Pregnancy in teenagers diagnosed with type 1 diabetes mellitus in childhood: a national population-based e-cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to describe the characteristics and outcomes of pregnancies in a national cohort of teenage (<20 years) and young adult women (≥20 years) with and without childhood-onset (<15 years) type 1 diabetes. We hypothesised that, owing to poor glycaemic control during the teenage years, pregnancy outcomes would be poorer in teenage mothers with type 1 diabetes than young adult mothers with type 1 diabetes and mothers without diabetes. METHODS: The Brecon Register of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes diagnosed in Wales since 1995 was linked to population-based datasets in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank, creating an electronic cohort (e-cohort) of legal births (live or stillbirths beyond 24 weeks' gestation) to women aged less than 35 years between 1995 and 2013 in Wales. Teenage pregnancy rates were calculated based on the number of females in the same birth cohort in Wales. Pregnancy outcomes, including pre-eclampsia, preterm birth, low birthweight, macrosomia, congenital malformations, stillbirths and hospital admissions during the first year of life, were obtained from electronic records for the whole Welsh population. We used logistic and negative binomial regression to compare outcomes among teenage and young adult mothers with and without type 1 diabetes. RESULTS: A total of 197,796 births were eligible for inclusion, including 330 to girls and women with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes, of whom 68 were teenagers (age 14-19 years, mean 17.9 years) and 262 were young adults (age 20-32 years, mean 24.0 years). The mean duration of diabetes was 14.3 years (9.7 years for teenagers; 15.5 years for young adults). Pregnancy rates were lower in teenagers with type 1 diabetes than in teenagers without diabetes (mean annual teenage pregnancy rate between 1999 and 2013: 8.6 vs 18.0 per 1000 teenage girls, respectively; p < 0.001). In the background population, teenage pregnancy was associated with deprivation (p < 0.001), but this was not the case for individuals with type 1 diabetes (p = 0.85). Glycaemic control was poor in teenage and young adult mothers with type 1 diabetes (mean HbA1c based on closest value to conception: 81.3 and 80.2 mmol/mol [9.6% and 9.5%], respectively, p = 0.78). Glycaemic control improved during pregnancy in both groups but to a greater degree in young adults, who had significantly better glycaemic control than teenagers by the third trimester (mean HbA1c: 54.0 vs 67.4 mmol/mol [7.1% vs 8.3%], p = 0.01). All adverse outcomes were more common among mothers with type 1 diabetes than mothers without diabetes. Among those with type 1 diabetes, hospital admissions during the first year of life were more common among babies of teenage vs young adult mothers (adjusted OR 5.91 [95% CI 2.63, 13.25]). Other outcomes were no worse among teenage mothers with type 1 diabetes than among young adult mothers with diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Teenage girls with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes in Wales are less likely to have children than teenage girls without diabetes. Teenage pregnancy in girls with type 1 diabetes, unlike in the background population, is not associated with social deprivation. In our cohort, glycaemic control was poor in both teenage and young adult mothers with type 1 diabetes. Pregnancy outcomes were comparable between teenage and young adult mothers with type 1 diabetes, but hospital admissions during the first year of life were five times more common among babies of teenage mothers with type 1 diabetes than those of young adult mothers with diabetes.

Improving mental health through neighbourhood regeneration: the role of cohesion, belonging, quality and disorder.

Poor mental health has been associated with socioeconomic deprivation. The aim was to describe possible mechanisms underpinning the narrowing of mental health inequalities demonstrated by Communities First, an area-wide regeneration programme in Wales, UK. Propensity score matched data from the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Electronic Cohort Study, assessed changes in mental health, neighbourhood-level social cohesion, belongingness, quality and disorder. A multiple mediation analysis found c.76% of the total indirect effect was accounted for by neighbourhood quality and disorder. Targeted regeneration that increases neighbourhood quality and reduced neighbourhood disorder could mitigate the mental health inequalities associated with socioeconomic deprivation.

