Generalized mean residual life models for survival data with missing censoring indicators.

The mean residual life (MRL) function is an important and attractive alternative to the hazard function for characterizing the distribution of a time-to-event variable. In this article, we study the modeling and inference of a family of generalized MRL models for right-censored survival data with censoring indicators missing at random. To estimate the model parameters, augmented inverse probability weighted estimating equation approaches are developed, in which the non-missingness probability and the conditional probability of an uncensored observation are estimated by parametric methods or nonparametric kernel smoothing techniques. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established and finite sample performance is evaluated by extensive simulation studies. An application to brain cancer data is presented to illustrate the proposed methods.

Early-life Farm Exposure and Ovarian Reserve in a US Cohort of Women.

BACKGROUND: In a previous exploratory study, we reported lower concentrations of the ovarian reserve biomarker anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) in adulthood with prenatal farm exposure. We now examine this association as well as childhood farm exposure using enrollment data from the Sister Study, a large US cohort of women. METHODS: We collected prenatal and childhood farm exposure data by questionnaire and telephone interview. However, serum AMH data were available only for a nested subset: premenopausal women ages 35-54 subsequently diagnosed with breast cancer (n = 418 cases) and their matched controls (n = 866). To avoid potential bias from restricting analyses to only premenopausal controls, we leveraged the available cohort data. We used data from both premenopausal cases and controls as well as postmenopausal women ages 35-54 (n = 3,526) (all presumed to have undetectable AMH concentrations) and applied weights to produce a sample representative of the cohort ages 35-54 (n = 17,799). The high proportion of undetectable AMH concentrations (41%) was addressed using reverse-scale Cox regression. An adjusted hazard ratio (HR) <1.0 indicates that exposed individuals had lower AMH concentrations than unexposed individuals. RESULTS: Prenatal exposure to maternal residence or work on a farm was associated with lower AMH concentrations (HR 0.66; 95% confidence intervals [CI] = 0.48 to 0.90). Associations between childhood farm residence exposures and AMH were null or weak, except childhood contact with pesticide-treated livestock or buildings (HR 0.69; 95% CI = 0.40 to 1.2). CONCLUSIONS: Replication of the prenatal farm exposure and lower adult AMH association raises concern that aspects of prenatal farm exposure may result in reduced adult ovarian reserve.

Prescription medication use and antinuclear antibodies in the United States, 1999-2004.

BACKGROUND: Clinical reports link specific medications with the development of antinuclear antibodies (ANA), but population-based evidence is limited. OBJECTIVE: The present study investigated associations between prescription medication use and ANA in a representative sample of the adult noninstitutionalized US population, first focusing on medications previously related to ANA and then considering all medications reported in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). METHODS: Based on NHANES data (1999-2004) for 3608 adults (ages ≥18 years), we estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess associations between recent medication use and ANA (overall and in sex and age subgroups), adjusted for potential confounders and the survey sampling design. RESULTS: We found no evidence that most medications previously associated with ANA in specific individuals were risk factors for ANA in the general population, although statistical power was limited for some medications. Overall, ANA were less prevalent in adults who recently used any prescription medications compared with those who did not (OR = 0.73; CI = 0.57,0.93), and likewise several classes of medications were inversely associated with ANA, including hormones (OR = 0.73; CI = 0.55,0.98), thiazide diuretics (OR = 0.43; CI = 0.24,0.79), sulfonylureas (OR = 0.41; CI = 0.19,0.89), and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor antidepressants (OR = 0.65; CI = 0.42,0.98). Positive associations with ANA were seen for loop diuretics (OR = 1.72; CI = 1.03,2.88) in all adults, and for benzodiazepines (OR = 2.11; CI = 1.09,4.10) and bronchodilators (OR = 1.83; CI = 1.00,3.38) in older (ages ≥60) adults. Estrogens were positively associated with ANA in older women (OR = 1.80; CI = 1.00,3.23) but inversely associated with ANA in younger (ages 18-59) women (OR = 0.43; CI = 0.20,0.93). Regarding individual medications, ANA were positively associated with ciprofloxacin (OR = 4.23; CI = 1.21,14.8), furosemide (OR = 1.79; CI = 1.09,2.93), and omeprazole (OR = 2.05; CI = 1.03,4.10) in all adults, and with salmeterol (OR = 3.76; CI = 1.66,8.52), tolterodine (OR = 6.64; CI = 1.45,30.5), and triamterene (OR = 3.10; CI = 1.08,8.88) in older adults. Also, in younger adults, hydrochlorothiazide was inversely associated with ANA (OR = 0.44; CI = 0.20,0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings in the general population do not confirm most clinically reported positive associations between specific medications and ANA in some individuals. However, novel positive ANA associations with other medications, as well as unexplained inverse associations with certain classes of medications and overall medication use, deserve further research to clarify the possible roles of medications as risk and protective factors in the development of autoantibodies and autoimmune disease.

