Global risk dynamics of Borrelia miyamotoi in the context of climate change.

The impact of Borrelia miyamotoi on human health, facilitated by the expanding geographical distribution and increasing population of Ixodes ticks, remains obscure in the context of global climate change. We employed multiple models to evaluate the effect of global climate change on the risk of B. miyamotoi worldwide across various scenarios. The habitat suitability index of four primary vector tick species for B. miyamotoi, including Ixodes persulcatus, Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes pacificus and Ixodes scapularis, was projected using a boosted regression tree model, considering multiple shared socio-economic pathway scenarios over various time periods. The modelling analysis reveals that, apart from I. scapularis, future global warming will result in a northward shift in the other three vector tick species and a gradual reduction in suitable habitats. Random forest models indicate consistent changes in B. miyamotoi and its primary tick species, with potential risk areas shrinking and shifting northward, particularly in the eastern USA, northeastern and northern Europe and northeast Asia. These findings highlight the urgent need for enhanced active surveillance of B. miyamotoi infection in primary vector tick species across projected potential risk areas. The effect of climate change on B. miyamotoi distribution might have significant implications for public health decision-making regarding tick-borne pathogens.

Epidemiological characteristics and antibody kinetics of elderly population with booster vaccination following both Omicron BA.5 and XBB waves in China.

After the termination of zero-COVID-19 policy, the populace in China has experienced both Omicron BA.5 and XBB waves. Considering the poor antibody responses and severe outcomes observed among the elderly following infection, we conducted a longitudinal investigation to examine the epidemiological characteristics and antibody kinetics among 107 boosted elderly participants following the Omicron BA.5 and XBB waves. We observed that 96 participants (89.7%) were infected with Omicron BA.5, while 59 (55.1%) participants were infected with Omicron XBB. Notably, 52 participants (48.6%) experienced dual infections of both Omicron BA.5 and XBB. The proportion of symptomatic cases appeared to decrease following the XBB wave (18.6%) compared to that after the BA.5 wave (59.3%). Omicron BA.5 breakthrough infection induced lower neutralizing antibody titers against XBB.1.5, BA.2.86, and JN.1, while reinfection with Omicron XBB broadened the antibody responses against all measured Omicron subvariants and may alleviate the wild type-vaccination induced immune imprinting. Boosted vaccination type and comorbidities were the significant factors associated with antibody responses. Updated vaccines based on emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants are needed to control the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic in the elderly.

SARS-CoV-2 reinfection broadens the antibody responses and promotes the phenotypic differentiation of virus-specific memory T cells in adolescents.

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron subvariants raises concerns regarding the effectiveness of immunity acquired from previous Omicron subvariants breakthrough infections (BTIs) or reinfections (RIs) against the current circulating Omicron subvariants. In this study, we prospectively investigate the dynamic changes of virus-specific antibody and T cell responses among 77 adolescents following Omicron BA.2.3 BTI with or without subsequent Omicron BA.5 RI. Notably, the neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) titers against various detected SARS-CoV-2 variants, especially the emerging Omicron CH.1.1, XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, EG.5.1, and JN.1 subvariants, exhibited a significant decrease along the time. A lower level of IgG and NAbs titers post-BTI was found to be closely associated with subsequent RI. Elevated NAbs levels and shortened antigenic distances were observed following Omicron BA.5 RI. Robust T cell responses against both Omicron BA.2- and CH.1.1-spike peptides were observed at each point visited. The exposure to Omicron BA.5 promoted phenotypic differentiation of virus-specific memory T cells, even among the non-seroconversion adolescents. Therefore, updated vaccines are needed to provide effective protection against newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants among adolescents.

A systematic review of environmental covariates and methods for spatial or temporal scrub typhus distribution prediction.

