Evaluation of historical and future coastal wetland change in the Yellow and Bohai Seas using satellite images and a land use model.

Predicting the future distribution of coastal wetlands and characterizing changes in the area of wetlands between historical and future periods are important for the formulation of wetland conservation and management plans. Here, we used a cellular automata-Markov model and satellite images to simulate the future distribution of coastal wetlands under the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) and ecological protection scenario (EP) along the Yellow and Bohai Seas in China; we also explored historical (from 1990 to 2020) and future (from 2020 to 2050) changes in wetlands and the factors driving these changes. We found that the area of tidal flats gradually decreased because of increases in the area of saltpans, and the aquaculture area increased because of land reclamation and the invasion of Spartina alterniflora; most of the tidal flat area was fragmented into multiple small patches. If the current rate of degradation continues (BAU), the area of tidal flats will decrease by 21.25%, and the area of saltpans and aquaculture will increase by 13.83% and 21.25%, respectively. By contrast, under EP, the area of tidal flats will increase by 13.81%, and this increase will mainly stem from the conversion of areas with S. alterniflora (174.49 km2, 33.22%) to aquaculture areas (155.17 km2, 29.54%). Clear differences between historical and future periods were observed among Liaohe Estuary, Bohai Bay, Laizhou Bay, and the Yancheng-Nantong coasts. Land reclamation is the main factor inducing changes in the area of tidal flats, saltpans, and aquaculture in Liaohe Estuary, Bohai Bay, and Laizhou Bay. Land reclamation and the S. alterniflora invasion both affect the distribution of wetlands along the Yancheng-Nantong coasts.

Biodiversity conservation and management of lake wetlands based on the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of crane habitats.

The typical lake wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are important wintering sites of cranes in China. The spatiotemporal evolution of crane populations and their habitats has great value in clarifying the pivotal role of regional lake wetlands in biodiversity conservation. Therefore, 2562 data points of four crane species were selected in this study. The data reflected the distributional position of the cranes over the period 2000-2020. Twelve surrounding environmental factors were selected to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution in the study area by using the MaxEnt model. The Jackknife method was used to identify the main environmental factors affecting the choice of crane habitats. The results indicated that: (1) Developed land in the study area increased by 42,795.81 hm2. The crane populations were mainly distributed in the farmland and mudflat, and their number decreased yearly. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the area of suitable crane habitat experienced an overall decrease. Specifically, the mid-suitable area dwindled by 6234.23 hm2, marking a substantial reduction of 52.05 %. Similarly, the most suitable area saw a decline of 786.41 hm2, representing a noteworthy decrease of 71.09 %. (3) The findings from the analysis of influencing factors revealed a dynamic pattern over the years. Habitat type, water density, and distance to water were the main influencing factors in the study area from 2000 to 2020. This study provides a new perspective on the conservation and structural habitat restoration of crane populations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

An integrated model for prediction of hydrologic anomalies for habitat suitability of overwintering geese in a large floodplain wetland, China.

Climate anomalies and increasing human activities cause a high frequency of extreme hydrological events in wetlands, which has put waterbirds under greater survival pressure than ever. Therefore, it is crucial to predict the impact of this phenomenon on the habitat suitability of waterbirds. This study investigated the response of the goose distribution probability to hydrological variations using the flood duration index (FD), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and waterbirds GPS tracking data in Poyang Lake. An overwintering geese habitat suitability index (HSI) is built based on the FD, EVI, and threat index and verifies the accuracy of the model simulation. Then, the effects of drought and flood on the goose habitat especially sub-lakes with different connectivity were analyzed. The findings reveal that in dry and flood years, geese will broaden their range of feeding vegetation (more fresh or mature vegetation) in response to environmental deterioration. Both drought and flood can lead to a decline in the HSI, especially flood. Connected sub-lakes are more vulnerable to hydrological anomalies than controlled sub-lakes. This research establishes a scientific foundation for floodplain wetland hydrology management and waterbird conservation.

Spatial and temporal changes in shorebird habitats under different land use scenarios along the Yellow and Bohai Sea coasts in China.

The effect of coastal wetland loss on shorebird habitat in recent years has been widely reported in previous studies. Various coastal wetland conservation and restoration measures have been implemented or will soon be implemented in China. The extent to which these measures will affect the area and structure of coastal wetland habitat in the future remains unclear. Here, we predicted changes in habitat area and structure for 39 common shorebird species along the coasts of the Yellow and Bohai Seas using a cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) land use scenario model and a maximum entropy species distribution model, along with terrain factors (slope, aspect, and digital evaluation model) and climate factors (temperature and precipitation) from the Data Centre for Resources and Environmental Sciences at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, land cover maps interpreted using the human-computer interactive method, and citizen science data of shorebird occurrences derived from eBird, Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and Bird Report. We found that shorebird habitat was most abundant along the coasts of Bohai Bay, Laizhou Bay, and Yancheng. The area of habitat decreased and became increasingly fragmented between 2000 and 2020 for more than half of the 39 species. Under the future business-as-usual scenario, the area of shorebird habitat decreased from 2020 to 2050, and the remaining habitat became increasingly fragmented. Under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, habitat loss was mitigated, and habitat connectivity was improved. The area of habitat was lower in 2050 under the EP scenario than in 2000 for most species, especially threatened species, suggesting that the area of habitat will not return to year-2000 levels under the EP scenario. These results emphasize the need to protect remaining shorebird habitats and implement ecological conservation measures to ensure the long-term preservation of coastal wetlands.