Accommodating measurements below a limit of detection: a novel application of Cox regression.

In environmental epidemiology, measurements of exposure biomarkers often fall below the assay's limit of detection. Existing methods for handling this problem, including deletion, substitution, parametric regression, and multiple imputation, can perform poorly if the proportion of "nondetects" is high or parametric models are mis-specified. We propose an approach that treats the measured analyte as the modeled outcome, implying a role reversal when the analyte is a putative cause of a health outcome. Following a scale reversal as well, our approach uses Cox regression to model the analyte, with confounder adjustment. The method makes full use of quantifiable analyte measures, while appropriately treating nondetects as censored. Under the proportional hazards assumption, the hazard ratio for a binary health outcome is interpretable as an adjusted odds ratio: the odds for the outcome at any particular analyte concentration divided by the odds given a lower concentration. Our approach is broadly applicable to cohort studies, case-control studies (frequency matched or not), and cross-sectional studies conducted to identify determinants of exposure. We illustrate the method with cross-sectional survey data to assess sex as a determinant of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin concentration and with prospective cohort data to assess the association between 2,4,4'-trichlorobiphenyl exposure and psychomotor development.

Scientific retractions and corrections related to misconduct findings.

We examined all 208 closed cases involving official findings of research misconduct published by the US Office of Research Integrity from 1992 to 2011 to determine how often scientists mention in a retraction or correction notice that there was an ethical problem with an associated article. 75 of these cases cited at least one published article affected by misconduct for a total of 174 articles. For 127 of these 174, we found both the article and a retraction or correction statement. Since eight of the 127 published statements consisted of simply the word 'retracted,' our analysis focused on the remaining 119 for which a more detailed retraction or correction was published. Of these 119 statements, only 41.2% mentioned ethics at all (and only 32.8% named a specific ethical problem such as fabrication, falsification or plagiarism), whereas the other 58.8% described the reason for retraction or correction as error, loss of data or replication failure when misconduct was actually at issue. Among the published statements in response to an official finding of misconduct (within the time frame studied), the proportion that mentioned ethics was significantly higher in recent years than in earlier years, as was the proportion that named a specific problem. To promote research integrity, scientific journals should consider adopting policies concerning retractions and corrections similar to the guidelines developed by the Committee on Publication Ethics. Funding agencies and institutions should take steps to ensure that articles affected by misconduct are retracted or corrected.

Anti-dense fine speckled 70 (DFS70) autoantibodies: correlates and increasing prevalence in the United States.

Objective: Recent studies report high-titer anti-dense fine speckled 70 (DFS70) autoantibodies in persons with inflammatory conditions, but the clinical significance remains unclear. Our goals were to estimate anti-DFS70 autoantibody prevalence, identify correlates, and assess time trends. Methods: Serum antinuclear antibodies (ANA) were measured by indirect immunofluorescence assay on HEp-2 cells in 13,519 participants ≥12 years old from three time periods (1988-1991, 1999-2004, 2011-2012) of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. ANA-positive participants with dense fine speckled staining were evaluated for anti-DFS70 antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. We used logistic models adjusted for survey-design variables to estimate period-specific anti-DFS70 antibody prevalence in the US, and we further adjusted for sex, age, and race/ethnicity to identify correlates and assess time trends. Results: Women were more likely than men (odds ratio (OR)=2.97), black persons were less likely than white persons (OR=0.60), and active smokers were less likely than nonsmokers (OR=0.28) to have anti-DFS70 antibodies. The prevalence of anti-DFS70 antibodies increased from 1.6% in 1988-1991 to 2.5% in 1999-2004 to 4.0% in 2011-2012, which corresponds to 3.2 million, 5.8 million, and 10.4 million seropositive individuals, respectively. This increasing time trend in the US population (P<0.0001) was modified in some subgroups and was not explained by concurrent changes in tobacco smoke exposure. Some, but not all, anti-DFS70 antibody correlates and time trends resembled those reported for total ANA. Conclusion: More research is needed to elucidate anti-DFS70 antibody triggers, their pathologic or potentially protective influences on disease, and their possible clinical implications.