BACKGROUND: Scrub typhus is underdiagnosed and underreported but emerging as a global public health problem. To inform future burden and prediction studies we examined through a systematic review the potential effect of environmental covariates on scrub typhus occurrence and the methods which have been used for its prediction. METHODS: In this systematic review, we searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and other databases, with no language and publication time restrictions, for studies that investigated environmental covariates or utilized methods to predict the spatial or temporal human. Data were manually extracted following a set of queries and systematic analysis was conducted. RESULTS: We included 68 articles published in 1978-2024 with relevant data from 7 countries/regions. Significant environmental risk factors for scrub typhus include temperature (showing positive or inverted-U relationships), precipitation (with positive or inverted-U patterns), humidity (exhibiting complex positive, inverted-U, or W-shaped associations), sunshine duration (with positive, inverted-U associations), elevation, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the proportion of cropland. Socioeconomic and biological factors were rarely explored. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) (n = 8) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach (n = 11) were the most popular methods for predicting temporal trends and spatial distribution of scrub typhus, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings summarized the evidence on environmental covariates affecting scrub typhus occurrence and the methodologies used for predictive modelling. We review the existing knowledge gaps and outline recommendations for future studies modelling disease prediction and burden. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42022315209.

Projecting spatiotemporal dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in the mainland of China.

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease with increasing incidence and geographic extent. The extent to which global climate change affects the incidence of SFTS disease remains obscure. We use an integrated multi-model, multi-scenario framework to assess the impact of global climate change on SFTS disease in China. The spatial distribution of habitat suitability for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis was predicted by applying a boosted regression tree model under four alternative climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) for the periods 2030-2039, 2050-2059, and 2080-2089. We incorporate the SFTS cases in the mainland of China from 2010 to 2019 with environmental variables and the projected distribution of H. longicornis into a generalized additive model to explore the current and future spatiotemporal dynamics of SFTS. Our results demonstrate an expanded geographic distribution of H. longicornis toward Northern and Northwestern China, showing a more pronounced change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In contrast, the environmental suitability of H. longicornis is predicted to be reduced in Central and Eastern China. The SFTS incidence in three time periods (2030-2039, 2050-2059, and 2080-2089) is predicted to be increased as compared to the 2010s in the context of various RCPs. A heterogeneous trend across provinces, however, was observed, when an increased incidence in Liaoning and Shandong provinces, while decreased incidence in Henan province is predicted. Notably, we predict possible outbreaks in Xinjiang and Yunnan in the future, where only sporadic cases have been reported previously. These findings highlight the need for tick control and population awareness of SFTS in endemic regions, and enhanced monitoring in potential risk areas.

Zoonotic pathogens identified in rodents and shrews from four provinces, China, 2015-2022.

Rodents and shrews are major reservoirs of various pathogens that are related to zoonotic infectious diseases. The purpose of this study was to investigate co-infections of zoonotic pathogens in rodents and shrews trapped in four provinces of China. We sampled different rodent and shrew communities within and around human settlements in four provinces of China and characterised several important zoonotic viral, bacterial, and parasitic pathogens by PCR methods and phylogenetic analysis. A total of 864 rodents and shrews belonging to 24 and 13 species from RODENTIA and EULIPOTYPHLA orders were captured, respectively. For viral pathogens, two species of hantavirus (Hantaan orthohantavirus and Caobang orthohantavirus) were identified in 3.47% of rodents and shrews. The overall prevalence of Bartonella spp., Anaplasmataceae, Babesia spp., Leptospira spp., Spotted fever group Rickettsiae, Borrelia spp., and Coxiella burnetii were 31.25%, 8.91%, 4.17%, 3.94%, 3.59%, 3.47%, and 0.58%, respectively. Furthermore, the highest co-infection status of three pathogens was observed among Bartonella spp., Leptospira spp., and Anaplasmataceae with a co-infection rate of 0.46%. Our results suggested that species distribution and co-infections of zoonotic pathogens were prevalent in rodents and shrews, highlighting the necessity of active surveillance for zoonotic pathogens in wild mammals in wider regions.