An evaluating system for wetland ecological risk: Case study in coastal mainland China.

Coastal wetland degradation and fragmentation contribute to habitat and biodiversity loss. We construct wetland ecological risk assessment framework to evaluate the risk posed to 35 coastal wetland national nature reserves (NNRs) in China for the years 2000 and 2020. Our wetland ecological risk index (WRI) is based on an external hazard sub-index (EHI) and an internal vulnerability sub-index. Most NNRs have low EHI values in both 2000 and 2020. Ratios of change in EHI range from -22.76% to 52.15% (a negative value indicates a decrease, a positive value an increase), and the EHI for 20 of 35 NNRs (57.1%) decreases over time. Variation in the internal vulnerability index ranges -44.78% to 88.97%, and increases at 18 NNRs (51.4%) over time. WRI variation ranges between -48.13% and 82.91%, and increases at 19 NNRs (54.3%). Most NNRs are ranked as being at low, medium risk in both 2000 and 2020. Notably, the number of high-risk NNRs increases from 3 to 10 (for which WRI values also increase). Expansion of built-up land, cropland occupation (in 2020), road disturbance, and water quality are all significantly associated WRI. Intensified management of the 10 NNRs ranked at high risk is necessary to prevent further deterioration.

Using citizen science data to inform the relative sensitivity of waterbirds to natural versus human-dominated landscapes in China.

Habitat loss is widely regarded as one of the most destructive factors threatening native biodiversity. Because migratory waterbirds include some of the most globally endangered species, information on their sensitivity to landscape would benefit their conservation. While citizen science data on waterbird species occurrence are subjected to various biases, their appropriate interpretation can provide information of benefit to species conservation. We apply a bootstrapping procedure to citizen science data to reduce sampling biases and report the relative sensitivity of waterbird species to natural versus human-dominated landscapes. Analyses are performed on 30,491 data records for 69 waterbird species referred to five functional groups observed in China between 2000 and 2018. Of these taxa, 30 species (43.5%) are significantly associated with natural landscapes, more so for cranes, geese, and ducks than for shorebirds and herons. The relationship between land association and the threat status of waterbirds is significant when the range size of species is considered as the mediator, and the higher the land association, the higher the threat status. Sensitive species significantly associated with natural landscapes are eight times more likely to be classified as National Protected Species (NPS) Classes I or II than less sensitive species significantly associated with human-dominated landscapes. We demonstrate the potential for citizen science data to assist in conservation planning in the context of landscape changes. Our methods might assist others to obtain information to help relieve species decline and extinction.

Effects of environmental variation on stable isotope abundances during typical seasonal floodplain dry season litter decomposition.

Unique hydrological characteristics and complex topography can create wide-ranging dry season environmental heterogeneity in response to groundwater level across China's Jiangxi Province Poyang Lake wetland. Soil traits are one of several fluctuating environmental variables. To determine the effects of soil variables on stable isotope (δ13C and δ15N) abundances during decomposition, we performed a field experiment using Carex cinerascens along a groundwater level gradient (GT-L: -25 to -50cm, GT-LM: -15 to -25cm, GT-MH: -5 to -15cm, GT-H: 5 to -5cm) in a shallow lake. Twelve soil properties-including total organic carbon (TOC), nitrogen (N), pH, moisture, bulk density, clay, silt, sand, peroxidase, cellulase, microbial biomass carbon (MBC), and microbial biomass nitrogen-were measured in surface soil samples to assess soil environmental conditions. Analyses were performed to determine the effects of soil traits and lignin degradation on changes in stable isotope abundances. This study revealed that stable isotope abundances were significantly lower at high groundwater levels than at low groundwater levels. Lignin degradation was associated with a decrease in both δ13C and δ15N abundances. These two stable isotopes were positively related with soil N and bulk density, but negatively with pH and microbial quotient (MBC/TOC). Variation partitioning analysis (VPA) showed that soil variables and lignin decay rates explained 80.1% of the δ13C variation and 42.8% of the δ15N variation. Soil chemical and biological variables exhibited significant interactions with lignin decay rates, indicating they may affect stable isotope abundances via complex mechanisms. Our results indicate that the change in stable isotope abundances during decomposition may be affected directly by soil variables or indirectly through lignin degradation. Our results provide useful insight for understanding the roles of litter decomposition and soil traits in changing environmental conditions of seasonal floodplain wetlands.