Structural Comparison of Substrate Binding Sites in Dehaloperoxidase A and B.

Dehalperoxidase (DHP) has diverse catalytic activities depending on the substrate binding conformation, pH, and dynamics in the distal pocket above the heme. According to our hypothesis, the molecular structure of the substrate and binding orientation in DHP guide enzymatic function. Enzyme kinetic studies have shown that the catalytic activity of DHP B is significantly higher than that of DHP A despite 96% sequence homology. There are more than 30 substrate-bound structures with DHP B, each providing insight into the nature of enzymatic binding at the active site. By contrast, the only X-ray crystallographic structures of small molecules in a complex with DHP A are phenols. This study is focused on investigating substrate binding in DHP A to compare with DHP B structures. Fifteen substrates were selected that were known to bind to DHP B in the crystal to test whether soaking substrates into DHP A would yield similar structures. Five of these substrates yielded X-ray crystal structures of substrate-bound DHP A, namely, 2,4-dichlorophenol (1.48 Å, PDB: 8EJN), 2,4-dibromophenol (1.52 Å, PDB: 8VSK), 4-nitrophenol (2.03 Å, PDB: 8VKC), 4-nitrocatechol (1.40 Å, PDB: 8VKD), and 4-bromo-o-cresol (1.64 Å, PDB: 8VZR). For the remaining substrates that bind to DHP B, such as cresols, 5-bromoindole, benzimidazole, 4,4-biphenol, 4.4-ethylidenebisphenol, 2,4-dimethoxyphenol, and guaiacol, the electron density maps in DHP A are not sufficient to determine the presence of the substrates, much less their orientation. In our hands, only phenols, 4-Br-o-cresol, and 4-nitrocatechol can be soaked into crystalline DHP A. None of the larger substrates were observed to bind. A minimum of seven hanging drops were selected for soaking with more than 50 crystals screened for each substrate. The five high-quality examples of direct comparison of modes of binding in DHP A and B for the same substrate provide further support for the hypothesis that the substrate-binding conformation determines the enzyme function of DHP.

Implantable cardioverter defibrillator and cardiac resynchronization treatment in people with type 2 diabetes: a comparison with age- and sex matched controls from the general population.

BACKGROUND: Increased risk of severe tachyarrhythmias is reported in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The aim of this study was to explore if treatment with cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) such as implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD), cardiac resynchronization therapy- pacemaker and -defibrillator (CRT-P/CRT-D) differed in patients with vs. without T2DM. A secondary aim was to identify patient characteristics indicating an increased CIED treatment. METHOD: 416 162 adult patients with T2DM from the Swedish National Diabetes Registry and 2 081 087 controls from the Swedish population, matched for age, sex and living area, were included between 1/1/1998 and 31/12/2012 and followed until 31/12/2013. They were compared regarding prevalence of ventricular tachycardia (VT) at baseline and the risk of receiving a CIED during follow-up. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to estimate the risk of CIED-treatment and factors identifying patients with such risk. RESULTS: Ventricular fibrillation (VF) (0.1% vs 0.0004%) and (VT) (0.2% vs. 0.1%) were more frequent among patients with T2DM compared to controls. CIED-treatment was significantly increased in patients with T2DM both in unadjusted and adjusted analyses. HR and 95% CI, after adjustment for sex, age, marital status, income, education, country of birth, coronary artery disease and congestive heart failure, were 1.32 [1.21-1.45] for ICD, 1.74 [1.55-1.95] for CRT-P and 1.69 [1.43-1.99] for CRT-D. Blood-pressure and lipid lowering therapies were independent risk factors associated to receiving CIED, while female sex was protective. CONCLUSIONS: Although the proportion of VT/VF was low, patients with T2DM had a higher prevalence of these conditions and increased risk for treatment with CIED compared to controls. This underlines the importance of recognizing that T2DM patients have an increased need of CIED.

Do beta-blockers reduce negative intrusive thoughts and anxiety in cancer survivors? - An emulated trial.