Mild-to-moderate renal pelvis dilatation identified during pregnancy and hospital admissions in childhood: An electronic birth cohort study in Wales, UK.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing contributor to the global burden of noncommunicable diseases. Early diagnosis and treatment can reduce the severity of kidney damage and the need for dialysis or transplantation. It is not known whether mild-to-moderate renal pelvis dilatation (RPD) identified at 18-20 weeks gestation is an early indicator of renal pathology. The aim of this follow-up to the Welsh Study of Mothers and Babies was to assess the risk of hospital admission in children with mild-to-moderate antenatal RPD compared with children without this finding. We also examined how the natural history of the RPD (whether the dilatation persists in later pregnancy or postpartum) or its characteristics (unilateral versus bilateral) changed the risk of hospital admission. METHODS/FINDINGS: This population-based cohort study included singleton babies born in Wales between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011 (n = 22,045). We linked ultrasound scan data to routinely available data on hospital admissions from the Patient Episode Database for Wales (PEDW). The outcome was a hospital admission for urinary tract causes (defined by an expert study steering group) in the first three years of life. We used Cox regression to model time to first hospital admission, according to whether there was evidence of RPD at the fetal anomaly scan (FAS) and/or evidence of dilatation in later investigations, adjusting for other predictors of admission. We used multiple imputation with chained equations to impute values for missing data. We included 21,239 children in the analysis. The risk of at least one hospital admission was seven times greater in those with RPD (n = 138) compared with those without (n = 21,101, conditional hazard ratio [cHR] 7.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.31-12.15, p < 0.001). The risk of hospital admission was higher in children with RPD at the FAS and later dilatation (cHR 25.13, 95% CI 13.26-47.64, p < 0.001) and in children without RPD at the FAS who had later dilatation (cHR 62.06, 95% CI 41.10-93.71, p < 0.001) than in children without RPD (n = 21,057). Among children with RPD at the FAS but no dilatation in later pregnancy or postpartum, we did not find an association with hospital admissions (cHR 2.16, 95% CI 0.69-6.75, p = 0.185), except when the initial dilatation was bilateral (cHR 4.77, 95% CI 1.17-19.47, p = 0.029). Limitations of the study include small numbers in subgroups (meaning that these results should be interpreted with caution), that less severe outcomes (such as urinary tract infections [UTIs] managed in the community or in outpatients) could not be included in our analysis, and that obtaining records of radiological investigations later in pregnancy and postpartum was challenging. Our conclusions were consistent after conducting sensitivity analyses to account for some of these limitations. CONCLUSIONS: In this large population-based study, children with RPD at the FAS had higher rates of hospital admissions when there was persistent dilatation in later pregnancy or postpartum. Our results can be used to improve counselling of parents and develop care pathways for antenatal screening programmes, including protocols for reporting and further investigation of RPD.

Improving Mental Health Through the Regeneration of Deprived Neighborhoods: A Natural Experiment.

Neighborhood-level interventions provide an opportunity to better understand the impact of neighborhoods on health. In 2001, the Welsh Government, United Kingdom, funded Communities First, a program of neighborhood regeneration delivered to the 100 most deprived of the 881 electoral wards in Wales. In this study, we examined the association between neighborhood regeneration and mental health. Information on regeneration activities in 35 intervention areas (n = 4,197 subjects) and 75 control areas (n = 6,695 subjects) was linked to data on mental health from a cohort study with assessments made in 2001 (before regeneration) and 2008 (after regeneration). Propensity score matching was used to estimate the change in mental health in intervention neighborhoods versus control neighborhoods. Baseline differences between intervention and control areas were of similar magnitude as produced by paired randomization of neighborhoods. Regeneration was associated with an improvement in the mental health of residents in intervention areas compared with control neighborhoods (ß = 1.54, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 2.59), suggesting a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in mental health. There was a dose-response relationship between length of residence in regeneration neighborhoods and improvements in mental health (P-trend = 0.05). These results show that targeted regeneration of deprived neighborhoods can improve mental health.

