A microsimulation model projecting the health care costs for resistance to antibacterial drugs in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that increasing antibacterial resistance (ABR) globally will cause extensive morbidity, deaths and escalated health care costs. METHODS: To project economic consequences of resistance to antibacterial drugs for the Swedish health care sector, we used an individual-based microsimulation model, SESIM. Health care consumption was represented as increased numbers of hospital days, outpatient visits and contact tracing for individuals getting clinical infections or becoming asymptomatic carriers. The risk of contracting a resistant bacterium was calculated using the incidence of mandatorily notifiable ABR in Sweden. RESULTS: We estimate accumulated additional health care costs attributable to notifiable ABR from 2018 until 2030 to EUR 406 million and EUR 1, 503 million until 2050. Until 2030 the largest proportion, more than EUR 247 million (EUR 958 million until 2050), was due to ESBL, followed by methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus, carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae, vancomycin-resistant Enterococci and penicillin non-susceptible Pneumococci which incurred costs of EUR 128 million (EUR 453 million, 2050), EUR 15 million (EUR 58 million, 2050), EUR 13 million (EUR 28 million, 2050) and EUR 2 million (EUR 6 million, 2050), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Projections concerning the future costs of ABR can be used to guide priorities and distribution of limited health care resources. Our estimates imply that costs in Sweden will have doubled by 2030 and increased more than 4-fold by 2050 if present trends continue and infection control practices remain unchanged. Still, indirect societal costs and costs for non-notifiable resistance remain to be added.

Patients' expectations of medicines--a review and qualitative synthesis.

BACKGROUND: An increasing part of prescribing of medicines is done for the purpose of managing risk for disease and is motivated by clinical and economic benefit on a long-term, population level. This makes benefit from medicines less tangible for individuals. Sociology of pharmaceuticals includes personal and social perspectives in the study of how medicines are used. We use two characterizations of patients' expectations of medicines to start forming a description of how individuals conceptualize benefits from risk management medicines. SEARCH STRATEGY AND SYNTHESIS: We reviewed the literature on patients' expectations with a focus on the influences on expectations regarding medicines prescribed for long-term conditions. Searches in Medline and Scopus identified 20 studies for inclusion, describing qualitative aspects of beliefs, views, thoughts and expectations regarding medicines. RESULTS: A qualitative synthesis using a constant comparative thematic analysis identified four themes describing influences on expectations: a need to achieve a specific outcome; the development of experiences and evaluation over time; negative values such as dependency and social stigma; and personalized meaning of the necessity and usefulness of medicines. CONCLUSIONS: The findings in this synthesis resonate with previous research into expectations of medicines for prevention and treatment of different conditions. However, a gap in the knowledge regarding patients' conceptualization of future benefits with medicines is identified. The study highlights suggestions for further empirical work to develop a deeper understanding of the role of patients' expectations in prescribing for long-term risk management.