Significant fibrosis predicts new-onset diabetes mellitus and arterial hypertension in patients with NASH.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) could play a catalytic role in the development of metabolic comorbidities, although the magnitude of this effect in metabolically healthy patients with NAFLD remains unclear. We assessed the role of biopsy-proven NAFLD on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and other metabolic comorbidities (arterial hypertension [AHT], and dyslipidemia) in metabolically healthy patients. METHODS: We included 178 metabolically healthy-defined by the absence of baseline T2DM, AHT, dyslipidemia-patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from the HEPAmet Registry (N = 1,030). Hepamet fibrosis score (HFS), NAFLD fibrosis score, and Fibrosis-4 were calculated. Follow-up was computed from biopsy to the diagnosis of T2DM, AHT, or dyslipidemia. RESULTS: During a follow-up of 5.6 ± 4.4 years, T2DM occurred in 9% (16/178), AHT in 8.4% (15/178), low HDL in 9.6% (17/178), and hypertriglyceridemia in 23.6% (42/178) of patients. In multivariate analysis, significant fibrosis predicted T2DM and AHT. Independent variables related to T2DM appearance were significant fibrosis (HR 2.95; 95% CI 1.19-7.31; p = 0.019), glucose levels (p = 0.008), age (p = 0.007) and BMI (p = 0.039). AHT was independently linked to significant fibrosis (HR 2.39; 95% CI 1.14-5.10; p = 0.028), age (p = 0.0001), BMI (p = 0.006), glucose (p = 0.021) and platelets (p = 0.050). The annual incidence rate of T2DM was higher in patients with significant fibrosis (4.4 vs. 1.2 cases per 100 person-years), and increased in the presence of obesity, similar to AHT (4.6 vs. 1.1 cases per 100 person-years). HFS >0.12 predicted the risk of T2DM (25% [4/16] vs. HFS <0.12 4.5% [4/88]; logRank 6.658, p = 0.010). CONCLUSION: Metabolically healthy patients with NAFLD-related significant fibrosis were at greater risk of developing T2DM and AHT. HFS >0.12, but not NAFLD fibrosis score or Fibrosis-4, predicted the occurrence of T2DM. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with biopsy-proven non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and significant fibrosis were at risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus and arterial hypertension. The risk of metabolic outcomes in patients with significant fibrosis was increased in the presence of obesity. In addition to liver biopsy, patients at intermediate-to-high risk of significant fibrosis by Hepamet fibrosis score were at risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Development and Validation of Hepamet Fibrosis Scoring System-A Simple, Noninvasive Test to Identify Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease With Advanced Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Fibrosis affects prognoses for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Several non-invasive scoring systems have aimed to identify patients at risk for advanced fibrosis, but inconclusive results and variations in features of patients (diabetes, obesity and older age) reduce their diagnostic accuracy. We sought to develop a scoring system based on serum markers to identify patients with NAFLD at risk for advanced fibrosis. METHODS: We collected data from 2452 patients with NAFLD at medical centers in Italy, France, Cuba, and China. We developed the Hepamet fibrosis scoring system using demographic, anthropometric, and laboratory test data, collected at time of liver biopsy, from a training cohort of patients from Spain (n = 768) and validated the system using patients from Cuba (n = 344), Italy (n = 288), France (n = 830), and China (n = 232). Hepamet fibrosis score (HFS) were compared with those of previously developed fibrosis scoring systems (the NAFLD fibrosis score [NFS] and FIB-4). The diagnostic accuracy of the Hepamet fibrosis scoring system was assessed based on area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic odds ratio, and positive and negative predictive values and likelihood ratios. RESULTS: Variables used to determine HFS were patient sex, age, homeostatic model assessment score, presence of diabetes, levels of aspartate aminotransferase, and albumin, and platelet counts; these were independently associated with advanced fibrosis. HFS discriminated between patients with and without advanced fibrosis with an AUROC curve value of 0.85 whereas NFS or FIB-4 did so with AUROC values of 0.80 (P = .0001). In the validation set, cut-off HFS of 0.12 and 0.47 identified patients with and without advanced fibrosis with 97.2% specificity, 74% sensitivity, a 92% negative predictive value, a 76.3% positive predictive value, a 13.22 positive likelihood ratio, and a 0.31 negative likelihood ratio. HFS were not affected by patient age, body mass index, hypertransaminasemia, or diabetes. The Hepamet fibrosis scoring system had the greatest net benefit in identifying patients who should undergo liver biopsy analysis and led to significant improvements in reclassification, reducing the number of patients with undetermined results to 20% from 30% for the FIB-4 and NFS systems (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Using clinical and laboratory data from patients with NAFLD, we developed and validated the Hepamet fibrosis scoring system, which identified patients with advanced fibrosis with greater accuracy than the FIB-4 and NFS systems. the Hepamet system provides a greater net benefit for the decision-making process to identify patients who should undergo liver biopsy analysis.

The biochemical pattern defines MASLD phenotypes linked to distinct histology and prognosis.

BACKGROUND: MASLD can manifest as hepatocellular damage, which can result in mild elevation of aminotransferases. However, in some patients, MASLD presents with cholestatic pattern. OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of the biochemical pattern on the natural course of MASLD, including liver damage in histology, the accuracy of non-invasive tests(NITs), and prognosis. METHODS: Multicenter study enrolling 2156 patients with biopsy-proven MASLD, who were classified based on their[ALT/ULN)]/[(ALP/ULN)] levels at the time of biopsy: (a) hepatocellular pattern(H), > 5; (b) mixed pattern(M),2-5; (c) cholestatic pattern(C), < 2. OUTCOMES: (a) histological evaluation of the single components of NAS, MASH, and fibrosis; (b) NITs and transient elastography assessing advanced fibrosis; (c) prognosis determined by the appearance of decompensated cirrhosis and death. RESULTS: Out of the 2156 patients, 22.9% exhibited the H-pattern, whilst 31.7% exhibited the C-pattern. Severe steatosis, ballooning, lobular inflammation, and MASH (56.4% H vs. 41.9% M vs. 31.9% C) were more common in H-pattern (p = 0.0001),whilst C-pattern was linked to cirrhosis (5.8% H vs. 5.6% M vs. 10.9% C; p = 0.0001). FIB-4(0.74(95% CI 0.69-0.79) vs. 0.83 (95% CI 0.80-0.85); p = 0.005) and Hepamet Fibrosis Score(0.77 (95% CI 0.69-0.85) vs. 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.87); p = 0.044)exhibited lower AUROCs in the H-pattern. The C-pattern[HR 2.37 (95% CI 1.12-5.02); p = 0.024], along with age, diabetes, and cirrhosis were independently associated with mortality. Most patients maintained their initial biochemical pattern during the second evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: The H-pattern exhibited greater necro-inflammation in the histology than the C-pattern, whereas the latter showed more cirrhosis. The accuracy of NITs in detecting fibrosis was decreased in H-pattern. The occurrence of decompensated events and mortality was predominant in C-pattern. Therefore, identifying MASLD phenotypes based on the biochemical presentation could be relevant for clinical practice.