Mapping global zoonotic niche and interregional transmission risk of monkeypox: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of monkeypox have been ongoing in non-endemic countries since May 2022. A thorough assessment of its global zoonotic niche and potential transmission risk is lacking. METHODS: We established an integrated database on global monkeypox virus (MPXV) occurrence during 1958 - 2022. Phylogenetic analysis was performed to examine the evolution of MPXV and effective reproductive number (Rt) was estimated over time to examine the dynamic of MPXV transmissibility. The potential ecological drivers of zoonotic transmission and inter-regional transmission risks of MPXV were examined. RESULTS: As of 24 July 2022, a total of 49 432 human patients with MPXV infections have been reported in 78 countries. Based on 525 whole genome sequences, two main clades of MPXV were formed, of which Congo Basin clade has a higher transmissibility than West African clade before the 2022-monkeypox, estimated by the overall Rt (0.81 vs. 0.56), and the latter significantly increased in the recent decade. Rt of 2022-monkeypox varied from 1.14 to 4.24 among the 15 continuously epidemic countries outside Africa, with the top three as Peru (4.24, 95% CI: 2.89-6.71), Brazil (3.45, 95% CI: 1.62-7.00) and the United States (2.44, 95% CI: 1.62-3.60). The zoonotic niche of MPXV was associated with the distributions of Graphiurus lorraineus and Graphiurus crassicaudatus, the richness of Rodentia, and four ecoclimatic indicators. Besides endemic areas in Africa, more areas of South America, the Caribbean States, and Southeast and South Asia are ecologically suitable for the occurrence of MPXV once the virus has invaded. Most of Western Europe has a high-imported risk of monkeypox from Western Africa, whereas France and the United Kingdom have a potential imported risk of Congo Basin clade MPXV from Central Africa. Eleven of the top 15 countries with a high risk of MPXV importation from the main countries of 2022-monkeypox outbreaks are located at Europe with the highest risk in Italy, Ireland and Poland. CONCLUSIONS: The suitable ecological niche for MPXV is not limited to Africa, and the transmissibility of MPXV was significantly increased during the 2022-monkeypox outbreaks. The imported risk is higher in Europe, both from endemic areas and currently epidemic countries. Future surveillance and targeted intervention programs are needed in its high-risk areas informed by updated prediction.

Broad Impacts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Acute Respiratory Infections in China: An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: To combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented worldwide, which impacted a broad spectrum of acute respiratory infections (ARIs). METHODS: Etiologically diagnostic data from 142 559 cases with ARIs, who were tested for 8 viral pathogens (influenza virus [IFV], respiratory syncytial virus [RSV], human parainfluenza virus [HPIV], human adenovirus [HAdV], human metapneumovirus [HMPV], human coronavirus [HCoV], human bocavirus [HBoV], and human rhinovirus [HRV]) between 2012 and 2021, were analyzed to assess the changes in respiratory infections in China during the first COVID-19 pandemic year compared with pre-pandemic years. RESULTS: Test-positive rates of all respiratory viruses decreased during 2020, compared to the average levels during 2012-2019, with changes ranging from -17.2% for RSV to -87.6% for IFV. Sharp decreases mostly occurred between February and August when massive NPIs remained active, although HRV rebounded to the historical level during the summer. While IFV and HMPV were consistently suppressed year-round, RSV, HPIV, HCoV, HRV, and HBoV resurged and went beyond historical levels during September 2020-January 2021, after NPIs were largely relaxed and schools reopened. Resurgence was more prominent among children <18 years and in northern China. These observations remain valid after accounting for seasonality and long-term trend of each virus. CONCLUSIONS: Activities of respiratory viral infections were reduced substantially in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, and massive NPIs were likely the main driver. Lifting of NPIs can lead to resurgence of viral infections, particularly in children.

Decline of onset-to-diagnosis interval and its impacts on clinical outcome of COVID-19 in China: a nation-wide observational study.

