Prediction Models of Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis in Adults: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) varies in severity, prompting development of systems aimed at predicting prognosis to help guide therapy. Although several prediction approaches are available, their test characteristics and clinical utility are not completely understood. PURPOSE: To evaluate the test characteristics (prognostic accuracy, incremental predictive value) and clinical utility (effect on patient outcomes) of severity scores for predicting mortality in AP. DATA SOURCES: Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE (inception to 3 May 2016). STUDY SELECTION: Longitudinal studies, in any language, that evaluated the prognostic value of at least 1 clinical severity score in AP. DATA EXTRACTION: Dual data extraction and quality assessment. DATA SYNTHESIS: Of 4039 citations screened, 94 unique studies evaluating 18 scores in 53 547 patients met the inclusion criteria. All studies provided data on prognostic accuracy, whereas 6 provided data on incremental predictive values. Most scores demonstrated low prognostic accuracy. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and the Ranson criteria were studied most extensively. The median sensitivity and specificity of APACHE II at a threshold of 7 were 100% (range, 68% to 100%) and 63% (range, 21% to 96%), respectively, and those of the Ranson criteria at a threshold of 2 were 90% (range, 0% to 100%) and 67% (range, 14% to 97%), respectively. Estimates of sensitivity were based on relatively few patients. Evidence was limited regarding the incremental predictive value of the scoring systems or their effect on patient outcomes. LIMITATION: Substantial clinical heterogeneity and inadequate methodological and reporting quality precluded a meta-analysis. CONCLUSION: The test characteristics and clinical utility of AP severity scores remain uncertain. Additional studies with improved methodological rigor are needed, and the development of new scoring systems may be justified. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Global Scholarship Programme for Research Excellence for 2014 to 2015, The Chinese University of Hong Kong.

An internet-based epidemiological investigation of the outbreak of H7N9 Avian influenza A in China since early 2013.

BACKGROUND: In early 2013, a new type of avian influenza, H7N9, emerged in China. It quickly became an issue of great public concern and a widely discussed topic on the Internet. A considerable volume of relevant information was made publicly available on the Internet through various sources. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe the outbreak of H7N9 in China based on data openly available on the Internet and to validate our investigation by comparing our findings with a well-conducted conventional field epidemiologic study. METHODS: We searched publicly accessible Internet data on the H7N9 outbreak primarily from government and major mass media websites in China up to February 10, 2014. Two researchers independently extracted, compared, and confirmed the information of each confirmed H7N9 case using a self-designed data extraction form. We summarized the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of confirmed H7N9 cases and compared them with those from the field study. RESULTS: According to our data updated until February 10, 2014, 334 confirmed H7N9 cases were identified. The median age was 58 years and 67.0% (219/327) were males. Cases were reported in 15 regions in China. Five family clusters were found. Of the 16.8% (56/334) of the cases with relevant data, 69.6% (39/56) reported a history of exposure to animals. Of the 1751 persons with a close contact with a confirmed case, 0.6% (11/1751) of them developed respiratory symptoms during the 7-day surveillance period. In the 97.9% (327/334) of the cases with relevant data, 21.7% (71/327) died, 20.8% (68/327) were discharged from a hospital, and 57.5% (188/327) were of uncertain status. We compared our findings before February 10, 2014 and those before December 1, 2013 with those from the conventional field study, which had the latter cutoff date of ours in data collection. Our study showed most epidemiological and clinical characteristics were similar to those in the field study, except for case fatality (71/327, 21.7% for our data before February 10; 45/138, 32.6% for our data before December 1; 47/139, 33.8% for the field study), time from illness onset to first medical care (4 days, 3 days, and 1 day), and time from illness onset to death (16.5 days, 17 days, and 21 days). CONCLUSIONS: Findings from our Internet-based investigation were similar to those from the conventional field study in most epidemiological and clinical aspects of the outbreak. Importantly, publicly available Internet data are open to any interested researchers and can thus greatly facilitate the investigation and control of such outbreaks. With improved efforts for Internet data provision, Internet-based investigation has a great potential to become a quick, economical, novel approach to investigating sudden issues of great public concern that involve a relatively small number of cases like this H7N9 outbreak.

