Characterizing the dynamics, reactivity and controllability of moods in depression with a Kalman filter.

BACKGROUND: Mood disorders involve a complex interplay between multifaceted internal emotional states, and complex external inputs. Dynamical systems theory suggests that this interplay between aspects of moods and environmental stimuli may hence determine key psychopathological features of mood disorders, including the stability of mood states, the response to external inputs, how controllable mood states are, and what interventions are most likely to be effective. However, a comprehensive computational approach to all these aspects has not yet been undertaken. METHODS: Here, we argue that the combination of ecological momentary assessments (EMA) with a well-established dynamical systems framework-the humble Kalman filter-enables a comprehensive account of all these aspects. We first introduce the key features of the Kalman filter and optimal control theory and their relationship to aspects of psychopathology. We then examine the psychometric and inferential properties of combining EMA data with Kalman filtering across realistic scenarios. Finally, we apply the Kalman filter to a series of EMA datasets comprising over 700 participants with and without symptoms of depression. RESULTS: The results show a naive Kalman filter approach performs favourably compared to the standard vector autoregressive approach frequently employed, capturing key aspects of the data better. Furthermore, it suggests that the depressed state involves alterations to interactions between moods; alterations to how moods responds to external inputs; and as a result an alteration in how controllable mood states are. We replicate these findings qualitatively across datasets and explore an extension to optimal control theory to guide therapeutic interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Mood dynamics are richly and profoundly altered in depressed states. The humble Kalman filter is a well-established, rich framework to characterise mood dynamics. Its application to EMA data is valid; straightforward; and likely to result in substantial novel insights both into mechanisms and treatments.

Genome-wide association study meta-analysis of dizygotic twinning illuminates genetic regulation of female fecundity.