Prevalence of defined ultrasound findings of unknown significance at the second trimester fetal anomaly scan and their association with adverse pregnancy outcomes: the Welsh study of mothers and babies population-based cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this article was to estimate the population prevalence of seven defined ultrasound findings of uncertain significance ('markers') in the second trimester and the associated risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHOD: A prospective record-linked cohort study of 30 078 pregnant women who had second trimester anomaly scans between July 2008 and March 2011 in Wales was conducted. RESULTS: The prevalence of markers ranged from 43.7 per 1000 singleton pregnancies for cardiac echogenic foci [95% confidence interval (CI): 38.8, 51.1] to 0.6 for mild-to-moderate ventriculomegaly (95% CI: 0.3, 1.0). Isolated echogenic bowel was associated with an increased risk of congenital anomalies [risk ratio (RR) 4.54, 95% CI: 2.12, 9.73] and preterm birth (RR 2.30, 95% CI: 1.08, 4.90). Isolated pelvicalyceal dilatation was associated with an increased risk of congenital anomalies (RR 3.82, 95% CI: 2.16, 6.77). Multiple markers were associated with an increased risk of congenital anomalies (RR 5.00, 95% CI: 1.35, 18.40) and preterm birth (RR 3.38, 95% CI 1.20, 9.53). CONCLUSIONS: These data are useful for counselling families and developing clinical guidance and care pathways following the detection of markers in clinical practice, particularly the need for follow-up scans to monitor placental function and growth in pregnancies with isolated echogenic bowel, and further investigation for multiple markers. © 2015 The Authors. Prenatal Diagnosis published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Case-finding for common mental disorders of anxiety and depression in primary care: an external validation of routinely collected data.

BACKGROUND: The robustness of epidemiological research using routinely collected primary care electronic data to support policy and practice for common mental disorders (CMD) anxiety and depression would be greatly enhanced by appropriate validation of diagnostic codes and algorithms for data extraction. We aimed to create a robust research platform for CMD using population-based, routinely collected primary care electronic data. METHODS: We developed a set of Read code lists (diagnosis, symptoms, treatments) for the identification of anxiety and depression in the General Practice Database (GPD) within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank at Swansea University, and assessed 12 algorithms for Read codes to define cases according to various criteria. Annual incidence rates were calculated per 1000 person years at risk (PYAR) to assess recording practice for these CMD between January 1(st) 2000 and December 31(st) 2009. We anonymously linked the 2799 MHI-5 Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Survey (CHSNS) respondents aged 18 to 74 years to their routinely collected GP data in SAIL. We estimated the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of the various algorithms using the MHI-5 as the gold standard. RESULTS: The incidence of combined depression/anxiety diagnoses remained stable over the ten-year period in a population of over 500,000 but symptoms increased from 6.5 to 20.7 per 1000 PYAR. A 'historical' GP diagnosis for depression/anxiety currently treated plus a current diagnosis (treated or untreated) resulted in a specificity of 0.96, sensitivity 0.29 and PPV 0.76. Adding current symptom codes improved sensitivity (0.32) with a marginal effect on specificity (0.95) and PPV (0.74). CONCLUSIONS: We have developed an algorithm with a high specificity and PPV of detecting cases of anxiety and depression from routine GP data that incorporates symptom codes to reflect GP coding behaviour. We have demonstrated that using diagnosis and current treatment alone to identify cases for depression and anxiety using routinely collected primary care data will miss a number of true cases given changes in GP recording behaviour. The Read code lists plus the developed algorithms will be applicable to other routinely collected primary care datasets, creating a platform for future e-cohort research into these conditions.

Childhood sleeping difficulties and depression in adulthood: the 1970 British Cohort Study.

Sleeping difficulties in childhood have been associated with an increased risk of depression in adult life, but existing studies have not accounted for comorbid maternal sleeping difficulties and depression. This study aimed to determine the association between childhood sleeping difficulties and depression in adulthood after adjusting for the potential confounding influences of maternal depression and sleeping difficulties. Data from the British Cohort Study 1970, a prospective birth cohort with 30 years of follow-up (1975-2005) were used. At 5 years of age, 7437 parents of participants recorded information on whether their child had sleeping difficulties, the frequency of bed-wetting, nightmares, maternal depression and sleep difficulties. At 34 years of age, participants reported whether or not they had received medical treatment for depression in the past year. Parental reports of severe sleeping difficulties at 5 years were associated with an increased risk of depression at age 34 years [odds ratio (OR) = 1.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2, 3.2] whereas moderate sleeping difficulties were not (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 0.9, 1.3). In conclusion, severe sleeping problems in childhood may be associated with increased susceptibility to depression in adult life.