Promising biomarkers for predicting the outcomes of patients with KRAS wild-type metastatic colorectal cancer treated with anti-epidermal growth factor receptor monoclonal antibodies: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

KRAS mutations have been established as a major predictive biomarker for resistance to the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) with anti-epidermal growth factor receptor monoclonal antibodies (anti-EGFR MoAbs). However, many patients with KRAS wild-type tumors still do not respond to the treatment. We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to assess whether BRAF mutations, PIK3CA mutations and PTEN loss can predict the outcomes of patients with KRAS wild-type mCRC treated with anti-EGFR MoAbs. Studies that explored the association of one or more of the three biomarkers with progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS) and/or objective response rate (ORR) were identified through August 2012. Summary hazard ratios (HRs) and rate differences (RDs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by using the random-effects model. BRAF mutations, PIK3CA exon 20 mutations and PTEN loss were all associated with shorter PFS (HR = 2.59, 95% CI 1.67-4.03; HR = 2.52, 95% CI 1.33-4.78 and HR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.19-2.56, respectively), shorter OS (HR = 2.74, 95% CI 1.79-4.19; HR = 3.29, 95% CI 1.60-6.75 and HR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.30-2.64, respectively) and lower ORR (RD = -36%, 95% CI -44 to -28%; RD = -38%, 95% CI -51 to -24% and RD = -41%, 95% CI -68 to -14%, respectively). PIK3CA exon 9 mutations were associated with none of the outcomes. Studies with relevant data consistently demonstrated a stronger predictive power of combined multiple biomarkers as compared to one alteration alone. These results suggest that BRAF mutations, PIK3CA exon 20 mutations and PTEN loss are predictive of worseoutcomes in KRAS wild-type mCRC treated with anti-EGFR MoAbs [corrected]. However, the quality of included studies varied, and some of the meta-analyses were limited by significant between-study heterogeneity. In the future, well-designed large randomized controlled trials conducted in KRAS wild-type mCRC patients with subgroup analysis according to BRAF, PIK3CA exon 20 and PTEN status are essential to fully assess the clinical relevance of these biomarkers.

Clinical and Second-look Arthroscopic Results for Derotational Distal Femoral Osteotomy With Medial Patellofemoral Ligament Reconstruction for Recurrent Patellar Dislocation With Increased Femoral Anteversion: A Series of 102 Cases With a Minimum Clinical Follow-up of 2 Years.

BACKGROUND: Derotational distal femoral osteotomy (DDFO) has been used to treat patients with recurrent patellar dislocation (RPD) with increased femoral anteversion. However, no study has reported second-look arthroscopic findings in the patellofemoral joint after DDFO. PURPOSE: To report clinical and second-look arthroscopic outcomes for DDFO with combined medial patellofemoral ligament reconstruction (MPFL-R) in treating RPD with increased femoral anteversion. STUDY DESIGN: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. METHODS: From 2015 to 2019, 131 consecutive patients (144 knees) with RPD were treated with combined MPFL-R and DDFO. Patients with a femoral anteversion angle >30° and a minimum 2-year clinical follow-up period were included in the study. Three-dimensional computed tomography was performed to evaluate rotational deformities of the lower leg. Radiographic parameters presenting bony abnormalities associated with RPD were measured. Second-look arthroscopic evaluations were available for 86 knees to assess patellar tracking and chondral lesion changes. Moreover, clinical and radiologic outcomes were assessed pre- and postoperatively at a minimum 2 years. RESULTS: A total of 102 knees in 92 patients were included in the present study with a mean clinical follow-up of 4.1 years (range, 2.0-5.6 years). Mean ± SD femoral anteversion changed significantly from 34.7°± 7.5° preoperatively to 11.3°± 0.2° postoperatively (P < .001), and mean tibial tubercle-trochlear groove distance decreased significantly from 19.6 ± 3.5 mm preoperatively to 17.4 ± 3.2 mm postoperatively (P < .001). In the majority of knees, at the time of second-look arthroscopic assessment, chondral lesion status remained unchanged at the lateral patellar facet (96%) and trochlear groove (95%); in contrast, chondral damage at the medial patellar facet was aggravated in 9 cases (10%). All functional scores (Tegner, Lysholm, visual analog scale, and Kujala scores) improved significantly at final follow-up. None of the patients experienced redislocation or subluxation after surgery. CONCLUSION: Chondral lesions in the patellofemoral joint remained unchanged in the majority of cases in second-look arthroscopy after combined MPFL-R and DDFO. Moreover, high-grade trochlear dysplasia and arthroscopic residual patellar maltracking might be associated with cartilaginous deterioration at the medial patellar facet after surgery.