STUDY QUESTION: Which genetic factors regulate female propensity for giving birth to spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twins? SUMMARY ANSWER: We identified four new loci, GNRH1, FSHR, ZFPM1, and IPO8, in addition to previously identified loci, FSHB and SMAD3. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The propensity to give birth to DZ twins runs in families. Earlier, we reported that FSHB and SMAD3 as associated with DZ twinning and female fertility measures. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis (GWAMA) of mothers of spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twins (8265 cases, 264 567 controls) and of independent DZ twin offspring (26 252 cases, 417 433 controls). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Over 700 000 mothers of DZ twins, twin individuals and singletons from large cohorts in Australia/New Zealand, Europe, and the USA were carefully screened to exclude twins born after use of ARTs. Genetic association analyses by cohort were followed by meta-analysis, phenome wide association studies (PheWAS), in silico and in vivo annotations, and Zebrafish functional validation. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: This study enlarges the sample size considerably from previous efforts, finding four genome-wide significant loci, including two novel signals and a further two novel genes that are implicated by gene level enrichment analyses. The novel loci, GNRH1 and FSHR, have well-established roles in female reproduction whereas ZFPM1 and IPO8 have not previously been implicated in female fertility. We found significant genetic correlations with multiple aspects of female reproduction and body size as well as evidence for significant selection against DZ twinning during human evolution. The 26 top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from our GWAMA in European-origin participants weakly predicted the crude twinning rates in 47 non-European populations (r = 0.23 between risk score and population prevalence, s.e. 0.11, 1-tail P = 0.058) indicating that genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are needed in African and Asian populations to explore the causes of their respectively high and low DZ twinning rates. In vivo functional tests in zebrafish for IPO8 validated its essential role in female, but not male, fertility. In most regions, risk SNPs linked to known expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs). Top SNPs were associated with in vivo reproductive hormone levels with the top pathways including hormone ligand binding receptors and the ovulation cycle. LARGE SCALE DATA: The full DZT GWAS summary statistics will made available after publication through the GWAS catalog (https://www.ebi.ac.uk/gwas/). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our study only included European ancestry cohorts. Inclusion of data from Africa (with the highest twining rate) and Asia (with the lowest rate) would illuminate further the biology of twinning and female fertility. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: About one in 40 babies born in the world is a twin and there is much speculation on why twinning runs in families. We hope our results will inform investigations of ovarian response in new and existing ARTs and the causes of female infertility. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): Support for the Netherlands Twin Register came from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMW) grants, 904-61-193, 480-04-004, 400-05-717, Addiction-31160008, 911-09-032, Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI.NL, 184.021.007), Royal Netherlands Academy of Science Professor Award (PAH/6635) to DIB, European Research Council (ERC-230374), Rutgers University Cell and DNA Repository (NIMH U24 MH068457-06), the Avera Institute, Sioux Falls, South Dakota (USA) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH R01 HD042157-01A1) and the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health and Grand Opportunity grants 1RC2 MH089951. The QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute (QIMR) study was supported by grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (241944, 339462, 389927, 389875, 389891, 389892, 389938, 443036, 442915, 442981, 496610, 496739, 552485, 552498, 1050208, 1075175). L.Y. is funded by Australian Research Council (Grant number DE200100425). The Minnesota Center for Twin and Family Research (MCTFR) was supported in part by USPHS Grants from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (AA09367 and AA11886) and the National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA05147, DA13240, and DA024417). The Women's Genome Health Study (WGHS) was funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (HL043851 and HL080467) and the National Cancer Institute (CA047988 and UM1CA182913), with support for genotyping provided by Amgen. Data collection in the Finnish Twin Registry has been supported by the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, the Broad Institute, ENGAGE-European Network for Genetic and Genomic Epidemiology, FP7-HEALTH-F4-2007, grant agreement number 201413, National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (grants AA-12502, AA-00145, AA-09203, AA15416, and K02AA018755) and the Academy of Finland (grants 100499, 205585, 118555, 141054, 264146, 308248, 312073 and 336823 to J. Kaprio). TwinsUK is funded by the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Versus Arthritis, European Union Horizon 2020, Chronic Disease Research Foundation (CDRF), Zoe Ltd and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network (CRN) and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King's College London. For NESDA, funding was obtained from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (Geestkracht program grant 10000-1002), the Center for Medical Systems Biology (CSMB, NVVO Genomics), Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI-NL), VU University's Institutes for Health and Care Research (EMGO+) and Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, University Medical Center Groningen, Leiden University Medical Center, National Institutes of Health (NIH, ROI D0042157-01A, MH081802, Grand Opportunity grants 1 RC2 Ml-1089951 and IRC2 MH089995). Part of the genotyping and analyses were funded by the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health. Computing was supported by BiG Grid, the Dutch e-Science Grid, which is financially supported by NWO. Work in the Del Bene lab was supported by the Programme Investissements d'Avenir IHU FOReSIGHT (ANR-18-IAHU-01). C.R. was supported by an EU Horizon 2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie Action fellowship (H2020-MSCA-IF-2014 #661527). H.S. and K.S. are employees of deCODE Genetics/Amgen. The other authors declare no competing financial interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Associations between childhood adversity, psychiatric symptoms, and self-esteem outcomes in adolescents and young adults: An experience sampling study.

OBJECTIVES: Self-esteem and self-esteem stability are important factors during adolescence and young adulthood that can be negatively impacted by childhood adversity and psychiatric symptoms. We examined whether childhood adversity and psychiatric symptoms are associated with decreased global self-esteem as well as increased self-esteem instability as measured with experience sampling method. In addition, we examined if childhood adversity moderates the association between psychiatric symptoms and self-esteem outcomes. METHODS: Our study consisted of 788 adolescents and young adults who were part of a twin pair. The twin structure was not of interest to the current study. Mean age was 16.8 (SD = 2.38, range: 14-25), 42% was male. We used a multilevel modeling approach to examine our hypotheses to account for the presence of twins in the data set. RESULTS: Childhood adversity and psychiatric symptoms were negatively associated with global self-esteem (respectively standardized ß = -.18, SE = 0.04, p < .0001 and standardized ß = -.45, SE = 0.04, p < .0001), with a larger effect for psychiatric symptoms. Similarly, both were associated with increased self-esteem instability (respectively standardized ß = .076, SE = 0.025, p = .002 and standardized ß = .11, SE = 0.021, p < .0001). In addition, interactions between childhood adversity and psychiatric symptoms on both global self-esteem (standardized ß = .06, SE = 0.01, p < .0001) and self-esteem instability (standardized ß = -.002, SE = 0.0006, p = .001) were found, showing that the negative association of psychiatric symptoms with self-esteem outcomes is less pronounced in young people with higher levels of childhood adversity, or formulated differently, is more pronounced in young people with little or no exposure to childhood adversity. CONCLUSION: Global self-esteem and self-esteem instability in young people are influenced by both current psychiatric symptomatology and exposure to childhood adversity. Those with more psychiatric symptoms show worse self-esteem and higher self-esteem instability, which is moderated by childhood adversity. For young people with high childhood adversity levels lower self-esteem and higher self-esteem instability are less influenced by reductions in psychiatric symptoms.