Hazard Function Estimation with Cause-of-Death Data Missing at Random.

Hazard function estimation is an important part of survival analysis. Interest often centers on estimating the hazard function associated with a particular cause of death. We propose three nonparametric kernel estimators for the hazard function, all of which are appropriate when death times are subject to random censorship and censoring indicators can be missing at random. Specifically, we present a regression surrogate estimator, an imputation estimator, and an inverse probability weighted estimator. All three estimators are uniformly strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. We derive asymptotic representations of the mean squared error and the mean integrated squared error for these estimators and we discuss a data-driven bandwidth selection method. A simulation study, conducted to assess finite sample behavior, demonstrates that the proposed hazard estimators perform relatively well. We illustrate our methods with an analysis of some vascular disease data.

Hygiene Hypothesis Indicators and Prevalence of Antinuclear Antibodies in US Adolescents.

Autoimmunity prevalence, as measured by antinuclear antibodies (ANA), is increasing in U.S. adolescents. Improved hygiene and cleaner environments in childhood may reduce exposure to infections and other immune challenges, resulting in improper immune responses to later-life exposures. We examined associations of hygiene hypothesis indicators, including asthma, allergies, and antibodies to infectious agents, with ANA prevalence, measured by HEp-2 immunofluorescence, in adolescents (aged 12-19 years) over a 25-year time span in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (N=2,709), adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, education and survey cycle, overall and within individual time periods, using logistic regression. Prevalence of ANA in adolescents increased from 5.0% in 1988-1991 to 12.8% in 2011-2012. ANA were positively associated with diagnosis of asthma in early childhood (OR: 2.07, CI: 1.09-3.99) and the effect estimate for current hay fever was elevated but not statistically significant (OR: 1.55, CI: 0.85-2.84). Fewer than 2% of those with ANA in 1988-1991 had been diagnosed with asthma, compared with 18% in 1999-2000, and 27% in 2003-2004 and 2011-2012. ANA trended negatively with Helicobacter pylori antibodies (OR: 0.49, CI: 0.24-0.99). ANA may be useful as an additional indicator of inadequate immune education in adolescence, a critical period of growth and development.

Expanded assessment of xenobiotic associations with antinuclear antibodies in the United States, 1988-2012.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of autoimmunity in the U.S. has increased recently for undetermined reasons. Little is known about associations between autoimmunity and environmental causes. OBJECTIVES: In a large representative sample of the U.S. population, we expanded our prior exploratory study of how exposures to selected xenobiotics and dioxin-like (DL) mixtures relate to antinuclear antibodies (ANA), the most common biomarker of autoimmunity. METHODS: We analyzed cross-sectional data on 12,058 participants aged ≥ 12 years from three time periods of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 1988 and 2012, of whom 14% were ANA-positive. We used lognormal regression models and censored-data methods to estimate ANA associations with xenobiotic concentrations overall and in sex, age, and race/ethnicity subgroups. Our analyses adjusted for potential confounders and appropriately handled concentrations below detection limits. RESULTS: Observed ANA associations were positive for most DL compounds and nonDL polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), negative for most phthalates, and mixed for other xenobiotic classes. After correcting for multiple comparisons, some associations remained statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, the most significant finding was a positive ANA association with N-acetyl-S-(2-hydroxy-3-butenyl)-L-cysteine (MHB2) in males, followed by positive associations with 2,2',3,5'-tetrachlorobiphenyl (PCB 44), 2,2',4,5'-tetrachlorobiphenyl (PCB 49), and 2,2',3,4',5',6-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB 149) in 12-19 year-olds, and with 3,4,4',5-tetrachlorobiphenyl (PCB 81), 2,2',3,3',4,4',5,5',6-nonachlorobiphenyl (PCB 206), and N-acetyl-S-(phenyl)-L-cysteine (PMA) in Mexican Americans. Negative associations were found with mono-benzyl phthalate (MBzP) in 20-49 year-olds and mono-n-butyl phthalate (MnBP) in 12-19 year-olds. In overall analyses, combining stratum-specific results across race/ethnicity strata revealed a positive ANA association with PCB 81 and a negative ANA association with N-acetyl-S-(2-hydroxyethyl)-L-cysteine (HEMA). DISCUSSION: This study identified potential associations between ANA and various xenobiotics. Further investigation to confirm these observations and elucidate effects of certain xenobiotics on immune regulation could have important mechanistic, preventive, and treatment implications for a variety of immune-mediated disorders.