Exploration on surgical-related factors influencing HCC patients prognosis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To evaluate the prognostic value of surgical operation-related factors in patients with primary liver cancer (PLC). METHODOLOGY: A retrospective study was carried out analyzing the data of 114 patients with PLC undergoing hepatic resection from January 2002 to December 2009. Survival rates were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank tests were employed to compare the survival rates observed in those patients with surgical operation-related factors (e.g. operation method, time, portal blockage, complications, resection margin, amount of intraoperative blood loss and amount of blood transfusion), and bivariate correlation analysis was used to examine the associations of these surgical operation-related factors. RESULTS: Intraoperative blood loss, amount of blood transfusion and operation time were significant predictors for patients with PLC after hepatic resection (p<0.05). The operation method, resection margin, portal blockage and complications (e.g. intra-abdominal infections, intra-abdominal hemorrhage, gastro-intestinal hemorrhage, biliary leakage, etc.) were not significant prognostic factors (p>0.05). There was a positive correlation between intraoperative blood loss, amount of blood transfusion, portal blockage time and operation time, in addition, a negative correlation was found between resection margin and the operation method. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatic surgery can improve the patients prognosis if the operation time is shortened, and the amount of intraoperative blood transfusion and blood loss lessened.

Theoretical investigation on the low-lying electronic states of diatomic magnesium bismuthide including the spin-orbit coupling effect.

High-level ab initio computations have been performed to investigate molecular structures, potential energy curves, vibrational energy levels and spectroscopic constants for twelve Λ-S states of the first four dissociation limits of MgBi. Characterizations of seven Ω states, corresponding to the first and the second Λ-S dissociation limits, have been explored for the first time. The spin-orbit coupling effect is revealed to have introduced a significant impact on the pattern of these electronic states and interactions among them. Our predictions for molecular structures and spectroscopic constants of MgBi are compared with available data of other magnesium-group 18 family species. Regular tendencies of these parameters are clearly exhibited when the group 18 atom is replaced by another one in the group. Information associated with transition dipole moments, Franck-Condon factors, vibrational branching ratios and radiative lifetimes between the Ω states are obtained and their transitional properties are analyzed and discussed. The results and data determined in this work are expected to guide and assist laboratorial detections of MgBi and to extend our understanding for the magnesium-group 18 species.

H3K27ac-activated LINC00519 promotes lung squamous cell carcinoma progression by targeting miR-450b-5p/miR-515-5p/YAP1 axis.

OBJECTIVES: Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are extensively reported as participants in the biological process of diverse malignancies, including lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC). Long intergenic non-protein coding RNA 519 (LINC00519) is identified as a novel lncRNA which has not yet been studied in cancers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: LINC00519 expression was detected by qRT-PCR. The effect of LINC00519 on LUSC cellular activities was determined by in vitro and in vivo assays. Subcellular fractionation and FISH assays were conducted to identify the localization of LINC00519. The interaction between miR-450b-5p/miR-515-5p and LINC00519/YAP1 was verified by RIP, RNA pull-down and luciferase reporter assays. RESULTS: Elevated level of LINC00519 was identified in LUSC tissues and cell lines. High LINC00519 level predicted unsatisfactory prognosis. Then, loss-of-function assays suggested the inhibitive role of silenced LINC00519 in cell proliferation, migration, invasion and tumour growth and promoting effect on cell apoptosis in LUSC. Mechanically, LINC00519 was activated by H3K27 acetylation (H3K27ac). Moreover, LINC00519 sponged miR-450b-5p and miR-515-5p to up-regulate Yes1 associated transcriptional regulator (YAP1). Additionally, miR-450b-5p and miR-515-5p elicited anti-carcinogenic effects in LUSC. Finally, rescue assays validated the effect of LINC00519-miR-450b-5p-miR-515-5p-YAP1 axis in LUSC. CONCLUSIONS: H3K27ac-activated LINC00519 acts as a competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) to promote LUSC progression by targeting miR-450b-5p/miR-515-5p/YAP1 axis.

Aberrant allelic-switch of antisense lncRNA IRAIN may be an early diagnostic marker in laryngeal cancer.