Gender differences in the associations between childhood adversity and psychopathology in the general population.

PURPOSE: To explore gender differences of the associations between childhood adversity (CA) subtypes and psychiatric symptoms in the general population. METHODS: Data of 791 participants were retrieved from a general population twin cohort. The Symptom Checklist-90 Revised (SCL-90) and the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire were used to assess overall psychopathology with nine symptom domains scores and total CA with exposure to five CA subtypes, respectively. The associations between CA and psychopathology were analyzed in men and women separately and were subsequently compared. RESULTS: Total CA was associated with total SCL-90 and all symptom domains without significant gender differences. However, the analyses of CA subtypes showed that the association between emotional abuse and total SCL-90 was stronger in women compared to men [χ2(1) = 4.10, P = 0.043]. Sexual abuse was significantly associated with total SCL-90 in women, but emotional neglect and physical neglect were associated with total SCL-90 in men. Exploratory analyses of CA subtypes and SCL-90 subdomains confirmed the pattern of gender-specific associations. In women, emotional abuse was associated with all symptom domains, and sexual abuse was associated with all except phobic anxiety and interpersonal sensitivity. In men, emotional neglect was associated with depression, and physical neglect was associated with phobic anxiety, anxiety, interpersonal sensitivity, obsessive-compulsive, paranoid ideation, and hostility subdomains. CONCLUSION: CA is a trans-syndromal risk factor regardless of gender. However, differential associations between CA subtypes and symptom manifestation might exist. Abuse might be particularly associated with psychopathology in women, whereas neglect might be associated with psychopathology in men.

Coping and sleep quality in youth: An Experience Sampling study.

INTRODUCTION: Sleep quality is closely linked with mental health. Two factors that influence sleep are coping style and locus of control, yet these have not been investigated in daily life. In this study, we examined associations between coping styles and sleep quality in daily life and the potential mediating effect of daily locus of control in a sample of youth, a group particularly vulnerable to developing psychopathology. METHODS: Three hundred and seventy-nine youths from the TwinssCan study participated in an Experience Sampling study, assessing sleep quality as well as state locus of control over the most negative event from the previous day. Participants also completed the Utrecht Coping List, which assessed engagement, disengagement, and emotion-focused coping. RESULTS: Disengagement, "passive reaction," and emotion-focused coping were associated with lower daily sleep quality. State locus of control did not mediate any effects of coping styles on quality of sleep. CONCLUSIONS: Disengagement, "passive reaction," and emotion-focused coping were associated with decreased sleep quality during several consecutive days, which may put youths at risk for developing future insomnia, and strain their mental well-being over time. Thus, there may be value in asking about coping when a young individual presents with sleep problems; however, impaired coping when sleeping poorly should also be considered.

Educational attainment of same-sex and opposite-sex dizygotic twins: An individual-level pooled study of 19 twin cohorts.

