%, 10·3%) and 13·2% had predicted 10-year CVD risk of 20% or greater while 7·1% had predicted 10-year CVD risk of > 30%. CONCLUSION: In seven communities in east and west Africa, a quarter of participants had hypertension, about 40% were unaware, half of those aware were treated, and half of those treated had controlled blood pressure. The 10-year predicted CVD risk was low across sites. Access to health insurance is needed to improve awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa.

Prevalence and predictors of overweight and obesity in Brazilian immigrants in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity are important risk factors for chronic non-communicable diseases, and their prevalence is on the rise worldwide. This study seeks to describe the prevalence and predictors of overweight and obesity in Brazilian immigrants living in Massachusetts, United States of America (USA). METHODS: Modeled after a survey on behavioral risk factors for chronic disease conducted annually in Brazil (Vigilância de Fatores de Risco e Proteção para Doenças Crônicas por Inquérito Telefônico: Vigitel), Brazilian immigrants aged 18+ (n = 361) were surveyed between December 2013 and March 2014. Information was obtained from consenting participants regarding their demographic characteristics, physical activity, dietary and lifestyle habits, and other behavioral risk factors. Weight status was estimated from body mass index (BMI), calculated from self-reported height and weight data. Participants were categorized as overweight/obese if their BMI was ≥25; overweight and obese categories were combined to ensure appropriate sample size. Prevalence of overweight/obesity was estimated using STATA, and significant predictors were identified via multi-variable logistic regression. Odds ratio (OR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and p-values were determined. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of overweight/obesity in the sample was 47.6%. Significant predictors of overweight and obesity were gender (men OR 2.30, 95% CI: 1.10, 3.78; women are comparison group), working in the 3 months prior to the survey (OR 2.90, 95% CI: 1.01, 8.30), and longer duration living in the USA (OR per additional year 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.11). Significant dietary predictors of overweight/obesity included 5 or more days per week of consumption of red meat (OR red meat 3.70, 95% CI: 1.47, 9.26) or of sweetened beverages, like soft drinks also known as soda (OR soda 2.40, 95% CI: 1.00, 5.78) compared with less frequent consumption of these foods. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that long duration of time lived in the USA increases odds of overweight and obesity for Brazilian immigrants living in Massachusetts. Efforts to curb increases in overweight and obesity in this population should focus not only on the men and those who work but also the women. Possible intervention measures should target soda (soft drink) and red meat consumption in Brazilian immigrants.

Iranian general populations' and health care providers' preferences for benefits and harms of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: The use of statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases is associated with different benefit and harm outcomes. The aime of this study is how important these outcomes are for people and what people's preferences are. METHODS: We conducted a preference-eliciting survey incorporating a best-worst scaling (BWS) instrument in Iran from June to November 2019. The relative importance of 13 statins-related outcomes was assessed on a sample of 1085 participants, including 913 general population (486 women) and 172 healthcare providers from the population covered by urban and rural primary health care centers. The participants made trade-off decisions and selected the most and least worrisome outcomes concurrently from 13 choice sets; each contains four outcomes generated using the balanced incomplete block design. RESULTS: According to the mean (SD) BWS scores, which can be (+ 4) in maximum and (- 4) in minimum, in the general population, the most worrisome outcomes were severe stroke (3.37 (0.8)), severe myocardial infarction (2.71(0.7)), and cancer (2.69 (1.33)). While myopathy (- 3. 03 (1.03)), nausea/headache (- 2.69 (0.94)), and treatment discontinuation due to side effects (- 2.24 (1.14)) were the least worrisome outcomes. Preferences were similar between rural and urban areas and among health care providers and the general population with overlapping uncertainty intervals. CONCLUSION: The rank of health outcomes may be similar in various socio-cultural contexts. The preferences for benefits and harms of statin therapy are essential to assess benefit-harm balance when recommending statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases.