Neighbourhood green space, physical function and participation in physical activities among elderly men: the Caerphilly Prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The built environment in which older people live plays an important role in promoting or inhibiting physical activity. Most work on this complex relationship between physical activity and the environment has excluded people with reduced physical function or ignored the difference between groups with different levels of physical function. This study aims to explore the role of neighbourhood green space in determining levels of participation in physical activity among elderly men with different levels of lower extremity physical function. METHOD: Using data collected from the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS) and green space data collected from high resolution Landmap true colour aerial photography, we first investigated the effect of the quantity of neighbourhood green space and the variation in neighbourhood vegetation on participation in physical activity for 1,010 men aged 66 and over in Caerphilly county borough, Wales, UK. Second, we explored whether neighbourhood green space affects groups with different levels of lower extremity physical function in different ways. RESULTS: Increasing percentage of green space within a 400 meters radius buffer around the home was significantly associated with more participation in physical activity after adjusting for lower extremity physical function, psychological distress, general health, car ownership, age group, marital status, social class, education level and other environmental factors (OR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.05, 1.41). A statistically significant interaction between the variation in neighbourhood vegetation and lower extremity physical function was observed (OR = 1.92, 95% CI 1.12, 3.28). CONCLUSION: Elderly men living in neighbourhoods with more green space have higher levels of participation in regular physical activity. The association between variation in neighbourhood vegetation and regular physical activity varied according to lower extremity physical function. Subjects reporting poor lower extremity physical function living in neighbourhoods with more homogeneous vegetation (i.e. low variation) were more likely to participate in regular physical activity than those living in neighbourhoods with less homogeneous vegetation (i.e. high variation). Good lower extremity physical function reduced the adverse effect of high variation vegetation on participation in regular physical activity. This provides a basis for the future development of novel interventions that aim to increase levels of physical activity in later life, and has implications for planning policy to design, preserve, facilitate and encourage the use of green space near home.

The Welsh study of mothers and babies: protocol for a population-based cohort study to investigate the clinical significance of defined ultrasound findings of uncertain significance.

BACKGROUND: Improvement in ultrasound imaging has led to the identification of subtle non-structural markers during the 18 - 20 week fetal anomaly scan, such as echogenic bowel, mild cerebral ventriculomegaly, renal pelvicalyceal dilatation, and nuchal thickening. These markers are estimated to occur in between 0.6% and 4.3% of pregnancies. Their clinical significance, for pregnancy outcomes or childhood morbidity, is largely unknown. The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence of seven markers in the general obstetric population and establish a cohort of children for longer terms follow-up to assess the clinical significance of these markers. METHODS/DESIGN: All women receiving antenatal care within six of seven Welsh Health Boards who had an 18 to 20 week ultrasound scan in Welsh NHS Trusts between July 2008 and March 2011 were eligible for inclusion. Data were collected on seven markers (echogenic bowel, cerebral ventriculomegaly, renal pelvicalyceal dilatation, nuchal thickening, cardiac echogenic foci, choroid plexus cysts, and short femur) at the time of 18 - 20 week fetal anomaly scan. Ultrasound records were linked to routinely collected data on pregnancy outcomes (work completed during 2012 and 2013). Images were stored and reviewed by an expert panel.The prevalence of each marker (reported and validated) will be estimated. A projected sample size of 23,000 will allow the prevalence of each marker to be estimated with the following precision: a marker with 0.50% prevalence to within 0.10%; a marker with 1.00% prevalence to within 0.13%; and a marker with 4.50% prevalence to within 0.27%. The relative risk of major congenital abnormalities, stillbirths, pre-term birth and small for gestational age, given the presence of a validated marker, will be reported. DISCUSSION: This is a large, prospective study designed to estimate the prevalence of markers in a population-based cohort of pregnant women and to investigate associations with adverse pregnancy outcomes. The study will also establish a cohort of children that can be followed-up to explore associations between specific markers and longer-term health and social outcomes.