BACKGROUND: High rates of negative intrusive thoughts have been reported among cancer patients. Prevalent users of beta-blocker therapy have reported lower levels of cancer related intrusive thoughts than non-user. The aim of this study is to investigate if initiation of beta-blocker therapy reduces the prevalence and severity of intrusive thoughts (co-primary endpoints) and the prevalence of anxiety, depressed mood, and low quality of life (secondary endpoints) in cancer survivors. METHODS: Data on patient-reported outcomes from three cohort studies of Swedish patients diagnosed with colon, prostate or rectal cancer were combined with data on beta-blocker prescriptions retrieved from the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register. Two randomized controlled trials were emulated. Trial 1 had follow-up 1 year after diagnosis, trial 2 had follow-up 2 years after diagnosis, baseline in both trials was 12 months before follow-up. Those who initiated beta-blocker therapy between baseline and follow-up was assigned Active group, those who did not was assigned Control group. All endpoints were analysed using Bayesian ordered logistic regression. RESULTS: Trial 1 consisted of Active group, n = 59, and Control group, n = 3936. Trial 2 consisted of Active group, n = 87, and Control group, n = 3132. The majority of participants were men, 83% in trial 1 and 94% in trial 2. The prevalence and severity of intrusive thoughts were lower in the Active group in trial 1, but no significant differences between groups were found in either trial. The prevalence of depressed mood, worse quality of life and periods of anxiety were higher in the Active group in both trials with significant differences for quality of life in trial 1 and anxiety in trial 2. CONCLUSIONS: The emulated trials demonstrated no evidence of a protective effect of beta-blocker therapy against intrusive thoughts. The Active group had reduced quality of life and elevated anxiety compared to the Control group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The three cohort studies were registered at isrctn.com/clinicaltrials.gov (ISRCTN06393679, NCT02530593 and NCT01477229).

Probabilistic precision calculations for the planning of studies assessing negative binomial rates.

PURPOSE: Outcome variables that are assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution are frequently used in both clinical and epidemiological studies. Epidemiological studies, particularly those performed by pharmaceutical companies often aim to describe a population rather than compare treatments. Such descriptive studies are often analysed using confidence intervals. While precision calculations and sample size calculations are not always performed in these settings, they have the important role of setting expectations of what results the study may generate. Current methods for precision calculations for the negative binomial rate are based on plugging in parameter values into the confidence interval formulae. This method has the downside of ignoring the randomness of the confidence interval limits. To enable better practice for precision calculations, methods are needed that address the randomness. METHODS: Using the well-known delta-method we develop a method for calculating the precision probability, that is, the probability of achieving a certain width. We assess the performance of the method in smaller samples through simulations. RESULTS: The method for the precision probability performs well in small to medium sample sizes, and the usefulness of the method is demonstrated through an example. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a simple method for calculating the precision probability for negative binomial rates. This method can be used when planning epidemiological studies in for example, asthma, while correctly taking the randomness of confidence intervals into account.

Digital twins and Bayesian dynamic borrowing: Two recent approaches for incorporating historical control data.

Recent years have seen an increasing interest in incorporating external control data for designing and evaluating randomized clinical trials (RCT). This may decrease costs and shorten inclusion times by reducing sample sizes. For small populations, with limited recruitment, this can be especially important. Bayesian dynamic borrowing (BDB) has been a popular choice as it claims to protect against potential prior data conflict. Digital twins (DT) has recently been proposed as another method to utilize historical data. DT, also known as PROCOVA™, is based on constructing a prognostic score from historical control data, typically using machine learning. This score is included in a pre-specified ANCOVA as the primary analysis of the RCT. The promise of this idea is power increase while guaranteeing strong type 1 error control. In this paper, we apply analytic derivations and simulations to analyze and discuss examples of these two approaches. We conclude that BDB and DT, although similar in scope, have fundamental differences which need be considered in the specific application. The inflation of the type 1 error is a serious issue for BDB, while more evidence is needed of a tangible value of DT for real RCTs.

Do You Want to Stay Single? Considerations on Single-Arm Trials in Drug Development and the Postregulatory Space.

Single-arm trials (SATs), while not preferred, remain in use throughout the drug development cycle. They may be accepted by regulators in particular contexts (e.g., in oncology or rare diseases) when the potential effects of new treatments are very large and placebo treatment is unethical. However, in the postregulatory space, SATs are common, and perhaps even more poorly suited to address the questions of interest. In this manuscript, we review regulatory and HTA positions on SATs; challenges posed by SATs to address research questions beyond regulators, evolving statistical methods to provide context for SATs, case studies where SATs could and could not address questions of interest, and communication strategies to influence decision making and optimize study design to address evidence needs.