Particulate matter air pollution and national and county life expectancy loss in the USA: A spatiotemporal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is hazardous to health. Our aim was to directly estimate the health and longevity impacts of current PM2.5 concentrations and the benefits of reductions from 1999 to 2015, nationally and at county level, for the entire contemporary population of the contiguous United States. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used vital registration and population data with information on sex, age, cause of death, and county of residence. We used four Bayesian spatiotemporal models, with different adjustments for other determinants of mortality, to directly estimate mortality and life expectancy loss due to current PM2.5 pollution and the benefits of reductions since 1999, nationally and by county. The covariates included in the adjusted models were per capita income; percentage of population whose family income is below the poverty threshold, who are of Black or African American race, who have graduated from high school, who live in urban areas, and who are unemployed; cumulative smoking; and mean temperature and relative humidity. In the main model, which adjusted for these covariates and for unobserved county characteristics through the use of county-specific random intercepts, PM2.5 pollution in excess of the lowest observed concentration (2.8 µg/m3) was responsible for an estimated 15,612 deaths (95% credible interval 13,248-17,945) in females and 14,757 deaths (12,617-16,919) in males. These deaths would lower national life expectancy by an estimated 0.15 years (0.13-0.17) for women and 0.13 years (0.11-0.15) for men. The life expectancy loss due to PM2.5 was largest around Los Angeles and in some southern states such as Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Alabama. At any PM2.5 concentration, life expectancy loss was, on average, larger in counties with lower income and higher poverty rate than in wealthier counties. Reductions in PM2.5 since 1999 have lowered mortality in all but 14 counties where PM2.5 increased slightly. The main limitation of our study, similar to other observational studies, is that it is not guaranteed for the observed associations to be causal. We did not have annual county-level data on other important determinants of mortality, such as healthcare access and quality and diet, but these factors were adjusted for with use of county-specific random intercepts. CONCLUSIONS: According to our estimates, recent reductions in particulate matter pollution in the USA have resulted in public health benefits. Nonetheless, we estimate that current concentrations are associated with mortality impacts and loss of life expectancy, with larger impacts in counties with lower income and higher poverty rate.

Mortality due to low-quality health systems in the universal health coverage era: a systematic analysis of amenable deaths in 137 countries.

BACKGROUND: Universal health coverage has been proposed as a strategy to improve health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, this is contingent on the provision of good-quality health care. We estimate the excess mortality for conditions targeted in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) that are amenable to health care and the portion of this excess mortality due to poor-quality care in 137 LMICs, in which excess mortality refers to deaths that could have been averted in settings with strong health systems. METHODS: Using data from the 2016 Global Burden of Disease study, we calculated mortality amenable to personal health care for 61 SDG conditions by comparing case fatality between each LMIC with corresponding numbers from 23 high-income reference countries with strong health systems. We used data on health-care utilisation from population surveys to separately estimate the portion of amenable mortality attributable to non-utilisation of health care versus that attributable to receipt of poor-quality care. FINDINGS: 15·6 million excess deaths from 61 conditions occurred in LMICs in 2016. After excluding deaths that could be prevented through public health measures, 8·6 million excess deaths were amenable to health care of which 5·0 million were estimated to be due to receipt of poor-quality care and 3·6 million were due to non-utilisation of health care. Poor quality of health care was a major driver of excess mortality across conditions, from cardiovascular disease and injuries to neonatal and communicable disorders. INTERPRETATION: Universal health coverage for SDG conditions could avert 8·6 million deaths per year but only if expansion of service coverage is accompanied by investments into high-quality health systems. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Training opportunities for noncommunicable diseases research in Latin America: A scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: To identify gaps in postgraduate training and options for building capacity in noncommunicable disease (NCDs) research in Latin America. METHODS: This was a scoping review of postgraduate opportunities in NCDs at top universities in Latin America and of training grants awarded by international funding bodies. Three global university rankings were considered-the QS Ranking, the Shanghai Ranking, and the Times Ranking. Latin American universities appearing in at least two of these were selected. University websites were searched for current graduate programs in biostatistics, epidemiology, global health, health economics, and public health. Information was extracted, summarized, and evaluated to identify any programs focused on NCDs. In addition, seven international funding bodies' websites were searched for training grants. RESULTS: In all, 33 universities offering 72 postgraduate programs met the inclusion criteria. One of these programs was exclusively devoted to NCD, and 12 offered NCDs as a dissertation research topic. Only two training grants were awarded to a Latin American institution for NCD capacity building. There are few NCD research training programs in Latin America and only one program exclusively focused on NCDs. CONCLUSION: There seem to be few NCD-specific research training programs in Latin America. Leveraging existing programs and expanding those with a focus on NCDs could help enhance NCD research capacity in the region. These initiatives should be supported by international funding agencies through more funding opportunities.