Comparing twins from same- and opposite-sex pairs can provide information on potential sex differences in a variety of outcomes, including socioeconomic-related outcomes such as educational attainment. It has been suggested that this design can be applied to examine the putative role of intrauterine exposure to testosterone for educational attainment, but the evidence is still disputed. Thus, we established an international database of twin data from 11 countries with 88,290 individual dizygotic twins born over 100 years and tested for differences between twins from same- and opposite-sex dizygotic pairs in educational attainment. Effect sizes with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by linear regression models after adjusting for birth year and twin study cohort. In contrast to the hypothesis, no difference was found in women (ß = -0.05 educational years, 95% CI -0.11, 0.02). However, men with a same-sex co-twin were slightly more educated than men having an opposite-sex co-twin (ß = 0.14 educational years, 95% CI 0.07, 0.21). No consistent differences in effect sizes were found between individual twin study cohorts representing Europe, the USA, and Australia or over the cohorts born during the 20th century, during which period the sex differences in education reversed favoring women in the latest birth cohorts. Further, no interaction was found with maternal or paternal education. Our results contradict the hypothesis that there would be differences in the intrauterine testosterone levels between same-sex and opposite-sex female twins affecting education. Our findings in men may point to social dynamics within same-sex twin pairs that may benefit men in their educational careers.

Residential green space and child intelligence and behavior across urban, suburban, and rural areas in Belgium: A longitudinal birth cohort study of twins.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to green space has beneficial effects on several cognitive and behavioral aspects. However, to our knowledge, no study addressed intelligence as outcome. We investigated whether the level of urbanicity can modify the association of residential green space with intelligence and behavior in children. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This study includes 620 children and is part of the East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS), a registry of multiple births in the province of East Flanders, Belgium. Intelligence was assessed with the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Revised (WISC-R) in 620 children (310 twin pairs) between 7 and 15 years old. From a subset of 442 children, behavior was determined based on the Achenbach Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL). Prenatal and childhood residential addresses were geocoded and used to assign green space indicators. Mixed modeling was performed to investigate green space in association with intelligence and behavior while adjusting for potential confounding factors including sex, age, parental education, neighborhood household income, year of assessment, and zygosity and chorionicity. We found that residential green space in association with both intelligence and behavior in children was modified by the degree of urbanicity (p < 0.001). In children living in an urban environment, multivariable adjusted mixed modeling analysis revealed that an IQR increment of residential green space (3,000-m radius) was associated with a 2.6 points (95% CI 1.4-3.9; p < 0.001) higher total intelligence quotient (IQ) and 2.0 points (95% CI -3.5 to -0.4; p = 0.017) lower externalizing behavioral score. In children residing in a rural or suburban environment, no association was found. A limitation of this study is that no information was available on school location and the potential for unmeasured confounding (e.g., time spend outdoors). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that residential green space may be beneficial for the intellectual and the behavioral development of children living in urban areas. These findings are relevant for policy makers and urban planners to create an optimal environment for children to develop their full potential.

Measuring resilience prospectively as the speed of affect recovery in daily life: a complex systems perspective on mental health.

INTRODUCTION: There is growing evidence that mental disorders behave like complex dynamic systems. Complex dynamic systems theory states that a slower recovery from small perturbations indicates a loss of resilience of a system. This study is the first to test whether the speed of recovery of affect states from small daily life perturbations predicts changes in psychopathological symptoms over 1 year in a group of adolescents at increased risk for mental disorders. METHODS: We used data from 157 adolescents from the TWINSSCAN study. Course of psychopathology was operationalized as the 1-year change in the Symptom Checklist-90 sum score. Two groups were defined: one with stable and one with increasing symptom levels. Time-series data on momentary daily affect and daily unpleasant events were collected 10 times a day for 6 days at baseline. We modeled the time-lagged effect of daily unpleasant events on negative and positive affect after each unpleasant event experienced, to examine at which time point the impact of the events is no longer detectable. RESULTS: There was a significant difference between groups in the effect of unpleasant events on negative affect 90 min after the events were reported. Stratified by group, in the Increase group, the effect of unpleasant events on both negative (B = 0.05, p < 0.01) and positive affect (B = - 0. 08, p < 0.01) was still detectable 90 min after the events, whereas in the Stable group this was not the case. CONCLUSION: Findings cautiously suggest that adolescents who develop more symptoms in the following year may display a slower affect recovery from daily perturbations at baseline. This supports the notion that mental health may behave according to the laws of a complex dynamic system. Future research needs to examine whether these dynamic indicators of system resilience may prove valuable for personalized risk assessment in this field.

