Continent-wide declines in shallow reef life over a decade of ocean warming.

Human society is dependent on nature1,2, but whether our ecological foundations are at risk remains unknown in the absence of systematic monitoring of species' populations3. Knowledge of species fluctuations is particularly inadequate in the marine realm4. Here we assess the population trends of 1,057 common shallow reef species from multiple phyla at 1,636 sites around Australia over the past decade. Most populations decreased over this period, including many tropical fishes, temperate invertebrates (particularly echinoderms) and southwestern Australian macroalgae, whereas coral populations remained relatively stable. Population declines typically followed heatwave years, when local water temperatures were more than 0.5 °C above temperatures in 2008. Following heatwaves5,6, species abundances generally tended to decline near warm range edges, and increase near cool range edges. More than 30% of shallow invertebrate species in cool latitudes exhibited high extinction risk, with rapidly declining populations trapped by deep ocean barriers, preventing poleward retreat as temperatures rise. Greater conservation effort is needed to safeguard temperate marine ecosystems, which are disproportionately threatened and include species with deep evolutionary roots. Fundamental among such efforts, and broader societal needs to efficiently adapt to interacting anthropogenic and natural pressures, is greatly expanded monitoring of species' population trends7,8.

Relationships between invertebrate benthos, environmental drivers and pollutants at a subcontinental scale.

Marine ecosystems are structured by an array of natural and anthropogenic drivers, their diverse influences varying between different community types and across space. We assessed consistency in variation in composition and richness for three communities (macro- and meio-faunal communities associated with macroalgae, and soft-sediment infaunal communities) across natural and pollution gradients at the subcontinental scale of southeastern Australia. Community structure varied with natural environmental factors (temperature, wave exposure) and, to a lesser extent, pollutant loads (catchment effects, heavy metals, hydrocarbons and nutrients) across 43 sites spanning 2700 km. The community types showed differing sensitivities to pollutants: algal macrofauna was most strongly associated with hydrocarbon pollution and nutrient loading; algal meiofauna with heavy metals and nutrients; and infauna with catchment effects and nutrients. Different taxonomic resolutions were needed to detect significant pollution relationships for the three community types, indicating that monitoring programmes are most effective if pollutant- and fauna-specific.