Risk of fracture in adults with type 2 diabetes in Sweden: A national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is considered a risk factor for fracture but the evidence regarding the impact of T2DM on fracture risk is conflicting. The objective of the study was to determine if patients with T2DM have increased fracture risk and if T2DM-related risk factors could be identified. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this national cohort study in Sweden, we investigated the risk of fracture in 580,127 T2DM patients, identified through the national diabetes register including from both primary care and hospitals, and an equal number of population-based controls without diabetes matched for age, sex, and county from 2007 to 2017. The mean age at entry was 66.7 years and 43.6% were women. During a median follow-up time of 6.6 (interquartile range (IQR) 3.1 to 9.8) years, patients with T2DM had a marginally but significantly increased risk of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00 to 1.03)) and hip fracture (HR 1.06 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.08)) compared to controls, associations that were only minimally affected (HR 1.05 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.06) and HR 1.11 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.14), respectively) by multivariable adjustment (age, sex, marital status, and an additional 20 variables related to general morbidity, cardiovascular status, risk of falls, and fracture). In a multivariable-adjusted Cox model, the proportion of the risk for all fracture outcomes (Heller's R2) explained by T2DM was below 0.1%. Among the T2DM patients, important risk factors for fracture were a low BMI (<25 kg/m2), long diabetes duration (≥15 years), insulin treatment, and low physical activity. In total, 55% of the T2DM patients had none of these risk factors and a significantly lower fracture risk than their respective controls. The relatively short mean duration of T2DM and lack of bone density data, constitute limitations of the analysis. CONCLUSION: In this study, we observed only a marginally increased fracture risk in T2DM, a condition that explained less than 0.1% of the fracture risk. Consideration of the herein identified T2DM-related risk factors could be used to stratify T2DM patients according to fracture risk.

Occupational role and COVID-19 among foreign-born healthcare workers in Sweden: a registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: Many studies report that foreign-born healthcare workers (HCWs) in high-income countries have an elevated risk of COVID-19. However, research has not yet specifically evaluated the distribution of COVID-19 among foreign-born workers in different healthcare work groups. We examined the risk of COVID-19 infection and hospitalization among foreign-born HCWs in different occupational roles in Sweden. METHODS: We linked occupational data (2019) of 783 950 employed foreign-born workers (20-65 years) to COVID-19 data registered between 1 January 2020 and 30 September 2021. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of COVID-19 infection and hospitalization in eight healthcare occupational groups vs. non-HCWs and assessed whether region of birth modified the association between healthcare occupations and COVID-19. RESULTS: All HCWs had a higher risk of COVID-19 outcomes than non-HCWs, but the risk differed by occupational role. Hospital-based assistant nurses had the highest risk (infection: HR 1.78; 95% CI 1.72-1.85; hospitalization: HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.52-2.11); allied HCWs had the lowest risk (infection: HR 1.22; 95% CI 1.10-1.35; hospitalization: HR 0.98; 95% CI 0.59-1.63). The relative hazard of the outcomes varied across foreign-born workers from different regions. For example, the relative risk of COVID-19 infection associated with being a physician compared to a non-HCW was 31% higher for African-born than European-born workers. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of COVID-19 among foreign-born HCWs differed by occupational role and immigrant background. Public health efforts that target occupational exposures as well as incorporate culturally responsive measures may help reduce COVID-19 risk among foreign-born HCWs.

HbA1c variability predicts cardiovascular complications in type 2 diabetes regardless of being at glycemic target.