Increasing Prevalence of Antinuclear Antibodies in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: Growing evidence suggests increasing frequencies of autoimmunity and autoimmune diseases, but findings are limited by the lack of systematic data and evolving approaches and definitions. This study was undertaken to investigate whether the prevalence of antinuclear antibodies (ANA), the most common biomarker of autoimmunity, changed over a recent 25-year span in the US. METHODS: Serum ANA were measured by standard indirect immunofluorescence assays on HEp-2 cells in 13,519 participants age ≥12 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, with approximately one-third from each of 3 time periods: 1988-1991, 1999-2004, and 2011-2012. We used logistic regression adjusted for sex, age, race/ethnicity, and survey design variables to estimate changes in ANA prevalence across the time periods. RESULTS: The prevalence of ANA was 11.0% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 9.7-12.6%) in 1988-1991, 11.4% (95% CI 10.2-12.8%) in 1999-2004, and 16.1% (95% CI 14.4-18.0%) in 2011-2012 (P for trend <0.0001), corresponding to ~22.3 million, ~26.6 million, and ~41.5 million affected individuals, respectively. Among adolescents age 12-19 years, ANA prevalence increased substantially, with odds ratios of 2.07 (95% CI 1.18-3.64) and 2.77 (95% CI 1.56-4.91) in the second and third time periods relative to the first (P for trend = 0.0004). ANA prevalence increased in both sexes (especially in men), older adults (age ≥50 years), and non-Hispanic white individuals. These increases in ANA prevalence were not explained by concurrent trends in weight (obesity/overweight), smoking exposure, or alcohol consumption. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of ANA in the US has increased considerably in recent years. Additional studies to determine factors underlying these increases in ANA prevalence could elucidate causes of autoimmunity and enable the development of preventative measures.

Characterizing non-constant relative potency.

Relative potency plays an important role in toxicology. Estimates of relative potency are used to rank chemicals by their effects, to calculate equivalent doses of test chemicals compared to a standard, and to weight contributions of constituent chemicals when evaluating mixtures. Typically relative potency is characterized by a constant dilution factor, even when non-similar dose-response curves indicate that constancy is inappropriate. Improperly regarding relative potency as constant may distort conclusions and potentially mislead investigators or policymakers. We consider a more general approach that allows relative potency to vary as a function of dose, response, or response quantile. Distinct functions can be defined, each generalizing different but equivalent descriptions of constant relative potency. When two chemicals have identical response limits, these functions all carry fundamentally equivalent information; otherwise, relative potency as a function of response quantile is distinct and embodies a modified definition of relative potency. Which definition is preferable depends on whether one views any differences in response limits as intrinsic to the chemicals or as extrinsic, arising from idiosyncrasies of data sources. We illustrate these ideas with constructed examples and real data. Relative potency functions offer a unified and principled description of relative potency for non-similar dose-response curves.

Linear regression analysis of survival data with missing censoring indicators.

Linear regression analysis has been studied extensively in a random censorship setting, but typically all of the censoring indicators are assumed to be observed. In this paper, we develop synthetic data methods for estimating regression parameters in a linear model when some censoring indicators are missing. We define estimators based on regression calibration, imputation, and inverse probability weighting techniques, and we prove all three estimators are asymptotically normal. The finite-sample performance of each estimator is evaluated via simulation. We illustrate our methods by assessing the effects of sex and age on the time to non-ambulatory progression for patients in a brain cancer clinical trial.

Quantile regression models for survival data with missing censoring indicators.

The quantile regression model has increasingly become a useful approach for analyzing survival data due to its easy interpretation and flexibility in exploring the dynamic relationship between a time-to-event outcome and the covariates. In this paper, we consider the quantile regression model for survival data with missing censoring indicators. Based on the augmented inverse probability weighting technique, two weighted estimating equations are developed and corresponding easily implemented algorithms are suggested to solve the estimating equations. Asymptotic properties of the resultant estimators and the resampling-based inference procedures are established. Finally, the finite sample performances of the proposed approaches are investigated in simulation studies and a real data application.

Age-period-cohort analysis of cancers not related to tobacco, screening, or HIV: sex and race differences.