BACKGROUND: To quantitatively assess the impact of the onset-to-diagnosis interval (ODI) on severity and death for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted based on the data on COVID-19 cases of China over the age of 40 years reported through China's National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System from February 5, 2020 to October 8, 2020. The impacts of ODI on severe rate (SR) and case fatality rate (CFR) were evaluated at individual and population levels, which was further disaggregated by sex, age and geographic origin. RESULTS: As the rapid decline of ODI from around 40 days in early January to < 3 days in early March, both CFR and SR of COVID-19 largely dropped below 5% in China. After adjusting for age, sex, and region, an effect of ODI on SR was observed with the highest OR of 2.95 (95% CI 2.37‒3.66) at Day 10-11 and attributable fraction (AF) of 29.1% (95% CI 22.2‒36.1%) at Day 8-9. However, little effect of ODI on CFR was observed. Moreover, discrepancy of effect magnitude was found, showing a greater effect from ODI on SR among patients of male sex, younger age, and those cases in Wuhan. CONCLUSION: The ODI was significantly associated with the severity of COVID-19, highlighting the importance of timely diagnosis, especially for patients who were confirmed to gain increased benefit from early diagnosis to some extent.

The imported infections among foreign travelers in China: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: In the past few decades, globalization has rendered more frequent and intensive population movement between countries, which has changed the original disease spectrum and brought a huge health impact on the global population including China. This study aims to describe the spectrum and epidemiological characteristics of imported infections among foreign travelers travelling to China. METHODS: The data on imported infections among foreign travelers were obtained from Custom Inbound Screening System (CISS) and the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System (NNIDRS). All the infections were classified into respiratory, gastrointestinal, vector-borne, blood/sex-transmitted and mucocutaneous diseases, of which case numbers and incidences were calculated and the proportions were compared among subgroups. RESULTS: In total, 17,189 travelers diagnosed with 58 imported infectious diseases were reported from 2014 to 2018, with an overall incidence of 122.59 per million. Respiratory infection (7,351 cases, mainly influenza) and blood/sex-transmitted diseases (6,114 cases mainly Hepatitis B and HIV infection) were the most frequently diagnosed diseases, followed by vector-borne infections (3,128 cases, mainly dengue fever and malaria). The highest case number was from Asia and Europe, while the highest incidence rate was from Africa (296.00 per million). When specific diagnosis was compared, both the highest absolute case number and incidence were observed for influenza. An obvious seasonal pattern was observed for vector-borne diseases, with the annual epidemic spanning from July to November. The origin-destination matrices disclosed the movement of imported infection followed specific routes. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provided a profile of infectious diseases among foreign travelers travelling to China and pinpointed the target regions, seasons and populations for prevention and control, to attain an informed control of imported infections in China.

The Impact of Weather and Air Pollution on Viral Infection and Disease Outcome Among Pediatric Pneumonia Patients in Chongqing, China, from 2009 to 2018: A Prospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: For pediatric pneumonia, the meteorological and air pollution indicators have been frequently investigated for their association with viral circulation but not for their impact on disease severity. METHODS: We performed a 10-year prospective, observational study in 1 hospital in Chongqing, China, to recruit children with pneumonia. Eight commonly seen respiratory viruses were tested. Autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and random forest (RF) models were used to fit monthly detection rates of each virus at the population level and to predict the possibility of severe pneumonia at the individual level, respectively. RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2018, 6611 pediatric pneumonia patients were included, and 4846 (73.3%) tested positive for at least 1 respiratory virus. The patient median age was 9 months (interquartile range, 4‒20). ADL models demonstrated a decent fitting of detection rates of R2 > 0.7 for respiratory syncytial virus, human rhinovirus, parainfluenza virus, and human metapneumovirus. Based on the RF models, the area under the curve for host-related factors alone was 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI], .87‒.89) and 0.86 (95% CI, .85‒.88) for meteorological and air pollution indicators alone and 0.62 (95% CI, .60‒.63) for viral infections alone. The final model indicated that 9 weather and air pollution indicators were important determinants of severe pneumonia, with a relative contribution of 62.53%, which is significantly higher than respiratory viral infections (7.36%). CONCLUSIONS: Meteorological and air pollution predictors contributed more to severe pneumonia in children than did respiratory viruses. These meteorological data could help predict times when children would be at increased risk for severe pneumonia and when interventions, such as reducing outdoor activities, may be warranted.