BACKGROUND: HbA1c variability has emerged as risk factor for cardiovascular diseases in diabetes. However, the impact of HbA1c variability on cardiovascular diseases in subjects within the recommended HbA1c target has been relatively unexplored. METHODS: Using data from a large database, we studied 101,533 people with type 2 diabetes without cardiovascular diseases. HbA1c variability was expressed as quartiles of the standard deviation of HbA1c during three years (exposure phase). The primary composite outcome included non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, all-cause mortality and was assessed during five years following the first three years of exposure to HbA1c variability (longitudinal phase). An expanded composite outcome including non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, coronary revascularization/reperfusion procedures, peripheral revascularization procedures, and all-cause mortality was also considered, as well as a series of specific cardiovascular complications. Cox models were adjusted for a large range of risk factors and results were expressed as adjusted hazard ratios. RESULTS: An association between HbA1c variability and all the outcomes considered was found. The correlation between HbA1c variability and cardiovascular complications development was confirmed in both the subgroups of subjects with a mean HbA1c ≤ 53 mmol/mol (recommended HbA1c target) or > 53 mmol/mol during the exposure phase. The risk related to HbA1c variability was higher in people with mean HbA1c ≤ 53 mmol/mol for the primary outcome (p for interaction 0.004), for the expanded secondary outcome (p for interaction 0.001) and for the stroke (p for interaction 0.001), even though HbA1c remained at the target during the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that HbA1c variability may provide additional information for an optimized management of diabetes, particularly in people within the target of HbA1c.

The comparative cardiovascular and renal effectiveness of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists: A Scandinavian cohort study.

AIM: To assess the comparative cardiovascular and renal effectiveness of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors versus glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists in routine clinical practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cohort study of nationwide registers from Sweden, Denmark, and Norway, including 87 525 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors and 63 921 new users of GLP-1 receptor agonists, was conducted using data from 2013-2018. Co-primary outcomes, analysed using an intention-to-treat exposure definition, were major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death), heart failure (hospitalization or death because of heart failure), and serious renal events (renal replacement therapy, hospitalization for renal events, and death from renal causes). RESULTS: Use of SGLT2 inhibitors versus GLP-1 receptor agonists was associated with a higher risk of MACE (adjusted incidence rate: 15.2 vs. 14.4 events per 1000 person-years; HR 1.07 [95% CI 1.01-1.15]), a similar risk of heart failure (6.0 vs. 6.0 events per 1000 person-years; HR 1.02 [0.92-1.12]), and a lower risk of serious renal events (2.9 vs. 4.0 events per 1000 person-years; HR 0.76 [0.66-0.87]). In as-treated analyses, the HR (95% CI) was 1.11 (1.00-1.24) for MACE, 0.88 (0.74-1.04) for heart failure, and 0.60 (0.47-0.77) for serious renal events. In secondary outcome analyses, use of SGLT2 inhibitors versus GLP-1 receptor agonists was not associated with statistically significant differences for the risk of myocardial infarction (HR 1.09 [95% CI 1.00-1.19]), cardiovascular death (HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.84-1.12]), death from renal causes (HR 0.75 [95% CI 0.41-1.35]), or any cause death (HR 1.01 [95% CI 0.94-1.09]), while the risk of stroke was higher (HR 1.14 [95% CI 1.03-1.26]), and the risk of renal replacement therapy (HR 0.74 [95% CI 0.56-0.97]) and hospitalization for renal events (HR 0.75 [95% CI 0.65-0.88]) were lower among users of SGLT2 inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: Use of SGLT2 inhibitors versus GLP-1 receptor agonists was associated with a similar risk of heart failure and a lower risk of serious renal events, while use of GLP-1 receptor agonists versus SGLT2 inhibitors was associated with a slightly lower risk of MACE. In as-treated analyses, the associations with MACE and serious renal events increased in magnitude, and the HR for heart failure tended towards a protective association for SGLT2 inhibitors.

Classical Model of Surface Enhanced Infrared Absorption (SEIRA) Spectroscopy.

The molecule-plasmon interaction is the key to the mechanisms of surface enhanced infrared absorption (SEIRA) and surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS). Since plasmons are well described by Maxwell's equations, one fundamental treatment involves the classical interpretation of infrared absorption and resonance Raman spectroscopies. We can understand the molecule-plasmon interaction using electromagnetic theory if the classical field effect on a transition dipole moment or transition polarizability is properly described. In previous work, we derived the Raman excitation profile of a model molecule using a classical driven spring attached to a charged mass with a perturbative force constant due to vibrational oscillations. In this study we generalize the interactions of plasmons with molecules by considering the N2O asymmetric stretch SEIRA signal on a Dy doped CdO (CdO:Dy) film. This semiconductor has tunable plasmon dispersion curves throughout the near-and mid-infrared that can interact directly with vibrational absorption transitions. We have demonstrated this using the Kretschmann configuration with a CaF2 prism and a MgO substrate. The model predicts the phase behavior of SEIRA. The calculated enhancement factor relative to an Au control is 6.2, in good agreement with the value of 6.8 ± 0.5 measured under the same conditions.

