RESUMO
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) is a coronavirus-caused viral respiratory infection initially detected in Saudi Arabia in 2012. In UAE, high seroprevalence (97.1) of MERS-CoV in camels was reported in several Emirate of Abu Dhabi studies, including camels in zoos, public escorts, and slaughterhouses. The objectives of this research include simulation of MERS-CoV spread using a customized animal disease spread model (i.e., customized stochastic model for the UAE; analyzing the MERS-CoV spread and prevalence based on camels age groups and identifying the optimum control MERS-CoV strategy. This study found that controlling animal mobility is the best management technique for minimizing epidemic length and the number of affected farms. This study also found that disease dissemination differs amongst camels of three ages: camel kids under the age of one, young camels aged one to four, and adult camels aged four and up; because of their immunological state, kids, as well as adults, had greater infection rates. To save immunization costs, it is advised that certain age groups be targeted and that intense ad hoc unexpected vaccinations be avoided. According to the study, choosing the best technique must consider both efficacy and cost.
RESUMO
Global awareness of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has heightened the importance and role of food systems' transformation in accelerating countries' progress to achieve such goals in a timely manner. The agricultural and food systems' transformation goal is to build resilience to vulnerabilities, shocks, and diseases such as undernourishment and obesity. The objective of this study is to specify the agricultural and food systems' factors that contribute to reducing the impacts of undernourishment and obesity in selected populous and high-income countries. This study used panel data from 2000 to 2020, applying fixed and random-effect econometrics models to conduct the analyses. Results indicated that the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), level of urbanization, and flood losses at food retail from a food systems perspective were the most influential factors in the prevalence of undernourishment. Meanwhile, the supply of fatty food was the significant nutrition variable affecting undernourishment. The cereal import dependency, per capita GDP, percentage of food imports from the value of food export, and value of domestic food production factors were the influential food system variables affecting the prevalence of obesity. Cereal import dependency and dietary energy supply are the significant factors affecting the prevalence of obesity. This study recommended a set of policy actions to address malnutrition, including sustainable and balanced food and nutrition systems' transformation, food trade openness, and efforts to reduce adversary impacts of urbanization.
RESUMO
Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important infectious viral disease of domestic small ruminants that threatens the food security and sustainable livelihood of farmers across Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The objective of this research is to analyze the disease's spread and its impacts on direct government costs through conducting three simulations of different control strategies to reduce and quickly eradicate PPR from the United Arab Emirates in the near future. A Modified Animal Disease Spread Model was developed in this study to suit the conditions of the United Arab Emirates. The initial scenario represents when mass vaccination is ceased, and moderate movement restrictions are applied. The second scenario is based on mass vaccination and stamping out the disease, whereas the third simulation scenario assumes mass and ring vaccination when needed, very strict movement control, and stamping out. This study found that the third scenario is the most effective in controlling and eradicating PPR from the UAE. The outbreak duration in days was reduced by 57% and the number of infected animals by 77% when compared to the other scenarios. These results are valuable to the country's animal health decision-makers and the government's efforts to report to the World Animal Health Organization (OIE) regarding the progress made towards declaration of the disease's eradication. They are also useful to other concerned entities in other Middle Eastern, North African, and Asian countries where the disease is spreading.