Epidemiology and Ecology of Severe Fever With Thrombocytopenia Syndrome in China, 2010‒2018.

BACKGROUND: The growing epidemics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), an emerging tick-borne disease in East Asia, and its high case fatality rate have raised serious public health concerns. METHODS: Surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed SFTS cases in China were collected. The spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological features were explored. The socioeconomic and environmental drivers were identified for SFTS diffusion using survival analysis and for SFTS persistence using a two-stage generalized boosted regression tree model. RESULTS: During 2010‒2018, a total of 7721 laboratory-confirmed SFTS cases were reported in China, with an overall case fatality rate (CFR) of 10.5%. The average annual incidence increased >20 times and endemic areas expanded from 27 to 1574 townships, whereas the CFR declined from 19% to 10% during this period. Four geographical clusters-the Changbai Mountain area, the Jiaodong Peninsula, the Taishan Mountain area, and the Huaiyangshan Mountain area-were identified. Diffusion and persistence of the disease were both driven by elevation, high coverages of woods, crops, and shrubs, and the vicinity of habitats of migratory birds but had different meteorological drivers. Residents ≥60 years old in rural areas with crop fields and tea farms were at increased risk to SFTS. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance of SFTS and intervention programs need to be targeted at areas ecologically suitability for vector ticks and in the vicinity of migratory birds to curb the growing epidemic.

Prolonged viral shedding of SARS-CoV-2 and related factors in symptomatic COVID-19 patients: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The temporal relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and antibody production and clinical progression remained obscure. The aim of this study was to describe the viral kinetics of symptomatic patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection and identify factors that might contribute to prolonged viral shedding. METHODS: Symptomatic COVID-19 patients were enrolled in two hospitals in Wuhan, China, from whom the respiratory samples were collected and measured for viral loads consecutively by reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) assay. The viral shedding pattern was delineated in relate to the epidemiologic and clinical information. RESULTS: Totally 2726 respiratory samples collected from 703 patients were quantified. The SARS-CoV-2 viral loads were at the highest level during the initial stage after symptom onset, which subsequently declined with time. The median time to SARS-CoV-2 negativity of nasopharyngeal test was 28 days, significantly longer in patients with older age (> 60 years old), female gender and those having longer interval from symptom onset to hospital admission (> 10 days). The multivariate Cox regression model revealed significant effect from older age (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.55-0.96), female gender (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.55-0.96) and longer interval from symptom onset to admission (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.33-0.59) on longer time to SARS-CoV-2 negativity. The IgM antibody titer was significantly higher in the low viral loads group at 41-60 days after symptom onset. At the population level, the average viral loads were higher in early than in late outbreak periods. CONCLUSIONS: The prolonged viral shedding of SARS-CoV-2 was observed in COVID-19 patients, particularly in older, female and those with longer interval from symptom onset to admission.