Weighted blanket and sleep medication use among adults with psychiatric diagnosis - a population-based register study.

OBJECTIVE: To measure rate of subscription of common sleep medication and diagnoses of substance use disorder (SUD) before and after receiving a prescribed weighted blanket (WB) among patients with psychiatric diagnoses. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using register-based data of health-related factors in a Swedish region, a total of 1785 adult individuals with a psychiatric diagnosis, received a WB and resided in the region during the study period were identified. Using each individual as their own control, the rate of one-year prior prescription of WB or diagnosed SUD was compared to rate after a half year wash-out after prescription of WB for a full year. RESULTS: The number of patients without prescription of sleep medication increased by 3.3% (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.2-6.4, p=.04). Furthermore, the proportion without a prescription of benzodiazepine receptor agonist/antihistamines sleep medication increased by 5.5% (95%CI: 2.2-8.8, p=.001). Melatonin prescription increased after WB by 3.6% (95%CI: 1.1-6.2, p=.006). Younger age and unipolar-, anxiety-, attention-deficit/hyperactivity-, and post-traumatic stress disorder was associated with decreased use while psychotic-/bipolar- and personality disorder was not associated with a decrease in the use of sleep medication. The number of alcohol SUD diagnoses did not increase while sedative SUD rate increased statistically significantly by 0.7% (odds ratio = 1.63, p=.02). In a multivariate model, only younger age predicted discontinuation of sleep medication while psychotic-/bipolar- and personality disorder had statistically less decrease. CONCLUSION: This observational register study found a statistically significant association between WB use and decreased use of common sleep medication except melatonin that increased slightly.

Effect of flash glucose monitoring in adults with type 1 diabetes: a nationwide, longitudinal observational study of 14,372 flash users compared with 7691 glucose sensor naive controls.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to evaluate changes in glycaemic control (HbA1c) and rates of severe hypoglycaemia over a 2 year period after initiation of flash glucose monitoring (FM) in type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Using data from the Swedish National Diabetes Registry, 14,372 adults with type 1 diabetes with a new registration of FM during 2016-2017 and with continued FM for two consecutive years thereafter, and 7691 control individuals using conventional self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) during the same observation period, were included in a cohort study. Propensity sores and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) were used to balance FM users with SMBG users. Changes in HbA1c and events of severe hypoglycaemia were compared. RESULTS: After the start of FM, the difference in IPTW change in HbA1c was slightly greater in FM users compared with the control group during the follow-up period, with an estimated mean absolute difference of -1.2 mmol/mol (-0.11%) (95% CI -1.64 [-0.15], -0.75 [-0.07]; p < 0.0001) after 15-24 months. The change in HbA1c was greatest in those with baseline HbA1c ≥70 mmol/mol (8.5%), with the estimated mean absolute difference being -2.5 mmol/mol (-0.23%) (95% CI -3.84 [-0.35], -1.18 [-0.11]; p = 0.0002) 15-24 months post index. The change was also significant in the subgroups with initial HbA1c ≤52 mmol/mol (6.9%) and 53-69 mmol/mol (7.0-8.5%). Risk of severe hypoglycaemic episodes was reduced by 21% for FM users compared with control individuals using SMBG (OR 0.79 [95% CI 0.69, 0.91]; p = 0.0014)]. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this large cohort, the use of FM was associated with a small and sustained improvement in HbA1c, most evident in those with higher baseline HbA1c levels. In addition, FM users experienced lower rates of severe hypoglycaemic events compared with control individuals using SMBG for self-management of glucose control.