OBJECTIVE: To identify trends in a residual category of cancers not typically associated with tobacco, screening, or human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. METHODS: For persons aged 20-84, we used sex- and race-specific age-period-cohort (APC) models to describe temporal patterns of incidence (1975-2004) and mortality (1970-2004) in the U.S. for a residual cancer category that excluded non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Kaposi sarcoma, and cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx, esophagus, pancreas, larynx, lung and bronchus, urinary bladder, kidney and renal pelvis, colon and rectum, prostate, female breast, and cervix uteri. RESULTS: Age-specific incidence rose (0.1-0.9% per year, on average) in every sex-race group, with factors related to both time period and birth cohort membership appearing to accelerate the increases in women. Age-specific mortality fell (0.6-0.9% per year, on average) for black and white men and women, with the declines decelerating in white women but accelerating in the other sex-race groups. Extrapolations of APC models predicted higher age-adjusted incidence rates in white women (11%), black women (5%), and white men (4%) in 2005-2009, relative to 2000-2004, and lower rates in black men (-3%), accompanied by lower age-adjusted mortality rates in every sex-race group (-8% in black men, -3% in black women, -1% in white men, and -1% in white women). CONCLUSIONS: The possibility that increased incidence in women over time reflects changes in underlying risks, diagnostic practices, or better case ascertainment should be actively explored. Declining mortality may signify improvements in cancer care.

Comparison of NTP historical control tumor incidence rates in female Harlan Sprague Dawley and Fischer 344/N Rats.

The National Toxicology Program (NTP) has historically used Fischer 344/N (F344/N) rats for the majority of its bioassays. Recently the NTP began using the Harlan Sprague Dawley (SD) as the primary rat model for NTP studies. The NTP had previously used female SD rats in nine bioassays. This article compares historical control (HC) tumor incidence rates from these nine SD rat studies with HC tumor rates from matched NTP F344/N rat bioassays to identify similarities and differences. Matching on sex, laboratory, diet, and route led to nine comparable F344/N rat studies. Our analyses revealed statistically significant strain differences, with female SD rats having lower incidence rates for clitoral gland adenoma (0.2% vs. 5.8%) and mononuclear cell leukemia (0.9% vs. 16.7%) and higher incidence rates for mammary gland fibroadenoma (67.4% vs. 48.4%), mammary gland carcinoma (10.2% vs. 2.4%), and thyroid gland C cell adenoma (25.4% vs. 13.6%) relative to female F344/N rats. These represent five of the seven most common tumor types among female SD and F344/N rats in the NTP HC database. When vehicle was included as an additional matching criterion, the number of comparable F344/N rat studies dropped to four, but similar results were obtained.

Temporal and demographic patterns of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence in Pennsylvania.

Our study analyzed temporal and demographic patterns of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) incidence in Pennsylvania and compared Pennsylvania time trends with national trends. Joinpoint and age-period-cohort analyses summarized sex- and race-specific NHL incidence time trends between 1985 and 2004. Ecologic analysis identified demographic factors associated with age-adjusted county-specific NHL incidence. NHL incidence in Pennsylvania increased annually: 1.6% and 2.5% in white and black men and 1.6% and 3.2% in white and black women. National trends were similar, except for smaller increases in white men. Diffuse lymphoma appeared to be the major contributor to the increases. NHL incidence was higher in Pennsylvania counties with greater percentages of urban residents. NHL incidence patterns in Pennsylvania were parallel to those seen nationally, with the highest rates occurring in white men and in persons residing in urban areas.

Additive hazards regression with censoring indicators missing at random.

In this article, the authors consider a semiparametric additive hazards regression model for right-censored data that allows some censoring indicators to be missing at random. They develop a class of estimating equations and use an inverse probability weighted approach to estimate the regression parameters. Nonparametric smoothing techniques are employed to estimate the probability of non-missingness and the conditional probability of an uncensored observation. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are derived. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimators perform well. They motivate and illustrate their methods with data from a brain cancer clinical trial.