Association between fatality rate of COVID-19 and selenium deficiency in China.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has impacted populations around the world, with the fatality rate varying dramatically across countries. Selenium, as one of the important micronutrients implicated in viral infections, was suggested to play roles. METHODS: An ecological study was performed to assess the association between the COVID-19 related fatality and the selenium content both from crops and topsoil, in China. RESULTS: Totally, 14,045 COVID-19 cases were reported from 147 cities during 8 December 2019-13 December 2020 were included. Based on selenium content in crops, the case fatality rates (CFRs) gradually increased from 1.17% in non-selenium-deficient areas, to 1.28% in moderate-selenium-deficient areas, and further to 3.16% in severe-selenium-deficient areas (P = 0.002). Based on selenium content in topsoil, the CFRs gradually increased from 0.76% in non-selenium-deficient areas, to 1.70% in moderate-selenium-deficient areas, and further to 1.85% in severe-selenium-deficient areas (P < 0.001). The zero-inflated negative binomial regression model showed a significantly higher fatality risk in cities with severe-selenium-deficient selenium content in crops than non-selenium-deficient cities, with incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 3.88 (95% CIs: 1.21-12.52), which was further confirmed by regression fitting the association between CFR of COVID-19 and selenium content in topsoil, with the IRR of 2.38 (95% CIs: 1.14-4.98) for moderate-selenium-deficient cities and 3.06 (1.49-6.27) for severe-selenium-deficient cities. CONCLUSIONS: Regional selenium deficiency might be related to an increased CFR of COVID-19. Future studies are needed to explore the associations between selenium status and disease outcome at individual-level.

The differential demographic pattern of coronavirus disease 2019 fatality outside Hubei and from six hospitals in Hubei, China: a descriptive analysis.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has been largely controlled in China, to the point where case fatality rate (CFR) data can be comprehensively evaluated. METHODS: Data on confirmed patients, with a final outcome reported as of 29 March 2020, were obtained from official websites and other internet sources. The hospitalized CFR (HCFR) was estimated, epidemiological features described, and risk factors for a fatal outcome identified. RESULTS: The overall HCFR in China was estimated to be 4.6% (95% CI 4.5-4.8%, P < 0.001). It increased with age and was higher in males than females. Although the highest HCFR observed was in male patients ≥70 years old, the relative risks for death outcome by sex varied across age groups, and the greatest HCFR risk ratio for males vs. females was shown in the age group of 50-60 years, higher than age groups of 60-70 and ≥ 70 years. Differential age/sex HCFR patterns across geographical regions were found: the age effect on HCFR was greater in other provinces outside Hubei than in Wuhan. An effect of longer interval from symptom onset to admission was only observed outside Hubei, not in Wuhan. By performing multivariate analysis and survival analysis, the higher HCFR was associated with older age (both P < 0.001), and male sex (both P < 0.001). Only in regions outside Hubei, longer interval from symptom onset to admission, were associated with higher HCFR. CONCLUSIONS: This up-to-date and comprehensive picture of COVID-19 HCFR and its drivers will help healthcare givers target limited medical resources to patients with high risk of fatality.

Epidemiological features of COVID-19 patients with prolonged incubation period and its implications for controlling the epidemics in China.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 patients with long incubation period were reported in clinical practice and tracing of close contacts, but their epidemiological or clinical features remained vague. METHODS: We analyzed 11,425 COVID-19 cases reported between January-August, 2020 in China. The accelerated failure time model, Logistic and modified Poisson regression models were used to investigate the determinants of prolonged incubation period, as well as their association with clinical severity and transmissibility, respectively. RESULT: Among local cases, 268 (10.2%) had a prolonged incubation period of > 14 days, which was more frequently seen among elderly patients, those residing in South China, with disease onset after Level I response measures administration, or being exposed in public places. Patients with prolonged incubation period had lower risk of severe illness (ORadjusted = 0.386, 95% CI: 0.203-0.677). A reduced transmissibility was observed for the primary patients with prolonged incubation period (50.4, 95% CI: 32.3-78.6%) than those with an incubation period of ≤14 days. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides evidence supporting a prolonged incubation period that exceeded 2 weeks in over 10% for COVID-19. Longer monitoring periods than 14 days for quarantine or persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2 should be justified in extreme cases, especially for those elderly.

Epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and its implication for infectivity among patients in China, 1 January to 11 February 2020.