Laryngeal carcinoma is a common head and neck malignancy, however, the molecular mechanism of the disease has not yet been elucidated. The present study aimed to investigate the role of IGF1R antisense imprinted non-protein coding RNA (IRAIN) long non-coding (lnc)RNA in laryngeal carcinoma. In total, specimens of healthy pharynx tissue from 6 healthy individuals, carcinoma tissue and paracancerous tissue from 37 patients with laryngeal carcinoma were used in this study. The single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs8034564 was used to distinguish the two parental alleles of IRAIN. DNA and RNA were extracted from tissue specimens and the IRAIN allelic gene was sequenced. Reverse transcription-quantitative PCR was used to determine the expression levels of IRAIN and Insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor (IGF1R) in laryngeal carcinoma and paracancerous tissue. Bisulfite genomic sequencing was used to determine IRAIN promoter DNA methylation status in laryngeal carcinoma tissue. The expression of IRAIN was di-allelic in healthy pharynx tissue, laryngeal carcinoma tissue and paracancerous tissue. Moreover, IRAIN expression in laryngeal carcinoma tissue was lower compared with paracancerous tissue (P<0.05). IRAIN expression was not associated with age, histological type, tumor stage and grade and lymph node metastasis. IRAIN allelic expression imbalance was present in laryngeal carcinoma and paracancerous tissue, but not in healthy pharynx tissue. SNP analysis (rs8034564) indicated there was an allelic-switch of the two parental alleles. Furthermore, epigenetic analysis revealed no extensive DNA methylation of CpG islands in the IRAIN gene promoter of laryngeal carcinoma. Therefore, it was suggested that IRAIN allele was non-imprinted in laryngeal carcinoma and healthy pharynx tissue. It was also demonstrated that IRAIN may be a potential tumor suppressor in laryngeal carcinoma, and that DNA methylation is not involved in the regulation of IRAIN gene immobilization in laryngeal carcinoma tissue. Thus, detection of IRAIN allelic expression imbalance and aberrant allele-switch may serve as an early diagnostic marker of laryngeal carcinoma.

The prognostic value of phosphorylated Akt in breast cancer: a systematic review.

The prognostic value of phosphorylated Akt (pAkt) overexpression in breast cancer has been investigated by many studies with inconsistent results. This systematic review was conducted to evaluate the association of pAkt overexpression with breast cancer prognosis in terms of overall survival and disease-free survival. Three electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE and Chinese Biomedical Literature Database) were comprehensively searched. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from different studies were combined using the random-effects model. In total, 33 studies with 9,836 patients were included for final analysis. The summary HR for overall survival and disease-free survival was 1.52 (95% CI: 1.29-1.78) and 1.28 (95% CI: 1.13-1.45), respectively, indicating higher risk of death and disease recurrence associated with pAkt overexpression. The results were robust in sensitivity analyses by omitting one study each time and by using the fixed-effects model instead. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses did not show that the prognostic effect of pAkt overexpression would change materially with such factors as population, status of hormone receptors, hormonal or trastuzumab treatment given, analyzing method (univariate versus multivariate) and methodological quality of the original studies. In conclusion, the available evidence suggests that pAkt overexpression is an adverse prognostic factor for breast cancer.

How often does an individual trial agree with its corresponding meta-analysis? A meta-epidemiologic study.

OBJECTIVE: A meta-analysis may provide more conclusive results than a single trial. The major cost of meta-analysis is the time of waiting before the meta-analysis becomes available and resources spent on consequent trials that may not be necessary. The objective of this study is to address how often the result of a single trial, in particular the first trial, differs from that of its corresponding meta-analysis so as to reduce unnecessary waiting time and subsequent trials. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTINGS: A meta-epidemiologic study was conducted by collecting meta-analyses from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and five major medical journals. Effect size of a single trial was compared with that of its corresponding meta-analysis. The single trial includes the first trial, last trial and any trial randomly selected from the meta-analysis. RESULTS: 647 meta-analyses are included and the median number of trials in a meta-analysis is 5. 233 (36.0%) meta-analyses have the first trial with a statistically significant result. When the first trial is statistically significant, 84.1% (95% CI: 79.4%, 88.8%) of the corresponding meta-analyses is both in the same direction and statistically significant. When the first trial is statistically insignificant, 57.9% (95% CI: 53.2%, 62.8%) of the meta-analysis is also statistically insignificant regardless of direction. The median number of years is 6.5 years from the first to the 5th trial. CONCLUSION: The conclusion of the first trial that the treatment is effective or harmful is mostly likely correct. A statistically significant trial agrees more often with its corresponding meta-analysis than a large trial. These findings imply that particularly in some urgent, life-saving or other critical circumstances for which no other effective methods are available, cautious recommendation based on the significant result of the first trial seems justifiable and could start use of an effective intervention by 5-8 years earlier.