Geographic and sociodemographic variation of cardiovascular disease risk in India: A cross-sectional study of 797,540 adults.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in India. Yet, evidence on the CVD risk of India's population is limited. To inform health system planning and effective targeting of interventions, this study aimed to determine how CVD risk-and the factors that determine risk-varies among states in India, by rural-urban location, and by individual-level sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used 2 large household surveys carried out between 2012 and 2014, which included a sample of 797,540 adults aged 30 to 74 years across India. The main outcome variable was the predicted 10-year risk of a CVD event as calculated with the Framingham risk score. The Harvard-NHANES, Globorisk, and WHO-ISH scores were used in secondary analyses. CVD risk and the prevalence of CVD risk factors were examined by state, rural-urban residence, age, sex, household wealth, and education. Mean CVD risk varied from 13.2% (95% CI: 12.7%-13.6%) in Jharkhand to 19.5% (95% CI: 19.1%-19.9%) in Kerala. CVD risk tended to be highest in North, Northeast, and South India. District-level wealth quintile (based on median household wealth in a district) and urbanization were both positively associated with CVD risk. Similarly, household wealth quintile and living in an urban area were positively associated with CVD risk among both sexes, but the associations were stronger among women than men. Smoking was more prevalent in poorer household wealth quintiles and in rural areas, whereas body mass index, high blood glucose, and systolic blood pressure were positively associated with household wealth and urban location. Men had a substantially higher (age-standardized) smoking prevalence (26.2% [95% CI: 25.7%-26.7%] versus 1.8% [95% CI: 1.7%-1.9%]) and mean systolic blood pressure (126.9 mm Hg [95% CI: 126.7-127.1] versus 124.3 mm Hg [95% CI: 124.1-124.5]) than women. Important limitations of this analysis are the high proportion of missing values (27.1%) in the main outcome variable, assessment of diabetes through a 1-time capillary blood glucose measurement, and the inability to exclude participants with a current or previous CVD event. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified substantial variation in CVD risk among states and sociodemographic groups in India-findings that can facilitate effective targeting of CVD programs to those most at risk and most in need. While the CVD risk scores used have not been validated in South Asian populations, the patterns of variation in CVD risk among the Indian population were similar across all 4 risk scoring systems.

Hypothetical interventions to prevent stroke: an application of the parametric g-formula to a healthy middle-aged population.

The effects of interventions on multiple lifestyle and metabolic risk factors, initiated in midlife or later in a healthy population, on the long-term risk of first-ever stroke is not known. A particular methodological challenge in observational studies is to estimate the unbiased effect of a time-varying exposure in presence of time-varying confounders, if those confounders are affected by prior exposure. In such cases, the parametric g-formula can be applied to estimate an unbiased effect. We applied the parametric g-formula to estimate the 18-years (1994-2012) cumulative stroke risk under different scenarios of hypothetical interventions on levels of blood pressure, cholesterol, weight, physical activity, smoking and alcohol intake; and compared these to the observed scenario, to calculate the population risk ratios and risk differences. Among 14,796 eligible participants in the prospective, population-based Tromsø study (baseline mean age 46.1 years, 51% women), the observed 18-years stroke risk was 5.9%. A feasible joint hypothetical intervention on six lifestyle and metabolic risk factors would reduce the 18-year stroke risk by 32% (95% confidence interval 16, 44). A combination of more intensive interventions reduced the estimated 18-years stroke risk by 64% (95% confidence interval 40, 80). Blood pressure reduction and quitting smoking significantly reduced the risk when applied separately.