Measuring the impact of spatial network layout on community social cohesion: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: There is now a substantial body of research suggesting that social cohesion, a collective characteristic measured by the levels of trust, reciprocity and formation of strong social bonds within communities, is an important factor in determining health. Of particular interest is the extent to which factors in the built environment facilitate, or impede, the development of social bonds. Severance is a characteristic of physical environments which is hypothesized to inhibit cohesion. In the current study we test a number of characteristics of spatial networks which could be hypothesized to relate either to severance, or directly to community cohesion. Particular focus is given to our most promising variable for further analysis (Convex Hull Maximum Radius 600 m). METHODS: In the current study we analysed social cohesion as measured at Enumeration District level, aggregated from a survey of 10,892 individuals aged 18 to 74 years in the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Cohort Study, 2001. In a data mining process we test 16 network variables on multiple scales. The variable showing the most promise is validated in a test on an independent data set. We then conduct a multivariate regression also including Townsend deprivation scores and urban/rural status as predictor variables for social cohesion. RESULTS: We find convex hull maximum radius at a 600 m scale to have a small but highly significant correlation with social cohesion on both data sets. Deprivation has a stronger effect. Splitting the analysis by tertile of deprivation, we find that the effect of severance as measured by this variable is strongest in the most deprived areas. A range of spatial scales are tested, with the strongest effects being observed at scales that match typical walking distances. CONCLUSION: We conclude that physical connectivity as measured in this paper has a significant effect on social cohesion, and that our measure is unlikely to proxy either deprivation or the urban/rural status of communities. Possible mechanisms for the effect include intrinsic navigability of areas, and the existence of a focal route on which people can meet on foot. Further investigation may lead to much stronger predictive models of social cohesion.

Common mental disorders, neighbourhood income inequality and income deprivation: small-area multilevel analysis.

BACKGROUND: Common mental disorders are more prevalent in areas of high neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation but whether the prevalence varies with neighbourhood income inequality is not known. AIMS: To investigate the hypothesis that the interaction between small-area income deprivation and income inequality was associated with individual mental health. METHOD: Multilevel analysis of population data from the Welsh Health Survey, 2003/04-2010. A total of 88,623 respondents aged 18-74 years were nested within 50,587 households within 1887 lower super output areas (neighbourhoods) and 22 unitary authorities (regions), linked to the Gini coefficient (income inequality) and the per cent of households living in poverty (income deprivation). Mental health was measured using the Mental Health Inventory MHI-5 as a discrete variable and as a 'case' of common mental disorder. RESULTS: High neighbourhood income inequality was associated with better mental health in low-deprivation neighbourhoods after adjusting for individual and household risk factors (parameter estimate +0.70 (s.e. = 0.33), P = 0.036; odds ratio (OR) for common mental disorder case 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.97). Income inequality at regional level was significantly associated with poorer mental health (parameter estimate -1.35 (s.e. = 0.54), P = 0.012; OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.04-1.22). CONCLUSIONS: The associations between common mental disorders, income inequality and income deprivation are complex. Income inequality at neighbourhood level is less important than income deprivation as a risk factor for common mental disorders. The adverse effect of income inequality starts to operate at the larger regional level.

Change in alcohol outlet density and alcohol-related harm to population health (CHALICE).

BACKGROUND: Excess alcohol consumption has serious adverse effects on health and violence-related harm. In the UK around 37% of men and 29% of women drink to excess and 20% and 13% report binge drinking. The potential impact on population health from a reduction in consumption is considerable. One proposed method to reduce consumption is to reduce availability through controls on alcohol outlet density. In this study we investigate the impact of a change in the density of alcohol outlets on alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harms to health in the community. METHODS/DESIGN: A natural experiment of the effect of change in outlet density between 2005-09, in Wales, UK; population 2.4 million aged 16 years and over. Data on outlets are held by the 22 local authorities in Wales under The Licensing Act 2003. The study outcomes are change in (1) alcohol consumption using data from annual Welsh Health Surveys, (2) alcohol-related hospital admissions using the Patient Episode Database for Wales, (3) Accident & Emergency department attendances between midnight-6am, and (4) alcohol-related violent crime against the person, using Police data. The data will be anonymously record-linked within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank at individual and 2001 Census Lower Super Output Area levels. New methods of network analysis will be used to estimate outlet density. Longitudinal statistical analysis will use (1) multilevel ordinal models of consumption and logistic models of admissions and Accident & Emergency attendance as a function of change in individual outlet exposure, adjusting for confounding variables, and (2) spatial models of the change in counts/rates of each outcome measure and outlet density. We will assess the impact on health inequalities and will correct for population migration. DISCUSSION: This inter-disciplinary study requires expertise in epidemiology and public health, health informatics, medical statistics, geographical information science, and research into alcohol-related violence. Information governance requirements for the use of record-linked data have been approved together with formal data access agreements for the use of the Welsh Health Survey and Police data. The dissemination strategy will include policy makers in national and local government. Public engagement will be through the Clinical Research Collaboration-Cymru "Involving People" network, which will provide input into the implementation of the research.