BackgroundThe natural history of disease in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remained obscure during the early pandemic.AimOur objective was to estimate epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and assess the relative infectivity of the incubation period.MethodsWe estimated the distributions of four epidemiological parameters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using a large database of COVID-19 cases and potential transmission pairs of cases, and assessed their heterogeneity by demographics, epidemic phase and geographical region. We further calculated the time of peak infectivity and quantified the proportion of secondary infections during the incubation period.ResultsThe median incubation period was 7.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.9‒7.5) days. The median serial and generation intervals were similar, 4.7 (95% CI: 4.2‒5.3) and 4.6 (95% CI: 4.2‒5.1) days, respectively. Paediatric cases < 18 years had a longer incubation period than adult age groups (p = 0.007). The median incubation period increased from 4.4 days before 25 January to 11.5 days after 31 January (p < 0.001), whereas the median serial (generation) interval contracted from 5.9 (4.8) days before 25 January to 3.4 (3.7) days after. The median time from symptom onset to discharge was also shortened from 18.3 before 22 January to 14.1 days after. Peak infectivity occurred 1 day before symptom onset on average, and the incubation period accounted for 70% of transmission.ConclusionThe high infectivity during the incubation period led to short generation and serial intervals, necessitating aggressive control measures such as early case finding and quarantine of close contacts.

Transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease and intervention effectiveness in Sierra Leone.

Sierra Leone is the most severely affected country by an unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa. Although successfully contained, the transmission dynamics of EVD and the impact of interventions in the country remain unclear. We established a database of confirmed and suspected EVD cases from May 2014 to September 2015 in Sierra Leone and mapped the spatiotemporal distribution of cases at the chiefdom level. A Poisson transmission model revealed that the transmissibility at the chiefdom level, estimated as the average number of secondary infections caused by a patient per week, was reduced by 43% [95% confidence interval (CI): 30%, 52%] after October 2014, when the strategic plan of the United Nations Mission for Emergency Ebola Response was initiated, and by 65% (95% CI: 57%, 71%) after the end of December 2014, when 100% case isolation and safe burials were essentially achieved, both compared with before October 2014. Population density, proximity to Ebola treatment centers, cropland coverage, and atmospheric temperature were associated with EVD transmission. The household secondary attack rate (SAR) was estimated to be 0.059 (95% CI: 0.050, 0.070) for the overall outbreak. The household SAR was reduced by 82%, from 0.093 to 0.017, after the nationwide campaign to achieve 100% case isolation and safe burials had been conducted. This study provides a complete overview of the transmission dynamics of the 2014-2015 EVD outbreak in Sierra Leone at both chiefdom and household levels. The interventions implemented in Sierra Leone seem effective in containing the epidemic, particularly in interrupting household transmission.

Avian Influenza A Virus Infection among Workers at Live Poultry Markets, China, 2013-2016.

We conducted a 3-year longitudinal serologic survey on an open cohort of poultry workers, swine workers, and general population controls to assess avian influenza A virus (AIV) seroprevalence and seroincidence and virologic diversity at live poultry markets (LPMs) in Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, China. Of 964 poultry workers, 9 (0.93%) were seropositive for subtype H7N9 virus, 18 (1.87%) for H9N2, and 18 (1.87%) for H5N1. Of 468 poultry workers followed longitudinally, 2 (0.43%), 13 (2.78%), and 7 (1.5%) seroconverted, respectively; incidence was 1.27, 8.28, and 4.46/1,000 person-years for H7N9, H9N2, and H5N1 viruses, respectively. Longitudinal surveillance of AIVs at 9 LPMs revealed high co-circulation of H9, H7, and H5 subtypes. We detected AIVs in 726 (23.3%) of 3,121 samples and identified a high diversity (10 subtypes) of new genetic constellations and reassortant viruses. These data suggest that stronger surveillance for AIVs within LPMs and high-risk populations is imperative.