Comparison between data-driven clusters and models based on clinical features to predict outcomes in type 2 diabetes: nationwide observational study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Research using data-driven cluster analysis has proposed five novel subgroups of diabetes based on six measured variables in individuals with newly diagnosed diabetes. Our aim was (1) to validate the existence of differing clusters within type 2 diabetes, and (2) to compare the cluster method with an alternative strategy based on traditional methods to predict diabetes outcomes. METHODS: We used data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register and included 114,231 individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes. k-means clustering was used to identify clusters based on nine continuous variables (age at diagnosis, HbA1c, BMI, systolic and diastolic BP, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol, triacylglycerol and eGFR). The elbow method was used to determine the optimal number of clusters and Cox regression models were used to evaluate mortality risk and risk of CVD events. The prediction models were compared using concordance statistics. RESULTS: The elbow plot, with values of k ranging from 1 to 10, showed a smooth curve without any clear cut-off points, making the optimal value of k unclear. The appearance of the plot was very similar to the elbow plot made from a simulated dataset consisting only of one cluster. In prediction models for mortality, concordance was 0.63 (95% CI 0.63, 0.64) for two clusters, 0.66 (95% CI 0.65, 0.66) for four clusters, 0.77 (95% CI 0.76, 0.77) for the ordinary Cox model and 0.78 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) for the Cox model with smoothing splines. In prediction models for CVD events, the concordance was 0.64 (95% CI 0.63, 0.65) for two clusters, 0.66 (95% CI 0.65, 0.67) for four clusters, 0.77 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) for the ordinary Cox model and 0.78 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) for the Cox model with splines for all variables. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This nationwide observational study found no evidence supporting the existence of a specific number of distinct clusters within type 2 diabetes. The results from this study suggest that a prediction model approach using simple clinical features to predict risk of diabetes complications would be more useful than a cluster sub-stratification.

Use of incretin-based drugs and risk of cholangiocarcinoma: Scandinavian cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Concerns have been raised regarding a potential association of use of the incretin-based drugs dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1)-receptor agonists with risk of cholangiocarcinoma. We examined this association in nationwide data from three countries. METHODS: We used data from nationwide registers in Sweden, Denmark and Norway, 2007-2018, to conduct two cohort studies, one for DPP4 inhibitors and one for GLP-1-receptor agonists, to investigate the risk of incident cholangiocarcinoma compared with an active-comparator drug class (sulfonylureas). The cohorts included patients initiating treatment episodes with DPP4 inhibitors vs sulfonylureas, and GLP-1-receptor agonists vs sulfonylureas. We used Cox regression models, adjusted for potential confounders, to estimate hazard ratios from day 366 after treatment initiation to account for cancer latency. RESULTS: The main analyses of DPP4 inhibitors included 1,414,144 person-years of follow-up from 222,577 patients receiving DPP4 inhibitors (median [IQR] follow-up time, 4.5 [2.6-7.0] years) and 123,908 patients receiving sulfonylureas (median [IQR] follow-up time, 5.1 [2.9-7.8] years) during which 350 cholangiocarcinoma events occurred. Use of DPP4 inhibitors, compared with sulfonylureas, was not associated with a statistically significant increase in risk of cholangiocarcinoma (incidence rate 26 vs 23 per 100,000 person-years; adjusted HR, 1.15 [95% CI 0.90, 1.46]; absolute rate difference 3 [95% CI -3, 10] events per 100,000 person-years). The main analyses of GLP-1-receptor agonists included 1,036,587 person-years of follow-up from 96,813 patients receiving GLP-1-receptor agonists (median [IQR] follow-up time, 4.4 [2.4-6.9] years) and 142,578 patients receiving sulfonylureas (median [IQR] follow-up time, 5.5 [3.2-8.1] years) during which 249 cholangiocarcinoma events occurred. Use of GLP-1-receptor agonists was not associated with a statistically significant increase in risk of cholangiocarcinoma (incidence rate 26 vs 23 per 100,000 person-years; adjusted HR, 1.25 [95% CI 0.89, 1.76]; absolute rate difference 3 [95% CI -5, 13] events per 100,000 patient-years). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this analysis using nationwide data from three countries, use of DPP4 inhibitors and GLP-1-receptor agonists, compared with sulfonylureas, was not associated with a significantly increased risk of cholangiocarcinoma.