Visualisation and optimisation of alcohol-related hospital admissions ICD-10 codes in Welsh e-cohort data.

INTRODUCTION: The excessive consumption of alcohol is detrimental to long term health and increases the likelihood of hospital admission. However, definitions of alcohol-related hospital admission vary, giving rise to uncertainty in the effect of alcohol on alcohol-related health care utilization. OBJECTIVES: To compare diagnostic codes on hospital admission and discharge and to determine the ideal combination of codes necessary for an accurate determination of alcohol-related hospital admission. METHODS: Routine population-linked e-cohort data were extracted from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank containing all alcohol-related hospital admissions (n,= 92,553) from 2006 to 2011 in Wales, United Kingdom. The distributions of the diagnostic codes recorded at admission and discharge were compared. By calculating a misclassification rate (sensitivity-like measure) the appropriate number of coding fields to examine for alcohol-codes was established. RESULTS: There was agreement between admission and discharge codes. When more than ten coding fields were used the misclassification rate was less than 1%. CONCLUSION: With the data at present and alcohol-related codes used, codes recorded at admission and discharge can be used equivalently to identify alcohol-related admissions. The appropriate number of coding fields to examine was established: fewer than ten is likely to lead to under-reporting of alcohol-related admissions. The methods developed here can be applied to other medical conditions that can be described using a certain set of diagnostic codes, each of which can be a known sole cause of the condition and recorded in multiple positions in e-cohort data.

Epidemiology of alcohol-related emergency hospital admissions in children and adolescents: An e-cohort analysis in Wales in 2006-2011.

OBJECTIVE: Harmful levels of alcohol consumption in young people are prevalent and of increasing public concern in the western world. Rates of alcohol-related emergency hospital admissions in children and young people between 10 to 17 years were described, and the reasons for these admissions and their association with socio-demographic factors were examined. METHODS: E-cohort data were extracted from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, which contained alcohol-related emergency hospital admissions (N = 2968) from 2006 to 2011 in children and adolescents aged 10 to 17 years in Wales. A generalised linear mixed model was fitted using a log-link with a population offset to the data to calculate incident rate ratios (IRRSs). RESULTS: There was a general decreasing trend from 2006 to 2011 in the number and rate of alcohol-related emergency hospital admissions; the mean age of admission was 15.4 (standard deviation 1.4) years. In each of the four youngest age groups (10-13,14,15,16 years), females had higher IRRs than males. Males had slightly higher IRR compared to females only in the oldest age group (17 years). IRRs increased with increasing deprivation. The majority (92%) of the admissions lasted one day and most of the admissions (70%) occured during the last three days of the week with a peak on Saturday. The length of stay in hospital was longer in cases when self-harm were present. Multiple admissions showed high prevalance of serious self-harm cases in females. The number of admissions with injuries and falls were higher for males than females. CONCLUSION: Female children and adolescents were more likely to be admitted to hospital for alcohol-related reasons. These data illustrate the significant burden of alcohol-related harm in young people and highlight the need for interventions and policies that promote safe drinking practices among young people to prevent future alcohol-related harm during the life-course.