Early warning signals in psychopathology: what do they tell?

BACKGROUND: Despite the increasing understanding of factors that might underlie psychiatric disorders, prospectively detecting shifts from a healthy towards a symptomatic state has remained unattainable. A complex systems perspective on psychopathology implies that such symptom shifts may be foreseen by generic indicators of instability, or early warning signals (EWS). EWS include, for instance, increasing variability, covariance, and autocorrelation in momentary affective states-of which the latter was studied. The present study investigated if EWS predict (i) future worsening of symptoms as well as (ii) the type of symptoms that will develop, meaning that the association between EWS and future symptom shifts would be most pronounced for congruent affective states and psychopathological domains (e.g., feeling down and depression). METHODS: A registered general population cohort of adolescents (mean age 18 years, 36% male) provided ten daily ratings of their affective states for 6 consecutive days. The resulting time series were used to compute EWS in feeling down, listless, anxious, not relaxed, insecure, suspicious, and unwell. At baseline and 1-year follow-up, symptom severity was assessed by the Symptom Checklist-90 (SCL-90). We selected four subsamples of participants who reported an increase in one of the following SCL-90 domains: depression (N = 180), anxiety (N = 192), interpersonal sensitivity (N = 184), or somatic complaints (N = 166). RESULTS: Multilevel models showed that EWS in feeling suspicious anticipated increases in interpersonal sensitivity, as hypothesized. EWS were absent for other domains. While the association between EWS and symptom increases was restricted to the interpersonal sensitivity domain, post hoc analyses showed that symptom severity at baseline was related to heightened autocorrelations in congruent affective states for interpersonal sensitivity, depression, and anxiety. This pattern replicated in a second, independent dataset. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of EWS prior to symptom shifts may depend on the dynamics of the psychopathological domain under consideration: for depression, EWS may manifest only several weeks prior to a shift, while for interpersonal sensitivity, EWS may already occur 1 year in advance. Intensive longitudinal designs where EWS and symptoms are assessed in real-time are required in order to determine at what timescale and for what type of domain EWS are most informative of future psychopathology.

Placental mitochondrial DNA content is associated with childhood intelligence.

BACKGROUND: Developmental processes in the placenta and the fetal brain are shaped by the similar biological signals. Evidence accumulates that adaptive responses of the placenta may influence central nervous system development. We hypothesize that placental mtDNA content at birth is associated with intelligence in childhood. In addition, we investigate if intra-pair differences in mtDNA content are associated with intra-pair differences in intelligence. METHODS: Relative mtDNA content was measured using qPCR in placental tissue of 375 children of the East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey. Intelligence was assessed with the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Revised (WISC-R) between 8 and 15 years old. We accounted for sex, gestational age, birth weight, birth year, zygosity and chorionicity, cord insertion, age at measurement, indicators of socioeconomic status, smoking during pregnancy, and urban environment. RESULTS: In multivariable adjusted mixed modelling analysis, each doubling in placental mtDNA content was associated with 2.0 points (95% CI 0.02 to 3.9; p = 0.05) higher total and 2.3 points (95% CI 0.2 to 4.3; p = 0.03) higher performance IQ in childhood. We observed no association between mtDNA content and verbal intelligence. Intra-pair differences in mtDNA content and IQ were significantly (p = 0.01) correlated in monozygotic-monochorionic twin pairs, showing that the twin with the highest mtDNA content was 1.9 times more likely (p = 0.05) to have the highest IQ. This was not observed in dichorionic twin pairs. CONCLUSIONS: We provide the first evidence that placental mtDNA content is associated with childhood intelligence. This emphasizes the importance of placental mitochondrial function during in utero life on fetal brain development with long-lasting consequences.