Development and validation of a cardiovascular risk prediction model in type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to report current rates of CVD in type 1 diabetes and to develop a CVD risk prediction tool for type 1 diabetes. METHODS: A cohort of 27,527 people with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD was derived from the national register in Scotland. Incident CVD events during 199,552 person-years of follow-up were ascertained using hospital admissions and death registers. A Poisson regression model of CVD was developed and then validated in the Swedish National Diabetes Register (n = 33,183). We compared the percentage with a high 10 year CVD risk (i.e., ≥10%) using the model with the percentage eligible for statins using current guidelines by age. RESULTS: The age-standardised rate of CVD per 100,000 person-years was 4070 and 3429 in men and women, respectively, with type 1 diabetes in Scotland, and 4014 and 3956 in men and women in Sweden. The final model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test p > 0.05) and included a further 22 terms over a base model of age, sex and diabetes duration (C statistic 0.82; 95% CI 0.81, 0.83). The model increased the base model C statistic from 0.66 to 0.80, from 0.60 to 0.75 and from 0.62 to 0.68 in those aged <40, 40-59 and ≥ 60 years, respectively (all p values <0.005). The model required minimal calibration in Sweden and had a C statistic of 0.85. Under current guidelines, >90% of those aged 20-39 years and 100% of those ≥40 years with type 1 diabetes were eligible for statins, but it was not until age 65 upwards that 100% had a modelled risk of CVD ≥10% in 10 years. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: A prediction tool such as that developed here can provide individualised risk predictions. This 10 year CVD risk prediction tool could facilitate patient discussions regarding appropriate statin prescribing. Apart from 10 year risk, such discussions may also consider longer-term CVD risk, the potential for greater benefits from early vs later statin intervention, the potential impact on quality of life of an early CVD event and evidence on safety, all of which could influence treatment decisions, particularly in younger people with type 1 diabetes.

Risk Factors, Mortality, and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Patients with diabetes are at higher risk for death and cardiovascular outcomes than the general population. We investigated whether the excess risk of death and cardiovascular events among patients with type 2 diabetes could be reduced or eliminated. METHODS: In a cohort study, we included 271,174 patients with type 2 diabetes who were registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register and matched them with 1,355,870 controls on the basis of age, sex, and county. We assessed patients with diabetes according to age categories and according to the presence of five risk factors (elevated glycated hemoglobin level, elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, albuminuria, smoking, and elevated blood pressure). Cox regression was used to study the excess risk of outcomes (death, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure) associated with smoking and the number of variables outside target ranges. We also examined the relationship between various risk factors and cardiovascular outcomes. RESULTS: The median follow-up among all the study participants was 5.7 years, during which 175,345 deaths occurred. Among patients with type 2 diabetes, the excess risk of outcomes decreased stepwise for each risk-factor variable within the target range. Among patients with diabetes who had all five variables within target ranges, the hazard ratio for death from any cause, as compared with controls, was 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.12), the hazard ratio for acute myocardial infarction was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.93), and the hazard ratio for stroke was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.07). The risk of hospitalization for heart failure was consistently higher among patients with diabetes than among controls (hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.34 to 1.57). In patients with type 2 diabetes, a glycated hemoglobin level outside the target range was the strongest predictor of stroke and acute myocardial infarction; smoking was the strongest predictor of death. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with type 2 diabetes who had five risk-factor variables within the target ranges appeared to have little or no excess risk of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, as compared with the general population. (Funded by the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions and others.).

Variability in body weight and the risk of cardiovascular complications in type 2 diabetes: results from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.

BACKGROUND: There is a high incidence of cardiovascular disease in diabetes. Weight variability has been reported as independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease in the general population and preliminarily also in people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Using data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register the possible link between visit-to-visit body weight variability and the risk of cardiovascular complications among people with type 2 diabetes and without prevalent cardiovascular diseases at baseline has been evaluated. Overall, 100,576 people with type 2 diabetes, with at least five measurements of body weight taken over three consecutive years, were included. Variability was expressed as quartiles of the standard deviation of the measures during the three years. The primary composite outcome included non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and all-cause mortality and was assessed during five years following the first 3 years of exposure to weight variability. RESULTS: After adjusting for known cardiovascular risk factors, the risk of the primary composite outcome significantly increased with increasing body weight variability [upper quartile HR = 1.45; 95% confidence interval 1.39-1.52]. Furthermore, elevated body weight variability was associated with almost all the other cardiovascular complications considered (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, all-cause mortality, peripheral arterial disease, peripheral vascular angioplasty, hospitalization for heart failure, foot ulcer, and all-cause mortality). CONCLUSIONS: High body weight variability predicts the development of cardiovascular complications in type 2 diabetes. These data suggest that any strategy to reduce the body weight in these subjects should be aimed at maintaining the reduction in the long-term, avoiding oscillations.