The role of health and social factors in education outcome: A record-linked electronic birth cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Health status in childhood is correlated with educational outcomes. Emergency hospital admissions during childhood are common but it is not known how these unplanned breaks from schooling impact on education outcomes. We hypothesised that children who had emergency hospital admissions had an increased risk of lower educational attainment, in addition to the increased risks associated with other health, social and school factors. METHODS: This record-linked electronic birth cohort, included children born in Wales between 1 January 1998 and 31 August 2001. We fitted multilevel logistic regression models grouped by schools, to determine whether emergency hospital inpatient admission before age 7 years was associated with the educational outcome of not attaining the expected level in a teacher-based assessment at age 7 years (KS1). We adjusted for pregnancy, perinatal, socio-economic, neighbourhood, pupil mobility and school-level factors. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 64 934 children. Overall, 4680 (7.2%) did not attain the expected educational level. Emergency admission to hospital was associated with poor educational attainment (OR 1.12 95% Credible Interval (CI) 1.05, 1.20 for all causes during childhood, OR 1.19 95%CI 1.07, 1.32 for injuries and external causes and OR 1.31 95%CI 1.04, 1.22 for admissions during infancy), after adjusting for known determinants of education outcomes such as extreme prematurity, being small for gestational age and socio-economic indicators, such as eligibility for free school meals. CONCLUSION: Emergency inpatient hospital admission during childhood, particularly during infancy or for injuries and external causes was associated with an increased risk of lower education attainment at age 7 years, in addition to the effects of pregnancy factors (gestational age, birthweight) and social deprivation. These findings support the need for injury prevention measures and additional support in school for affected children to help them to achieve their potential.

Evaluating cutpoints for the MHI-5 and MCS using the GHQ-12: a comparison of five different methods.

BACKGROUND: The Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5) and the Mental Health Component Summary score (MCS) derived from the Short Form 36 (SF-36) instrument are well validated and reliable scales. A drawback of their construction is that neither has a clinically validated cutpoint to define a case of common mental disorder (CMD). This paper aims to produce cutpoints for the MHI-5 and MCS by comparison with the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). METHODS: Data were analysed from wave 9 of the British Household Panel Survey (2000), providing a sample size of 14,669 individuals. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the scales and define cutpoints for the MHI-5 and MCS, using the following optimisation criteria: the Youden Index, the point closest to (0,1) on the ROC curve, minimising the misclassification rate, the minimax method, and prevalence matching. RESULTS: For the MHI-5, the Youden Index and the (0,1) methods both gave a cutpoint of 76, minimising the misclassification rate gave a cutpoint of 60 and the minimax method and prevalence matching gave a cutpoint of 68. For the MCS, the Youden Index and the (0,1) methods gave cutpoints of 51.7 and 52.1 respectively, minimising the error rate gave a cutpoint of 44.8 and both the minimax method and prevalence matching gave a cutpoint of 48.9. The correlation between the MHI-5 and the MCS was 0.88. CONCLUSION: The Youden Index and (0,1) methods are most suitable for determining a cutpoint for the MHI-5, since they are least dependent on population prevalence. The choice of method is dependent on the intended application. The MHI-5 performs remarkably well against the longer MCS.

Neighbourhood deprivation and self-rated health: the role of perceptions of the neighbourhood and of housing problems.

It has been known for a long time that people living in socially and economically deprived neighbourhoods generally experience poorer health. However, it is often not clear what processes underlie the relationship between neighbourhood deprivation and individual health. In this study we explore the association between neighbourhood socio-economic status and self-rated health using the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Survey (n=10,892). We found that the association between neighbourhood deprivation and self-rated health was substantially reduced after adjusting for individual socio-economic status, but remained statistically significant. This suggests that the health effects of neighbourhood deprivation are partly contextual. We also found that the association between neighbourhood deprivation and self-rated health was further attenuated when controlling for perceptions of the neighbourhood and of housing problems, suggesting that these variables may play a role in mediating the health effects of neighbourhood deprivation. The implications of the results are that health policy should target 'places' as well as 'people'; and that policies aimed at improving the quality of housing, access to amenities, neighbourhood safety, and social cohesion may help to reduce health inequalities.

Risk of suicide following an alcohol-related emergency hospital admission: An electronic cohort study of 2.8 million people.

