A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions.

BACKGROUND: Although an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from Northern to Southern Italy has been reported, the burden of asymptomatic individuals in different Italian regions is currently unknown. METHODS: A probabilistic approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was applied to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. The model defined prevalence by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment rate, and migration rate from the Italian National database. Viraemic infection by age group was estimated for each region by main HCV transmission routes of individuals for stage F0-F3 (i.e. patients without liver cirrhosis and thus potentially asymptomatic) and F4 (patients with liver cirrhosis, thus potentially symptomatic). RESULTS: By January 2020, it was estimated that there were 409,184 Italian individuals with HCV (prevalence of 0.68%; 95% CI: 0.54-0.82%), of which 300,171 (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.6%) were stage F0-F3. Considering all individuals with HCV in stage F0-F3, the geographical distributions (expressed as the proportion of HCV infected individuals by macroarea within the overall estimated number of F0-F3 individuals and prevalence values, expressed as the percentage of individuals with HCV versus the overall number of individuals for each macroarea) were as follows: North 42.1% (0.45%; 95% CI: 0.36-0.55%), Central 24.1% (0.61%; 95% CI: 0.48-0.74%), South 23.2% (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.61%), and the Isles 10.6% (0.49%; 95% CI: 0.39-0.59%). The population of people who inject drugs accounted for 50.4% of all individuals infected (F0-F3). Undiagnosed individuals (F0-F3) were ~ 15 years younger (⁓ 50 years) compared with patients with stage F4 (⁓ 65 years), with similar age distributions across macroareas. In contrast to what has been reported on HCV epidemiology in Italy, an increasing trend in the proportion of potentially undiagnosed individuals with HCV (absolute number within the F0-F3) from South (23.2%) to North (42.1%) emerged, independent of similar regional prevalence values. CONCLUSION: This targeted approach, which addresses the specific profile of undiagnosed individuals, is helpful in planning effective elimination strategies by region in Italy and could be a useful methodology for other countries in implementing their elimination plans.

Addressing HCV Elimination Barriers in Italy: Healthcare Resource Utilization and Cost Impact Using 8 Weeks' Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir Therapy.

INTRODUCTION: In Italy, hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is achievable; however, barriers remain to achieving the World Health Organization's elimination targets, and have become more pronounced with the spread of COVID-19. Glecaprevir/pibrentasvir (G/P) is a direct-acting antiviral therapy for HCV, approved for 8-week treatment in patients without cirrhosis, and with compensated cirrhosis (CC). Previously, 12 weeks of therapy was recommended for patients with CC. Shortened treatment may reduce the burden on healthcare resources, allowing more patients to be treated. This study presents the benefits that 8-week vs 12-week treatment with G/P may have in Italy. METHODS: A multicohort Markov model was used to assess the collective number of healthcare visits and time on treatment with 8-week vs 12-week G/P in the HCV-infected population of Italy from 2019 to 2030, using healthcare resource data from post-marketing observational studies of G/P. Increased treatment capacity and downstream clinical and economic benefits were also assessed assuming the reallocation of saved healthcare visits to treat more patients. RESULTS: Modeled outcomes showed that by 2030, 8-week treatment saved 27,006 years on therapy compared with 12-week treatment, with 21,065 fewer hepatologist visits. Reallocating these resources to treat more patients could increase capacity to treat 5064 (1.4%) more patients with 8 weeks of G/P, all with CC. This increased treatment capacity would further avoid 2257 cases of end-stage liver disease, 893 liver-related deaths, and provide net savings to the healthcare system of nearly €70 million. CONCLUSION: The modeled comparisons between 8- and 12-week treatment with G/P show that shorter treatment duration can lead to greater time and resource savings, both in terms of healthcare visits and downstream costs. These benefits have the potential to enable the treatment of more patients to overcome elimination barriers in Italy through programs aimed to engage and treat targeted HCV populations.

Effectiveness and safety of glecaprevir/pibrentasvir in chronic hepatitis C patients: Results of the Italian cohort of a post-marketing observational study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The MARS post-marketing, observational study evaluates glecaprevir/pibrentasvir in a large population of Italian patients who are infected with HCV. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Achievement of SVR12 was the primary endpoint in the overall population and by subpopulations of interest (treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients, subjects infected with different HCV genotype/sub-genotype, cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients, patients with different severity of fibrosis, patients with an APRI score ≥1, subjects with comorbidities, HIV-coinfected patients, elderly patients and people who use drugs). Safety and quality of life (assessed by SF-36 and Work Productivity and Activity Impairment) were also evaluated. RESULTS: The SVR12 rate was 99.4% (319/321; 95% CI: 97.8-99.8%) in the core population with sufficient follow-up (n = 321), 99.7% (289/290) in 8-week treated patients, and high (>96%) across subgroups. Only three patients (0.9%) had treatment-related adverse events that led to treatment discontinuation. In total, 30.1% of patients showed an improvement of ≥2.5 points in the Physical Component Summary of the SF-36 from baseline to the end of treatment, and this figure raised to 37.5% with the achievement of SVR12. Corresponding values for MCS were 42.2% and 42.8%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Glecaprevir/pibrentasvir is safe and effective across subpopulations who are underserved in clinical trials.