Increasing Prevalence of Antinuclear Antibodies in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: Growing evidence suggests increasing frequencies of autoimmunity and certain autoimmune diseases, but findings are limited by the lack of systematic data and evolving approaches and definitions. This study was undertaken to investigate whether the prevalence of antinuclear antibodies (ANA), the most common biomarker of autoimmunity, changed over a recent 25-year span in the US. METHODS: Serum ANA were measured by standard indirect immunofluorescence assays on HEp-2 cells in 14,211 participants age ≥12 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, with approximately one-third from each of 3 time periods: 1988-1991, 1999-2004, and 2011-2012. We used logistic regression adjusted for sex, age, race/ethnicity, and survey design variables to estimate changes in ANA prevalence across the time periods. RESULTS: The prevalence of ANA was 11.0% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 9.7-12.6%) in 1988-1991, 11.5% (95% CI 10.3-12.8%) in 1999-2004, and 15.9% (95% CI 14.3-17.6%) in 2011-2012 (P for trend < 0.0001), which corresponds to ~22 million, ~27 million, and ~41 million affected individuals, respectively. Among adolescents age 12-19 years, ANA prevalence increased substantially, with odds ratios (ORs) of 2.02 (95% CI 1.16-3.53) and 2.88 (95% CI 1.64-5.04) in the second and third time periods relative to the first (P for trend < 0.0001). ANA prevalence increased in both sexes (especially in men), older adults (age ≥50 years), and non-Hispanic whites. These increases in ANA prevalence were not explained by concurrent trends in weight (obesity/overweight), smoking exposure, or alcohol consumption. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of ANA in the US has increased considerably in recent years. Additional studies to determine factors underlying these increases in ANA prevalence could elucidate causes of autoimmunity and enable the development of preventative measures.

Antinuclear antibodies and mortality in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2004).

OBJECTIVE: Recent studies suggest antinuclear antibodies (ANA) may be related to mortality risk, but evidence is sparse and inconclusive. Thus, we investigated ANA associations with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in U.S. adults. METHODS: Our sample included 3357 adults (ages ≥20 years) from the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with ANA measurements (1:80 dilution) and mortality data through 2011 (median follow-up: 9.4 years). We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) via weighted Cox regression to assess ANA associations with mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer. Models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and obesity. Analyses examined mortality in the full sample and in subgroups based on self-reported histories of CVD and cancer, both overall and stratified by sex and age at enrollment. RESULTS: Overall, ANA were not strongly associated with death from all causes (HR: 1.13; CI: 0.79, 1.60), from CVD (HR: 1.60; CI: 0.80, 3.20), or from cancer (HR: 1.58; CI: 0.75, 3.33), though all three HR estimates exceeded 1. In the subgroup with a history of cancer, ANA were associated with elevated all-cause mortality in men (HR: 2.28; CI: 1.01, 5.14) and in participants who enrolled at age ≥75 years (HR: 1.99; CI: 1.04, 3.80). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that ANA are not strongly associated with mortality in the general population. Longitudinal studies with repeated assessments are needed to understand the temporal relationship between ANA, aging-associated diseases, and mortality.

Associations Between Selected Xenobiotics and Antinuclear Antibodies in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999-2004.

BACKGROUND: Potential associations between background environmental chemical exposures and autoimmunity are understudied. OBJECTIVES: Our exploratory study investigated exposure to individual environmental chemicals and selected mixtures in relation to the presence of antinuclear antibodies (ANA), a widely used biomarker of autoimmunity, in a representative sample of the U.S. METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis used data on 4,340 participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2004), of whom 14% were ANA positive, to explore associations between ANA and concentrations of dioxins, dibenzofurans, polychlorinated biphenyls, organochlorines, organophosphates, phenols, metals, and other environmental exposures and metabolites measured in participants' serum, whole blood, or urine. For dioxin-like compounds with toxic equivalency factors, we developed and applied a new statistical approach to study selected mixtures. Lognormal models and censored-data methods produced estimates of chemical associations with ANA in males, nulliparous females, and parous females; these estimates were adjusted for confounders and accommodated concentrations below detectable levels. RESULTS: Several associations between chemical concentration and ANA positivity were observed, but only the association in males exposed to triclosan remained statistically significant after correcting for multiple comparisons (mean concentration ratio = 2.8; 95% CI: 1.8, 4.5; p < 0.00001). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that background levels of most xenobiotic exposures typical in the U.S. population are not strongly associated with ANA. Future studies should ideally reduce exposure misclassification by including prospective measurement of the chemicals of concern and should track changes in ANA and other autoantibodies over time. CITATION: Dinse GE, Jusko TA, Whitt IZ, Co CA, Parks CG, Satoh M, Chan EKL, Rose KM, Walker NJ, Birnbaum LS, Zeldin DC, Weinberg CR, Miller FW. 2016. Associations between selected xenobiotics and antinuclear antibodies in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999-2004. Environ Health Perspect 124:426-436; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409345.