OBJECTIVE: Alcohol misuse is a well-known risk factor for suicide however, the relationship between alcohol-related hospital admission and subsequent risk of death from suicide is unknown. We aimed to determine the risk of death from suicide following emergency admission to hospital with an alcohol-related cause. METHODS: We established an electronic cohort study of all 2,803,457 residents of Wales, UK, aged from 10 to under 100 years on 1 January 2006 with six years' follow-up. The outcome event was death from suicide defined as intentional self-harm (ICD-10 X60-84) or undetermined intent (Y10-34). The main exposure was an alcohol-related admission defined as a 'wholly attributable' ICD-10 alcohol code in the admission record. Admissions were coded for the presence or absence of co-existing psychiatric morbidity. The analysis was by Cox regression with adjustments for confounding variables within the dataset. RESULTS: During the study follow-up period, there were 15,546,355 person years at risk with 28,425 alcohol-related emergency admissions and 1562 suicides. 125 suicides followed an admission (144.6 per 100,000 person years), of which 11 (9%) occurred within 4 weeks of discharge. The overall adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for suicide following admission was 26.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 18.8 to 38.3), in men HR 9.83 (95% CI 7.91 to 12.2) and women HR 28.5 (95% CI 19.9 to 41.0). The risk of suicide remained substantial in subjects without known co-existing psychiatric morbidity: HR men 8.11 (95% CI 6.30 to 10.4) and women HR 24.0 (95% CI 15.5 to 37.3). The analysis was limited by the absence in datasets of potentially important confounding variables and the lack of information on alcohol-related harm and psychiatric morbidity in subjects not admitted to hospital. CONCLUSION: Emergency alcohol-related hospital admission is associated with an increased risk of suicide. Identifying individuals in hospital provides an opportunity for psychosocial assessment and suicide prevention of a targeted at-risk group before their discharge to the community.

Socioeconomic inequality in medication persistence in primary and secondary prevention of coronary heart disease - A population-wide electronic cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England fell by 36% between 2000 and 2007 and it is estimated that approximately 50% of the fall was due to improved treatment uptake. Marked socio-economic inequalities in CHD mortality in the United Kingdom (UK) remain, with higher age-adjusted rates in more deprived groups. Inequalities in the persistence of medication for primary and secondary prevention of CHD may contribute to the observed social gradient and we investigated this possibility in the population of Wales (UK). METHODS AND FINDINGS: An electronic cohort of individuals aged over 20 (n = 1,199,342) in Wales (UK) was formed using linked data from primary and secondary care and followed for six years (2004-2010). We identified indications for medication (statins, aspirin, ACE inhibitors, clopidogrel) recommended in UK National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidance for CHD (high risk, stable angina, stable angina plus diabetes, unstable angina, and myocardial infarction) and measured the persistence of indicated medication (time from initiation to discontinuation) across quintiles of the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation, an area-based measure of socio-economic inequality, using Cox regression frailty models. In models adjusted for demographic factors, CHD risk and comorbidities across 15 comparisons for persistence of the medications, none favoured the least deprived quintile, two favoured the most deprived quintile and 13 showed no significant differences. CONCLUSIONS: During our study period (2004-2010) we found no significant evidence of socio-economic inequality in the persistence of recommended medication for primary and secondary prevention of CHD.

Does selective migration alter socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Wales?: a record-linked total population e-cohort study.

Recent studies found evidence of health selective migration whereby healthy people move to less deprived areas and less healthy people move to or stay in more deprived areas. There is no consensus, however, on whether this influences health inequalities. Measures of socio-economic inequalities in mortality and life expectancy are widely used by government and health services to track changes over time but do not consider the effect of migration. This study aims to investigate whether and to what extent migration altered the observed socioeconomic gradient in mortality. Data for the population of Wales (3,136,881) registered with the National Health Service on 01/01/2006 and follow-up for 24 quarters were individually record-linked to ONS mortality files. This included moves between lower super output areas (LSOAs), deprivation quintiles and rural-urban class at each quarter, age, sex, and date of death. Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios for the deprivation quintiles in all-cause mortality, as well as deprivation change between the start and end of the study. We found evidence of health selective migration in some groups, for example people aged under 75 leaving the most deprived areas having a higher mortality risk than those they left behind, suggesting widening inequalities, but also found the opposite pattern for other migration groups. For all ages, those who lived in the most deprived quintile had a 57% higher risk of death than those in the least deprived quintile, allowing deprivation to vary with moves over time. There was little change in this risk when people were artificially kept in their deprivation quintile of origin (54% higher). Overall, migration during the six year window did not substantially alter the deprivation gradient in mortality in Wales between 2006 and 2011.