Numerical simulation of airflow fields in two typical nasal structures of empty nose syndrome: a computational fluid dynamics study.

BACKGROUND: The pathogenesis of empty nose syndrome (ENS) has not been elucidated so far. Though postulated, there remains a lack of experimental evidence about the roles of nasal aerodynamics on the development of ENS. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the nasal aerodynamic features of ENS andto explore the role of aerodynamic changes on the pathogenesis of ENS. METHODS: Seven sinonasal models were numerically constructed, based on the high resolution computed tomography images of seven healthy male adults. Bilateral radical inferior/middle turbinectomy were numerically performed to mimic the typical nasal structures of ENS-inferior turbinate (ENS-IT) and ENS-middle turbinate (ENS-MT). A steady laminar model was applied in calculation. Velocity, pressure, streamlines, air flux and wall shear stress were numerically investigated. Each parameter of normal structures was compared with those of the corresponding pathological models of ENS-IT and ENS-MT, respectively. RESULTS: ENS-MT: Streamlines, air flux distribution, and wall shear stress distribution were generally similar to those of the normal structures; nasal resistances decreased. Velocities decreased locally, while increased around the sphenopalatine ganglion by 0.20 ± 0.17 m/s and 0.22 ± 0.10 m/s during inspiration and expiration, respectively. ENS-IT: Streamlines were less organized with new vortexes shown near the bottom wall. The airflow rates passing through the nasal olfactory area decreased by 26.27% ± 8.68% and 13.18% ± 7.59% during inspiration and expiration, respectively. Wall shear stresses, nasal resistances and local velocities all decreased. CONCLUSION: Our CFD simulation study suggests that the changes in nasal aerodynamics may play an essential role in the pathogenesis of ENS. An increased velocity around the sphenopalatine ganglion in the ENS-MT models could be responsible for headache in patients with ENS-MT. However, these results need to be validated in further studies with a larger sample size and more complicated calculating models.

Gemcitabine plus erlotinib for advanced pancreatic cancer: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to comprehensively summarize the currently available evidences on the efficacy and safety of gemcitabine plus erlotinib for treating advanced pancreatic cancer. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: PubMed, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library and abstracts of recent major conferences were systematically searched to identify relevant publications. Studies that were conducted in advanced pancreatic cancer patients treated with gemcitabine plus erlotinib (with or without comparison with gemcitabine alone) and reporting objective response rate, disease control rate, progression-free survival, time-to-progression, overall survival, 1-year survival rate and/or adverse events were included. Data on objective response rate, disease control rate, 1-year survival rate and adverse events rate, respectively, were combined mainly by using Meta-Analyst software with a random-effects model. Data on progression-free survival, time-to-progression and overall survival were summarized descriptively. Sixteen studies containing 1,308 advanced pancreatic cancer patients treated with gemcitabine plus erlotinib were included. The reported median progression-free survival (or time-to-progression), median overall survival, 1-year survival rates, objective response rates and disease control rates were 2-9.6 months, 5-12.5 months, 20%-51%, 0%-28.6% and 25.0%-83.3%, respectively. The weighted 1-year survival rate, objective response rate and disease control rate based on studies reporting robust results were 27.9%, 9.1% and 57.0%, respectively. According to the studies with relevant data, the incidences of total and severe adverse events were 96.3% and 62.9%, respectively. The most frequently reported adverse events were leucopenia, rash, diarrhea, vomitting, neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, anaemia, stomatitis, drug-induced liver injury, fatigue and fever. Compared with gemcitabine alone, the progression-free survival and overall survival with gemcitabine plus erlotinib were significantly longer, but there were also more deaths and interstitial lung disease-like syndrome related to this treatment. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Gemcitabine plus erlotinib represent a new option for the treatment of advanced pancreatic cancer, with mild but clinically meaningful additive efficacy compared with gemcitabine alone. Its safety profile is generally acceptable, although careful management is needed for some specific adverse events.