Cardiorenal and other diabetes related outcomes with SGLT-2 inhibitors compared to GLP-1 receptor agonists in type 2 diabetes: nationwide observational study.

BACKGROUND: Major prospective randomized clinical safety trials have demonstrated beneficial effects of treatment with glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) and sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i) in people with type 2 diabetes and elevated cardiovascular risk, and recent clinical treatment guidelines therefore promote early use of these classes of pharmacological agents. In this Swedish nationwide observational study, we compared cardiorenal outcomes and safety of new treatment with GLP-1RA and SGLT-2i in people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We linked data from national Swedish databases to capture patient characteristics and outcomes and used propensity-score based matching to account for differences between the two groups. The treatments were compared using Cox regression models. RESULTS: We identified 9648 participants starting GLP-1RA and 12,097 starting SGLT-2i with median follow-up times 1.7 and 1.1 years, respectively. The proportion of patients with a history of MACE were 15.8%, and 17.0% in patients treated with GLP-1RA and SGLT-2i, respectively. The mean age was 61 years with 7.6 years duration of diabetes. Mean HbA1c were 8.3% (67.6 mmol/mol) and 8.3% (67.2 mmol/mol), and mean BMI 33.3 and 32.5 kg/m2 in patients treated with GLP-1RA or SGLT-2i, respectively. The cumulative mortality risk was non-significantly lower in the group treated with SGLT-2i, HR 0.78 (95% CI 0.61-1.01), as were incident heart failure outcomes, but the risks of cardiovascular or renal outcomes did not differ. The risks of stroke and peripheral artery disease were higher in the SGLT-2i group relative to GLP-1RA, with HR 1.44 (95% CI 0.99-2.08) and 1.68 (95% CI 1.04-2.72), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study suggests that treatment with GLP-1RA and SGLT-2i result in very similar cardiorenal outcomes. In the short term, treatment with GLP-1RA seem to be associated with lower risks of stroke and peripheral artery disease, whereas SGLT-2i seem to be nominally associated with lower risk of heart failure and total mortality.

Estimated glucose disposal rate and risk of stroke and mortality in type 2 diabetes: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Insulin resistance contributes to the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and is also a cardiovascular risk factor. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential association between insulin resistance measured by estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) and risk of stroke and mortality thereof in people with T2D. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nationwide population based observational cohort study that included all T2D patients from the Swedish national diabetes registry between 2004 and 2016 with full data on eGDR and categorised as following: < 4, 4-6, 6-8, and ≥ 8 mg/kg/min. We calculated crude incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and used multiple Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) to assess the association between the risk of stroke and death, according to the eGDR categories in which the lowest category < 4 (i.e., highest grade of insulin resistance), served as a reference. The relative importance attributed of each factor in the eGDR formula was measured by the R2 (± SE) values calculating the explainable log-likelihoods in the Cox regression. RESULTS: A total of 104 697 T2D individuals, 44.5% women, mean age of 63 years, were included. During a median follow up-time of 5.6 years, 4201 strokes occurred (4.0%). After multivariate adjustment the HRs (95% CI) for stroke in patients with eGDR categories between 4-6, 6-8 and > 8 were: 0.77 (0.69-0.87), 0.68 (0.58-0.80) and 0.60 (0.48-0.76), compared to the reference < 4. Corresponding numbers for the risk of death were: 0.82 (0.70-0.94), 0.75 (0.64-0.88) and 0.68 (0.53-0.89). The attributed relative risk R2 (± SE) for each variable in the eGDR formula and stroke was for: hypertension (0.045 ± 0.0024), HbA1c (0.013 ± 0.0014), and waist (0.006 ± 0.0009), respectively. CONCLUSION: A low eGDR (a measure of insulin resistance) is associated with an increased risk of stroke and death in individuals with T2D. The relative attributed risk was most important for hypertension.